SPX 1450 before a 'meaningful' pullback? Sure, markets move in mysterious ways, but another +10% move straight up from here would require some serious horsepower. With J6P sitting in cash and/or bonds and driving past empty storefronts on his way to a job he hopes to keep, I think the indexes will struggle to keep climbing. No, I think there will be a pullback, followed by sector rotation- into financials, the Eurozone, and China. As the global economy begins to recover in the Year of the Dragon, money will finally begin flowing out of bonds, back into stocks.
I never discount the role luck plays in trading. I am fortunate to have already seen a +10% gain in the 2-week rally that began before Thanksgiving- a completely unexpected bonus following my exit at the end of the +20% rally in October- which then allowed me to reopen all positions into the -10% 'pause that refreshes.' That was followed by a one-day blip of bad luck- a momentary red/black decision while stuck on the road that resulted in being left out of a further +3-5%.
At the end of the day, it's probably 50/50 luck/skill that determines our ultimate bottom line. Re the next twelve months, your guess is as good as mine. The last 'Dragon' was 2000- surely not a good year for most. Before that, 1988- the year the markets recovered from the '87 Crash. Best to all for 2012!
Funny how quickly things change: I decided to cash in my TZOO at $28.78 and my SORL at $2.94...to be honest I was surprised to see SORL absorb my 10k shs so easily. It's probably going higher. I'm also planning on re-entering TZOO very soon. I rotated some of the SORL $$ into DTLK again at $8.93.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the move to 1,500 will be a straight line, but rather a two steps forward one step back move higher throughout the year. I think we will pause at 1,370 for a small bit but then power higher. I'm not really expecting more than a 3 to 5% pull back the whole way higher.
tof- I would consider a -5% pullback to be 'meaningful.' After all, that would take us back to SPX 1250, or DJIA 12100. On an intraday basis, both indexes may drop even further- say, 1220 or 11900. It's all relative- I'm happy with 5-10% a year, so I would certainly take advantage of a 3-5% drop.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, I'm tempted to say we've seen the 2012 highs for this winter. They may remain unchallenged until spring.
ReplyDeleteKudos to jesse for going all-in on UNG last Friday.
ReplyDeleteLong BGU at $69.16
ReplyDeleteSPY at support from Thur and Fri...I'm using BGU as a short term trade here...like the market to bounce into the big Obama speech tomorrow night.
ReplyDeleteAlso added to my SKUL at $12.66
ReplyDeleteCrude and Copper higher...I think this selloff stalls.
ReplyDeleteToday is a pretty negative day for DANG....could have seen a short term top in that sucker on Friday...
ReplyDeleteDang, I finally made a good play on DANG- by staying away.
ReplyDeletePutting in a sell order on BGU at $70
ReplyDeletePEIX looks great
ReplyDeleteDANG: This is just a knock out move. See Stephen Stewart's JOB caveat on his chart for DANG. This is par for the course with a stock with this much overhead and a pretty big run in the market. As 2nd pointed out, we've used a lot of fuel and exhaustion/rest is to be expected. MITK did the same thing.
ReplyDeleteProvided we see a reassertion of the trend in 9 days or less this will be a Landry set-up guaranteed.
EXM has underperformed the rest of the shippers...I think EXM might be worth a trade here.
ReplyDeleteCraig- At what point during a knock-out move would someone open a position?
ReplyDeleteTwiggs today: "The S&P 500 breakout above 1300 suggests a primary advance to 1450*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure."
ReplyDeleteThis is just a breather at the top of a very steep hill. That and the European cheerleader, water and food pit stop team is busy arguing over who is paying for the water.
You wait for it to move up again, so price confirms the trend. "Textbook" *safe* entry would be a few pennies above today's open, but some traders might want to get in sooner. Other obvious entries would be about $7.30 (Friday's open) and $7.54 (Friday's close. Friday's weak close was the warning. If it corrects for a few more days, then each daily bar might change the entry as they move lower. I suspect this won't last too long as this stock has moved pretty quickly from 4.14 or so. It's only been a little over a month. Even if you got in today the intraday low would make a good stop.
ReplyDeleteAll the knockout is is exhaustion. Your earlier statement about staying away is a perfect example of the psychology of a knockout. you guys would say weak hands are getting shaken out, which is really what it is. Then buyers (usually dip buyers) step in and it continues up (ideally). Dave is big on waiting, as waiting for the trend resumption can keep you out of bad trades. Notice he stays away from breakouts.
