Wednesday, June 20, 2012
06/20/12 Bulls 13, Bears 14
Bears first on the board with 7. Bulls respond with 7, then take the lead with a field goal. Bears drive the ball 99 yards from their own 1 for a second TD. Bulls manage another 3 point kick in the final minutes.
At this point, we could go either way tomorrow. With the Fed basically admitting things aren't looking good, my bet would be a continued slide to support levels.
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Sounds like Europe may, and that's a big may, be getting close to doing something. That could be a catalyst for a substantial move higher.
ReplyDeleteAlso, even though we are due for a pullback short term, the intermediate stats are still quite oversold, so looking out a month or two, we should be higher. Of course, this will be trumped by either unexpected good or bad news. Plus, we are moving into the time of year the Presidential Election cycle up-trend begins.
I am staying fully long. My position still is fully long coming into the year, sold some high stocks early in the year to raise cash, rode the correction down without selling, bought a few things near the low and am now riding this up to see where it goes. I always review stocks as things move along and make adjustments based on new info as well. I still expect stocks to be substantially higher by year end.
What the market may attempt to 'discount,' IMHO, would be an August decision re QE3. In other words, a decline to support followed almost immediately by a move to new highs. Should that not play out, then a correction into July would almost certainly force the Fed's hand at its August meeting.
DeleteEven better, a surprise move by the Fed prior to its August meeting. This would catch investors off-guard, and disallow easy boarding.
Deletetheres a reason the vix plunge again today. market is sniffing something out...whether its a big compromise on the fiscal issues, a grand plan in europe, or throwing away obamacare it seems like the market is gonna start its slow steady grind higher yet again
ReplyDeleteThere appears to be something going on with Germany softening its position, one of the Euro-funds being used to support the banks and some sort of a wall between the Euro-banks and the Euro countries. May be nothing, but is the sort of thing that could help build towards a longer term solution.
ReplyDeleteTPX, anyone?
ReplyDeleteWhat exactly would one be risking buying TPX here? It's just a mattress company that tripped up in one quarter.
Delete2nd - I was looking at that one last night. It's an interesting one. I typically like to give it a couple of weeks to let the dust settle because most of the times it will at least test the intraday low on the plunge day or go lower (e.g., MITK) and then it's a good tradeable bottom. It's not fool proof but that's generally what I've noticed. Valuation looked decent if my memory serves me right.
DeleteIf you guys want a long term winner, I think BNNY is the one. It's a hyped IPO that is overpriced so it comes with risk but the products are really popular amongst the whole / natural foods crowd. My wife buys the organic bean and cheese burritos from time to time because Dr. Oz endorsed them. They're actually really good.
ReplyDeleteha. i just realized that the burritos are from a company called Amys not Annies. Never mind
DeleteI was watching DR. OZ one day and he said to drink whole milk because they add sugar to non-fat. Bullchit.
ReplyDeleteAmy's is a local Co. done good...
ReplyDeleteI totally agree with this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=It5MPNKd4pI&feature=player_embedded
ReplyDeleteOh, and if you don't understand, just stick with it.
ReplyDeleteStopped out of my remaining DIS today. 4.7% return on total invested on 5/22/12. A pretty slow trade by TT standards but I was pretty happy putting a plan together that worked. Still down in my Landry portfolio but we'll keep pluggin away. So far the count is 1 win and 2 losses for a total port loss .19%. I suppose I should have spent all that time just watching turner classic movies.
ReplyDeleteLooks like Landry's 10 20 30 MA would have worked well shorting APA since the downtrend crossovers arond 3/27/12. I can see 4 potential trades in there where it looks like 2 trades would have been quite profitable and two trades might have gotten stopped out. Overall a winner over the term. I'm not sure how you deal with a couple of stopped out trades. I think the turtles had some sort of rule to pass on the next trigger if the previous trade was stopped out for a loss.
ReplyDeleteIt's one trade. Go short on the trigger 4/3 and stick with it. You would still be short, holding half profit and holding open profits on half a position unless you re-loaded on 5/3.
