Tuesday, July 24, 2012

07/25/12 Red Bull

No, not the aggressively marketed concoction fronting the registers at your local 7-11. I'm referring to the bullish frame of mind that often follows sharp corrections. We may see one tomorrow.

141 comments:

  1. APKT...but earnings are in 2 days.

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    1. didnt they already report?

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    2. APKT - Two days AMC. How much do you know about this one, what does the chart say, how high could it possibly go in two days, why not wait for the reaction?

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    3. Acme Packet to Release Second Quarter Financial Results on July 26, 2012 Marketwire

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    4. CP- I meant it looks interesting but not with earnings 2 days away.

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  2. YZC - It's been selling off since November, it's coal, it's Chinese, it's $7B market cap, and pays over 6% dividend.

    Sure would be nice to have a crystal ball gateway into the future.

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  3. WNR- Man, left about 3K on the table there.

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  4. jesse is scaring me. I'm sleeping with my comfort blanket and Jack Daniel's tonight.

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  5. I can't get into my old email account anymore, since they forced the password change I neglected to remember my new password, LOL!

    So I made a new account, with an underscore "_" between last and first name.

    Can you please shoot it to me there?

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  6. Replies
    1. It's always fun to read a horror story before bed!

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  7. Catch you guys at the open... Might get Fugly!

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  8. Okay, so yeah I see what jesse's saying but a commodities price boom is probably something Bernanke wants to avoid anyway, unless somehow it helps the banks.

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  9. I think we could have a couple more months of indecision by the market. Focus on those stocks holding up well.

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  10. "The answer to the first is no but the other is yes. I'm thinking that the followers thing is just a popularity gauge."

    That's VERY strange. As a follower of somebody, it would be MUCH more interesting to me to read that person's new article than his comments on an existing article... But then, knowing that your comments are immediately visible to all of your followers, motivates people to comment more, which makes the whole SeekingAlpha system more interactive...

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  11. http://www.objectivetrader.com/2012/07/end-of-day-24-july-2012-2.html

    "As discussed during trading hours in last article and CW Room, the long entry area was ES 1321-1324. Currently OT is holding ES 1322 & 1324, TF 760 & 765 and AGQ at the close

    The target of the bounce would be the 20 EMA area in hourly chart.

    That being said, it seems the market has still some unfinished business to the downside after the bounce towards 20 EMA has been completed. It seems likely that we will test 1310 area by early next week."

    In looking at the charts earlier this is EXACTLY what I was thinking...a very short term bounce followed by a re-test of the 1,310ish area. That was a big area of congestion in early and late June.

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    Replies
    1. AGQ - Well that was a good short term call, but I don't see where anything has changed for the PM's.

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  12. In Seeking Alpha, you decide what you want to get email notification on by clicking on "ALERTS" and you always receive notifications on messages that you have commented on. You will also see them when you are in Seeking Alpha in the small clickboard at the top right.

    I used to get these emails, but they got to be too much, so now I just go to the "Home" screen every morning and the articles by people you follow are about half way down the page.

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  13. MITK- Listened to the CC. I don't think RDC will be able to fund LT operations and current build out rate. Better hope Bill pay, etc. are a hit. I see NO reason to enter here at all.

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  14. BTW, I'm SOOOO glad the Niners didn't get Manning.

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  15. TOF- NSPH showing up on some of the highly followed momo Twitz.

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  16. F- I must not get it. Seems cheap too me.

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  17. NSPH- The big trades so far this AM have been sales..although the same thing can be said for yesterday morning.

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  18. NSPH - I just noticed, yesterday was a gap up day from $2.64, I guess that needs to close at some point just as the previous gap up did, unfortunately.

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  19. OK- Are we finished with the morning impulse moves?

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  20. i did the emotional thing and added last bit of nsph at 3. will pull a chunk off at 3.5 if it gets there

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    Replies
    1. I'm guessing it will get there, just not sure if the gap needs to close first. Maybe $3.50 first and a selloff to close the gap?

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  21. http://seekingalpha.com/article/743181-speculative-3-stock-gets-important-fda-approval-and-has-heavy-insider-buying?source=yahoo

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    1. Damn, this Mark Slezak guy bought 2.4m (1m shares) worth of NSPH last Wednesday.

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    2. yeah he's been buying a ton of the stock. he's gotta know something no?

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  22. SQNM - Weak looking ahead of earnings.

