(a) Weeds are flourishing along the median strips/traffic islands of the Bay Area. I can't say for sure whether it's gotten worse recently, only that I've started to notice. (b) Job insecurity. It's cropping up in conversations- either indirectly in the form of asking my opinion about outlook, or directly.
Yes I can. I was part to the process for many years. Mea Culpa. That's Latin and the short way to say "I am sorry". "I am culpable literally". Enough said.
NSPH: I consider the insider buying as the stock is rising extremely bullish. Obviously I'm biased but I can't ignore that. I still think this sucker gets to a $1 Billion valuation within 2 years. They projected 400 machine placements and $200k in annual test revs per machine to get to break even. They're already at $190k annual revs per machine based on tests already cleared by the FDA. Placements have tripled per quarter over the past 3 or 4 quarters and this is before the gram + blood test got FDA clearance on 6/27. All they need are more machine placements. Throw in one or 2 more FDA test clearances and you're looking at a potential gold mine in recurring revs. And this is all had for $140 Million market cap (after including the $25 Million in dilution). That just seems really low to me given the prospects.
Two things, CNOOC is buying NEXEN AND, the article talks about a lot of option volume. I would think these things are easy to investigate but maybe not. It could be someone really did their homework and had a FEELING something was about to happen.
Interesting though. Guy in the office that reads like you guys thinks China would like to take the tar sands oil to the coast and ship it overseas.
He also reads Barrons every weekend, single no kids, and he says this last weekend was one of the most market depressing Barrons he's ever read.
NXY - I didn't find out till after close. Anyway, it was trading below book and China can think past their noses into the future. Oh, and there must be verifiable hydrocarbons there somewhere.
Meanwhile, beltway insiders can't agree on anything except what's for lobbyist lunch.
Canadian companies have a bad tendency of having things slip out. You'll often see a stock here up 10% in a couple of days, then the Securities Commission will issue a halt and ask the company about it and it will turn out there are takeover discussion ongoing.
I don't know if it is because our market is so small, and it is easy to monitor the offices of companies who support takeovers, or if the penalties are too weak or difficult to enforce, but it sure happens more than it should and seems much worse than the U.S.
I think Nexen is a good buy for the Chinese. No way Canada would have let them go for the really big guys like SU or CNQ, they had no controlling shareholder (unlike IMO, HSE), so now you are down into the tier 2's. Nexen was cheap, has good current production (I think they are the biggest in the North Sea), oil sands, possibly 5 billion barrels of reserves.
Canada is really keen to diversify oil exports away from the political mess of the U.S. and especially towards China, so this should expidite things. Canada also has a strong history of allowing foreign ownership of energy (and owning energy around the world) and actually needs this to get enough capital to develop the huge assets relative to the size of our country. We'll let anyone in - the U.S., Holland, the UK, France, Taiwan, China already, so way better environment than when they tried to buy Unocal in the U.S.
Folks, did you notice that the volume has almost completely died out in SLV in the month of July? That's how a long-term bear market in some sector usually ends -- when people just give up on that sector and are not even interested in looking at it. That's what supposedly happened to stocks in 1982 -- "stock market" became a dirty word and no one even wanted to look at any stocks...
I'm watching it closely, along with the other metals and anything else I can think of. Still sinking, it appears. Today's 24hr USD chart looks like H&S.
David, be careful - that was after a 15 year bear market. Silver has only been downtrending for a year. The precious metals had their own multi-decade bear ending around 2001.
EWY - What happens when KJI II surprises everyone by lifting all the crazy BS North Korean laws and shoots dead anyone from the old regime who resists?
essentially: *razor/razor blade biz model - big recurring revs from tests *already have fda clearance on several tests like expected to generate $180k to $200k annually per machine placement *anticipate fda to rule on other tests over coming year which could potentially boost revs to $400k per machine annually *166 machine placements at 6/30/12 *projecting breakeven at 400 placements and $200k/year test revs per machine (already achieved 2nd part) *expect placements to grow from 10 per quarter last year to 30 current to 50 to 100 over next few quarters *catalyst is the FDA cleared gram positive test on 6/27/12 > only one to market with ability to test for a variety of infections and resistances to antibiotics and provide results in 2 hrs vs 2 days with normal blood cultures...which will allow MDs to provide specific antibiotic treatment for sepsis much faster and more effectively. *huge insider buying. *nice looking chart
CP - Is OBV posted the day after a day of trading? For example, the OBV for NSPH doesn't reflect today's trading right? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NSPH&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p80101595212
Yes, I believe you're correct. Not updated for today's action.
