We took the big guy to see the bronze version in the outdoor sculpture garden at Stanford. Awesome. Despair, Fatigue, Protection, and (terror) all symbolized in figures that adorn the gates- states of mind familiar to all traders.
I think you guys have mentioned some of these stocks
DDD SSYS ONVO PRLB ADSK DASTY
FYI, I'm not a member of his website but I have read his books.
Article by Dr. Alexander Elder at Spike Trade AM: investing in the coming bull market (stock review) http://networkedblogs.com/zIEnR
"Additive manufacturing companies are moving into the stock market. Going public allows them to raise capital and gain credibility which will improve their access to capital markets. Let’s review several stocks that we’re tracking right now.
Why am I so interested in AM stocks?
I’ve always had a feel for ‘the next big thing.’ I was one of the first people to buy a personal computer, an old Apple. I was early on the internet (where I got my short address of elder.com). In 1996 I wrote a book Rubles to Dollars, calling for a boom and recommending ADRs of Russian stocks (the Russian index rallied from below 100 in that year to over 2,000 within ten years). This is just a partial list, but my point is – I recognize big social trends in their early stages. Let me add that I have no special pride about having this ability – it’s not something I cultivated, it’s a given, like eye color. Additive manufacturing is not my first find, but it is the latest and very exciting.
First, let me spell out the basic principle of my campaign for investing in AM stocks. In the words of Lou Taylor, my great late friend to whom Trading for a Living is dedicated, “a man who has his principles and lives by them is strong. A man without principles goes chasing random opportunities and always loses in the end.” Coming from this background, my principle of buying into AM is this:
“Buy early, add on pullbacks, and hold for many years.”
This is why, as we turn to specific stocks, I remind you that these are not trading recommendations. This is a very long-term approach. Think of buying AAPL at $20 a share and holding it for many years – that’s what we want to do in AM. I claim no special ability for picking the winner among all AM stocks. That’s why I suggest diversifying your AM investments.
At this point I have four stocks on my main AM list and two on the auxiliary list.
DDD and SSYS are the granddaddies of this young industry. We reviewed them in an earlier post.
ONVO is a bright new star – a bio-printer company which we also reviewed in a recent post.
PRLB is a 3D prototyping company whose shares were listed in 2012.
In addition, I keep an eye on these two companies:
ADSK is a granddaddy of CAD/CAM (computer aided design and manufacturing). This company is actively involved in programming for 3D printing, which seems like a natural fit for them, but it is too early to see any meaningful impact on their earnings.
DASTY is a an ADR for a French company Dassault Systemes SA. It is involved in 3D design as well as educational services, but at the time of this writing, its trading volume is very thin, under 10,000 shares/day
Remember, we track AM in two areas. The general concepts, principles, and ideas are posted in this blog. We reserve specific stock reviews for the Members’ section of SpikeTrade.com"
I kind of agree with him. BTU is prob the best suited for weathering this as they have a huge business in Aussie but I have come to the conclusion that it's probably best to avoid coal stocks.
1) How long does it take? - I don't think it's too terribly long (reasonable, less time than you might anticipate). 2) You can't buy the product online, you're desiging it nad making a prototype(perhaps a finished product depending on what's wanted, a plastic model car could be mass produced iby injection molding much cheaper and faster. Don't expect this device to crank out just any product, can't make a functional house key with it, a plastic screwdriver won't drive a wood screw.
INVN - I lowered my $10.20 bid considerably just to give this thing a little breathing room, not in such a hurry for catching knives lately(slow reflexes).
man...i've been getting quite a bit of good info from investor relations on NSPH. i'd recommend checking this company out fellas. i'm currently about 10 or 12% underwater and usually i would get the hell out but i'm looking to add more. i'll share the info after i'm done with my questions with them.
Sharing an email response from a local realtor friend:
I have been very busy with work for the market is heated once again. For some reason, the market turned very quickly in March and has been non-stop since.
------------- is a short sale and has been on the market since April, 2011. The current status is “pending–do-not-show”, indicating that they are ready to close soon. It started at $xxxxxx+ and had fallen out of escrow a couple of times. The main reason is that the buyers were tired of waiting for the lender’s approval on the sale, so they walked. This is very common in short sale transactions. The lenders have all the time and the buyers don’t.
The overall inventory is low everywhere. San ------ has only 23 single family homes on the market for sale at the current time. Prices are on the rise and multiple offers are happening like 2004-2006. The difference now is the abundance of cash buyers, foreign and local. In the lower range, like $400,000 and below, the cash buyers are investors.
Rents are soaring in general and rental supply is low. A home in the same neighborhood on ----- Drive, (remodeled, 3 BR, 1300 square feet) rented in March for $2800. There is very little for rent now. Investors, like you, are competing with occupant-buyers in this market due to high rents and low interest rates.
The biz model on NSPH is really unbelievable. This is basically the same biz model as ISRG. Right now investors are focused on cash flow needs over the short term which is looking ugly but it is a big mistake in my opinion.
