Saturday, August 18, 2012
8/18/12 Play to win
I can trace all of my recent lethargy to playing not to lose. Play to win. It's impossible not to have a fire under you when playing to win. If I want serious gains I need to wake up- trading is no rehearsal, it's the real deal. I'm not saying to trade recklessly, but I definitely need to bump up the aggression. Get a little ugly, get a little mean. Let the crowd walk around in fear.
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http://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2012/08/17/size-matters-making-a-tiny-portfolio-generate-plump-profits/
ReplyDeleteExcellent article. I like the fact that they sometimes build up their cash account too when they feel stocks are overvalued.
DeleteI've been thinking about buying some Berkshire in the long term account.
I know you guys are mostly traders but do you have any funds that you would feel comfortable leaving your money in? It seems that I have less time these days to allocate to trading and I don't see that changing for the next couple of years. I don't think I'll ever give up on trading but I've really scalled back on time allocated to trading as the toddler gets more active.
port - despite the run i think its a decent time to scaling back on trading and do. some buy and hold. there are some great turnaround stories that could be multi month / year trades like natty, fslr, nok (still not definite yet but looking like it)...
DeleteI think that there are lots of stocks you can buy and hold for a couple of years. Because we've had such a good run lately, I think you would have to edge into this type of position and start with say a 25% holding and add on weakness.
DeleteI haven't really looked at BRK though - the problem with it really is just that is too big - Buffet will even tell you so and that he is unlikely to beat the market going forward because he has so few choices of investments that can make a dent in his overall performance. I think he can do fine and match the market, and the risk is low, but I want to try and beat the market.
If you want a fund to invest in, I wouldn't know where to look as we invest in different funds in Canada than you do in the U.S., but I have a couple of suggestions:
The only fund I own you can buy on the OTC markets is Economic Investment Trust (ECVTF or EVT in Toronto). It is a closed end investment fund controlled by one of Canada's wealthiest families and trades at 32% discount to Net Asset Value. It never trades at NAV, but in a good market, will trade at a discount of 15% -20%, so about 15% higher than here. It pays out a 1.1% standard quarterly dividend and recently instituted a policy whereby it will pay out a special annual dividend with the previous year's extra profits, so this discount may shrink.
It basically is a fund which owns an insurance company which itself is at about 50% of book value, a bunch of Canadian dividend stocks, then a global investment portfolio which is managed at a very low cost. Should we get a good market, the insurance company value will increase as it's discount decreases, the investment portfolio will go up and the overall company discount will decrease, so we should see very good upside. If we have a poor market, this stock tends to go down less than the market as it has underlying valuation support.
If you want to invest in a US Fund, I'd take a look at http://www.closed-endfunds.com for ideas. Buying closed-end funds at large discounts is generally a good strategy for patient investing.
For example, there is a fund called the Denali Fund which is at a 20% discount to NAV, has a 5% distribution, traded at NAV in 2007, so could likely erase this discount in a good market and looks like conservative investments with 28% in Berkshire Hathaway. Haven't looked at it detail, but might be a good one.
BB - I agree that now its not the time to go all in. I'm only looking to do short term trades right now because I'm basically timing my moves...i.e., waiting for pullbacks in the few trades that interest me right now: SVNT, NOK, UNG/BOIL/UGAZ, REDF, NBG/GREK
DeleteIt's really amazing to me how slow it gets during the summer.
ReplyDeleteSure does Mark. I've been skipping out of the markets on Friday's for a few weeks now and hardly miss a thing.
DeleteSeptember will be an interesting month though I bet. The election campaign will be in full gear, the European politicians will be back from vacation - back to more of the macro risk on/risk off crap. Hopefully, traders have learned to ignore a lot of this and will get back to evaluating stock on their merits. But I doubt it.
Friday Aug 31 - Jackson Hole meeting.
DeleteThursday Sep 6 - ECU meets.
Wednesday Sep 12 - German high court decision on what Germany can/can't do.
