Wednesday, August 1, 2012
8/1/12 Garden Party
You all know how much I enjoy making predictions. Here's my 24-hour prognostication, based on today's action:
(a) Weak hands not taken out by the sharp drop following the Fed announcement were likely successfully taken out by the sharp drop at the close.
(b) Shorts were caught short following FOMC.
(c) Sometime after the close of after-hours trading, but prior to Thursday's pre-market session, the ECB will 'surprise.' The resulting gap up will create a moat that deters all but the most intrepid of bulls.
Here's my 4-week prognostication.
(d) We fly the entire month of August.
No one recognized me, I didn't sound the same
You see, you can't please everyone, so you've got to please yourself
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We could make a case for further gains based on the absence of post-FOMC selling. In this case, the absence of selling is almost palpable- it almost feels like there are no sellers left to take down. How many gun fights can you have in a deserted town?
ReplyDeleteWhereas once we get to 1450, I guarantee crowded sidewalks and plenty of sellers.
DeleteI think we need to revisit the rising 200SMA, but that's probably way too obvious and anticipated.
DeleteThe torch was firmly handed to the ECB today you might say, so now the market is calling the bluff?
BTW, did you guys catch wind that Draghi seemed to be back-peddling last night? I heard he was trying to downplay his bold promise, source unknown, hearsay only.
There will be contracts out to nail his --- if he does. He's no idiot.
DeleteI'm probably the only guy in America who hasn't watched even a one-minute clip of Olympics coverage. Everything I 'know' has been gleaned from glimpses of headlines and photos.
ReplyDeleteThe woman's gymnastics apparel is a sight for sore eyes:
Deletehttp://www.gkelite.com/
Alright, I can't resist. Opened a small (very small) position in KCG @ 7.10.
ReplyDeleteYeah, that's just crazy enough to work out well, reminds me of the CMI dump when MF Global went tits-up.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteGMCR.......
ReplyDeleteInteresting AH's trading. You have a take on it?
Delete2nd - Thanks for the video. I remember the events and performers vividly from my teens. Heady times at that.
ReplyDeleteF - $9.19 or $9.04 close?
ReplyDeleteSYMC - Fire your CEO and the stock will jump!
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Well, that was a higher high...
ReplyDeleteGood lord your chart must be for 5 days only!
DeleteMEOH - At a critical support level with open gaps below.
ReplyDeleteWholly crap. MCP was one of 'those' today. Take a look.
ReplyDeleteREE also.
DeleteAnd just like the flash crash, I guarantee 3.05 is revisited.
DeletePIR
Deletehttp://www.chuys.com/
ReplyDeleteThey IPO'd on 7/23/12. Ticker CHUY
A notch above cheap mexican food. This is one of those companies where I really like the product. I need one of you value guys to take a look and to see what you think about the financials. I like eating there but I normally don't go because the one close to me is always packed.
How come there aren't any prices on the PDF menu? How are the Margs?
Deletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/759771-chuy-s-successful-ipo-debut-despite-chipotle-s-freefall?source=yahoo
DeleteAnd the author posted this in the comments section. I don't agree with the "STYLE" of food comment but I agree with his comment about CHUY being between a restaurant and a fast food place.
" They offer the same style of food. I wouldn't call Chuy a "restaurant" either, where you comfortably sit down for hours. In my eyes it is between a restaurant and a fast food restaurant "
Ah, it's a Fastaurant. Perhaps it's better for Linner then?
DeleteI drink very little so I don't know. It used to be a big happy hour place but now I'm old with kids and I'm lucky just to get out for wings with my buds once a month. I'm typically a Fat Tire drinker those nights. It used to be Honey Brown but it's not a MANLY beer so I had to switch.
Deletesi
DeleteHere's your menu. It's pretty cheap. I went there last week and had the seasoned ground sirloin burrito.
Deletehttp://www.chuys.com/images/assets/menus/Chuys-Tier%201_Main%20MenuWEB.pdf
Deleteand here's a link for the menu
Better get in and back out before management has time to get a big head about how important they are to the entire world and forget all about making decisions on behalf of shareholders, just how many million shares they can grant themselves per month.
DeleteIt didn't take the Zuck long to fall into love with himself...
just read most of Grantham's letter that BB posted a link to. Scary.
ReplyDeleteTwo problems I see with farms
1. It's hard to just invest $10-30k in a farm. You have to take out a loan and you pay fees in the form of taxes and you have to maintain it. I like the idea but there is a holding cost.
2. You may have water today but I agree with his comments on erratic weather. You may not have any water on your farm tomorrow. Farms just don't work very well without water.