Volume is high today, which could be indicative of distribution, or tell-tale of an upside move(volume precedes price), and the fundamentals persuasively argue for the latter, right?
yeah it's not high enough for a distribution day is my thinking. unfortunately, i don't think i'll be able to get my last 12 or 13% in at the $2.5 level i was hoping for. had to get all picky like mark on it and not buy at $2.57
Well, getting longer today as one of my lowball, stink bids got hit on a Canadian IT services company. Feel good about getting stocks that cheap, regardless of what the market does.
Sharp pullbacks in silver are still getting bought. Weak hands are panicking (or selling to raise cash), while the strong hands with a longer time horizon are stepping in at this price.
Given how out of favour life companies are as investments, interesting that 2011 had the least value of financial impairments (ie. problem companies) in 50 years - from AM Best:
"Defying a host of economic challenges, financial impairments of U.S. life/health insurers appear to have reached their lowest point in half a century in terms of both number and frequency in 2011. With two known impairments representing 0.14% of the industry, 2011 produced the lowest numbers since 1962, when only one company became impaired, representing just 0.07% of the industry. This compares with an average financial impairment frequency of 0.84% over the period of this A.M. Best Co. special report.
The life/health performance stood in sharp contrast to the property/casualty segment, which has seen sharply increasing numbers of impairments."
GOOG sure made a come back from the open. Strong.
ReplyDeleteCP- Two observations this past week:
ReplyDelete(a) Weeds are flourishing along the median strips/traffic islands of the Bay Area. I can't say for sure whether it's gotten worse recently, only that I've started to notice.
(b) Job insecurity. It's cropping up in conversations- either indirectly in the form of asking my opinion about outlook, or directly.
http://nymag.com/news/features/danny-chen-2012-1/
ReplyDeleteHoly ----. And this is Afghanistan 2012. Can you imagine Vietnam 1966?
Yes I can. I was part to the process for many years. Mea Culpa. That's Latin and the short way to say "I am sorry". "I am culpable literally". Enough said.
DeleteCan you just imagine these American soldier's frame of mind concerning the citizens of Afghanistan?
DeleteTLT - Just keeps on kickin' Axx and taking names...
ReplyDelete2nd - "Two observations this past week:"
I trust you'll mention if/when the traffic lights become shut off. ;)
TOF- That's an impressive buy in NSPH. I had a more reasonable bid in today that wasn't hit obviously.
ReplyDeleteNSPH: I consider the insider buying as the stock is rising extremely bullish. Obviously I'm biased but I can't ignore that. I still think this sucker gets to a $1 Billion valuation within 2 years. They projected 400 machine placements and $200k in annual test revs per machine to get to break even. They're already at $190k annual revs per machine based on tests already cleared by the FDA. Placements have tripled per quarter over the past 3 or 4 quarters and this is before the gram + blood test got FDA clearance on 6/27. All they need are more machine placements. Throw in one or 2 more FDA test clearances and you're looking at a potential gold mine in recurring revs. And this is all had for $140 Million market cap (after including the $25 Million in dilution). That just seems really low to me given the prospects.
ReplyDeleteDV - Off the f'in cliff! Ugh, glad I wasn't long... I think it was TOF that suggested against it.
ReplyDeletestarting to get interesting...
DeleteI don't recall anyone posting this today.
ReplyDeleteTwo things, CNOOC is buying NEXEN
AND, the article talks about a lot of option volume. I would think these things are easy to investigate but maybe not. It could be someone really did their homework and had a FEELING something was about to happen.
Interesting though. Guy in the office that reads like you guys thinks China would like to take the tar sands oil to the coast and ship it overseas.
He also reads Barrons every weekend, single no kids, and he says this last weekend was one of the most market depressing Barrons he's ever read.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-23/nexen-call-volume-hit-four-year-high-before-15-1-billion-buyout.html
I bet it's a legit trade. No way they would go that heavy if they had insider info. Well, unless they're fools.
DeleteNXY - I didn't find out till after close. Anyway, it was trading below book and China can think past their noses into the future. Oh, and there must be verifiable hydrocarbons there somewhere.
DeleteMeanwhile, beltway insiders can't agree on anything except what's for lobbyist lunch.
Canadian companies have a bad tendency of having things slip out. You'll often see a stock here up 10% in a couple of days, then the Securities Commission will issue a halt and ask the company about it and it will turn out there are takeover discussion ongoing.
DeleteI don't know if it is because our market is so small, and it is easy to monitor the offices of companies who support takeovers, or if the penalties are too weak or difficult to enforce, but it sure happens more than it should and seems much worse than the U.S.
