You know the rest. Trading (at least from my point of view) was listless and inspired not a single take meriting a comment. Hoping for a splash of drama this weekend. Europe, China, Japan, or here at home.
As Jimmy says, it's five o'clock somewhere! M down another $1, FSLR up more than a buck, PVA reasserting the upward trend out of a knockout, and all but one of the Landry shorts down another 2.5%.....I guess inspiration and listlessness is in the eye of the beholder. My portfolio was inspired today and anything but listless. It would have been downright stupendous if I hadn't tried to micromanage M yesterday and just stuck with it. An ice cold IPA makes up for most of it.
That's right, beer doesn't know what time it is! Glad to hear the service picks were kicking --- while I was looking for inspiration in all the wrong places.
When it doubt sit it out man. We often overtrade. Like you said 2nd, take the market on your terms. And best of all "wait for a fat pitch". My fat pitch is FSLR. This bad boy keeps on bull flagging higher. Gaps at the open leave traders on the sideline. Fades throughout out the trade to keep shorts in the game and even adding. Rinse, wash, repeat. FSLR is going to $44 this year bro.
From your lips to God's ear TOF. If it goes to $44 we should all have a trader's vacation in Hawaii. I do think at least a 50% retrace of the high is possible.
If it goes to 50% of the $300 down to $11 retracement and we're able to hold on then that would be insane. This industry is extremely cyclical. Lots of people were burned by the whole sector and it will take time for them to come back. But the demand for solar is enormous so it's feasible that FSLR could get back to the old cycle highs of $7 EPS. If investors pay 15 times those earnings then $100 isn't out of the realm of possibility. One step at a time though.
how does that compare to the puts? and how does it compare to historical volatility? I believe the put / call ratios are still very elevated for all stocks so i'm assuming IV is really high for the puts
interesting exercise, I guess implied vol isn't so hi after all. I'm just not used to looking at options with such a high implied vol. CF is the only stock I watch with higher implieds and I don't recall it ever being as hi as FSLR's. CF normally runs in the mid 30's%.
market direction videos Submitted by davefairtex (4323 comments) on Sat, 06/23/2012 - 05:01 #110470 I'm going to be a shill for a moment here.
I signed up to receive Deron's Morpheus Trading Group daily market direction videos. They are definitely worth watching. The combination of video, charts, and audio, the short clear and concise format, and the simplicity of the charts themselves make for a good thumbnail sketch of current market direction and "things to watch for".
I especially like what happened a few days ago. The SPX broke through its 50 ma and they said the market was a buy. Then when it tore through the 50 downhill on thursday, on Friday they just reversed their call, and started giving short setups. No apology, no fuss, just - its another day, and now we're looking to go short. And the attitude is like an Anti-Kramer, where things are friendly, but nobody's pulse ever goes above resting.
Currently they are targeting the 200 MA on the downside for SPX; one of their short candidates is GOOG which they would short on a bounce. They got the bounce Friday, and I'm guessing stop placement either at the top of Thursday's candle, or the 20 MA.
The daily direction, and a couple of possible setups for the day are shown in the video. Best part is, its free. They don't tell you price levels and stop placement and I think they have other setups they aren't going into - that you have to pay for - but there is good value in what they do show.
It's a new feature of the Cara blog. Deron provides a daily set-up, which he cuts and pastes from the Morpheus site. Paid membership provides access to more details. I find his daily takes useful when combined with daily takes from Landry and Geoff, as well as weekly takes from Hussman and Cara, among others.
I actually see a lot of similarity with some Landry set-ups. Maybe nopt the same selection as Landry goes for higher historical volatility, but the technical reasoning (triggers and levels) in some of the trades are very similar. For example, the UUP trade was really a trend knock/reversal. The biggest difference would be the longevity. Deron trades are really swing set-ups where Landry is really using swing entries with targets for swing profits and then B&H/trend following for the last half of the position.
I find the Landry service, the AM newsletter, Geoff's AM reports and the Deron set-ups very useful.
Hmmmm. There's no free lunch. That hungry man stuff can't be good for you or taste that good, but the Downtown Brown probably helps.
Tonight we had BBQ rib steaks and Caesar salad washed down with Negra Modelo. I got these rib steaks at Fred Meyer (Kroger) and they were over 1" thick and VERY tender. It took me about 30 mins to make dinner for myself and the little woman.
Well, its better than pigging out at a buffet or dining at most restaurants. Personally, I am reducing consumption of red meat and even "fried" foods. I'm losing pounds and doing more walking with my new hip. Have a way to go after years of enduring a bad hip. Now, alcohol consumption is a source of too many calories but what the hell. A guy has to have some fun!
davefairtex says what he linked to is free. It's Deron's daily video. Pretty simple stuff with MA's and recommendations based on the TREND. That's the key. Deron's setups on CC are all ETF's. Dave's link to Deron involves more than that.