"My personal, somewhat arbitrary breakdown of a targeted 30% is to have 15% in forestry and farms, 10% in “stuff in the ground,” and 5% in resource efficiency plays. I will change the mix as I become more comfortable with some of the subsets or as I see exceptional opportunities. I do, though, see farms and forestry as the senior or preferred component, if you will, for the longer term: mining and oil companies benefit a lot from rising prices, but they suffer from the need, as capitalist enterprises, to keep replacing their stock in trade every year and this slowly becomes impossible to do completely. Farms, however, also benefit from rising commodity prices but for them their “stuff
in the ground” is soil, which, if well managed, has fully renewed growing capacity each year, usually even with a modestly rising trend. There is one component of the potential “stuff in the ground” sub portfolio, though, to which I would give a miss: coal and tar sands. This is not primarily because their incredible cost to the environment hurts my conscience; it is because, in my opinion, the odds will steadily grow as climate damage becomes increasingly apparent, that their use will be curtailed."
Someone's going to be paying the property taxes on farmland and I can almost guarantee you those taxes aren't headed down for long, even if the value of the property is/does. Have you noticed your city looking a bit squeezed for cash lately? I'm hearing some cities have cut services drastically in order to continue servicing their debt and pension obligations. Something's gonna give at some point for many of these municipalities, prepare for round 3 of the global financial crash that was allowed to morph into an economic crisis in the name of rescuing the banking industry which created the mess in the first place.
DeleteGovernment has progressed to a self-serving institution, no longer working for the public.
Been following the Stockton bankruptcy as I have stock in muni-insurer Assured Guaranty (AGO).
DeleteWhat a mess they've gotten themselves into! But will be really telling as to what the courts rule as far as who needs to take the hit on debts which cannot be paid - the retirees, the current staff, the bond holders (and bond insurers). Calpers psuhing hard to keep the retirees whole and it is hard to take from retirees, but if they are being overpaid due to poor management, I don't think they will be exempted, similar to when a pension plan goes bust.
MET beat on numbers last, both on core and GAAP with a big gain.
ReplyDeleteOn the call this morning, said they ran through their interest models and the drop in rates since the end of the year will have pretty much no effect on earnings this year or next and less than $0.10 in 2014 - this on a $5.50 trailing EPS.
Thanks for info, I'm still watching this one for an entry. Thought maybe it getting away with the recent close over $30
DeleteOf the 3 big insurers who reported last night, MET was the best, HIG the worst and PRU in the middle. PRU is up this morning, I think a relief rally because people were scared after their big miss last quarter.
DeleteMET has consistently delivered this year and has good earnings and a very cheap valuation. HIG is cheapest, and Paulson is pushing them, but they've still got a lot of issues.
My biggest insurance position is still NWLI which has been making some moves off the bottom, so hopefully starting upwards - they are very cheap, well run, use conservative accounting, but current management just doesn't see the stock price as an issue - longer term though, I'm sure it will be a good winner.
bot more nok right at premarket open at 2.47. i think news is coming on potential sale or ipo of their nsn division which has been a dog
ReplyDeletemore at 2.34
DeleteDrahgi speaking now?
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Focusing on this one too, again, held onto it's gains fairly well yesterday...
ReplyDeletesure looks like another test of the $3.5 area is coming. I'm too focused on NOK right now. Adding small chunks as it goes down.
DeleteFB - Another new low....
ReplyDeleteMET - Nice response so far, she's lookin' good.
ReplyDeleteNSPH- Took the rest off at 3.02. It was a nice little run, but this thing scares me just vibrating around in this area.
ReplyDeleteHolly shit that was close.
DeleteKCG - Hmm... This one's gonna be a ride...
ReplyDeleteMDW has been crashing the last 2 days. You guys see any news?
ReplyDeleteMDW trades so strangely, I gave up attempting to comprehend. Although, this recent selling seems rather consistent with the mining group as an entity and in response to the Eurozone catch-22 (A problematic situation for which the only solution is denied by a circumstance inherent in the problem or by a rule.) theatrics?
DeleteThe POS stock I own, SVNT, is doing well today. I think there is significant upside on this stock for a trade. There are a lot of risks, but they restructured their debt, cut overhead expenses drastically and have enough cash on hand to cover the next 2 years of operations. The stock is down from the $20's to $0.6. Their gout drug, KRYSTEXXA, which received approval about 18 months ago, has had a slower than expected launch; however, revenues have been growing pretty steadily. If they can grow revs to $25 to $30 Million this year I bet this stock trades up to $4. I have about 10% of the port in it which is enough to make a nice boost to the port but not enough to get crushed if they go under.
ReplyDeletejynx...WAS doing well
DeleteSorry for the late start. Busy arranging contracts on Draghi. Also shell-shocked over KCG- offed the position @ 3.65. WTF.
ReplyDeleteRe KGC, here's a funny story. After closing my position @ 3.65, I logged on to a different platform (separate account) and checked the bid/ask for Knight while I was at it. It was @ 7.90! I was ready to call Fido to ask WTF was going on, and whether they would be willing to cancel the order I placed 5 minutes earlier. Turns out I had typed in 'KGC' rather than 'KCG.' Glad I caught it before calling> I would have felt like Draghi.
DeleteThat is funny!
DeleteSure would not want to be the IT guy responsible for giving the go-ahead on the KGC system upgrade - $440 million mistake and maybe kill the company.