The model is simple: they have this Verigene testing device that I think costs around $50k (not sure) to hospitals. NSPH finances the majority of them so the revs they get from each customer placement is low. The device performs a variety of tests from flue testing to blood testing and more. It can turn around tests in some instances right away and with the blood testing within 2 hours (vs 2-3 days currently). In addition to this they can test for a variety of infections at the same time, which with the blood tests is crucial when someone comes in with an infection and needs a targeted antibiotic for that infection immediately. Normally the doctor prescribes a broad antibiotic or a variety of them in hopes of solving the problem. 2-3 days later they can then prescribe an targeted antibiotic after receiving the blood tests.
Here is from the horses mouth: "What we have said is that with about 400 customers AND the following microbiology tests (respiratory virus, gram positive, c difficile, enteric panel and gram negative) the average customer could do as much as $280k per year with us in disposable test cartridge revenue. We have said we need somewhere between $75-80 million to reach breakeven which equates to about 400 customers doing about $200k per year…not all of our microbiology tests, but most. We have also publicly stated that our projections show us reaching that 400 customer level around Q2 next year and while we cannot predict the FDA clearance timing of any test, we feel good about having all of these test in the market by that time. That would say we have all the tools we need to get to breakeven, but it will take us some time to get all the installed base of customers (at that time) up on all these tests. Of course, as revenue increases we would expect the negative cash flow to begin to abate. "
ME: Ok thanks. So the additional recurring revs would come from gram positive, gram neg, and c diff right? What are you projecting for each of those potential FDA clearances?
"Yes. We are not projecting the times of those clearances, but have indicated that we believe c difficile will get into the FDA in Q3 of this year and the enteric panel into the FDA around the end of the year/early next year. Gram negative will be CE marked for Europe around the end of the year (greater market in Europe than US) and will go to the FDA sometime early next year. Since each of these test panels carries a number of relatively rare infectious agents, the time for clinical trials is a significant unknown."
Me: So of those three then can I assume that gram positive is the biggest potential revenue stream from tests?
"Actually each is listed with its contribution on a slide on the website. You could take a look at that and see how they all stack up. Gram positive is about the same as the others, but it is the door opener because of the severity of sepsis."
My take is this will be a $1 Billion + company within 2 years. Assuming they do another equity raise and increase shares 33%, that means they will have 58 Million shares. a $1 Billion valuation will be equal to a $17 to $18 stock price.
NSPH - I see there's an open gap up, presumably due to a material change. Such gaps sometimes never fill, although I've noticed they seem to eventually. It could take a very long time though, and the stock could go on a nice run meanwhile.
2nd - I don't know the answer to that question but having the data on hand from a blood test result while the patient is still at the hospital would allow them to make an accurate assessment of the patient's condition on the spot as opposed to guessing and jacking the patient up with unneeded drugs/antibiotics. I would have to assume it greatly reduces the odds of litigation risk as well.
They have a good sales pitch. The ability to avoid using 'empiric' therapy and move directly to an effective antibiotic would certainly result in savings to a hospital. Once the organism is identified, however, I'm assuming it would still take the usual amount of time to determine sensitivity/susceptibility to a panel of antibiotics?
Gram stain results can be obtained almost immediately, which let's say identifies the organism as gram-positive. A look under the microscope can then further narrow it down to gram-positive cocci. A day or two later it can be ID'd as Staph aureus. Another 24 hours to determine susceptibility, so that MRSA is ruled out. The hospitalist can then discontinue Vancomycin and switch to an antibiotic less likely to contribute to multi-drug resistance in the facility, and probably less costly to monitor. If Verigene is able to compress the time frame to a matter of hours, and in addition finance the purchase of the technology, then it's a compelling story.
Part of the current 'confusion' for traders is reflected in the unlikely assortment of bed partners right now:
(a) Doug 'Contrarian' Kass has turned negative. (b) Landry 'TFM' is negative. (c) Hussman remains negative. (d) Mark 'Another contrarian' Hulbert has been printing alternately positive and negative indicators. (e) sentimenTrader also points out both positive and negative signals.
"GMO - Appears to be going nowhere, I think the mine does gets built, a few more hurdles but the stars seem to be aligning."
CP -- they were supposed to have a major court decision this summer about the Eureka appeal of the state engineer's decision. Has that decision been made?
David - Regional judge Papazamboni (something like that, don't recall his name exactly) sided with the state engineer's decision, this is what seems to have renewed interest. GMO has order their truck, apparently.
The county acknowledges that GMO has legal authority but plans to escalate to state supreme court. Of course ther are other i's to dot and t's to cross concerning the EPA and BLM, but the BLM isn't in the habit of stopping mining activity in this region. My assessment is EPA could be the boogie man. Here's the latest and greatest result from the special county meeting:
I see that MUX and AUMN switched places now: MUX is now trading it its December 2011 resistance level ($3.00), while AUMN dropped back below its December 2011 resistance of $5.xx. So I decided to make a lateral move from one into another: sold at $0.90 30 contracts of January $2.50 MUX calls (for which my average cost of $0.85) and placed a buy limit order for 14 January $2.50 AUMN calls at $2.00.
Another reason for doing that was the fact that MUX received their previous quarterly dividend of $10M from their mine in Argentina in February, and they haven't announced anything since then. Quarterly payments are supposed to come once every 3 months, right? I am beginning to suspect that the Argentinian government threw another wrench at them...