Stop on BGU at $69.33 to lock in a $100 gain.
ReplyDeletemy condolences to the 49ers fans here...as a Jets fan there's really nothing I hate to see more than the Pats and Giants in the Super Bowl.
ReplyDelete"Good indicator for ECU which has better resources, just not as well developed."
ReplyDeleteBB -- there is no more ECU around. And I hope all majors keep their hands off AUMN, as I am waiting for it to run up to $50 in 2013 and $100 in 2015!
canceled my sell on BGU at $70 and will just move up the stop again to $69.45
ReplyDeleteSold my BGU at $69.86 and bought more SKUL at $12.65.
ReplyDeleteit was easy to see that SORL had higher to go...I sold 10k shs at above the bid price earlier and they just gobbled up my shares in a second. It's in beast mode.
ReplyDeleteSold my DTLK at $9.13.
ReplyDeleteNice trading, tof!
ReplyDeleteWow...SKUL just took off. Someone gobbled up 20k shs. Maybe it's the 60% shorts...
ReplyDeleteTook off about 10% of my SKUL at $13.1
ReplyDeleteA slightly different perspective on DANG, et al.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/11382016/1/a-dose-of-reality-needed-for-china-fever.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
BRUCE KRASTING has an interesting take on the Fed speak that will occur on Wed afternoon and what it could mean for the markets.
ReplyDelete"The Federal Reserve will make a series of statements while unveiling its new communication effort. A portion of the new information will be contained in the revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)."
http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/
UNG was a great setup man. That's the perfect example of oversold. RSI(7) reached 9. SJT's RSI(7) reached 4, which is almost unheard of. It's funny how many different trades are out there:
ReplyDelete1.) Completely oversold and hated stocks with long bases that show some hints of buying volume like DANG, IRE, SORL, OMX, BAC
2.) Stocks with massive short positions like OPEN, TZOO, SKUL, MITK
3.) Stocks with panic selling like SJT, UNG, etc.
If you know how the chart is setting up it's a good key as to where you should buy. Knowing the story is key too...
2nd - for what its worth this Rick Pearson went to China and visited with many heads of companies and even recommended buying them and they turned out to be frauds. Its obviously hard to know what's what over there.
ReplyDeleteBruce Kasting's article seems a bit biased to me. Nowhere does he mention valuations of companies which drives the direction of the stock market way more than economic growth. I posted an article from ETrade a while ago that showed the correlation between GDP growth and stock market performance across many countries and it basically showed how there is little correlation between strong GDP growth and big stock market gains and vice versa.
ReplyDeleteAlso, this guy suggests that there are only two outcomes to the Fed meeting: they expand balance sheet and stocks rocket or they don't and stocks crash. Sounds a lot like the whole "stocks are only rising because the dollar is falling crowd". If so, I wonder what his take is on that correlation since August.
Hussman is preparing to throw in the towel on his recession call:
ReplyDelete"The interpretation best supported by the data is that recession risk remains very high based on the leading evidence and the typical outcomes that have resulted, but that the rate of deterioration has eased significantly, and it is simply unclear whether this is a temporary pause or a reversal. Rather than overstating the case one way or another, we remain strongly concerned about recession risk, but recognize the recent stabilization and the potential for a low-level continuation of that. On the indicator front, the economic data over the coming week could be informative (especially the introduction of the Conference Board's revised LEI, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and unemployment claims), but if the new data also muddles around near the flat-line, it will essentially reinforce the overall view that the global economy is close to slipping into recession, but is at least temporarily stabilizing."
Some astute market observers have pointed out previously that some of the BEST stock market years have occurred when the GDP growth was close to 0 because of the massive stimulus used by the governments and central banks in those years. We may very well get such a year in 2012.
Hey guys...Here but busy. Sold SKUL @ 12.96 for 1.5 grand.
ReplyDeleteDavid - My thoughts exactly. I'm thinking the Lakshman Acuthans or however the hell you spell it will be proven wrong and have to remodel their models. This whole period since 2007 has really thrown a lot of people for a loop but the overriding theme seems to be to do what the fewest people seem to think is likely. Consider that just a handful of years ago there was probably 1/1000th the amount of blogs and media covering the economy as in depth as there are today. That explosion of information is predominantly focused on the past wars we went through and how shitty things are. And I think that has had an impact on the psyche of investors/traders. Fading that sentiment seems to be the right course of action.
