Thursday, January 5, 2012
1/6/12 Horse With No Name
January- the cruelest month, both in terms of the weather and personal history. January '73 and '74 vie for title of worst. In 1973 this song had more air time than any other, or maybe it just felt that way, having spent time hitch-hiking in the 'high desert' area north of San Bernardino.
I can see this market spiking up or selling off on the employment numbers tomorrow morning. I just have no interest in placing chips on Player or Banker.
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Wait for the right set up. O/w, no swings.
ReplyDeleteRighto' 2nd. This ain't baseball. No strikes, no balls, you can stand there and wait for your pitch.
ReplyDeleteBB Canada: I started scaling into SORL at $7.50 and continued in small chunks all the way up until today at $2.50. I became aware of it in 2011, when WATG started tanking and I looked around at what other Chinese auto parts companies (CAAS, SORL) were doing.
ReplyDeleteAn important message for all!
ReplyDeletehttp://adsoftheworld.com/media/tv/mcac_rhian_touches_herself
t3d- Yes, a great TA lesson for those of us who trade with titanium balls.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the MDW update T3D...I keep waiting for 1.90....as for the other one, well, I loved it till a certain point :)
ReplyDeleteHere we go again with my posts getting deleted...anyway I'm 100% cash with parents in town I'm takin a break til tues or wed, but will research the shippers and solars. Jesse u gotta stay stateside and do the research lots of $$ to be made in this Mkt.
ReplyDeleteHave fun with your parents bro.
ReplyDeleteI'm still here and in the market to a lesser extent. Sold out of PHYS this after noon. Have no gold now! Just playing the small cycles for a profit.
ReplyDeleteillini- In what form (bullion, coins) were you holding, and where did you go to sell?
ReplyDeleteNot looking bullish in Asia tonight.
ReplyDelete2nd, here is a reputable place for metals.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.amark.com/
tof- I found your deleted post in the Spam section, and reproducing it here:
ReplyDeletehear ya 2nd. Alright fellas. I have to confess...I fucked up today. I went into the day with an outsized position in PEIX and with a position in FAS. Good stuff right? Well, not exactly. I sold RDN and BAC YESTERDAY and chose to move into those full boat. Forgetting that we had a DR's appt I watched the morning trade and was psyched to see PEIX do so well...we left after it was trading around $1.18 or so. I said to myself I should have sold it off... I got back not too long ago to a $1.12 x $1.13 quote. I knew there was going to be a small bump and I had to take advantage of it. I bailed. Sold it all at $1.12 avg. I don't think this trade is going to work like I hoped. I also sold FAS at $70.2. I shouldn't complain as I made I think about $6k today....but had I paid attention to my schedule I most definitely would have been taking profits earlier (and probably rolling them into BAC but that's a different story) with a profit of about $25k...why the eff do I always get so greedy?
Thanks, t3d.
ReplyDeletetof- I have a collection of similar stories re my own trading. A large collection.
ReplyDeleteShanghai back near the 52-wk low.
ReplyDelete2nd - PHYS is a Sprott gold bullion Canadian trust fund on the Naz which I believe to be superior to GLD (not as liquid) because of a redeemable feature. GLD is ok but may be more encumbered by leases, etc and JPM and the ilk.
ReplyDeleteGot it. Interesting symbol.
ReplyDeleteGuess we need to watch HK now instead of EU. Unreal.
ReplyDeleteBlack Friday, bro.
ReplyDeleteJust about every other global stock market index is near its low of the year, and the US is near the high?
ReplyDeleteNew 52-wk low hit in Shanghai: 2132.63
ReplyDeleteOf course, all of this will have reversed by the time we wake up in the morning.
ReplyDeleteFutures up nicely this morning before the jobs report. Europe up about 0.5%
ReplyDeleteIt all could change at 8:30 though...
Charts of the Asset Management companies (AB, BLK, JNS, SEIC, etc.) appear to have bottomed and are moving upwards now - bullish indicator for the market.
ReplyDeletehmmm...EWP and EWI basically at lows...EUR/USD also at lows. perhaps today is a short term top again?
