Anything based on human nature is simultaneously unpredictable, yet highly predictable. For instance, I don't know which side will win, yet I know a winner will emerge.
On deck for day trades on Tuesday- EZU, DANG, SORL, AA, INTC, HIG, cash- each for different reasons.
Barkeep! Whatever jesse's having tonight, gimme a double.
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty happy tonight. Not sure why, exactly. Today was my last day off before returning to a regular schedule. Capped off the day by driving the little guy to his weekly tutoring session at the library, where I've asked the tutor to make sure he always makes a 1-min presentation/speech to the packed crowd of peers at the Homework Center at the end of each session. Of course he's scared- but he does it. Today the speech was 40 sec (timed by the lady who runs the center) on the 2012 Olympics. He did fine.
ReplyDeleteAnother 5-star film: Aftershock, about a 6-year-old girl left behind by her Mom following the 1976 Beijing earthquake. Instant download on NFLX.
ReplyDeleteIBB - Anyone notice that the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (NBI, and IBB in ETF form) is on a roll, both long and short term?
ReplyDeletehttp://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/nasdaqbiotech_activity.stm (7 yr comparison chart)
http://www.forbes.com/sites/etfchannel/2012/01/04/ibb-etf-inflow-alert/?partner=yahootix (short term)
Maybe its due to no financials in the index or its considered immune to EURO problems.
Sure is Illini. I didn't know that one existed. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteNice catch, illini.
ReplyDeleteCan we get the sell-off out of the way, please.
ReplyDeleteI just can't get with the program until we sell off.
ReplyDeleteIt gets scary on Thursday and Friday when Italy and Spain try to sell some bonds.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- you forgot to add AUMN to that list. :) The $USD index is breaking down, S&P futures are breaking out, and so GDXJ can easily have a very nice day tomorrow. If it does, then AUMN can have an AWESOME day tomorrow, now that the impatient weak hands have sold the initial gains from Tuesday's jump.
ReplyDeleteDavid- I've said it before- I have no doubt the metals go parabolic at some point- but I wouldn't want to predict when.
ReplyDeleteGuys MITK is another momo stock that is gonna go gangbusters very soon. They have an investor presentation at Needham on 1/11/12 and there's speculation that they will announce a mobile bill pay customer and that it will be Chase.
ReplyDeleteI honestly think it will have a 50% move shortly...which is why I'm long the stock.
CVV, NFLX, CAAS...wow.
Warning....
ReplyDeleteCompressing volatility in indices indicates a move one way or the other and these moves many times give false signals and reverse to the downside.
Indices and USD have several days finishing flat into triangle patterns. The same as Peter Brandt noticed with silver before it broke down instead of up.
No predictions, but Landry is warning it tends to be to the downside. If it goes higher then he will wait and then enter after confirmation.
Still seeing the overhead supply....
FYI: I'm long DANG, AEN, NLS (getting close), PEIX, AUMN.
Double warning: We have a short gold stock tonight which is unusual. See USD chart (triangle) and Euro chart (persistent down).
I will be selling into any possible strength and then waiting for confirmation.
Look at wall street darlings GOOG, COST..debacle de jours.
Personally I am encouraged by the after market in DANG.
It seems a little weird to hope for a down day for USD but it is what it is.....
IBB: 12 days of pullback, I would want to see it get going sooner. Of course about the time you throw in the towel they take off.
ReplyDeleteGOOG? Isn't that just breaking down to prior resistance? And I would hardly call it a wall st darling...it has been a dog for a while.
ReplyDeleteBut I agree it could be a big move either way. With an improving economy in the US a blowup in Europe should be contained somewhat...and even if it hits us history shows that it will be a moot point within 12 to 18 months regardless.
David said...
ReplyDeleteHere is a quote from Hussman about the recession risk: "Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has noted if the U.S. gets through the second quarter of this year without falling into recession, "then, we're wrong." Frankly, I'll be surprised if the U.S. gets through the first quarter without a downturn.".....
David, thx for the Hussman comments on ECRI. And now we have a good time frame to work with. This is the first comment I've seen on ECRI since Jon Markman mentioned it in one of postings back in November I think.
Yeah, well, for what it's worth he also warned the service to not get too enthralled with the bull argument and wait.
ReplyDelete-9% in three days in GOOG. You can call it what you want. I call it losing money. COST knocked down below the 200 dma.
I'm talking about MY money. You can do what you want with yours! I can do a lot in 12 to 18 mos besides sit around down or losing money. To ME it seems wise to wait for confirmation.
Sold my Jan and Feb spy calls both for a loss. It's ok to have a really big rally day now. The jan was a small position but the Feb was the long call side of a strangle. The strangle was up the first week I put it on but I was holding on for bigger gains to the upside that certainly didn't happen as soon as I had hoped. I may go out to Mar for more but mostly I'm just content to reduce my time decaying positions for now
ReplyDeleteAlso sold some Feb 30 calls on my long T position for $.44 I did get past the ex div date of 1/6/12.
