Saturday, August 11, 2012
8/11/12 Defying Logic-Defying Market Moves=Death-Defying Feat
We all know it. Illogical price movements are a hallmark of the market, and attempting to trade against them is a death wish. But why is that?
It's probably because homo sapiens are not known for rational behavior.
Me and Mrs. Jones
We got a thing goin'on
We both know that it's wrong
But it's much too strong
To let it go now
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As always, very interesting thoughts from John Mauldin on what the future holds for Europe:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2012/08/11/and-then-there-is-disaster-c.aspx
What implications should we make from this? Buy gold because more money will be created soon in Europe, or sell gold because USD index will keep going up for a long time (since EUR is the main currency against which USD is valued)?
i think Mauldin and all of these other guys are way too smart for their own good.
Delete"Don't worry, be happy"
Deleteor
"Should I stay or should I go now?"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqH21LEmfbQ
We can be certain market wants to fool all of the people most of the time.
Kinda interesting tidbits from this weekend. Petaluma Little league has made it to the LL World Series next week in La. One of Paul Ryan's cousin's is Patricia's brother's best friend. I've met Paul at a few family parties.
ReplyDeleteThat's still five degrees of separation, dude.
DeleteHun?
Deletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_degrees_of_separation
DeleteHussman is quite good at coming up with the right phrases- in this case, 'suspended animation' aptly describes the state of the markets as we await September decisions by the Fed/ECB.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120813.htm
MDW- http://www.briefing.com/Investor/PopupPages/ArticlePopup.aspx?ArticleId=IN20120813074622MDW
ReplyDeleteComments?
MY knee-jerk response concerns Barrick, didn't realize these guys were involved with MDW.
DeleteI'm not sure Barrick can be trusted?
Good point. I was aware of the Barrick connection though.
Delete1406 - Bulls need to push this thing over this resistance level.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/options-trading-explodes-bearish-treasury-180839995.html
ReplyDeleteIs it possible, after years of top-calling by Cara, Kass, Gross, and who knows how many thousands of other market pundits, we now finally have the TOG in TBT?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/794411-the-bond-message-gets-louder?source=yahoo
DeleteDunno, I've got an GTC bid on TBF @ $27.92
Deletejust a heads up that i sold my DMND this morning at the open. i'm sure in hindsight it will be a bad move but i wanted to put a little more to use on SVNT, which I bought at $0.86, $0.88, and $0.90 this morning.
ReplyDeletestill holding NOK for some odd reason. i just think it's heading higher over time.
ReplyDeleteYou back?
Deleteyeah got back later Sat night. Fun trip man. we stayed at the red rock casino, about 12 miles off the strip. great place for a family. huge pool, 4 or 5 restaurants, great buffet, fast food joints, arcade, kids play room, movie theaters, bowling lanes. that slot play i won on the first day covered about 75% of the trip. I don't think I can make fun of slots or slot players anymore.
DeleteCool. Yeah, they've really figured out that families need to be taken care of. We had a blast in Reno.
DeleteLooks like a loser day. If you guys have time take a look at 2 tiny energy plays. ZAZA AXAS.
Sure you can. I know people who have married lawyers, and still make fun of lawyers.
Deleteha good point 2nd.
Deletecrap...the kiss of death on SVNT. there's a yahoo message board poster that i've followed over the years only because he is a momo trader and literally buys that top of about 90% of the momentum trades out there. he's pumping SVNT.
ReplyDeleteLOL, even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in awhile(an old gambling term).
DeleteGGN - This one pays a handsome dividend, might be a good play on gold in case of a pullback or potential waterfall event?
ReplyDelete1397 is sideways action.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - I'm trying to get back in today @ $2.89
ReplyDeleteCP - Something tells me it drops to $2.3
DeleteDBB - Is it an upside indicator if base metals can't find a bid?
ReplyDeleteMark - I think we're getting close to a short term top. I think we still get one final surge higher and then we drop hard into the election. I think it's best to get out of any market sensitive stocks or at least have an exit strategy in mind because lower prices could be coming. I'm thinking we pull back to 1,320ish but it could always be more than that.