I've got some great stocks to buy and hold for 5 years, but unfortunately, they are mostly Canadian. There are tax advantages for me to hold Canadian and there are often more overlooked stocks in Canada, so I don't buy stocks in the U.S. unless I can't get in Canada.
Having said that, 1 of top 5 for sure would be NWLI. It is at P/B of 0.38 (with an understated book value due to using the conservative insurance accounting approach), P/E of 9 and that will probably be 7 for 2012, had often traded at a P/B of 90% in the past, so could easily go up 230%+. The downside to the stock is a small dividend (but that hasn't been a major issue in the past, so likely won't be in the future) and the risk of interest rates staying low for a very long time. Even with low rates though, they will remain profitable.
My second stock would be a hotel stock and in the U.S., I bought AHT. 4.8% dividend, smart managers, have arranged the bulk of their financing to be non-recourse, are tough - let the bank take away their Detroit hotel which had fell in value rather than pumping extra corporate funds into it. The other thing they did very well is buy back a whack of their stock during the downcycle of the last few years, whereas other competitors issued shares. If you look at competitior, LHO, their long term charts are almost identical, but AHT bought back half their shares and LHO issued a whack of shares, so LHO actually outperformed on a marketcap basis by 4-fold, so AHT has a bunch of catchup to do. Plus, the hotel industry is cyclical and runs in about 4 year cycles, so if previous cycles hold, we should see a 25%+ annual return for the next 4-5 years. Rates are turning up, few hotels have been built the last few years and it is still hard to get financing. Plus, the nice offset to NWLI is that long term very low rates will actually help AHT, so it reduced the combined risk.
A 3rd stock would be a company like Ingram Micro - IM (I bought one called Hartco - HCI in Canada). These IT suppliers are cheap, have steady growth as the large IT providers like ORCL, MSFT, HP etc. look to outsource sales, you've got the Windows 8 upgrade cycle coming and it is a pretty easy business to manage as you keep many of your costs variable with sales.
I'd also pick an undervalued conglomorate like Loews -L (I do own Loews, but my larger position is in Canadian company called Clarke Inc - CKI). Loews is one of those steady asset growers that increase book value on a consistent basis, but whoo go through periods, like now, where this is no appreciated. it is currentyl at 80% of book, but traded up around 140% of book during the last upcycle. They own a P&C company, offshore drilling company, a pipeline, plus a small hotel business and natural gas business, so well diversified. Should be good for a 20% annual ROI.
For number 5, I'd probably for for an energy E&P company and one I would feel comfortable buying and putting away for 5 years would be CNQ - they've got a mix of conventional oil, oil sands and nat gas and have a very good management team who allocates capital very smartly based on the opportunities they see. You've got a 1.5% dividend, which I think will continue to grow. You could go for an integrated oil company as the refining business may be good the next while as capacity seems to be being cut, but refining is cyclical, so for 5 years, I'd stay away.
Alright Craig, you talked me into it. Two one-pound rib-eyes on the grill tonight, one each for the older son and me. Buttered white rice. Grilled tomatoes. And Downtown Brown. The meal leaves me with aura of contentment.
Excellent! Nice touch with the grilled tomatoes. Now the Downtown Brown does something entirely different doesn't it?
We went to visit the 'kid' (she's 31 so we are being a bit loose with definitions)and we all packed up and went to the "California Taco Truck" which is basically a roach coach that sells awesome gourmet Mexican food. I had three tacos, rice and beans with a Mexican coke. I probably could have lived without the Coke and had a Negra Modelo, but California Taco Trucks don't sell beer so I had to wait until I got home. It's all good.
With national economies in Europe tanking faster than you can say “Bailout!,” some countries’ equity markets are cratering.
That provides an opportunity to play the country/company comparison game – demonstrating how Company X’s market capitalization is now bigger than the entire GDP or equity market valuation of Country Y.
Take Portugal: Bank of America Merrill Lynch recently published a chart showing that Whole Foods Market, the Texas-based retailer of natural foods, has reached a market cap in the $16-billion (U.S.) range, the same as the market cap of all of Portugal’s listed equities.
Some more fun facts: The market cap of Italy’s financial sector is now the same as that of Colgate-Palmolive (around $47-billion); the total market cap of euro zone financials – about $360-billion – is less than that of Canadian financials ($377-billion); Spain and Italy’s combined equities market cap barely noses out Taiwan’s ($368-billion).
Finally: Greece’s equities valuation of about $5.8-billion is roughly equal to that of TripAdvisor.