ReplyDeleteplacing stink bids on MITK: 10k shs at $6.6
ReplyDeleteCSTR-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.engadget.com/2012/01/05/warner-bros-pushing-movie-delays-from-28-to-56-days-for-netflix/?a_dgi=aolshare_twitter
Looks like today will be slow around here (hopefully:)). I've reached my absolute limit for billable hours this week.
ReplyDeleteTaking a break till Monday. Gonna meet up w/ some old buddies and explore Tampa.
2nd- No worries about Shanghai. Still in a very bullish descending wedge. Just a matter of time.
Jesse- Was just going to ask you about China :)
ReplyDeleteThis is the best site I've found for coverage.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings
jesse- I noticed Shanghai did in fact reverse to close with a decent gain.
ReplyDeleteDANG @ 5.08.
ReplyDeleteYep that's me Mark (MITK). I'm a fool. Back in...all in.
ReplyDeleteI suggest DANG announce a slim version of the Amazon tablet and call it the Fat Lady. Should be good for a 20% spike in the stock price.
ReplyDeleteIt's OK, man. We're all addicts here.
ReplyDeleteWell, so much for taking a break. All in MITK $7.52 avg. What an idiot I am.
ReplyDeleteBut I honestly think this thing has a monster move coming up soon. Needham investor presentation next week. Speculation is they will disclose info about mobile bill pay there. The talk is that Chase is the customer, which would be huge for them. With Chase on board promoting it, the hype in this stock will return in full force. I should have never bailed on ye, old faithful. I paid for it...now have about 1,400 less shares than before because of this.
The way I see it: I'm going to be away from the markets for the next few days...the odds of MITK spiking UP are far greater given a 40% drop in shares since October than a giant drop. $7 has been defended over and over. Shorts piled up on the stock. At this point they HAVE to be frustrated about not being able to break it down. Therefore, it goes higher...much much higher.
ReplyDeleteI look forward to checking in from time to time to see it zoom higher. My target is $11 initially but I think it gets to $20 this year.
The way I see it: I'm going to be away from the markets for the next few days...the odds of DANG spiking UP are far greater given an 11% drop in shares since October than a giant drop. $5 has been defended over and over. Shorts piled up on the stock. At this point they HAVE to be frustrated about not being able to break it down. Therefore, it goes higher...much much higher.
ReplyDeleteI look forward to checking in from time to time to see it zoom higher. My target is $6 initially but I think it gets to $14 this year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&feature=endscreen&v=-SVzzhN-hQI
ReplyDelete2nd thats plagiarism bro
ReplyDeleteNo, it's a compliment.
ReplyDeleteTOF -- good job walking away from that PEIX piece of ... with a gain! I got stuck with it and now I am sitting on a $600 loss...
ReplyDeleteThere is a slight hope that this morning's break below this week's lows was supposed to shake out all weak hands and now the stock can start moving up. However, if it breaks this morning's lows, then I should probably bail.
CAAS and WATG are ripping higher today. SORL is sure to be next, as it is in the same sector.
ReplyDeleteNice to see SVM flat and AUMN down just a little on the day when SLV is down much more. Since mid-December, we started a new chapter in the miners book, when they are in favor relative to the metal.
ReplyDeleteNice to have you back in the fold TOF :)
ReplyDeleteGuys, keep an eye on T3D's MDW. It's almost in my buy zone 1.90ish.
CAAS. Any news David?
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/317719-10-takeover-lbo-targets-being-snapped-up-by-hedge-funds?source=yahoo
ReplyDelete1. E-Commerce China Dangdang Inc. (DANG): Operates as a business-to-consumer e-commerce company in the People's Republic of China. Market cap of $387.63M. Takeover/LBO rumor sourced from Seeking Alpha. Net institutional shares purchased over the current quarter at 5.5M, which is 19.75% of the company's 27.85M share float. The stock has had a couple of great days, gaining 5.84% over the last week.
What's important is not whether it plays out. I'm posting to let you know what's out there.
"CAAS. Any news David?"
ReplyDeleteDon't know, Mark. Maybe the news is that the Chinese auto parts stocks have bottomed?
Maybe the fat Morgan lady will turn the tables on the CEO and broker a hostile LBO. The stock price might jump in response to a new CEO in and of itself.
ReplyDeleteI'll take a flying leap into the unknown and offer BIDU as a buyer for the company.
