I'll be slipping off to Oregon on vaca soon. Go ahead and make as much money as you can without me. This heat and humidity is killing me. If I were a successful trader I would just move to the northwest for the whole summer.
With what little time I have to read to night, Markman says "you can never underestimate the power of a central bank reflation cycle" which I totally agree with. That would tie in nicely with a presidential cycle rally but I just hope it doesn't happen too soon.
Still holding LEN, AKRX, long stock short calls on FSLR, and the aug 90 strike calls on NKE along with lots of other old stuff. I probably won't be adding anything till I get back. I'll let the first sell triggers and stops do their job.
dudes - i think now is the time to get into DECK and hold it for a while. i read through the conf call from last quarter and all of the factors impacting the stock are short term in nature. consider the following comments:
"In terms of our bottom line performance, earnings were down approximately 59% versus a year ago, which is primarily attributable to the increase in sheepskin prices, together with the increase in operating expense from our growing retail organization. As we have previously indicated, sheepskin prices are up 40% in 2012 from 2011."
"I think it's helpful to look at the Q1 performance of our casual spring footwear in boots separately from our cold-weather boots, as there was a meaningful difference between the 2 categories. Our expanded spring line of sandals, sneakers, wedges, fabric boots and Mini Bailey Button did very well across each of our channels, including wholesale, where our spring styles were up close to 20% and have continued to gain important shelf space. "
"With regard to fall, we are close to completing the pre-book period, and overall, we are pleased with the current level of commitments from our domestic wholesale accounts. Slippers, classics, fashion, casual boots, sneakers and casuals all booked well. Coming off of warm winter, retailers in general typically take a cautious approach to next season at this point in the year. So while the open-to-buy dollar pool has contracted a bit, based on conversations with our retailers, we believe the UGG brand's percentage of the total open-to-buy dollar pool has not diminished and that the brand, especially in the back half of the year, remains as important, if not more important, to the retailers with whom we do business. "
"The rest of Western Europe is facing similar economic challenges. In addition, it also experienced a warmer-than-usual winter, so it's not a surprise that we're seeing some conservatism from the European distributors, which is reflected in our second quarter guidance. We still view Europe, particularly Northern Europe, as having an ideal year-round climate for UGG brand products and believe the current softness is more macro-related and not indicative of the brand's appeal and long-term growth prospects. "
"Meanwhile, our UGG brand business in Asia grew at a fairly rapid pace during the first quarter. Our wholesale performance in Japan has continued to rebound following last spring's earthquake and tsunami, and we're making good headway broadening the assortment of product available at retail.
With regard to China, we're pleased to announce that we recently acquired a minority interest in our joint venture in order to capitalize on the significant opportunities there. Our partner has been tremendously helpful in assisting with the successful launch of the brand in this very important market and we'll obviously maintain a close relationship with them going forward as they're one of our key manufacturing partners. "
"eCommerce sales in total were down 7.5%, with a strong gain in Teva brand sales offset by high single-digit decline in UGG brand sales. For the UGG brand, we experienced a decline in traffic partially offset by an increase in conversion rates. In terms of top performers, our men's business did very well, led by triple-digit increases in sneakers and casuals, followed by strong gains in sandals and slippers. Our kids business also performed nicely across the board. With regard to women's, increased sales in fashion, sandals, slippers, fabric boots and handbags were offset by softness in cold-weather boots and classics. It's worth noting that we were up against a tough comparison from last January and we filled a large amount of back orders for the Classic Short Sparkles, following the style's inclusion in Oprah's final Favorite Things episode in December of 2010. "
"Throughout the quarter, we did see spikes in boot sales on days when temperatures were more seasonal. Unfortunately, those days were few and far between during the first 3 months of the year. "
Regarding sheepskin prices, in recent discussions with our suppliers, we continue to hear that prices are coming down from their historic highs. However, we will not know to what extent our full year 2013 product costs will look like compared to 2012 until we lock in prices for the fall 2013 line, which will be in October around the time we report our third quarter results. At this point, we think it would be helpful to briefly discuss the dynamics of our sheepskin supply chain and outline what has been impacting the price.