I just talked to the investor relations about it, and I was told that they will disclose something about it in their next quarterly statement in the first week of August. If it was something simple and positive, they would have done a press release about it, right? After all, they made a press release about *problems* with getting payments out of Argentina a few months ago. As such, I suspect they will disclose another regulatory hiccup with getting these payments, and without them they will have a hard time with financing Phase 2 expansion at El Galo in Mexico...
Guys the move in FSLR today is not a joke. It's real. The bottom is in. Much like the big spike higher in Nat Gas on 6/14 after it tried to retest the old lows.
The current GMO presentation states: "Nevada State District Court affirmed the State Engineer’s ruling in all respects June 14, 2012"
So I suppose that risk is out of the picture, and GMO is a clear buy right now. Also, their presentation shows that $14/lb is the marginal cost of the Chinese production of Moly, so the price can only move up from here.
Shorts may be getting too aggressive setting up for a rally:
Short Sales On NYSE Top 2011 Peak As September Bets Lost 21% http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-16/short-sales-on-nyse-top-2011-peak-as-september-bets-lost-21-1-.html
The 1-month chart of AUMN shows that the current $4.20 level is a strong support, which seems to be holding so far. So I just raised my buy limit for January $2.50 calls on AUMN to $2.15 and purchased 13 of such calls (using the money I got from selling MUX $2.50 calls).
BTU also had a nice rally over the past couple of hours, which has the same shape as the FSLR rally (although started from a morning weakness in BTU) -- I wonder what happened in these sectors? Is it some optimism about China, since both BTU and FSLR have a large exposure to it?
FSLR is at resistance from early July. Friday was the day to buy, unfortunately wasn't watching but wouldn't have bought anyway probably. A revisit to $12 maybe but I'm not hot on solar, just can't see where it's gonna be much of a solution.
Natty is the energy source I'm thinking of, can't imagine how it's collected(from so many different "pockets") and delivered to point of use.
GMO - Caterpillar Trucks plural, in the teens, like 15 or 18 of them. Details of contract concerning delivery schedule and financing are unknown to me.
3D Printing is not just with plastic. It's with metals too: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6Px6RSL9Ac&feature=player_embedded
They use a metal powder. In this case it is stainless steel. But even a plastic part can be made to be very strong. They use plastic powder with a resin binder. It becomes a composite material.
SUS huh, good to know that's a very nice trick... I guess it takes quite a bit of heat to fuse the particles together, and an inert atmosphere (Ar?) to exclude the nasties.
Chart is iffy to be sure. Fundamentals mediocre on price but they are very close to debt free. The company is closely tied to Aerospace. Not for me now even though that was my field.
Aerospace will be reluctant to go with additive manufacturing without a long range testing process to insure structural equivalence, including metal fatigue testing which takes time.
what do you guys think is the impact on GOOG? i see that it was down a couple of $$. I don't think anyone makes that big of an impact on YHOO; however, it's dirt cheap.
I use Yahoo (old habit) but do not hold the stock. Use Finviz more for a rough tech chart and news. But what do I know? Almost nothing based on my present balance sheet. It's a tough market.
There is a lot of value in YHOO's Asian holdings, but whether she is the one to extract this value or not is hard to say. They say she is a product person, which is great for the longer term at Yahoo, but the quick win is in financial engineering.
Tones of good charts, but the first one nicely shows the growing gap between earnings estimates and stock valuations.
Also, if you look at the longer term charts, the market is essentially flat (with a bunch of interim volatility) for the last year and a half. Hard to find anyone who thinks things are getting better, so stock valuations reflect a flat to slightly down economy.
At some point, either the economy deteriorates further and stocks fall as earnings fall or it starts to gets better and we get some P/E expansion as well as improved earnings and stocks zoom up. What I don't think we see is a lot of P/E compression if the economy gets worse as this scenario is priced in.
Cramer - Happened to catch Cramer's last night, he was making the case that yesterday's consumer spending report doesn't match up with corporate reports, such as the banks which have been reporting good numbers in their mortgage businesses.
Mark, you didn't miss anything...well, other than the media telling us europe is going to implode, china is crashing, ben bernanke is printing our currency into oblivion, and mitt romney finally came clean:
I'm watching this one closely to see if I should add. I have a small position from a couple of days ago at around $10.6 I think. The thing that scares me in a way, to be honest, is why is STM a big player in gyros yet its stock is stuck?
i'm trying to figure out if i should buy a little GOOG before earnings or just hope that they sell it off after. i like the timing of this mayer thing because i honestly think they could spread rumors about people wanting to leave google because there is no growth ahead for it and thus cause the stock to languish. and then they beat earnings but sell it off...
Mark: what are your thoughts on FIO? my old boss has all of his money (i think like 65k shares) in the stock from around $21.50...he's a big believer in it. i can't get over the feeling that because it's hardware it can be commoditized.
CP - I'm just thinking more in terms of longer term value with GOOG. in this case I'm only thinking about fundamental value and not bothering with technicals. it's more a function of what i see them doing with the parts of their business as it impacts my own business.
alright screw it....added final piece of INVN at $10.3...avg is $10.4. it's a momo stock that is down over 50%. chart set up looks excellent. stop out is low risk (close below $9.8) barring unforeseen news event. and maybe i'll get lucky and the Lebed crowd will pump it again.