They had a segment on energy on Bloomberg this morning and it was interesting to hear how much better we are now at extracting things from the ground than in the past. They were saying how the peak oil fear mongerers went from knowing we would have peak oil soon to now saying it was definitely happening but they had the timing wrong. They had an analyst from JPM or C (can't remember) that said he actually expects the US to be energy "independent" within 6 years. This could definitely be the catalyst for the next bull market. If we get oil down to $50 and have it stay down there the entire retail sector and restaurant could go up significantly. I think I'm gonna put DECK in my top 5 for the next 5 years.
BB - thanks for that list. I'm gonna spend some time later today checking those out.
How much of a tropical storm/hurricane season would it take to drive prices higher? This is June and we have the earliest tropical storms on record. Is this analysts talking prices into their buy zone? How much QE will it take to drive commodities higher?
CC - It's a bit weird though...you would think with the peak driving season coming up and with hurricane season coming up and with QE all over the world going on, oil would be ratcheting up. There are only two possible reasons: (1) the world economy is going down the tubes or (2) oil supplies are far greater because of better extraction techniques and cheaper alternative energy sources.
(3) Politics. One of the key issues WAS gas prices. Suddenly Europe has a cold and the dollar is stronger. I think this does a couple things. It lowers oil prices which is good for the Pres and the economy. It placates the Reps who seemed to get inflamed at their currency getting killed. It drives the markets lower which.... Gives the Fed a higher start on devaluing, drives inflation figures lower and provides an excuse to ease/devalue as Europe's cold is passed to the globe.
In my opinion Nat Gas is a major disrupting force in the entire energy market. People will realize just how much of an impact it had a couple of years from now. It also doesn't hurt that poly prices have plummeted so far that solar is now very cheap for end consumers and businesses. Those two are deadly combos for oil.
Mark, Russia is great so far -- the weather is excellent, not too hot, not too cold, almost always sunny. My most vivid impression so far is the wild greenery in the yards between high-rises. It is also fun to see drunk people early in the morning, even though there is a law banning the sale of alcohol between 10pm and 11am, so as to prevent people from chasing one bottle after another until they are dead drunk. :)
An older family friend of mine called me this past weekend to catch up and wanted to know my take on the market. I felt like an analyst that never gives a straight answer. I said I think there's a lot to be worried about but that everyone in the world is worried and has a ton of cash, including banks which have far less leverage than in 2008. I told him that we have essentially been going sideways for 13 years and in that time earnings have risen 100% so the market is much cheaper than it has been in a couple of decades. And I also said that it's impressive that we're still up 5% or so on the year given all of the crap that has happened. I still felt like telling him to get the fuck out and wait until things in Europe settle down given how close he is to retirement, but I know that is what every other investor is doing.
It's funny you look at the market today...getting clobbered on the same crap news out of Europe. Then you look at the only two econ reports out today and they were both quite positive:
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Highlights There has been some concern from some manufacturing surveys that this sector may or may not be contracting. But news from the second largest manufacturing state indicates that activity is picking back up. The Dallas Fed general business activity index rebounded to plus 5.8 in June from minus 5.1 the month before. The market consensus expected a reading of 0.0 for the general business activity index.
New Home Sales Highlights New home sales, which rose a very solid 7.6 percent in May, may become a rising positive for the economic outlook. Sales came in at a higher-than-expected annual rate of 369,000 in May, well above the Econoday forecast for 350,000 and the best rate in more than 2 years. Though April is unrevised at 343,000, there is a solid 15,000 upward revision to March to 347,000. Regionally, May's strength includes the Northeast but is concentrated in the South which by itself makes up 55 percent of all sales.
The surge of buying in May brought down supply to 4.7 months at the current sales rate which is the lowest since 2005. Price concessions from home builders may be behind some of the sales strength. Both the median and average price readings show low single digit monthly contraction with year-on-year comparisons holding in the positive mid-single range.
"It's funny you look at the market today...getting clobbered on the same crap news out of Europe. Then you look at the only two econ reports out today and they were both quite positive:"
Yep, this is why I'm in no hurry to sell. This and at some point people will realize they need some return on their money as opposed to fixed income instruments that pay nothing.
Heck, I'll just wait a bit here and see how low they sell it off before I add to my positions, feels like we're just trading in a range and they ran prices up so as to make Bernanke a scapegoat.
I still think it's wise to hold/buy FSLR despite the crap going on in the markets. The stock is extremely cheap and everyone is pessimistic on it. One bright spot today is that there is very low volume, which is what you like to see when stocks pull back in new up trends. Since it bottomed a few weeks ago every up day has been on heavy volume while every pullback has been on light volume.
GLD and SLV look like a downtrend to me, big purple arrow pointing down? Lower oil might help miners but not much if demand is continuing to tank.
Gold and silver are still considerably higher than their 2007 averages, what's the chances they retest support levels there?