Still net long but not doing much. Mad says the risk is increasing for a flash crash but I don't really understand his logic about why other than the further in time we go without one means we are closer to the next one. That logic fits with almost anything.
Markman is still long but ready to exit everything at a moments notice
Personally I find myself struggling to pay attn to the markets these days. It might be time to sit on the side with a few long dated calls and just watch.
Watched the new version of True Grit this weekend plus I had tickets to the Texans playoff game. It's a lot more fun when you win. I didn't even log in to my trading accounts.
Wasn't all the GOOG stuff related to a analysts note about Android sales? APPL got 'crushed' a month or so ago and has now hit another high. That GS upgraded it scares me though!!!
ReplyDeleteWe should have played my INVN call. Too bad.
mark - great pt with AAPL man. I think traders are reading too much into a few days worth of action in particular stocks. GOOG and COST got "crushed"? well, what about CAT and GE and BAC?
ReplyDelete"Personally I am encouraged by the after market in DANG."
ReplyDeleteAs for me, I am encouraged by the after market in $USD & gold/silver. :) Now add to this the fact that S&P hit new highs for the year after hours, and it looks like we are all set to have a big up day for PMs and the miners tomorrow...
http://kpcb.com/insights/internet-trends-2011
ReplyDeleteCheck out p. 11...interesting chart. Mary Meeker is saying that 2012 will see huge mobile growth. She pointed out that penetration of the U.S. market by smartphones is happening at a faster clip than penetration by the Internet. Mitek baby!
GE: Has gone sideways for one year. Lately 15 to 18.80? I wouldn't turn down $3-$4 but it is now at resistance. What is the catalyst that gets it through the overhead? Not my kind of stock, too big and thick. Risk/reward is $2 struggling up/$3 down. WTF?
ReplyDeleteCAT: Looks exactly like the indices. Sideways for the last year. Also at resistance. Too big and thick to make anything.
BAC? You can have BAC. I think BAC is a short.
Giving up on Merrill acounts under 250K, discontinued preferred stock, issued more shares of common stock to raise funds, all signs of trouble. Chart in a persistant downtrend. WHY?
It also has a lot of overhead/resistance until $8. I'm not putting my money in BAC as a bank, much less as a stock.
We are still flat/sideways. Wake me up when we get a direction, AKA a trend.
Clarification. "Crushed" is your word. I used Landry's term, "debacle de jour". AKA a knockout pattern. I would think crushed would be more serious than a knockout, but a knockout of a big retailer and GOOG is not a sign of strength.
The year is 6 trading days old and we are still flat and haven't broken 128.38 and closed above it. Not that I don't want it to go up, but let's be realistic. Wishing doesn't make it so.
This is a "show me" market.
CVV news out after the bell. 2011 orders not trending so hot. Backlog should be down approximately 20% at year end.
ReplyDeleteNew orders:
1Q: $16.6mm
2Q: $8.0mm
3Q: $6.4mm
4Q: ~$5.0mm
Yahoo headline: "China Trade Growth Slows to 2 Year Lows in December".
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, Shanghai is having its biggest 3 day rally in 15 months, well on its way to its 200 point reversal week.
Anybody checked out bottoming action of EUFN on the weekly? Me thinks something is going to make this market blow through the roof this week. Probably some more EU rescue BS.
Check out the mutual fund money flows up until 12/28/11:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ici.org/research/stats/flows/flows_01_04_12
Investors kept cashing out of equity funds, moving into $USD and into bond funds. It looks like this trend has been around since at least August. When that trend reverses, the rising tide will lift ALL boats...
Folks, superimpose the charts for DANG and for AUMN over the past 1 month -- they look almost identical! Both of them made their lows on December 19, then rallied like crazy on the 20th, then made a higher low on 28/29th, then broke out to new highs, and now they are both having a small pullback so as to consolidate the recent gains.
ReplyDeleteWhat we are seeing is not a coincidence -- there is a "sea change" happening. So, what happened on the 20th when all POS stocks rallied like crazy? The risk switch was flipped ON! Is it still ON? YES! How do I know? I just saw it at
http://www.markit.com/en/products/data/indices/credit-and-loan-indices/cdx/cdx-prices-iframe.page?
The credit spreads of high-yield bonds (CDX.NA.HY) have collapsed on December 20th and are still down!
When this "sea change", so far observed only by Smart Money, becomes noticeable to retail investors, they WILL start moving their money back from $USD and bonds into equities, and the resulting rally will go on for a LOOONG time...
$USD futures just stages a massive short covering rally, and silver/S&P futures barely retreated from their highs. As soon as $USD gave back only 1/3 of that rally, silver/S&P futures sprang back up ... to NEW HIGHS! No one is afraid of the big bad wolf anymore! But whenever the wolf retreats a little, the piglets actually start running forward! The risk is ON!
