Periodically, over the past years, you were suggesting to us to put some stock away for a year and not even look at it. Now is the time to do it with gold and silver (naturally, using PHYS and PSLV so as to pay a long-term capital gain tax of 15%, rather than 28% for GLD and SLV).
Of course, a natural evolution of this train of thought should lead one to GDXJ or better yet AUMN, which will go up MUCH faster than gold/silver.
Just as I had predicted earlier today, $USD futures just broke below the triple bottom support level established over the past 3 days (with a corresponding rally in gold/silver).
Illini -- be careful with MUX. I wrote a couple of days ago about their delay with extracting payments from Argentina, when I switched from my MUX calls into AUMN calls.
my thinking is this is an excellent long term play. every once in a while i find a company that really peaks my interest and gets me to think longer term than just a week long trade. i'm currently down about 13% on my position on this and will be looking to add more tomorrow on any dip.
I can't shake the feeling that this is a CPHD in the making. it's a bit naive to think that just because it's in it's industry but they have:
*Several FDA clearances in the past 9 months *Customer placements of their testing machines per quarter are triple what they were last year…and this is before the blood test approval a couple of weeks ago which was a game changer. *Biz model is excellent…huge recurring rev base that goes higher and higher with each new test that gets clearance and with each new customer placement *Excellent mgmt and founder (Chad Mirkin - very well known chemist out of Northwester Univ) *Now they have enough cash for at least 2-3 years *Valuation is really low compared to other testing / diagnostic companies, especially CPHD which is about 25 times bigger. *Chart is setting up for a big move higher…the trading this past week seems completely tied to insider knowledge of the secondary coming.
Plus I've asked them directly about several different "competing" blood tests to determine if they're really competitors and they have pointed out flaws / differences in each of them that gives me some comfort. CPHD has tried numerous times to get the Gram positive blood test with FDA clearance like the one NSPH has but they haven't been successful for 5 years now. I think this one is a game changer. Not only does this return results in 2 hours (vs 2 days), but it tests for multiple infections, identifies drug resistance, and doesn't require a skilled technician to interpret test results.
I'm not normally into biotechs but this is more of a diagnostics company and just based on the momentum they have going in their business over the past year I don't think a $1 Billion valuation is a stretch within 12 to 24 months (6 to 8 times higher). They have many other drug tests awaiting FDA clearance or launches in Europe that will only add fuel to the fire over the coming 6-12 months.
Predictive Insiders Name Position Buyer / Seller Avg 6-Month Return Total Holdings Last Transaction Date SLEZAK, MARK Director Buyer +5.88% 2,274,096.00 06/15/12 MIRKIN, CHAD A. Director Buyer +25.75% 262,570.00 09/30/11 MOFFITT, WILLIAM P. Chief Executive Officer Buyer +17.75% 95,909.00 10/07/11 PATNO, TIMOTHY Chief Technology Officer Buyer +54.50% 50,000.00 02/24/12
Plus, this earnings season, good earnings give a bump; bad earnings are generally not resulting in big falls - shows people have over-priced negativity into stocks.
Mark - I think its an adequate amount. They projected in their pre-announcement on earnings with the SEC that they expect 380 customer placements by q2 2013. They have been saying that 400 is breakeven. With their current cash before the secondary they would have had enough cash flow to get there.
I've been busy this morning. Bought more at $2.48 to $2.55.
That's definitely not sounding good. they're claiming that the misrepresentations are damaging their company...that tells me that current clients maybe are trying to renegotiate? Not a pleasant thing to see if you're a shareholder.
There was an interesting note on SCHW earnings about a 'unidentified' vendor giving money back. I can't imagine that's MITK, but if it's the first thing I thought about...well...
you gotta remember that they have to give it the appearance that they didn't intentionally walk this down before the secondary. that's why i think there's a chance it goes to $2.5 again. there were plenty of people will knowledge that they were looking to do a placement. there's no way the stock gets stuffed down like it did after good news without knowledge of a secondary coming. it's a shady game but the big boys needed to get theirs before the stock could go higher.