ReplyDeletelooks like OT is looking for a move to 1,440ish followed by a swoon to 1,270ish...somewhat similar to what we're thinking here:
Deletehttp://www.objectivetrader.com/2012/08/pattern-scenario-1-with-targets.html
http://www.objectivetrader.com/2012/08/aaple-short-the-trade.html
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Okay, changed my bid on this one to $2.31, gimme a scary pullback to take advantage of!
ReplyDeleteDang my head's pounding today, need some fresh outdoor air and sunshine...
F - Dropping my bid on this one by a buck to $7.95 in keeping with the blind squirrel mantra, I don't wanna get caught paying too much.
$1440 - Will go short there.
http://www.stockpickr.com/5-stocks-poised-breakouts.html-14?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
ReplyDeleteDavid - Your AUMN is on this list.
Metals pulling a fakeout breakout, SOSDD. Coiled right to the end of pennant and broke to upside Friday, classic fakout action.
DeleteOkay, so maybe I'll be proven wrong and contrary to common logic the euro really is on the mend, LOL!
SWC - I'm sure glad to have sold this one Friday at a 0.21/share gain even though I only got $9.36 for it. With that, I can pay the electric bill and buy a bag of nuts.
ReplyDeleteMetals look weaker than I'd anticipated, stories of warehouses stacked to the rafters must be close to true as producer profits still seem to be trending down along with prices.
Free at last, free at last, gimme another washout! ;)
A bag of nuts? For the blind squirrel?
DeleteSold half of the SVNT at $0.95-0.96
ReplyDeleteNice man.
Deletesold it all at $0.94 to $0.95.
DeleteNSPH- http://vitals.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/13/13149494-surviving-sepsis-new-device-speeds-id-of-dangerous-bacteria
ReplyDeletedude - i JUST read that. 200 units since the FDA clearance!?!? f*ck me that's huge.
Deletei'm reaching out to the CEO to see if that's a misquote.
DeleteI know. Crazy, so just in case I sold the shares I bought @ 2.63 just now for 3.26.
DeleteBTW, I placed a market order to sell all 15,500 shares and it was taken in ONE ADF trade.
Deleteyeah tons of volume going through. somehow i highly doubt that quote is correct. i bet it's 200 total in place which means another 34 since the quarter end.
Deleteeither way i think my initial guess on this company is right...the blood test clearance makes this a buyout candidate.
DeleteI agree with your take on the 200 number. That was my guess when I read it.
DeleteAdded to NOK at $2.67
ReplyDeleteWaiting for AUMN to drop below $4 so as to deploy the funds I obtained from selling MUX calls on Friday...
ReplyDeleteAnd if AUMN does not drop below $4 during this pullback (well predicted by Geoff), I'll be a happy camper...
DeleteNSPH - Well there goes, proof I'm nuts! ;)
ReplyDeleteI guess ZNGA is the AH's show today.
ReplyDeletethat and STS of course.
DeleteAdded some more NOK at $2.64
ReplyDeleteeven more NOK at $2.6. I believe it bounces to $2.9 in the next day or two.
ReplyDelete"The quote is incorrect in two ways and we are trying to get it corrected. 200 customers in our pipeline, but not orders. Also the number of systems is misleading."
ReplyDeleteCEO, NSPH in an email to me just now.
if i had any balls i would short NSPH right now at 3.16
Delete---- me! I'm the genius who bought NSPH @ 2.89, and sold it @ 2.61.
Deletethat sucks man. $2.6 is an area it has been bouncing off of for a little while now.
DeleteSTS blockbuster earnings of $0.35...however, in looking at the details they had negative taxes (i.e., tax benefit). if you account for 35% tax rate it would have been $0.21 EPS which is still solid, but this is their best quarter. Still they are doing about $0.60 to $0.70 run rate.
ReplyDeletedeclining revs is a negative.
ugh...what a grease ball this guy is:
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2012/08/13/dreams-of-a-wall-street-rock-star/
LOL, by far one of the dumbest and f*cking ugliest dudes on TV.
DeleteToo many 'stories' like that these days. Back in the seventies, that kind of background might have been a bonafide reason to bet on some dude. Now it sounds like a sales pitch to Boomers with less than 50k in their retirement accounts looking for a miracle.
DeleteNSPH - So we discovered today's action was a result of the old same news being misreported and regurgitated, is that it?
ReplyDeleteMan, the lake was busy with boats yesterday, so today I'm feeling motivated enough to begin prepping the jet boat, planning to take it for a spin next week sometime... LOL.
"Bloomberg is reporting that Danske Bank A/S analyst Ilkka Rauvol said Nokia (NOK) may soon offer new shares at a "significant" discount, citing management buying stock, the company's focus on cash generation and increasing costs for restructuring its handset operations."
ReplyDeleteOne of the reasons the company may soon offer new shares at a discount is because management bought stock? Where do they come up with this crap?
Who knows, most likely someone wants in and have requested basher assistance.
DeleteIssuing shares at a discount? Why would they do that when they don't seem to need cash?
Deletesame reason all of these bull sh*t buyout stories come across the wire: someone wants to move the stock.
Deletelet's see goldman's calls over the past 6 months:
*Generational opportunity to buy stocks when S&P was right around 1,400 earlier this year before a 10% drop.
*Nat Gas going to $1 when Nat Gas was at $1.90 and bottoming
*First Solar going to sub $10 when it was at $12
*Time to short the market right around the bottom in June
*Short NOK price target at $1.30 when stock was at $1.80, reiterated again when stock rallied to $2.6 (meanwhile they have been growing their position in NOK: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/nok/institutional-holdings).
the SEC doesn't give a rats ass about any of the little dudes. it's the game we play and we have to find out how to spot the rat
MEOH vs corn vs PEIX - It's interesting how methanol doesn't seem to be in the greater spotlight as a potential substitute for ethanol.
ReplyDeleteCNH - This one though, keeps creeping up slowly. I'm attributing this to a bullish scenario for the Brazilian agricultural industry.
TOF- Thanks for the info on NSPH. Nice to know we had it right. Love to get my shares back cheap.
ReplyDeleteno prob bro. i just request you cover my slots when we all make it to vegas one day.
Deletealthough a craps buy in would work too.
DeleteDude, I'll go to Vegas tomorrow.
DeleteWe've all been living in Vegas since at least 2005.
Delete2nd- Focus group tonight?
DeleteFunny you should ask. I participated in one, but it was at 2 pm in the afternoon.
DeleteRyan- Well it's fair to say the conversation has moved from tax returns to medicare for at least one day.
ReplyDeleteCHD - Keep an eye on this one fellas, might catch it near the 200SMA?
ReplyDeleteLO - This one seems to have put in a low.
ReplyDeleteVEGAS BABY!!!!-- Too funny, I just got this email...
ReplyDeleteNorCal PDP would like to get your feedback and blessing regarding the opportunity for the 98-99 State Team players from your club to participate in the 2013 Vegas Cup on January 18-21. As part of the expansion of the program, this is the first time a PDP team will represent NorCal in a tournament. We believe it is a very important step for the league (PDP) and the players. 18 players will be selected to the travel roster and they will compete in the U15 age bracket for the t ournament. Food and room are free of charge, each player is only responsible for traveling expenses.
JCP - I can't believe this thing's still in the 20's
ReplyDeleteF - I'm guessing nervous nellies were selling yesterday?
ReplyDeleteNOK - Looks like I'm going to have to buy this one soon.
ReplyDeletenasty little pullback the past 3 days.
DeleteI was hoping to get it lower than this, have a stink bid at $2.17 but might have to raise it...
DeleteNothing should surprise me anymore, but NSPH trying again here kinda does.
ReplyDelete1406 is support
ReplyDeleteHere we go, support failed?
DeleteBears jumped onto 1410, let's see if they can keep it under 1406
DeleteGRPN - LOL, KER-PLUNK!
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Are you guys still pretty sure this thing's gonna come back to us?
ReplyDeleteNope, not sure of course, but I'm betting that way.
DeleteCHD - GTC bid on this one at $49
ReplyDeleteI kinda like the following stocks here> KCG, GRPN, YHOO.
ReplyDeleteKCG - That's kinda balsy since WS is gonna BK this so they can take it over free of cost, isn't it?
DeleteYHOO would be my pick of the 3.
Deletemy pick would be YHOO as well.
Deletetof- Are you still long NOK, and do you recommend buying it here?
ReplyDelete2nd - I like the turnaround story in NOK a lot. I'm long with an average of around $2.3. I think it's going to be a bumpy ride...and the past 3 days has been just that, down about 17% from the highs on Thursday. I'm always wary of a false rally like WFR had back in February but when i got in this my estimate was around $4.5 if you summed up the value of all parts of their business and gave each one significant haircuts.
Deletehttp://blogs.wsj.com/tech-europe/2012/07/10/nokia-shares-hit-17-year-low/?mod=yahoo_hs
Delete"Odon de Laporte, who covers Nokia for Cheuvreux, said investors seem to have “lost trust” in Nokia, adding that the company’s third-quarter results are set to be disastrous, given that consumers will refrain from buying Nokia smartphones until the company is in a position to offer devices running the latest Windows software.
Mr. Windsor at Nomura said that few investors were interested in Nokia nowadays. “I get calls [from investors] telling me to give them a call when things start to look brighter for Nokia again, but right now hardly anyone wants to hear about the name,” he said."
this was right around when i started buying NOK at $1.8. i love the quote at the end, that people are asking the broker to call them when things start to look brighter for Nokia. that usually works out just perfectly.
"hi XXX, things are starting to look better at nokia you might want to look at investing in them. they just came out with a really sleek phone that has a 41 megapixel camera, 4G LTE, and allows you to sync up to all of your files on your home computer so you can access them on the go"
"thanks but the stock is up 200% already from the lows, i'll wait until it goes back down to the lows".
Why wouldn't MSFT buy NOK?
DeleteIf you connect the two lows, the line seems to intersect about $1.80, so that's one downside possibility.
DeleteNot saying it's going there, I have no idea, just that a straight line drawn off the two lows intersects.
Not sure why MSFT wouldn't buy them. Maybe they see hardware as too cut throat and want to stick to the software side of things in mobile? but NOK does have about 30k patents and their patents are arguably more valuable than Motorolas were, which were purchased by GOOG for $12.5 Billion. they also have their mapping software (navteq).
Deleteif you're looking at just technicals, then its probably important in the very short term that the stock stays above $2.4 on a close.
the other thing is MSFT is paying nokia $1 Billion to use Windows exclusively...and Nokia gets about $700 Million annually in royalty payments from its patents. i would have to think MSFT has at least considered this possibility. NOK still retains a 20% market share for mobile phones. I'd think MSFT would want to tap into that and get all of the other assets on NOK's books.
DeleteMSFT needs a major revamp IMO, windows is getting old-hat. At least they need to rename windows, sheesh! Gates has already acknowledged MSFT is behind the curve on the smartphone opportunity.
DeleteThen there's INTC, internally they were talking about it over a decade ago, I know they had plans and wanted in then. I think they were thinking more in terms of hardware at the time but plans do change, and the APPL phone still hadn't been released, iirc.
TBF - Seems to be running, looks like bears are losing the battle.
ReplyDeleteIncredible, my prognosis for Europe doesn't support growth, revenues aren't up, just profits as a result of continued trimming the fat.
I know I've got something wrong, what am I missing here?
I think there's a reasonable chance that bond yields have finally peaked. I wonder if that last run to 1.44% on the 10-year was not the blow-off bottom.
DeleteThere is no doubt in my mind that government bond rates are too low and have to go up. I'd say you need continued bad news to keep them down here and things seem to have calmed down and are now on the slow mend, so rates should rise naturally.
If TBT was a stock, I'd say I like that chart and take a good look at the fundamentals of it to see if it was worth buying.
HIG - How about this old pig?
ReplyDeleteIf you want to bottom fish HIG here, you probably could. There's probably a lot of value to be unleashed and Paulson is on top of things. Catch here is things may be worse than they are letting on or may take a long time to get this mess cleaned up.
DeleteYou'll probably do well, but I'm personally staying away.
DMND may have successfully tested the 50 DMA...I bought back in at $18.10 to $18.2
ReplyDeleteAny idea when DMND plans to release results of restated financial stmts?
Deleteno idea...i'm keeping any position size in this pretty small just because of the risks which is probably dumb.
DeleteKass on CNBC Fast Money at lunch saying the top for the year for the market is in (http://www.thestreet.com/story/11663327/1/dreaded-triple-top-approaching.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)
ReplyDeleteGetting quite a bit of agreement on the show. Only real disagreement was from a guy saying more free money from US and Europe could propell prices higher.
A lot of people appear to be looking for at least a short term top in short order - I'm starting to think that the market may confound everyone and continue up in a fairly orderly fashion. Still seeing a lot of positive news out of the companies I follow and valuations are still good.
If I had to guess I would say we peak at around 1,440ish. Maybe one last lurch forward. I think we pull back but we rip higher to 1,500 around New Years.
Deleteso two steps forward and one step back, courtesy of paula abdul
Delete"more free money from US and Europe could propell prices higher."
DeleteUnless of course the grand plan involves something entirely different, such as for instance, slowing global growth in an effort to rescue the planet from certain man-made destruction? In that case, continued slowdown should be anticipated in most respects, no?
Us common folk will be among the last to learn the truth. Are politicians public servants? I believe not, politicians can never admit harsh truths b/c to do so is completely opposed to their ingrained self-serving principles. At the very least in a worst case scenario, they will attempt to avoid creating panic.
AIG - Closed the gap down, time to sell apparently.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - This one needs to hang onto $3, else it comes back to us.
ReplyDeleteI just spoke with a representative from PNPFF and he confirmed that their NAV is the total market value of the shares of all companies they are holding minus the value of their debt (which is around 25% of their assets). So if they were to liquidate EVERYTHING right now and pay out their debts, investors will be left with around $2/share now. He said that it is not unusual for a holding company (closed end fund) to trade at a discount, but the current discount is indeed extreme and reflects the EXTREMELY bearish attitude of investors about the future. When investors are bullish, the rep said their discount usually turns into a premium. So, just as I thought, PNPFF can double simply upon a change in investor sentiment, and THEN double or triple again when their actual NAV doubles or triples.
ReplyDeleteThat's pretty FUBAR, seems like PNPFF should liquidate and unlock the value.
DeleteJNPR - Taking a nice dive.
ReplyDeleteNice little move for VELT off earnings.
ReplyDeleteSold DEEZ Nuts (DMND) at $17.85. no conviction.
ReplyDelete"Coal is more dangerous than terrorists"
ReplyDeleteI find this statement sensationalistic, my sense is coal is done for as a result of environmental damage (global warming).
Unless multiple someone's are lying to us?
Thus, where's the validity in leveraging this subject for political means, it's really rather insulting to voter intelligence when a politician says one thing but does another.
Who's to trust, the scientific evidence supposedly doesn't support expanding use of coal.
Oh please Romney, who could possibly in good faith vote for that?
BB - I still think the best move if you want to play the ups and downs is to absolutely NOT short anything, but rather wait for a drop in prices if we get a pullback. I think the bull market continues on and upward in a sloppy fashion. There's a decent chance the bond market bubble has popped and if that's the case money will gravitate toward equities. I personally have little interest in shorting anything.
ReplyDeleteThere are multiple negative divergences going on with TLT:
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p88411205580
- OBV not confirming latest move higher
- MACD negative divergence, i.e., not confirming latest move higher
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p24103881552
- Full Stochastics and MACD show negative crossovers
Beaten down blue chips are my play of choice but most equities should do well if this is indeed the end of the bond bull longer term.
Please just shot me.
ReplyDeleteWell put! ;)
DeleteWhat's up.
DeleteBoredom.
DeleteNOK - $2.51 Ah yes, of course...
ReplyDelete1402 - Now bears are winning...
ReplyDeleteMy uneducated observation concludes buyers are becoming exhausted...
ReplyDeleteGGB - Giving up the ghost...
ReplyDeleteEWZ - Off the cliff...
ReplyDelete