The other thing that has been great in the market this year is stocks which either issue their first dividend or do a big increase (like CSCO today).
People love their dividends and if you can find these, they seem to be good winners, even on weak earnings. Stocks which used to pay dividends, but had to cancel them because of the financial crisis, but are now getting things back on track are good candidates.
Speaking about beaten down sectors that should rally hard soon, take a look at the chart of the TSX Venture Composite Index (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P/TSX_Venture_Composite_Index):
I am just showing you this so that you wouldn't think that I am nuts investing money into some illiquid stock with a strange dynamics. Now you know that PNPFF simply follows CDXN index, and thus MUST recover from these unbelievable lows.
Just placed a buy limit order for 10K more shares of PNPFF at $0.86. I am recycling the money I got from selling my risky MUX calls into something safe, which has no downside and a HUGE upside...
mark - jesse and i have been exchanging emails for past three months tracking a list of beaten down stocks. several have rallied hard but there are still several left. he likes nbg and grvy and i think coals...all of them im not too sure about for various reasons but the charts all look good. i like grek a lot. kind of like buying the djia in 1932.
however i still like nok and dmnd and svnt (to a lesser extent) more.
I held NBG for a long time (and lost money) in hopes of a turnaround, but I think now the equity holders will end up with little or no value. Not that it won't be good for a trade, of course.
GRVY is getting down to the point I would seriously consider buying. Really not sure why it has come back this much and thought it was long gone or Ragnarok 2 would be a dud and it would crash. The Q1 results were encouraging I thought and showed things may be getting on the right track.
Another one you might want to look at - MGIC, which I hold, which has pulled back a lot, gotten to a good valuation, and could see a big move upwards if cloud computing gets hot again. Q2 was a weaker than expected, but still showed positive growth and the first 6 months numbers were very good. Could see a good Q3 or Q4 depending on how many sale they close.
In general, I think there are a lot of really cheap stocks outside of North America if you don't mind the aggravation and cost of buying these and are willing to do more work to get the info.
One company I am clooking at, is Compagnie Des Alpes (CDA in Paris and no OTC stock). They are the largest ski hill operator in France with some of the best mountains and also own amusement parks for summer diversification, pay a 6.5% yield, showed good numbers this year. They trade at half to a third of the valuation of VAIL and WB.TO (Whistler-Blackcomb). They don't own the ski hills, but have licenses from the government for on average 13 years, are pretty much always extended, and the contract requires the government to buy back their investment for at least book value if they cancel a contract, so they are protected.
My thinking is the stock is down from $35 five years ago to $12, seems to be bottoming, should rise as you get a valuation more in line with its competitors, good yield while you wait, buying it is cheap Euros.
The reason I'm hesitating is I'd have to open up a Euro-account with TD (which is easy to do and free), but I'd then take the hit on the currency exchange in and out (7.5% at TD), plus trades cost 30 Euros, and the dividends would be in Euros, and there's probably withholding tax.
I think it would make sense to do this if I wanted to keep the Euro-account open long term and use it buy Euro-stocks on a regular basis, but probably not worth doing for 1 stock.
interesting report at http://business.financialpost.com/2012/08/13/undervalued-canadian-energy-stocks-a-safer-bet-than-u-s-counterparts/
Shows how Canadian Energy companies at lowest valuation to US Energy in about 12 years.
So, it looks to me like all Canadian commodity companies (like your AUMN and PNPFF) are getting painted with the same brush. Canada, or maybe Australia, probably has the highest percentage of commodity companies in it's stock market and since commodities are out of favour now, these stocks take a double-hit of being a commodity stock in a commodity stock market.
Good thing is, like you say, that they are very cheap, so are ready to jump if we get a shift in sentiment. I'm not playing the metals like you, but am suffering along with you in several junior energy companies and they are similarly undervalued.
They do online multi-player gaming systems (kind of like Farmville, but interactive). Their big one is called Ragnarok and it came out in early 2000's. Have been working on a new version called Ragnarok 2 for 5+ years, had many problems and delays and finally came out with a version early this year. This new game is key to their success, so seeing the last Q numbers going up some is probably a good sign. Tough to get info on this company as they are Korean and don't provide the same level of info as US companies. If Ragnarok 2 is a dud, will be a big problem. Balance sheet is good, so have time, but not sure where they would go from here without it.
GRVY - Let's first wait for a high volume move up to determine that a bottom might be in. then we need a bit of a retracement to buy in. Take a look at the bottoming process in FSLR, NOK, SVNT etc. They almost always feature this.
that is, let the market do the heavy lifting for us. it can tell us when it's done going down. i'd like to see the price level out as well...maybe a double bottom and then a big "thrust" up. maybe the "thrust" up is during the double bottom process. it doesn't have to be exact.
