I read various report on where market psychology is and it seems to be all over the place, but regardless, stocks are cheap on most metrics and monetary conditions are very supportive, so barring some catastrophe that the central banks can't fix with liquidity, we are almost certainly higher later this year.
TOF, took a quick look at AMNF and it does look quite interesting and worth some more time.
Do you know why it trades on the Pinks though? I don't mind buying stocks on the pinks if they are a foreign company listed on another major exchange, but I really don't know why a U.S. company would list there. It's market cap is only $26 million, but there are many smaller stocks than this on major exchanges.
(a) Twist extended into 2013. (b) An additional x% cut in payroll taxes 'proposed' by Obama. (c) Excessive consumption of Corona in Mexico leads to Grecian Growth Formula.
Except for oil, copper, and bonds, the market looks great. Summation index is confirming what looks like a bottom. Stochastics suggest a short term pullback. I'm warming up to a lot of stocks right now and if we can clear the 50 DMA for a few days I will be quite bullish. Having said that I'm cautious because of the ongoing negativity in econ reports across the globe.
Still can't get myself to buy the coals but I'm watching them closely. The Sensex is flirting with the 200 DMA...if that can pull up above it then I really like REDF and MMYT (again).
I've noticed a lot of charts of stocks that have been decimated that are showing bull flags with continuation moves or thrusts up. FSLR today...I had a buy alert trigger when it crossed $14.1 that caused me to buy...MMYT has had two bull flags.
BB - I have no idea why AMNF is on the pinks? maybe the cost of being public is too much? the vol is actually decent for a pink sheet. They have paid dividends for like 10 years.
spain could rally but its in a depression and ewp doesnt suggest a bottom is in yet. did u see my chart of the dow in the depression? thats a classic bottom. nat gas chart is identical. just needs to break 2.9 to confirm its a new bull.
I think you can start picking at European stocks, but wouldn't jump in hard and fast. It's hard to know how far these types of things will go down, but there is good value now, you are almost certainly closer to the bottom than the top, and there are many good companies in Europe which will do well regardless.
I own VOD, LYG, UL, NM and IBDY. Oh and FLY which is an Irish airplane leasing company.
I'm not sure about the European financials still even though I own LYG - the banks are probably good, but could have more writeoffs and the U.S. insurers are cheap with less risk and better run.
Looks like Spain was down about 65% peak to trough. Greece was down 90%. If Madrid gets back above the March 09 lows of around 720 then the latest move could have been a fakeout and could definitely set up for a nice tradeable bottom. The Nikkei did the same back in the early 90's. Broke down below the lows from the crash and then went on to rally about 50 or 60% if I remember correctly. Throw in a 10% dividend (which will probably get cut a bit but still) and you could see a 1 year return of 50 to 60%, assuming you wait to buy until after 720 is cleared.
TOF- I'm here, but this kitchen remodel is kicking my ass. I'll get back in the game soon...or you going to have to pay for all this crap. Velt- Yes. NQ- Must be wrong on this one. So I'd have to say no for now. JIVE- Yes...but that should have been 5 bucks ago. I even posted the bottom by maybe .10 cents...and did nothing.
Marketwatch sure is negative this morning. 4 of the top 5 stories are:
1. So long suckers, i'm leaving Wall Street - it's worse than the tobacco industry 2. 20 rules that can save you from the doomsday cycle 4. Its closer than you think - the fiscal cliff 5. What eclispsing the 50-day average means - not much, bulls are in danger of getting carried away
SQNM - Upgrade: "09:08 SQNM Sequenom: Initiation details (3.70) As mentioned earlier Maxim Group initiated SQNM with a Buy and price target of $6 saying they expect an acceleration of women opting for prenatal diagnostic screening. Births at a high risk of Down syndrome now represent ~17.9% of the total 2011 births of 4.0 mln, greater than the ~17.4% of 2007 births of 4.3 mln. They expect this trend to worsen due to a potential influx of women older than 35 years old having babies after postponing pregnancies due mostly to the weak economic environment. Given the high detection rate of SQNM's MaterniT21 PLUS and other recently introduced screens, they expect an increasing rate of prenatal screening."
sold the faz at 24.12 this morning. im officially done predicting the markets direction its a fools game. ill just glance from time to time at the things the objective trader guy looks at to see if things are silly bullish or bearish. instead i need to keep focusing on individual stocks. thats where ive always done well. if i ignored the market i would have made another $200+k holding nls and mitk which goes to show there are plenty of opportunities .
anyway i added another 4k fslr at around 14.9 and bought 8k shs of redf at 3.9...about 45 or 50% long now.
