'Longing:' A desire to go long.
The only thing stopping me from opening positions right now is the 200-day moving average. As soon as we get there, I plan to go long.
Re FSLR, I sure see that it could make a good run from here. Recently saw it was the stock the most down from the March 9, 2009 bottom. Used to have a high short interest as well (maybe still does). If it starts to move, maybe the momentum guys hop back on and it really takes off.
as of june 14 there was a rise in shares short to an all time high of 24.6 million short (44% of float) http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fslr/short-interest
Consumer nervousness over their stock portfolios is reaching an apex, which actually could mean good news for the market in the long run.
The most recent Conference Board consumer confidence survey, delivered Tuesday morning, contained an interesting nugget about worry over the state of equities.
The report found that the percentage of those who believe stock prices are going to fall shot up from 32.4 percent to 42.6 percent.
The 10.2 percentage point surge represents something of a landmark.
Looking at data back to 1987, there have been only seven occasions where the rise in stock market fortunes has eclipsed 10 percentage points in a month.
On six of those occasions, the Standard & Poor's 500 has gained after six months, with the average return at 10.2 percent, according to research from Bespoke Investment Group.
things to watch on natty, i'm hearing there is a huge glut of NGL's. If they can't find a home for the NGL's then they will have to start shutting in wells. That would reduce some of the natty production. Also, even though we have a boatload of natty, the weekly storage numbers are coming in lower when adjusted for weather which traders interpret as a reduction of supply. Sounds logical to me. I'm just sticking with the charts though. They do look a bit more bullish but we'll see, July settle is tomorrow.
Theres a downtrend from the late October highs in DECK that can be drawn through the highs in December, February, April, and May. I know traders like to use those trend lines so until that trend is broken it's probably wise to stay on the sidelines from a technical perspective. Given the slope of that trend, though, I'd suspect that a break of the trendline won't be bullish but rather a move sideways. Right now the line is around $51 or $52.
WDC - Hmm, looks like earnings report is July 20, wonder how price will react going into the event? Daily chart looks like it could rise, doesn't it, MACD has turned up and RSI(7) has cycled through 30...
redf getting a bid. nice. jesse says fslr is going down. i say look at the similarities between it and ung a couple of months ago. almost same chart. flat day today followed by huge thrust above 50dma coming very soon.
yeah i didn't realize jesse didn't email you guys as well. he was just saying that it looked like FSLR was going to dump today given how week it was yesterday.
redf getting a bid. nice. jesse says fslr is going down. i say look at the similarities between it and ung a couple of months ago. almost same chart. flat day today followed by huge thrust above 50dma coming very soon.
Since June 1, its intraday chart is a beauty -- a steady series of higher lows and higher highs in a well-defined upward sloping channel. The chances of this trend continuing for a few more days are obviously larger than of that trend stopping.
i originally had a bid in for 1,100 more FSLR at $14.6 in case they dropped it this morning but i got impatient and bought at $15.03. of course it dropped immediately after i bought it but i'm glad to see it is acting strong yet again. very nice looking chart. they can't even pull it back to the 38.2% Fib retracement on pullbacks which is a sure sign of strength. valuation is ridiculous and there is an enormous amount of shares short. if this breaks the 50 DMA look out.
Good week to be in the markets starting today: According to SentimenTrader the 5 day stretch heading into July 4 was negative only 3 times since 1990 (1 in 7)
Long small starter position in REED at $3.15. This is a recent momo stock that has pulled back recently. REED sells natural sodas and other natural products. Their products are carried in Ralphs, Vons, and several other big retail chains. Revenues have been growing steadily for several years now and they are starting to gain momentum, growing 27% last quarter. Additionally, gross margins are expanding, growing from 24% a couple of years ago to 30% this past year.
Peter Brandt @PeterLBrandt New post: Photos from my Colorado Springs backyard and immediate neighborhood. Under manditory evaculation http://bit.ly/MwFRKP
dudes - look at the similarity in the charts between UNG from 2 months ago and FSLR. It's hard to ignore. FSLR is bumping right up against the 50 DMA and the RSI(14) is around 53. this is exactly where UNG was around May 7th after it rallied for a couple of weeks off its lows. it looked like it was heading back down to its prior lows and then did an about face and ripped higher. there was a bullish macd crossover and stochastics crossover on the weekly chart, just like what is going on with FSLR.
if the similarities hold then FSLR should have one more bout of weakness to suck in the short sellers even more and get the weak longs out...i'm thinking maybe an opening lower tomorrow followed by a sharp intraday reversal.
