A Diamond in the Rough Low P/B multiple suggests “deep value” opportunity We favor LNC as a deep value play in our U.S. Life coverage, given 1) its disciplined growth strategy through its industry leading distribution; and 2) its capital management flexibility. Interest rate concern by investors likely overplayed Although low interest rate remains a key risk for LNC, we estimate that its current valuation discount to its 2012E ROE implies an overly onerous $(3.9)B reserve build, in contrast to the $(0.7)-(0.8)B reduction in its capital margin implied by LNC under a stress case scenario that has the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 1.5%/1.75%/2% in ‘12/‘13/‘14, respectively. We argue that any potential reserve build would be much lower and a few years away, allowing LNC to generate capital in the meantime to offset the potential impact. Positioned for accretive capital management despite low interest rates We argue that LNC’s industry-best 500%+ RBC level (or $1.5B capital margin above a 400% RBC) positions it well to weather volatile macro headwinds. Given its low P/B multiple, LNC can engage in aggressive and highly accretive share repurchases. We think continued capital redeployment should eventually ease investors’ concern over interest rate risk and reserve adequacy. Valuation: Initiating with a Buy rating; Price target of $29 Our $29 price target is based on an equal-weighted approach using a) regression of forecasted ROE / cost of equity vs. P/B and b) a P/E target relative to the S&P 500 of 50%.
Will Charlie Brown Ever Get to Kick the Ball? MET’s fundamentals are compelling, despite lack of capital management We believe investor concerns are largely around the timing and eventual size of capital return due to regulatory uncertainty. Although the lack of buyback is a near-term ROE drag, we argue that at 0.65x P/B and a current 11% ROE (and potentially to 12%+ longer-term), we find MET’s risk/reward compelling. Further, we argue MET’s long-term ROE guidance may prove conservative, providing a potential upside surprise. Attractive global growth opportunities through Alico Due to the Alico acquisition, MET is the only truly global play in our coverage universe. We expect its exposure to fast growing and high return emerging markets, which MET expects to grow to 20%+ of earnings by 2016 from 14% now, should lift the company’s overall ROE outlook over time. Lowering beta through business mix shift to drive better valuation We argue that as MET shifts its earnings mix towards global protection businesses, its beta should decline and lower its cost of equity. Compounding this dynamic with ROE improvement should lead to a higher valuation multiple, in our view. Valuation: Initiating with a Buy; Price target $43 Our price target of $43 is based on an equal-weighted approach using a) regression of forecasted ROE / cost of equity vs. P/B and b) a P/E target relative to the S&P 500 of 55%.
QCOM - Earnings AMC - Considering this one moved briefly out of the current pennant to the downside and the pennant is nearly complete, I'm thinking it breaks to the upside on the earnings.
I've been wondering how platinum would eventually return to it's normal price relationship with gold. Does this mean there's likely more dollar upside in store as well?
I'm not sure it's important to know anything about it, current route excuse was dilution in order to construct of all things, a gold mine. May as well shut 'er down in BK in typical fashion, put longs out of their misery so the big boys can own the shooting match exclusively.
however point and figure suggests a $0.50 price target on INVN...haha wtf: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=invn,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
We are hopefully starting to see some activity in this space. Presidential Life (PLFE) just announced it is being bought by an Apollo company (Leon Black). He is paying 72% of Book Value excluding OCI and is a distressed investment buyer, so sees good value at this level.
It is harder to apply these metrics to the larger lifeco's, but my favourite of the smallcaps, NWLI, has been moving up nicely since the beginning of June (up 17%) on on similar metrics would be valued closed to $300 versus current price of $147.
Sure thing BB. Yeah I bought NWLI on 6 JUN had a bid in for 1000 shares and sold a few days ago up 13.86%.
The dig, some person/computer filled me for "one" share. LOL, booked $20.
That aside the insurers do seem cheap based on UBS and what you point out, most likely good bets for the patience type willing to wait for value to be recognized by the mkt.