David- Where do you get your info on PNPFF?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.pinetreecapital.com/
DeleteI think you guys have mentioned some of these stocks
ReplyDeleteDDD
SSYS
ONVO
PRLB
ADSK
DASTY
FYI, I'm not a member of his website but I have read his books.
Article by Dr. Alexander Elder at Spike Trade
AM: investing in the coming bull market (stock review)
http://networkedblogs.com/zIEnR
"Additive manufacturing companies are moving into the stock market. Going public allows them to raise capital and gain credibility which will improve their access to capital markets. Let’s review several stocks that we’re tracking right now.
Why am I so interested in AM stocks?
I’ve always had a feel for ‘the next big thing.’ I was one of the first people to buy a personal computer, an old Apple. I was early on the internet (where I got my short address of elder.com). In 1996 I wrote a book Rubles to Dollars, calling for a boom and recommending ADRs of Russian stocks (the Russian index rallied from below 100 in that year to over 2,000 within ten years). This is just a partial list, but my point is – I recognize big social trends in their early stages. Let me add that I have no special pride about having this ability – it’s not something I cultivated, it’s a given, like eye color. Additive manufacturing is not my first find, but it is the latest and very exciting.
First, let me spell out the basic principle of my campaign for investing in AM stocks. In the words of Lou Taylor, my great late friend to whom Trading for a Living is dedicated, “a man who has his principles and lives by them is strong. A man without principles goes chasing random opportunities and always loses in the end.” Coming from this background, my principle of buying into AM is this:
“Buy early, add on pullbacks, and hold for many years.”
This is why, as we turn to specific stocks, I remind you that these are not trading recommendations. This is a very long-term approach. Think of buying AAPL at $20 a share and holding it for many years – that’s what we want to do in AM. I claim no special ability for picking the winner among all AM stocks. That’s why I suggest diversifying your AM investments.
At this point I have four stocks on my main AM list and two on the auxiliary list.
DDD and SSYS are the granddaddies of this young industry. We reviewed them in an earlier post.
ONVO is a bright new star – a bio-printer company which we also reviewed in a recent post.
PRLB is a 3D prototyping company whose shares were listed in 2012.
In addition, I keep an eye on these two companies:
ADSK is a granddaddy of CAD/CAM (computer aided design and manufacturing). This company is actively involved in programming for 3D printing, which seems like a natural fit for them, but it is too early to see any meaningful impact on their earnings.
DASTY is a an ADR for a French company Dassault Systemes SA. It is involved in 3D design as well as educational services, but at the time of this writing, its trading volume is very thin, under 10,000 shares/day
Remember, we track AM in two areas. The general concepts, principles, and ideas are posted in this blog. We reserve specific stock reviews for the Members’ section of SpikeTrade.com"
I like PRLB
DeleteHere is a cool video on 3d printing:
Deletehttp://networkedblogs.com/zIEnR
I've officially changed my opinion on this whole segment. I like it.
DDD looks like its trying to give a buy signal. I would prefer to see it break above the 10 day MA first though.
ReplyDeleteFunny stuff:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ep-ayHwb60k
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wilbur-ross-says-u-coal-012805491.html
ReplyDeleteWilbur Ross Says U.S. Coal Is Facing Years of Headwinds
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/wilbur-ross-says-u-coal-012805491.html
I kind of agree with him. BTU is prob the best suited for weathering this as they have a huge business in Aussie but I have come to the conclusion that it's probably best to avoid coal stocks.
Actually this video of 3d printing is even cooler:
ReplyDeletehttp://networkedblogs.com/zIEnR
although the first two questions that come to mind are:
(1) how long does it take?
(2) how much does it cost vs going online and buying the product?
i understand the uniqueness of it though...you can make anything you want.
Am I wrong or is it really is just a plastic model of anything you want?
DeleteI think this device is quite useful for making a prototype parts and objects.
DeleteSize is obviously limited (can't make an Boeing 999 Superplasticliner).
Material type is limited (Can't make a functional catalytic converter).
Still though, as a learning tool(modeling) and as a prototyping device it's got plenty of potential and should succeed in spades, IMO
1) How long does it take? - I don't think it's too terribly long (reasonable, less time than you might anticipate).
Delete2) You can't buy the product online, you're desiging it nad making a prototype(perhaps a finished product depending on what's wanted, a plastic model car could be mass produced iby injection molding much cheaper and faster. Don't expect this device to crank out just any product, can't make a functional house key with it, a plastic screwdriver won't drive a wood screw.
INVN - I lowered my $10.20 bid considerably just to give this thing a little breathing room, not in such a hurry for catching knives lately(slow reflexes).
ReplyDeleteHDSN - Earnings July 30, perhaps the peanut gallery's getting a little nervous?
ReplyDeleteDECK - Seems like stiff resistance somewhere around $47 for this one.
ReplyDeleteBODY - Not doing anything, might revisit lows?
ReplyDeletePAL - Must've been too oversold.
ReplyDeleteAre the indexes selling off prior to breaking out to new highs by Friday? If I believed that, I would be buying in now.
ReplyDeleteI happen to believe they may in fact break out to new highs by Friday. But that's not the same as saying I believe they will.
