tof- The nice thing about allowing a sixth sense to dictate trading entries/exits is the complete lack of stress. I don't anticipate, and I don't pore over charts. The next trade will take care of itself.
OK, sorry. I read this wrong. I thought you were saying you just follow along with the market until you get "a feeling" the time is right to invest. In my experience, feelings are bad as they tend to get more positive as the market rises and don't provide the level of conviction I need in a trade if it goes against me to make good decisions.
i asked the bosses boss at work (which i usually refer to as boss, one of my many bosses) about carter a few weeks ago because she has a pretty good memory. She said she though he was actually one of the most intelligent presidents but he surrounded himself with his cronies and they weren't so good. She though he was probably one of the most intelligent presidents ever to serve but then Clinton is a Rhodes scholar and she said they don't just give those away either.
ok, I had a cortisone shot in my ankle and I'm sure THAT's why my typin and spellin aren't so good. I'm not sure yet why they aren't so good on the other nights.
my intuition is telling me that we're most likely in a trading range...too many bears to go down significantly...too much negative news to shoot higher. let's see how earnings go. my suspicion is it will be middle of the road. in the meantime, i think it's probably good to buy dips and sells rips if you want to trade it. or buy beaten down stocks that appear to be outperforming. i like FSLR for this reason.
I've been thinking trading range for a couple of weeks but wouldn't it be nice if we could move it lower over the next few weeks so we could get a monster presidential election year rally?
Sold the last of my long SPY puts today from a strangle I had bought on 6/8. Lost about $200 on it. I had profits the day after I bot it, should have closed it then.
Few things I've noticed about asian markets: *Hang Seng > just attempted to come back above the 200 DMA but got rejected. However, still appears to be making a series of higher lows since last fall and if it breaks above the 200 DMA it could be a buy *Sensex > Today marks the 6th straight day above the 200 DMA *Kospi > See Hang Seng
I think it is a good time to be looking at stocks in some of the European countries for things to buy. Many of these are very cheap, but they could get cheaper, so I'm looking to buy in phases, not go all in at once. I think though, in the longer term, these will be very good purchases.
I mentioned Spanish utility Iberdrola (IBDRY) a couple of days ago - it pays a yield of over 9% (it is best to go to a European site like uk.reuters.com for info on these stocks). ts through it 45% ownership of Verizon.
I also owned Vodaphone (VOD). They are based in the UK, but are a global phone (mainly mobile) phone company and now yield about 8% as they are passing on the dividends through their 45% ownership of Verizon.
DUST - This one's climbing. Shorted as a PM hedge, sold if PM's fall, can't seem to make profits even when metals prices are high, these miners just can't catch a break.
"the European Central Bank (to the objection of Germany) substantially lowered the quality of collateral that it would accept in return for emergency liquidity loans. This underscores that the European banking system is effectively out of good collateral"
Well, I guess they must have some gold they could use as collateral? Of course that option would probably break some kind of treaty...
Looks like FSLR's weekly chart is still looking good. Weekly MACD and stochastics crossover is bullish and stochastics moving above 20 is a bullish sign. Pullback over past two days has been on really light volume. In hindsight I regret not selling on the pop on Friday. Its so hard to game these moves correctly...I've been taking profits right away since a month ago and missed out on big moves in NLS and MITK so that had me thinking the same with FSLR. doh! Anyway, I don't see any cause for concern with these low vol pullbacks. The solar sector is getting beaten up on the LDK report but I think what's bad for them might be good for FSLR as we know that the demand for solar is growing and that demand has to go somewhere...my guess is FSLR is winning a lot of projects because they are more financially stable and have more experience with larger projects.
I also think at some point the bigger players that are talking about getting into solar like GE, Siemens, Buffett, would have to start considering FSLR as an investment opportunity. They recently reiterated guidance for 2012 at $4 EPS so it's trading at 3.5 times earnings. That's a pretty cheap acquisition for these larger players.
I lucked out this AM with the initial opening push and while gaming FSLR I just happened to hit the sell at market button when it had a big jump up to 15.68. I have reloaded those shares under 15 so will wait. We look to be in a sideways range here. Anymore tropical storms or hurricanes will tend to push energy off these lows, so I think it might be good to position trade energy. See Geoff's take also at BC.
I am getting some super deals on propane and gas. $1.49 for propane and gas locally is $3.35 cash. Hard to imagine this isn't election related somehow, but I never look a gift horse in the mouth.