ReplyDeletecc - the average stock has what a 40% range in any given yr? to cherry pick two stocks that dropped 1/4 of that and say the mkt is not strong is a bit too drastic in my opinion, especially when plenty of other stocks are strong.
ReplyDeletei know what the sentiment surveys are saying but most trader comments i read on blogs / media outlets suggest that there just HAS to be a pullback. makes me wonder if we dont just shoot to prior highs
ReplyDeleteGood news from SORl this morning:
ReplyDeleteSORL Will Supply 70% of Brake Systems to Zoomlion Crane Trucks In 2012
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SORL-Will-Supply-70-Brake-prnews-848240085.html?x=0
Sounds from the press release that Zoomlion is the CAT of China - no $'s mentioned, but a good vote of confidence.
FYI - Canadian Venture Exchange stocks (read small-cap miners) have the highest insider buying of the year (6 times a year ago) and moving upwards while TSX main index retreating.
ReplyDeleteBodes well stocks like AUMN.
BMO calling for $32.50 price in Silver for 2012. I've copied some of the highlights below, but the key is that investment demand for silver is required to keep the market in balance. Supply is expected to be 53 million ounces over demand, excluding investment demand. Investment demand over / under this 53 million will drive the price. Currently the Silver ETF's hold about 560 million ounces of silver. It is easy to see how this could become a source of supply in a declining market or a source of demand in an increasing market.
ReplyDeleteCOMEX silver inventories are now sitting at ~122Moz, up approx. 30% since hitting a bottom in late June and ~4% over the last week alone.
The last time COMEX silver inventories were at the current 122Moz level, the silver price was approximately US$13.00/oz, ~55% lower than where it is today.
The net speculative position is at an 8-year low, though speculative long positions did rebound to near pre-Q4/11 levels in the first week of 2012.
The low level of net speculative positions suggests that current prices are supported by the metal’s fundamentals, rather than speculation.
ETF silver flows reversed trend in 2011, with a net outflow estimated at ~27Moz silver over the year, versus a net inflow of over 110Moz in 2010.
ETF flows dropped by another few million ounces in the first week of 2012, and are sitting over 40Moz below peak April 2011 levels.
BMO Research notes that its 2012E supply surplus forecast of ~4Moz is predicated on a meaningful rebound in silver ETF inflows and coin demand over the next 12 months.
The silver forward curve is in backwardation, well below month-ago levels but above where it was in the last week of December.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteEdited post:
ReplyDeleteWorldwide stock markets trigger follow-through day. Bull market buy signal boys and girls. This is for real. Today is day 6. Right in the sweet spot. Europe up around 3% which would be a major buy signal should it not completely fall apart in the next 4 hours.
IBD
"The market's price-and-volume action gives clear signs of the market's direction. A follow-through day gives you the biggest of head starts -- timing the market's bottom. (Day 1 was 1st trading day of the year). The next two sessions, Days 2 and 3, don't need to show much in the way of gains...For a follow-through to occur, you want it to land between Day 4 and Day 7 of the attempted rally. On any one of those days, you're looking for one or more of the major indexes -- the Nasdaq, S&P 500 or Dow -- to rise 1.7% or more in higher volume than the previous day....Though a follow-through in that span gives the strongest signal for a new rally, one that hits anywhere between Day 4 and Day 10 can work. Follow-throughs that occur after Day 10 yield lower success rates.
Though this method may seem esoteric at first, keep in mind it has decades of IBD research behind it."
Miner's should rock. MDW upd
ReplyDeleteMidway Gold Corp. (MDW:$2.07,00$0.01,000.49%) ("Midway" or the "Company") announces that it now qualifies as a Development Stage Entity under SEC Guide 7 guidelines. Midway completed a detailed Feasibility Study on its Pan gold project in White Pine County, Nevada that contains the information necessary for the project to be deemed economically feasible. A NI 43-101 technical report summarizing the Feasibility Study has been filed under the Company’s profile on SEDAR. In addition, a mine plan of operations has been submitted to the US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Nevada Department of Environmental Quality (NDEP). The BLM has notified Midway that the plan has been deemed complete, beginning an environmental study process.
Additionally, on January 1, 2012, the Company became an accelerated filer according to SEC guidelines. Consequently, the Company is not currently in compliance with the audit committee composition requirements set forth in Section 803B(2)(a) of the NYSE Amex Company Guide in that the Company only has two independent directors appointed to the Company’s audit committee rather than three. On January 2, 2012, the Company notified the NYSE Amex of its need to appoint a third independent director and on January 4, 2012 the Company received confirmation from the NYSE Amex regarding its obligations. As disclosed in its November 11, 2011 press release, the Board intends to appoint a third independent director to the Company’s audit committee in the very near future and no later than by the Company’s next annual general meeting of shareholders, ensuring compliance within the allowable cure period set forth in Section 803B(6)(b) of the NYSE Amex Company Guide.