FYI - AUMN, NOK and SVNT are three of the best looking charts I can find in this regard.
I might have to throw in the towel on FB, with lockouts ending the market is going to get flooded w/shares. Too bad they were greedy f*cking pieces of dog sh*t with the IPO - in the end FB will be able monitize mobile via online gambling, don't expect too many retail investors to be able to cash in on that.
We are getting into the good seasonal time of year for Precious Metals. The concern this year is with the Indian economy weak and the Rupee down, will they play out as usual? Central bankers are stepping up their buying, but I think they will be more patient and cost-conscious than the Indian Groom wanting to impress his new bride.
TOF - thought you might be ineterest in this furniture news for Canada - might be a bit different than the U.S., but generally pretty close:
Industry retail sales at furniture stores declined in almost every month between July 2010 and the end of 2011; however, in 2012 sales have increased in four out of five months. For the most recent full quarter of data (Q1/12), sales at Furniture Stores increased 3.2%, driven by particular strength in Alberta (energy sector).
damn i htink they're going to do a story on NSPH on CNBC...i just turned it on and heard them say something about 30,000 deaths a year in the hospital...which has to be sepsis.
It is looking even better now, after clearly breaking out to a new, post-July-24 high. And this breakout, correspondingly, made this Tuesday a 3rd higher low since July 24.
BB, with all the good observations you made today about Canadian small cap energy companies, I am surprised why you still don't own PNPFF -- it is VERY highly correlated with the Canadian Venture Composite Index, so buying it is not equivalent to buying "metals." You would simply buying the Venture Composite, but with a slightly higher beta and with the fact that its Price/NAV ratio is now 0.5!
I reduced my yesterday's PNPFF buy limit order to 5K shares (when I placed an order for 10K shares, my margin balance was reduced to almost 0, and any small drop in my portfolio would have given me a margin call, so I decided to leave a little cushion for myself), and these 5K shares were bought today at $0.86. I think PNPFF under $0.90 is THE safest buy in the market right now...
1. CEO sold 2 million of his 8 million shares at $0.95 back in May. 2. These guys are 75% metals and I'm still not convinced metals aren't still done for a while 3. A lot of these small resource companies would be getting hit with liquidity concerns I would think which could be problems for their business 4. I'd want to see the big guys start to turn as they generally lead out of a downturn - this does appear to be happenning now with stocks like BHP and ABS and TOF sees it is Silver, so perhaps it is time to get back into these.
After a jump in SLV today, it became clear that the pullback at the beginning of this week simply made a second higher low since the July 24 bottom. As of right now, SLV simply matched its previous high on July 30. But any further upside in SLV from here will imply a breakout to a new high, and then watch out...
I just saw the news that PNPFF announced yesterday that its NAV as of July 31 was $1.65, so my purchase today at $0.86 was EXACTLY at 1/2 of the NAV -- how can you go wrong with that???
You need people to get back into risk-taking mode for stocks like this to go up.
I agree you've got a good margin of safety and it should work out well in the long run, but I've seen closed end funds (which this really is) have huge discounts to NAV for very long, like multi-year periods.
Mark, we are up today because of the drop in $USD and TLT -- the cash pulled out of these markets was deployed into all riskier/crappier assets. BC tomorrow will probably give a good explanation as to why $USD and TLT were down today...
Oh, and Jon Nadler of Kitco published a piece in which he said there are likely to be Pt/Pd supply concerns going forward due to the SA mining labor issues. This old news being regurgitated probably helped as well.
I think it could be as simple as there's no new bad news and Europe is calming down and rates seem to be dropping there.
Also, the markets going up, so that make people fee better about buying. Plus, people seemed to panic into bonds with that 1.44% print on the 10 year, so some of that is coming out and the US$ is dropping.
Plus, you've got the hedge fund performance issues as the indexes show them to be quite far behind the market, so they won't be able to let the market drop.
The low VIX, which a lot of people think is a sign of complacency here may in reality be a sign that things are starting to calm down and normalize.
Finally, August seems to be the best month of the year in election years, so perhaps there is something to do with where we are in the political campaign which gives people hope.
I was only lucky NOK hit my stink bid, I probably wouldn't have been as fortunate if deep pockets hadn't been banging the tape around and using their computer algos to run stops.
I just noticed that the Spanish bond yields closed at a 52-week high of 7.62% on July 24, the day the whole PM complex made an intraday low. Today, the Spanish bond yields dropped to a 6-week low of 6.52%, and correspondingly all risky assets were on fire. Maybe THAT'S what compelled people to shift out of the safety of $USD and TLT...