ReplyDeletePlaced a buy limit order for 1K more shares of PNPFF at $1.70. I just love that sequence of higher lows since October 4 and a HUGE drop prior to October 4. The long-term downtrend has definitely reversed.
ReplyDeleteThe AUMN chart is quite similar to SORL's.
ReplyDeleteMan I don't know what got into DTLK today but it's going off. I really like the fundamental story behind that company. If you get a chance read up on it. It has the chance to really go berserk in the next year or two...as in like $40 or so...
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/video/11275418/datalink-rising-with-cloud-computing-demand-says-ceo.html?cm_ven=YAHOOV&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA&s=1
ReplyDeleteHeres a good starting point.
The run up in CAAS lasted 5 days (before it flattened out), with the largest gains made in days 4 and 5. Today is day number 3 for SORL.
ReplyDeleteONP, which I piled into at $2.40, also had a 5-day run up and then it also flattened out. My point is, don't expect a large pullback in SORL after this run up is over -- it can just go sideways to consolidate its gains and then have another leg up.
ReplyDeleteung? wow. Great job Jesse.
ReplyDeleteINVN. Damn, this one is just kicking my ass.
ReplyDeleteMark - Don't beat yourself up on that one...see IRE.
ReplyDeleteBut seriously, INVN operates in a VERY competitive industry and from what my brother tells me (he's an electrical engineer working for a startup working in the same space whose founder was the old CEO of 3COM I think) the industry is still very much in the development phase...so INVN could be more hype than anything else.
AUMN closed today above its previous high in early November and basically at the level of its high in early October. Any further upside would mean a break of this resistance level, with the next stop being its resistance at $12, closing the September gap. I currently have 23K shares, and I figured that I will designate 20K shares as my core position that I will hold until it hits $50, and the other 3K shares as a trading portion. So once AUMN reaches $12, I'll sell 10 $12.50 covered calls on it so as to dispose nicely of 1K shares. If it moves further up in a short period of time, I'll sell 10 $15 calls. If any shares are taken away from me, then I'll be waiting for a pullback to the same strike price and then sell 10 puts at that strike. I should take advantage of this being such a volatile stock by selling options on it. While this is a great idea in general, when AUMN dropped below $7.50 I felt that it was so ridiculously cheap that *buying* calls on it was a better deal than selling puts (besides, I had no funds at that point to back up put options). Soon, hopefully, I will get back into my normal trading mode: selling calls on rallies and puts on pullbacks.
ReplyDeleteCSTR poked above the 200 DMA for the first time in a while....i tell ya what...this sucker looks like its ready to fly. Look at the slightly higher lows across the board over the past year. This stock is going to break out of the $40 to $60 range at some point here and my suspicion is it happens possibly on this earnings call. It has to happen when people least expect it.
ReplyDeleteThis year's outlook is grim for the U.S coal industry, which after two years of rising profits has begun closing mines, signaling a new wave of production cutbacks and, possibly, another round of industry consolidation.
ReplyDeleteThe country's biggest coal producers, which begin reporting fourth-quarter results on Tuesday with St. Louis -based Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU), should provide insight into how bad this year could be. Most should meet Wall Street's earnings expectations for the last quarter of 2010 on export gains over a year ago, while tempering investor expectations for 2012, say analysts.
(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal website, WSJ.com.)
The two biggest threats facing U.S. coal companies are the low price of domestic natural gas, which is making thermal coal a less-attractive fuel for their utility-customers, and the shaky economic picture in Europe , which is damping exports of metallurgical coal.
Demand among European steelmakers has fallen off, pushing down the benchmark price for the highest grades of coal by nearly 30% over the past year. Also damping prices is tougher federal emissions rules for U.S. utilities, resulting in more planned closures of coal-fired generating plants and eroding the market for thermal coal.
The industry is "entering a year with an unusual amount of uncertainty," Brett Harvey , chief executive of Pittsburgh -based Consol Energy Inc. (CNX), said earlier this month.
Rival Patriot Coal Corp. (PCX), of St. Louis , idled five coal mines in southern West Virginia that produce metallurgical coal for the steel industry. Chief Executive Rick Whiting said demand for such coal had "trended steadily downward in recent weeks, most notably in the export market." He expects to resume the mine's production "as world economies return to normal growth rates."
