I understand jesse's point re self-confidence. Each of us is an individual player in a highly competitive game, and we find and use what works for us. I've been known to tout a stock, a directional bias, or trading strategy, only to stomp on it minutes or days later. To trade effectively, we have to know ourselves.
On a related note- no apologies needed for honest and well-intentioned posts. We know where you're coming from, and no offense taken. If you're truly offensive, you'll know it, b/c we'll kick your --- off the blog.
UNG staging one of its gravity-defying climbs.
ReplyDeleteDitto to 2nd's intro. I think everyone here has the best of intentions. Maybe different systems, but the best of intentions. It's all good.
ReplyDeleteLast night we decided to seriously dent our 'staycation' budget and have dinner at Gary Danko.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.garydanko.com/
Our family of five was seated in a private room, as that's all they had available. 5-course dinner over 3 hours + a bottle of Sonoma cab. $760. Each diner was allowed to select individually from the menu. The appetizers (foie gras, lobster risotto, glazed oysters) were awesome. Can't say the same for the entrees (Maine lobster was good; the lamb, duck, filet mignon, and quail were just OK). Chocolate souffle unbelievable.
However, you can get a better meal at half the price at Boulevard:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.boulevardrestaurant.com/
Piper Jaffray Maintains Overweight, $16 PT on Dangdang
ReplyDeleteBy David Johnson
Benzinga Staff Writer
December 23, 2011 7:45 AM
Symbols: DANG
Tags: China, Piper Jaffray
Posted in: Reite (…more)
inShare
Share
Piper Jaffray reiterates its Overweight rating and $16 price target on E Commerce China Dangdang (NYSE: DANG [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]) as the company is seen to be well positioned in the nascent China e-commerce space.
Piper Jaffray comments, "We remain comfortable with our Dec revenue estimate of $182m vs. the Street at $183m and our EPS estimate of ($0.17) inline with the Street, and expect these results to be a slight positive for shares. Importantly, we remain comfortable with our 50% revenue growth in 2012. The expense side in 2012 remains a wild card given the shifting competitive environment, but we believe spending to promote revenue growth is the right decision at this stage of the market."
DANG closed at $4.66 per share on Wednesday.
Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/reiteration/11/12/2226860/piper-jaffray-maintains-overweight-16-pt-on-dangdang?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+benzinga+(Benzinga+News+Feed)#ixzz1iVjzTMUh
Wife and I were joking that on a relative price-to-food basis, we enjoyed sandwiches at Arby's on the way up to Placerville a lot more. Actually, I'm not joking.
ReplyDeleteI like DANG and WATG here. The Chinese stocks have likely really bottomed.
ReplyDeletei've never had arbys. i did however make money on WEN in July 2009.
ReplyDeleteDANG is interesting but man it's gonna take a while for the sentiment on those china stocks to change. there have been far too many potholes hit along the way for sentiment to just change on a dime.
Thank you for the Stewart web site Jessie.
ReplyDeleteA rose is a rose. That is basically the system I'm using. I just went through the entire site and almost 100% of those trades are on trend knockouts. He calls it Map Syntax. Whatever, it's trend resumption where the buy is on breaking the top of the pullback bar or in the case of shorting, shorting on the break of the bottom of the last lower bar. He uses RSI and volume too, but it's the same system.
I suspect his "junk off the bottom" idea hasn't triggered yet. When the MA's cross it should be a go. He is also right about the overhead supply. Good site. Different terms, same game.
Oh my God- This guy is a nut! He has spent more time studying DANG than all Street analysts combined. If interested, check this guy's analysis out (may take a few days!) http://seekingalpha.com/author/kevin-chen/instablog
ReplyDelete"The investment thesis for Dangdang is actually very simple, simpler than all other stocks I have covered so far. The elevator speech: “it is Amazon selling at $6 in 2001 or Baidu selling at under $5 in early 2006”:
Using the more conservative sets of forecast first forecast table above, I expect Dangdang to earn about $1.03 billion in 2012. Dangdang’s closest publically traded competitor in the U.S. is Amazon, which is trading at about 2.5x annual revenue right now. Even if I shave 40% discount from that multiple, Dangdang should still deserve at least 1.5x revenue multiple, implying at market capitalization of no less than $1.5 billion and per share price of no less than $18. Under my more optimistic scenario in which the company delivers $1.16 billion, fair value of the stock should be about $22."