To start, sheepskin is a byproduct of the meat industry, and in addition, there are different grades of sheepskin. We primarily use premium sheepskin sourced from Australia in the production of our Classic Collection with a modest amount coming from the U.K. and U.S. Unfortunately, not all sheep are created equal. The quality of skins from most other countries does not meet our high standards and therefore cannot be utilized.
There are a number of things that impact the price of sheepskin. We believe a big reason for the recent spike has been increased demand for this limited commodity, something to which we have certainly contributed. A decline in herd sizes has also driven up the price, as worldwide consumption of lamb has been on the decline for many years. Droughts in Australia in recent years have also been a factor in herd decline, and the price of wool is also part of the story. When that commodity appreciates, farmers are more likely to keep their sheep in order to harvest the wool. Finally, changes in the strength of the Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollar also impact our cost.
"We'll start with the comp base. In the first quarter, the comp base has consisted of 27 stores, up from 24 in Q4, after adding Madison Avenue, Las Vegas and Los Angeles. Of the 27 stores in the comp, 18 are in the U.S. Boston is the only U.S. store that isn't in there; 4 are in the U.K.; 4 are in China; and 1 is in Japan. "
"Angel R. Martinez, CEO: Well, the biggest negative is weather, obviously. No one expected that we would take such a swing from 2010 winter to 2011 winter. The 2 things were at opposite extremes. So if you had retailers buying to a sell-through level in 2010 when a -- way until spring, it was still cold and snowing in some places, all the way to the opposite of that. So that's a real swing. The positive has been the way the brand has held its own. Particularly as you look at the sell-through of our spring line, the spring product has been checking extremely well, the men's business has been performing well, the kids business has been performing well. So the only places that we've struggled is really where there's a real seasonal impact to the weather. And if you look at overall, our sales were up 5% without Sanuk, so that's a really good performance company-wide in this environment."
(NOTE: Only 27 stores worldwide and 5 in Asia. Huge room for future growth. This is a premium product. Consider, for example, that there are over 350 Apple stores worldwide, over 700 Coach stores worldwide, and over 250 Tiffany Stores worldwide)
"Looking over the rest of the year, our plan calls for approximately 24 new store openings with a few in Q2 and the remainder broken down fairly evenly between Q3 and Q4. Roughly 4 will be in the U.S., with approximately 10 each in Europe and Asia, and includes some notable shopping destinations such as A la Mere in Paris, Piccadilly in London and New York's Meatpacking District. We're also doubling the size of the Madison Avenue store to accommodate more women's product, as well as the build out of our first-ever men's only store. The majority will be concept stores along with a handful of boutiques and outlets. "
TOF, looks interesting. Looked back through their history and it is rare that they get below a P/E of 8 during a year, so having the current P/E of 9, on weak earnings, would almost certainly be a good buy time. The downside risk is that if we do have a market crash scenario (which I am not expecting), they of course can drop much further and bottomed out at P/E's of 4 in 2003 and 2009.
I guess the real question is if people are willing to pay the premium price for Uggs in a tough economy or if they move downstream to the cheap knockoffs which are coming to market and cut DECK's margins. I'll have to talk to my daughter as she works at a shoe store.
Bought some Guess (GES) based on a similar rational - stock is very cheap relative to usual metrics and competition, risks I think are overstated, pays a 2.7% dividend, just completed buying back 10% of their stock and authorized another 25% buyback, no debt, $500 million in cash, managing the Europe crisis fairly well by shifting sales from Southern countries to northern countries, growth prospects around the world. But same question, they are a are people willing to pay their premium prices?
Well, I hate to read too much into a pre-holiday shortened session but as a technician I can't completely ignore the charts. With that said, the market took out short-term resistance and is plowing into longer-term overhead supply. So far, the market still has a "retrace" look vs. a major reversal. You know me though-I take things one day at a time.
Should the market continue higher, at some point, especially since I hold myself out as a trend following moron, I'd have to become bullish. My only concern is that I'm not a big fan of "V" shaped recoveries at high levels. The market often gets a little tired by the time it makes it back to its old highs.