Fellas - FSLR is a major buy right now. Having seen what a beaten down stock can do like MITK and seeing how negative people still are on FSLR (despite them being hugely profitable still) I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see this double from here. i think Jesse's TAN call might be in play.
CP - I sold at $2.4 the day before it ran up hard. I'm officially giving it a funeral in my mind so I don't cloud my judgment on other opportunities. No more mourning for me!
Yeah I noticed that with SIFY right after I looked at REDF. I just prefer the business model (lower cost structure, much more scalable, and easier to understand) of REDF more but SIFY could definitely benefit from a rollout in broadband usage.
You'd think we should be ready for a pullback or at least a pause here, but with the huge amount of money in hedge funds and HFT, the moves seem to go longer and straighter than you'd think.
If you go back and look at the SPY chart since the 2009 bottom, it's been better just to hold on than to try and pick the pullbacks (in my opinion).
Picking the pullback - I have to agree, I never can pick the exact top or bottom and the surf can carry your board much further than you might expect when you can't perceive the size of the swell.
Very interesting article...I've tried this type of pattern a few times over the years with little success. REDF in fall 2010 comes to mind as an example but it pulled back too hard to be classified as this.
I'm gonna stick with my 55% cash for now but I'm still holding my FSLR and smaller position in REDF. I think we will get a pullback here very soon. In the meantime I'm gonna spend a lot of time researching new setups. I'm seeing several.
Anyone find it odd that FDX reported a soft annual guidance and it went up big today? Is it just a relief rally? I noticed that UPS still hasn't moved above it's pre earnings miss level from late April.
Lot of the TV-technicians coming on now, after we are up 6% from the lows, saying it is a great buying time. Guess they'll be right if we go up another 10%, but seems like an awfully hard way to make money.
Yep that's the difficult part of this game as you know, which is why you're buy and hold i'm sure. I'm still in roughly half cash and am hoping for a pullback so I'm in their shoes in a way.
We're going higher, bro. No ----.
ReplyDelete1450, anyone?
DeleteWhere's Jesse when you need him?
DeleteMark- Locked 3.75%.
ReplyDelete2nd, I think 1450 this year is realistic.
ReplyDeleteI read various report on where market psychology is and it seems to be all over the place, but regardless, stocks are cheap on most metrics and monetary conditions are very supportive, so barring some catastrophe that the central banks can't fix with liquidity, we are almost certainly higher later this year.
I sense 'bear fatigue' right now.
DeleteTOF, took a quick look at AMNF and it does look quite interesting and worth some more time.
ReplyDeleteDo you know why it trades on the Pinks though? I don't mind buying stocks on the pinks if they are a foreign company listed on another major exchange, but I really don't know why a U.S. company would list there. It's market cap is only $26 million, but there are many smaller stocks than this on major exchanges.
Other possible catalysts for an upside move:
ReplyDelete(a) Twist extended into 2013.
(b) An additional x% cut in payroll taxes 'proposed' by Obama.
(c) Excessive consumption of Corona in Mexico leads to Grecian Growth Formula.
(d) Oops. Did I say 1450? I meant 1540.
DeleteI can't recall- does that mean I need to eat my shoe?
DeleteRed open. That would be ideal. Work off remaining positive sentiment prior to launch.
ReplyDeleteNorthbound is done playing games, bro. All aboard. It may be a boring trip, but few valleys remain.
DeleteWhy the confidence? We're buoyed by a ton of puts.
DeleteExcept for oil, copper, and bonds, the market looks great. Summation index is confirming what looks like a bottom. Stochastics suggest a short term pullback. I'm warming up to a lot of stocks right now and if we can clear the 50 DMA for a few days I will be quite bullish. Having said that I'm cautious because of the ongoing negativity in econ reports across the globe.
ReplyDeleteStill can't get myself to buy the coals but I'm watching them closely. The Sensex is flirting with the 200 DMA...if that can pull up above it then I really like REDF and MMYT (again).
I've noticed a lot of charts of stocks that have been decimated that are showing bull flags with continuation moves or thrusts up. FSLR today...I had a buy alert trigger when it crossed $14.1 that caused me to buy...MMYT has had two bull flags.
Mark - What are your thoughts on VELT and NQ?
BB - I have no idea why AMNF is on the pinks? maybe the cost of being public is too much? the vol is actually decent for a pink sheet. They have paid dividends for like 10 years.
ReplyDeletetof- I'm toying with the idea that the worst that can happen is already priced into Europe. VGK is down -20% over the past 52 weeks.
ReplyDeleteAnd that would be European blue-chips.
DeleteOver 5 years? Down -50%.
Deletespain could rally but its in a depression and ewp doesnt suggest a bottom is in yet. did u see my chart of the dow in the depression? thats a classic bottom. nat gas chart is identical. just needs to break 2.9 to confirm its a new bull.
Deletehow far down is greece peak to trough?
I think you can start picking at European stocks, but wouldn't jump in hard and fast. It's hard to know how far these types of things will go down, but there is good value now, you are almost certainly closer to the bottom than the top, and there are many good companies in Europe which will do well regardless.
DeleteI own VOD, LYG, UL, NM and IBDY. Oh and FLY which is an Irish airplane leasing company.
I'm not sure about the European financials still even though I own LYG - the banks are probably good, but could have more writeoffs and the U.S. insurers are cheap with less risk and better run.
Looks like Spain was down about 65% peak to trough. Greece was down 90%. If Madrid gets back above the March 09 lows of around 720 then the latest move could have been a fakeout and could definitely set up for a nice tradeable bottom. The Nikkei did the same back in the early 90's. Broke down below the lows from the crash and then went on to rally about 50 or 60% if I remember correctly. Throw in a 10% dividend (which will probably get cut a bit but still) and you could see a 1 year return of 50 to 60%, assuming you wait to buy until after 720 is cleared.
DeleteSeriously though, have any of you guys watched R.A. Dickey's stuff lately? Dude hasn't allowed an earned run in 42 innings?
ReplyDeleteTOF- I'm here, but this kitchen remodel is kicking my ass. I'll get back in the game soon...or you going to have to pay for all this crap.
ReplyDeleteVelt- Yes.
NQ- Must be wrong on this one. So I'd have to say no for now.
JIVE- Yes...but that should have been 5 bucks ago. I even posted the bottom by maybe .10 cents...and did nothing.
good luck on the remodel...what's the deal with VELT again? man i keep looking at REDF.
DeleteI can't believe I'm thinking this but RENN?
ReplyDeleteMarketwatch sure is negative this morning. 4 of the top 5 stories are:
ReplyDelete1. So long suckers, i'm leaving Wall Street - it's worse than the tobacco industry
2. 20 rules that can save you from the doomsday cycle
4. Its closer than you think - the fiscal cliff
5. What eclispsing the 50-day average means - not much, bulls are in danger of getting carried away
BAS got 2 downgrades to neutal yesterdays but PT's are 24ish.
ReplyDeleteBAS - What's up with downgrade, outlook for oil no good due to switchover to alternative energy?
ReplyDeleteI didn't read it but assume is has to be due to reduced fracking based on gas supply.
DeleteSQNM - Upgrade: "09:08
ReplyDeleteSQNM
Sequenom: Initiation details (3.70)
As mentioned earlier Maxim Group initiated SQNM with a Buy and price target of $6 saying they expect an acceleration of women opting for prenatal diagnostic screening. Births at a high risk of Down syndrome now represent ~17.9% of the total 2011 births of 4.0 mln, greater than the ~17.4% of 2007 births of 4.3 mln. They expect this trend to worsen due to a potential influx of women older than 35 years old having babies after postponing pregnancies due mostly to the weak economic environment. Given the high detection rate of SQNM's MaterniT21 PLUS and other recently introduced screens, they expect an increasing rate of prenatal screening."
http://www.briefing.com/InPlayEq/InPlay/InPlayFlake.htm?saveStatePageId=-8001&contentLocation=ContentLeft#ixzz1yFD5IxA5
sold the faz at 24.12 this morning. im officially done predicting the markets direction its a fools game. ill just glance from time to time at the things the objective trader guy looks at to see if things are silly bullish or bearish. instead i need to keep focusing on individual stocks. thats where ive always done well. if i ignored the market i would have made another $200+k holding nls and mitk which goes to show there are plenty of opportunities .
ReplyDeleteanyway i added another 4k fslr at around 14.9 and bought 8k shs of redf at 3.9...about 45 or 50% long now.
WDC - I know it won't happen, but I'd definitely find my nutsack if the December gap up was closed.
ReplyDeleteMore than likely though, the gaps down are filled first...
"potential influx of women older than 35 years old having babies"
ReplyDeleteHere's your chance guys, open the floodgates and let 'er rip!!!
Seeing if I can sell my MUX Jan. 2.50 calls at 1.20.
ReplyDeleteVELT/JIVE/NQ...too funny.
ReplyDeleteI don't get it?
DeleteFellas - FSLR is a major buy right now. Having seen what a beaten down stock can do like MITK and seeing how negative people still are on FSLR (despite them being hugely profitable still) I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see this double from here. i think Jesse's TAN call might be in play.
ReplyDeleteMITK - What's it gonna take for you guys to jump on this thing?
ReplyDeleteWhat part of it justifies the lack of faith?
For me it's simply the terrible Q and zero insider buying.
DeleteCP - I sold at $2.4 the day before it ran up hard. I'm officially giving it a funeral in my mind so I don't cloud my judgment on other opportunities. No more mourning for me!
DeletePBR - Back within arm's reach of $20, I'll be watching...
ReplyDeletehttp://chart.ly/ds8kede
ReplyDeleteI agree with this guy.
also: http://gregor.us/solar/world-solar-power-goes-parabolic/
GE - $20 milestone....
ReplyDeleteCP - Check out the OBV on REDF:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=REDF&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p97649056645
The weekly chart for DMND looks almost identical to MITK:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DMND&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p11830294019
Offed the VGK, EEM, XLE, and WDC.
ReplyDeletenice man. makes me wonder if i should do the same :)
DeleteREDF - Yes, I think the OBV looks healthy, seems to be consistent level of interest as if accumulation is the game.
ReplyDeleteOf course I'm by far a master of the OBV indicator, but it looks positive to me.
SIFY - This one's OBV looks every bit as good, if not better?
Any reason to prefer REDF over SIFY? SIFY has considerably more employees, does size help or is SIFY a scam?
Yeah I noticed that with SIFY right after I looked at REDF. I just prefer the business model (lower cost structure, much more scalable, and easier to understand) of REDF more but SIFY could definitely benefit from a rollout in broadband usage.
DeleteYou'd think we should be ready for a pullback or at least a pause here, but with the huge amount of money in hedge funds and HFT, the moves seem to go longer and straighter than you'd think.
ReplyDeleteIf you go back and look at the SPY chart since the 2009 bottom, it's been better just to hold on than to try and pick the pullbacks (in my opinion).
Anthony Scaramucci @Scaramucci
ReplyDeleteJamie Dimon holding his own. Rougher than Senate "the House is like a truck stop on the interstate, never know what you are going to get.
I bet Dimon knows exactly what to expect, he rides the same rails.
DeletePicking the pullback - I have to agree, I never can pick the exact top or bottom and the surf can carry your board much further than you might expect when you can't perceive the size of the swell.
ReplyDeleteVery interesting article...I've tried this type of pattern a few times over the years with little success. REDF in fall 2010 comes to mind as an example but it pulled back too hard to be classified as this.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/high-tight-flag-gives-rare-215700259.html
Took some FSLR off here. Over 7.7 % in a day can't last.
ReplyDeleteWell....it could but it's bound to pull back some.
http://www.objectivetrader.com/2012/06/short-term-target-reached-.html
ReplyDeleteClosing OAKMX at the close (top holdings=cof jpm cmcsk aapl intc tel wfc omc ebay). Pigs get slaughtered, bro.
ReplyDeletegreat one day timing last two trades
DeleteThanks, t3d.
DeleteNice trade. What happened to 1,540? Just kidding...we all know how that works.
DeleteTIE is a reasonable buy off daily per chart. Long
ReplyDeleteF*CK!
ReplyDeletehttp://slopeofhope.com/2012/06/long-first-solar-and-its-target.html
Cool Jazz!
ReplyDeleteREDF - Whomever's accumulating almost lost control and had to bite the bullet extra hard today.
ReplyDeleteREDF is a total dog...which is why I like it I guess.
DeleteFYI - REDF's latest down trend has lasted 41 trading days and dropped the stock 45%. Envision a beach ball being held underwater.
DeleteI'm gonna stick with my 55% cash for now but I'm still holding my FSLR and smaller position in REDF. I think we will get a pullback here very soon. In the meantime I'm gonna spend a lot of time researching new setups. I'm seeing several.
ReplyDeleteAnyone find it odd that FDX reported a soft annual guidance and it went up big today? Is it just a relief rally? I noticed that UPS still hasn't moved above it's pre earnings miss level from late April.
ReplyDeleteI think they beat on current earnings and the guidance is being seen as a lowball to ensure a beat later.
DeleteLot of the TV-technicians coming on now, after we are up 6% from the lows, saying it is a great buying time. Guess they'll be right if we go up another 10%, but seems like an awfully hard way to make money.
ReplyDeleteYep that's the difficult part of this game as you know, which is why you're buy and hold i'm sure. I'm still in roughly half cash and am hoping for a pullback so I'm in their shoes in a way.
DeleteLots of consumer related stocks are still hurting and in down trends...check out TIF, COH, PIR, NKE.
Delete