Now sitting in quite a bit of cash for the first time in a couple of months. Almost bought NOK but held off. I'd like to see SVNT down to $0.86. I think the silver trade might just be a tease and nothing more. Still thinking we will see a pullback after hitting 1420-1450 so I'd rather be building up cash here.
Still holding DOW and PHM, never dropped down to my stops. Bought 100 shares of CHUY at $17.00 so I can tell them I'm one of the owners when I go there to eat.
boy SLV sure is at one critical juncture here. 16 month consolidation phase and right near resistance with positive divergences over the past few months. I'm holding AGQ and ready to pile in on this.
You're going to see some weak numbers out of the AG companies this quarter and the rest of the year due to the huge drought in the mid-west. I'm watching this as a possible buying opportunity as the long term AG story is still intact I believe and you may actually see some latent demand from this year fall into next as farmer's play catchup - so good numbers in 2013.
Are you considering ADM? They're processing business is getting hit on low crop yields, I would think. What I'm not sure of, is if it's all priced in already and any pullback like a retest of $25 level should be bought.
PAL - I suppose today's high volume indicates distribution, GGN experienced this phenomenon yesterday.
A large majority of catalytic metals are sourced from South Africa but supposedly they can't produce gold for less than $1600 anyway and there are other competitive sources, thus labor issues are not reason enough to push gold price higher. Perhaps SA's production cost is providing gold's $1600 benchmark floor though...
Jesse said he thinks there are too many people looking for a rally which I'm beginning to agree with. All Star Charts is saying action is constructive: http://allstarcharts.com/yes-the-action-in-silver-is-constructive/
That would tie in with the possibility of a minor shakeout with an immediate move higher to give the impression of strength…perhaps a shakedown today, with a weak close then a gap higher on Monday a false breakout to suck in guys like this guy and then the big short. Very confusing I know and a pretty complicated trade but I have to be open to this possibility now that I'm in the trade. We've seen this happen a lot where there are multiple fakeouts before the true move happens. Nat Gas is one that I can think of that really effed with a lot of people.
I think how I'm going to play it is hold through the weekend and wait for a false breakout. Given that there are indeed a lot of people seeing the trading as constructive, there needs to be something to convince them that they're right.
I'm just thinking bigger picture. The volatility has been crushed in gold and silver. There is a HUGE move coming soon. That move whether its higher or lower will involve at least 2 headfakes. The news flow over the past couple of weeks has been what seems to be quite bullish: (1) a move up in gold miners and silver miners (2) Paulson and Soros taking bullish positions on Gold (3) Merkel supporting a bailout of Italy and Spain (3) traders seeing a potential bullish setup
Given this "bullish" picture it makes sense that more people are leaning toward an upside breakout. As such, there needs to be an appearance of a breakout. So I'm just gonna plan on holding for that false breakout.
If this scenario holds, then a strong close today with a gap higher gives the appearance that the all clear signal has been given. Support of $28 was tested and held...then $28.5 was cleared on the gap higher...then a test of $30 in the cards....then the big short.
I have this feeling that any new longs are gonna get a kick in the pants, I'd rather short SPX at 1440 than go long anything here.
Pt/Pd rally is for the wrong reasons, if I understand correctly, although I was anticipating Pd/Pt would lead PM's on the way up.
It's just that the metals have been so weak lately and technically speaking another false breakout was anticipated for these. Add on top of that all talk and no action coming from Europe, the risks are just too great for me to ignore.
Of course a greater than SPX 1470.50 close with Pd over $600 and Pt over 1470 is probably how today ends.......
It's been my experience buying metals strength is the wrong move, don't ask how I know...
Improving economic conditions are dollar positive, as are deteriorating conditions in Europe, promises, promises, politicians..... Ughh!?!?!
How's Dr. Copper feeling? JJC hasn't broken out yet....
Actually, I'd love to know how I can short platinum. There may still be some near term upside in the price and if it does run appreciably higher or perhaps is already near a top, it's probably a really good short back to mid 1370's Once SA calms down and the story grows stale, weakness should resume.
And maybe by then, the broad market will have run out of steam as well?
Have a good one 2nd! Good luck staying away from the markets!
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteThe other thing that has been great in the market this year is stocks which either issue their first dividend or do a big increase (like CSCO today).
People love their dividends and if you can find these, they seem to be good winners, even on weak earnings. Stocks which used to pay dividends, but had to cancel them because of the financial crisis, but are now getting things back on track are good candidates.
Speaking about beaten down sectors that should rally hard soon, take a look at the chart of the TSX Venture Composite Index (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P/TSX_Venture_Composite_Index):
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$CDNX
How do you invest in that index? Through our old friend PNPFF! It traces that index almost perfectly:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=PNPFF
I am just showing you this so that you wouldn't think that I am nuts investing money into some illiquid stock with a strange dynamics. Now you know that PNPFF simply follows CDXN index, and thus MUST recover from these unbelievable lows.