I guess we also can't forget that we are now approaching the middle of summer and there could be some doldrums at some point.
Honor your stops on existing shorts and take partial profits as offered. I'm still seeing some decent shorts out there. Don't fight the tape though-use liberal entries and wait for them to trigger before taking a position.
I'm going to flesh this out later today in the chart show.
Buy signal confirmed on daily chart for DECK. On weekly RSI never went below 30 which is a good sign in my opinion. Also OBV didn't quite confirm the downside move. Unfortunately I only have about 1/3 of the port in this from Tues. Bummer.
Beaten down stocks are skyrocketing...take your pick. Check out JRCC and PCX. Last week it was WFR. What are some others you guys are watching (not in the metals area)? I'm thinking DMND...
"NYSE New Highs - New Lows is for my taste too bullish and this would support the theory that we see a marginal new high in July setting up a perfect Bull Trap and luring Perma Bears to give up and go long as they did in June 2011 ( let's remember that our Clown Bear Indicator went long QQQ at the year high June 2011 and GDX long in September 2011 at $ 63 which he loved to keep for a long time).
A so called perfect Bull and Bear Trap awaiting us !"
Great analog. We were talking about the similarities between 98 and now a little while ago. The market is quite overbought here and could see a small pullback before new highs...
If this scenario plays out: marginal new highs soon, then a plunge to 1,250, then a rocket higher, we should DEFINITELY keep an eye on the stocks that are setting up for big moves because any of those that don't make new lows are the ones that will skyrocket. So DECK, FSLR, coals, FIO, APKT, CREE, GMCR, DMND etc...the list that I posted a few days ago...plus plenty of others...those are the ones I think we should be watching. The key of course will be if they break the market to new highs and set a bull trap. If that happens this analogy could hold some weight and really could set up for a mammoth end of the year rally in these stocks above...and could make us all quite wealthy
I like the analogy your objectivetrader friend posted, makes sense as Europe could still take a few more months to work out and that could correspond to the range trading in his chart.
He sure has a big one for Tim Knight though - did he lose money following him or something?
sold 2 of my 3 aug 90 NKE calls for 4.40, that makes the remaining call free just in case it rallies $10.00 from here. that turned out to be a lucky trade.
Mark - Still trying to understand the APKT biz. I'm almost done researching on it from a fundy perspective. Still not completely sold on it making a big move because valuation doesn't support it like the others...DECK, FSLR, DMND, GMCR.
DMND is a little trickier but I'm nuts about their nuts (I'll be here all week).
BB - I think ObjectiveTrader dude is just a much more accurate trader and actually uses a method. He makes fun of Tim Knight because he uses emotions and apparently posts his trades after the move is made. From my following I can say that the OT guy has made some very good calls. I know Mark follows him...
Mark, FUN is one of those stocks that I'm still mad at myself for missing. It was a great limited partnership for years, paying a good dividend, then they took on too much debt with the paramount acquisition shortly before the economy tanked. The stock got down under $10 when they cut the dividend and I couldn't force myself to buy because of their debt, but now the dividend is back and the stock approaching all-time highs.
Unlike many of the other similar stocks, those guys really know how to run an amusement park business.
I am back on the USA now! So far on the East Coast, in a house we rented for a few days on Jersey Shore, so as to relax a little on the beach and swim in the ocean, before we arrive in CA.
Nice to see AUMN up when SLV is down. With two more weeks left until July OpEx, it seems entirely possible for my AUMN July $5 calls to hit their sell limit at $1.50.
Check out the chart of PNPFF -- it seems to have made a long-term bottom...
"I like the analogy your objectivetrader friend posted, makes sense as Europe could still take a few more months to work out and that could correspond to the range trading in his chart."
BB - If this analogy holds then perhaps this is how it would work out:
Pop tomorrow on nice jobs number, then fade to 20 DMA (1,340ish) over next week, then rip to new highs on confidence that jobs are good and housing is good.
Then jobs number weakens, housing levels off, fears about Europe come back the market tanks to 1,220 to 1,250, then the Fed and Central Banks step in and open up the spigots for a year end mammoth rally to 1,500.
