Monday, January 30, 2012

1/30/12 The wind began to howl




'2nd_ave -- what made you feel more bullish about the market now?' The only honest answer is 'I don't know.' But I'll take a shot at rationalizing:

(a) Every sell off has been bought. That's more characteristic of a 'wall of worry' than a 'slope of hope' (where every rally is sold).

(b) As I gaze out my Bear tower, I spy a pale rider approaching- Facebook.

(c) Tuesday is end-of-month. Any fund manager who has been parked in cash is going to spend the next twelve hours going through a painful process: 'If the market gaps up and runs 2-3% tomorrow, then guns further on Facebook, I'm ----ed, man! Utterly ----ed! Alright, let's see...bring up the top ten holdings in FBGRX- I'm buying the shit out of 'em tomorrow.'

In any case, you'll notice that all positions opened had a down day.

126 comments:

  1. http://tywkiwdbi.blogspot.com/2012/01/two-classic-neil-young-pieces.html

    ReplyDelete
  2. I thought the topic would interest you and our friends here....

    The blog itself is the most fascinating blog I have ever seen. I've seen things there I never knew existed and topics covered in the most unique and interesting way.
    Example? Look at this: http://tywkiwdbi.blogspot.com/2012/01/hemeroplanes-snake-caterpillar.html

    Who knew?
    How about this one? I'll bet someone here tries this. http://tywkiwdbi.blogspot.com/2012/01/alien-brain-hemorrhage-cocktail.html

    I check it each evening for interesting stories. http://tywkiwdbi.blogspot.com/
    As they say: "Things You Wouldn't Know If We Didn't Blog Intermittently."

    ReplyDelete
  3. REGN- That's a powerful move for an expensive stock.

    ReplyDelete
  4. interesting, not sure why but i tried pulling up tt at work on explorer and it worked

    bot 200 cf at 176.05 and sold at 177.00. i was so happy.

    ReplyDelete
  5. portugal was on buzz and banter today. i started to look for a way to invest in portugal since it seems that there will be bailouts for any county about to go under. the first ticker i found was PT- PORTUGAL TELECOM SGPS SA. It currently pays a divvy of $.2736 but I'm sure you pay foreign taxes on that. It would also be interesting to see if thay cut their divvy in the past. All I did was look at the chart. It made a new multi year closing low of $5.12, breaking below the previous low of $5.38 set in Oct 2008. I'm thinking this might be the type of chart setup you guy are looking for but it also looks like this one breaks down and breaks up without much basing.

    ReplyDelete
  6. thx mark

    mad thinks AAPL eventually goes to $1,000, probably sooner rather than later, like within 2 or 3 yrs.

    ReplyDelete
  7. FYI: Lots of positive statements for the 'service' tonight. It's positive the market gapped down and reversed closing strong.

    A few of the stocks we are all watching are on the list...including our favorite Irish bank and most of the solars. BAC looks like it might be setting up again too.

    ReplyDelete
  8. mad link to aapl commentary

    http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/apples-next-stop-1000/

    ReplyDelete
  9. ok, i just reread the article he DID NOT say within 2 to 3 years, just "sooner than anyone thinks"

    ReplyDelete
  10. Mark - here you go bro:
    http://www.theflyonthewall.com/permalinks/entry.php/MITKid1568491/MITK-BNY-Mellon-reports--passive-stake-in-Mitek-Systems-

    Gonna be a good day for you tmrw.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Port- If AAPL was a small growing Co. it's valuation would be the equivalent of AAPL @ 1,000.

    TOF- Interesting. I don't see that. Probably tomorrow. Small AH trade @ 9.10, maybe that's why.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Mark - that's big news man. Bank of New York Mellon taking a 5% stake in the company man!? Seriously this will give it juice to $10 no doubt.

    ReplyDelete
  13. OSG is gonna go today out of its handle. Most insider buying I've ever seen.

    ReplyDelete
  14. All cash. Not trusting this market.

    ReplyDelete
  15. ANR, sold out at 21.37 after price faded and 89 dma blocked price.

    MITK, took a flyer, probably bit me.

    ReplyDelete
  16. T3D- Why 89? Is that 1 quarters trading days??