That is, if you believe we're not simply witnessing a Kabuki show, like I do. Everyone knew Bernanke wasn't going to panic and announce QE, yet prices were run up with expectations of QE, what a bunch of BS that move was, just a selling off b/c we didn't get QE is in reality only an excuse to move prices for the sake of moving prices.
Look at military contractors, shouldn't government be cutting back on expenditures? Why have military contractors been in rally mode if we're not watching a Kabuki show?
I think selling here is a bet on the whole system crashing (and that, of course, is almost always a losing bet).
What worse things could happen? Spanish banks could need more money, Greece could go bankrupt, Italy could need some help - all of these are in the market already in my mind.
At some point we will get some good news. I am very interested in seeing how the markets react to that - that will be very telling to the overall market direction longer term.
Even if you were afraid things are going to get worse, I still think you could make a good stock portfolio like TOF is looking for with something like WMT, a railway (CSX is cheapest now, but CNI is best run), MET, DD (broad chemcials, good dividend and agriculture) and UL.
HDSN - I'm not so hot on this one really now that I've thought about it, anybody can recycle refrigerants, like Air Products or Air Liquide, HDSN doesn't exactly have this market cornered.
Yeah I'm not surprised to see insider selling, although it's hard to say what the motivation was.
i just turned on CNBC for the first time in a few days and that Fast Money show is on. they have some dude on talking about how he thinks Europe could turn out to be like what Japan was in the 90's. This is kind of what i was saying a while ago could potentially happen with europe. people forget that japan was a massive economy in 1990 and everyone was saying how japan had the best future and how our economy was finished.
then japan basically went into a depression. all that did was slow down our markets for a few years (from 91 to 94) where the market went up about 15% total but then when the fears of japan subsided and people realized it didn't have a big impact on our economy, the market took off. i could totally see that happen where we chop around for months on end and then zoom 5-10% higher at the end of the year, chop around for months on end then go 5 to 10% higher at the end of next year and so on. and then after europe fears fade we will rip higher on lower energy costs / energy independence, and an improving housing market some time in 2015.
2nd - did you start buying yet? we're now down about 4-5% from when you sold. i'd recommend keeping an eye on those stocks that are outperforming. compare the performance of stocks on this board that we all mention to the S&P since it topped a few days ago:
AUMN MITK NLS FSLR VELT NQ etc
the ones that outperform when the market goes down should significantly outperform when it rises.
As Jimmy says, it's five o'clock somewhere!
ReplyDeleteM down another $1, FSLR up more than a buck, PVA reasserting the upward trend out of a knockout, and all but one of the Landry shorts down another 2.5%.....I guess inspiration and listlessness is in the eye of the beholder. My portfolio was inspired today and anything but listless. It would have been downright stupendous if I hadn't tried to micromanage M yesterday and just stuck with it. An ice cold IPA makes up for most of it.
That's right, beer doesn't know what time it is! Glad to hear the service picks were kicking --- while I was looking for inspiration in all the wrong places.
ReplyDeleteYo, I should have been looking for it in a bottle _)
DeleteFor once, Kass agrees with me. Or vice versa.
ReplyDeletehttp://seabreezepartners.net/letters&id=1222&catid=15
When it doubt sit it out man. We often overtrade. Like you said 2nd, take the market on your terms. And best of all "wait for a fat pitch". My fat pitch is FSLR. This bad boy keeps on bull flagging higher. Gaps at the open leave traders on the sideline. Fades throughout out the trade to keep shorts in the game and even adding. Rinse, wash, repeat. FSLR is going to $44 this year bro.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/solar-stocks-rise-analysts-see-164459180.html
From your lips to God's ear TOF. If it goes to $44 we should all have a trader's vacation in Hawaii.
ReplyDeleteI do think at least a 50% retrace of the high is possible.
If it goes to 50% of the $300 down to $11 retracement and we're able to hold on then that would be insane. This industry is extremely cyclical. Lots of people were burned by the whole sector and it will take time for them to come back. But the demand for solar is enormous so it's feasible that FSLR could get back to the old cycle highs of $7 EPS. If investors pay 15 times those earnings then $100 isn't out of the realm of possibility. One step at a time though.
DeleteJust looking at the call options on FSLR, per think or swim, all of the implied vols that I see are over 70%
ReplyDeletehow does that compare to the puts? and how does it compare to historical volatility? I believe the put / call ratios are still very elevated for all stocks so i'm assuming IV is really high for the puts
Deleteinteresting exercise, I guess implied vol isn't so hi after all. I'm just not used to looking at options with such a high implied vol. CF is the only stock I watch with higher implieds and I don't recall it ever being as hi as FSLR's.
DeleteCF normally runs in the mid 30's%.
http://www.screencast.com/t/TDeq8Yreu
forgot to mention, the calls are columns C, D, and E. The puts are columns H, I, and J.