My pick for a growth stock is NSPH no matter what happens.
Illini - The NSPH chart is almost identical to REED's chart of about 6 weeks ago. If the pattern holds it should pull back to perhaps around $3 and consolidate and then blast higher.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of REED, man why did I ever sell that at $3.7? Too quick to take a gain on that one. Could be another MNST in the making.
Here are a couple of stocks in uptrends currently in a pause mode, similar to what I was looking for when I found REED and NSPH:
OSIR
IMAX
ETRM
by the way, the screen on these was quite simple:
Delete*Stocks with 50%+ gains over past 6 months
*Stocks with 20%+ pullback over past month
*Stocks above 200 DMA
*Volume > 50k
Wow, did Dr. Copper really just lose all(most) his gains from last week? That's what it looks like....
ReplyDeleteHi-ho the merri-o, a coiling we shall go...
http://www.theonion.com/articles/ugandan-powerball-jackpot-hits-31-grains-of-rice,29208/
ReplyDeleteNot sure if you guys saw the big news.
ZAGG?
ReplyDeleteForget it. They will be talking about it on CNBC.
DeleteIMAX - Yeah, I'd been looking for an entry on this one.
ReplyDeleteSeems like it's coiling, is P/E Justified?
Stopped out of 1/2 of my FB trade. Shares are just swamping any buy efforts, will hold a piece for the online gambling play.
ReplyDeleteLook for many more purchases by SAP, ORCL, IBM and even HPQ and DELL.....all "cloud" co's are in play. I think I'm going to change the name of my firm from Mark Road Capital Partners to Clouds R Us...lol
Keep us up to date on this. I like the gambling angle a lot, but from what I read, it seems a long way way.
DeletePre Jackson hole shakeout, melt-up to the event, then sell the news?
ReplyDeletePAL - Okay, maybe it's still possible to get my sub $1 entry...
GREK looks fantastic. Bull flag with a cup and handle is what it looks like to me. A break above 12.5 and its off to the races.
ReplyDeleteI think it's time to start pounding the Nat Gas trade. If you have balls of steel then BOIL or UGAZ (double and triple the move in Nat Gas, respectively) are the plays. If you're more conservative then UNG.
ReplyDeleteTBT FINALLY looks a buy, now that just about every bull has been wiped out.
ReplyDeleteMy honest opinion is almost all market bearishness is completely unjustified, but I'm not in control of the market.
DeleteTC - Today or tomorrow could be the day to get your entry should you feel inclined...
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure about it, more and more I think metals are too currency dependent for my tastes.
Silver liftoff...still holding AGQ. The market is going to rip higher today is my best guess.
ReplyDeleteI see objectivetrader.com is calling for a silver rally of 20% to $33 to $35. I wouldn't mind that :)
Deleteholy shit. breakout in silver.
DeletePM's - WTF, over?!?!?
ReplyDeleteTrip Report: Drove to NY this weekend, didn't see any signs of a depression but not much to compare considering I don't often make this trip.
ReplyDeleteNJ Tpk gasoline stations were all packed and busy as heck, cars lined up 5 deep at the pumps, every island in every service center.
Sunoco must be selling one heck of a lot of gasoline!
Maybe this is it?
ReplyDelete"12:01AM New ECB bazooka offers opportunity"
I'd highly recommend buying UGAZ/BOIL/UNG whatever your risk tolerance for the long term.
ReplyDeletelook at where nat gas has pulled back to...pretty much right around the highs from the initial rally off the bottom. this is a very good entry point.
Deletelast low to high
DeleteH 3.157
L 2.277
.5 retrace 2.71
based on NG SEP, definitely interesting spot
F me if metals run, I'm not taking the bait this time.
ReplyDeleteLook at how similar the rally in silver is to the rally in the nasdaq back in 2000:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^IXIC+Interactive#symbol=^ixic;range=19980721,20000918;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SLV+Interactive#symbol=slv;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The top is most likely already in...however, I could easily see a run back up to $34 before the big short. I'm going to hold the AGQ for a bit longer.