CP - I think it makes sense to start buying DECK here if you want to own the stock. I honestly don't know where the downside ends but the stock is quite cheap. It's now trading at around 8 times owner earnings and 9 times EPS. I guess the question is: are knockoffs hurting them and is warm weather really a concern? On the positive side they have been killed by higher input costs which with the commodity collapse I'm assuming they will do better. Also, they are expanding aggressively into Asia over the next few years with their own stores and I would have to assume that will do well. If they can double earnings over the next 5 years (earnings tripled over last 4 years) then you could see $9 earnings. If the market is doing better and paying 18 to 20 times earnings then this could be a 4 bagger.
Tap, tap, tap on his watch crystal... I'd really like to add at some point before my heart stops beating and I blow away with the dust, so where's that giant sell-off we were promised based on ancient news?
Perhaps the market has already begun looking past this month's recession?
Just trying to get in the mind of someone considering FSLR as an investment. The stock is down 95% from the highs and up about 30% from the lows. I would say the professional trader is clearly skeptical of this move higher, especially after teh drubbing it took after the January-February rally. So they're waiting for confirmation. There are probably a decent amount of traders in the stock right now that are also very cautious about it, looking to bail on any move lower.
So my best guess is the stock drops below support over the next week or so to get those short term weak longs out of the stock, then it does an about face and rips higher, preventing both the longs that were right but too weak to hold and the ones waiting on the sideline looking to get in from profiting from the stock.
So if that's the case then what would be considered a break of support? My guess is a close below 14.5 would be a good spot for a false breakdown. I'm going to try to build up some cash from my other positions for this.
The way I'd look at FSLR and solar stocks in general is that you had the typical huge push into a new technology. This created the not-unexpected, huge overcapacity.
The question now is has enough capital been destroyed that the remaining players can be profitable, especially as governments are forced to cut back on subsidies due to economic constraints.
I know in my little town of 2,000 people, we had a solar company start up and it has since shut down due to profitability issues since the Ontario government changed the rules. Similarly, one of our bigger automation companies bankrupted their France division and is trying, unsuccessfully so far, to sell their Ontario division.
So, some capital destruction is for sure occurring. The hard part is to know if it enough given the size of the market.
I wouldn't buy solar now for an investment, because I don't know enough to pick the winners. I think it will be like water treatment though, where you get some big players like GE getting into the market organically, takeovers of the small successful guys and the rest bankrupt. Longer term it will be dominated by the GE's, Siemens, etc.
I remember last year there was a good deal of speculation about GE and / or Siemens buying FSLR. I'd have to imagine if they had that discussion at $60 they are probably having it again at 1/4 of the price.
BTU is hurting man. Jeez. The rally back in April was almost the same exact length as the rally in FSLR since June 4. Obviously that was a terrible time to buy BTU. The only difference I can point to is valuation. Back in April BTU was trading at around 10 times forward earnings. FSLR is currently trading at 3.6 times earnings.
Very similar sectors obviously...both killed by nat gas.
The other thing is the volume spikes...there weren't really any bullish volume spikes on BTU during that April mini rally. MACD crossover wasn't present either. Also full stochastics didn't stay above the 20 buy signal. There was a bullish crossover but no confirmation of the crossover above 20. Lots of similarities here, though. If FSLR stalls out here then it's possible that this was a false rally.
Looks like my thesis about the stops being hit in FSLR might come to fruition. I've read a few blog posts / tweets etc about getting stopped out of FSLR and how it's heading lower. It's setting up.
Problem with first solar is you don't know what is a real long term earnings potential it is. They are paying farmers around here 10 * the rate of electricity to install it. Without the subsidy, it all goes away.
I think big companies like GE will just sit back and wait and see how it all shakes out. They'll probably pay more to get in, But then they'll at least know what they are getting into and what the winning technology will be.
yeah i hear ya man. its tough because it's so damn competitive (then again what industry isn't nowadays?). my main argument is the chart looks like it's bottoming and the valuation is still extremely cheap and there will continue to be a lot of demand for the technology. but if the stock begins pulling back much more than another $0.70 I'll be out of it anyway. on a very short term basis the chart appears to be stalling out but i think it's got another run in it past the 50 DMA. several important bullish news items came out in the past 2 weeks (european demand increase, LA county project restarting, india demand, japan demand) that could provide more upside and cause shorts to cover.