    ReplyDelete
  17. wow they're really peeling back the high fliers today. i sold 3/4 of my DECK at $81.62 this morning. now only have about 800ish shares.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Wow - 3 bad data points at 10:00

    1. Consumer confidence down and lower than expected
    2. Chicago PMI down and lower than expected
    3. Case Shiller has prices down in 18 of 20 cities

    This could give us a big whack today and help work off some of the positive sentiment.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Bought AAPL 460 puts @ 457.

    5 straight days above upper bolinger band. I can't see this every happening before. Always crashes after 2 or 3 days outside band.

    Outside weekly bolinger band 2 weeks in a row. Always crashes after.

    Something is going to happen. Not sure how or why. Perhaps they announce they'll distribute cash. This would kill it. We'll see...

    ReplyDelete
  20. Mark, its an average many houses use. ANR has been contained to the downside by it.

    Look at CSCO's past same thing, until it finally broke out above 89 on its second try and remained firm.

    MITK, bids sure dry up fast on this one.

    ReplyDelete
  21. BB- I don't think the CC # is worth a shit, but people do trade off of it.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Be careful on the coals guys. I did quite a bit of research yesterday.

    ACI and ANR have earnings later this week or next. CSFB issued a note saying that domestic coal demand has literally fallen off a cliff very recently due to low natural gas.

    They cut ACI and ANR estimates big time.

    2013 ANR estimates from 2.80 to 1.52
    ACI from 3.45 to 1.80

    ACI has an estimate for .32 this quarter. From what I'm seeing, they'll come in around .25.

    The risk is that many of the other analysts haven't come around to lowering their estimates. This could be a big problem on earnings day.

    Just a heads up.

    ReplyDelete
  23. BNY held 1,298,459 shares of MITK at 12/31/12 (from nasdaq.com).

    I think Fly on the Wall may be using the shares outstanding on the Yahoo page which is 24.5 Million and which would equate to a 5% stake at that time. This may not be new news...hence the lack of follow through buying.

    ReplyDelete
  24. I kind of agree Jesse on the coals. By the way, ballzy move on the AAPL puts but I like it.

    One short I really like is ENOC.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Thanks for the info on coal Jesse.

    ANR reports on 24 FEB

    ReplyDelete
  26. International demand still good, thus BTU not nearly as affected.

    ReplyDelete
  27. TOF- The BK filling was released yesterday. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/807863/000139077712000043/0001390777-12-000043-index.htm So, they basically doubled their shares in Q4.

    ReplyDelete
  28. I'm a spazz...I hopped back in DECK at $81.66.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Mark - gotcha. I thought I saw this filing on www.nasdaq.com before but maybe I didnt?

    ReplyDelete
  30. UBS blurb on coal:

    China Returns to the Thermal Market - For Now… On Friday, Platts reported that a Columbian coal producer sold two Capesize cargoes to China.
    This marks the first time since 1H10 that any meaningful amount of coal from South America was sold to China. We view this as a positive signal that
    renewed Chinese interest in the seaborne market could once again create a vacuum that leaves other coal importers short coal and may help the API2
    which has languished as of late.
    􀂄 Rig Count Declines (Not Enough); So Do Coal Fired Power Plants The NatGas rig count declined 3 rigs in part due to weak natgas pricing. CNX
    followed CHK announced rig cut that it would also scale back its drilling program; however, CNX’s BCFE production guidance for 2012 remained
    unchanged; hence, cuts around the edges may not be enough to impact 2012 and deeper cuts may be necessary. FE announced power plant
    retirements this week, one more than expected and on an earlier time frame than expected - NatGas likely the culprit.

    ReplyDelete
  31. annnnnnd DECK off at $81.12...yeesh

    ReplyDelete
  32. AAPL 2 gaps at all-time high. Today's looks like an exhaustion gap. Careful. AAPL IS the market. If AAPL goes, the market gets crushed.

    No longs for me for at least the next 1-2 weeks. May buy more puts.

    Some of the traders making a killing of late probably need to get crushed b4 we march higher.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Coal's roasting marshmellow's at the moment

    ANR -0.68 20.42 - 20.43 -3.22%
    BTU -1.26 34.19 - 34.20 -3.55%
    PCX -0.35 7.79 - 7.80 -4.26%
    WLT -1.32 68.49 - 68.54 -1.89%
    CNX -0.90 35.31 + 35.32 -2.49%
    JRCC -0.26 6.42 + 6.43 -3.90%

    ReplyDelete
  34. Uranium suffering too

    CCJ -0.33 23.22 + 23.23 -1.40%
    URA -0.02 10.38 + 10.39 -0.19%
    USU -0.12 1.61 - 1.62 -6.94%
    DNN -0.04 1.77 - 1.78 -2.21%

    I'm with Jesse's mkt sentiment here.