DeleteMy biggest problem is sticking with my trades and trends. Once I'm right I need to stick with it.
Delete"what the eff man. jrcc up 70% since last week. if i sell another stock that goes up 50% plus a week after i sell im gonna lose it"
ReplyDeleteTOF, the only reason JRCC surged at the close is that I sold some shares earlier in the day. Now the move looks truly parabolic, and I think it is time to sell the rest of it. So I just moved up my sell stop limit to $3.40/$3.25.
Make no mistake, folks: the Fed will not be able to sell at break-even the long-term Treasuries it has been buying recently at the unsustainably low interest rates and will be buying for the rest of the year. This will be soon recognized by the market as a pure money creation, which is EXACTLY what happened in Germany in 1920's. They had a banking crisis, 0 inflation, very slow economy and constant QE, which kept lowering interest rates without any effect on the economy. At some point traders recognized that the central bank will lose money on its bond purchases, thus creating pure money for the economy.
ReplyDeleteGold will zoom soon.
Up early today...any of you fellas follow NFG?
ReplyDeleteWhat the hell are you doing up so early?
Deletei was up until like 2 the night before so i went to bed at 8 last night.
Deletei just saw ABHD...i was close to buying that on the back of the WM news a couple of weeks ago. i still like that one.
Short M
ReplyDeleteI'm long the Deron trade today.
ReplyDeleteLooks like I top ticked my MUX calls. I kinda wonder if the market might be thinking the fed is done.
ReplyDeletei still think GLL is a buy
Deleteour power is out so i'm at the local starbucks. there are a couple of guys next to me that are talking about housing and one of the guys just said that he's seeing a good deal of pickup in the area and it's almost becoming a sellers market. but then he said that he still doesn't trust real estate and doesn't want to be buying anything. i doubt that but it's interesting to hear that.
ReplyDeleteoh another interesting conversation - i was talking to my old boss who is now a partner at KPMG. he said they started getting notices from the SEC to provide information on all chinese based publicly traded companies. he said if they don't provide the required information by the stated date they will de-list the company. this is a great sign but it's something to be cautious of if you're in a china stock.
man MITK looks like it's gonna close that gap up in the high 5's.
Added a little more FSLR at $14.85
ReplyDeleteFSLR looks to me like it's setting up yet another bull flag. the weekly charts are just turning up - macd crossover and stochastics buy signals are in place. if stochastics move above 20 it's a confirmed buy signal. ignore the noise. the stock is now a buy.
Deleteso i'm at the local starbucks
ReplyDeleteNerd.
with my macbook. i feel like part of the in crowd now.
DeleteBetter coffee and furniture then MacDonalds where Mark hangs.
DeleteIf there were no power, where should he be?
DeleteMaybe the penny-pinching power company ran out of pretty coal...
300 calorie eye opener baby!
DeleteOr a zero calorie drip.
Deleteyeah right mark is a keurig drinker. what a poser.
DeleteI just bought a 2.5 KG roaster to start a small roasting biz. Friends don't let friends drink stale Keurig swill. when I'm up and running I'll send you guys the BEST fresh coffee.
DeleteI'm drinking a sweet Burundi (East Africa) this AM. My usual drip, black.
It makes the whole kitchen/dining room/living room smell fricking awesome.
Covered M at 35.86 but looks like it might go down more.
ReplyDeleteMade some good $$$ on M but my Deron trade will only buy about 5 lattes for TOF so far. Maybe I should super size it (in Mark's language) or get a quad Venti in TOF land.
Deletewell played sir!
DeleteKPMG - They did the audit on SVM, and the china-bashers still maintain that SVM is a fraud while bragging about making millions with their short attack.
ReplyDeletePAL - I think this could be a good initial entry, making room for a possible $2 in the cross-hairs.
ReplyDeleteSQNM - Climbing, but I have no F'in idea why if it's not lingering interest from the MAXIM upgrade a couple days ago.