Don't you find yourself getting whipsawed without a plan to follow?
ReplyDeleteI have a plan. Getting whipsawed is not a problem as long as I'm in sync with what's happening.
DeleteOK, sorry. I read this wrong. I thought you were saying you just follow along with the market until you get "a feeling" the time is right to invest. In my experience, feelings are bad as they tend to get more positive as the market rises and don't provide the level of conviction I need in a trade if it goes against me to make good decisions.
ReplyDeleteNo, you read it right the first time. The only thing working for me right now is intuition.
Deletehttp://news.yahoo.com/jimmy-carter-accuses-u-widespread-abuse-human-rights-154057442--abc-news-politics.html
ReplyDeleteWe all made fun of Carter during his tenure. In his later years (and mine) I find much to admire.
i've always heard that carter was a good guy and it's good to see him standing up against this.
Deletei asked the bosses boss at work (which i usually refer to as boss, one of my many bosses) about carter a few weeks ago because she has a pretty good memory. She said she though he was actually one of the most intelligent presidents but he surrounded himself with his cronies and they weren't so good. She though he was probably one of the most intelligent presidents ever to serve but then Clinton is a Rhodes scholar and she said they don't just give those away either.
Deleteok, I had a cortisone shot in my ankle and I'm sure THAT's why my typin and spellin aren't so good. I'm not sure yet why they aren't so good on the other nights.
Delete$NDX - About another 30 downside points to go?
ReplyDeletemy intuition is telling me that we're most likely in a trading range...too many bears to go down significantly...too much negative news to shoot higher. let's see how earnings go. my suspicion is it will be middle of the road. in the meantime, i think it's probably good to buy dips and sells rips if you want to trade it. or buy beaten down stocks that appear to be outperforming. i like FSLR for this reason.
ReplyDeleteI've been thinking trading range for a couple of weeks but wouldn't it be nice if we could move it lower over the next few weeks so we could get a monster presidential election year rally?
ReplyDeleteIts probably time to start buying/shorting drops/rallies at the end of the day, smaller positions sizes of course.
ReplyDeleteSold the last of my long SPY puts today from a strangle I had bought on 6/8. Lost about $200 on it. I had profits the day after I bot it, should have closed it then.
ReplyDeleteGoing to watch ATW for a shorting opportunity. Closed at 35.50 on a big down day on more or less normal volume.
ReplyDeleteNeeds to trade above 36.48 then resume the downtrend before an entry is triggered so two days min. Hopefully we rally tomorrow to give the bulls hope.
ON the weekly chart there is resistance around 35 and again around 32.50 so I'll look for a better short, till then ATW is on the list.
Keeping a max loss around $500 would give me a rough position size of 150 to 200 shares.
I"m thinking there's a good chance we experience a green day tomorrow, or Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteIn keeping with the "This is a market for dummies" theme.
Few things I've noticed about asian markets:
ReplyDelete*Hang Seng > just attempted to come back above the 200 DMA but got rejected. However, still appears to be making a series of higher lows since last fall and if it breaks above the 200 DMA it could be a buy
*Sensex > Today marks the 6th straight day above the 200 DMA
*Kospi > See Hang Seng
DECK - Are we there yet? You guys got a good entry price in mind on this one?
ReplyDeleteWonder why the MF (money flow) hasn't budged at all?
DeleteMGA - I'm putting this one on my shopping list.
ReplyDeleteMDW erased that strange move on Friday. Might be worth watching.
ReplyDeleteGood article about buying the panic in Greece:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mebanefaber.com/2012/06/25/blood-in-the-streets-or-greece/
I think it is a good time to be looking at stocks in some of the European countries for things to buy. Many of these are very cheap, but they could get cheaper, so I'm looking to buy in phases, not go all in at once. I think though, in the longer term, these will be very good purchases.
I mentioned Spanish utility Iberdrola (IBDRY) a couple of days ago - it pays a yield of over 9% (it is best to go to a European site like uk.reuters.com for info on these stocks).
ts through it 45% ownership of Verizon.
looks like the last of your message was cut off. are you saying that IBDRY is 45% owned by VZ?
DeleteNo, sorry.
DeleteIBDRY is just the utility.
Was pasting in the following:
I also owned Vodaphone (VOD). They are based in the UK, but are a global phone (mainly mobile) phone company and now yield about 8% as they are passing on the dividends through their 45% ownership of Verizon.