The results of a Feasibility Study (FS) for the Pan gold project in White Pine County, Nevada demonstrated robust economics. The NPV of the project accelerates from $123 million at $1,200/oz gold to $344M at $1,900/oz gold. The IRR grows from 32% to 79% using the same range. Both use a 5% discount rate and are after tax figures. The project has Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves of 864,000 oz of gold within 48.3M tonnes at a grade of 0.56 grams per tonne (gpt) gold.
Table 1.After Tax Project Economics at Selected Gold Prices (US$)
Gold price/oz $1,200 $1,550 $1,725 $1,900
NPV @ 5%$123M $235M $290M $344M
IRR32% 56% 67% 79%
Payback years2.59 1.70 1.41 1.20
Payback multiple2.88 4.53 5.40 6.30
Pan is an oxidized gold deposit with a low strip ratio (1.79:1), mineable by open pit methods and treatable by heap leaching. These parameters result in a low capex project with anticipated very favorable economics. The mine plan used in the FS is based on producing 17,000 short tons of ore per day over an 8 year period. Ore will be crushed, agglomerated, and placed on a heap leach pad. Gold recoveries are estimated to average 75%; annual production is expected to exceed 81,000 oz of gold per year.
The capital costs to build the mine are estimated to be $99M which includes $8.2M working capital and $6.8M contingency. The operating cash cost is projected to be $585/oz which includes royalties, state taxes, and a 5% contingency. The total production cost including capital is projected to be $824/oz.
Mineral Reserves were based upon a design pit using Lerchs Grossmann generated pit surfaces that maximize revenue based on a $1,200 per ounce three-year trailing average price of gold.
Continuing:
ReplyDeleteCutoff grades of 0.21 gpt in the South pit and 0.27 gpt in the North & Central pits produced the project’s highest NPV.
Table 2:Total Pan Mineral Reserves, November 2011
Pit
Area Cutoff Grade
(grams/tonne) Metric Tonnes
(x 1000) Gold Grade
(grams/tonne) Ounces Gold
(x 1000)
Proven
North & Central 0.27 13,085 0.60 251
South 0.21 12,160 0.61 236
All Pits 25,245 0.60 487
Probable
North & Central 0.27 10,994 0.50 178
South 0.21 12,073 0.51 199
All Pits 23,067 0.51 377
Proven plus Probable
North & Central 0.27 24,078 0.55 429
South 0.21 24,233 0.56 435
All Pits 48,3110.56864
Note: The tonnage and total ounces of gold were determined from the statistical block model. Average grades were calculated from the tonnage and total ounces and then rounded to the significant digits shown. Calculations based on this table may differ due to the effect of rounding.
The latest estimate of Mineral Resources is 1.13M oz of gold comprised of 579,000 oz gold in 37M tonnes of 0.49 gpt gold in the Measured category and 551,000 oz gold in 43M tonnes of 0.40 gpt gold in the Indicated category using a 0.14 gpt gold cutoff grade (see NI 43-101 effective Sept. 1, 2011; filed Nov. 2, 2011). Mineral Resources are inclusive of the Mineral Reserves reported above.
Mineralization at North Pan remains open at depth where many drill holes have bottomed in mineralization. North Pan is also open to the north where limited drilling shows that the gold zone continues below post-mineral volcanics. At South Pan, the deposit remains open at depth, to the south and to the east. Midway plans to complete 14,000 meters of development drilling in 2012 targeted to further expand the Pan resource.
The FS and open pit Mineral Reserves and Resources were completed by Gustavson Associates, LLC (“Gustavson”) of Lakewood, Colorado, with Terre Lane and Donald E. Hulse acting as the Qualified Persons.
This release has been reviewed and approved for Midway by William S. Neal (M.Sc., CPG), Vice President of Geological Services of Midway, a "qualified person" as that term is defined in NI 43-101.
Natty tests recent lows at 2.98 and spikes higher. Natty will have a 30% one month surge once it breaks out of its bottom formation.
ReplyDeleteFWIW, these are my longs, clearly not in the mkt cap range of most here.
ReplyDeleteDVN
GTU
NYX
SLB
MDW
ANR
Recent ones that I've sold and wish I had back MSFT, BRCM, NXPI. Good luck today boys and girls.
Gundlach, thinks Natty is where gold was 20 years ago, I bet he is right.
ReplyDeleteMay take a bite of MITK today.
Landry:
ReplyDelete"Got Random Thoughts:
Did LSU play last night?
Well, it was another flat day. This action keeps the indices near short-term resistance and below a ton of overhead supply.
As I told my peeps in the service, as boring as this is, it does
have the volatility compressed and due to revert back to its mean
(see Dave Landry on Swing Trading). So, it looks like we'll see
that expansion sooner rather than later-futures are up big
pre-market.
This action will put the market above short-term resistance but it
will still have to deal with a mountain of overhead supply.
The other thing to be leery of is the fact that expansion of
volatility moves are often false ones. They're often better faded
than traded.
There are some continued interesting developments in the Euro and
the Dollar. Both remain in trends, down and up respectively. This
could put some pressure on the indices.