ReplyDeleteHave a great weekend!
ReplyDeleteTRID - "1/4/2011 - Trident files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection"
ReplyDeleteWhere you been CP???
ReplyDeleteI've been here sitting on my hands. Lowered my stop-limit bid on SDOW to $25.70 from $26.70 and thinking of selling some SVM early next week, in order to add to SDOW.
ReplyDeleteI must have missed it. Did you get some SDOW?
ReplyDeletePEIX - I'm thinking $1.05 might be an important line in the sand, with a $0.95 target if the close was under $1.05, and $0.86, then $0.60 next lower support levels.
ReplyDeleteAlmost seems like the DOW has decoupled from the EURO though, so next week is a complete mystery for me. Could be euros are being dumped to buy US assets, then at some point the trade reverses once the fate of the euro is determined?
SDOW - Nope, but I've got my eye on it in case the market reverses. RSI's were pretty high last I checked, could have one more upside push?
ReplyDeleteSo I moved my SDOW bid closer by $1, but it wasn't hit.
SDOW- Got it. Isn't that a buy limit and not a stop limit though???
ReplyDeleteThe PEIX bid moved up to $1.05 after hours, and the latest trade was executed at $1.08, so all is not lost for me yet. :) However, I *will* exit this position if PEIX drops below $1. I just don't want to place a hard stop ahead of time, since I know the market makers will move the price to hit my stop first thing in the morning, just like they jerked up the stock yesterday to hit my buy stop at $1.20.
ReplyDeleteSDOW - Buy stop limit bid, limit is $25.70 and stop is $25.75
ReplyDeleteThis way, if the price jumps above $25.75, the order won't fill.
That is, the order can only fill if/when the price is between $25.70 and $25.75 during market hours. A buy-stop(no limit) bid would become a market order if the price was above the stop order price.
ReplyDeleteChinese material stocks heating up. Traders positioning for a big surge out of the bottoming formation in China.
ReplyDeleteCNAM up 40%
SHZ up 12%
CHGS up 24%
CPSL up 10%
The big daddy crossover has officially triggered for the S+P (DOW a couple weeks ago). There's no going back.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&i=p95970636395&a=226371293&r=135
Jesse- I know a couple of other traders that love the 13/34 weekly. Why?
ReplyDelete"Jesse- I know a couple of other traders that love the 13/34 weekly. Why?"
ReplyDeleteGoing back 15 years or so, the 3 other times this has happened, the 1 year S+P return was between 25 and 40%. Yet another one of my themes for the 2012 Face Rip:)
OK, thanks. Works for me!
ReplyDeleteDECK looks great here. I'll have to get over my hatred of Ugg's though.
ReplyDeleteShanghai weekly rsi (14) 28.56
ReplyDelete4 weekly rounding bottoming tails.
Constructive bottoming action.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SSEC&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p58986454547&a=159267632&r=746
Shanghai should have a 200 point weekly move (10%)when it breaks out of this pattern.
ReplyDeleteDang, that's quite a move:)
Tried to buy some SORL today, but there was not volume around the market prices and I didn't think there was a rush to pay up for it.
ReplyDeleteWill try again Monday, but hope still get a chance with CASS and WATG doing what they're doing.
BB- You know your business,but I'd stay away from WATG unless it's gambling money. Maybe try CAAS, at least it's listed on the NAZ.
ReplyDeleteWATG is a high-risk play now. I am not even sure their plants are still running, as they haven't reported any financial results for more than a year now. Also, it is not clear what adjustments to the shareholder's equity will be made once they finish "undoing" all the illegal transactions they have done.
ReplyDeleteCAAS and SORL, on the other hand, seem to be legit. An accounting issue was already uncovered with CAAS, by they made it clear that it only pertains to the model they used to price outstanding warrants. They have corrected their model and now they seem to be out of the woods. No accounting "irregularities" have been observed with SORL at all.
Ouch!!..."Morgan Stanley discloses 16% ownership interest in @zynga http://t.co/xOZ2fBT3"
ReplyDeleteU don't like uggs? I seriously had issues with cali girls in uggs for a while. If I met a hot girl and she had uggs it made her that much hotter to me. I still have rubberncking issues with it.
ReplyDeleteJesse did that crossover work b4 1995?