DUST - This one's climbing. Shorted as a PM hedge, sold if PM's fall, can't seem to make profits even when metals prices are high, these miners just can't catch a break.
ReplyDeleteMDW - Like that really cute girl that lived just down the street who was always getting into some sort of trouble.
ReplyDeleteMDW is a floozie?
DeleteWith a mysterious attitude.
DeleteSold the rest of my GRVY at $1.73 avg and bought more FSLR at $14.99
ReplyDeleteCAST - I guess this one's trading again?
ReplyDeleteYou might want to read this. Then again....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc120625.htm
"the European Central Bank (to the objection of Germany) substantially lowered the quality of collateral that it would accept in return for emergency liquidity loans. This underscores that the European banking system is effectively out of good collateral"
DeleteWell, I guess they must have some gold they could use as collateral? Of course that option would probably break some kind of treaty...
PAL - Almost $2......
ReplyDeleteGDX @ 44.12.
ReplyDeleteWDC - This thing's been green all day....
ReplyDeleteSQNM - Maybe this thing can break through $4.34 resistance this time around?
ReplyDeleteEWRL - Taking half off here...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-26/ldk-solar-falls-after-loss-on-polysilicon-production-cost.html
ReplyDeleteWM - How about this one, if EWRL can do it, then why not WM?
ReplyDeleteCP - If WM, then why not ABHD?
DeleteABHD - Toxic waste hazmat sponges have been around for quite a while, I'm not sure WM and/or EWRL are sponge worthy?
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-26/christie-may-sign-n-j-bill-to-increase-solar-requirement.html
ReplyDeleteLooks like FSLR's weekly chart is still looking good. Weekly MACD and stochastics crossover is bullish and stochastics moving above 20 is a bullish sign. Pullback over past two days has been on really light volume. In hindsight I regret not selling on the pop on Friday. Its so hard to game these moves correctly...I've been taking profits right away since a month ago and missed out on big moves in NLS and MITK so that had me thinking the same with FSLR. doh! Anyway, I don't see any cause for concern with these low vol pullbacks. The solar sector is getting beaten up on the LDK report but I think what's bad for them might be good for FSLR as we know that the demand for solar is growing and that demand has to go somewhere...my guess is FSLR is winning a lot of projects because they are more financially stable and have more experience with larger projects.
ReplyDeleteI also think at some point the bigger players that are talking about getting into solar like GE, Siemens, Buffett, would have to start considering FSLR as an investment opportunity. They recently reiterated guidance for 2012 at $4 EPS so it's trading at 3.5 times earnings. That's a pretty cheap acquisition for these larger players.
DeleteOfficially endorsed by BACML as a buy 4/18/2012
Deletehttp://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/12/06/2665035/bank-of-america-sees-first-solar-as-an-attractive-invest
DeleteI lucked out this AM with the initial opening push and while gaming FSLR I just happened to hit the sell at market button when it had a big jump up to 15.68. I have reloaded those shares under 15 so will wait. We look to be in a sideways range here. Anymore tropical storms or hurricanes will tend to push energy off these lows, so I think it might be good to position trade energy. See Geoff's take also at BC.
DeleteI am getting some super deals on propane and gas. $1.49 for propane and gas locally is $3.35 cash. Hard to imagine this isn't election related somehow, but I never look a gift horse in the mouth.
CP - I think it makes sense to start buying DECK here if you want to own the stock. I honestly don't know where the downside ends but the stock is quite cheap. It's now trading at around 8 times owner earnings and 9 times EPS. I guess the question is: are knockoffs hurting them and is warm weather really a concern? On the positive side they have been killed by higher input costs which with the commodity collapse I'm assuming they will do better. Also, they are expanding aggressively into Asia over the next few years with their own stores and I would have to assume that will do well. If they can double earnings over the next 5 years (earnings tripled over last 4 years) then you could see $9 earnings. If the market is doing better and paying 18 to 20 times earnings then this could be a 4 bagger.
ReplyDeleteSeems like it, hard to say for sure if there's something happening on the loading dock at DECK we don't know about yet. A $44.32 close would help....
DeleteTap, tap, tap on his watch crystal... I'd really like to add at some point before my heart stops beating and I blow away with the dust, so where's that giant sell-off we were promised based on ancient news?
ReplyDeletePerhaps the market has already begun looking past this month's recession?