DeleteIt's worth it:
ReplyDeletemarket direction videos
Submitted by davefairtex (4323 comments) on Sat, 06/23/2012 - 05:01 #110470
I'm going to be a shill for a moment here.
I signed up to receive Deron's Morpheus Trading Group daily market direction videos. They are definitely worth watching. The combination of video, charts, and audio, the short clear and concise format, and the simplicity of the charts themselves make for a good thumbnail sketch of current market direction and "things to watch for".
I especially like what happened a few days ago. The SPX broke through its 50 ma and they said the market was a buy. Then when it tore through the 50 downhill on thursday, on Friday they just reversed their call, and started giving short setups. No apology, no fuss, just - its another day, and now we're looking to go short. And the attitude is like an Anti-Kramer, where things are friendly, but nobody's pulse ever goes above resting.
Here's Friday's call:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AR2ov36pRao&feature...
Currently they are targeting the 200 MA on the downside for SPX; one of their short candidates is GOOG which they would short on a bounce. They got the bounce Friday, and I'm guessing stop placement either at the top of Thursday's candle, or the 20 MA.
The daily direction, and a couple of possible setups for the day are shown in the video. Best part is, its free. They don't tell you price levels and stop placement and I think they have other setups they aren't going into - that you have to pay for - but there is good value in what they do show.
Ok, shilling time is over now.
Is this the thing you guys pay for?
DeleteIt's a new feature of the Cara blog. Deron provides a daily set-up, which he cuts and pastes from the Morpheus site. Paid membership provides access to more details. I find his daily takes useful when combined with daily takes from Landry and Geoff, as well as weekly takes from Hussman and Cara, among others.
DeleteI actually see a lot of similarity with some Landry set-ups. Maybe nopt the same selection as Landry goes for higher historical volatility, but the technical reasoning (triggers and levels) in some of the trades are very similar. For example, the UUP trade was really a trend knock/reversal. The biggest difference would be the longevity. Deron trades are really swing set-ups where Landry is really using swing entries with targets for swing profits and then B&H/trend following for the last half of the position.
DeleteI find the Landry service, the AM newsletter, Geoff's AM reports and the Deron set-ups very useful.
Eat like a king for under $5. Two one-pound frozen Hungry Man dinners hit the spot tonight. Salisbury steak $1.68. Classic fried chicken $2.89.
ReplyDeleteInflation? What inflation? It's 1973 all over again. The only difference between tonight and 1973 is I'm drinking Downtown Brown.
Hmmmm. There's no free lunch. That hungry man stuff can't be good for you or taste that good, but the Downtown Brown probably helps.
DeleteTonight we had BBQ rib steaks and Caesar salad washed down with Negra Modelo.
I got these rib steaks at Fred Meyer (Kroger) and they were over 1" thick and VERY tender. It took me about 30 mins to make dinner for myself and the little woman.
Well, its better than pigging out at a buffet or dining at most restaurants. Personally, I am reducing consumption of red meat and even "fried" foods. I'm losing pounds and doing more walking with my new hip. Have a way to go after years of enduring a bad hip. Now, alcohol consumption is a source of too many calories but what the hell. A guy has to have some fun!
Deletedavefairtex says what he linked to is free. It's Deron's daily video. Pretty simple stuff with MA's and recommendations based on the TREND. That's the key. Deron's setups on CC are all ETF's. Dave's link to Deron involves more than that.
ReplyDeleteInteresting articles on www.objectivetrader.com. He's still looking long and likes the energy sector and silver.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Volume was 6x, close at HOD... Is that a good indicator?
ReplyDeleteCP- I think it was added to an index. Rebalancing was Fri.
DeleteVALE - Dividend 3%, better than Treasuries or most any CD?
ReplyDeleteVECO - Remember a time not so long ago when share price seemed to suggest this company was on the ropes?
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteI've got some great stocks to buy and hold for 5 years, but unfortunately, they are mostly Canadian. There are tax advantages for me to hold Canadian and there are often more overlooked stocks in Canada, so I don't buy stocks in the U.S. unless I can't get in Canada.
Having said that, 1 of top 5 for sure would be NWLI. It is at P/B of 0.38 (with an understated book value due to using the conservative insurance accounting approach), P/E of 9 and that will probably be 7 for 2012, had often traded at a P/B of 90% in the past, so could easily go up 230%+. The downside to the stock is a small dividend (but that hasn't been a major issue in the past, so likely won't be in the future) and the risk of interest rates staying low for a very long time. Even with low rates though, they will remain profitable.