CC-
ReplyDeleteKeep an eye on his site. He profiled 90% of the momo plays last year in their infancy. He was going bonkers over MITK's pattern at $2.
He's had a tough time finding much of anything to profile over the last few months as traders have more or less applied for their real estate licenses.
I suspect he'll profile a whole new batch of momentum plays over the next few months. Mostly stocks we've never heard of.
OK, hopefully, this is my last post of the day.
ReplyDeleteI'll pull a TOF here on DANG.
DANG is THE AMZN of China (which I'm insanely adamant about it bottoming last week).
AMZN P/S ratio - 2.5
DANG 2012 sales - $1.1 billion
2.5 p/s for DANG = $2.75 billion market cap
market cap currently- $.388 billion
2.5 p/s gets us to $35 and change per share.
Am I absolutely, 100%, certifiably crazy? Yes!!
But the kicker is that DANG was OVER $35 this year!
Let's see if I can hold it for awhile. "The AMZN of China" has a great ring to it for future momo traders.
"He's had a tough time finding much of anything to profile over the last few months as traders have more or less applied for their real estate licenses."
ReplyDeleteThank you for pointing this out. He is right.
As I've been saying in my best "Debbie Downer" voice, a momentum/trend system has to have momentum/trend to work. We have been going sideways for quite a while now, so he is saying the same thing Landry has been saying. WAIT!
Landry has been in the same mode, but we are seeing more set-ups lately. Unfortunately, some of the high fliers on the short side, but I don't care as long as there is a trend. There is no law that says you can be long and short!
The positive? Sideways trading doesn't go on forever. It either means there is uncertainty or that everyone is agreeing (temporarily) on prices, and we will not all agree or be uncertain for long.
The guy is a little, uh, *enthusiastic*, but his system (whatever terms you use or call it)works. THAT I know. Good post. Great site.
Sorry, typo...
ReplyDelete"There is no law that says you CAN'T be long and short!"
One of my New Year's resolutions was to learn how to use Twitter. I am now following all of who I consider to be the "best trend traders". The chatter over the past couple of days from several traders (who don't know of each other) is how to play the Shanghai A shares as they are pretty confident that China will rebound.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is we will see hot money starting to enter the YOKU's, RENN's, DANG's, and secondarily SINA's, SOHU's, and BIDU's.
I love watching money flow in and out of sectors. We'll see if they can catch a bid.
i might join you on DANG Jesse. but right now i'm 100% long PEIX / FAS.
ReplyDeleteI think there's a big move coming up for both. Chart setups are really good on both...MACD crossovers + tests of longer term moving averages and heavy volume buying vs light volume selling.
TOF-
ReplyDeleteCheck out Kevin Chen's analysis of ETFC. That has always been my fave RE-leveraged finance play. Love the franchise.
http://seekingalpha.com/author/kevin-chen/instablog
Traders are legging back in.
ReplyDeleteBeaten down plays are starting to move.
ENER, TBSI, ASTI, WEST all up 25-50% on a down day.
FSLR setting up for next couple of days.
DANG picking up steam...nice trade.
ReplyDeletePicked up a little RENN 3.71
ReplyDeleteScaling into DANG @ 5.14
ReplyDeleteJust read this from a trader:
ReplyDelete"if that break occurs after 2pm est of that day, then the validity of the break is greater.
If the break occurs prior to to 2pm'ish...it can still be credible, but suspect."
Added to DANG @ 5.04- will add further only on strength. Let's see how long I can hold on to this thing as well.
ReplyDelete"People do there afterhours research, see the b/out and then do the rookie thing and want in the next morning and the mkt makers know this and raise prices. Always be watching your 'focus list' of long ideas for thrust from 2pm est on. Spot the thrust for f/thru the next day. gives you a leg up and a cushion of profits to work with in managing the downside. "
ReplyDeleteDumped the RENN in favor of HSOL.
ReplyDeleteLOVE the chart.
LOVE the sector (solar)
LOVE the country (China)
$3.50ish in cash for a dollar stock. Its go time.