"I know you guys are mostly traders but do you have any funds that you would feel comfortable leaving your money in?"
ReplyDeleteport, the best "fund" to leave the money in right now is, IMO, PNPFF. :) It tracks very closely the Canadian Venture Composite Index, but has a bigger beta. It is carving out a bottom right now, and the move to the upside will be HUGE, at least 100% over the next year.
100% *if* gold and silver stabilize in a range and traders stop worrying about them going down. If, however, gold and silver take of to the upside, then a move similar to the one happening during QE2 is possible, where PNPFF went up 4X.
DeleteCongrats, TOF, on your AGQ entry! Now you just need to make sure that you lock in at least 50% of these gains, and then do not do the ZSL thing, since another gap up in AGQ can wipe out your gains on AGQ.
ReplyDeletewhy would a gap up on AGQ wipe out my gains in AGQ?
DeleteThat's IF you make a switch from AGQ to ZSL, and then AGQ keeps gapping up...
DeleteOh...I wouldn't do that unless SLV gets to $34
Deletehowever, there are much better opportunities out there than shorting silver in my opinion. Long Nat Gas, for one...Long NOK at $2.2 would be another one.
DeleteDo you know what caused silver to go up so much given that gold is up only slightly and copper is down?
DeleteRisk appetite?
DeleteBB - Do we need to know? I just looked at the chart and saw what looked like an imminent breakout. On the daily chart you had positive diverengces for RSI and MACD as it was making new lows. MACD on daily chart was breaking above 0 and in an uptrend, 50 DMA was cleared, Stochastics were confirming more move to the upside, RSI was confirming the move...on the weekly chart you had a positive MACD crossover, a buy signal on the Stochastics. It doesn't always work out but all of the technicals were in place it was a matter of the price confirming.
DeleteWhat's up with AUMN being down on a day like this??? It should have been up like 10% at least...
ReplyDeleteI guess this shows how thinly this stock is traded -- given their leverage to the price of silver, today's move up, if sustainable, should have a noticeable impact on their profitability...
DeleteOr maybe traders, worn out by many false breakouts in silver, want to see this move "stick" for a few days before piling into the miners...
DeleteSold my AGQ at $41.45/46.
ReplyDeleteBoyfriend alert!
ReplyDeleteSautie baby?
Deleteyep. Lot's of volume coming in NSPH.
Deletelate day breakouts are very good signs. prevents most traders miss the gains when this happens.
Deletewtf...that was bad english. meant most traders miss the gains on late day breakouts and are forced to buy at market on the open of the next day. causes gaps up on the next day. very good sign for NSPH.
DeleteWe were too focused on the fact that the 200 placements was wrong. we should have probably focused on the comments by the doctors / hospitals in that article...and the exposure the company got. That was the real story. We f*cked up.
DeleteWhat surprised me was the article was right after the CC. He could have said all of that on the CC. I don't get it.
DeleteI just read your last comment again. Yes, your probably right.
DeleteBC wrote about the broad market in his WIR:
ReplyDelete"Traders for the most part are not convinced these gains are sustainable, and that is the very condition that makes for the early stage of a Bull market phase, the one where the majority of people are hoping that prices can sink for a few days before they buy into the market."
What if this is exactly what is happening in the silver sector now?
David - Do you really think we're in the early stage of a bull market in silver?
Deletehttp://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag85-pres.gif
Yep. I consider what happened since May 2011 to be a complete bear market, judging by how much the miners were trashed. There was a TOTAL change in the attitude, and hence what Bill wrote applies to the silver market, as the attitude gradually starts changing from expecting silver to decline over time to expecting it to go up to new highs.
Deleteok, i agree the miners are setting up nicely, but i think there's a chance the metal doesn't move much even if the miners rock higher.
DeleteHave you seen how low the bull-bear spread in small speculator silver futures positions got in May 2012? Lower than during the sell-off in 2008! There was a COMPLETE washout in silver sentiment, not just in the miners...