You know me though. I'm not going to think too much. Continue to take things one day at a time. If the market can plow through all
the overhead supply, then I'm all in. If not, then I'm somewhere in between--picking my spots carefully, taking a "stab" here and there.
Best of luck with your trading today!
S&P Target - 1397
ReplyDeletesold GTU, NYX, SLB, ANR
ReplyDeleteI like the IRE pick Jesse.
ReplyDeleteGo AUMN!!
ReplyDeleteP LNKD etc.
ReplyDeleteInternet stocks should heat up
VIX, TVIX, VXX now have a big gap down on the weekly. Not very bullish. hmmm..
ReplyDeleteThere goes SORL...that has room to at least $3.50
ReplyDeleteQIHU has actually fared far better than the other China stocks.
ReplyDeleteNQ is the best of the bunch...that one seems legit...and cheap.
Sorry, big gap on daily for vix etc.
ReplyDeleteLong ANR 21.50 that was sold at 21.79, coal demand is not going to go away, China denmand will rise. Plus they have been crushed
ReplyDeleteSold ANR 21.64
ReplyDeleteHer comes the next push, positive.
ReplyDeleteStopped out of UNG -.03. Exited IRE for a nominal gain as its not popping. W/ TVIX and friends gapping down another 8%, seems a little euphoric.
ReplyDeleteCautious, not bearish. Moving into the "protection" of the widow maker at 6.42 w/ a very short leash. I may put some funds in BOIL.
Amazing thing is that w/ major Shanghai push, DANG hasn't rocketed out of its base....yet.
ReplyDeleteLong ANR 21.37 most likely let this sit till end of day unless mkt really starts to roll over.
ReplyDeleteOn an interesting note most of my holdings were at there high during pre-market exhale. I could have let DVN go at 67 which is higher than its high today.
ReplyDeleteHave been using IBKR brokers for a month now and really like their platform for trading and lower commish. What I have noticed is that its better to trade plus $10 stocks at IB and Fido for sub $10. FWIW
I'm going to sit back and watch the action for awhile, yeah right. later
Dow almost 500 points above its 10wma and nudging trendline from prior tops. In this bull run, Dow will test its 10wma many, many times on the way up. Slowly moving to the short term cautious camp after tons of stuff have exploded over the past week.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&i=p49637890819&a=226371294&r=308
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletefrom Cashin:
ReplyDeleteThe Pause That Refreshes - Maybe - The remarkable Jason Goepfert mines through historic data better than almost
anybody. In his latest SentimenTrader, he came up with two interesting oddities. One concerned the unusually narrow
range in the S&P over the last four days. Here’s a bit of what he noted:
A Very (Very Very Very) Tight Range
The S&P 500 futures have now closed the past four days with the following returns: +0.07%, +0.01%, +0.09%
and +0.08%, according to Bloomberg.
That's remarkable. Since 1982, there was only one other time they managed to go four days with no more than
a +/- 0.1% change. That was 9/28/05, after which the market popped higher over the next few days, then
dropped.
Given this morning’s action in Europe that could be the setup for a breakout, taking us up through the strong resistance at
S&P 1285/1295.
Care should be taken, because, as noted, such moves are often false breakouts. It will be worth watching.
and
ReplyDeleteWhat Follows Wild And Wooly - The other thing that Jason Goepfert analyzed was the aftermath of extremely volatile
trading. Certainly 2011 was about as volatile as we’ve ever seen. Here’s what he discovered:
2011 - NOT A Tight Range
My pal Tony Dwyer, Chief Equity Strategist at Collins Stewart, had asked if there was a good way to show the
"all or nothing" environment we experienced in 2011.
One of the better reflections of that is the number of 90% volume days we saw. These are days where almost all
volume flowed either into "up" stocks or "down" stocks each day.
In 2011, we had 44 of those days. Dating back to 1940, the only other year that exceeded 2011's total was
1946, which had 46. Breadth was extremely volatile in the 40s, though, and since then there hadn't been a year
with more than 35 all-or-nothing days. That year was 2008.
There was a high negative correlation between the number of these days and that year's return in the S&P. In
other words, the more lopsided days we saw, the lower the S&P's return.
There was a very slight positive correlation for the next year, which would be a positive for 2012. As we've
discussed often, there are structural reasons like high-frequency trading that are influencing the breadth
readings, so we may not be able to read a whole lot into that.
That history would seem to suggest another lackluster performance in 2012, even with the election. But, since there’s such a
small sample (rare occurrence), it may not be prudent to extrapolate.
gun to head, we hold these prices and push higher into the close.
ReplyDeleteTel-
ReplyDeleteThanks for the Sentimentrader comments. Love 'em.
HSOL breaking
ReplyDeleteSOL looks good too.
All solars
ANR sold 21.45
ReplyDeleteEnjoy your comments too Jesse, thanks.
Watch for capitulation in XCO today.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the MDW notes T3D. I'll read them when I get back.