I just turned on CNBC to see what the daytraders were saying and they had a guest on talking about health care and how it's in a big bull market. I was actually gonna post about this last night but was busy trying to figure out what to do with NSPH. anyway, take a look at the chart of biotechnology: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BTK+Interactive#symbol=^btk;range=5y;compare=;indicato r=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logsc ale=off;source=undefined;
Also here is a good article on biotechs from the end of last year: http://lifesciencedigest.com/2012/01/25/2011-review-and-outlook-for-biotechnology-in-2012/
I think we will see many stocks in the biotech area having 1999 tech like runs. In a few years lots of people will be looking back and kicking themselves for not getting in on the hysteria. We're already seeing some definite signs of it with ARNA and PCYC. This is just another reason why I like NSPH so much because the movement in a sector tends to play a much bigger factor in moving individuals stocks than anything else. Investors are dying for growth and since there isn't a ton out there, they're focusing on healthcare/biotech. I honestly don't think the masses have gotten into biotech yet but there is a revolution going on with the technological advances in the sector, with focus on improving health care to help boost our economy, and with loosening of the reigns at the FDA.
Nice earnings report. Stock up to $0.84 which is where it has topped out for the last year. Perhaps these numbers are enough to break it through to the upside.
Just bought 10 more contracts of AUMN January $2.50 calls, this time at $1.90. I got some margin buying power back after I received $15K from my 401K loan (apparently, they could only give me a loan in the amount of $50K minus the highest previous loan balance over the past year, and since I still had some old loan remaining from 2008, my net money inflow was only $15K), and now I can buy some more call options on margin once again. :)
NSPH, LH - Lab holdings was down 6% today, creating another gap to be filled, second one in 4 days. A Reuters article is negative on the labs going forward and I am wondering if that will hurt Nanosphere:
"Both companies said they were seeing growth slowing in their vitamin D tests, which had posted strong growth for some time. LabCorp also said its histology category, which studies cells and tissues, is seeing continued weakness.
As President Barack Obama's healthcare reform plan -- which aims to cut down on soaring healthcare costs while ensuring everyone has access to care -- gains traction, lab-testing companies like Quest and LabCorp are facing pressure from managed care providers to reduce testing costs."
"lab-testing companies like Quest and LabCorp are facing pressure from managed care providers to reduce testing costs"
My first reaction is this sounds like BS spin b/c cost reduction has always been the argument in favor of labcorp (saving money). I can think up an entire list of questions I'd want answers to concerning where cost increases have gone parabolic, yet I've never seen a comprehensive list. I hear doctors demand plenty of unnecessary testing, and perform unnecessary procedures, there's where I'd start. Oh, and whatever happened to the subject of bringing the industry into the modern automated electronic information age in terms of record keeping, that was supposedly the big expensive buga-bo, have they decided there's no savings and instead will stick with their antiquated manila folder system?
It's always whatever excuse creates fear and never the real news story.
"Oh, and whatever happened to the subject of bringing the industry into the modern automated electronic information age in terms of record keeping, ..."
It's alive and well here in Peoria. My doctor's clinic and the associated hospital started the rollover a year ago and it was successful, although one doctor retired early rather than endure the change. McKesson was the contractor (MCK).
Part of the advantage of NSPH's tests is they are so cheap at $46 a test. Testing for multiple infections / defects at one time with one sample for that price is not exactly a deal breaker in terms of cost.
While we are still on the topic of gold, remember how Soros called gold the “ultimate asset bubble” in January 2010?
Here is what I came across now:
"Soros Fund Management LLC, founded by the 81-year-old billionaire, more than tripled its investment in the SPDR Gold Trust in the first quarter to 319,550 shares now valued at $50.2 million, an SEC filing May 15 showed. It held as few as 42,800 shares last year."
"Gold is also being supported by secularly increasing demand. Prior to the financial crisis, gold was substantially under-owned relative to financial assets, and despite stepped-up purchases of gold by central banks and sovereign wealth funds, the shift toward greater holdings of the precious metal is still in its early stages…speculative gold positions had been significantly reduced [by the end of the quarter] and as a result are less likely to be a bearish short-term driver going forward."
"The recent deterioration in global financial conditions and growth rates will certainly be a headwind to top-line revenue growth, but companies still retain plenty of ability to protect their operating margins and profitability by keeping labor costs down (given labor market slack and labor market competition from emerging markets). Yet the markets are currently pricing in the worst real earnings growth rate in a 100 years. To further exemplify, the dividend yield of US non-financial corporations is higher than the yield on US Government notes, something that has only happened once in the past 50 years, during the peak of the 2008 credit crisis. And this is now occurring in an environment in which companies have abundant liquidity to cover their dividends."