I think Nexen is a good buy for the Chinese. No way Canada would have let them go for the really big guys like SU or CNQ, they had no controlling shareholder (unlike IMO, HSE), so now you are down into the tier 2's. Nexen was cheap, has good current production (I think they are the biggest in the North Sea), oil sands, possibly 5 billion barrels of reserves.
DeleteCanada is really keen to diversify oil exports away from the political mess of the U.S. and especially towards China, so this should expidite things. Canada also has a strong history of allowing foreign ownership of energy (and owning energy around the world) and actually needs this to get enough capital to develop the huge assets relative to the size of our country. We'll let anyone in - the U.S., Holland, the UK, France, Taiwan, China already, so way better environment than when they tried to buy Unocal in the U.S.
Folks, did you notice that the volume has almost completely died out in SLV in the month of July? That's how a long-term bear market in some sector usually ends -- when people just give up on that sector and are not even interested in looking at it. That's what supposedly happened to stocks in 1982 -- "stock market" became a dirty word and no one even wanted to look at any stocks...
ReplyDeleteI'm watching it closely, along with the other metals and anything else I can think of. Still sinking, it appears. Today's 24hr USD chart looks like H&S.
DeleteDavid, be careful - that was after a 15 year bear market. Silver has only been downtrending for a year. The precious metals had their own multi-decade bear ending around 2001.
DeleteIllini, did you get notified when my article about AUMN got published? Do you get notified when I post comments on SA?
ReplyDeleteSilver - I'll add, my idea is that it must fail $26 before it can begin moving up, and in order for that to happen, it must then rise above $26.
ReplyDeleteGreat comment, illini! Can't tell you how many times I've looked back in regret at my own actions.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-reach-bottom-zillow-040115333.html
ReplyDeletePalladium falls under %566 support briefly...
ReplyDeleteNSPH- It took some doing but I'm in AVG. 2.70. 27K shares.
ReplyDeleteGOOG - Still googl'n right back up.
ReplyDeleteEWY - What happens when KJI II surprises everyone by lifting all the crazy BS North Korean laws and shoots dead anyone from the old regime who resists?
ReplyDeletePositive news: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fhfa-says-home-prices-climb-08-in-may-2012-07-24?link=MW_latest_news
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAdded 15K @ 2.73.
ReplyDeletenice man...i'm still waiting on my final batch. this sucker is volatile.
Deleteprobably dumb to wait for lower prices...it's already 25% lower than two weeks ago.
Deletejust noticed it's trading along it's 20 DMA which is rising.
DeleteBTU - Ouch! Like having your finger slammed in the car door.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Yeah, I'm getting tired of waiting for a lower price so I can add.
ReplyDeleteSQNM - This one's giving an opportunity here, but I'm not too sure about this one anymore.
CYNO - that's one fine looking chart.
ReplyDeleteTLM - Another nice green day.
ReplyDeleteNE - Is this a 3 month cup I'm lookin' at?
ReplyDeleteJOY - Not so happy-happy, joy-joy.
ReplyDeleteARII - Reports tomorrow AMC
ReplyDeleteETN - Boy these CEO's sure do give good TV interviews.
ReplyDeleteMUX 3K at 2.78
ReplyDeleteFunny, just looked at the charts and we've only been going down 3 days, but feeling really frustrated by the market today.
ReplyDeleteMust be the endless barrage of bad news. Port said Barron's this weekend was one of the most depressing ever, so probably everywhere.
Time to go for a walk and get a fresh view.
Picked up a little more NSPH at $2.72/3
ReplyDeletecrap...some jerk stole my shares.
DeleteGot filled on 500 shares...argh
DeleteTCK - Who knows, maybe we can get this thing into the teens if we try...
ReplyDeleteTBT @ 14.13
ReplyDeletePlatinum - $1380 is important support level, seems to be breaking down but won't likely know for several days until upside resistance is tested.
ReplyDeleteSVM - Interesting this one doesn't want to fall under $5, must be due to dividend is higher than T's are paying?
LOL, I'm hearing Paul Simon lurking in the background singing "Slip-sliding away"...
ReplyDeleteCueing up the next TT headline?
DeleteNSPH-
ReplyDeleteCan someone give the quick and dirty on why the board is hot on NSPH?