Just placed a buy limit order for 10K more shares of PNPFF at $0.86. I am recycling the money I got from selling my risky MUX calls into something safe, which has no downside and a HUGE upside...
DeleteGive us the highlights of the itinerary! Mine is always...'Off to Sacto...'
ReplyDeletemark - jesse and i have been exchanging emails for past three months tracking a list of beaten down stocks. several have rallied hard but there are still several left. he likes nbg and grvy and i think coals...all of them im not too sure about for various reasons but the charts all look good. i like grek a lot. kind of like buying the djia in 1932.
Deletehowever i still like nok and dmnd and svnt (to a lesser extent) more.
NSPH is starting to get some serious ink now. Crap.
DeleteMDGN- Very interesting chart.
ReplyDeletenice chart but it's a biotech with no fda clearance.
Deletecheck out ATRS, LCC, two charts i really like.
I held NBG for a long time (and lost money) in hopes of a turnaround, but I think now the equity holders will end up with little or no value. Not that it won't be good for a trade, of course.
ReplyDeleteGRVY is getting down to the point I would seriously consider buying. Really not sure why it has come back this much and thought it was long gone or Ragnarok 2 would be a dud and it would crash. The Q1 results were encouraging I thought and showed things may be getting on the right track.
Another one you might want to look at - MGIC, which I hold, which has pulled back a lot, gotten to a good valuation, and could see a big move upwards if cloud computing gets hot again. Q2 was a weaker than expected, but still showed positive growth and the first 6 months numbers were very good. Could see a good Q3 or Q4 depending on how many sale they close.
In general, I think there are a lot of really cheap stocks outside of North America if you don't mind the aggravation and cost of buying these and are willing to do more work to get the info.
ReplyDeleteOne company I am clooking at, is Compagnie Des Alpes (CDA in Paris and no OTC stock). They are the largest ski hill operator in France with some of the best mountains and also own amusement parks for summer diversification, pay a 6.5% yield, showed good numbers this year. They trade at half to a third of the valuation of VAIL and WB.TO (Whistler-Blackcomb). They don't own the ski hills, but have licenses from the government for on average 13 years, are pretty much always extended, and the contract requires the government to buy back their investment for at least book value if they cancel a contract, so they are protected.
My thinking is the stock is down from $35 five years ago to $12, seems to be bottoming, should rise as you get a valuation more in line with its competitors, good yield while you wait, buying it is cheap Euros.
The reason I'm hesitating is I'd have to open up a Euro-account with TD (which is easy to do and free), but I'd then take the hit on the currency exchange in and out (7.5% at TD), plus trades cost 30 Euros, and the dividends would be in Euros, and there's probably withholding tax.
I think it would make sense to do this if I wanted to keep the Euro-account open long term and use it buy Euro-stocks on a regular basis, but probably not worth doing for 1 stock.
David,
ReplyDeleteinteresting report at http://business.financialpost.com/2012/08/13/undervalued-canadian-energy-stocks-a-safer-bet-than-u-s-counterparts/
Shows how Canadian Energy companies at lowest valuation to US Energy in about 12 years.
So, it looks to me like all Canadian commodity companies (like your AUMN and PNPFF) are getting painted with the same brush. Canada, or maybe Australia, probably has the highest percentage of commodity companies in it's stock market and since commodities are out of favour now, these stocks take a double-hit of being a commodity stock in a commodity stock market.
Good thing is, like you say, that they are very cheap, so are ready to jump if we get a shift in sentiment. I'm not playing the metals like you, but am suffering along with you in several junior energy companies and they are similarly undervalued.
GRVY - That's a pretty low PE, have you guys seen or used any of their products?
ReplyDeleteThey do online multi-player gaming systems (kind of like Farmville, but interactive). Their big one is called Ragnarok and it came out in early 2000's. Have been working on a new version called Ragnarok 2 for 5+ years, had many problems and delays and finally came out with a version early this year. This new game is key to their success, so seeing the last Q numbers going up some is probably a good sign. Tough to get info on this company as they are Korean and don't provide the same level of info as US companies. If Ragnarok 2 is a dud, will be a big problem. Balance sheet is good, so have time, but not sure where they would go from here without it.
DeleteYeah, I'm funny that way, I don't play video games b/c I consider it a complete waste of time.
DeleteI still have an old Atari kickin' around somewhere, with a stack of games to go with it.
PAL - Seems like this one's done basing, I had a tentative target of less than $1 though.
ReplyDeleteProbably another broad selloff would put it there?