On global bonds:
"The fat tail possibility that Europe's deleveraging will become disorderly must be considered a real possibility that would be significantly bullish for bonds. However, markets are now pricing in low growth and continued deleveraging for an extended period of time. This shift from pricing in a normal recovery to a deleveraging makes sense to us; however, what is priced in now suggests a low probability that even in 10 years much progress will have been made."
Bonds - TBT will have executed many reverse splits by the time 10 years has elapsed. Fixed income earners are already burning their life savings at a much higher rate than anticipated.
I bet reverse mortgages are the hot ticket these days.
The hot ticket for folks over 75 is foreclosure on an underwater "home equity" loan, according to an AARP report today on NPR. They are using the $ to live.
MUX , GORO Submitted by Illini (643 comments) on Thu, 07/19/2012 - 21:00 #111284 In-Play:
5:23PM Gold Resource reports Q2 production of ~14,500 ounces precious metal gold equivalent at a 60:1 price ratio, revises outlook lower by ~15% (GORO) 25.22 -0.26 : Co reported its preliminary production results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2012 of approximately 14,500 ounces precious metal gold equivalent (AuEq) at a 60:1 price ratio. The Company's second quarter production was lower than expected. Several factors contributed to the decrease including Arista underground mine infrastructure needs coupled with mining of lower grade zones of the deposit. As a result of the decrease in second quarter production, the Company revises its 2012 Outlook by ~15% to a targeted annual production range of 100,000 to 120,000 ounces AuEq, at an estimated 53:1 price ratio. This represents a decrease from its previous 2012 target of 120,000 to 140,000 AuEq. In addition, the Company said the ongoing development of the Arista mine will determine whether the Company's target of 200,000 ounce AuEq, at an estimated 53:1 price ratio, will be achieved in 2013 or 2014.
5:00PM McEwen Mining discovers additional gold at El Gallo Phase 1 production area (MUX) 3.00 +0.01 : Co announces exploration drill results from its 100% owned El Gallo Complex, in Sinaloa State, Mexico. Drilling has extended the known mineralized zones within the Phase 1 production area, where mine commissioning is underway (Fig. 1). The most impressive hole returned 1.1 gpt gold over 71.3 m, including 6.6 gpt gold over 4.9 m, which is believed to be the widest intersection of +1 gpt gold recorded at the property.
reply Bookmark this Ignore thread Re: MUX , GORO new Submitted by Illini (643 comments) on Thu, 07/19/2012 - 21:07 #111285 (in reply to #111284) Gold Resource Corp (GORO) -NYSE MKT 25.22 0.26(1.02%) 4:00PM EDT|After Hours: 23.24 1.98 (7.85%) 7:42PM EDT
sold my last NKE call yesterday at the close since NKE was bumping up against the 20 day and I just knew we would have a down day today.
That was my best trade for the year, too bad it was only 3 calls and not 33.
I like Jesse's chart on ANR. I could pick some of that up and not look at it for awhile.
Seems like we need to watch feeder cattle for a turn since all the farmers are selling them now. There should be a shortage in the future. Would that be COW? I can't see what COW's holdings are, maybe its just milk.
COW - I guess the day will come soon when it's time to get mad over COW, cattlemen are probably forced to cut their herds currently and beef may actually decrease first?
Finally! :)
ReplyDeletePeriodically, over the past years, you were suggesting to us to put some stock away for a year and not even look at it. Now is the time to do it with gold and silver (naturally, using PHYS and PSLV so as to pay a long-term capital gain tax of 15%, rather than 28% for GLD and SLV).
ReplyDeleteOf course, a natural evolution of this train of thought should lead one to GDXJ or better yet AUMN, which will go up MUCH faster than gold/silver.
Just so that you don't think I am nuts warning you about US being on the road to hyperinflation:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/ubs-issues-hyperinflation-warning-us-and-uk-calls-it-purely-fiscal-phenomenon
Just as I had predicted earlier today, $USD futures just broke below the triple bottom support level established over the past 3 days (with a corresponding rally in gold/silver).
ReplyDeleteDavid the avid, I agree and hold PHYS, RBY and MUX. I am not a happy camper at the present time.
ReplyDeleteIllini -- be careful with MUX. I wrote a couple of days ago about their delay with extracting payments from Argentina, when I switched from my MUX calls into AUMN calls.