    ReplyDelete
  35. The kiss of death for AAPL will be Ultrabooks. My Dad bought an Ipad 3 weeks ago and thought it was a joke. He returned it. I pushed him to buy an Ultrabook. Loves it.

    Ultrabooks will significantly dent demand for Mac Airs, moderately for Mac Books, and slightly for Ipads imo.

    Yes, AAPL is "priced for perfection".

    ReplyDelete
  36. hopped back into those CAT puts at $1.53 avg...strike $110 expiring this Friday.

    just trading really small until prices come to me.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Natgas getting crushed. Here comes potential double bottom in next week or so.

    ReplyDelete
  38. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  39. I'm thinking Silver may be a good short here as well - up over 20% in Jan. and approaching the highs from last Nov.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Tel-

    The thing that worries me about JRCC here (which I discovered over the weekend when I was holding a big stake) is that its short interest keeps marching higher.

    I don't like that one bit. Smart money shorts usually cover at the bottom and roll into long positions. They haven't done so yet.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Interesting dynamics in the market today. Just enough tension to keep us all guessing. I like the uncertainty.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Last day of the month guys. Always interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Out of my puts on that spike down. Just gonna sit on my hands and wait for the next round of set ups.

    ReplyDelete
  44. I'd be a BIG buyer at SPX 13wma- 1271 which is always a slingshot in a bull market.

    ReplyDelete
  45. JRCC

    Market Capitalization $238.49M
    Shares Outstanding 35,648,000
    Shares Short* 10,100,463
    Short Interest as a % of
    Shares Outstanding* 28.33%

    ReplyDelete
  46. JRCC days to cover 4.42

    MITK, has fair size short too

    Market Capitalization $219.16M
    Shares Outstanding 24,542,000
    Shares Short* 2,763,478
    Short Interest as a % of
    Shares Outstanding* 11.26%
    Days to Cover 5.13

    ReplyDelete
  47. Jes, still in Quito? I had a friend who was going to go there for three months and when they sent him the contract to rent a condo, it said he could not flush toilet paper down the commode. Being an older guy, he passed.

    Gets great ratings as a place for ex-pats.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Bought first batch of TVIX 18.13. Will buy more if my prices are hit.

    Best chart and volume pattern in the market right now imo.

    Stop probably around 17.69.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Gonna hold my CAT puts I think...that thing was waaaay overbought (RSI(7) hit 95).

    Let's see some air come out of this market so us sideliners can get back in at good prices.

    ReplyDelete
  50. COAL - Note the price of NG keeps dropping... At some point that won't be the case any longer, but when, exactly?

    Seriously though, are we actually shutting down coal-fired power plants and replacing them with NG turbines? I suppose the answer could be affirmative (I can personally account for one such plant scheduled for decommission) but I don't know who's involved, how to play it, and how far along the trade has progressed.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Long IRE at $6.135 avg

    ReplyDelete
  52. I see the market is having a little pullback here, but S&P is still above 1300. So I decided to start scaling into VXX puts. Just bought 2 June $29 puts for $6.10.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Now I have some exposure to S&P :), as opposed to being exposed only to crappy stocks. :)

    ReplyDelete
  54. I took a big position in IRE between $6.13 and $6.18

    ReplyDelete
  55. Just bought 500 more shares of RLD at $8.54.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Placed a buy limit order for 3000 shares of PEIX at $1.04 -- I think this is a good low risk entry close to the bottom of its range.

    ReplyDelete
  57. The drop in RLD looks like a real trend knockout. What would be a textbook entry here, Craig?

    ReplyDelete
  58. dudes - this IRE is gearing up to go again. I think this doubles from the lows a few weeks ago. my target is $8. i've been watching this sucker for a while and it just won't move down. also look at the other banks...all of them are strong. And look at NBG man...what a huge return.

    ReplyDelete
  59. IRE - Irish eyes smilin! There's something fundamentally positive going for it, but I just can't figure out precisely the theme...

    Sounds like it's time for some Lenny Kravitz...

    ReplyDelete
  60. CP - The Irish Stock Market:
    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/stock-market
    At 52 week highs.