GRVY - Let's first wait for a high volume move up to determine that a bottom might be in. then we need a bit of a retracement to buy in. Take a look at the bottoming process in FSLR, NOK, SVNT etc. They almost always feature this.
ReplyDeletethat is, let the market do the heavy lifting for us. it can tell us when it's done going down. i'd like to see the price level out as well...maybe a double bottom and then a big "thrust" up. maybe the "thrust" up is during the double bottom process. it doesn't have to be exact.
DeleteFYI - AUMN, NOK and SVNT are three of the best looking charts I can find in this regard.
take a look at PIR back in March/April 2009. This is a classic bottoming pattern.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=pir#symbol=pir;range=20080423,20090424;compare=;indicator=sma%2850,20,200%29+volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
INT - Still a good buy
ReplyDeleteCrossing my fingers that I can buy some SVNT today at $0.86.
ReplyDeletePicked up small chunk at $0.94 just in case I cant.
DeleteSold that at $.9514...I think this tests the $0.86 level again.
Deleteannnnnnd....i'm wrong. crap.
DeleteNSPH - Okay, maybe the momo guys are gonna bring this one back to us?
ReplyDeleteI might have to throw in the towel on FB, with lockouts ending the market is going to get flooded w/shares. Too bad they were greedy f*cking pieces of dog sh*t with the IPO - in the end FB will be able monitize mobile via online gambling, don't expect too many retail investors to be able to cash in on that.
ReplyDeleteI had something like an $18.xx target on FB, not sure now how or where this number came from anymore, my tattered memory can't recall.
Deleteyou're just about there!
DeleteTough spot. If it was any other stock I'd say wait for a bounce, but lots of pub. on this one.
DeleteNOK - Okay, so I raised my bid to $2.58, this is all the higher I'm willing to go without feeling like I'm chasing.
ReplyDeleteGGN - Some crazy shit, this one goes ex-div and keeps climbing...
ReplyDeleteCSTR- Interesting if true.
ReplyDeleteEuro - I can't believe the market is allowing euroleaders such a peaceful vacation on the Riviera.
ReplyDeleteCome on now, parity or bust!
SRS - Hmm, it sure doesn't seem likely this thing moves up but wouldn't rising rates tend to put a floor under it?
ReplyDeleteCSTR - Yeah, this one was looking comparatively cheap anyway... Hopefully it's not true.
ReplyDeleteDang, did someone say aomething, or what?
ReplyDeleteSupposedly CSCO caused today's enthusiasm?
Additionally, recent economic data has been fairly decent.
DeleteDavid, adding to my previous comment, just noticed TSX Canada smallcap index (XCS.TO) is still down 25% from its April, 2011 high.
ReplyDeleteAUMN chart looks awesome.
ReplyDeleteDamn AGQ looks excellent.
ReplyDeleteSure, looks twice as good. I'm waiting to short these breakouts.
DeleteIf SLV can clear $27.5 on a close I'm thinking the best play is AGQ.
ReplyDeleteWe are getting into the good seasonal time of year for Precious Metals. The concern this year is with the Indian economy weak and the Rupee down, will they play out as usual? Central bankers are stepping up their buying, but I think they will be more patient and cost-conscious than the Indian Groom wanting to impress his new bride.
ReplyDeleteLong AGQ $39.7
ReplyDeleteWow - buying a metal stock!
DeleteNOK - Okay, this thing should be able to handily retake $2.77...
ReplyDeletedudes - the old fav REDF...double bottom with positive divergences (MACD, Stochastics, OBV)
ReplyDeleteGoes without fail...OpEx tomorrow...buyout rumor on FIO.
ReplyDeleteTOF - thought you might be ineterest in this furniture news for Canada - might be a bit different than the U.S., but generally pretty close:
ReplyDeleteIndustry retail sales at furniture stores declined in almost every month between July 2010 and the end of 2011; however, in 2012 sales have increased in four out of five months. For the most recent full quarter of data (Q1/12), sales at Furniture Stores increased 3.2%, driven by particular strength in Alberta (energy sector).
INteresting...thanks man.
DeleteAdded more AGQ at $39.77
ReplyDeleteThis could be the breakout day people have been waiting for in Silver.
ReplyDeletedamn i htink they're going to do a story on NSPH on CNBC...i just turned it on and heard them say something about 30,000 deaths a year in the hospital...which has to be sepsis.
ReplyDeletei don't know why but i sold all of my NOK at $2.68. I think I'm just thinking we can get it lower again.
ReplyDelete"AUMN chart looks awesome."
ReplyDeleteIt is looking even better now, after clearly breaking out to a new, post-July-24 high. And this breakout, correspondingly, made this Tuesday a 3rd higher low since July 24.