The longer it holds just below the 50 DMA the stronger the move higher is going to be. If they can hold it down just below it and then we get some good news this sucker could easily go to $30 in the next month or two. I find it a little more than suspicious that a few analysts came out today with negative news on the solar sector at a time when it looks like FSLR has put in a bottom and is starting an uptrend. Clearly there is an agenda here. We'll find out soon enough.
Re FSLR, I sure see that it could make a good run from here. Recently saw it was the stock the most down from the March 9, 2009 bottom. Used to have a high short interest as well (maybe still does). If it starts to move, maybe the momentum guys hop back on and it really takes off.
ReplyDeleteYou bring up a good point, BB. How much of the recent buying was due to shorts closing positions on the the 21m shares they held as of May 31?
Deleteas of june 14 there was a rise in shares short to an all time high of 24.6 million short (44% of float)
Deletehttp://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fslr/short-interest
Another good contrarian indicator:
ReplyDeleteConsumer nervousness over their stock portfolios is reaching an apex, which actually could mean good news for the market in the long run.
The most recent Conference Board consumer confidence survey, delivered Tuesday morning, contained an interesting nugget about worry over the state of equities.
The report found that the percentage of those who believe stock prices are going to fall shot up from 32.4 percent to 42.6 percent.
The 10.2 percentage point surge represents something of a landmark.
Looking at data back to 1987, there have been only seven occasions where the rise in stock market fortunes has eclipsed 10 percentage points in a month.
On six of those occasions, the Standard & Poor's 500 has gained after six months, with the average return at 10.2 percent, according to research from Bespoke Investment Group.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47963429
PBR - Another lower low as well.
ReplyDeleteTCK - Found support at the ascending lower trend line.
ReplyDeleteMDW - News from behind the curve(r)
ReplyDeleteYesterday - "25-Jun-12 04:24PM Midway Gold announces unit offering comprised of one common share and one-half of one common share purchase warrant."
And then today: "26-Jun-12 05:52PM Midway Gold announces terms of $15.04 mln offering of units."
things to watch on natty, i'm hearing there is a huge glut of NGL's. If they can't find a home for the NGL's then they will have to start shutting in wells. That would reduce some of the natty production. Also, even though we have a boatload of natty, the weekly storage numbers are coming in lower when adjusted for weather which traders interpret as a reduction of supply. Sounds logical to me. I'm just sticking with the charts though. They do look a bit more bullish but we'll see, July settle is tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteTheres a downtrend from the late October highs in DECK that can be drawn through the highs in December, February, April, and May. I know traders like to use those trend lines so until that trend is broken it's probably wise to stay on the sidelines from a technical perspective. Given the slope of that trend, though, I'd suspect that a break of the trendline won't be bullish but rather a move sideways. Right now the line is around $51 or $52.
ReplyDeleteDECK - Looks like we're gonna get an ADX/MACD pinch, not sure how tight but it could get there. MACD is still headed down it seems.
ReplyDeleteZNGA - LOL, news media is pumping this thing lately.
ReplyDeleteDUST - Sure enough, this one's kickin' up.
ReplyDeleteQuick trade on FXP: opened 29.44, closed 29.61. Still have no clue why it gapped down so hard.
ReplyDeleteAs Landry would say, the market will ---- with you in the process of trending.
DeleteThinking those Jan 2.50 calls I sold at 1.20 might look good again @ .70ish.
ReplyDeleteWDC - Not quite there yet on the weekly chart, I think it could get more oversold with ADX +DI moving below 10
ReplyDeleteWDC - Hmm, looks like earnings report is July 20, wonder how price will react going into the event? Daily chart looks like it could rise, doesn't it, MACD has turned up and RSI(7) has cycled through 30...
ReplyDeleteDUST - More of the same for PM miners vs S&P, what a surprise (yawn)!
ReplyDeleteredf getting a bid. nice. jesse says fslr is going down. i say look at the similarities between it and ung a couple of months ago. almost same chart. flat day today followed by huge thrust above 50dma coming very soon.
ReplyDeleteDidn't see Jesse's note re: FSLR
DeleteREDF - Man it's hard to know which way this thing's going from minute to minute, let alone day to day, LOL! Maybe b/c it's so thin?