SLW off @ 44.46.
ReplyDeleteyou mean GDX? See? We're paying attention!
DeleteUGA - This thing's a buy, folks...
ReplyDeleteJust trying to get in the mind of someone considering FSLR as an investment. The stock is down 95% from the highs and up about 30% from the lows. I would say the professional trader is clearly skeptical of this move higher, especially after teh drubbing it took after the January-February rally. So they're waiting for confirmation. There are probably a decent amount of traders in the stock right now that are also very cautious about it, looking to bail on any move lower.
ReplyDeleteSo my best guess is the stock drops below support over the next week or so to get those short term weak longs out of the stock, then it does an about face and rips higher, preventing both the longs that were right but too weak to hold and the ones waiting on the sideline looking to get in from profiting from the stock.
So if that's the case then what would be considered a break of support? My guess is a close below 14.5 would be a good spot for a false breakdown. I'm going to try to build up some cash from my other positions for this.
Good read on why energy could bottom over at financial post:
ReplyDeletehttp://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/26/were-near-a-bottom-in-the-energy-sector/?__lsa=90b886a4
The way I'd look at FSLR and solar stocks in general is that you had the typical huge push into a new technology. This created the not-unexpected, huge overcapacity.
ReplyDeleteThe question now is has enough capital been destroyed that the remaining players can be profitable, especially as governments are forced to cut back on subsidies due to economic constraints.
I know in my little town of 2,000 people, we had a solar company start up and it has since shut down due to profitability issues since the Ontario government changed the rules. Similarly, one of our bigger automation companies bankrupted their France division and is trying, unsuccessfully so far, to sell their Ontario division.
So, some capital destruction is for sure occurring. The hard part is to know if it enough given the size of the market.
I wouldn't buy solar now for an investment, because I don't know enough to pick the winners. I think it will be like water treatment though, where you get some big players like GE getting into the market organically, takeovers of the small successful guys and the rest bankrupt. Longer term it will be dominated by the GE's, Siemens, etc.
I remember last year there was a good deal of speculation about GE and / or Siemens buying FSLR. I'd have to imagine if they had that discussion at $60 they are probably having it again at 1/4 of the price.
DeleteTrying MDW @ 1.18.
ReplyDeletePostpone/extend automatic budget cuts until March?
ReplyDeleteSold 1/2 of my STS at $3.75 that I bought last week at $3.6.
ReplyDeleteBTU - Another new low.....
ReplyDeleteBTU is hurting man. Jeez. The rally back in April was almost the same exact length as the rally in FSLR since June 4. Obviously that was a terrible time to buy BTU. The only difference I can point to is valuation. Back in April BTU was trading at around 10 times forward earnings. FSLR is currently trading at 3.6 times earnings.
DeleteVery similar sectors obviously...both killed by nat gas.
The other thing is the volume spikes...there weren't really any bullish volume spikes on BTU during that April mini rally. MACD crossover wasn't present either. Also full stochastics didn't stay above the 20 buy signal. There was a bullish crossover but no confirmation of the crossover above 20. Lots of similarities here, though. If FSLR stalls out here then it's possible that this was a false rally.
DeleteTC - Another new 52wk low
ReplyDeleteLooks like my thesis about the stops being hit in FSLR might come to fruition. I've read a few blog posts / tweets etc about getting stopped out of FSLR and how it's heading lower. It's setting up.
ReplyDeleteSQNM - Based on today's action, we're back to watching for support at $4.08
ReplyDeleteProblem with first solar is you don't know what is a real long term earnings potential it is. They are paying farmers around here 10 * the rate of electricity to install it. Without the subsidy, it all goes away.
ReplyDeleteI think big companies like GE will just sit back and wait and see how it all shakes out. They'll probably pay more to get in, But then they'll at least know what they are getting into and what the winning technology will be.
yeah i hear ya man. its tough because it's so damn competitive (then again what industry isn't nowadays?). my main argument is the chart looks like it's bottoming and the valuation is still extremely cheap and there will continue to be a lot of demand for the technology. but if the stock begins pulling back much more than another $0.70 I'll be out of it anyway. on a very short term basis the chart appears to be stalling out but i think it's got another run in it past the 50 DMA. several important bullish news items came out in the past 2 weeks (european demand increase, LA county project restarting, india demand, japan demand) that could provide more upside and cause shorts to cover.
Delete