    Basically it's a mean reversion trade. Ireland has a solid export market which means their economy is a lot more stable than other European economies going forward. I think that's what Wilbur Ross was talking about when he invested in IRE back in July. BIR.IR, which is the ticker for the stock in the Irish market, is still between at par or 10% below the level that Ross invested at.

    IRE was the only Irish bank not to get nationalized / bailed out. Basically it's the Ford of Irish banks. I know I thought it was insane to invest in Ford in early April 2009 after it already doubled to $3 but it still went on to go to $10 in 8 months. Who's to say IRE won't do the same? The Irish stock market and Irish government bond yields (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/government-bond-yield) suggest it might.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Since no one wanted to sell me PEIX at $1.04 for a while now, I just raised my buy limit to $1.05 and purchased 3000 shares.

    ReplyDelete
  62. XLF - Assuming this is an inverse H&S, my interpretation is the geometric target would indicate $16

    ReplyDelete
  63. Tel-

    Quito was one hell of a city. Enjoyed it immensely. Great food, gorgeous mountains, a salsy nightlife, and an element of danger (I was robbed at knife point 2 days ago).

    I've been in banos for 2 days and just arrived Puyos which certainly is nothing to write home about. I head to the jungle tomorrow...

    ReplyDelete
  64. Solars rolling over big time. Makes me even more cautious.

    Certainly won't stop IRE!

    ReplyDelete
  65. Jesse - lots of 2012 high flyers peeling back pretty hard from recent highs. But yeah I think IRE has some mojo.

    Wow CNH = yeesh. But it looks like it's just coming back to support.

    ReplyDelete
  66. dudes SOHU is just dirt CHEAP. i think you could do a lot worse than buy and hold on this sucker. $21 cash, $38 value for the rest of the business. EPS for last year of $4.6.

    ReplyDelete
  67. AUMN is still defying the drop in silver today. Nice... It probably implies that AUMN will reach $12 in no time...

    ReplyDelete
  68. Until TAN drops below its intraday low of $2.9 reached on Jan 24, I wouldn't worry about solars...

    ReplyDelete
  69. Looks like RLD indeed had a trend knockout today and is returning back to its uptrend...

    ReplyDelete
  70. Caught a case of the Mips. L at 5.88

    ReplyDelete
  71. The highest close for ONP since May 2011 was $4.32 in July 2011. ONP is trading now at $4.40.

    After selling at $3.50 the shares I purchased at $2.40, I re-entered ONP at $4.07 after it broke above its resistance at $4. Let's see how high this new leg up will take me...

    ReplyDelete
  72. TOF,

    do you know how many shares does IRE have outstanding? What I'm really wondering is if there is any book value support for the current price or if it is just more of a Irish macro trade?

    ReplyDelete
  73. BB - I can't quite remember but I think when I was looking at it at $4.50 the market cap was around $1.8 or $2 Billion??? I may be way off on the memory but that sounds right. I think they have like $250 Billion in assets...

    ReplyDelete
  74. Gals,IRE

    Market Capitalization $4.53B
    Shares Outstanding 753,313,000
    Shares Short* 212,759
    Short Interest as a % of
    Shares Outstanding* 0.03%
    Days to Cover 0.35

    ReplyDelete
  75. Placed a buy limit order for 1000 shares of TAN at $3.03. If executed, will place a sell stop at $2.85.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Silver short, anyone know ETF symbol to short may want to hedge something out.

    ReplyDelete
  77. TEl- ZSL

    Interesting day. All the stuff on my watchlist is cracking yet the nasdaq is up. Not much of interest.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Wow Brazil:
    LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Brazilian stocks gained ground Tuesday, with a rise in shares of miner Vale SA helping the equity benchmark log its best January performance in six years.
    Brazil's Ibovespa rose 0.5% to 63,072, with strength from retail, utility, oil and most mining issues.
    Vale shares (RIO) rose 2.6%. The world's largest supplier of iron ore late Monday said it won an injunction that suspends unfavorable tax-related rulings. Last week, Vale was handed a tax bill of 9.8 billion reals , or roughly $5.6 billion , plus interest and penalties, related to income tax on earnings at foreign subsidiaries.
    The matter will return to the CARF tax appeals board for review, said Vale.
    The Ibovespa index is likely to rise about 11% in January, the best start of a year since 2006 when the index surged 14.7%. This month's rise featured a string of eight consecutive wins, the longest winning streak since early August 2010 .