DeleteCheck out the $USD futures chart sampled at 30 minutes (scroll the bottom handle all the way to the left):
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forexpros.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-advanced-chart
Looks very much like a rounded topping action since July 5...
83.56 level is an area of resistance.
DeleteI have a mental image of AUMN pps passing up SVM as an rough indicator.
DeletePAAS narrowly avoided a new low today.
HON - Might be some upside remaining in this one.
ReplyDeleteIt's well worth our while to be ready early for NSPH. Team has the lead on this one, but everything I've read is pretty strong.
ReplyDeleteWhat's the strategy, buy any opening dip or wait till afternoon?
DeleteI see no other gaps up other than the one from $2.59
Deletemy thinking is this is an excellent long term play. every once in a while i find a company that really peaks my interest and gets me to think longer term than just a week long trade. i'm currently down about 13% on my position on this and will be looking to add more tomorrow on any dip.
DeleteI can't shake the feeling that this is a CPHD in the making. it's a bit naive to think that just because it's in it's industry but they have:
*Several FDA clearances in the past 9 months
*Customer placements of their testing machines per quarter are triple what they were last year…and this is before the blood test approval a couple of weeks ago which was a game changer.
*Biz model is excellent…huge recurring rev base that goes higher and higher with each new test that gets clearance and with each new customer placement
*Excellent mgmt and founder (Chad Mirkin - very well known chemist out of Northwester Univ)
*Now they have enough cash for at least 2-3 years
*Valuation is really low compared to other testing / diagnostic companies, especially CPHD which is about 25 times bigger.
*Chart is setting up for a big move higher…the trading this past week seems completely tied to insider knowledge of the secondary coming.
Plus I've asked them directly about several different "competing" blood tests to determine if they're really competitors and they have pointed out flaws / differences in each of them that gives me some comfort. CPHD has tried numerous times to get the Gram positive blood test with FDA clearance like the one NSPH has but they haven't been successful for 5 years now. I think this one is a game changer. Not only does this return results in 2 hours (vs 2 days), but it tests for multiple infections, identifies drug resistance, and doesn't require a skilled technician to interpret test results.
I'm not normally into biotechs but this is more of a diagnostics company and just based on the momentum they have going in their business over the past year I don't think a $1 Billion valuation is a stretch within 12 to 24 months (6 to 8 times higher). They have many other drug tests awaiting FDA clearance or launches in Europe that will only add fuel to the fire over the coming 6-12 months.
http://wsw.com/webcast/jeff68/nsph/
DeleteHere's a good overview.
Predictive Insiders Name Position Buyer / Seller Avg 6-Month Return Total Holdings Last Transaction Date
DeleteSLEZAK, MARK Director Buyer +5.88% 2,274,096.00 06/15/12
MIRKIN, CHAD A. Director Buyer +25.75% 262,570.00 09/30/11
MOFFITT, WILLIAM P. Chief Executive Officer Buyer +17.75% 95,909.00 10/07/11
PATNO, TIMOTHY Chief Technology Officer Buyer +54.50% 50,000.00 02/24/12
Buy opening dip
DeleteGWW - Nice move today.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete$25M 2.40/share. I would have thought they would have raised more.
ReplyDeleteDCI - Upside remaining before upper trendline.
ReplyDeleteRemember, guys> you don't have to trade. Not trading can be an awesome strategy when you don't know WTF is going on.
ReplyDeleteAAII shows fewest bulls since the Jackson Hole low in August 2010
ReplyDeletehttp://yfrog.com/kgzpxg
Maybe we are poised for a short-term pullback here sinec we are up a lot in the last week, but longer term, this bodes well for higher markets.
Plus, this earnings season, good earnings give a bump; bad earnings are generally not resulting in big falls - shows people have over-priced negativity into stocks.
ReplyDeleteF - Has this one turned up?
ReplyDeleteMark - I think its an adequate amount. They projected in their pre-announcement on earnings with the SEC that they expect 380 customer placements by q2 2013. They have been saying that 400 is breakeven. With their current cash before the secondary they would have had enough cash flow to get there.
ReplyDeleteI've been busy this morning. Bought more at $2.48 to $2.55.
Unfortunately I didn't get filled on all of my shares but my position size is pretty big. Avg is now $2.9.
DeleteGWW - Gaped up yesterday from ~$190, thus I expect a close.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Volume is high, good or bad under the circumstances?
ReplyDeleteSeems good.