"People do there afterhours research, see the b/out and then do the rookie thing and want in the next morning and the mkt makers know this and raise prices. Always be watching your 'focus list' of long ideas for thrust from 2pm est on. Spot the thrust for f/thru the next day. gives you a leg up and a cushion of profits to work with in managing the downside. "
ReplyDeleteYep. That's the reason I buy knockouts. Those knockouts are the M Makers shaking out the rookies. They are the only ones that control that kind of volume.
AEN doing well.
ReplyDeleteBought a few thousand DANG. Dang!
KOG on the march.
BTW TOF, that's why the best time to sell (usually) is first thing in the AM in that first half hour.
GAZ on fire. I'm done for the day. Gonna head outside and make a snow man down here in South Florida.
ReplyDeleteDANG closed within a penny of its breakout level after months of sideways consolidation.
ReplyDeleteThis is usually precisely when trading departments urge their analysts to issue an upgrade or have their I-banking team give the company the go ahead to release pr's they have been holding back for the right moment.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some "news" hit in the next 2-3 sessions. Time will tell.
oil is enfuego. should it break higher i would expect PEIX to have a face ripping rally really soon. a break above 1.20 on volume would constitute a break out of the bull flag. a break of 1.30 on volume should signal all clear for traders.
ReplyDeleteThat's more like it....
ReplyDeleteYesterday "Debbie Downer" didn't like what she saw...so much. Today was better. Still not great follow through but we closed marginally higher and we didn't gap up (OGR) and close weak like yesterday. Better to gap down and close stronger. Yay! Look at how the MA's converged at the close yesterday and then crossed on today's open and flipped at the touch of the MA. So far so good. Let's see if we can keep following through. I'm still concerned we closed below yesterday's open, but, 'one day at a time....'
http://screencast.com/t/cxMut2f19Br
Nice call on DANG.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEz8Qi6K6f8
TOF-
ReplyDeleteThat is a sweeeeet setup for PEIX. I remember seeing that natty is a significant expense for the company. Assuming that's the case, they should have a gigantic Q given the depressed (not for long) natty prices during the quarter.
PEIX was a Landry set-up at right around 1.39-1.40 but broke down. I think it might have been the Congress not renewing the subsidy.
ReplyDeleteThe better set-up would have been after the bowtie around .78. A trader could have survived all the noise since and still been up nicely.
My view: It could be front run a bit early at 1.30 or to be safer, 1.40. I would expect some noise around the MA but I think if it broke above 1.60 it would be in free air.
http://screencast.com/t/eDns3muA3vbz
team - Tudor didn't have any PEIX comments. I wasn't paying attn I guess, I didn't realize it was ethanol AND small cap till this morn. I'm sure someone in the company looks at ethanol but noone in our group. That's about like playing CF though which was up from 153.81 to 157.99. Unfortunately I have no position now.
ReplyDeletejesse - i was reading your post "explosiveface-rippingstocksmorgasbord" and I was wondering if I could ask you some questions
WHOOPS, just saw the time, have to go get the 3 yr old. I'll post my questions later tonight.
Venezuela? No S?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/stockmarket.gif
No problemo CC.
ReplyDeleteHere you go guys. The quote of the evening by DANG CEO:
"FU*# YOU, scum of the Wall Street Journal, let me beat s**t out of you. Wall Street Journal reported biased stories about me. Those sluts used 4 letter words against me. I didn't fight back at all."
I guess he did fight back:)
"David - This article explains why the debt isn't a problem, do you think this means we won't be suffering the slings and arrows that come with massive budgetary cuts?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/opinio..."
CP, that link didn't post fully. Besides, this is from NY Times, which I think requires a subscription. Maybe you can just copy&paste the whole article?
Seagate comes out swinging w/ pre-announcement of revenue surge 25% above estimates from guidance given 6 weeks ago. Next Q roughly 15% above estimates on surge in disk drive demand. Bottom-up approach. IMO, semi industry drives everything else.
ReplyDeleteFutures flat, but my guess is we could see a surge manana.
David - Yes, I see the link was incomplete. Here it is in it's entirety, and in full print(as of when I first read it)...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/opinion/krugman-nobody-understands-debt.html?src=me&ref=general
DANG apparently not severe enough.
ReplyDeletehttp://news.ichinastock.com/2011/05/dangdang-ceos-latest-fit-of-rage-fk-you-scum-of-the-wall-street-journal/
I'm proud of this guy.