My second stock would be a hotel stock and in the U.S., I bought AHT. 4.8% dividend, smart managers, have arranged the bulk of their financing to be non-recourse, are tough - let the bank take away their Detroit hotel which had fell in value rather than pumping extra corporate funds into it. The other thing they did very well is buy back a whack of their stock during the downcycle of the last few years, whereas other competitors issued shares. If you look at competitior, LHO, their long term charts are almost identical, but AHT bought back half their shares and LHO issued a whack of shares, so LHO actually outperformed on a marketcap basis by 4-fold, so AHT has a bunch of catchup to do. Plus, the hotel industry is cyclical and runs in about 4 year cycles, so if previous cycles hold, we should see a 25%+ annual return for the next 4-5 years. Rates are turning up, few hotels have been built the last few years and it is still hard to get financing. Plus, the nice offset to NWLI is that long term very low rates will actually help AHT, so it reduced the combined risk.
A 3rd stock would be a company like Ingram Micro - IM (I bought one called Hartco - HCI in Canada). These IT suppliers are cheap, have steady growth as the large IT providers like ORCL, MSFT, HP etc. look to outsource sales, you've got the Windows 8 upgrade cycle coming and it is a pretty easy business to manage as you keep many of your costs variable with sales.
I'd also pick an undervalued conglomorate like Loews -L (I do own Loews, but my larger position is in Canadian company called Clarke Inc - CKI). Loews is one of those steady asset growers that increase book value on a consistent basis, but whoo go through periods, like now, where this is no appreciated. it is currentyl at 80% of book, but traded up around 140% of book during the last upcycle. They own a P&C company, offshore drilling company, a pipeline, plus a small hotel business and natural gas business, so well diversified. Should be good for a 20% annual ROI.
For number 5, I'd probably for for an energy E&P company and one I would feel comfortable buying and putting away for 5 years would be CNQ - they've got a mix of conventional oil, oil sands and nat gas and have a very good management team who allocates capital very smartly based on the opportunities they see. You've got a 1.5% dividend, which I think will continue to grow. You could go for an integrated oil company as the refining business may be good the next while as capacity seems to be being cut, but refining is cyclical, so for 5 years, I'd stay away.
Alright Craig, you talked me into it. Two one-pound rib-eyes on the grill tonight, one each for the older son and me. Buttered white rice. Grilled tomatoes. And Downtown Brown. The meal leaves me with aura of contentment.
ReplyDeleteExcellent! Nice touch with the grilled tomatoes. Now the Downtown Brown does something entirely different doesn't it?
DeleteWe went to visit the 'kid' (she's 31 so we are being a bit loose with definitions)and we all packed up and went to the "California Taco Truck" which is basically a roach coach that sells awesome gourmet Mexican food. I had three tacos, rice and beans with a Mexican coke. I probably could have lived without the Coke and had a Negra Modelo, but California Taco Trucks don't sell beer so I had to wait until I got home. It's all good.
Yo, people, is anyone planning to trade today? :)
ReplyDeleteAs soon as I climb out from under my desk....
DeleteEither go short, pick up something here, or wait for better prices?
DeleteYeah, I shoulda picked up some TVIX, shoulda-coulda but it doesn't feel like investing.
Not really. Should be back to normal next week here. How's mother Russia?
DeletePAL - Inching closer to $2...
ReplyDeleteWith national economies in Europe tanking faster than you can say “Bailout!,” some countries’ equity markets are cratering.
ReplyDeleteThat provides an opportunity to play the country/company comparison game – demonstrating how Company X’s market capitalization is now bigger than the entire GDP or equity market valuation of Country Y.
Take Portugal: Bank of America Merrill Lynch recently published a chart showing that Whole Foods Market, the Texas-based retailer of natural foods, has reached a market cap in the $16-billion (U.S.) range, the same as the market cap of all of Portugal’s listed equities.
Some more fun facts: The market cap of Italy’s financial sector is now the same as that of Colgate-Palmolive (around $47-billion); the total market cap of euro zone financials – about $360-billion – is less than that of Canadian financials ($377-billion); Spain and Italy’s combined equities market cap barely noses out Taiwan’s ($368-billion).
Finally: Greece’s equities valuation of about $5.8-billion is roughly equal to that of TripAdvisor.
Sounds like Europe's a screaming blue light special?
DeleteJPM - Cuts oil forecast - I guess this is the bottom???
ReplyDeleteDavid- I'm on the roof with the long gun covering your back, bro.
ReplyDeleteAUMN/MUX - I wanna buy one of these, someone stop me!!!
ReplyDeleteInitial signs of dip buyers are stepping up.
ReplyDeleteNBG - Heading back to $1 ?
ReplyDeleteREDF - Green on 8700 shares traded!!!
ReplyDeletePM Miners - Can't muster a rally with the underlying flat and oil prices falling???
ReplyDeleteARNA - There's no stopping this thing.
ReplyDeletePBR - Well there's a gap down that needs to close now...