ADX +DI fell under 10 @$4 over a week ago, weekly isn't there yet.
yeah i didn't realize jesse didn't email you guys as well. he was just saying that it looked like FSLR was going to dump today given how week it was yesterday.
DeletePAL - This thing just hit $2, nobody gonna bite this thing???
ReplyDeleteredf getting a bid. nice. jesse says fslr is going down. i say look at the similarities between it and ung a couple of months ago. almost same chart. flat day today followed by huge thrust above 50dma coming very soon.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we're going up for at least a few days...
ReplyDeleteAll right, for diversification of my PM-centric portfolio, just bought 200 shares of FSLR at $15.10.
ReplyDeleteSince June 1, its intraday chart is a beauty -- a steady series of higher lows and higher highs in a well-defined upward sloping channel. The chances of this trend continuing for a few more days are obviously larger than of that trend stopping.
DeleteJJG - Ran like a big dog.
ReplyDeleteTZOO..22K shares traded?? Man, the momo bros have left this one.
ReplyDeletei originally had a bid in for 1,100 more FSLR at $14.6 in case they dropped it this morning but i got impatient and bought at $15.03. of course it dropped immediately after i bought it but i'm glad to see it is acting strong yet again. very nice looking chart. they can't even pull it back to the 38.2% Fib retracement on pullbacks which is a sure sign of strength. valuation is ridiculous and there is an enormous amount of shares short. if this breaks the 50 DMA look out.
ReplyDeletethis is setting up to be a huge day for REDF. I could see a 30% move today.
ReplyDeleteGood week to be in the markets starting today: According to SentimenTrader the 5 day stretch heading into July 4 was negative only 3 times since 1990 (1 in 7)
ReplyDeleteLong small starter position in REED at $3.15. This is a recent momo stock that has pulled back recently. REED sells natural sodas and other natural products. Their products are carried in Ralphs, Vons, and several other big retail chains. Revenues have been growing steadily for several years now and they are starting to gain momentum, growing 27% last quarter. Additionally, gross margins are expanding, growing from 24% a couple of years ago to 30% this past year.
ReplyDeleteREDF gaining some momentum. Could get crazy into the close if the momo guys take a hold of it.
ReplyDeleteSomeone wants to build a position in FSLR:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/solar-prices-expected-keep-falling-214451213.html
BB - Looks like somebody is buying AMNF today. I see 6 different orders of 4,500 shares that is driving up the price.
ReplyDeletePeter Brandt @PeterLBrandt
ReplyDeleteNew post: Photos from my Colorado Springs backyard and immediate neighborhood. Under manditory evaculation http://bit.ly/MwFRKP
Hope he still has a home to return to in 5 days!
DeleteWonder how fire equipment manufacturers are doing this week?
Yea ... looks real bad.
DeletePAL - Crickets chirping
ReplyDeleteDMND - Still going over the cliff...
ReplyDeleteFAS - They stopped driving FAS and parked it for lunch.
ReplyDeleteUnder the shade tree.
Deletedudes - look at the similarity in the charts between UNG from 2 months ago and FSLR. It's hard to ignore. FSLR is bumping right up against the 50 DMA and the RSI(14) is around 53. this is exactly where UNG was around May 7th after it rallied for a couple of weeks off its lows. it looked like it was heading back down to its prior lows and then did an about face and ripped higher. there was a bullish macd crossover and stochastics crossover on the weekly chart, just like what is going on with FSLR.
ReplyDeleteif the similarities hold then FSLR should have one more bout of weakness to suck in the short sellers even more and get the weak longs out...i'm thinking maybe an opening lower tomorrow followed by a sharp intraday reversal.
Was a very good entry under $12, IMO.
DeleteThe longer it holds just below the 50 DMA the stronger the move higher is going to be. If they can hold it down just below it and then we get some good news this sucker could easily go to $30 in the next month or two. I find it a little more than suspicious that a few analysts came out today with negative news on the solar sector at a time when it looks like FSLR has put in a bottom and is starting an uptrend. Clearly there is an agenda here. We'll find out soon enough.
DeleteI'm not even going to mention PVA.....:>)
ReplyDeleteAwesome stuff man. That chart is killer. I'm seeing lots of charts just like that one setting up.
DeletePAL - Looks like hammer
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete