Friday, July 27, 2012

07/27/12 Enter The Dragon

Last Friday it was all talk. Will be at least 50% long China/HK by market close today via FXI and ICHKX. http://www.gafunds.com/funds_china_hong_kong.asp

98 comments:

  1. David - CSTR strikes me as very cheap. It looks like the majority of their shortfall was due to expenses to revamp the Blockbuster kiosks they purchased from NCR. While Apple TV and smart TVs in general are a looming threat, I think the user experience with DVDs is far better than with streaming. I think streaming will continue to be a niche market because of the average consumer's lack of technical know-ho and because of the choppy connection from time to time. There's nothing more annoying (ok well maybe there is but you get the point) than watching a movie that constantly freezes and I think there is a perception that this is what you deal with when you are streaming movies.

    I'm curious to see what Apple TV looks like though. I think most people have upgraded to their new flat screen TVs and are probably happy with the viewing quality. Apple TV would have to be a blockbuster product to get a whole new spending cycle to start with TVs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The big win for TV streaming is when these new high-speed cable internet services come down in price. At 300 Mbps, streaming would be excellent and the need to download to get high-def TV would go away, but at the current price of $300 per month, this is not a threat to the buck a DVD customer.

      Delete
    2. BB - I guess that's the point...at some point that does happen...so when does CSTR get hit by it? I still think there are better trade opps out there.

      Delete
  2. Having said that there are other stocks I like more. I still think NOK gets to $3.50 which is a 75% gain from here. I also think FIO could be a good trade, although earnings in 2 weeks make it a crap shoot. And of course DMND, FSLR, NSPH...all of these could double.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anyone else think FB is a buy given the increased likelihood Congress approves an online gambling bill? Easiest way for FB to monetize mobile.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. that's an interesting idea but my guess is they shoot down a gambling bill. marijuana and online gambling should be legal to help our budget issues but they won't do it.

      Delete
  4. Followed 2nd into FB...$22.92. Small amount. May add more lower.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Added more at $22.98

      Delete
    2. My thinking on FB: if they did $0.12 last quarter and do about $0.50 to $0.60 this year then the stock is trading at 40 times current earnings. Given they have 950 million users and mobile usage is the fastest growing segment, the fact that they are still trying to figure out how to monetize mobile is a positive. If they can do $0.50- $0.60 in EPS while not really capitalizing on mobile then what will they earn when they start capitalizing on it? What if they can develop a platform similar to Google where they have companies paying on a cost per click basis for ads? The cost structure in FB is very low...if they can double revs on the back of monetizing global then EPS will skyrocket.

      Delete
  5. Picked up a little more FB at $22.48...legging into it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bought a little more at $22.33 then it spiked on huge vol

      Delete
  6. If you believe the commodity bull that started in 2001 has not ended, we are at a good point to make purchases. Many of the majors (POT, ABX, TCK) are at metrics which are the lowest since 2000. Juniors are even cheaper.

    The big question is whether the commodity bull is over or not. For example, TCK had ROE's of over 17% per year the last 10 years, but for the 13 years before that, their ROE's averaged under 4%. If commodity prices drop, which the stocks are saying they might, there is still a lot of downside in these to get them to reflect these lower prices.

    I'm personally perplexed as to what way things go from here. I'm comfortable owning the energy stocks as I see energy demand continuing to grow around the world, but the rest am I not sure.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I still think LCC is a good way to hedge potentially lower oil prices. They earned $300 Million last quarter. The entire company is only worth 6 times that.

      Delete
  7. I'm selling 1/2 of my INFA here at $33, didn't expect a pop like this, moving my stop up to breakeven and I'll hold the rest until they get picked up by IBM or HPQ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nice dude. Your idea re on line gambling is really interesting.

      Delete
    2. that bitch, INFA, owes me a few $$$...lol

      Some of the more obtuse poker sites have been speculating that there really could be some movement on the internet gambling bill this year, and FB would be right in the mix (I could see them license their "platform" to some of the large gaming co's), but as TOF pointed out it would be a longshot.

      moved the INFA proceeds into FB, following second and tof.

      Delete
  8. CSTR finally did fill that gap. I'd lost track of that one. Wow.

    ReplyDelete
  9. NSPH> Flyer @ 3.06...
    ZNGA> Flyer @ 3.07...

    ReplyDelete
  10. dudes - FSLR reports on 8/1/12 (next wed). this will be a mammoth mover. i expect it to move up 30 to 50%.

    ReplyDelete
  11. You know, I really need to stop watching the freaking tape, and stick to my 'call' here. I think China kicks ass over the next few months, with or without explicit action by Beijing. It may even kick ass the next 1-2 years.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I also think FB is a 'buy' here.

    ReplyDelete
  13. In addition, I'm just freaking tired of day trading. I'm putting the port on auto-pilot as of EOD, and will try to have a little faith in my calls.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Predictions as of market close Friday, August 31:

      (a) DJIA 13500+
      (b) SPX 1420+
      (c) FB 30+
      (d) ZNGA/NSPH 4+
      (e) FXI 37+

      If not, then I'll roll it over to Friday, September 28.

      Word, bro.

      Delete
    2. I like it. Longer term thinking is what is needed to make bigger gains. No one denies that there are issues with the economy but the market isn't the economy. Earnings are still ok and definitely high enough to support much higher prices in the market if people get a little more optimistic. The pessimism has suppressed stocks enough that there is far less downside risk. And you can make the case for a ton of stocks being cheap.

      Delete
    3. The problem with sticking with longer term trades is we see gains evaporate in an instant across the board. NSPH is back down to even. FSLR is all over the place. Had a gain in AAPL? Tough luck.

      Look at the trading in DECK. My friend owns it. He bought it at $42 and watched it go to $49. I told him to sell at $46. He was laughing at me when it was at $49. Two days ago he said I was right. Last night he said...see I told you so. I told him to sell. This morning he just sent me an email to remind him to sell at $49. I was like I told you twice. Anyway, how the hell can you have the stomach to stay long for a longer term in a period like this? It takes a lot of patience.

      Delete
  14. DECK - Perhaps Uggs really have lost their appeal...

    ReplyDelete
  15. NSPH - Re-entered my $2.56 bid.

    Thinking of JJG or CORN

    ReplyDelete
  16. CSTR - Will watch this one carefully for a few days.

    ReplyDelete
  17. 2nd - If China does surprise to the upside, so should base metals and commodities in general?

    They've slowed mining acquisitions considerably in the past several months, although Cnooc did make that offer on the Canadian oil producer, $15B if I iirc?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. NXY - although NY Senator Schumacher is saying the US should block (10% of NXY production in the US) to gain access for US to sell to China. Don't own NXY, and Canada seems willing to let go through, but Schumacher is a tough foe.

      Delete
  18. $USD - Okay, so when does this one revert back into rally mode, today?

    It just bounced off the EMA32 daily and EMA8 weekly this morning.

    ReplyDelete
  19. CP/tof> It wouldn't surprise me to see China + US announce separate QE measures in the next week or two. Europe? Everyone knows they're ----ed regardless of what they do- but the ECB seems to have stemmed the apocalyptic scenario for now. If the ECB eases as promised, then the entire concerted program should jack things up, until it doesn't.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Europe is going through a long painful restructuring to make them more competitive. Canada had to do the same thing when we signed the Free Trade Agreement with the US. More progressive countries like Ireland are further down this path and are getting better - they issued their own bonds this week at reasonable rates without ECB help. Spain, Italy, Greece - they still need to do a lot of work, but, even though people protest in the streets, governments know it has to be done or countries like Greece will go back to living on $11K per year in 2000 instead of the current $35K.

      Delete
    2. What Europe needs to do is get rates down for these countries to buy them time to restructure without letting the pressure off to do so. This will be a long process, but would work.

      Delete
    3. US/China QE measures - Such a move would exert additional downside pressure on Europe/escalate their "growing" pain? Or would it serve to lower their rates?

      Whatever happens, I agree euro rates might be the goal?

      Delete
    4. What odds do you give this of 1- happening, 2- working?

      Delete
    5. Agreed on euro rates. Do US/China QE enable or hinder, this task?

      Delete
  20. SDS - Somehow I'm getting the vibe

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't do it man, don't do it!

      Delete
    2. Pz got the vibes and is lucky not to be HIV+.

      Delete
    3. Back on the Hag @ 15.21

      Selling my PDS, TBT and MUX is close enought to HIV +...at least they were gains

      Delete
    4. no mas. off the sds @15.02. No stock holdings.....back to cash in trade account. Poor planning luckily only small loss in SDS and big oppurtunity loss is liveable

      Delete
  21. PXP was the absolute best E&P play off the dbl bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  22. AMZN up 5% on, what,... we might make .02 next Q?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AMZN spends money to invest in the future, reports $0.01 EPS and trades at 100+ p/e, investors say Bezos is a genius.
      FB spends money to invest in the future, reports $0.12 EPS and trades at 40 p/e, investors say FB is a fad.

      Go figure.

      Delete
    2. No chit.

      All right ladies. Carry on.

      Delete
  23. I believe the US Fed has already 'telegraphed' QE in the form of recent speeches by governors, as well as the release of minutes from the last meeting.

    China has also 'telegraphed' its use of further stimulus measures.

    And yesterday, Draghi issued his famous 'whatever it takes.' Of course, he's been saying some version of that for months. But this time he added 'Believe me, it will be enough.' Alright, so that sounds alot like a junkie saying it's his last time. But I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt for now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To me that's exactly it, all talk and no action. Currently market rising on a warm-fuzzy cloud, prices it all in, and then what happens once the rumor becomes reality? Of course the net result will depended on what becomes the reality.

      I can't see the future any better than you, but market has momo today!

      Delete
  24. NOK - Three straight days of gains now, does DROID(is NOK even into DROID picture?) actually have a larger market share than AAPL?

    AMZN - Is this reader OS DROID based?

    I heard somewhere DROID is competitive with AAPL smartphone, I think, not sure if true.

    ReplyDelete
  25. PBR - Still can't recapture $20, I think there's something seriously wrong with this one.

    GGB - Here's a stock that actually moves with the market.

    ReplyDelete
  26. I kind of having a feeling that FB is going to close flat or up. Dumb I know.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'll put down the crack pipe now.

      on my watch list I've seen FSLR, DECK, INVN, PEIX each with 20%+ pops over the past few weeks. I think FIO and FSLR do the same. FSLR i have a little more confidence in for some odd reason.

      Delete
  27. We are still nicely in the up-channel since the June 4th lows. Since March, 2009, once we establish an up-channel, they tend to run for a long time and it has broken up past previous highs. If this scenario holds, the current uptrend should continue at least another 10% higher to SPY 150.

    ReplyDelete
  28. SQNM - Ouch, not going well for this one.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The San Diego company said Thursday after markets closed that it lost $29.6 million, or 26 cents per share, in the three months that ended June 30. That compares with a loss of $20.9 million, or 21 cents per share, in last year's quarter.

      Revenue jumped 37 percent to $18.2 million, and the company's operating expenses also climbed more than 17 percent to $35.1 million.

      Delete
    2. how many tests did they do?

      Delete
  29. I think a really good strategy on getting long FSLR is buying a break below $13.8. They will try to flush it out and then rip it higher. Just like they did with NOK last week.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Is it me or do i keep seeing a big bid on NSPH pop up?

    ReplyDelete
  31. SQNM - Transcript: Upwards of 20,000 tests? looking to see how machine sales went yet...

    "We’ve continued to build on our positive first quarter results and I am pleased to report that the adoption rate of Sequenom’s CMM’s MaterniT21 PLUS LDT has continued to exceed our expectations. We ended the second quarter of 2012 with over 20,000 MaterniT21 PLUS samples accessioned since launching the testing service in October of last year. On the basis of this excellent uptake, we have upwardly revised our internal goal of invoicing a minimum of 40,000 MaterniT21 PLUS tests to 50,000 tests for 2012. This is double our original goal of invoicing 25,000 tests in 2012 as announced in January of this year. In the second quarter alone, more than 13,000 MaterniT21 PLUS samples were accessioned. Nearly three times the volume of samples accessioned in the first quarter of this year."

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/755421-sequenom-s-ceo-discusses-q2-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. not bad but i was originally hoping for a faster uptake. they need to be doing 25k tests per quarter to trend toward profitability.

      Delete
    2. Concerning profitability and potential for dilution:

      "David Ferreiro – Oppenheimer & Co.

      Great. And then just one question for Paul. I’m sorry if you’ve already said this on cash. Do you still believe that what you have in hand right now is enough to get you guys to profitability?

      Paul Maier

      Well, we have never said when we would achieve profitability and we’re very careful about not giving specific guidance on that. I think to achieve profitability there are a lot of variables and the timing of the ramp raid and the timing of getting contracts in place and the reimbursement pace, all of those things affect the timing and whether or not we continue to invest in additional R&D initiatives. We’ve already told you about the investments we’re making in the sales force expansion and the facility expansion. So I think it is reasonable to expect the company will finance again before it reaches profitability. But in terms of where we are right now we’re comfortable that we have a strong cash position and we do expect as we’ve seen recently the cash receipts from our MaterniT21 plus test to continue to accelerate."

      Delete
    3. And concerning uptake, they pointed out that results this Q had some impact from holiday period.

      So I pledge the 5th.... and note that pps eventually tells the real story. ;)

      Delete
    4. from a friend that is a recruiter in pharma here in san diego:
      "their operations are robustly growing, they are opening up new labs in RTP, NC and they have a ton jobs planned out right now...a big push in biz. developemtn and sales op's..
      Even more interesting is they have partnered up wtih Illumina on a joint venture, wouldn't be surprised if ILLUMINA gobbels them up."

      Delete
  32. Guy on CNBC showing how YTD market is best YTD June since 2003 - wow, shocking given how people are talking, but this really is what we want - a market that pushes higher without getting a whole lot of people on board, so they will have to buy later and push it up higher.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yep. that's what i mentioned last week. the hedge funds and institutions that have been sitting on the sideline have got to be pretty anxious here. the longer we edge higher the higher the odds that the market just launches to 1,450 to 1,500.

      Delete
    2. having said all of this...the pattern has been to sell the slightly higher highs and buy the slightly higher lows. this could be a sell the news type thing, yet again.

      Delete
  33. 2nd - did you see your boy Hulbert's latest take on FB?

    ReplyDelete
  34. Sold my FB at $23.71.

    ReplyDelete
  35. I'm telling ya, if NSPH doesn't close green today my heads going to explode. It's really that simple.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Christ...TLM is up 7%. Sheesh...

      Delete
    2. for what it's worth my friend who is easily the most hot headed guy i've ever met and the worst at timing when it comes to the market (goes hand in hand) just bought NSPH at $3.04. so we could be in for a rough patch. he also told me he just bought goog at $630. i recommended he buy NSPH at $2.6 and GOOG at $570 but he was too scared to buy cuz he said everything was going to hell.

      a week or two ago he called me and asked if he should short JCP when it was under $20 and he said he was pissed he missed the boat on ARNA and was wondering if i thought he should buy (when it was at $11.50). this is the same guy that bought QCOM literally at the top of the market in 2000. i'm dead serious. you can't make this shit up.

      Delete
    3. To his credit he did buy BIDU the other day at $115...i just wonder if he sold.

      Delete
    4. He should become a deep value investor like me than.

      Delete
    5. he needs to just stay far away from the stock market.

      Delete
  36. i've had CNBC for a good portion of the day for the first time in a while. how many f*cking times do we have to hear the same argument about how FB is screwed because its hard to monetize mobile?

    ReplyDelete
  37. Europe and China must really in bad shape for the market to rally like it has...

    ReplyDelete
  38. I wonder if the Chick Fil A's comment about gay marriage inviting God's judgment invited God's judgment in a different way:
    http://www.businessinsider.com/chick-fil-as-head-of-pr-has-died-of-a-heart-attack-2012-7

    Article on President's gay marriage comments:
    http://news.yahoo.com/chick-fil-president-gay-marriage-inviting-god-judgment-154602388.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He must really have let the subject get to him too much for his own good. Hyperventilating can be hazardous.

      Delete
  39. I wanna short now more than earlier... Tell me either:

    1) Something changed or
    2) We've been lied to

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We've been lied to about something changing.

      Delete
    2. LOL, now that's a great answer! ;) Everything I say is a lie.....

      Delete
  40. Re FB> Offed the entire supply @ 23.8x. Why?

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/07/27/facebook%e2%80%99s-lockup-problem/

    1.88 billion (that's Billion) available for sale August 16? I just won't sleep well with that hanging over my head.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When you guys finish ROFLYAs off, feel free to comment.

      Delete
    2. 2nd - I heard about that as well. None of us except maybe BB can say we haven't changed our minds on a long term hold in the same day.

      Delete
  41. No wonder S&P rallied this week -- the percentage of bull-bear spread in last Thursday's AAII survey was the lowest since 2010.

    No wonder SLV and GLD rallied this week -- the COT report that just came out showed that the net long speculative position in gold futures was smaller than during the December 11 low AND during the May 15 low. The net long speculative position in silver futures was smaller than the one observed last week, which in turn was lower than the one observed during the December 11 low. So we still have a LONG way to rally in GLD and SLV (I would guess the same thing is true for S&P, since the bull-bear spread in this Thursday's AAII survey was 15 points in favor of bears, while the market tops are marked by such spreads in favor of bulls).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The wonder rally didn't do one heck of a lot for my trading account, how about yours?

      Delete
  42. SQNM - Short attack alert! "Yeah, it's reasonable to anticipate further dilution"

    At least this time it wasn't Hicks delivering the news, extending further validity to the concern. A lower share price should provide sufficient cement for bringing forward the inevitable?

    ReplyDelete