BB - you want a cheap stock? look at UUU. $16 Million cash, no debt, trades at $11 Million. Currently losing money but they are tethered in a way to housing.
"Brandt - "Gold is set for a dumping, going to $1260."
That's a total BS. Why would anyone discredit himself with such silly forecasts?
Until the 1-year support levels for gold and silver are broken, even technical analysis does not suggest a dump in gold. Even if the support is broken one day, that will most likely be a fake before a moonshot, because the current sentiment is in favor of a major rally rather than a major decline. We can't have a decline when there are almost no sellers left and a huge number of potential buyers are waiting for the rally to start before jumping in. Here is what Hulbert stated last week: "Intelligent bet remains on gold" (http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-07-13/commentary/32649963_1_gold-market-yellow-metal-average-gold). In addition to his sentiment index, I have also been posting that the spread between long and short unreportable positions in silver futures is at a record low, which in the past has always corresponded to major lows in silver (all major tops corresponded to huge spreads in favor of unreportable longs). Get serious, guys.
The hourly chart of $USD since July 13 is a beauty -- a series of very regular spikes making lower highs, as each spike was sold precisely back to its base. I think it is time for traders to stop probing the upside in $USD and start probing the downside...
Just out of curiosity, I checked out the spread between long&short nonreportable positions in gold futures and saw that the latest spread is 27000 contracts, while during the low of December 2011 the spread was 36000 contracts. This matches well with Hulbert's observation that the gold sentiment is at a decade low right now.
Yes, as reiterated endlessly for months on end, when they break...which will be soon...they will most certainly both break sharply and decisively higher.
I've noticed in my portfolio that when my holdings aren't participating in market upside events, they still typically participate in the downside. In fact, they often are leading during downside events.
yep...which makes this all the more wonderful since the market is nearing a short term peak. i was initially thinking we would get to 1,385 to 1,400 on this run up...
reasonable place to take a shot, but kinda of disinterested in the mkt except for a few trades. The mkt does look extended but has acted well.
per cashin
The whipsaw nature of Tuesday’s action took traders a bit by surprise, by taking out the prior day’s high and low (an outside day). For today, the napkins see S&P resistance at 1368/1372 then 1378/1381 and 1387/1390. Support looks like 1349/1353 then 1338/1342 and 1327/1330.
Could be breakout time if one believes in the presidential cycle. Valuations are supportive and good macro news, or even just no bad news, could be the catalyst:
One technical piece of information that supports this notion is the historical pattern of the last year of the four-year presidential cycle. So far, 2012 has followed the zigs and zags of the average fourth year with remarkable precision. The market hit a peak in April within a couple days of the average peak of similar years, and the low in June came within three days of the average low of the cycle.
Now virtually every poll, column, fund-flow report and survey of experts and the public, suggests that the market is on track to keel over in the summer just as it did last year and the year before. But that's not what the cycle calls for. The "script" of the fourth year, if you will, suggests that there will be a mild pullback in mid-July, and then a vertical lift higher in August before rolling over in September and sliding into the election, according to research by Bespoke Investment Group.
What's interesting, of course, is that if the market does creep higher in July with a lot of volatility, then many fund managers, and the public, will undoubtedly shy away from stocks in August. And then if the month does start out with a bang, and shoots higher, we could have a repeat of January in which short-covering and catch-up buying fuel a surprise rally for a month-and-a-half. Lots of ifs, but it's a forecast.
how do you know UUU? Looks interesting with their leverage to the recovering housing market, good valuation. The kind of hazy part is the Hong Kong joint venture. They say profits were down last year as the JV didn't sell as much to 3rd parties - how do you know if this is a short term blip or a longer term issue?
Thanks for pointing it out - I am intersted in investing in something to play the housing rebound in something that hasn't moved yet.
About a breakout here: I think it's entirely possible in part because no one expects it. What could trigger it? My best guess would be maybe a resolution to the fiscal cliff worries? Maybe strong earnings (remember that typically the crappier companies report first)?
In prior markets like 1982/1932/etc...the market would hold its ground despite really negative news and then it would burst higher probably when most people were bearish...
last year they did one with a 25% discount. This time around I'm assuming it gets done with a 10 to 15% discount only because they have the gram + clearance now and they have far more customer placements and are within a year of profitability. we shall see. i'll be in there buying more tomorrow if it gets to $2.3.
Finally, someone else who like stocks here - Leon Cooperman at the seeking alpha conference:
The veteran investing guru and chairman at Omega Advisors believes growth will continue at a modest pace, but stocks will climb because they're underpriced and supported by several factors.
Four reasons stand out: The unlikely chance of a recession and a corresponding bear market; supportive monetary policy from central banks; valuation, with Standard & Poor's 500 stocks trading at a historically low 12.5 price multiple against earnings; and investors' general willingness to take on risk.
"Stocks are cheap against inflation, they're cheap against their own history, they're cheap against interest rates, they're allowing for slower secular growth and they're allowing for lower interest rates,"
I like Cooperman, but he has been saying this for quite a while. He lost over -40% during the swoon years back like so many of his peers. But he is old school and I like that.
Since all spikes in $USD over the past 4 days have been sold, I suspect the triple bottom will not hold, and $USD will fall through it tomorrow (with all corresponding implications).
Mark - I'm actually thinking we might not get a chance tomorrow to buy NSPH at $2.3. I'm gonna put some bids in tonight around $2.4 in the hopes of getting filled, but I would have to imagine news of this financing was leaked and the stock was pressed lower over the past week because of this. The stock is down about 30% in the past week.
With the financing underway and guidance for being cash flow positive within a year, there's really nothing overhanging the stock now. My guess is they test the secondary price for a moment and then move it higher. I still think this has multi bagger written all over it.
I've seen that happen. It might even price at current levels w/warrants. I've even seen somethings price lower and open up the next day just for the fact it was over.
BTU -- a steady series of 4 "cups" with higher lows over the past 5 days. Today's "cup" was formed completely within "green" territory for the day. I say BTU beaks out tomorrow.
I hold this at a big % loss. Only 150 sh as I cashed out the other half at a much smaller loss last year. Lesson: Go all the way on stops or you might well regret it. It looks good at this price.
TOF - Notice the inverse H&S pattern target from the chart you posted happens to coincide nicely with the trendline.... hmmm...
ReplyDeleteyep
DeleteLNC per ubs
ReplyDeleteA Diamond in the Rough
Low P/B multiple suggests “deep value” opportunity We favor LNC as a deep value play in our U.S. Life coverage, given 1) its disciplined growth
strategy through its industry leading distribution; and 2) its capital management flexibility.
Interest rate concern by investors likely overplayed Although low interest rate remains a key risk for LNC, we estimate that its current valuation
discount to its 2012E ROE implies an overly onerous $(3.9)B reserve build, in contrast to the $(0.7)-(0.8)B reduction in its capital margin implied by
LNC under a stress case scenario that has the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 1.5%/1.75%/2% in ‘12/‘13/‘14, respectively. We argue that any potential
reserve build would be much lower and a few years away, allowing LNC to generate capital in the meantime to offset the potential impact.
Positioned for accretive capital management despite low interest rates We argue that LNC’s industry-best 500%+ RBC level (or $1.5B capital
margin above a 400% RBC) positions it well to weather volatile macro headwinds. Given its low P/B multiple, LNC can engage in aggressive and
highly accretive share repurchases. We think continued capital redeployment should eventually ease investors’ concern over interest rate risk and
reserve adequacy.
Valuation: Initiating with a Buy rating; Price target of $29 Our $29 price target is based on an equal-weighted approach using a) regression of
forecasted ROE / cost of equity vs. P/B and b) a P/E target relative to the S&P 500 of 50%.
MET per ubs
ReplyDeleteWill Charlie Brown Ever Get to Kick the Ball?
MET’s fundamentals are compelling, despite lack of capital management We believe investor concerns are largely around the timing and eventual
size of capital return due to regulatory uncertainty. Although the lack of buyback is a near-term ROE drag, we argue that at 0.65x P/B and a current
11% ROE (and potentially to 12%+ longer-term), we find MET’s risk/reward compelling. Further, we argue MET’s long-term ROE guidance may prove
conservative, providing a potential upside surprise.
Attractive global growth opportunities through Alico Due to the Alico acquisition, MET is the only truly global play in our coverage universe. We
expect its exposure to fast growing and high return emerging markets, which MET expects to grow to 20%+ of earnings by 2016 from 14% now, should
lift the company’s overall ROE outlook over time.
Lowering beta through business mix shift to drive better valuation We argue that as MET shifts its earnings mix towards global protection
businesses, its beta should decline and lower its cost of equity. Compounding this dynamic with ROE improvement should lead to a higher valuation
multiple, in our view.
Valuation: Initiating with a Buy; Price target $43 Our price target of $43 is based on an equal-weighted approach using a) regression of forecasted
ROE / cost of equity vs. P/B and b) a P/E target relative to the S&P 500 of 55%.
QCOM - Earnings AMC - Considering this one moved briefly out of the current pennant to the downside and the pennant is nearly complete, I'm thinking it breaks to the upside on the earnings.
ReplyDeleteLet's see if the theory holds...
Brandt - "Gold is set for a dumping, going to $1260."
ReplyDeleteI've been wondering how platinum would eventually return to it's normal price relationship with gold. Does this mean there's likely more dollar upside in store as well?
DeleteINVN - I see potential targets of $12+ and an uncovered candle at ~$8.80
ReplyDeleteI placed my bid at $8.80, can always chase I suppose.
MMR - Well go figure...
ReplyDeleteSQNM - Nice job sweeping stops first thing this morning...
ReplyDeleteTC - Where's my now low I'm so accustomed to???
ReplyDeleteHad pretty good volume yesterday. Maybe that's it. Do you know anything about them? It's trading like BK is around the corner.
DeleteI'm not sure it's important to know anything about it, current route excuse was dilution in order to construct of all things, a gold mine. May as well shut 'er down in BK in typical fashion, put longs out of their misery so the big boys can own the shooting match exclusively.
DeleteHEK?
ReplyDeletenice basing pattern...similar to INVN
DeleteStrange 250K volume bar today.
DeleteSo where's the daily bear raid?
DeleteNSPH 2.57 stinky.
ReplyDeleteit's a gap closin
DeleteThat's the idea.
DeleteI need to just assume that all gaps get filled and wait for it. No matter how strong the company it's gonna happen.
Delete"all gaps get filled and wait for it"
DeleteYep, pretty much I guess unfortunately. Call it waiting for the fat pitch? Uncovered bars often seem to retrace ~50% as well.
Meanwhile 99% of the remaining school of fish slip right through your fingers.
ha. Semis having a good day. perhaps a tradeable bottom is in. that will help INVN.
DeletePAL - Knife catchers get small reward, how does WS intend on making money when they're so unwilling to promote and foster bad trading habit?
ReplyDeleteDECK - The customary stop-sweep on this one minutes after open this morning as well.
ReplyDeleteShort 500 WNR @ 25.71.
ReplyDeleteSQNM - a 5% ($0.20) daily swing is just like a normal day walking down the avenue. Step off the curb and get flattened instantly by the city bus.
ReplyDeleteAmendment to 2nd's daily blog title: Downpour -> Downpoor.....
ReplyDeleteCatch you cats at the close.
ReplyDeleteDECK - Time must be nearing for the frog boil to be turned up another notch.
ReplyDeleteINTC, QCOM, SMH, STM TXN all ripping higher. Only a matter of time before INVN does too.