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  23. NSPH - Brief article on SA with positive outlook:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/743181-speculative-3-stock-gets-important-fda-approval-and-has-heavy-insider-buying?source=yahoo

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  24. Someone write this one down. VRNM. I'll be back.

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  25. CP - Its my impression that the gap fill at $2.6 for NSPH isn't really a gap that needs to be filled because it traded through that in the weeks prior. If it's a runaway gap up or down I think the theory is those need to be filled. Could be wrong...

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    1. Dang sure it's moving in the right direction in a convincing way, I'm not one to argue with that! ;)

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    2. I'm hoping they can keep the moves at 9% or 10% a day and not get into the momo crowd. If we can avoid the top 10 gainers list for a few days then it will just be a steady move up with some gaps near the top as people find catch on and feel forced to get in.

      Volume isn't astronomical yet but when it does get astronomical I will be looking to peel off a bit and try to trade that. For now it looks really good. Every up move over the past month has been on good vol and pull backs have been on low vol.

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  26. hey boys, going to lay off the futures again for awhile, action has been nuts.

    added more INFA at $27.50. big blue, dell or hpq is going to buy this sucker now that they've gotten a serious haircut.

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    Replies
    1. what's up JB? how's that program going?

      INFA > don't know the story but that big red bar on the monthly is scary. makes me think the highs from the last bull market will be a starting point for going long...i.e., $20.

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    2. hey! had to park the algo for a bit (dean is way too busy at INTC to spend much time on further development).

      I've been trading INFA for a couple of years, but I really think given its recent miss that now is the time for it to get bought out. EIM isn't s fantastic stand alone biz so one of the big boys will end up writing a check to grab them.

      How have you been and how is the trading going?

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    3. bummer...i was interested in seeing how that came along.

      trading has been ok. i peaked in feb and have been trying to claw my way back there since. still up nicely but it's been a tough year to make big gains.

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    4. green is great, congrats! agree it's pretty tough out there nowadays.

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  27. KMB - Dividend is still juicy in comparison to T's, reports tomorrow morning.

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  28. CP! What's going on? Been talking w/Mark lately and he's helping get me off the futures crack pipe and back to good old swing trading, esp since I cannot move forward on the algo on my own.

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    1. What's up! Anything going on in the cyber attack defense space, time to sell (I hear about how hot this space is, a lot lately) or buy?

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    2. space is/should be great, what I struggle with is finding "pure plays" in that area.

      anything on your radar?

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    3. VMW/Symantec/IBM?? I can't keep track of this space but VMW advertises on DC newsradio about everyday.

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  29. NYT - Just eliminated it's Blackberry app.

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  30. WDC - Reports tonight

    Wow, I'm surprised a little with gold this morning.

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  31. TBF - Okay, focusing on this one again.

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  32. EMC - Also in the cyberthreat defense space.

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  33. Cybersecurity - Here's the Finviz list:

    http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_securitysoftwareservices

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  34. Replies
    1. Good Q out of SYMC, fired CEO this morning who didn't really do very well the last 3 years. CEO said all options on the table including M/A options.

      One of the cheaper larger tech companies. Has mostly traded higher than the current price, even with today's jump, for the last 2 years.

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    2. I love when terrible CEO's get the ax!

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  35. Replies
    1. Yep, very nice move. Looks like your bud knows what he was talking about.

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    2. My only concern involves the IP lawsuit, although INVN's success could result in buyout insider selling is not a good sign?

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    3. Insider selling after a lockup period is not an issue for me...

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    4. Build it and they'll come, if you've got a product you can make at a profit, everyone else needs and nobody else makes, you stand to make a s-pot of money.

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  36. NGD - Inverse H&S geometric target is $13

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  37. Actually HW could be building out a cup and handle on the weekly chart...

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  38. SDS at 15.98. Taking the old hag for dance into the close.

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    1. I'm liking that TBT entry from yesterday, an appealing move.

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    2. holding tight on that and CEF for a bit I think
      . if MUX dips again, might add that back too

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    3. Off the SDS at 16.10. missed the re-entry on MUX by a few cents. Try again tomorrow. Only holding CEF and TBT into tomorrow in the trading account.

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  39. PEIX...still looks good. I sold at a small loss the other day but look at BIOF.

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  40. Re SYMC - RBC upgrades to OP saying break-up could yield $28 stock price in a premium case.

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  41. Boyz...Good to see you back bro.

    Sandy Weill is a Fing puss.

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    Replies
    1. A bankster's bankster for dure, their definition of success involves every mechanism of manipulative theft imaginable.

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  42. LL- This one is carzy. total POS store no reputable contractor would step foot in.

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  43. Thelma and Louise warming up their T-Bird?

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  44. INVN +31%

    InvenSense (INVN:$12.04,00$2.85,0031.01%) shares have jumped nearly 30% after the company posted its FQ1 results. Revenue was $39.2M, up 10% year-over-year and in-line with guidance of $38M-$40M. The company posted EPS of $0.09, above the analyst estimate of $0.08.
    During its earnings call, INVN guided for Q3 revenue of $53M-$57M - in-line with a $54.3M consensus

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  45. probably dumb but scrounged up my last $$ and bought 3900 shs NSPH at $3.01/2

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    1. to me this is a shakeout...clear and simple. the only thing that worries me is the general mkt but the trading is perfect for a slow grind higher. until i see the volume explode and see it move up in gaps and on the top 10 gainers list i'm content. if stephen stewart steps in and buys then i'll need to be on my toes.

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    2. Isn't it plain and simple?

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    3. Everyone in this market seems to be so conditioned into a habit of immediately taking profits.

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    4. Might get my chance yet. Holding the line still. Want in cheaper.

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    5. clear, plain, and simple.

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  46. This must be yet another victimless Crime perpetrated on behalf of the free market? There's no telling what's really going on in the background of this David Copperfield show.

    "Congressman Scott Garrett asked Geithner why his response in the face of alleged fraud had been so muted.

    "You have been before this committee countless numbers of times since 2008 and if this is the crime of the century, as so many people are reporting today, never once did you ever once come and mention it as being a problem, never once did you come here and say this is what you're going to do about it," said Garrett."

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  47. Replies
    1. Opps...canceled. I thought it was closer to the close. Will wait.

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    2. It has been dead money for a long time. I love the product though.

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    3. Yep, that's kinda the trade.

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    4. Not bagging on ya. Just saying. I like the thought, but what will be the catalyst? I own some F in an investment club account and it has been frustrating as hell watching it continue to shit on itself. I still remember the day when I missed the BID at like 1.21 cents on that sucker. Missed it by like 2 cents. Dang

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    5. F makes great stuff, but they really need to ditch that old tired chrome grill from the 49 pickup and maybe instead give us something really cool like a fuel injected flathead:

      http://www.conceptcarz.com/view/photo/605037,18964/1949-Ford-F-1_photo.aspx#photo

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    6. I don't think it really needs a huge catalyst. Maybe just plain sellers fatigue.

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  48. Abracadabra, or Go on, take the money and run?

    I heat up, I can't cool down You got me spinnin' 'Round and 'round '.......

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  49. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  50. "Everyone in this market seems to be so conditioned into a habit of immediately taking profits."

    Except me. However, taking profits is EXACTLY what I should have been doing for the past year, since I did not make any gains on EVERY rally in AUMN.

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    1. I kind of thought you might eventually get around to modeling various strategies, like selling morning strength and buying afternoon weakness.

      I've been wanting to run the opening/closing figures through a number series resolver to look for patterns. I probably would've attempted this a decade ago but now I'm just too lazy to attempt writing such code. It's probably easier than I imagine, using today's toolsets.

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  51. ZNGA- I never did get how this one worked..ie, make money...

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  52. Replies
    1. AKAM/WDC - That figures! Look at the insider buying, who the hell are these crazy fools who've been selling these things?

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    2. My brother in law nailed it with WDC. They bought stock through their company's investment account.

      It's good to see some things getting a boost on earnings and others taking hits. It tells me that the market is acting a bit more rationally as opposed to when everything was going up or down together.

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    3. "tells me that the market is acting a bit more rationally"

      Let's hope that trend continues, would be nice to have a metric tracking this.

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  53. JCP - Project on runway show host Nina Garcia gives JCP the big green thumbs up. Sounds like JCP shamelessly self-promoting?

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  54. CAT - What's good for CAT's good for JOY?

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  55. boy LCC sure looks cheap. Looks like a buyable pullback in an uptrend

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    Replies
    1. Didn't participate in today's party though, wonder what's up with that?

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  56. Solar - Remember when Carter told everyone to turn their thermostats down back in early 1977 b/c high natty prices were responsible for 400,000 layoffs?

    Solar was a dud even under those conditions.

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  57. 2nd of July, my broker published the following suggestions:

    Consumer Discretionary: DIS, DRI, &
    LVS
    Consumer Staples: KMB, MO, & WMT
    Energy: APC, CVX, & XOM
    Financials: AXP, TMK, USB & VTR
    Health Care: AGN & LLY
    Industrials: BA & UPS
    Information Technology: DELL, IBM,
    INTC, & JBL
    Materials: DD
    Telecommunication Services: CTL & VZ
    Utilities: AEP

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  58. Sorry guys> I posted the following comments under the wrong lead post:

    2nd_aveJuly 25, 2012 1:48 PM

    FB @ 27.55 after hours...
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    2nd_aveJuly 25, 2012 1:57 PM

    ZNGA @ 2.99...
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    2nd_aveJuly 25, 2012 1:58 PM

    FB added @ 27.17...

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    Replies
    1. For some reason, when I load TT at work, Blogspot delivers me directly to the lead post ONLY if there's a video link? O/w the lead post appears 'blank.'

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    2. I may end up sorry as hell I picked up those shares.

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    3. FB- Gutsy call Mav. Hope FB earnings tomorrow surprise.

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  59. F - Can't get over the 1970's joke I saw in the WSJ: "I dreamed that I was driving a Ford Pinto with Firestone radials." Both products were safety disasters. I carpooled in STL in the back seat of a Pinto, complete with huge hump. Ugh. I'm sure things have changed. Focus seems like a great looking small car.

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    1. The safety hazard of the Pinto was the gas tank that was easily ruptured in a rear-ender. Firestone (now Bridgestone) had a problem with quality trying to keep up with Europe and Japan.

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    2. The Pinto wasn't the only Ford in those days that had the gas tank top serve double duty as the trunk bottom, the Torino also used this design, iirc.

      The Pinto's quality beat the pants off the Vega(GM's cheapest built car ever, only to be outdone by the Chevette) though, IMO, although this was the era where American manufacturers were rapidly losing market share to foreign (mostly Japanese) competition because many of these vehicles were just inexcusably cheaply built.

      Looking back, Ford saved a lot of money on their unibody design, the GM mid and large cars were far better designed not just b/c they used a full-perimeter frame but the drivetrain, fit and finish, and suspension were all better.

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    3. "I carpooled in STL in the back seat of a Pinto"

      Man, there must've been another reason than just getting a ride, but what kind of friend would make you ride cramped up in the back of one of those things?

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    4. Anyway, those were drop-in fuel tanks (through the trunk). A serious rear-end was almost guaranteed to rupture the tank and splash fuel all inside the trunk and up against the back seat as the rear of the vehicle was being crushed.

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  60. SBUX- Interesting spot. Earnings tomorrow AH's.

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    1. Will GMCR ever stop cratering?

      I'm hearing the South American (Brazil?) Arabica crop is having trouble with extremely wet conditions.

      DECK - Taken to the cleaners again today, looking like TC and BTU/coal but can't possibly be as bad off?

      I'll be pleased if JOY can pull one off, I hear their Wisconsin above ground equipment business is going well, just can't verify this.

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  61. PEIX - I don't know man, I'm pretty sure I smell a rat...

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  62. Replies
    1. I saw that. 23% premium, but it looks like they were almost broke.

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  63. So what do you guys think about Louise Yamada?


    http://www.cnbc.com/id/48326202
    "Yamada, who is managing director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors tells us that her proprietary technical analysis has uncovered two structural bull markets.

    One is in technology [XLK 28.08 -0.11 (-0.39%) ] and the other is in consumer staples [XLP 34.64 0.01 (+0.03%) ]."

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  64. notes for tomorrow, i may not take this trade though

    DIS, still in an uptrend, set a stop just below the low of 2 days ago which was 47.42 so maybe 47.29 just to be odd. buy trigger was yesterday at 48.16, closed today at 48.30. At 48.30 risking $500 that would be 500 shares with a first sell target of 49.30.

    We'll see what things look like in the morn.

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    Replies
    1. just to be consistent with my trading plan, I would probably reduce the amount I would risk on the trade because the SPY chart is still just chopping around even though the SPY is putting in higher lows every few days.

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    2. Port- I think SBUX would be right up your Landry.

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    3. Man, that's really funny!!!

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    4. TOF will be opening for me all week...

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    5. bah dum bum...mark everyone.

      lots of charts setting upp low risk double bottoms. nok intrigues me still. alright fellas good night.

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  65. decent run up this early a.m., probably another one of those days where all the action occurs during globex, then there is a slow, drip-drip, selloff during the cash session

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