I honestly have no idea...just spending time researching stocks that look like they could really move big. Most of them are the 2010/11 high fliers.
You're right. Trying to make charts fit previous periods patterns just gives you false confidence as they always break.
The one area I am thinking about a lot now is energy services. They have been beaten up badly and are very cheap, but are also very cyclical, so can go lower. Because the last down-cycle in energy services was so brutal, I think people are overestimating the current one and staying away from the stocks. I would not be surprised to see a downswoosh in these over the next few months which I currently think I would buy, so I am looking at some small caps (Canadian) that have good balance sheets and cash flows so I can get on this downturn if it comes. I think the largecaps like SLB and HAL will also do well, but the smallcaps give the leverage we small traders can take advantage of.
yeah i think they can rally hard too but i just can't buy into them because energy and commodities have been on such a huge bull run for so many years. that investment manager on seeking alpha i sent a link to a few days ago really hit the nail on the head in my opinion. back in jan or feb he was saying how he thinks the us will do well on the back of continued housing improvement and the sectors to own are banks and tech and pharma. he also said he thought the energy sector and anything tied to emerging growth should languish because china is so built out already and a lot of their consumption needs in the form of infrastructure etc have been met. perhaps it has trailed too much now, though, and the whole sector could bounce really hard. small caps in the sector ALWAYS outperform on a mean reversing rally. look at the coals just recently. JRCC and PCX have been enormous winners wheras BTU and ANR have rallied modestly. JRCC was up 100% and PCX 150% from the lows. maybe you can't catch the lows but shit David and I were in JRCC at $2.1...just takes some guts to hold.
Bottoming tail hammer in CTRP. $1 Billion in cash vs $2.4 Billion mkt cap. Trades at 20 times earnings; 10 times after excluding cash. Smaller competitor LONG has $300 Million in cash vs a mkt cap of $400 Million. Something smells fishy
Vacation doesn't start till Saturday. Today is running errands and exhausting myself getting ready for vacation so I will really appreciate it. I told the wife I would really like a week at home with the kids at camp and daycare.
I still have my full position of LEN. I'd really like to see that trade work out. My first sell order is 31.76 and since most of my peeps are away, I may try to get that during premarket tomorrow. Other than than, gonna leave everything as is till I get back from vaca.
Doesn't every big city have a skid row? Sad.
ReplyDeleteHappy July 4th buddies.
ReplyDeleteI'll be slipping off to Oregon on vaca soon. Go ahead and make as much money as you can without me. This heat and humidity is killing me. If I were a successful trader I would just move to the northwest for the whole summer.
With what little time I have to read to night, Markman says "you can never underestimate the power of a central bank reflation cycle" which I totally agree with. That would tie in nicely with a presidential cycle rally but I just hope it doesn't happen too soon.
Still holding LEN, AKRX, long stock short calls on FSLR, and the aug 90 strike calls on NKE along with lots of other old stuff. I probably won't be adding anything till I get back. I'll let the first sell triggers and stops do their job.
dudes - i think now is the time to get into DECK and hold it for a while. i read through the conf call from last quarter and all of the factors impacting the stock are short term in nature. consider the following comments:
ReplyDelete"In terms of our bottom line performance, earnings were down approximately 59% versus a year ago, which is primarily attributable to the increase in sheepskin prices, together with the increase in operating expense from our growing retail organization. As we have previously indicated, sheepskin prices are up 40% in 2012 from 2011."