I would say that to all of the bankers, not just MS and CS.
unless if one of you cats is doing the bidding, it's nice to see someone on the BID on PEIX after hours - 13k shs above the final price. hopefully it's a gap and go tomorrow.
ReplyDeletei also see that BAC is trading above the close. as stupid as it sounds that's a tell to me that tomorrow could be a good one.
Jesse - the note from the DANG CEO was very early in 2011 i believe. i remember reading that and thinking to myself that there is no way in hell the stock was going to do well. i should have gone with my instinct and shorted it. oh well.
oh wow...that was again in may. man that dude has some anger issues. DANG at these prices makes a lot of sense but i suspect it sees one final shakeout.
ReplyDeleteThe PEIX chart indeed looks interesting, especially if it starts going up again. So I just placed a buy stop limit order for 3000 shares at $1.20/$1.21.
ReplyDeleteIncidentally, it is nice to see gold up today and silver holding onto most of yesterday's gains despite a noticeable jump in $USD today. It shows, I think, that the weak panicky hands are out of GLD/SLV and thus they will most likely keep going up for a while now...
ReplyDeleteCP, below are some key excerpts from Krugman's article about US debt:
ReplyDelete"Deficit-worriers portray a future in which we’re impoverished by the need to pay back money we’ve been borrowing. They see America as being like a family that took out too large a mortgage, and will have a hard time making the monthly payments. This is, however, a really bad analogy in at least two ways. First, families have to pay back their debt. Governments don’t — all they need to do is ensure that debt grows more slowly than their tax base.
...
And that’s why nations with stable, responsible governments — that is, governments that are willing to impose modestly higher taxes when the situation warrants it — have historically been able to live with much higher levels of debt than today’s conventional wisdom would lead you to believe."
In general, this is correct. My claim (that gold will be going up as long as the rate of GDP growth (tax base) is smaller than the rate of debt growth) is also consistent with Krugman's words. The problem in US is, however, that the difference between the debt growth rate and the GDP growth rate is SO LARGE now (the debt is growing at 8-10% annually and the economy is growing at around 2%) that THERE IS NOW WAY for US to close this gap with higher taxes without causing a severe recession, which will in turn make GDP growth negative and thus will not reduce the overall debt.
David - One possibility for handling the debt might be through US energy independence? There are rumors about a lot of oil locked up in the shale deposits...
ReplyDeleteZinc - Well, it looks like LME zinc inventories may have leveled off:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical_large.html
Copper - And copper inventories have actually been falling since mid Sept:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html
Jan 4th, 2012
ReplyDelete"Commodity prices could continue to weaken in 2012 — particularly oil and copper, driven as they are by Asian market demand. The Centre for Economics and Business Research forecasts a weighted average of the main benchmarks – Brent, WTI and Dubai at $86 per barrel in 2012. Other metals like aluminum and platinum that are already into the top quartile of the production cost curve could see some production cutbacks if prices fall further, offering some support; but copper, which is still above the cost of production, looks more vulnerable.
It could be a relatively good time for US companies and prospects. Slower global growth will not help US exporters, but lower commodity prices and a firmer economy is a good base to build on. The caveat is what the politicians will do in an election year and whether the in-fighting can be resolved to reach some sensible budget deficit agreements.
–Stuart Burns"
http://agmetalminer.com/
Great comments to read guys. My life is getting in the way again!! At least my truck will be ready tomorrow...And, oh yeah, it's all my fault. Even the 2 month old radiator will now have to be replaced. My bad!
ReplyDeleteCP > Perhaps PEIX and the ethanol industry can solve our problems :)
ReplyDeletePEIX- I'm showing one AH trade @ 1.11 for 877 shares. Hopefully MOG will have a take.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Nice find for MITK in the V/MA article. They should pay you!
From that article...
ReplyDelete"McCrohan and DeProspo say their "best idea" for fiscal 2012 is Mitek Systems Inc., which makes software that allows users to "deposit" checks with their cellphones. The company also is expanding to other types of applications such as those for insurance company customers, the report notes. Janney has a "Buy" rating on Mitek stock, which was down 13 cents, or 1.8 percent, at $7.06 in midday trading Wednesday."
But it still looks like it's going in the toilet.
ReplyDeleteI'm probably the only one who checks out the ladies in the back ground on those clips from the candidates...Yeah, I thought so..
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete