nice 2nd. guys look at nok. it sure looks like it has bottomed. there are two gaps it should fill...the second one is at 3.2 which is 60% higher. i consider this the nat gas trade of late summer/fall
nice little pop in INFA this a.m., already have an outsized position so I'm not going to add more. going to call my corp dev buddies today and see if there is any real takeover chatter out there.
I don't know, the US healed (still healing) so maybe it possible Europe heals. So I guess if we think Europe can heal, it's smart to buy the pullbacks to the trend line(especially breakdowns).
I've heard the term "sub par" being used lately, is this correct that corporate earnings are sub par this Q?
I think earnings are growing, but more slowly than in the past. Revenues are not increasing as quickly as before as well.
What I think is really sub-par are people's expectations - when you see a basic hardware store stock like TSCO going up 16% on a 2% earnings forecast raise, you know people are pretty negative.
There actually have been a large number of big moves this Q, both up and down. Some you expect - like a volatile stock like XNGA, but stocks like TSCO are a surprise.
my honest opinion: yawn. i fully expect it to retrace a lot of the gains...only because that's how these f'ers trade. then again, i'm looking for a longer term trade on this.
I'm very intrigued by FB right here...i'd have to imagine they become less and less reliant upon ZNGA...and rather ZNGA woes are exclusive to them. If a game's popularity fades then another game will replace it. Providing the game marketplace is the way to make the money. That's what FB does. It's like saying Amazon is a sell because a best selling product is losing popularity.
My main issue with FB is amongst guys my age its viewed as a chick site. I don't know if this is just a passing thing with our demographic and if we will gravitate back to the site or if it is beginning to fade away. These social sites are fickle.
I don't think I mentioned this but back in 2005 I had all of my money in a company called Intermix, which owned 100% of My Space. The stock went up literally every single day I owned it and then it was purchased by News Corp for like $600 Million. I was furious that they sold at this price because at the time it was worth so much more. They put a valuation of $10 to $15 Billion on it a year later. Needless to say I would have made a ton. However, the site is now worth nothing. Not saying FB is like that but these social sites are very much a perception thing amongst its users.
The best social site out there is LNKD. If FB jobs never gains traction, which I don't think it will, then LNKD should continue to do fine. However, the threat of a FB jobs section gaining traction could very well hit LNKD and if this happens it would be a great buy down around $50 to $60
Gutsy call 2nd - good luck. Will be a big mover one way or another I'd bet.
Re FB, the web site, my youngest daughter - the one who trashed Ugg's - is saying FB is becoming unpopular well. Twitter is the "in" thing still. Maybe it's because 3 of her 4 grandparents are on FB now. Instagram is also an "in" thing.
A few things- 1. FB is just as big to men as women in the under 30 crowd. 30+ your probably right that it is scewed to women.
2. FB will not take over LNKD.....the last thing I want an employer/employee seeing is my personal stuff. I don't friend work relationships on FB and vice versa.
3. FB in order to succeed will need to find more and better ways to monetize the future of the company or it will die out. I think most people pay zero attention to any ads generated there now.
MET - Earnings Aug 1st. On Balance Volume on weekly doesn't exactly seem bullish but RSI(7) on daily and weekly turned up through 30, anyone here long this thing? I need to stop F'n around and get long something if this market isn't gonna crash already.
WDC - As homework, I'll be looking this chart over closely for clues, I'm sure they're there somewhere.
Europe - Okay, I see what 's going on now, the eurozone politicians are going on vacation and so told the market they'd fix everything once they return ("believe me")...
CP, I'm long MET at $31.72 from last fall. In hindsight, it would have been to sell when it got back towards $40 and buy back in now.
MET has got to be one of the cheapest stocks in the S&P 500 with P/E = 5.3 and P/B =5.2. Their stock is down for 2 main reasons:
1. The Fed won't let them raise their dividend even though they have $4 billion of excess capital because MET owns a bank which they are selling to GE (2% of business) and found MET to not have excess capital on the bank stress test (none of the insurers who own banks passed).
2. People are worried about what low long term rates do to a company like MET, even though they have done a very good job of hedging the interest rate risk out of the business.
I would not be surprised to see a good move upwards on earnings - the lifeco's which have released earnings so far have been generally good and the market has usually moved up on these. Plus, probably in September, the MET bank will be sold and MET should be able to raise dividends and share buybucks for a total of about $7 billion on a $30 billion market cap.
"Gold - Seems like today's volume is high again, similar to every prior test of upper trend line. Distribution by strong hands?"
According to Yahoo finance, today's volume in GLD is 6,182,130 so far, while the avg. volume is 10,191,800. The volume has been very low in GLD and SLV for the whole of July -- that's what happens when a sector is completely despised and forgotten. When the new long-term uptrend starts, the volume will gradually pick up, since MANY people are waiting to jump in once the price establishes an uptrend.
I also think TRIP has one of the best locks on it's users of the social sites in addition to LNKD. If they can monetize this better while maintaining their image as the place to go for travel info, could do really well.
Oversold on weekly RSI, MACD about to turn north, RSI buy signal ondaily, MACD higher high on daily, new 52wk low today, Fairly high volume day, as well.
seriously, though they are killing it with their marketplace. i still think GOOG has a huge opportunity to crush them by creating their own marketplace but that may not be their strategy.
FIO looks like a potential huge mover with their earnings coming up on 8/9/12. I don't know what the options are priced at but I would bet that a straddle would work out well.
I talked to my buddy that knows the CEO and a couple of other guys but other than saying it was a "solid" co he didn't give me any info that would help me make an investment decision
I wouldn't be surprised if TIF buys out NILE. I used NILE to buy my wife's engagement ring and wedding band. The site was far better than any other site I looked at. I still think there's a lot of value with this brand.
GMO - Downgraded by BOAML, 12mo target reduced to $3.50
"We are downgrading General Moly, Inc. (GMO) to Underperform from Neutral and have reduced our PO to $3.50 from $4.10 on increased permitting and financing risks, as well as higher capex. These factors reduced our NAV by 7% and P/NAV target multiple to 0.5x (was 0.55x). We expect the next catalyst for GMO’s stock will be a capex update for its Mt Hope project. We have increased our Mt Hope capex to $1.35 bn from $1.25 bn, expecting capex to come in 17% above GMO’s last estimate of $1.15 bn (as of November 2009), driving a $200 mn capex financing shortfall, thereby increasing financing risk. In addition, recent permitting and financing delays, coupled with increased permitting/financing pushes out our forecasted Mt Hope production start date by two quarters to 3Q15."
Offed ZNGA @ 3.12. Offed FB @ 27.6x.
ReplyDeletenice 2nd. guys look at nok. it sure looks like it has bottomed. there are two gaps it should fill...the second one is at 3.2 which is 60% higher. i consider this the nat gas trade of late summer/fall
ReplyDeletegeez there are so many things that look enticing right here.
ReplyDeletedmnd
gmcr
nok
fslr
fio - i really like this one for a trade.
take a look at invn and peix...both had similar setups before ripping 33% higher. a basket of the above i bet couuld yield 30% gains in a month
PEIX - Per finviz, Gross Margin is 1% ......?
DeleteAbout the same as construction.
DeleteGE - Back over $20, must be time for shorty to step in soon?
ReplyDeleteIt's a short-covering rally, IMO. No plans to trade it either way.
ReplyDeleteYou didn't jump in y-day? I thought I saw a post from you to this effect.
DeleteF- God, what a total POS.
ReplyDeleteCouple of ratings today. PT's of 13/14. I'm only looking for 12.
DeleteWDC - I guess I may as well cancel my $25 stink bid, so much for wishful thinking...
ReplyDeleteDMND - Shorts are paying a 1% dividend, it seems
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't own this one though, unless I knew something positive about the goings-on.
DeleteNice upgrade for BAS.
ReplyDeleteAre you still planning on getting into the energy sector?
DeleteDDD - Coming right back...
I'm always trying too. Just seem to keep missing it by a day.
DeleteCEF off at 20.01 for now
ReplyDeleteTBT off 14.235
DeleteNice trades, Pz.
DeleteTHanks 2nd....took me awhile to get into the seat this year, but I am comfortably back now and my trades are batting way over 50% so far.
DeleteJust hooked up this totally col remote. Let's me wirelessly control each room/zones key pad for my music. Very slick.
ReplyDeleteOpened a small position in GALE. 1.77 5K shares. Been following this one for a while.
ReplyDeletenice little pop in INFA this a.m., already have an outsized position so I'm not going to add more. going to call my corp dev buddies today and see if there is any real takeover chatter out there.
ReplyDeleteThx.
DeleteOf course I would never pretend BACML isn't consumed with their own self-interests...
DeleteBofAML Rating
Last updated 07/06/2012
Underperform
If Europe heals - Shorts are gonna be SOL big time.
ReplyDeleteI'm not so sure Europe 'heals' that quickly, CP. Right now, it kind of feels like morning buyers transitioning to bag-holders.
DeleteI agree. I missed my SDS re-entry making breakfast. Get a longer rally and VXX is attractive again @ 13ish.
Delete"feels like morning buyers transitioning to bag-holders."
DeleteYeah, it sure does, we've sung this same verse seems like hundreds of time this year.
Being a bag-holder hasn't been a bad place to be this year with the SPY still up 8%.
DeleteSeems to be easier than trading this year with all the market flip-flops.
I don't know, the US healed (still healing) so maybe it possible Europe heals. So I guess if we think Europe can heal, it's smart to buy the pullbacks to the trend line(especially breakdowns).
DeleteI've heard the term "sub par" being used lately, is this correct that corporate earnings are sub par this Q?
I think earnings are growing, but more slowly than in the past. Revenues are not increasing as quickly as before as well.
DeleteWhat I think is really sub-par are people's expectations - when you see a basic hardware store stock like TSCO going up 16% on a 2% earnings forecast raise, you know people are pretty negative.
There actually have been a large number of big moves this Q, both up and down. Some you expect - like a volatile stock like XNGA, but stocks like TSCO are a surprise.
NSPH retraces all of yesterdays gains after the open. Better hold this level.
ReplyDeletemy honest opinion: yawn. i fully expect it to retrace a lot of the gains...only because that's how these f'ers trade. then again, i'm looking for a longer term trade on this.
DeleteYeah, they're not waiting around to take their gains on WDC today either.
DeleteGL guys. ATC.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - I put a stinky bid on @ $2.56 in case someone panics out during today's little pullback.
ReplyDeletemine is 2.55 lol
Deletemight have to change that!LOL
FB on again @ 27.35...
ReplyDeleteI'm very intrigued by FB right here...i'd have to imagine they become less and less reliant upon ZNGA...and rather ZNGA woes are exclusive to them. If a game's popularity fades then another game will replace it. Providing the game marketplace is the way to make the money. That's what FB does. It's like saying Amazon is a sell because a best selling product is losing popularity.
DeleteMy main issue with FB is amongst guys my age its viewed as a chick site. I don't know if this is just a passing thing with our demographic and if we will gravitate back to the site or if it is beginning to fade away. These social sites are fickle.
DeleteI don't think I mentioned this but back in 2005 I had all of my money in a company called Intermix, which owned 100% of My Space. The stock went up literally every single day I owned it and then it was purchased by News Corp for like $600 Million. I was furious that they sold at this price because at the time it was worth so much more. They put a valuation of $10 to $15 Billion on it a year later. Needless to say I would have made a ton. However, the site is now worth nothing. Not saying FB is like that but these social sites are very much a perception thing amongst its users.
The best social site out there is LNKD. If FB jobs never gains traction, which I don't think it will, then LNKD should continue to do fine. However, the threat of a FB jobs section gaining traction could very well hit LNKD and if this happens it would be a great buy down around $50 to $60
DeleteGutsy call 2nd - good luck. Will be a big mover one way or another I'd bet.
DeleteRe FB, the web site, my youngest daughter - the one who trashed Ugg's - is saying FB is becoming unpopular well. Twitter is the "in" thing still. Maybe it's because 3 of her 4 grandparents are on FB now. Instagram is also an "in" thing.
A few things-
Delete1. FB is just as big to men as women in the under 30 crowd. 30+ your probably right that it is scewed to women.
2. FB will not take over LNKD.....the last thing I want an employer/employee seeing is my personal stuff. I don't friend work relationships on FB and vice versa.
3. FB in order to succeed will need to find more and better ways to monetize the future of the company or it will die out. I think most people pay zero attention to any ads generated there now.
MET - Earnings Aug 1st. On Balance Volume on weekly doesn't exactly seem bullish but RSI(7) on daily and weekly turned up through 30, anyone here long this thing? I need to stop F'n around and get long something if this market isn't gonna crash already.
ReplyDeleteWDC - As homework, I'll be looking this chart over closely for clues, I'm sure they're there somewhere.
Gold - Seems like today's volume is high again, similar to every prior test of upper trend line. Distribution by strong hands?
ReplyDeleteI like to think so....:)
DeleteEurope - Okay, I see what 's going on now, the eurozone politicians are going on vacation and so told the market they'd fix everything once they return ("believe me")...
ReplyDeletephew...i was getting worried. so everything is ok?
DeleteCould be everything's "fine" as long as they remain on vacation, it's when they return our signal to run for cover is given?
DeleteCP, I'm long MET at $31.72 from last fall. In hindsight, it would have been to sell when it got back towards $40 and buy back in now.
ReplyDeleteMET has got to be one of the cheapest stocks in the S&P 500 with P/E = 5.3 and P/B =5.2. Their stock is down for 2 main reasons:
1. The Fed won't let them raise their dividend even though they have $4 billion of excess capital because MET owns a bank which they are selling to GE (2% of business) and found MET to not have excess capital on the bank stress test (none of the insurers who own banks passed).
2. People are worried about what low long term rates do to a company like MET, even though they have done a very good job of hedging the interest rate risk out of the business.
I would not be surprised to see a good move upwards on earnings - the lifeco's which have released earnings so far have been generally good and the market has usually moved up on these. Plus, probably in September, the MET bank will be sold and MET should be able to raise dividends and share buybucks for a total of about $7 billion on a $30 billion market cap.
Thanks for sharing. Not bad, you've been green for a good majority of that time.
DeleteDoes look cheap, P/FCF is 3 book $55... I figure a close pushing $30 today might do it for me.
WDC - Sign all today's newcomers up for bagholder status.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - There, $2.88 covers 50% of Tuesday's last candle and all of yesterday's uncovered candles.
"Gold - Seems like today's volume is high again, similar to every prior test of upper trend line. Distribution by strong hands?"
ReplyDeleteAccording to Yahoo finance, today's volume in GLD is 6,182,130 so far, while the avg. volume is 10,191,800. The volume has been very low in GLD and SLV for the whole of July -- that's what happens when a sector is completely despised and forgotten. When the new long-term uptrend starts, the volume will gradually pick up, since MANY people are waiting to jump in once the price establishes an uptrend.
Sorry, I should've done a better job of documenting my datasource, from the $gold chart as opposed to the ETF that trades in US:
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p04788039456
And that was yesterday's volume and price as well, proof my "facts" should always be questioned. ;)
DeleteHmm....
ReplyDeleteChris Puplava:
"Nearly 50% of the total outstanding debt of the world's top 10 debtor nations needs to be rolled over by the end of 2015."
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/global-qe-coming-let-gold-mania-begin
I also think TRIP has one of the best locks on it's users of the social sites in addition to LNKD. If they can monetize this better while maintaining their image as the place to go for travel info, could do really well.
ReplyDeleteSQNM - Wow, $3.36 was a downside target I was looking at last week before entering NSPH
ReplyDeleteNice to see NSPH come back. Strong finish after some profit taking on the 20% move over the past 2 days. Lets see if this rebound sticks.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - I am now a stockholder. Managed to get in at $2.86 earlier today.
ReplyDeleteDECK up huge after hours.
ReplyDeleteOh of course! ;)
DeleteOversold on weekly RSI, MACD about to turn north, RSI buy signal ondaily, MACD higher high on daily, new 52wk low today, Fairly high volume day, as well.
DeleteAmazing, the new 42wk low.....
MET - Looks like there's been an increase in insider ownership, ref:Finviz
ReplyDeleteLooks like Paulson might have finally bailed on NG?
ReplyDeleteIs AMZN expensive?
ReplyDeleteno way man. it made $0.01!
Deleteseriously, though they are killing it with their marketplace. i still think GOOG has a huge opportunity to crush them by creating their own marketplace but that may not be their strategy.
Deleteon the FB con call, ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
ReplyDeletenice pop in INFA AH
nice trade on INFA
DeleteHope it sticks. Only a couple thousand shares.
DeleteFIO looks like a potential huge mover with their earnings coming up on 8/9/12. I don't know what the options are priced at but I would bet that a straddle would work out well.
ReplyDeleteJB - Do you know anything about FIO? Looks very interesting to me.
ReplyDeleteI talked to my buddy that knows the CEO and a couple of other guys but other than saying it was a "solid" co he didn't give me any info that would help me make an investment decision
DeleteI wouldn't be surprised if TIF buys out NILE. I used NILE to buy my wife's engagement ring and wedding band. The site was far better than any other site I looked at. I still think there's a lot of value with this brand.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Downgraded by BOAML, 12mo target reduced to $3.50
ReplyDelete"We are downgrading General Moly, Inc. (GMO) to Underperform from Neutral
and have reduced our PO to $3.50 from $4.10 on increased permitting and
financing risks, as well as higher capex. These factors reduced our NAV by 7%
and P/NAV target multiple to 0.5x (was 0.55x). We expect the next catalyst for
GMO’s stock will be a capex update for its Mt Hope project. We have increased
our Mt Hope capex to $1.35 bn from $1.25 bn, expecting capex to come in 17%
above GMO’s last estimate of $1.15 bn (as of November 2009), driving a $200
mn capex financing shortfall, thereby increasing financing risk. In addition, recent
permitting and financing delays, coupled with increased permitting/financing
pushes out our forecasted Mt Hope production start date by two quarters to
3Q15."
new post
ReplyDelete