BB, with all the good observations you made today about Canadian small cap energy companies, I am surprised why you still don't own PNPFF -- it is VERY highly correlated with the Canadian Venture Composite Index, so buying it is not equivalent to buying "metals." You would simply buying the Venture Composite, but with a slightly higher beta and with the fact that its Price/NAV ratio is now 0.5!
ReplyDeleteI reduced my yesterday's PNPFF buy limit order to 5K shares (when I placed an order for 10K shares, my margin balance was reduced to almost 0, and any small drop in my portfolio would have given me a margin call, so I decided to leave a little cushion for myself), and these 5K shares were bought today at $0.86. I think PNPFF under $0.90 is THE safest buy in the market right now...
Here are my issues with PNPFF:
Delete1. CEO sold 2 million of his 8 million shares at $0.95 back in May.
2. These guys are 75% metals and I'm still not convinced metals aren't still done for a while
3. A lot of these small resource companies would be getting hit with liquidity concerns I would think which could be problems for their business
4. I'd want to see the big guys start to turn as they generally lead out of a downturn - this does appear to be happenning now with stocks like BHP and ABS and TOF sees it is Silver, so perhaps it is time to get back into these.
NOK - I'm in at $2.58, should I take the gain here?
ReplyDeleteNo idea CP, but the momentum in the very short term may be gone. I was getting a bad feeling for some reason...can't really explain it.
DeleteDavid - If SLV closes above $27.50 I might go all in on AGQ. The chart is too compelling.
ReplyDeleteAfter a jump in SLV today, it became clear that the pullback at the beginning of this week simply made a second higher low since the July 24 bottom. As of right now, SLV simply matched its previous high on July 30. But any further upside in SLV from here will imply a breakout to a new high, and then watch out...
ReplyDeleteI just saw the news that PNPFF announced yesterday that its NAV as of July 31 was $1.65, so my purchase today at $0.86 was EXACTLY at 1/2 of the NAV -- how can you go wrong with that???
ReplyDeleteYou need people to get back into risk-taking mode for stocks like this to go up.
DeleteI agree you've got a good margin of safety and it should work out well in the long run, but I've seen closed end funds (which this really is) have huge discounts to NAV for very long, like multi-year periods.
Well, I expect their NAV to double in a year as well. :)
DeleteI don't get it today.
ReplyDeleteWhat don't you get, Mark?
DeleteWhy we are up.
DeleteI heard CNBC had a piece saying Merkel announced she's meeting with Italy and Spain.
DeleteNews of platinum labor unrest in south Africa were rebroadcast, put a $44.00 cherry on the Sundae.
NOK - Okay, I've got it up at $2.64 for a partial fill so far.
ReplyDeleteSure, I'll take the gain if they wanna give it to me...
All gone, someone bought it.
DeleteWhew, it was a full size position, too....
CP - I am probably reading into today too much with NOK. This could be nothing more than one of those many shakeouts to get people off the train.
DeleteHey, I'm happy with the gain man, no regrets. As far as I know, Europe is still BK, so no worries.
DeleteTOF - Have you checked your earlier order to make certain you didn't actually sell at $2.58 instead of $2.68 by mistake?
DeleteI think you caused today's NOK flash crash, SEC might ring you up soon...
CP - No i sold at $2.68...just took a few minutes to post it.
DeleteFilled Sell 116200 NOK Market 2.68 -- -- 13:14:55 08/16/12
Filled Sell 1000 NOK Market 2.68 -- -- 13:14:55 08/16/12
Filled Sell 2000 NOK Market 2.68 -- -- 13:14:55 08/16/12
Filled Sell 100 NOK Market 2.68 -- -- 13:14:55 08/16/12
Filled Sell 1000 NOK Market 2.68 -- -- 13:14:55 08/16/12
Did anything come up on NSPH?
ReplyDeleteMark, we are up today because of the drop in $USD and TLT -- the cash pulled out of these markets was deployed into all riskier/crappier assets. BC tomorrow will probably give a good explanation as to why $USD and TLT were down today...
ReplyDeleteI heard CNBC had a piece saying Merkel announced she's meeting with Italy and Spain.
DeleteNews of platinum labor unrest in south Africa were rebroadcast, put a $44.00 cherry on the Sundae.
SWC - Did you guys see this thing run? LOL, management sold over a $$million of shares just a couple days ago....
ReplyDeleteOh, and Jon Nadler of Kitco published a piece in which he said there are likely to be Pt/Pd supply concerns going forward due to the SA mining labor issues. This old news being regurgitated probably helped as well.
DeleteYou just know they're going to either close SLV right below $27.50 and gap it up tomorrow or sell it off into the close and gap it up tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteUS CO2 emissions has dropped to lowest levels in 20 yrs due to switchover to using natural gas...