ReplyDeletehowever point and figure suggests a $0.50 price target on INVN...haha wtf:
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=invn,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
PNF is completely useless as far as I can tell.
DeleteT3d,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update on the lifeco's.
We are hopefully starting to see some activity in this space. Presidential Life (PLFE) just announced it is being bought by an Apollo company (Leon Black). He is paying 72% of Book Value excluding OCI and is a distressed investment buyer, so sees good value at this level.
It is harder to apply these metrics to the larger lifeco's, but my favourite of the smallcaps, NWLI, has been moving up nicely since the beginning of June (up 17%) on on similar metrics would be valued closed to $300 versus current price of $147.
Sure thing BB. Yeah I bought NWLI on 6 JUN had a bid in for 1000 shares and sold a few days ago up 13.86%.
DeleteThe dig, some person/computer filled me for "one" share. LOL, booked $20.
That aside the insurers do seem cheap based on UBS and what you point out, most likely good bets for the patience type willing to wait for value to be recognized by the mkt.
BB - you want a cheap stock? look at UUU. $16 Million cash, no debt, trades at $11 Million. Currently losing money but they are tethered in a way to housing.
ReplyDeletewhy do i get the sense that there is still a flush down in DECK coming before it moves higher?
ReplyDeleteUSG - Forward PE of 75 - Sure looks like forward predictions are useless indicators.
ReplyDelete"Brandt - "Gold is set for a dumping, going to $1260."
ReplyDeleteThat's a total BS. Why would anyone discredit himself with such silly forecasts?
Until the 1-year support levels for gold and silver are broken, even technical analysis does not suggest a dump in gold. Even if the support is broken one day, that will most likely be a fake before a moonshot, because the current sentiment is in favor of a major rally rather than a major decline. We can't have a decline when there are almost no sellers left and a huge number of potential buyers are waiting for the rally to start before jumping in. Here is what Hulbert stated last week: "Intelligent bet remains on gold" (http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-07-13/commentary/32649963_1_gold-market-yellow-metal-average-gold). In addition to his sentiment index, I have also been posting that the spread between long and short unreportable positions in silver futures is at a record low, which in the past has always corresponded to major lows in silver (all major tops corresponded to huge spreads in favor of unreportable longs). Get serious, guys.
To be fair, Brandt also presented the other technical side of the gold coin on his blog. ;)
DeleteThe hourly chart of $USD since July 13 is a beauty -- a series of very regular spikes making lower highs, as each spike was sold precisely back to its base. I think it is time for traders to stop probing the upside in $USD and start probing the downside...
ReplyDeleteHere is the chart: http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=h1
DeleteCovered WNR for $550 return.
ReplyDeletewent in heavy huh? you could also short NSPH and INVN. my picks are really cranking today!
Deleteanyone else see this:
http://news.yahoo.com/chick-fil-president-gay-marriage-inviting-god-judgment-154602388.html
freaking obama. what was he thinking being open minded? after all, gay people are the reason so much is wrong with this world.
I guess everyone already know that Chick-fil-a restaurants are closed always on Sundays for a reason.
DeleteJust out of curiosity, I checked out the spread between long&short nonreportable positions in gold futures and saw that the latest spread is 27000 contracts, while during the low of December 2011 the spread was 36000 contracts. This matches well with Hulbert's observation that the gold sentiment is at a decade low right now.
ReplyDeleteYes, as reiterated endlessly for months on end, when they break...which will be soon...they will most certainly both break sharply and decisively higher.
Deletehere comes my stop on INVN. this is turning out to be a splendid day.
ReplyDeleteI've noticed in my portfolio that when my holdings aren't participating in market upside events, they still typically participate in the downside. In fact, they often are leading during downside events.
Deleteyep...which makes this all the more wonderful since the market is nearing a short term peak. i was initially thinking we would get to 1,385 to 1,400 on this run up...
DeleteGOOG - Good article about Google. Comments are worth looking at too:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/728041-the-android-formula-winning-or-losing-for-google?source=email_the_daily_dispatch&ifp=0
CREE looks interesting chart wise.