ReplyDeleteCiao.
SOX extended gap up into 200 dma. Not a place where I want to be buying.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SOX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p09933304630&a=126223761&r=604
If I didn't use margin, I would be a big buyer of BOIL here at 19.95 w/ a stop around 19.75. This thing is going to explode very soon. Weekly chart is coiled. Looks like a rubber band.
ReplyDeleteoil to gas ($wtic:$natgas on stockcharts) at 34.85 today w/ a weekly rsi (14) at 73.76.
ReplyDeleteThe only other time it reached these levels on the weekly, natty doubled in one month.
WTF there goes my posts again.
ReplyDeleteWow I didn't realize SORL has a $8.76 book value. Who is their auditor?
I have to drive to a meeting at work now, but the morning action so far looks like a natural continuation of what we saw yesterday: as long as $USD is not rallying big time, everything is up huge. As I posted last night: no one is afraid of the Big Bad wolf anymore!
ReplyDelete"Amazing thing is that w/ major Shanghai push, DANG hasn't rocketed out of its base....yet. "
ReplyDeleteThe same is true for SORL -- "watched kettle never boils" :)
There goes AUMN -- nice! I am glad I sold that PEIX dog yesterday and instead picked up 1K more shares of AUMN at $6.21!
ReplyDeleteDavid - Big Bad Wolf - At some point you'll be right about that. May as well be now, hadn't it?
ReplyDeleteZORTRADES:
ReplyDelete"I know the market is flying but a trade is a trade. Today we are looking at the semiconductor index, as of right now itS encountering some resistance at its 200 day moving average and the $390ish level. The $SOX is sporting an RSI2 reading of 99.48 and to boot it gapped above its upper bollinger band after 4 up days in a row, while that might be normal for a stock, it is unusual for an index/etf.
Ways to play it: short $SMH, or long an inverse like $SOXS, the stop level is breaking .10 cents above today’s high on the $SOX."
AA - Volume is high, wonder why it's not flying now?
ReplyDeleteMy guess is any overbought reading gets worked off by sideways action, which frustrates the shit out of bears and causes them to capitulate, thus sending stocks even higher eventually.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of frustration: MITK.
ReplyDeleteWhat a POS. But I still think it's got a monster truck rally coming soon. This whole mobile phone fad ain't going away any time soon.
PAL - Back to $3, almost, is it gonna break out of the down trend?
ReplyDeleteI'm not a huge fan of BC, but he is right about one thing, stocks are not bought, they are sold.
ReplyDeleteI am a technical trader (like Stephen Stewart for example) for this very reason. All this talk about MITK, PEIX, NLS, etc. etc. are just stories.
They may very well take off, but as noted we may also continue to move sideways or even reverse on this coiled volatility. From the looks of my screen the euro is down, the dollar is holding and we had a pop today after 6 sideways zero gain days. The jury is still out and the real story has yet to be told. We are still in the forward of the book.
Let's see how we do with the overhead going forward.
If we break though I'm all in, if not I'm hand sitting. Sold some DANG, AUMN and JVA into today's strength.
I hope we close higher but I'll buy the chart, not the story.
Good article on sentiment over at Bespoke talking about the Yale Crash Confidence Index - Individual Investors are almost as worried about a crash now as in early 2009:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/1/10/yales-crash-confidence-index-shows-just-how-fearful-investor.html
Good contrarian sign
Everyone has a story to tell man. Stories have always done me well in the market. My biggest winners all had great stories:
ReplyDeleteBIDU
MIX (owner of Myspace)
MITK
REDF
PIR
JSDA
TRLG
It all starts with a story.
Did u sell those at the highs again you dirty dog?!?
Well, not the highs but close. A guy has to make some $ some way. I was honest, I told everyone last night I would sell into strength and I expected some reversal. So far so good.
ReplyDeleteRead some interesting stuff at Peter Brandts site on all these triangle patterns we are seeing.
"A concluding note on the markets"
"The symmetrical triangle pattern is a pattern characterizing market confusion. Horizontal patterns (H&S, right angled triangles, rectangles, sloping patterns or horns, flat pennants, running wedges and a few others) have decisive directional biases. The fact so many markets currently display symmetrical triangles is a sign the markets are in a general state of confusion. Trade with caution!
There is a season to make money in the markets and a season to avoid big losses. We are in the
later."
I couldn't say it better.
CC,
ReplyDeleteI am a value trader, not technical like you, but the best stocks I find are ones no-one is trying to sell, in fact, ones no-one is paying any attention to is often best of all.
I'm finding a number of stocks now where they are practically giving them away - just buy them and wait for the market to notice. Most of them are in Canada, so I don't post here, but there's almost certainly good money to be made.
And if the more technically oriented traders here are correct about the market being ready to rock, we could have an outstanding year.
MITK - Upper trend line is $10, I think it can....
ReplyDeleteI'm good with that BB! But that means you have already taken positions and you won't be driving a rally if there is one, you will wait and sell into it. You have to wait for technical traders to see a trend or a buy signal to get on board.