DeleteWTF, I typed ' Re KGC' while recounting my own error. I'll bet a shitload of investors wished they'd done the same when opening positions last night.
DeleteDamn, a paltry 1K share bet on FSLR would have paid handsomely.
ReplyDeleteI know you're all wondering. It was 240 shares of KCG, and I took a hit of $830.
ReplyDeleteInteresting in retail-land this morning:
ReplyDeleteARO -30%
ANF -13%
GPS +9%
GES -5%
FSLR up 28%. You guys catching on to the trend in the market lately?
ReplyDeleteTrades kinda like PEIX does, not sure which has the better balance sheet though.
DeleteNSPH - Looks like Piper Jaffray's paycheck has cleared the bank. Perfect timing too, PJ's amyloid levels are much lower than KCG's.
ReplyDeleteWhile I didn't have any FSLR I did enter some investment challenge through Ameritrade last week where you submit a pick for the next week. I chose FSLR and I'm most likely going to win a sweet coffee mug and t-shirt. So I got that going for me.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we might get a washout in the metals over the next week and in the markets. And then all of the central banks come in and support everything and gold and silver rip higher. that would jive with the general theme of having a false breakdown and then turning around on a dime and sprinting higher.
ReplyDeleteIn the case of metals and aside from the headfake rallies, the trend is your friend. ;)
Deletehttp://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=dbb&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
Looks like the run in natty might be over.
ReplyDeleteGMCR - What are the chances this thing runs back to $50
ReplyDeleteMET - Okay, I've got my order placed at $30.76 in case today's opening bar gets retested.
ReplyDeleteI shoulda noticed yesterday's successful 20SMA retest, big clue I guess...
SVM - Got a little pop out of their resource update, it seems. Ore grade holding rock solid.
ReplyDeleteSQNM - Still thinking this one retests $2.55
ReplyDeleteHDSN - Hmm, was that a successful retest of trend line support, or failure? I'm thinking the former.
ReplyDeleteAIG - Ugly H&S pattern
ReplyDeletewow well that was quick. gap fill on nok. added some at 2.2. avg is now 2.21. will add more at next lower gap fill
ReplyDeleteGold/Silver are very liquid:
ReplyDeletehttp://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/gold-and-silver-lessons-from-pawn-stars.html/
Market's getting ugly, market's getting mean.
ReplyDeletein hindsight i should have been reading the message boards on NOK yesterday then i probably would have sold. however, i see this as a great long term turnaround story that will play out over a year or 2. in looking at the message boards today it is a lot more mixed with lots of "i told you so's" which is making me feel more confident. yesterday i was saying i think this trades sideways between 2.2 and 2.5 (give or take) for a couple of days to a couple of weeks. my guess now is a couple of weeks barring a market collapse.
ReplyDeleteSMN - Is this a C&H? Seems handle is too long.
ReplyDeleteDMND is rallying...another in a long line of POS beaten down stocks rallying hard. this is the theme i referred to earlier. here are some POS stocks that have rallied really hard:
ReplyDeleteNat Gas
FSLR
DECK (this one didn't hold)
INVN
GMCR
MITK
NOK
I think DMND is next.
So, once again: why is GDXJ up when S&P is down more than 1% and SLV is down 1%? Are there really no sellers left for the junior miners???
ReplyDeleteMaximum frustration, or change in perception? Note that SVM spends almost no time under $5, for some inexplicable reason.
DeleteWhat's your feeling concerning GDXJ volume these past 2.5 months?
DeleteA GDXJ close better than $19.04 today makes the case for going long ST, less than $19.65 casts doubt on next week.
DeleteMario's a dead man walking. And no one needs to lift a finger to do him in. I can't imagine anything more self-destructive than to talk big in public, be unable to back it up, and then issue a lame 'explanation' of what was said.
ReplyDeleteProof no matter where you go, there you are.
DeleteIs it safe to assume if there is bad news then MITK goes up and vice versa?
ReplyDeleteWas there news?
DeleteSTEM- EPS .03? Can that be real?
ReplyDeleteMITK - Why up 19% today? Must be short covering.
ReplyDeleteThe chart of S is a perfect example of a stock that can go up during a downtrending market if the stock has gotten excessively beaten down.
ReplyDeleteOne thought I had is about the corporate side of things as it relates to smartphones. Blackberry dominated this sector for years; however, it wasn't completely compatible with the office setup in PCs that corporations were using in their offices.
The windows phone 8 op sys, which is coming out this fall, should allow smartphones to sync up with your outlook, windows, office suite, etc and it's probably this thinking that NOK had in mind when it abandoned Symbian, which was it's own operating system, and partnered with MSFT.
A couple of days ago NOK announced four decent sized wins from Blackberry for corporate customers. I would have to imagine that part of the attractiveness of a Nokia phone is that it provides continuity with the IT department of corporations because it is windows based. I'm assuming that's the angle that NOK is trying to play off of.
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