PZ - I'd recommend listening to the Investor Day presentation here:
Deletehttp://staging-retail.ccbn.com/cc.asp?ticker=nsph&coid=214748&client=cb
The accompanying presentation materials are here:
http://www.nanosphere.us/investors/presentations
Thanks TOF
Deleteessentially:
Delete*razor/razor blade biz model - big recurring revs from tests
*already have fda clearance on several tests like expected to generate $180k to $200k annually per machine placement
*anticipate fda to rule on other tests over coming year which could potentially boost revs to $400k per machine annually
*166 machine placements at 6/30/12
*projecting breakeven at 400 placements and $200k/year test revs per machine (already achieved 2nd part)
*expect placements to grow from 10 per quarter last year to 30 current to 50 to 100 over next few quarters
*catalyst is the FDA cleared gram positive test on 6/27/12 > only one to market with ability to test for a variety of infections and resistances to antibiotics and provide results in 2 hrs vs 2 days with normal blood cultures...which will allow MDs to provide specific antibiotic treatment for sepsis much faster and more effectively.
*huge insider buying.
*nice looking chart
So buy below 2.75 is what you are looking to do?
DeleteThanks for the summary
I'm still hoping to add my last bit at $2.52. Not sure if I will be able to now.
DeletePut in a stink bid for 5000K shares
Deletewe shall see
5k rather LOL
Deleteoh man...what's the consensus on the move tomorrow in MITK? what a crap shoot. might as well go to vegas.
ReplyDeleteNSPH/MITK battling it out for the #10 spot in the daily top 10! Too funny. My computer did add another 5K @ 2.68 while away. As for MITK I say -.06.
Deleteno idea on the actual results but the stock moves 20% either way.
Deleteactually vegas is 100% either way so a gambler might find solace in MITK tomorrow.
Delete"vegas is 100% either way"
DeleteWho knows.... I wouldn't feel too terribly uncomfortable adding NSPH at lower prices, can't say that for MITK.
MUX- Bidding 50 Jan 2.50 calls @ .65
ReplyDeleteCP - Is OBV posted the day after a day of trading? For example, the OBV for NSPH doesn't reflect today's trading right?
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NSPH&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p80101595212
Yes, I believe you're correct. Not updated for today's action.
DeleteVolume is high today, which could be indicative of distribution, or tell-tale of an upside move(volume precedes price), and the fundamentals persuasively argue for the latter, right?
I'll take the chance.
yeah it's not high enough for a distribution day is my thinking. unfortunately, i don't think i'll be able to get my last 12 or 13% in at the $2.5 level i was hoping for. had to get all picky like mark on it and not buy at $2.57
DeleteWHR - So much for a breakout. Doubt it could've gone far anyway, considering the overall circumstances.
ReplyDeletewhat a trading stock man
DeleteI like the concept of a home natty refueling device. Not exactly rocket or nano science, but WHR can do it as well or better than anyone can.
Deletealright fellas...will be back to watch the action in MITK after hours. i'll have a Magic Hat #9 lined up for all of you at the close.
ReplyDeleteWell, getting longer today as one of my lowball, stink bids got hit on a Canadian IT services company. Feel good about getting stocks that cheap, regardless of what the market does.
ReplyDeleteSharp pullbacks in silver are still getting bought. Weak hands are panicking (or selling to raise cash), while the strong hands with a longer time horizon are stepping in at this price.
ReplyDelete2 days in a row, we've come back from big losses to finish not horrible. Strong buying in particular the last half hour today.
ReplyDeleteGenerally end of day buying is a sign of smart buyers moving into the market.
Given how out of favour life companies are as investments, interesting that 2011 had the least value of financial impairments (ie. problem companies) in 50 years - from AM Best:
ReplyDelete"Defying a host of economic challenges, financial impairments of U.S. life/health insurers appear to have reached their lowest point in half a century in terms of both number and frequency in 2011. With two known impairments representing 0.14% of the industry, 2011 produced the lowest numbers since 1962, when only one company became impaired, representing just 0.07% of the industry. This compares with an average financial impairment frequency of 0.84% over the period of this A.M. Best Co. special report.
The life/health performance stood in sharp contrast to the property/casualty segment, which has seen sharply increasing numbers of impairments."
MITK -.05, -.08 GAAP. Fing nailed that #.
ReplyDeleteBTW, do you think MITK scheduled earnings on the same day as AAPL???....I do!
DeleteDavid - "Illini, did you get notified when my article about AUMN got published? Do you get notified when I post comments on SA?"
ReplyDeleteThe answer to the first is no but the other is yes. I'm thinking that the followers thing is just a popularity gauge.
new post
ReplyDeleteFB @ 27.55 after hours...
ReplyDeleteZNGA @ 2.99...
ReplyDeleteFB added @ 27.17...
ReplyDelete