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteI think it could be as simple as there's no new bad news and Europe is calming down and rates seem to be dropping there.
Also, the markets going up, so that make people fee better about buying. Plus, people seemed to panic into bonds with that 1.44% print on the 10 year, so some of that is coming out and the US$ is dropping.
Plus, you've got the hedge fund performance issues as the indexes show them to be quite far behind the market, so they won't be able to let the market drop.
The low VIX, which a lot of people think is a sign of complacency here may in reality be a sign that things are starting to calm down and normalize.
Finally, August seems to be the best month of the year in election years, so perhaps there is something to do with where we are in the political campaign which gives people hope.
More support for the "risk on" trade:
DeleteBespoke - Huge rotation out of defensives continues. Utilities, Telecom, Staples and Health Care sectors all down w/ Dow up 75 points
NOK is strong. I will probably hop back in. Should have bought that dip like CP
ReplyDeleteI was only lucky NOK hit my stink bid, I probably wouldn't have been as fortunate if deep pockets hadn't been banging the tape around and using their computer algos to run stops.
DeleteAdded some more AGQ at $39.69. i have a feeling i'll find out tomorrow if i'm right about a potential breakout.
ReplyDeletePost mortum: So since the dollar lost 0.35% of it's value today, I barely came out ahead once capital gains taxes are paid...
ReplyDeleteI just noticed that the Spanish bond yields closed at a 52-week high of 7.62% on July 24, the day the whole PM complex made an intraday low. Today, the Spanish bond yields dropped to a 6-week low of 6.52%, and correspondingly all risky assets were on fire. Maybe THAT'S what compelled people to shift out of the safety of $USD and TLT...
ReplyDeleteIt has one hell of a lot to do with it, how does Italy look and how can we play lower Italian rates purely?
DeleteNow sitting in quite a bit of cash for the first time in a couple of months. Almost bought NOK but held off. I'd like to see SVNT down to $0.86. I think the silver trade might just be a tease and nothing more. Still thinking we will see a pullback after hitting 1420-1450 so I'd rather be building up cash here.
ReplyDeleteSo which one of you, folks, bought PNPFF into the close? :) If this breakout continues tomorrow and it gets above $1, then sky is the limit...
ReplyDeleteFor the first time since mid-March, the Canadian Venture Composite CDNX rose above its 50-day MA today:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$CDNX
The nice round bottom it has traced out over the past 6 weeks suggests (to me, at least), that a huge parabolic move is about to happen...
So Merkel went hat in hand to Harper asking for Canada to contribute to bailing out Europe's banking elite today, I hear...
ReplyDeleteThe short answer was "NO!", LOL!
Dollar - Looks like bulls need to keep the dollar under 82.6 resistance.
ReplyDelete$copper - I'm not sure if there's anything to this but, it seems like commercials have been adding to their copper positions:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=d1
Still holding DOW and PHM, never dropped down to my stops. Bought 100 shares of CHUY at $17.00 so I can tell them I'm one of the owners when I go there to eat.
ReplyDeleteboy SLV sure is at one critical juncture here. 16 month consolidation phase and right near resistance with positive divergences over the past few months. I'm holding AGQ and ready to pile in on this.
ReplyDeleteYou're going to see some weak numbers out of the AG companies this quarter and the rest of the year due to the huge drought in the mid-west. I'm watching this as a possible buying opportunity as the long term AG story is still intact I believe and you may actually see some latent demand from this year fall into next as farmer's play catchup - so good numbers in 2013.
ReplyDeleteAre you considering ADM? They're processing business is getting hit on low crop yields, I would think. What I'm not sure of, is if it's all priced in already and any pullback like a retest of $25 level should be bought.
DeleteConfidence better than expected, trailing indicator?
ReplyDeletealright...probably dumb but all in AGQ on this little drop.
ReplyDeletestop $38.5
DeleteDang man. GL!
Deletewe'll see how it goes. good risk reward. seems like theyre shaking the tree before a big move up but could be wrong
DeleteNOK - Okay, so where are those sellers from yesterday???
ReplyDeletewanting to buy back in of course!
DeleteSOAB, what a bunch of a-holes! :(
Delete1417.5 - Is the level bulls need to overcome
ReplyDeleteBAC - Back over $8, where's FF on this one???
ReplyDeleteGGN - Can this baby hold onto $14???? I'd love to own this one for the dividend....
ReplyDeletePAL - Damn, maybe my $1 target never happens!?!?!?
ReplyDeleteDECK back to $50...wow.
ReplyDeletePlatinum/Palladium - Sure does have an impact when violence and people getting killed hits the news...
ReplyDeletePAL - I suppose today's high volume indicates distribution, GGN experienced this phenomenon yesterday.