A breakout wouldn't surprise me. Prices can't go but so high, shouldn't we short new highs?
Deleteman...i've been getting quite a bit of good info from investor relations on NSPH. i'd recommend checking this company out fellas. i'm currently about 10 or 12% underwater and usually i would get the hell out but i'm looking to add more. i'll share the info after i'm done with my questions with them.
ReplyDeleteThe way it trades is really strange.
DeleteI'd say someone was trying to run stops, if I didn't know better.
DeleteINVN - Friday's unresolved up bar covered, now let's see what happens...
ReplyDeleteTBT...and the beat goes on...
ReplyDeleteSure does, more of the same old thing different day...
DeleteYep offed TBF
DeleteSharing an email response from a local realtor friend:
ReplyDeleteI have been very busy with work for the market is heated once again. For some reason, the market turned very quickly in March and has been non-stop since.
------------- is a short sale and has been on the market since April, 2011. The current status is “pending–do-not-show”, indicating that they are ready to close soon. It started at $xxxxxx+ and had fallen out of escrow a couple of times. The main reason is that the buyers were tired of waiting for the lender’s approval on the sale, so they walked. This is very common in short sale transactions. The lenders have all the time and the buyers don’t.
The overall inventory is low everywhere. San ------ has only 23 single family homes on the market for sale at the current time. Prices are on the rise and multiple offers are happening like 2004-2006. The difference now is the abundance of cash buyers, foreign and local. In the lower range, like $400,000 and below, the cash buyers are investors.
Rents are soaring in general and rental supply is low. A home in the same neighborhood on ----- Drive, (remodeled, 3 BR, 1300 square feet) rented in March for $2800. There is very little for rent now. Investors, like you, are competing with occupant-buyers in this market due to high rents and low interest rates.
This is why the home builders and regionals have been on fire. BAC is a very cheap stock here given how much exposure they have to the US home market.
DeleteLike I said, renting is way more expensive than buying in San Diego if you're more than 2 miles from the beach.
If it's mainly HFTs trading these days, then they appear to be taking BAC up prior to earnings.
ReplyDeleteSQNM - Speaking of stops, just placed an order for this one at $3.42 in case a stop raid occurs.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Appears to be going nowhere, I think the mine does gets built, a few more hurdles but the stars seem to be aligning.
The biz model on NSPH is really unbelievable. This is basically the same biz model as ISRG. Right now investors are focused on cash flow needs over the short term which is looking ugly but it is a big mistake in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteThe model is simple: they have this Verigene testing device that I think costs around $50k (not sure) to hospitals. NSPH finances the majority of them so the revs they get from each customer placement is low. The device performs a variety of tests from flue testing to blood testing and more. It can turn around tests in some instances right away and with the blood testing within 2 hours (vs 2-3 days currently). In addition to this they can test for a variety of infections at the same time, which with the blood tests is crucial when someone comes in with an infection and needs a targeted antibiotic for that infection immediately. Normally the doctor prescribes a broad antibiotic or a variety of them in hopes of solving the problem. 2-3 days later they can then prescribe an targeted antibiotic after receiving the blood tests.
Here is from the horses mouth:
"What we have said is that with about 400 customers AND the following microbiology tests (respiratory virus, gram positive, c difficile, enteric panel and gram negative) the average customer could do as much as $280k per year with us in disposable test cartridge revenue. We have said we need somewhere between $75-80 million to reach breakeven which equates to about 400 customers doing about $200k per year…not all of our microbiology tests, but most. We have also publicly stated that our projections show us reaching that 400 customer level around Q2 next year and while we cannot predict the FDA clearance timing of any test, we feel good about having all of these test in the market by that time. That would say we have all the tools we need to get to breakeven, but it will take us some time to get all the installed base of customers (at that time) up on all these tests. Of course, as revenue increases we would expect the negative cash flow to begin to abate. "
ME: Ok thanks. So the additional recurring revs would come from gram positive, gram neg, and c diff right? What are you projecting for each of those potential FDA clearances?
"Yes. We are not projecting the times of those clearances, but have indicated that we believe c difficile will get into the FDA in Q3 of this year and the enteric panel into the FDA around the end of the year/early next year. Gram negative will be CE marked for Europe around the end of the year (greater market in Europe than US) and will go to the FDA sometime early next year. Since each of these test panels carries a number of relatively rare infectious agents, the time for clinical trials is a significant unknown."
Me: So of those three then can I assume that gram positive is the biggest potential revenue stream from tests?
"Actually each is listed with its contribution on a slide on the website. You could take a look at that and see how they all stack up. Gram positive is about the same as the others, but it is the door opener because of the severity of sepsis."
My take is this will be a $1 Billion + company within 2 years. Assuming they do another equity raise and increase shares 33%, that means they will have 58 Million shares. a $1 Billion valuation will be equal to a $17 to $18 stock price.
DeleteNSPH - I see there's an open gap up, presumably due to a material change. Such gaps sometimes never fill, although I've noticed they seem to eventually. It could take a very long time though, and the stock could go on a nice run meanwhile.