"I think it's helpful to look at the Q1 performance of our casual spring footwear in boots separately from our cold-weather boots, as there was a meaningful difference between the 2 categories. Our expanded spring line of sandals, sneakers, wedges, fabric boots and Mini Bailey Button did very well across each of our channels, including wholesale, where our spring styles were up close to 20% and have continued to gain important shelf space. "
"With regard to fall, we are close to completing the pre-book period, and overall, we are pleased with the current level of commitments from our domestic wholesale accounts. Slippers, classics, fashion, casual boots, sneakers and casuals all booked well. Coming off of warm winter, retailers in general typically take a cautious approach to next season at this point in the year. So while the open-to-buy dollar pool has contracted a bit, based on conversations with our retailers, we believe the UGG brand's percentage of the total open-to-buy dollar pool has not diminished and that the brand, especially in the back half of the year, remains as important, if not more important, to the retailers with whom we do business. "
"The rest of Western Europe is facing similar economic challenges. In addition, it also experienced a warmer-than-usual winter, so it's not a surprise that we're seeing some conservatism from the European distributors, which is reflected in our second quarter guidance. We still view Europe, particularly Northern Europe, as having an ideal year-round climate for UGG brand products and believe the current softness is more macro-related and not indicative of the brand's appeal and long-term growth prospects. "
"Meanwhile, our UGG brand business in Asia grew at a fairly rapid pace during the first quarter. Our wholesale performance in Japan has continued to rebound following last spring's earthquake and tsunami, and we're making good headway broadening the assortment of product available at retail.
With regard to China, we're pleased to announce that we recently acquired a minority interest in our joint venture in order to capitalize on the significant opportunities there. Our partner has been tremendously helpful in assisting with the successful launch of the brand in this very important market and we'll obviously maintain a close relationship with them going forward as they're one of our key manufacturing partners. "
Continued...
ReplyDelete"eCommerce sales in total were down 7.5%, with a strong gain in Teva brand sales offset by high single-digit decline in UGG brand sales. For the UGG brand, we experienced a decline in traffic partially offset by an increase in conversion rates. In terms of top performers, our men's business did very well, led by triple-digit increases in sneakers and casuals, followed by strong gains in sandals and slippers. Our kids business also performed nicely across the board. With regard to women's, increased sales in fashion, sandals, slippers, fabric boots and handbags were offset by softness in cold-weather boots and classics. It's worth noting that we were up against a tough comparison from last January and we filled a large amount of back orders for the Classic Short Sparkles, following the style's inclusion in Oprah's final Favorite Things episode in December of 2010. "
"Throughout the quarter, we did see spikes in boot sales on days when temperatures were more seasonal. Unfortunately, those days were few and far between during the first 3 months of the year. "
Regarding sheepskin prices, in recent discussions with our suppliers, we continue to hear that prices are coming down from their historic highs. However, we will not know to what extent our full year 2013 product costs will look like compared to 2012 until we lock in prices for the fall 2013 line, which will be in October around the time we report our third quarter results. At this point, we think it would be helpful to briefly discuss the dynamics of our sheepskin supply chain and outline what has been impacting the price.
To start, sheepskin is a byproduct of the meat industry, and in addition, there are different grades of sheepskin. We primarily use premium sheepskin sourced from Australia in the production of our Classic Collection with a modest amount coming from the U.K. and U.S. Unfortunately, not all sheep are created equal. The quality of skins from most other countries does not meet our high standards and therefore cannot be utilized.
There are a number of things that impact the price of sheepskin. We believe a big reason for the recent spike has been increased demand for this limited commodity, something to which we have certainly contributed. A decline in herd sizes has also driven up the price, as worldwide consumption of lamb has been on the decline for many years. Droughts in Australia in recent years have also been a factor in herd decline, and the price of wool is also part of the story. When that commodity appreciates, farmers are more likely to keep their sheep in order to harvest the wool. Finally, changes in the strength of the Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollar also impact our cost.
continued more...
ReplyDelete"We'll start with the comp base. In the first quarter, the comp base has consisted of 27 stores, up from 24 in Q4, after adding Madison Avenue, Las Vegas and Los Angeles. Of the 27 stores in the comp, 18 are in the U.S. Boston is the only U.S. store that isn't in there; 4 are in the U.K.; 4 are in China; and 1 is in Japan. "
"Angel R. Martinez, CEO: Well, the biggest negative is weather, obviously. No one expected that we would take such a swing from 2010 winter to 2011 winter. The 2 things were at opposite extremes. So if you had retailers buying to a sell-through level in 2010 when a -- way until spring, it was still cold and snowing in some places, all the way to the opposite of that. So that's a real swing. The positive has been the way the brand has held its own. Particularly as you look at the sell-through of our spring line, the spring product has been checking extremely well, the men's business has been performing well, the kids business has been performing well. So the only places that we've struggled is really where there's a real seasonal impact to the weather. And if you look at overall, our sales were up 5% without Sanuk, so that's a really good performance company-wide in this environment."