More production cuts are expected in Appalachia, which has some of the country's the highest mining costs. Lucas Pipes , a coal analyst with Brean Murray, Carret & Co. , estimates that 20 million tons, or 11% of thermal coal production in the region, which extends from Pennsylvania to Alabama , is currently unprofitable and will have to be trimmed this year. Market conditions could lead to "more rationalization and consolidation" across the industry, he predicted.
The industry has seen a dramatic shift since early last year, when the price for steelmaking coal on the global market hit a record, and companies were expanding production to try to capture growing demand. Several major coal acquisitions, including Alpha Natural Resources Inc.'s (ANR) purchase of Massey Energy for $7.1 billion , were fueled in part by optimism about overseas demand.
ReplyDeleteBut as global demand cooled in recent months and abundant shale-gas reserves pushed natural gas prices lower, investors have punished coal stocks, pushing many down more than 50% from mid-year highs. The deferral of a set of new emissions guidelines in December failed to brighten the outlook, in part because utilities had sizable coal inventories on hand.
A risk for Peabody Energy of St. Louis , the nation's biggest coal company by production, is the drop-off in thermal coal pricing across all U.S. regions, say analysts. But those analysts expect any hit to earnings there to be offset by its operations in Australia , where the company has been expanding aggressively.
"Earnings themselves don't look too bad," said Brean Murray's Mr. Pipes. He expects a 6% sequential increase in fourth-quarter exports of metallurgical coal, solid thermal coal production and sees most companies hitting their sales targets for the quarter. "Investors are more concerned about the outlook for the rest of the year," he said.
Consol Energy , whose underground mines tend to be more automated and lower- cost than many competitors, is maintaining its 2012 production guidance of between 59.5 million tons and 61.5 million tons. It plans to spend $200 million this year at a Virginia mine to boost production by five million tons of crossover coal, which has properties making it suitable for both steelmakers and utilities.
CSTR: My daughter is using the Blockbuster mail service and returning/exchanging through the local BB store, but her local BB is closing and it's in a prime area and only one of two stores in the Tumwater/Olympia/Lacey Washington area. The Lacey store is the location that serves Joint Base Lewis McChord (Fort Lewis/McChord AFB.
ReplyDeleteShe was telling me about the Redbox location she is also using and I suspect if BB is closing locations and moving to a mail/broadband service within DISH that it will leave the physical locations open to RB/CSTR which is essentially labor cost free/low overhead. to get a good idea of what is happening with CSTR I think you need to look at Blockbuster.
CC - You clearly haven't been reading my ridiculously annoying posts over the past 4 months about BB stores closing and their positive impact on Redbox. It's the main reason why I think CSTR is dirt cheap.
ReplyDeleteCC- I'm glad to hear it! I deleted your comment for other reasons, of course. As you know, I believe everything occurs for a reason, and that each time we help someone- however insignificant the gesture may appear at the time- the ultimate positive consequences go far beyond the gesture itself.
ReplyDeletetof- The indexes, as well as CSTR, may indeed move up when investors least expect it. Along the same lines, the most difficult time to exercise patience is when it appears a pullback will never arrive. So we're both in contrarian stances right now- one is active, and one is static.
ReplyDeleteThe last BB is closing here in a month. BB does have their Boxes in Safeway's here.
ReplyDeleteMark - BB has a box in the Von's near us. Maybe I'm biased but their boxes just don't look as good.
ReplyDeleteGood point 2nd. I didn't think of it from that standpoint, but my thinking is that in a period of rising prices more people think there will be a pullback that they can buy in than not, which causes prices to continue to rise.
ReplyDeleteProbably nothing there, but working on CBRX.
ReplyDeletequestion for you guys, at work we use a product called ProphetX from a company called televent. It's a desktop system that shows quotes, streaming news, and charting. We have another group coming into the office called GlobalView. Globalview wants us to use their system. Cost will be the driving factor and I have no idea what we currently pay or what GlobalView would charge.
ReplyDeleteThe charting and news are just benefits of getting the live nymex quotes for natty and crude. I have ThinkOrSwim, Etrade, Fidelity and I've used stockcharts and my favorite charting system is ProphetX. The biggest problem I have with ProphetX is that my profile is on my desktop at work so when I spend all this time creating a natty chart that I think would be interesting to share, I have to remember to email the profile home, sorta like emailing an excel workbook.
Are you guys familiar with any other charting/quoting vendors?