I think it's good.
DeleteMITK announces earnings date yesterday and now news it is expanding it's lawsuit with USAA. Man, that doesn't smell good.
ReplyDeleteThat's definitely not sounding good. they're claiming that the misrepresentations are damaging their company...that tells me that current clients maybe are trying to renegotiate? Not a pleasant thing to see if you're a shareholder.
DeleteThere was an interesting note on SCHW earnings about a 'unidentified' vendor giving money back. I can't imagine that's MITK, but if it's the first thing I thought about...well...
DeleteI doubt that would make a dent in SCHW earnings...at least enough to mention it.
DeleteI agree. My point is I thought about it.
Deleteyeah. that's some nasty trading in MITK man. retest of $2 is coming if our suspicion is correct.
DeleteNice move on NSPH, tof!
ReplyDelete2nd - Until I'm "over water" it won't be nice :) I consider this a longer term hold though.
DeleteI expect (hope) a retest of $2.5 in the coming days and then a moonshot higher. I will add the rest there if it happens.
DeleteHDSN - Perhaps the charging the particle accelerator created only a temporary CLFC shortage?
ReplyDeleteSWC - At least this one's not crashing again today, it's the only one I've got since getting stopped out of SQNM.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Okay, raised my bid to $2.62, from $1.76 I bet it gets crowded with buyers right there.
ReplyDeletePeeled off the INVN at $10.2...probably dumb but I'm keeping it in cash in the hopes of getting some NSPH down around $2.52 over the next few days.
ReplyDeleteAll right guys. Gotta scoot.
ReplyDeleteCOW - Finally seems to be joining the grains rally?
ReplyDeleteGot long CEF at 19.50
ReplyDeleteDropped WAG(+20%) and PDS (+10%) today.
Just back from the show, thought I would share a little something to keep an eye on....
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/RHNjjcEdGnP
That's vix/spy btw.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - I'm really surprised this thing isn't moving on up further, it sure would be great if it came back to me this afternoon! ;)
ReplyDeleteyou gotta remember that they have to give it the appearance that they didn't intentionally walk this down before the secondary. that's why i think there's a chance it goes to $2.5 again. there were plenty of people will knowledge that they were looking to do a placement. there's no way the stock gets stuffed down like it did after good news without knowledge of a secondary coming. it's a shady game but the big boys needed to get theirs before the stock could go higher.
DeleteYeah, may have to raise my bid a bit but I'll definitely be buying the long squeeze on this, tyvm.
DeleteI just turned on CNBC to see what the daytraders were saying and they had a guest on talking about health care and how it's in a big bull market. I was actually gonna post about this last night but was busy trying to figure out what to do with NSPH. anyway, take a look at the chart of biotechnology:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BTK+Interactive#symbol=^btk;range=5y;compare=;indicato r=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logsc ale=off;source=undefined;
Also here is a good article on biotechs from the end of last year:
http://lifesciencedigest.com/2012/01/25/2011-review-and-outlook-for-biotechnology-in-2012/
I think we will see many stocks in the biotech area having 1999 tech like runs. In a few years lots of people will be looking back and kicking themselves for not getting in on the hysteria. We're already seeing some definite signs of it with ARNA and PCYC. This is just another reason why I like NSPH so much because the movement in a sector tends to play a much bigger factor in moving individuals stocks than anything else. Investors are dying for growth and since there isn't a ton out there, they're focusing on healthcare/biotech. I honestly don't think the masses have gotten into biotech yet but there is a revolution going on with the technological advances in the sector, with focus on improving health care to help boost our economy, and with loosening of the reigns at the FDA.
BAC @ 7.29
ReplyDeleteAMNF really good earnings. Just a solid company at dirt cheap prices and pays a 6% dividend.
ReplyDeleteNice earnings report. Stock up to $0.84 which is where it has topped out for the last year. Perhaps these numbers are enough to break it through to the upside.
Deleteoffed NOG bumping up against 50 dma which has contained price since March.
ReplyDeleteJPM has just about given up all of it's gains off of earnings report.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 10 more contracts of AUMN January $2.50 calls, this time at $1.90. I got some margin buying power back after I received $15K from my 401K loan (apparently, they could only give me a loan in the amount of $50K minus the highest previous loan balance over the past year, and since I still had some old loan remaining from 2008, my net money inflow was only $15K), and now I can buy some more call options on margin once again. :)
ReplyDeleteStrange bar in F.