(NOTE: Only 27 stores worldwide and 5 in Asia. Huge room for future growth. This is a premium product. Consider, for example, that there are over 350 Apple stores worldwide, over 700 Coach stores worldwide, and over 250 Tiffany Stores worldwide)
"Looking over the rest of the year, our plan calls for approximately 24 new store openings with a few in Q2 and the remainder broken down fairly evenly between Q3 and Q4. Roughly 4 will be in the U.S., with approximately 10 each in Europe and Asia, and includes some notable shopping destinations such as A la Mere in Paris, Piccadilly in London and New York's Meatpacking District. We're also doubling the size of the Madison Avenue store to accommodate more women's product, as well as the build out of our first-ever men's only store. The majority will be concept stores along with a handful of boutiques and outlets. "
TOF, looks interesting. Looked back through their history and it is rare that they get below a P/E of 8 during a year, so having the current P/E of 9, on weak earnings, would almost certainly be a good buy time. The downside risk is that if we do have a market crash scenario (which I am not expecting), they of course can drop much further and bottomed out at P/E's of 4 in 2003 and 2009.
ReplyDeleteI guess the real question is if people are willing to pay the premium price for Uggs in a tough economy or if they move downstream to the cheap knockoffs which are coming to market and cut DECK's margins. I'll have to talk to my daughter as she works at a shoe store.
Bought some Guess (GES) based on a similar rational - stock is very cheap relative to usual metrics and competition, risks I think are overstated, pays a 2.7% dividend, just completed buying back 10% of their stock and authorized another 25% buyback, no debt, $500 million in cash, managing the Europe crisis fairly well by shifting sales from Southern countries to northern countries, growth prospects around the world. But same question, they are a are people willing to pay their premium prices?
Landry-
ReplyDeleteGot Random Thoughts?
Well, I hate to read too much into a pre-holiday shortened session but as a technician I can't completely ignore the charts. With that said, the market took out short-term resistance and is plowing into longer-term overhead supply. So far, the market still has a "retrace" look vs. a major reversal. You know me though-I take things one day at a time.
Should the market continue higher, at some point, especially since I hold myself out as a trend following moron, I'd have to become bullish. My only concern is that I'm not a big fan of "V" shaped recoveries at high levels. The market often gets a little tired by the time it makes it back to its old highs.
I guess we also can't forget that we are now approaching the middle of summer and there could be some doldrums at some point.
As I told my peeps Tuesday night, I hate to be cliché but I think we are in a stock pickers market. There are still some great stocks out there but you do have to be selective. The overall market might not give us the directional backing that we desire but if you look hard enough, you might be able to find an opportunity or two (or, you could always pay me to look for you).
http://www.davelandry.com/shop/index.htm
Honor your stops on existing shorts and take partial profits as offered. I'm still seeing some decent shorts out there. Don't fight the tape though-use liberal entries and wait for them to trigger before taking a position.
I'm going to flesh this out later today in the chart show.
i like his point about some great stocks out there. just ignore market direction. fslr, coals, tan, deck, apkt, cree, fio, gmcr, dmnd all look solid.
DeleteCabinets installed and counter top template today.
ReplyDeleteill grab the keg.
DeleteDECK - Yeah, it certainly seems like the valuation has become rather silly.
ReplyDeletethat dltr looks like one helluva short
ReplyDeleteSPY- I guess we have to fill the gap, no?
ReplyDeleteEither the employment numbers were leaked, or the market is setting up retail for the biggest short possible.
ReplyDeleteSold the rest of the FSLR at $15.7. DECK looking great. Should bounce to $50 at least in the very short term is my thinking.
ReplyDeleteThinking about shorting that DLTR...
ReplyDeleteMMR- Man, that was a vertical move.