I complained again to one of my IT guys about not being able to pull up TT on explorer. I asked him if I could install firefox on my work desktop and he said sure but IT won't support it if there are any issues. He said he prefers firefox to explorer, interesting. I loaded firefox on my desktop and now I can read TT and follow you guys on my journey to riches and philanthropy.
ReplyDeletePort - I pretty much only use ThinkorSwim. It's good enough for me. I use Stockcharts for things like RSI/moving averages/MACD. I use Morningstar.com for financial info.
ReplyDeleteCheck this out guys... http://www.rexagreement.com/index.php/
ReplyDeletePort- I use lame Schwab, so no help here.
TOF- Why don't you use TOS for all that crap?
ReplyDeleteport- '...journey to riches and philanthropy.' Yes, we need to remember to do something useful with the riches. Have you noticed that rich Scrooges end up with neurotic kids, or end up neurotic themselves? That's the thing with money- it can't be an end in itself- is there anything more pathetic than an old guy counting and hoarding money? Dude- it's all gone the day you pass on. What we take with us is all spiritual- and spiritual riches have nothing to do with money.
ReplyDeleteWhen it comes to charts, I admit to using Yahoo Finance. It's enough for my needs, which is just a quick snapshot of what's happening.
ReplyDeleteFree stock charts is awesome and the price is nice. I have used sierra charts as a trading and chart platform, but free stock charts is more user friendly and intuitive. Data is not always accurate on free stock charts though. My IB trading platform is unbearable. I had fidelity back in the day and I was real happy with it but I cannot remember the charting program because i didn't chart THAT MUCH. I wish IB would buy freestockcharts and integrate it into their trading platform with a DOM and maybe a chart trading program with bracket trades. It would become number one broker in the world. Or should I say more number one.
ReplyDeletethanks guys, you never know who might know what
ReplyDeletephilanthropy - if I ever become slightly rich, and I'm not sure what number that would be for me, I'd live much closer to the med center here in houston and I'd volunteer at Methodist or MD Anderson. I'd have a house with a guest house and I would strongly encourage family and friends to stay with us, especially for those that have to stay a week at a time for daily cancer treatments. I'd leave Texas in May as soon as the kids are out of school and come back reluctantly in August. My summer base would be somewhere between Tillamook and Seaside on the Oregon coast.
There would be the occasional trip to different parts of Europe to meet and get to know the inlaws.
RB - you should suggest that to them. This could be a big m and a year. I'm going to send some energy reports to Mark that he can share with others later. I really like some of the names and I'm banking on some energy merger plays over the next 2 years, especially where natty is concerned.
ReplyDeleteHmmm..I might actually step foot in a SBUX in a pinch if beer is served.
ReplyDeleteNatty mergers...That's what today was all about and what COG was all about last year. I agree, tis the year.
ReplyDeletePort:
ReplyDeleteTradestation for charts. A nice feature is I can get 25K bars for charts and I like that for trading. Company sucks, $115/mo which could get halved if you trade 5000 shares /mo. Easy to do. I have been on this platform over 20 years, so tough to change.
IB to trade on, less than three months on it but like it the best for trade interface. Nice four hour charts.
Fido to trade on, platform is solid, but no futures quotes. Duh. Very good news and research is decent.
2nd - i totally agree man. we started a new tradition in our brand new family this past christmas to volunteer at the homeless shelter for the whole night. talk about quite an experience. very powerful stuff man...stuff that makes you realize how selfish your own life is. speaking of selfish, we need to do it more than once a year.
ReplyDeletewe were also doing a YFriendz program for a couple of years where we would spend time once or twice a month mentoring a kid that had a parent incarcerated. i really liked that because we got close to the kids and got a chance to go to soccer games and help out with homework. unfortunately, the YFriendz program lost funding from the government last year so it had to shut down and we weren't allowed to contact our mentees. here was a local radio interview on the program:
http://www.scpr.org/programs/madeleine-brand/2011/09/30/20892/prison-mentors/
mark - what's TOS?
T3D- Can you explain why you like IB? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Your trading platform...Think Or Swim ...TOS.
ReplyDeleteOh. TOS has fundamental research stuff?
ReplyDeleteBTU - I am a holder. Groan but hope.
ReplyDeleteT3D- Let me say that one of the reasons I would consider IB is the fee structure. I'd love to peel off 100 share lots instead of the 2K I usually do with Schwab and on the thin stuff that changes the order flow.