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime I wait for symetrical risk, which for me is just getting out of this sideways action and through the resistance of the last year or so. If we do you will be doing quite nicely. I'm all for an outstanding year!
Even the Rupee has gained today...
ReplyDeleteBB - let me know which ones you are seeing. The ones I can think of are in the following sectors:
ReplyDeleteChina small caps
Shippers
Solar / alt energy
Of those I like SORL, DANG, EXM, EGLE, FRO...
IFN - Broke nicely out of it's two month downtrend with a gap up...
ReplyDeleteLDK - Retested it's 50sma a few days ago, now headed up as well.
ReplyDeleteFell asleep and found tow fill orders. SLB 70.57 and ANR 21.27 they will not hit MITK for me.
ReplyDeleteI just need to see if they run prices into the close. NYX was the one that got away from me. I was testing IB's sell all positions at once button to see how it worked this morning and was happy with all executions except NYX, my bad.
CC/TOF- Trade the chart w/ the story. The story gives you the cajones to hold on during the extreme volatility during an uptrend.
ReplyDeleteThe problem w/ some of these former momos (MITK etc.) is they still have the story, but not the chart.
I've been looking at PEIX for the past couple of hours. Great looking setup but I can't get over the fact that they did a PIPE in mid December. One of my rules is to never invest w/in 6 months or so after a private placement.
"I was testing IB's sell all positions at once button"
ReplyDeleteI guess you weren't the only one who did that about 25 minutes ago!
Yeah, I would say good fundamentals, intra-market support, a sound story and a good chart should be a winning combination.
ReplyDeleteThe trouble with 'former' momo's is they get used to fund present momo's. The trouble with DANG, as noted by Stewart, is the overhead makes for choppy going and they don't POP like a POP momo.
That isn't so bad for some traders.
My method is to simply wait for the trend and set stops outside the usual noise. Then you don't need to watch it and make yourself crazy with the ups and downs of normal noise. If the market takes you out then the stop has served it's purpose. It's this sideways stuff that sucks.
Nibbling on DANG @5.10
ReplyDeletePEIX may be the kiss after daylight (kisses the 50 dma and then takes off).
SLB SOLD 70.94, INTO SCALPING TODAY.
ReplyDeleteCC and Landry's concepts make sense to me.
TOF-
ReplyDeleteRemember a few days ago when I said IPGP weekly chart should revert to 50 Well, she's knocking on the door.
RIG solid base on the weekly. Should trade quite a bit higher. Lots of sound bases everywhere like IPGP, RIG etc.
ReplyDeleteIPGP was a great call Jes, Ilooked at that for four days and neva pull da trigga.
ReplyDeleteAnother Cry me a riva.
NYX was my first Cry me a River
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMwXPueu-RM
OK, I'm joining the party. Picked up some DAMN DANG 5.15. $5.00 is probably a good mental stop level. Probably will go when we least expect it... Smaller position than b4.
ReplyDeleteNormal price volatility on DANG recently has been down to 9.93 or so. My position is small enough I could add there and not freak out.
ReplyDeleteChecking in from work: AUMN looks even nicer now!
ReplyDeleteJust got the following response from AUMN PR in regards to my question about the delay in their resource estimate for El Quever:
"In early December, we announced that the Velardeña resource estimate's expected completion date was being moved back from around the end of Q4 2011 to the end of Q1 2012. This was due to the need to re-assay a significant number of samples to ensure that quality control & assurance standards were maintained.
At El Quevar, we are still awaiting the final report from Pincock (PAH) as they continue their work. We have also just received a significant number of assay results, which we have asked PAH to incorporate into their resource estimate.
We are making continued progress with a wide variety of operational improvements at Velardeña. We announced Sept-Nov 14, 2011 ore grade and silver recovery statistics in our November 14, 2011 press release, and we plan to publish updated operational figures later this week. We are in the final stages of completing our latest corporate presentation, which includes details on corporate strategy, operational improvements at Velardeña, Velardeña and El Quevar plans, production statistics since the ECU transaction, 2012 production estimates, and more. The presentation will be posted on the home page of our website; likely by Thursday midday."
If they got many new assays that they WANT to include into their 43-101 bad enough so as to delay its release, that means that those assay results are good, right?
WTF? 9.93? I meant 4.93. Maybe that was my subliminal message to the market?
ReplyDeleteREDF SIFY breaking out on Indian bottom
ReplyDeleteJust sell MITK off already. WTF are they waiting for?
ReplyDeleteWTF!!!!!!! AUMN is a freaking 727 taking off.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to my 30k shares...just kidding.
ReplyDeleteIPGP spikes higher on the notion that it is presenting at the Needham conference tomorrow. umm...MITK is presenting at the same conference and it too is spiking a whopping $0.06 today
ReplyDeleteJust got in....Way to go David!! Great to see it paying off for you. I know it has a long way to go for you, but your adds/trades near the lows have to be helping.