I just got the USB cable for my DANG Flaming Fat Woman.
ReplyDeleteI sure hope DANG doesn't turn into DAMN.
Added 1000 more at 4.94. WTF....
Damn- I read the above as 'call girls' the first go-round and was about to say your marriage saved you.
ReplyDeleteCraig- Yes, I'll be careful not to let DANG turn into another Birch Mountain -----.
ReplyDeleteUgg's in San Diego!!??? Are you kidding me? What's it get down to at night 65? The only thing I'd like to see on some hot SD babes feet is sand.
ReplyDeleteApt. vacancies are at a 10 year low. Rates at a 8 yr. high.
ReplyDeleteI read call girls twice!
ReplyDeleteMark- You and tof have a knack for pointing out the obvious. It's warm in San Diego, so naturally girls tend to be hot. And if they're wearing UGG boots, they'll be even hotter. If I happened to see a girl down there wearing UGGs, I'd probably turn around for a second look also. But I can't say I would have serious issues with it- it's California, man.
ReplyDelete2nd- OK, that's clever!!
ReplyDeletebtw, there are good-til-canceled hit contracts out on all names on this list:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/companyOfficers?symbol=BHMNF.PK&WTmodLOC=C4-Officers-5
I'm pretty sure Craig ordered the hits.
ReplyDeleteIf I hit all eleven of 'em, I might make back half of what I lost.
ReplyDeletePart of my large collection of stories.
ReplyDeleteIt's incredible the number of sins one good trade can cover, bro.
ReplyDeleteAll this talk about BMD has me reaching for a 6-pack.
ReplyDeleteAh..So BMD is your Salieri. Mine is ADXM...So simple really... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ciFTP_KRy4
ReplyDeleteAh yes, F'ing Birch Mountain. How long ago was that loss? Funny how you don't forget.....
ReplyDeleteMy wife loves her Ugg's and I kid her about wearing Sonny Bono's boots.
Prepare for the time machine.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ov_Vh6FvcgQ&feature=related
This blog has the most interesting information ever. Read this and see if you don't mourn the loss of REAL greatness in America.
ReplyDeletehttp://tywkiwdbi.blogspot.com/2012/01/i-have-new-favorite-president.html#more
My wife and daughters tell me UGGS keep your feet cool in hot weather, so you can where them all year (although I find it hard to believe).
ReplyDeleteDECK has done a great job of marketing UGGS, but the knockoffs are arriving in full force, so I wonder if they'll be able to protect their prices. You can get Chinese copies for $30 and Costco had some for $60 recently.
TOF- Not sure about pre'95 on the crossover to be honest.
ReplyDeleteW/ major world indexes severely oversold on the weekly and monthly- Shanghai, Nikkei, India...basically anything in Asia and Europe, my guess is that the crossover takes hold in a big way as these major world indexes chug out of severely oversold conditions.
The big story for 2012 will be the big Ultrabook transition cycle for Enterprise users.
ReplyDeleteIntel will sell a TON of i5 and i7 chips made for Ultrabooks.
Enterprise users need very light weight (they're constantly traveling), they need 2 second instant-on (the day of 1-2 minute boot times is over forever), they need 10+ hour battery life for the road, and quite frankly they really want the design of these machines.
The semis should do very well this year. I saw the Asus "Zenbook" in Indonesia a couple weeks ago. I simply said "Holy Shit!"
Wow, as I write this, I see through all of the market crap we've dealt with, Intel is on the cusp of breaking out to 4 year highs. 2nd??
And all of the Ultrabooks by all of the manufacturers will be announced at CES- early next week.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is that might not be too negative for the market.
SORL is the only one I am interested in for now. Want to stay as far away from accounting issues with China as possible.
ReplyDeleteI've got a lot of MASC (US auto parts maker) that I bought under $2 that is now around $8 that I plan to sell part of to fund this and it is hard to sell also as a low volume stock.
I also own another Chinese company - DSWL. They've do plastics mouldings and electronics assemblies. They've been on the Nasdaq a long time (so aren't as likley to have accounting issues), pay a dividend, have a good balance sheet and are trading for just over cash value. They've been having some profitability issues lately with the wage raises in China, but I think they can deal with this and get their stock back up.