ReplyDeleteTOS...Hun?? Good charting right? I liked it when I tried it.
ReplyDeletegood stuff, thanks again,
ReplyDeleteTOS=ThinkOrSwim, I like the thinkback function and having the implied volatility show up next to the option quotes. I'm sure others do that as well though. I like etrade because I can pull it up, enter an order and shrink it back down at work. TOS shows up like a beacon on my computer screen at work.
Mark, sent you 4 emails. I think its as good a place as any to start digging for natty mergers.
oh i just took from your post that TOS would be able to do the same thing as morningstar and stockcharts. morningstar has all of the financials.
ReplyDeletedudes- i think i posted about this company a while ago and you bagged on me about how i was gearing up to have a baby (even though you didnt know it at the time but you were right!): SUMR. it just got beat up on an earnings report but the stock still looks good. i see their products whenever i have to go to TGT.
Mark, The trade interface with your quotes is perfect. Click on ask/bid, enter number of shares, transmit and your filled. I sure you could pre-set number of shares but for me it changes based on price. Its the best trade interface I seen and definitely set up for traders.
ReplyDeleteI tried to get Fido to buy TS 20 or so years ago and they bought some other mickey mouse program, forget what its called.
Another advantage of IB free futures quotes, nice. Maybe Robear can chime in. I will say that I think IB is better for 10 plus stocks for comish. Most sub 10 I buy at Fido.
If you are an active trader I would set it up yesterday
Mark, I have not even scratched the surface of what IB can do. I really need to spend more time to learn more.
ReplyDeletei see that all of the brokers are doing a promo where you can roll over your 401k and get some free cash...will have to take advantage of that...
ReplyDeletewell if i get laid off this year I'm switching to IB
ReplyDeletespeaking of products that I like, GoPro, I see it's a private company. The video's are pretty incredible. Garmin should hook up with these guys. I saw one video on youtube where a guy had a camera mounted on the dash of his car. Another car backed into him, the other car's fault. It looked like they were giving him a hard time until he pointed at the camera on his dash. Prediction, I bet you start seeing more peeps with cameras installed on the front and rear of their vehicles. You could probably get a break on insurance too. Or, it could work the other way where your insurance company drops you.
that thing is pretty sick port
ReplyDeleteSUMR has a ton of debt and operates in a very tough environment...
ReplyDeleteany of you cats follow RLD?
ReplyDeleteT3D- Thanks bro.
ReplyDeletePort- GoPro- Is that the 1080P camcorder?
Speaking of CSTR/ DVD's...I heard an interesting report today about rentals. Not accurate #'s but something like DVD rentals down 10% BLURAY up 60%. I'll only watch/buy BLURAY. Nothing even comes close. It will take YEARS to get BLURAY quality over the air. 720P/1080i sucks!!! Just saying.
Catch you guys at the open!
GoPro - 1080 sounds right - they have some cool videos here. I wonder if the shots would be that clear for one of us though. I first saw it at Sun and Ski sports.
ReplyDeletehttp://gopro.com/
CC - what would you consider a breakout on IRE? I'm looking at it being either $6.42 which was the hi on 10/27/11 or $7.10 which is the hi on the gap down day on 10/17/11.
IB has a great short book. I think I can usually short stocks that others cannot. T3d is right about the easiness of placing a trade, too easy for an amateur like me. I have gone the wrong way too many times to tell without being embarrassed. The charts are really hard to look at for an entire day. not sharp,but fuzzy. That is why I used sierra charts which is a front end trading platform and would trade flawlessly through IB. All the other razoo trading companies have a IB frontend also(want Freestock charts to make one). I liked using a DOM or chart and it would execute a predefined bracket trade with one click great for scalping or day trading. IB would get pricey if you are doing blocks over 1000 shares. 10000 shares is $100 round trip. If I was going to change again I would look at option house. I think Dave uses them and they seem to have a nice trading platform. I will stay with IB for the short book though. Do you guys worry about an MF type cluster f--- with your broker. I would think IB, Fidelity and Schwab would be safe, but who knows really?
ReplyDeletePort, IRE is in a transitional move off the bottom right now with a bowtie of the MA's. Ideally I'd like to see a pullback and resumption right where it is now, which would form a handle on the existing cup. To me a breakout is a move above resistance/overhead, which I think is substantial from around $9 to $14. If I could get a pullback here and it resumed up I would be happy to go all in and take partial profits at around 10. Getting to $10 from $6.19 would be a nice move in itself. There is a little blip of overhead at $6.42 and then pretty much free air to $10 or so. There may some issue with that reverse split on 10/17 but technically I think it wouldn't be anything.