Deleteyep...which is why i think it rallies here but not exactly in the beginning stages of a bull market...not after it moved from $4 to $46.
DeleteSpeaking about today's rally in silver, here is what BC wrote in his WIR:
ReplyDelete"We know that over the long run what happens to $PLAT and $PALL also happens to $GOLD and $SILVER. So, next week will be interesting."
So maybe the "long run" behavior happened today. :)
From BMO this week re Silver:
ReplyDelete After dropping below 140Moz in early August, COMEX silver inventories climbed back up to ~141Moz last week.
COMEX silver inventory levels remain elevated, near ~15-year record high levels.
As a result, market concerns over a potential silver supply surplus persist.
The level of net speculative positions increased by ~14% last week, with the number of long speculative positions experiencing a slight uptick while the number of short positions declined by a similar-sized amount.
Total ETF physical silver holdings increased by just over 9Moz last week, due to a notable increase (~9.5Moz) in SLV holdings.
Silver ETF holdings are sitting at YTD high levels.
The year-to-date net inflow for silver ETF holdings is ~34Moz, closing in on BMO Research’s assumption of a net ETF inflow of 50Moz by the end of the year.
The silver forward curve continues to sit well below its year-ago levels, though it is above where it was a month ago and in line with last week.
"We know that over the long run what happens to $PLAT and $PALL also happens to $GOLD and $SILVER"
ReplyDeleteOh, hurray for PM's!!!!!
Thanks for the ideas on investing. I'm plan to go over these with my value investing work buddy.
ReplyDeleteBot 1000 SLV at 27.74 after reading TOF's post and looking at the charts. This one could certainly fail but I have stops in place although I'm using a lower stop now that what I was originally looking at. Setting my stop a smidge below yesterday's low, say around 27.04 with a first sell target on half the shares at 28.44.
Headline on CNBC.
ReplyDeleteGoldman to Clients: Get Out of Stocks Before Fiscal Cliff Hits
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48725644
I don't think anyone believes congress will come anywhere close to addressing the fiscal cliff and yet the market goes up.
goldman wants in cheap.
Deletefinviz show's conglomerates as the best one week performer. Screening using price great than $5.00, avg vol over 500k, and 0-5% below 52 week hi gives me two stocks, MMM and RYN.
ReplyDeleteI like RYN better on a break above 48.35 ish with a stop just below that if i buy.
MMM's chart is a CHOPPY UP pattern. Looks like it needs to pull back to 92ish to set up a buy.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/818081-don-t-rush-to-buy-stocks-at-these-levels
ReplyDeletehttp://www.objectivetrader.com/2012/08/unfreakin-believable.html
always good to read all opinions.
Long UGAZ...25.51
ReplyDeleteCan we go short now, or should we wait for 1440?
ReplyDeleteI'm inclined to wait a bit, for now.
get long nat gas bro
DeleteI might join you. Wish it was a little later in the year, but that's the point.
Deleteyeah...i think a lot of people are expecting much lower prices. nasty little drop here.
DeleteMUX- We really (I) Fed that sucker up big time. Missed my second entry by .02.
ReplyDeleteAdding UGAZ as it drops.
ReplyDeleteholy shit. Nat Gas is crashing.
ReplyDeleteI can't find anything.
Deleteshakeout.
Deleteloading up on natty...great risk-reward point here.
ReplyDeleteWhen these dives happen they usually get tested again.
DeleteI went all in. Even if it gets tested again, that's basically the low point of the past week or so. Given that this could be the final shakeout before a 100% rally in nat gas, what's a few pennies?
Deletewow...just...wow. i feel like i'm on the craps table.
DeleteGreat job man. Might have been as simple as a big position closing.
Deleteliterally a $40k swing in 20 minutes...holy shit.
Delete"hi my name is X...and I'm a UGAZaholic."
DeleteI bet, and I'd take it all right here. But you already know that.