ReplyDeleteA large majority of catalytic metals are sourced from South Africa but supposedly they can't produce gold for less than $1600 anyway and there are other competitive sources, thus labor issues are not reason enough to push gold price higher. Perhaps SA's production cost is providing gold's $1600 benchmark floor though...
Looks like I'm gonna get stopped out of the silver trade. Might widen my stop out to play the possibility that we get:
ReplyDeleteFake move lower, then false breakout above $28.5 to as high as $30, then collapse.
I was just going to ask if you were going to hold over the weekend.
DeleteJesse said he thinks there are too many people looking for a rally which I'm beginning to agree with. All Star Charts is saying action is constructive:
Deletehttp://allstarcharts.com/yes-the-action-in-silver-is-constructive/
That would tie in with the possibility of a minor shakeout with an immediate move higher to give the impression of strength…perhaps a shakedown today, with a weak close then a gap higher on Monday a false breakout to suck in guys like this guy and then the big short. Very confusing I know and a pretty complicated trade but I have to be open to this possibility now that I'm in the trade. We've seen this happen a lot where there are multiple fakeouts before the true move happens. Nat Gas is one that I can think of that really effed with a lot of people.
I think how I'm going to play it is hold through the weekend and wait for a false breakout. Given that there are indeed a lot of people seeing the trading as constructive, there needs to be something to convince them that they're right.
Looking at the daily I don't even see a dollar before the next level of resistance and the largest VWAP zone over 180 days.
DeleteOr are you only looking for a replay of what happened in early June?
DeleteI'm just thinking bigger picture. The volatility has been crushed in gold and silver. There is a HUGE move coming soon. That move whether its higher or lower will involve at least 2 headfakes. The news flow over the past couple of weeks has been what seems to be quite bullish:
Delete(1) a move up in gold miners and silver miners
(2) Paulson and Soros taking bullish positions on Gold
(3) Merkel supporting a bailout of Italy and Spain
(3) traders seeing a potential bullish setup
Given this "bullish" picture it makes sense that more people are leaning toward an upside breakout. As such, there needs to be an appearance of a breakout. So I'm just gonna plan on holding for that false breakout.
So the best trading is probably to go long AGQ for the false breakout, then pound ZSL for the subsequent break down.
DeleteIf this scenario holds, then a strong close today with a gap higher gives the appearance that the all clear signal has been given. Support of $28 was tested and held...then $28.5 was cleared on the gap higher...then a test of $30 in the cards....then the big short.
DeleteIntersting. Any plans for the weekend?
Deletevegas?
DeleteI think we might head down to Half Moon Bay.
Deletethat's a nice spot. we stopped in that area on our road trip up there 2 years ago.
Delete$1.85 is an interesting level for AXAS.
ReplyDeleteI have this feeling that any new longs are gonna get a kick in the pants, I'd rather short SPX at 1440 than go long anything here.
ReplyDeletePt/Pd rally is for the wrong reasons, if I understand correctly, although I was anticipating Pd/Pt would lead PM's on the way up.
It's just that the metals have been so weak lately and technically speaking another false breakout was anticipated for these. Add on top of that all talk and no action coming from Europe, the risks are just too great for me to ignore.
Of course a greater than SPX 1470.50 close with Pd over $600 and Pt over 1470 is probably how today ends.......
It's been my experience buying metals strength is the wrong move, don't ask how I know...
Improving economic conditions are dollar positive, as are deteriorating conditions in Europe, promises, promises, politicians..... Ughh!?!?!
How's Dr. Copper feeling? JJC hasn't broken out yet....
Good luck longs, too RISKY for me!
SPX 1417.50, that is...
DeletePretty much agree bird man.
Deletei don't recommend shorting anything...i'd rather wait for any pullbacks if they do happen.
DeleteYeah, it's probably time to look for an entry on FB.. :O
DeleteActually, I'd love to know how I can short platinum. There may still be some near term upside in the price and if it does run appreciably higher or perhaps is already near a top, it's probably a really good short back to mid 1370's Once SA calms down and the story grows stale, weakness should resume.
DeleteAnd maybe by then, the broad market will have run out of steam as well?
What do you guys think about the sad set of circumstances concerning the South African mining industry?
ReplyDeletehttp://news.yahoo.com/platinum-hits-6-week-high-safrica-violence-150029890--finance.html?_esi=1
ATPG- Couldn't see that one coming now could you.
ReplyDeleteOh damn, definitely a surprise, LOL, nope! : EPS (ttm): -4.62 and debt up the wazoo...
DeleteNow whatever's left is owned by someone other than shareholders regardless of what it might be worth.
They really got balled up in the whole Macando nightmare.
Deletenew post
ReplyDelete