    ReplyDelete
  79. Today's action in RLD suggests that a stop below today's low makes sense. If today was indeed a trend knockout and RLD is destined to move higher, then today's lows should not be breached. Thus, I places a sell stop limit for all my 1500 shares at $8.40/$8.35.

    ReplyDelete
  80. jesse- At least you were robbed fair and square by a stand-up thief, for a reasonable amount.

    ReplyDelete
  81. David - There have been a lot of attempts at trend knockouts. Look at ZAGG...that's a great example there. I suspect they're doing the same with SKUL today. If you have conviction in something it's best to just walk away from the screen.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Thanks Jesse, enjoy the jungle.

    Long time ago when we were traveling with the tennis team. The coach had a rule you cant' go out at night, this was in LA. Well, Joy, the cutest, sweetest little Chinese girl you ever want to meet and tough as nails on the court; she went out with her boyfriend and they were robbed with guns to their heads. The one guy said let's kill them, the other said no, their not white and let them go.

    Poor thing was shaking like a leaf when she got back.

    Jes, enjoy the jungle and stay safe.

    ReplyDelete
  83. more than anything BB - IRE is a Ireland macro play for sure. I'm not about to pretend that the stock is worth $X based on valuation or earnings or whatnot. it's kind of like saying back in 2009 that LVS or PIR were worth 50 times what they were currently trading for because you knew they would turn around their operations and start making serious coin.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Also picked up a few shares of EUFN earlier in the day at 16.79...

    ReplyDelete
  85. FYI - IRE closed at its highest level today since late October, with a close of $6.27 just above the close from a few days ago in what could be the beginning of a new breakout.

    To slightly hedge my longs I decided to keep my CAT puts and to add a handful of SPY Puts...$132 puts expiring this Friday at $1.3

    ReplyDelete
  86. for you chart pattern dudes it looks like AMZN is putting together a head and shoulders on the weekly chart.

    ReplyDelete
  87. We closed right near the high of the month.

    Something tells me we get a big gap up tomorrow- say +40 on the Nasdaq which would then put a nice gap on the monthly charts....which has to be filled.

    ReplyDelete
  88. being someone that has a retail biz, i would never short AMZN and if it tanks further it's a buy. they are dominating the entire retail space. its actually really annoying

    ReplyDelete
  89. STX + BRCM both good reactions to earnings. Jesse - I think you could be right...ideally i want to see a gap down to $130 SPY that gets bought up immediately and just runs to new highs. i think that could happen as well.

    ReplyDelete
  90. either way we're going higher very soon

    ReplyDelete
  91. Robbed at knife point? I'm quite certain I would've been cut, or at least someone would've been...

    ReplyDelete
  92. I closed my TVIX more or less at even.

    The risk/reward for shorts here isn't good. The only time I make money shorting is:

    1)The market is super extended.
    2)It is a couple standard deviations above its 9dma (we are hugging it now)
    3)The market finishes at or near the high of the day after a big up day after already being overbought.
    4)I want to see rsi's in extreme overbought territory.

    The risk/reward simply isn't there for me.

    ReplyDelete
  93. My buy limit for 1000 shares of TAN was executed at $3.03. Placed a sell stop limit at $2.90/$2.85.

    ReplyDelete
  94. UNG - NG just keeps on getting cheaper as the days roll by...

    ReplyDelete
  95. OK-

    AMZN is the best company ever. Seriously.

    But how in the World is it trading at $200 when next year's earnings are estimated to be $1.83?

    Its no longer the hyper-growth story it was 8 years ago. Right?

    ReplyDelete
  96. AMZN - Too much Kindling on the fire?

    ReplyDelete
  97. AMZN - P/E of 102? Margins should be increased on that baby...

    ReplyDelete
  98. Jesse - I have no idea on valuation man. i personally would never touch it at these levels because i can't get myself to do it...but i know that it is destroying everything in its path much like apple.

    maybe based on cash flows? they did $2.7 Billion in free cash flow in 2010 so it's "only" about 30 times that. not sure what the 2011 cash flow figures are like.

    it's the best run company i have ever seen. i could explain how we work with them for hours and it would blow your mind how efficient and well run it is. again it's really annoying because we get customers all of the time that are asking if we can price match and we just can't compete.

    ReplyDelete
  99. Jesse compare AMZN earnings with one of the ole four horseman. Rimm will make $4,00 to 5 bucks a share and it is hated.