Delete2nd - I don't know the answer to that question but having the data on hand from a blood test result while the patient is still at the hospital would allow them to make an accurate assessment of the patient's condition on the spot as opposed to guessing and jacking the patient up with unneeded drugs/antibiotics. I would have to assume it greatly reduces the odds of litigation risk as well.
DeleteThey have a good sales pitch. The ability to avoid using 'empiric' therapy and move directly to an effective antibiotic would certainly result in savings to a hospital. Once the organism is identified, however, I'm assuming it would still take the usual amount of time to determine sensitivity/susceptibility to a panel of antibiotics?
DeleteGram stain results can be obtained almost immediately, which let's say identifies the organism as gram-positive. A look under the microscope can then further narrow it down to gram-positive cocci. A day or two later it can be ID'd as Staph aureus. Another 24 hours to determine susceptibility, so that MRSA is ruled out. The hospitalist can then discontinue Vancomycin and switch to an antibiotic less likely to contribute to multi-drug resistance in the facility, and probably less costly to monitor. If Verigene is able to compress the time frame to a matter of hours, and in addition finance the purchase of the technology, then it's a compelling story.
2nd - That's exactly why I think NSPH is extremely undervalued. I honestly don't know why other companies like LMNX or CPHD wouldn't buy them out.
DeleteGE - $20 seems to be where this one gets sold.
ReplyDeleteREDF - Back under $4, where this stops nobody knows?
ReplyDeletePart of the current 'confusion' for traders is reflected in the unlikely assortment of bed partners right now:
ReplyDelete(a) Doug 'Contrarian' Kass has turned negative.
(b) Landry 'TFM' is negative.
(c) Hussman remains negative.
(d) Mark 'Another contrarian' Hulbert has been printing alternately positive and negative indicators.
(e) sentimenTrader also points out both positive and negative signals.
Net negative with equal weight, or 3 down and 2 to go?
DeleteWhen the landscape is this unclear, I'm inclined to stay out.
DeleteCome on in boys the water is fine:
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82_bhD0_Trw
I wouldn't rush in for anything less than certain salvation. O/w, I'd just end up with some nasty-smelling clothes for the next few days.
DeleteTC - Another new low everyday.
ReplyDeleteCheck out the insider transactions for the past six months. A lot of unhappy managers showing up at work each day.
DeleteAlso confusing is the divergence between foreign indexes and US indexes. Shanghai back to March 2009 lows, while the SPX remains near 3-year highs.
ReplyDeleteForeign indexes seriously need to get with the program!
DeleteI'm still trying to come up with a list of what I think are the 5 best investments for the next 5 years. So far GOOG and CAKE would be in my list.
ReplyDeleteRe GOOG, I would agree.
DeleteI'm planning on buying GOOG this week before earnings and after earnings.
DeleteWhen do they report?
Delete7/19. i'm hoping for a pre earnings dip and/or post earnings. prob won't get one since it has already dipped.
DeleteJJG - ZZoooooommmmmm!
ReplyDeleteWhat am I doing wrong Arnold?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vb2zl-F3S4U&feature=youtu.be
Mr. Californication himself! I'll try to resist firing off any day trades with the housekeeper around.
DeleteAnd don't forget the aaaguments wit da wife about the garage door and tings of dat natcha!
Deleteha. what's up CC...what are you trading now?
DeleteHZNP,PRKR,DDD,FGP
DeleteInteresting port found DDD, it's a pick.
"GMO - Appears to be going nowhere, I think the mine does gets built, a few more hurdles but the stars seem to be aligning."
ReplyDeleteCP -- they were supposed to have a major court decision this summer about the Eureka appeal of the state engineer's decision. Has that decision been made?
David - Regional judge Papazamboni (something like that, don't recall his name exactly) sided with the state engineer's decision, this is what seems to have renewed interest. GMO has order their truck, apparently.
DeleteThe county acknowledges that GMO has legal authority but plans to escalate to state supreme court. Of course ther are other i's to dot and t's to cross concerning the EPA and BLM, but the BLM isn't in the habit of stopping mining activity in this region. My assessment is EPA could be the boogie man. Here's the latest and greatest result from the special county meeting:
http://www.co.eureka.nv.us/comish/agendas/07-10-12%20Comm%20Agenda.pdf
I see that MUX and AUMN switched places now: MUX is now trading it its December 2011 resistance level ($3.00), while AUMN dropped back below its December 2011 resistance of $5.xx. So I decided to make a lateral move from one into another: sold at $0.90 30 contracts of January $2.50 MUX calls (for which my average cost of $0.85) and placed a buy limit order for 14 January $2.50 AUMN calls at $2.00.
ReplyDeleteAnother reason for doing that was the fact that MUX received their previous quarterly dividend of $10M from their mine in Argentina in February, and they haven't announced anything since then. Quarterly payments are supposed to come once every 3 months, right? I am beginning to suspect that the Argentinian government threw another wrench at them...
DeleteI just talked to the investor relations about it, and I was told that they will disclose something about it in their next quarterly statement in the first week of August. If it was something simple and positive, they would have done a press release about it, right? After all, they made a press release about *problems* with getting payments out of Argentina a few months ago. As such, I suspect they will disclose another regulatory hiccup with getting these payments, and without them they will have a hard time with financing Phase 2 expansion at El Galo in Mexico...