ReplyDeleteBuy signal confirmed on daily chart for DECK. On weekly RSI never went below 30 which is a good sign in my opinion. Also OBV didn't quite confirm the downside move. Unfortunately I only have about 1/3 of the port in this from Tues. Bummer.
ReplyDeleteBeaten down stocks are skyrocketing...take your pick. Check out JRCC and PCX. Last week it was WFR. What are some others you guys are watching (not in the metals area)? I'm thinking DMND...
ReplyDeleteJPM @ 34.55...
ReplyDelete6% on a third of your portfolio is a pretty good day.
ReplyDeleteYour MET looks good on the weekly chart.
Deletehttp://www.objectivetrader.com/2012/07/will-history-repeat-itself-.html
ReplyDelete"NYSE New Highs - New Lows is for my taste too bullish and this would support the theory that we see a marginal new high in July setting up a perfect Bull Trap and luring Perma Bears to give up and go long as they did in June 2011 ( let's remember that our Clown Bear Indicator went long QQQ at the year high June 2011 and GDX long in September 2011 at $ 63 which he loved to keep for a long time).
A so called perfect Bull and Bear Trap awaiting us !"
Great analog. We were talking about the similarities between 98 and now a little while ago. The market is quite overbought here and could see a small pullback before new highs...
If this scenario plays out: marginal new highs soon, then a plunge to 1,250, then a rocket higher, we should DEFINITELY keep an eye on the stocks that are setting up for big moves because any of those that don't make new lows are the ones that will skyrocket. So DECK, FSLR, coals, FIO, APKT, CREE, GMCR, DMND etc...the list that I posted a few days ago...plus plenty of others...those are the ones I think we should be watching. The key of course will be if they break the market to new highs and set a bull trap. If that happens this analogy could hold some weight and really could set up for a mammoth end of the year rally in these stocks above...and could make us all quite wealthy
DeleteI like the analogy your objectivetrader friend posted, makes sense as Europe could still take a few more months to work out and that could correspond to the range trading in his chart.
DeleteHe sure has a big one for Tim Knight though - did he lose money following him or something?
TOF- Do you understand APKT's business?
ReplyDeletesold half of my AKRX at 16.64, moved the stop up to the original purchase price.
ReplyDeletesold 2 of my 3 aug 90 NKE calls for 4.40, that makes the remaining call free just in case it rallies $10.00 from here. that turned out to be a lucky trade.
ReplyDeleteNice Porter.
DeleteEnjoying your vacation, port?
DeleteCAST- I guess this one was fake too hun?
ReplyDeleteAnother one of those cases where someone's pissing on your head while telling you it's raining.
DeleteYeppers. Unreal.
DeleteOffed the JPM @ 34.49> taking the minor loss.
ReplyDeleteMark - Still trying to understand the APKT biz. I'm almost done researching on it from a fundy perspective. Still not completely sold on it making a big move because valuation doesn't support it like the others...DECK, FSLR, DMND, GMCR.
ReplyDeleteDMND is a little trickier but I'm nuts about their nuts (I'll be here all week).
BB - I think ObjectiveTrader dude is just a much more accurate trader and actually uses a method. He makes fun of Tim Knight because he uses emotions and apparently posts his trades after the move is made. From my following I can say that the OT guy has made some very good calls. I know Mark follows him...
ReplyDeletewhen he's not fixing cabinets and what not...
DeleteHe got beat up at SOH, but damn, the boy is pretty good.
DeleteFUN...Kinda interesting on the topside of things.
Deleteanyone long would get mocked on SOH. funny how misery loves company.
DeleteI've also never seen such a cocky group of guys as SOH when things do start to go down.
DeleteMark, FUN is one of those stocks that I'm still mad at myself for missing. It was a great limited partnership for years, paying a good dividend, then they took on too much debt with the paramount acquisition shortly before the economy tanked. The stock got down under $10 when they cut the dividend and I couldn't force myself to buy because of their debt, but now the dividend is back and the stock approaching all-time highs.
DeleteUnlike many of the other similar stocks, those guys really know how to run an amusement park business.