ReplyDeleteYou guys know ROVI? Is that Angry Birds?
ReplyDeletenope...i thought the same thing initially a year ago when i was looking
DeleteI thought so. Man, they're getting wiped out.
DeleteGold - Perhaps it makes sense to watch for a euro:gold correlation breakdown as potential indicator of the coming reversal?
ReplyDeleteNSPH- I'm going to have to pull my bid. The overall market is really extended here and that's not the right time for ME to get long anything.
ReplyDeletefilling gap and 2.56 is 50% fib
Deletereasonable place to take a shot, but kinda of disinterested in the mkt except for a few trades. The mkt does look extended but has acted well.
per cashin
The whipsaw nature of Tuesday’s action took traders a bit by surprise, by taking out the prior
day’s high and low (an outside day). For today, the napkins see S&P resistance at 1368/1372 then 1378/1381 and
1387/1390. Support looks like 1349/1353 then 1338/1342 and 1327/1330.
Yep, if the market was just flat today I would have held my bid.
Deleteoffed AREX and MSFT
ReplyDeletetempted on TOT
Added a few more NSPH at $2.61/2
ReplyDeleteJCP - Even this island of profit centers is kicking up in price today, pulled back a little then ramped for a second time...
ReplyDeleteCould be breakout time if one believes in the presidential cycle. Valuations are supportive and good macro news, or even just no bad news, could be the catalyst:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/presidential-cycle-hints-at-summer-surprise-2012-07-05
One technical piece of information that supports this notion is the historical pattern of the last year of the four-year presidential cycle. So far, 2012 has followed the zigs and zags of the average fourth year with remarkable precision. The market hit a peak in April within a couple days of the average peak of similar years, and the low in June came within three days of the average low of the cycle.
Now virtually every poll, column, fund-flow report and survey of experts and the public, suggests that the market is on track to keel over in the summer just as it did last year and the year before. But that's not what the cycle calls for. The "script" of the fourth year, if you will, suggests that there will be a mild pullback in mid-July, and then a vertical lift higher in August before rolling over in September and sliding into the election, according to research by Bespoke Investment Group.
What's interesting, of course, is that if the market does creep higher in July with a lot of volatility, then many fund managers, and the public, will undoubtedly shy away from stocks in August. And then if the month does start out with a bang, and shoots higher, we could have a repeat of January in which short-covering and catch-up buying fuel a surprise rally for a month-and-a-half. Lots of ifs, but it's a forecast.
NSPH - Okay, I'll bid this thing at $1.75 and be the sole buyer.
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeletehow do you know UUU? Looks interesting with their leverage to the recovering housing market, good valuation. The kind of hazy part is the Hong Kong joint venture. They say profits were down last year as the JV didn't sell as much to 3rd parties - how do you know if this is a short term blip or a longer term issue?
Thanks for pointing it out - I am intersted in investing in something to play the housing rebound in something that hasn't moved yet.
I'm honestly not sure about the company as I haven't followed it in years. I used to follow it back in like 2004/5.
DeleteAbout a breakout here:
ReplyDeleteI think it's entirely possible in part because no one expects it. What could trigger it? My best guess would be maybe a resolution to the fiscal cliff worries? Maybe strong earnings (remember that typically the crappier companies report first)?
In prior markets like 1982/1932/etc...the market would hold its ground despite really negative news and then it would burst higher probably when most people were bearish...
NSPH = secondary...yeesh. although it's probably a good thing longer term.
ReplyDeleteOld shelf. Trying to find the terms, but looks like $100M.
DeleteDang, 2.33 is 61.8 FIB
Deletethe old shelf was for $100 MM but I believe they filled 2/3 of that???
Delete2/3...not sure. Still working. Have 2 bids in. One surprisingly close to T3D's fib. 2.30/2.17
Deletenot really any vol in it..are trades going through?