ReplyDeleteAm I mistaken or isn't Blu-Ray 1080P? They have 1080P over the air and broadband but it requires real big pipe broadband.
I've had both the old HD DVD format and now Blu-Ray and the the HD DVD didn't have the Blu-Ray capacity but the picture was awesome.
I've been happy with Scottrade. I get $5 trades no matter what size and the real time charting software is surprisingly good. (and free). If I could ask for my ideal it would be Scottrade's system with Telechart's screens (spreadsheet style lists)and TC's capacity to insert the sector line into an individual chart. That would allow me to use Landry's screens and sorts and I could sort entire sectors which would be useful. As it is now I have to set up my own sector lists which took me awhile. Telecharts has the entire tradeable universe already built in.
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeleteif you are waiting for a 5% market pullback, we may not get it. The largest pullback we got in the rise from Sep. 2010 - Feb., 2011 was SPY 4.5% and it only happened once in a 30% uptrend.
A lot of money looking for a pullback here and, with the Economy improving and investors like Hussman starting to change their views and likely buying stocks, pullbacks could be very small for a longer period than you think.
Get a couple of macro things going well and think 2012 could end up being an excellent year.
SDOW - Lowered my stop-limit bid to $23.70
ReplyDeleteWeekly chart on RLD looks just like the other dogs that had a nice long multi-week basing pattern before a spike higher. I think this company makes the technology behind 3d screens. I see Piper Jaffrey recently issued a $22 price target on them.
ReplyDeleteDMND is about to trigger a buy on my weekly chart...
ReplyDeleteSKUL looks really strong today. Dip just about completely bought back.
ReplyDeleteWell I'll be DMND!!!
ReplyDeleteCC- You might be right...but I bet the over air is 1080I not P...at least here.
ReplyDeleteWPRT...Nice.
ReplyDeleteI'd think Blue Ray is 1080P, should be slightly better than interlace although I'm hard-pressed to see any difference myself on my 60hz screen.
ReplyDeleteHave been waiting for this thing to crap the bed before getting the latest and greatest ultra-thin LED, I thought it would've by now but it keeps on running... I'm happy with the pic, couldn't really get appreciably better IMO.
UNG - Hella volume... Lotsa overhead?
ReplyDeleteCP- Your correct. The new 160hz LED's are amazing. You can easily tell the difference.
ReplyDeleteLater gators...
ReplyDeletedamn i think this market ain't gonna pull back here...i was thinking we would have a euphoric rise into the State of the Union and then gap higher and sell off but i really like how its trading leading into it. i think we get a big up day tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteIf SKUL can break above $13.3 it has a good deal more room to the upside. It seems like this level has capped the stock several times in the past month or so.
ReplyDeleteSold another 10% of SKUL at $13.27
ReplyDeleteAnd at $13.3.
ReplyDeleteI see we got a little pullback here, which allowed me to add 1K shares (via the limit order I placed yesterday) of PNPFF at $1.69 to the 1K shares I purchased last week at $1.75. Just placed another buy limit order for 1K shares at $1.60.
ReplyDeletei cant post this morning for some reason...anyway sold another 10% of skul at 13.3 and went to dr for the lil guy and lo and behold the stock dropped! its uncanny how this happens every time!
ReplyDelete...i used some of that to buy noiz strictly for an earnings play which i never do. so i kept it light...2k shs at 8.4
Still messing around with COOL.
ReplyDeleteCOOL...NO, no, that wasn't me.
ReplyDeleteThe CDX.NA.HY spreads have really collapsed since mid-December:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.markit.com/en/products/data/indices/credit-and-loan-indices/cdx/cdx.page?#
This is the kind of environment where the risk is ON and the hot money is "coming out of the closet." Today's small uptick in the spreads is just a blip on the radar. The TED spread is down today.
I just noticed that ONP is having a breakout today. Trying to pick up 1K shares at $4.05...
ReplyDeleteSomebody just moved the bid to $4.06, so I had to hit the ask at $4.07 for 1K shares of ONP. I think ONP will hit $6 pretty soon.
ReplyDeleteFolks, SVM is the next one to break out. It has underperformed GDXJ over the past 3 months, but this will be reversed soon by the hedge funds rotating from winners into laggards.