ReplyDeletelooks like yet another day of them trying to take the market down without success. get long FSLR fellas...
ReplyDeletehey CP - DECK isn't yet a buy but i'm watching it closely. i'm waiting for a crossover on MACD and Stochastics. the ATR is dwindling which means it's most likely setting up for a big move soon.
ReplyDeleteNods, looks like the chart needs to mature a bit before we get a clear picture. Good thing we didn't jump on at $50 ;)
DeleteIBB - Is this ETF gonna break out now, or not?
ReplyDeletealright i take my comment back > they are able to break this sucker lower.
ReplyDeleteAlways a run up going into Bernanke's dog and pony show only to sell off afterward as Ben neglects to use the magic phrase.
ReplyDeleteBrazil GDP forecast 1.5%....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2012/06/20/brazils-mantega-credit-suisses-gdp-forecast-a-joke/?partner=yahootix
STS looks solid. I think this thing runs hard if they can go through another solid earnings report. Again, they did $0.17 EPS last quarter after $0.10 for the prior two quarters. They went through a complete turnaround. Apparently Nissan had a really good May in their light truck sales and STS makes the truck bodies. This quarter is their best quarter normally and on the call last quarter they said that roughly $1.5 Million of expenses last quarter were one time expenses. If you back those out they would have had about $0.27 EPS. Think about that for a second. THat's a run rate of $1.08 for a stock trading at $3.90. Let's say they did $.27 and this quarter they do the same because it's the strongest quarter. That would be $0.74 EPS for the past 4 quarters. Using a 10 p/e that would be a price of double the current price.
DeleteWDC - Still got my bid in for $27.50
ReplyDeleteSWC - It's confirmed, shoulda' exited on the EOD bounce.
This enthusiastic commodities selling could last a while, I'm prepared for $WTIC to $65
PM's - I swear, I think one could just trade the Bernanke cycle.
ReplyDeletepicked up a few hundred more shares of FSLR at $14.63.
ReplyDeleteBought another 1k shs FSLR at $14.67
DeleteAdded another 1k at $14.73
DeletePBR - Only a matter of time before $20 support fails, assuming this broad selling celebration doesn't run out of rope.
ReplyDeleteMUX - Only off 10% now, can you say Deja-Vu?
ReplyDeleteMiners - Why so much weaker than the underlying? I tend to agree with this article, b/c costs have risen:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/673421-gold-mining-stocks-undervalued-for-good-reason?source=yahoo
It's probably nothing but I did notice a spike down in REDF just now on volume a decent amount greater than the shares on the bid and they absorbed it and actually traded it up after that. I like looking for signs of this as a capitulation bottom. We saw that in JRCC if you remember about 2 weeks ago (the day David and I bought in actually). It scared me off and I sold but that is usually when you should be loading up because it signals panic selling. I saw that in WFR a few weeks ago as well.
ReplyDeletethat actually might be a good strategy if we are trying to find bottoms...keep a list of several stocks that are in long down trends and watch their daily charts to see a big drop on high volume followed by a bounce higher. come to think of it i distinctly remember seeing this in SQNM right before it bottomed around $3.5 and ran all the way up to like $5.8 or so.
Deletewatch their intraday charts, that is.
DeleteHDSN - $3.60 is probably the best opportunity to pick this one up unless the market tanks.
ReplyDeleteI have a bid at $2.25 at the gap up, in case that happens.
Everything on the FSLR chart looks good man. You have:
ReplyDelete*Monster 18 month downtrend
*Big rally in the middle of that downtrend to suck people in
*Final flush down that is a parabolic move lower on heavy volume
*Bullish RSI divergence
*Bullish MACD crossover
*Excessive pessimism and consensus that the company is finished
*Huge 40%+ short interest
*Biggest volume bar on weekly chart right at the bottom that is a black bullish volume bar
*Bullish Stochastic crossover
Then look at even the action today. The market tanked and yet the stock is diverging from the market.
Think of it in terms of what the inverse of this chart would look like: it would be a massive parabolic top right?