Delete"without them they will have a hard time"
DeleteThanks for thinking that through, sounds about right. Mux for 2 bucks!?!?!
Guys the move in FSLR today is not a joke. It's real. The bottom is in. Much like the big spike higher in Nat Gas on 6/14 after it tried to retest the old lows.
ReplyDeleteThe current GMO presentation states: "Nevada State District Court affirmed the State Engineer’s ruling in all respects June 14, 2012"
ReplyDeleteSo I suppose that risk is out of the picture, and GMO is a clear buy right now. Also, their presentation shows that $14/lb is the marginal cost of the Chinese production of Moly, so the price can only move up from here.
Shorts may be getting too aggressive setting up for a rally:
ReplyDeleteShort Sales On NYSE Top 2011 Peak As September Bets Lost 21%
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-16/short-sales-on-nyse-top-2011-peak-as-september-bets-lost-21-1-.html
The 1-month chart of AUMN shows that the current $4.20 level is a strong support, which seems to be holding so far. So I just raised my buy limit for January $2.50 calls on AUMN to $2.15 and purchased 13 of such calls (using the money I got from selling MUX $2.50 calls).
ReplyDeleteFSLR - BofAML Rating Buy
ReplyDeleteLast updated 04/18/2012
Morningstar
Last updated 05/15/2012
Buy
Standard Poor's
Last updated 10/25/2011
Sell
BTU also had a nice rally over the past couple of hours, which has the same shape as the FSLR rally (although started from a morning weakness in BTU) -- I wonder what happened in these sectors? Is it some optimism about China, since both BTU and FSLR have a large exposure to it?
ReplyDeleteP.U. stink bait!
DeleteIt is trading well from a technical perspective, and OBV has not cratered in comparison to price action.
FSLR - Insiders sold 99.5%
ReplyDeleteSWC - always hits daily peek price at 14:30
ReplyDeleteAlso, placed a buy limit order for 3000 more shares of PNPFF at $0.75 -- who knows, maybe I'll get lucky and buy some at that great price...
ReplyDeleteI honestly expected FSLR to go down to the high 12's or low 13s before bouncing hard. This move caught me and I'm sure plenty of others by surprise.
ReplyDeleteFSLR is at resistance from early July. Friday was the day to buy, unfortunately wasn't watching but wouldn't have bought anyway probably. A revisit to $12 maybe but I'm not hot on solar, just can't see where it's gonna be much of a solution.
DeleteNatty is the energy source I'm thinking of, can't imagine how it's collected(from so many different "pockets") and delivered to point of use.
GMO - Caterpillar Trucks plural, in the teens, like 15 or 18 of them. Details of contract concerning delivery schedule and financing are unknown to me.
ReplyDeleteGMO has displayed an uninspiring OBV though, while PAL's has been impressive.
DeleteFSLR - This chart suggests taking the plunge early June, when ADX hit 10(see RSI7 as well):
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FSLR&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p21228508012
OBV sucks the big high hard weenie though, IMO
My lateral move from MUX calls into AUMN calls is working so far. :)
ReplyDeleteWHR - Looks like an inverse C&H on one year chart to me
ReplyDelete3D Printing is not just with plastic. It's with metals too: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6Px6RSL9Ac&feature=player_embedded
ReplyDeleteThey use a metal powder. In this case it is stainless steel. But even a plastic part can be made to be very strong. They use plastic powder with a resin binder. It becomes a composite material.
SUS huh, good to know that's a very nice trick... I guess it takes quite a bit of heat to fuse the particles together, and an inert atmosphere (Ar?) to exclude the nasties.
DeleteSpeaking of powdered metal parts, what's your take on the PCP chart? Looks rather iffy going forward, to me.
DeleteChart is iffy to be sure. Fundamentals mediocre on price but they are very close to debt free. The company is closely tied to Aerospace. Not for me now even though that was my field.
DeleteAerospace will be reluctant to go with additive manufacturing without a long range testing process to insure structural equivalence, including metal fatigue testing which takes time.
DeleteEjection seat - I'm still strapped in over here, but it's getting hot and stuffy in this cockpit!
ReplyDeleteLet's get this show on the road....
FB -8%?
ReplyDeleteYHOO announces a new CEO.
Considering positions in both.
The YHOO hire is kinda tempting.
DeleteAnd they report tomorrow AMC. Announce the hire to buffer crappy earnings?????
Deletewhat do you guys think is the impact on GOOG? i see that it was down a couple of $$. I don't think anyone makes that big of an impact on YHOO; however, it's dirt cheap.
DeleteI use Yahoo (old habit) but do not hold the stock. Use Finviz more for a rough tech chart and news. But what do I know? Almost nothing based on my present balance sheet. It's a tough market.
DeleteNo impact on GOOG. I hear she was getting passed over.
DeleteGOOG IS GOLD in my opinion. Thanks Team for the analysis. The company will grow and I consider it a plus in any port.
DeleteThere is a lot of value in YHOO's Asian holdings, but whether she is the one to extract this value or not is hard to say. They say she is a product person, which is great for the longer term at Yahoo, but the quick win is in financial engineering.
DeleteAPA - Although down, this one had a little extra volume in it's juice today.