ReplyDeleteCome on you guys, stick your feet through the floor boards and paddle Flintstones style! It would be nice to close above 1290...
ReplyDeletePicked up some ANR at the close.
ReplyDeleteThe next crop of momo stocks will be breakouts from long bases like DANG. I really like it. 100% crappy, criminal management, but a ton of cash, and a chart worthy of a frame.
With that chart, it could easily be up 100% in a month.
Patience (see David).
Yin and Yang:
ReplyDeleteYin:
"3 yr auction has best b/c since at least 1993
By Peter Boockvar - January 10th, 2012, 1:43PM
An interest coupon of a pathetic .37% was no deterrent as the US Treasury sold 3 yr notes with the best bid to cover since at least 1993. The yield though was in line with the when issued and direct and indirect bidders took the least amount since April with dealers owning the rest. This follows the 6 month bill auction in Germany yesterday where creditors will PAY to lend. With this insatiable demand for punk yields and safety, it still says a lot about market fears with economic growth combined with the belief that central banks will continue to do everything they can to price fix lower the level of interest rates as a result."
Yang:
"This chart comes to us from Michael Gayed of Pension Partners, who points out that investors preferences for dividends versus the broader index is revealing of investor psychology:
“We all know that markets continuously go through ever-changing cycles of fear and greed, defense and offense right? Much like a pendulum, investor sentiment swings and goes through cycles as well. The above chart shows the price ratio relationship of the S&P 500 Dividend ETF (SDY) relative to the S&P 500 itself. A rising price ratio means that dividend stocks (SDY) are outperforming capital appreciation stocks (SPY). Notice outperformance means being either up more, or down less.
What do you guys notice here, particularly as it relates to the 0.43ish level over the past three years? Notice early 2009 (bull market following March low), late 2010 (start of QE2 equity rally), and where we are now. Is the pendulum finally swinging away from dividends and back to favoring capital appreciation? Does this suggest the bull market may indeed be real this time despite continued concerns over Europe?
Remember – price is truth. What you and I think does not matter. The only thing that matters is what the person we’re selling to thinks, After all, that’s what sets price.”
~~~
Michael A. Gayed, CFA is Chief Investment Strategist at Pension Partners, where he structures portfolios. Prior to this role, Michael served as a Portfolio Manager for a large international investment group, trading long/short investment ideas in an effort to capture excess returns. In 2007, he launched his own long/short hedge fund, using various trading strategies focused on taking advantage of stock market anomalies. Michael earned his B.S. from New York University, and is a CFA Charterholder."
See chart and story here: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/01/cap-gains-vs-dividends/
I'll do some more dang work tonight when I return. I need to find that guy's website again who had pages and pages of dang analysis.
ReplyDeleteOkay, as long as we're throwing out the basing charts...
ReplyDeleteJVA on 6 mo daily chart. Closed at 9.39, overhead at $15, 52 wk high of 30.98.
Volatile, you have to like roller coasters.
I think a reasonable target in a good market is a triple from here, but I would stick to a decent position and take partial profits at $15.
Congratulations David, you stuck to your plan and it's beautiful to see it work for you.
"$INSW Announces Special Cash Distribution of $5/Share"
ReplyDeleteWTF? It's trading for 8.00.
http://www.cmegroup.com/popup/mdq2.html?code=ZHG2&title=February_2012_Ethanol&type=p#link=weekly
ReplyDeleteAbove is for PEIX...I still think a pop is coming. A break above $1.20 would be good. If you can work trendlines then a break above $1.14 would be good.
Mark > That is related to a division they sold off if memory serves me correct. I made a good penny on that stock a few years ago and follow it from time to time.
AUMN was the top % gainer in the NYSE!!
ReplyDeletevery interesting article on RDN...and comments...looks like there is more to the story than the chart looking to turn up:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/307639-radian-why-i-m-selling?source=yahoo
new post
ReplyDeleteSVM - "Silvercorp Received RMB 269 Million Cash Dividend From Its Chinese Subsidiary
ReplyDeleteJanuary 10, 2012
VANCOUVER, British Columbia – January 10, 2012 – Silvercorp Metals Inc. (“Silvercorp” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that it has received RMB 269 million cash dividend payment (equivalent to USD $43 million) from its 77.5% owned Chinese subsidiary, Henan Found Mining Co. Ltd. (“Henan Found”), in Henan Province, China. The cash dividend has been deposited at a bank in Canada.
The cash dividend represents Henan Found’s 2010 calendar year profit distribution. According to its audited statutory financial statements Henan Found had a net profit of RMB 514.8 million in the 2010 calendar year. The board of directors of Henan Found declared 75% of net profit, ( RMB 386.1 million), as cash dividends to its two shareholders. RMB 299 million, representing 77.5% total dividends declared was paid to the Company. After deducting Chinese dividend withholding tax of RMB 29.9 million, the Company received a net cash dividend payment of RMB 269 million."