I am back on the USA now! So far on the East Coast, in a house we rented for a few days on Jersey Shore, so as to relax a little on the beach and swim in the ocean, before we arrive in CA.
ReplyDeleteNice to see AUMN up when SLV is down. With two more weeks left until July OpEx, it seems entirely possible for my AUMN July $5 calls to hit their sell limit at $1.50.
Check out the chart of PNPFF -- it seems to have made a long-term bottom...
DANG:
ReplyDeletehttp://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90882/7865347.html
INFA halt. Anyone know enough to trade it?
ReplyDeleteQ2 View - Down 30%
DeleteExpensive stock - can't miss numbers with that kind of valuation.
DeleteLonger term, I think SAP or Oracle will buy them out, but don't think either would pay up to the current price.
"I like the analogy your objectivetrader friend posted, makes sense as Europe could still take a few more months to work out and that could correspond to the range trading in his chart."
ReplyDeleteBB - If this analogy holds then perhaps this is how it would work out:
Pop tomorrow on nice jobs number, then fade to 20 DMA (1,340ish) over next week, then rip to new highs on confidence that jobs are good and housing is good.
Then jobs number weakens, housing levels off, fears about Europe come back the market tanks to 1,220 to 1,250, then the Fed and Central Banks step in and open up the spigots for a year end mammoth rally to 1,500.
I honestly have no idea...just spending time researching stocks that look like they could really move big. Most of them are the 2010/11 high fliers.
You're right. Trying to make charts fit previous periods patterns just gives you false confidence as they always break.
DeleteThe one area I am thinking about a lot now is energy services. They have been beaten up badly and are very cheap, but are also very cyclical, so can go lower. Because the last down-cycle in energy services was so brutal, I think people are overestimating the current one and staying away from the stocks. I would not be surprised to see a downswoosh in these over the next few months which I currently think I would buy, so I am looking at some small caps (Canadian) that have good balance sheets and cash flows so I can get on this downturn if it comes. I think the largecaps like SLB and HAL will also do well, but the smallcaps give the leverage we small traders can take advantage of.
yeah i think they can rally hard too but i just can't buy into them because energy and commodities have been on such a huge bull run for so many years. that investment manager on seeking alpha i sent a link to a few days ago really hit the nail on the head in my opinion. back in jan or feb he was saying how he thinks the us will do well on the back of continued housing improvement and the sectors to own are banks and tech and pharma. he also said he thought the energy sector and anything tied to emerging growth should languish because china is so built out already and a lot of their consumption needs in the form of infrastructure etc have been met. perhaps it has trailed too much now, though, and the whole sector could bounce really hard. small caps in the sector ALWAYS outperform on a mean reversing rally. look at the coals just recently. JRCC and PCX have been enormous winners wheras BTU and ANR have rallied modestly. JRCC was up 100% and PCX 150% from the lows. maybe you can't catch the lows but shit David and I were in JRCC at $2.1...just takes some guts to hold.
DeleteBottoming tail hammer in CTRP. $1 Billion in cash vs $2.4 Billion mkt cap. Trades at 20 times earnings; 10 times after excluding cash. Smaller competitor LONG has $300 Million in cash vs a mkt cap of $400 Million. Something smells fishy
ReplyDeleteDavid - Welcome home. Where's your rental, near Wall twnshp, or Brick twnshp?
ReplyDeletedamn mark they're calling out JB on OT:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.objectivetrader.com/2012/07/spx-intraday-update-5th-july-2012.html
BB - Have you looked at Gasfrac Energy Services? They are expanding albeit slowly for now. I hold the stock.
ReplyDeleteVacation doesn't start till Saturday. Today is running errands and exhausting myself getting ready for vacation so I will really appreciate it. I told the wife I would really like a week at home with the kids at camp and daycare.
ReplyDeleteI still have my full position of LEN. I'd really like to see that trade work out. My first sell order is 31.76 and since most of my peeps are away, I may try to get that during premarket tomorrow. Other than than, gonna leave everything as is till I get back from vaca.
http://yrah53.wordpress.com/2012/07/05/poker/
ReplyDeleteInteresting take on tommorrow's possibilites