"Hard government data on the manufacturing sector have been mostly negative for the last several months which stands in contrast to healthy strength in many anecdotal reports specifically the national indexes from the ISM and the new entry from Markit Economics. The flash reading for June from Markit Economics, safely above 50 at 52.9, signals a continuation of meaningful monthly growth in overall activity. The pace of activity may be a bit slower compared to the year-to-date average of 54.5, but individual readings on output and on new orders show very little monthly change while employment growth, though slowing slightly, is still a big positive. One area of concern is the export side with new export orders falling nearly 3 points to 48.9, a sub-50 reading that indicates monthly contraction and offers new evidence that trouble in Europe and slowing in China are beginning to be felt over here."
ReplyDeleteYeah, my guess is commodities demand is still down considerably from 2007 peak and the spike, or bounce back up higher that lasted a year was a headfake that bankers orchestrated and sold into.
DeleteI guess this includes oil and coal producers as well.
Feels like we're skidding to a halt now, the orchestrated commodities rally off the 2009 bottom must've starved the economy of badly needed cheap commodities, disrupting economic momentum.
http://www.objectivetrader.com/2012/06/end-of-day-20-june-2012.html
ReplyDeleteLooks like 1,326 is the target. That might happen today.
TIE, breaks the lows line of 10.83. Out at 10.71 for -5.22%. Was going to try and see if the mkt would lift this hour, but not feelin it.
ReplyDeleteMy personal first priority is defending capital.
PXP off 9%. Wow.
ReplyDelete10%
DeleteWhat I don't get is why longs are so quick to sell, or if this phenomenon is just shorts raiding?
ReplyDeleteWhichever it is, it's definitely correlated to Bernanke's appearance.
PM mining: For fun and no profit.
ReplyDeleteFunny!!!!
DeleteTo my untrained eye, it appears we've broken through support? I define support as SPX 1340.
ReplyDeleteAdded another 1k shs FSLR at $14.56. Now 100% long unfortunately :(
ReplyDeletePulling a David.
DeleteMy cost avg is $14.7
DeleteCP,
ReplyDeletethey say the bigggest pullbacks occur in bull markets (and visa versa). Today's action is probably healthy in bringing some fear back into the market after a 6% move in less than 3 weeks.
I think you've got some traders today who are afraid of another major downturn after the pain of the last 2 months, so are selling into this weakness (which is almost always a mistake).
The 6% WAS the pullback (retrace) of the downtrend. This is not a bull market.
DeleteEveryday Landry has been saying this was a retrace of the down trend and today we have confirmation that is what it is. I do have some small long positions so I'm all for a bounce here, but I'm not going to fight the tape too much.
Banks - Not doing so well today either, wonder if the mood created is positive for their business model and portfolio holdings?
ReplyDeleteI just puke MDW, dumbest trade/discipline in three years, if it gets to 1.15ish I'll revaluate my sanity.
ReplyDeleteThat sucks man. I know how that feels on both sides (selling at bottom, selling too early).
DeleteYeah, need a furniture maker? I guess it beats working on a jackhammer all day.
DeleteCheers
HDSN - Although uber-thin, holding support better than PBR, which easily folded.
ReplyDeletePeople just won't go without their A/C and who besides me has the money these days to plunk down on a brand-new system?
GE - Cratered under $20 straight away, beating PBR to the punch by an Einstein mile(hours).
ReplyDeleteSold the Deron/UUP trade. This was a pretty nasty day I expect we get a bit of a bounce and then a resumption down. I did short M a couple more times but I should have stuck with my position.
ReplyDeleteSomething is up with the solars today. TSL, LDK, JKS all positive. FSLR and WFR are down but haven't followed the market at all since they bottomed earlier in the morning.
ReplyDeleteWow, another 2% day
ReplyDelete2nd - I believe the support level is 1,326 not 1,340 because that is where it peaked in January and a couple of times two weeks ago. Also I think it's a fib line of retracement. And I think the next level is 1,315 which is 1/2 of the gains from the June bottom to the June top. Did you get long at the close? It sure felt panicky today.