ReplyDeleteNice report from factset at:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/earningsinsight/earningsinsight_7.13.12
Tones of good charts, but the first one nicely shows the growing gap between earnings estimates and stock valuations.
Also, if you look at the longer term charts, the market is essentially flat (with a bunch of interim volatility) for the last year and a half. Hard to find anyone who thinks things are getting better, so stock valuations reflect a flat to slightly down economy.
At some point, either the economy deteriorates further and stocks fall as earnings fall or it starts to gets better and we get some P/E expansion as well as improved earnings and stocks zoom up. What I don't think we see is a lot of P/E compression if the economy gets worse as this scenario is priced in.
Bidding NSPH @ 2.61. Seeing if I can get lucky in an opening plunge like the last few days.
ReplyDeleteWell, that didn't work.
DeleteIt's probably because of me Mark...I bought more at $2.76
Deletei'm just kidding by the way...i mean i did buy more at $2.76 but I only managed to get 1,390 more shares before it moved up.
DeleteThey must've changed tactics when they saw your bid! ;)
DeleteCramer - Happened to catch Cramer's last night, he was making the case that yesterday's consumer spending report doesn't match up with corporate reports, such as the banks which have been reporting good numbers in their mortgage businesses.
ReplyDeleteahhhh the old gap and crap at GOOG. i'm really hoping they spread fear about the whole mayer thing.
ReplyDeleteman they really don't like Chinese internet stocks.
ReplyDeleteVVUS.
ReplyDeleteSPY- Did I miss something? That was a sharp reversal.
ReplyDeleteMark, you didn't miss anything...well, other than the media telling us europe is going to implode, china is crashing, ben bernanke is printing our currency into oblivion, and mitt romney finally came clean:
Deletehttp://www.theonion.com/articles/romney-comes-clean-admits-he-made-32-trillion-in-2,28792/
The Onion is simply one of the best news sources there are!
DeleteSQNM - Seems like this one's putting in a lower high... I'm standing clear for a couple weeks if $4 doesn't show up soon.
ReplyDeleteMan, shoulda bought UCO last week!?!?!
INVN - $10 candle isn't covered completely, neither is the $9.85 candle from the 12th...
ReplyDeletehttp://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=invn&ty=c&ta=0&p=i15&s=l
I'm watching this one closely to see if I should add. I have a small position from a couple of days ago at around $10.6 I think. The thing that scares me in a way, to be honest, is why is STM a big player in gyros yet its stock is stuck?
DeleteNSPH: picked up another 2k shs at $2.7
ReplyDeleteWell, if stocks do tend to move in the direction of liquidity, my bid at 2.61 should get hit.
Deletei'm trying to figure out if i should buy a little GOOG before earnings or just hope that they sell it off after. i like the timing of this mayer thing because i honestly think they could spread rumors about people wanting to leave google because there is no growth ahead for it and thus cause the stock to languish. and then they beat earnings but sell it off...
ReplyDeleteGOOG - I notice the OBV has a negative slope and MADC seems to be putting in lower highs over the last 2 1/2 years.
DeleteBeginning to wonder if there's a pump and dump going on, too many folks positive?
Mark: what are your thoughts on FIO? my old boss has all of his money (i think like 65k shares) in the stock from around $21.50...he's a big believer in it. i can't get over the feeling that because it's hardware it can be commoditized.
ReplyDeleteLet me check with JB again.
DeleteGOOG - Why has OBV been trending down for 2 1/2 years?
ReplyDeleteLower highs for MACD?
CP - I'm just thinking more in terms of longer term value with GOOG. in this case I'm only thinking about fundamental value and not bothering with technicals. it's more a function of what i see them doing with the parts of their business as it impacts my own business.
DeleteSQNM - Has a downward sloped resistance line going back to beginning of May...
ReplyDeleteWonder how important this line is, I bet I'm not the only one to notice it...
Adding some more NSPH.
ReplyDeletei added a little more INVN only because i think the chart looks set to go higher. more at 10.2
ReplyDeletestop is close below $9.8.
DeleteSwitch to new post, please.
ReplyDeleteso FSLR was a fakeout yesterday...wow. maybe they will bring it down to $12/13.
ReplyDeleteGOOG - "they could spread rumors about people wanting to leave google because there is no growth ahead for it"
ReplyDeleteHow can a company with their cash level not be planning on a little something? I don't think I'd be looking to leave...
I'd conclude Bernanke didn't commit to additional easing, assuming he's speaking now.
ReplyDeleteConsidering the wave of positive mortgage business feedback we're receiving, how could he?
WTF...I bought 1k more of INVN and they run it $0.10?
ReplyDeletealright screw it....added final piece of INVN at $10.3...avg is $10.4. it's a momo stock that is down over 50%. chart set up looks excellent. stop out is low risk (close below $9.8) barring unforeseen news event. and maybe i'll get lucky and the Lebed crowd will pump it again.
Deleteif i could just buy something that goes up immediately after i buy it that would be greaaaat...okkkkkkk? thannnnks.
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjJCdCXFslY
No wonder it ran!
DeleteWe moved to 2nd's new page for the day.
All sharp drops in SLV are getting bought over the past month. Big Boys are building up positions for the next leg up...
ReplyDelete