ReplyDeleteThey had a segment on energy on Bloomberg this morning and it was interesting to hear how much better we are now at extracting things from the ground than in the past. They were saying how the peak oil fear mongerers went from knowing we would have peak oil soon to now saying it was definitely happening but they had the timing wrong. They had an analyst from JPM or C (can't remember) that said he actually expects the US to be energy "independent" within 6 years. This could definitely be the catalyst for the next bull market. If we get oil down to $50 and have it stay down there the entire retail sector and restaurant could go up significantly. I think I'm gonna put DECK in my top 5 for the next 5 years.
ReplyDeleteBB - thanks for that list. I'm gonna spend some time later today checking those out.
"They had an analyst from JPM or C (can't remember) that said he actually expects the US to be energy "independent" within 6 years."
ReplyDeleteThis would definitely be economically positive and tax receipts from energy producers should skyrocket.
Lower petroleum should improve fertilizer manufacturers bottom line?
Deletethat makes sense to me.
DeleteHow much of a tropical storm/hurricane season would it take to drive prices higher? This is June and we have the earliest tropical storms on record. Is this analysts talking prices into their buy zone? How much QE will it take to drive commodities higher?
DeleteCC - It's a bit weird though...you would think with the peak driving season coming up and with hurricane season coming up and with QE all over the world going on, oil would be ratcheting up. There are only two possible reasons: (1) the world economy is going down the tubes or (2) oil supplies are far greater because of better extraction techniques and cheaper alternative energy sources.
Delete(3) Politics. One of the key issues WAS gas prices. Suddenly Europe has a cold and the dollar is stronger. I think this does a couple things.
DeleteIt lowers oil prices which is good for the Pres and the economy.
It placates the Reps who seemed to get inflamed at their currency getting killed.
It drives the markets lower which....
Gives the Fed a higher start on devaluing, drives inflation figures lower and provides an excuse to ease/devalue as Europe's cold is passed to the globe.
(4) The relationship of most energy sources to NG. Maybe T. Boone is right, but early.
DeleteIn my opinion Nat Gas is a major disrupting force in the entire energy market. People will realize just how much of an impact it had a couple of years from now. It also doesn't hurt that poly prices have plummeted so far that solar is now very cheap for end consumers and businesses. Those two are deadly combos for oil.
DeleteTook a loss on a little of my GRVY at $1.73-$1.75 and moved that into FSLR at $15.14.
ReplyDeleteMark, Russia is great so far -- the weather is excellent, not too hot, not too cold, almost always sunny. My most vivid impression so far is the wild greenery in the yards between high-rises. It is also fun to see drunk people early in the morning, even though there is a law banning the sale of alcohol between 10pm and 11am, so as to prevent people from chasing one bottle after another until they are dead drunk. :)
ReplyDeleteHe, he, I don't think I could drink every day. Once a week is enough for me and I far from that now.
DeleteAn older family friend of mine called me this past weekend to catch up and wanted to know my take on the market. I felt like an analyst that never gives a straight answer. I said I think there's a lot to be worried about but that everyone in the world is worried and has a ton of cash, including banks which have far less leverage than in 2008. I told him that we have essentially been going sideways for 13 years and in that time earnings have risen 100% so the market is much cheaper than it has been in a couple of decades. And I also said that it's impressive that we're still up 5% or so on the year given all of the crap that has happened. I still felt like telling him to get the fuck out and wait until things in Europe settle down given how close he is to retirement, but I know that is what every other investor is doing.
ReplyDeleteIt's funny you look at the market today...getting clobbered on the same crap news out of Europe. Then you look at the only two econ reports out today and they were both quite positive:
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
Highlights
There has been some concern from some manufacturing surveys that this sector may or may not be contracting. But news from the second largest manufacturing state indicates that activity is picking back up. The Dallas Fed general business activity index rebounded to plus 5.8 in June from minus 5.1 the month before. The market consensus expected a reading of 0.0 for the general business activity index.
New Home Sales
Highlights
New home sales, which rose a very solid 7.6 percent in May, may become a rising positive for the economic outlook. Sales came in at a higher-than-expected annual rate of 369,000 in May, well above the Econoday forecast for 350,000 and the best rate in more than 2 years. Though April is unrevised at 343,000, there is a solid 15,000 upward revision to March to 347,000. Regionally, May's strength includes the Northeast but is concentrated in the South which by itself makes up 55 percent of all sales.
The surge of buying in May brought down supply to 4.7 months at the current sales rate which is the lowest since 2005. Price concessions from home builders may be behind some of the sales strength. Both the median and average price readings show low single digit monthly contraction with year-on-year comparisons holding in the positive mid-single range.
"It's funny you look at the market today...getting clobbered on the same crap news out of Europe. Then you look at the only two econ reports out today and they were both quite positive:"
DeleteYep, this is why I'm in no hurry to sell. This and at some point people will realize they need some return on their money as opposed to fixed income instruments that pay nothing.