ReplyDeleteDavid - check out SCEI as well...Also RLD.
ReplyDeleteJeez AAPL
ReplyDeleteJust saw this comment: "SKUL is sold in AAPL stores as an accessory to iphones, expectations were around 30 mil iphones and 13 mil ipads, real numbers for Q4 were 37 mil and 15 mil, could give headphone sales a boost "
ReplyDeleteThe RLD chart looks ready for a breakout too. However, I don't know if their business is supposed to grow over the years or whether competing technologies will eat their pie. What can you say about it, TOF?
ReplyDeleteI think we'll have a chain reaction soon with the most beaten down stocks breaking out. A breakout in ONP was followed by a consolidation and then another breakout. Once the traders realize that we are in stage 1 of multi-stage breakouts for these companies, they'll scoop up everything in sight, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
ReplyDeleteHolly crap. Chairman/CEO of XCO SOLD 1.1M shares 3 days ago @ $7.85. He used the proceeds the next day to buy 2 pairs of SKUL headphones.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I know nothing about RLD....just that the chart looks excellent. This is the year where the momo stocks are the ones that were decimated last year.
ReplyDeleteSeriously, though, I'm thinking SKUL could really rally here. Those AAPL earnings will skyrocket it. SKUL is a direct beneficiary of the boom in iPads and iPhones and people will be looking at ancillary plays. 50%+ short due to fears of the lockup, but the business is growing at 50%+ annually. They just reiterated guidance for $231 Million Revs and $0.93 EPS for 2011. The stock is trading at only 1.4 times TRAILING sales and 14 times TRAILING earnings. Normally companies in their sector with that growth would trade at 2.0 times FORWARD sales and 17 to 20 times FORWARD earnings. That would peg the stock at $20+, a 50%+ upside move. I bet it gets there quickly
Apple's current cash level of $97+ billion is more than the MARKET CAPS of 474 S&P 500 companies!
ReplyDeleteWow Mark. That's insane.
ReplyDeleteMark - I agree with COOL. What are you thinking? Also check this out - look at comments to this article:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/314808-zumba-2-reignites-majesco-s-holiday-sales
TOF- I was thinking right @ 2.05 when I posted. 3 minutes later that 500M share bomb shell Fed it all up. I wonder if that was a short covering. Not sure now what's the play.
ReplyDeleteMDW - Back under $2 here, usually a good entry level... But doesn't that kinda look like an H&S?
ReplyDeleteSilver needs to move above $32.40 before the train can leave the station. My expectation for 2012 is only $34, though...
Mark - there was an article on Seeking Alpha at that exact time. Looks like it fueled some buying. Short interest isn't that high anymore. The stock looks very interesting. Seems like $2 is a great buy point over past year.
ReplyDeleteMDW- I'm still hoping for 1.90. There's something going on here. Pretty large bid/ask orders sitting out there.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Hmmm...Think it could push 500M shares in 2 minutes? I'll have to check it out.
500k shs you mean? that was my thinking too...that that seems like a lot of shares but who knows. I think that thing makes it to $3 again...I might consider buying some.
ReplyDeleteSorry, yes, 500K shares. I couldn't tell what time today's articles hit, but I got to say, I doubt that was it. That guy writes about it all the time. I like 3 also. Still, that's the craziest thing I've seen considering I was watching it at the time and just about to buy.
ReplyDeleteyeah. i had the opposite happen to me in october. i was entering a sell order after hours on the day of CSTR's last earnings at $57 and it within about 5 minutes it moved down $12. still pissed about that one.
ReplyDeleteCSTR- I was trying to sell then too. Somehow David got to place an order between Regular close and AH's.
ReplyDeleteUse ETrade, folks, for AH trading. :)
ReplyDeletedudes - check these companies out in the internet dating space:
ReplyDeleteDATE - 446th most popular website worldwide; 67th in China; $216 Mn mkt cap (compare with Zillow: 588th world; $754 Mn mkt cap)
LOV - own ChristianMingle.com and other sites....
Aapl. Do u just buy it and forget about it for 10years?
ReplyDeleteCc. Thx for the ire comments
ReplyDeleteEEM - Right at the neckline of the inverse H&S...
ReplyDeleteSPY - Doesn't this also kinda look like an inverse H&S? The traget would be 1400, buy my eye...
ReplyDeleteAAPL - Up 7.3% in AH...
ReplyDelete