    ReplyDelete
  100. OK guys-

    300% all in on UNG.

    As you can see on the chart below:

    -Highest monthly volume EVER for natural gas.
    -Very large monthly tail. Going back 17 years, tails of this magnitude have not been tested.
    -Today, UNG closed at its big gap off the lows @5.25.
    -I like to see a BIG daily move to end a trend. I think 7% down may qualify.
    -Jungle stop-loss at 5.09.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Chart:

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2791469&cmd=show[s165975884]&disp=O

    ReplyDelete
  102. You were in a Banos for two days? Know the feeling. May I suggest rice.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Jesse - all in calls again?

    by the way, the big monthly tail in what looks like July 2009 was actually one upped the next month, which a month were NG DOUBLED (add emphasis). I think you're fighting a good trade but the stops may need to be widened.

    ReplyDelete
  104. When I look at the IRE chart, it was almost $1000 back in 2007, so it's easy for people to think it's worth a lot more than $6.

    In their financial statements from last June, they had shareholder equity of 7 billion Euros or $9 billion. Then they did that financing with the Fairfax guy and Wilbur Ross and I'm not sure how that worked, but I can guarantee you they both got great deals for their money.

    I think banks will have a tough time trading above book value in the current environment, so I'd watch that. I've still got Lloyd's and NBG, but am way underwater on them both, so probably shouldn't say any more.

    ReplyDelete
  105. TOF- 300% calls? Boy, I wish!

    Yes, I've looked quite a bit recently at those 2 months in 2009- July/August?

    The first month wasn't oversold at all, so one might have expected a continuation/retest at a minimum.

    W/ the waterfall ng pattern over 8 MONTHS(!) culminating w/ the biggest bar and highest volume (ever), I suspect its a tail that will stick. Lowering my stop to 5.03.

    If I had to guess, I'd say Feb. moves 20% from here @ 2.45 to close at 2.90, then March closes around 3.60ish. We could also get a one month move to 4.00. Who knows?

    ReplyDelete
  106. I have to wonder if natty were to go to say 4.00 in a month, where the heck would BOIL be trading at??

    ReplyDelete
  107. http://216.105.249.177/Mobile/news?id=437570152

    ReplyDelete
  108. BB - I hear ya that they might not trade up to book in a while but if this market rips higher like a lot of us suspect it will and if the Irish stock market continues to perform well, then I suspect a lot of the assets that IRE wrote off for dead would come back to life pretty quickly. That's where the upside is in this stock, aside from the fact that it trades at less than 0.5 times book.

    ReplyDelete
  109. That would be Los Banos, no doubt rice would help.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Or consider this BB - The markets rip higher, employers begin to employ more, housing begins to come back everywhere, banks eventually over time trade at 1.5 times book like they did in the past, asset values on the books of banks rise because of the above...eventually a recovery in asset prices will take hold whether it's through higher inflation or a genuine recovery due to strong end demand. Buying things at half below their liquidation value when liquidation value is at the trough should do well if you're willing to hold.

    Speaking of recovery - did you know that the US economy ex-Govt actually grew at 4.5% in Q4?
    http://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/blogs/Economics/index.aspx

    ReplyDelete
  111. Not surprised to hear that - the US economy actually seems to be doing quite well and government is cutting back (which is good).

    Obama is one of the luckiest guys around - last election, the economy falls apart and he gets to blame the republicans; this election, the economy comes back and he gets to take the credit.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Eacebook only offering 5 billion $ worth of shares. There is going to be fist fights in the aisles just like black Friday. Only 5% of the company sold to the public?

    ReplyDelete
  113. BB - it's ALWAYS about the economy. Clinton was really the luckiest, let's be honest.

    Easebook? Is that the east coast version of Facebook?

    Any of you dudes follow AVAV? $200 Million cash, no debt, nice growth, apparently they are in the only growth sector in defense spending: unmanned drones.

    ReplyDelete
  114. AVAV- I do, did. It's really a niche play though. They make the really tiny ones. NOC makes the big ones we see on TV that can go 60,000 ft alt. And General Atomic (private) make the Predator drones that bomb shit.

    ReplyDelete
  115. IRE - I think have to I'll stay away, looks like a relief rally to me.

    HII - Still flying, apparently there's no holding this thing back...

    ReplyDelete
  116. AVAV - That thing should be flying, shouldn't it? I swear, sometimes I just don't understand markets at all......

    ReplyDelete