ReplyDeleteLittle bit, didn't it?
DeleteIf you recall last week we kept bumping up against 1,326 on June 7, 11, 13, and 14. And when the global liquidity rumors came out we spiked up above that and cleared it. So perhaps this is just a pullback to clear the froth in the market before we resume higher. I have no idea and honestly don't really care so long as we stay green for the year and above the 200 DMA. I think it's pretty impressive that we're still positive on the year and quite a bit so: up about 5.5% on the S&P after todays plunge.
Delete$NDX - Probably another 50 pts of downside before bulls begin stepping up to the plate?
ReplyDeleteChart kinda looks like a month-long bear flag just completed, don't it?
I kinda think this is only a one day pullback. It's pretty impressive to me that FDX, UPS, and IYT have held in so well. I understand they benefit from the drop in oil but shit wouldn't they be getting hit a bit harder if the economy was going to shit?
DeleteOne thing to like about $NDX is the three MACD peaks on the weekly are all progressively higher than the previous, this isn't the case with the $SPX. MACD is turning up on weekly $NDX, as well.
DeleteSo which ones out of the 100 are carrying the weight?
I just heard about today's bearish news flow, and after hours bank downgrades, wow, just not good. I think maybe it's still too early to buy.
Looks like there is a settlement between FSLR and Alpine County which should be good for the stock I would think. This was a big project that was being held back by a dispute over a connector on the solar panel.
ReplyDelete“They are concerned about the connector on the solar panel,” First Solar Public Relations Director Alan Bernheimer told GTM last week. “They are concerned that it is not UL [Underwriters Laboratory] certified for a 1,000 volt system.” But, he added, “the module as well as the connector is certified for 1,000 volts under an IEC certification recognized by the NESC.”
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/settlement-of-dispute-between-first-solar-and-la-county/
PM Mining: For fun and no profit
ReplyDeleteFrom BACML June 15th monthly PM report:
"Costs rose sharply higher yoy in Q1’12
Based on Q1’12 operating results, it would appear that cash (net of credits) and
total production costs (which includes depreciation) for the global gold sector will
be once again higher yoy in 2012. Chart 1 sets out the production weighted cash
and total production costs for the global gold sector for the 2005-2011 period and
Q1’11 and Q1’12 periods. The data for Q1’11/Q1’12 was based on 51% of global
gold output (as tabulated by BofAML). Despite several new mines starting up,
total global gold output tracked declined by 1% yoy to 10.63 million ozs in Q1’12.
Looking at Q1’12, we calculated production weighted average cash and total
production costs of $683 and $886/oz. These represented yoy increases of 22%
and 20% respectively over the Q1’11 production weighted averages of $559/oz
and $737/oz for cash and total production costs. These reflect increased direct
mining costs, including higher labor, energy, maintenance and consumable costs,
plus higher royalties and declining ore grades. Depreciation rose 14% from $178
to $203/oz in Q1’12 due to growth in asset values, a function of rising capex. The
cash margin expanded by 24% from $651 in Q1’11 to $805/oz in Q1’12.
A re-occurring question from investors is price sensitivity of world gold production.
Looking at Chart 5 on page 3, 10% of global gold output in our survey had a total
production cost in excess of $1,100/oz in Q1’12 (which excludes G&A, exploration
and cash taxes which would add another $200-$300/oz to this total). The high
cost bases of the marginal producers likely would provide a price floor for bullion
(say above the $1,200-$1,300/oz price level).
Research
Table 2: BofA Merrill Lynch Forecasts
Precious Metal 2012E 2013E 2014E
Gold (US$/oz) 1,750 1,710 1,570
Silver (US$/oz) 34.50 36.10 31.40
Platinum (US$/oz) 1,668 1,660 1,630
Palladium (US$/oz) 685 710 645
Copper (US$/lb) 3.75 3.37 3.24
Zinc (US$/lb) 0.97 1.07 1.14
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research"