ReplyDeletePSDV - Action on this one very similar to NSPH today.
ReplyDeleteInteresting - Kass tweeting he is at his second highest short exposure for the year.
ReplyDeleteHe's always a fader, but obviously he doesn't believe we are breaking out.
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteMy friend is a great short (as in short SP futures) trader just sent this. He can change with the wind.
DeleteWe have sold most everything Except for 2 small Equity positions
We are shorting the S&P 500 Futures; we will add to it on a weaker close,
its time to get out... at least temporarily
revenues don't seem to be up much, even at IBM, which had a big move after the close yesterday
Market must be looking for QE3 to boost revenues and jobs, and we doubt that it will do that.
This sure is a rough game.
DeleteYou can certainly make the case we are due for at least a small pullback here. I just have really bad timing on picking them.
DeleteThe ZOO is taunting me...
ReplyDeleteNice numbers out of GOOG - maybe this is a buy and put away type stock - hard to see anyone knocking them off their perch.
ReplyDeleteyeah it's got a wide moat.
Deletehard to believe the shareholders actually thought the USAA lawsuit was good news for MITK but that's what my take away was this morning.
ReplyDeleteNSPH, LH - Lab holdings was down 6% today, creating another gap to be filled, second one in 4 days. A Reuters article is negative on the labs going forward and I am wondering if that will hurt Nanosphere:
ReplyDelete"Both companies said they were seeing growth slowing in their vitamin D tests, which had posted strong growth for some time. LabCorp also said its histology category, which studies cells and tissues, is seeing continued weakness.
As President Barack Obama's healthcare reform plan -- which aims to cut down on soaring healthcare costs while ensuring everyone has access to care -- gains traction, lab-testing companies like Quest and LabCorp are facing pressure from managed care providers to reduce testing costs."
"lab-testing companies like Quest and LabCorp are facing pressure from managed care providers to reduce testing costs"
DeleteMy first reaction is this sounds like BS spin b/c cost reduction has always been the argument in favor of labcorp (saving money). I can think up an entire list of questions I'd want answers to concerning where cost increases have gone parabolic, yet I've never seen a comprehensive list. I hear doctors demand plenty of unnecessary testing, and perform unnecessary procedures, there's where I'd start. Oh, and whatever happened to the subject of bringing the industry into the modern automated electronic information age in terms of record keeping, that was supposedly the big expensive buga-bo, have they decided there's no savings and instead will stick with their antiquated manila folder system?
It's always whatever excuse creates fear and never the real news story.
"Oh, and whatever happened to the subject of bringing the industry into the modern automated electronic information age in terms of record keeping, ..."
DeleteIt's alive and well here in Peoria. My doctor's clinic and the associated hospital started the rollover a year ago and it was successful, although one doctor retired early rather than endure the change. McKesson was the contractor (MCK).
Part of the advantage of NSPH's tests is they are so cheap at $46 a test. Testing for multiple infections / defects at one time with one sample for that price is not exactly a deal breaker in terms of cost.
DeleteWhile we are still on the topic of gold, remember how Soros called gold the “ultimate asset bubble” in January 2010?
ReplyDeleteHere is what I came across now:
"Soros Fund Management LLC, founded by the 81-year-old billionaire, more than tripled its investment in the SPDR Gold Trust in the first quarter to 319,550 shares now valued at $50.2 million, an SEC filing May 15 showed. It held as few as 42,800 shares last year."
Ray Dalio's Q2 Bridgewater Letter Is Out. Excerpts can be found at
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-q2-bridgewater-letter-2012-7#ixzz216yDv2rQ
and
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ray-dalios-bridgewater-self-re-inforcing-global-decline
Here is what he wrote on Gold:
"Gold is also being supported by secularly increasing demand. Prior to the financial crisis, gold was substantially under-owned relative to financial assets, and despite stepped-up purchases of gold by central banks and sovereign wealth funds, the shift toward greater holdings of the precious metal is still in its early stages…speculative gold positions had been significantly reduced [by the end of the quarter] and as a result are less likely to be a bearish short-term driver going forward."