Deletewhat's the price?
DeleteI called. Wont price until tomorrow..Pre-open.
Deletelast year they did one with a 25% discount. This time around I'm assuming it gets done with a 10 to 15% discount only because they have the gram + clearance now and they have far more customer placements and are within a year of profitability. we shall see. i'll be in there buying more tomorrow if it gets to $2.3.
Deletekind of weird that the stock isn't down more after hours. i see 2.53 x 2.60.
DeleteBDL bottom for the ZOO. Reports tomorrow BMO.
ReplyDeletewow...double bottom to the penny
DeleteQCOM earnings should bode well for INVN.
ReplyDeleteTech exploded today
ReplyDeleteMSFT 0.87 30.53 + 30.59 2.93%
BRCM 2.26 31.61 - 31.86 7.64%
EMC 2.09 25.05 + 25.10 9.12%
INTC 1.01 26.30 + 26.35 3.98%
QCOM 4.78 59.11 - 59.22 8.78%
AAPL 0.81 607.75 - 607.95 0.13%
GOOG 7.27 583.03 - 584.84 1.26%
FIO 0.69 18.97 + 19.15 3.78%
NXPI 2.30 21.81 + 22.34 11.48%
NUAN 0.23 21.45 + 21.72 1.08%
tech leads this market...look at the moves after hours in QCOM, IBM, EBAY. this market is heading higher.
DeleteSWKS
Deletei'm gonna hold INVN through earnings, something i rarely ever do. i think the stock has priced in a lot here.
DeleteFinally, someone else who like stocks here - Leon Cooperman at the seeking alpha conference:
ReplyDeleteThe veteran investing guru and chairman at Omega Advisors believes growth will continue at a modest pace, but stocks will climb because they're underpriced and supported by several factors.
Four reasons stand out: The unlikely chance of a recession and a corresponding bear market; supportive monetary policy from central banks; valuation, with Standard & Poor's 500 stocks trading at a historically low 12.5 price multiple against earnings; and investors' general willingness to take on risk.
"Stocks are cheap against inflation, they're cheap against their own history, they're cheap against interest rates, they're allowing for slower secular growth and they're allowing for lower interest rates,"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48224762
I like Cooperman, but he has been saying this for quite a while. He lost over -40% during the swoon years back like so many of his peers. But he is old school and I like that.
DeleteHe likes MET, I know.
A triple bottom in $USD futures over the past 3 days (choose 10-min sampling and scroll the handle on the bottom all the way to the left):
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forexpros.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-advanced-chart
Since all spikes in $USD over the past 4 days have been sold, I suspect the triple bottom will not hold, and $USD will fall through it tomorrow (with all corresponding implications).
Mark - I'm actually thinking we might not get a chance tomorrow to buy NSPH at $2.3. I'm gonna put some bids in tonight around $2.4 in the hopes of getting filled, but I would have to imagine news of this financing was leaked and the stock was pressed lower over the past week because of this. The stock is down about 30% in the past week.
ReplyDeleteWith the financing underway and guidance for being cash flow positive within a year, there's really nothing overhanging the stock now. My guess is they test the secondary price for a moment and then move it higher. I still think this has multi bagger written all over it.
I've seen that happen. It might even price at current levels w/warrants. I've even seen somethings price lower and open up the next day just for the fact it was over.
DeleteBTU -- a steady series of 4 "cups" with higher lows over the past 5 days. Today's "cup" was formed completely within "green" territory for the day. I say BTU beaks out tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteNice little inverted H&S pattern to boot.
DeleteI hold this at a big % loss. Only 150 sh as I cashed out the other half at a much smaller loss last year. Lesson: Go all the way on stops or you might well regret it. It looks good at this price.
DeleteADM - Anybody like this one considering the current potential for crop impact from drought?
ReplyDeleteBOAML PO is currently $31, underperform with a 10.2 multiple EPS estimate of $3.05
Deletenew post
ReplyDelete