Heck, I'll just wait a bit here and see how low they sell it off before I add to my positions, feels like we're just trading in a range and they ran prices up so as to make Bernanke a scapegoat.
I still think it's wise to hold/buy FSLR despite the crap going on in the markets. The stock is extremely cheap and everyone is pessimistic on it. One bright spot today is that there is very low volume, which is what you like to see when stocks pull back in new up trends. Since it bottomed a few weeks ago every up day has been on heavy volume while every pullback has been on light volume.
ReplyDeleteLook at GLD and SLV. what is that saying?
DeleteYou mean today's move? i have no freaking idea. then again i really haven't paid much attention to those ever.
DeleteGLD and SLV look like a downtrend to me, big purple arrow pointing down? Lower oil might help miners but not much if demand is continuing to tank.
DeleteGold and silver are still considerably higher than their 2007 averages, what's the chances they retest support levels there?
That is, if you believe we're not simply witnessing a Kabuki show, like I do. Everyone knew Bernanke wasn't going to panic and announce QE, yet prices were run up with expectations of QE, what a bunch of BS that move was, just a selling off b/c we didn't get QE is in reality only an excuse to move prices for the sake of moving prices.
Look at military contractors, shouldn't government be cutting back on expenditures? Why have military contractors been in rally mode if we're not watching a Kabuki show?
GEOY - Taking one on the chin today.
That GEOY is kinda interesting.
DeleteRupee - 57.18 - A new low against the dollar. Sensex still looks pretty good though, considering.
ReplyDeleteHDSN - Please tell me this POS isn't gonna break out...
ReplyDeleteDollar - 83.56 upside resistance target?
ReplyDeleteSTD - No more ticker?
ReplyDeleteSTD is now SAN.
DeleteDon't know why - it was always a very easy symbol to remember!
STD was a Spanish bank though wasn't it? Was it assimilated by the Borg?!?!?
DeleteI think selling here is a bet on the whole system crashing (and that, of course, is almost always a losing bet).
ReplyDeleteWhat worse things could happen? Spanish banks could need more money, Greece could go bankrupt, Italy could need some help - all of these are in the market already in my mind.
At some point we will get some good news. I am very interested in seeing how the markets react to that - that will be very telling to the overall market direction longer term.
Even if you were afraid things are going to get worse, I still think you could make a good stock portfolio like TOF is looking for with something like WMT, a railway (CSX is cheapest now, but CNI is best run), MET, DD (broad chemcials, good dividend and agriculture) and UL.
ReplyDeleteBB - I agree man. While there's obviously the chance for things to get cheaper there are a lot of cyclical stocks that are very cheap.
DeleteGEOY - Will this one close above it's opening price, $15.05?
ReplyDeleteNope, ran out of steam.
DeleteCP - I like HDSN a lot just because it's another one of those secular growth stocks that could care less about a shitty stock market.
ReplyDeletethen again, lots of insider selling lately. i'll stick with FSLR, REDF, GRVY, STS for now.
DeleteHDSN - I'm not so hot on this one really now that I've thought about it, anybody can recycle refrigerants, like Air Products or Air Liquide, HDSN doesn't exactly have this market cornered.
DeleteYeah I'm not surprised to see insider selling, although it's hard to say what the motivation was.
Trying VELT. 6.50/.51
ReplyDeleteI know, I know...how very brave of me...
Deletewow. look at CF fellas. very strong lately. same with MON, MOS, POT
ReplyDeletei just turned on CNBC for the first time in a few days and that Fast Money show is on. they have some dude on talking about how he thinks Europe could turn out to be like what Japan was in the 90's. This is kind of what i was saying a while ago could potentially happen with europe. people forget that japan was a massive economy in 1990 and everyone was saying how japan had the best future and how our economy was finished.
ReplyDeletethen japan basically went into a depression. all that did was slow down our markets for a few years (from 91 to 94) where the market went up about 15% total but then when the fears of japan subsided and people realized it didn't have a big impact on our economy, the market took off. i could totally see that happen where we chop around for months on end and then zoom 5-10% higher at the end of the year, chop around for months on end then go 5 to 10% higher at the end of next year and so on. and then after europe fears fade we will rip higher on lower energy costs / energy independence, and an improving housing market some time in 2015.
2nd - did you start buying yet? we're now down about 4-5% from when you sold. i'd recommend keeping an eye on those stocks that are outperforming. compare the performance of stocks on this board that we all mention to the S&P since it topped a few days ago:
ReplyDeleteAUMN
MITK
NLS
FSLR
VELT
NQ
etc
the ones that outperform when the market goes down should significantly outperform when it rises.
$NDX - About another 30 downside points to go?
ReplyDelete