Here is what he wrote on stocks and bonds:
DeleteOn stocks:
"The recent deterioration in global financial conditions and growth rates will certainly be a headwind to top-line revenue growth, but companies still retain plenty of ability to protect their operating margins and profitability by keeping labor costs down (given labor market slack and labor market competition from emerging markets). Yet the markets are currently pricing in the worst real earnings growth rate in a 100 years. To further exemplify, the dividend yield of US non-financial corporations is higher than the yield on US Government notes, something that has only happened once in the past 50 years, during the peak of the 2008 credit crisis. And this is now occurring in an environment in which companies have abundant liquidity to cover their dividends."
On global bonds:
"The fat tail possibility that Europe's deleveraging will become disorderly must be considered a real possibility that would be significantly bullish for bonds. However, markets are now pricing in low growth and continued deleveraging for an extended period of time. This shift from pricing in a normal recovery to a deleveraging makes sense to us; however, what is priced in now suggests a low probability that even in 10 years much progress will have been made."
Bonds - TBT will have executed many reverse splits by the time 10 years has elapsed. Fixed income earners are already burning their life savings at a much higher rate than anticipated.
DeleteI bet reverse mortgages are the hot ticket these days.
Thanks David. When Dalio talks, I listen.
DeleteThe hot ticket for folks over 75 is foreclosure on an underwater "home equity" loan, according to an AARP report today on NPR. They are using the $ to live.
DeleteMUX , GORO
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Illini (643 comments) on Thu, 07/19/2012 - 21:00 #111284
In-Play:
5:23PM Gold Resource reports Q2 production of ~14,500 ounces precious metal gold equivalent at a 60:1 price ratio, revises outlook lower by ~15% (GORO) 25.22 -0.26 : Co reported its preliminary production results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2012 of approximately 14,500 ounces precious metal gold equivalent (AuEq) at a 60:1 price ratio. The Company's second quarter production was lower than expected. Several factors contributed to the decrease including Arista underground mine infrastructure needs coupled with mining of lower grade zones of the deposit. As a result of the decrease in second quarter production, the Company revises its 2012 Outlook by ~15% to a targeted annual production range of 100,000 to 120,000 ounces AuEq, at an estimated 53:1 price ratio. This represents a decrease from its previous 2012 target of 120,000 to 140,000 AuEq. In addition, the Company said the ongoing development of the Arista mine will determine whether the Company's target of 200,000 ounce AuEq, at an estimated 53:1 price ratio, will be achieved in 2013 or 2014.
5:00PM McEwen Mining discovers additional gold at El Gallo Phase 1 production area (MUX) 3.00 +0.01 : Co announces exploration drill results from its 100% owned El Gallo Complex, in Sinaloa State, Mexico. Drilling has extended the known mineralized zones within the Phase 1 production area, where mine commissioning is underway (Fig. 1). The most impressive hole returned 1.1 gpt gold over 71.3 m, including 6.6 gpt gold over 4.9 m, which is believed to be the widest intersection of +1 gpt gold recorded at the property.
reply Bookmark this Ignore thread
Re: MUX , GORO new
Submitted by Illini (643 comments) on Thu, 07/19/2012 - 21:07 #111285 (in reply to #111284)
Gold Resource Corp (GORO) -NYSE MKT
25.22 0.26(1.02%) 4:00PM EDT|After Hours: 23.24 1.98 (7.85%) 7:42PM EDT
MUX - no change AH.
Very interesting, since we are talking about bonds.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/enbridge-launches-100-year-bond-issue/article4423591/
sold my last NKE call yesterday at the close since NKE was bumping up against the 20 day and I just knew we would have a down day today.
ReplyDeleteThat was my best trade for the year, too bad it was only 3 calls and not 33.
I like Jesse's chart on ANR. I could pick some of that up and not look at it for awhile.
Seems like we need to watch feeder cattle for a turn since all the farmers are selling them now. There should be a shortage in the future. Would that be COW? I can't see what COW's holdings are, maybe its just milk.
I looked at the COW chart, I don't see any stampede to the bottom of the hill there,
ReplyDeleteTOF- Just read some of the comments on the MITK board. Wow.
ReplyDeleteyeah poor dudes
DeleteYHOO- Man, that's a ton of money and pressure for a 35 year old. But think of it this way, the board who gave it to her are her parents age or older.
ReplyDeleteCOW - I guess the day will come soon when it's time to get mad over COW, cattlemen are probably forced to cut their herds currently and beef may actually decrease first?
ReplyDeleteFolks, check out
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=aumn&ql=1
and then check the top news headline. :)
"Shares, euro and oil dip, Spanish worries linger"???
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