DeleteMark - As an admitted UGAZaholic, I am obviously holding out for 150% gains.
DeleteCoal stocks are rallying hard.
DeleteRight now I don't have a ton of conviction to go long stocks in the very short term because I think there will be a pullback. However, look at how Nat Gas performed from the April high to June low when the market dropped 10%.
ReplyDeletewow, can't believe what I missed this a.m., great job hanging tough tof. what the heck is going on w.nat gas? UGAZ and BOIL went nuts, both ways, today
Deletei think it's just bottoming out here. lots of crazy swings as the market finds support. my bet is this is the final pullback before the real rally starts.
Delete"Cramer: You Shouldn't Hate This Market"
ReplyDeleteSounds like good advice, huh?
Whatever the news is, it sure must be good. Damn good judging by the reaction...
Wow - AMNF at $0.92 now. Guess the buy under $0.80 was the place to be. Thought we'd see a pullback after the good quarterly results, but doesn't seem to be coming.
ReplyDeleteBB - I was very close to buying at $0.88 last week. The more I think about it, it's a $2.00 stock. They're on a $0.10 EPS run rate and pay a 5% dividend. And it's in the foods / nat food segment which is hot. I could see it run up to $3 on euphoria.
DeleteUGAZ - I just got back in from a nice boat ride to look over the UGAZ chart, OMG, what a ride (boatride)!
ReplyDeleteNow, WTF is up with natty, you guyz jumping aboard?
UGAZ - "This security is currently blocked and cannot be traded in your account."
ReplyDeletethey should be blocking me from it too.
Deleteno blocking at IB
Deletenone on TD AMeritrade.
DeleteNG fundy going forward.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2012/8/15/natural-gas-and-the-brutal-dethroning-of-king-coal.html
tidbit:
The loser was coal. An ugly slide that accelerated over the last few years. Higher natural gas prices—a certainty, given that they’re currently below production costs—will have some impact on the speed of the progression of natural gas. In the short term, power generators switch between fuels to take advantage of lower costs here and there. But as more gas-fired plants have come on line, and as the oldest, most inefficient coal plants are being retired, the shift to natural gas has become structural—pushing up demand inexorably.
The US has dropped CO2 emissions back to two decade lows, attributable to adoption of natty in lieu of coal.
DeleteSo yes, coal apparently has no bananas (incredible as it sounds, I have a hard time believing it!).
Wow. REED just keeps going man. That's gonna make a TASR like move. I'm surprised Stephen Stewart hasn't recommended it.
ReplyDeleteToo many damn bears...jeez. I turned on CNBC and all I heard was bears. Nomura sees 25% drop. Goldman expects 10% drop. Several traders said they agree. I think this little pullback today stops and we end higher again. I think a pullback is coming but not today. Could be wrong but just seems to easy.
ReplyDeleteYeah, just browsing around mt Twitter feed and Seeking Alpha and the bears are jumping on this very minor pullback (that I can't even see on the daily chart) like it's the complete end of the bull.
DeleteWhat I'm seeing is a rotation out of some of the bigcaps like AAPL into the smallcaps and commodities. Davids's TSX smallcap's are still up over 1% today.
This is healthy for the longer term of the market.
Damn, this market is schizoid! I'd rather go short by TZA than anything right now...
ReplyDeleteBOIL - Okay, it seems I can trade BOIL so I placed an order at $41 in case these dopes smack it down again today. Seems not a good instrument though b/c of the leverage WS will simply knock it around to create decay and it goes nowhere even though natty rises.
Since lows:
DeleteUNG - 29%
BOIL - 37%
UGAZ - 60%
This is from 8/17/12 close and includes two big pull backs.
Take a look at how FAS performed off the lows in March 2009. Up 7 fold from March 2009 to October 2009. I think UGAZ does the same kind of move. UGAZ is where FAS was in July 2009. Up 100%+ in 2 months.
BOIL - F-dis, cancel bid. I'm going for another boat ride....
ReplyDeleteI would too!!
DeleteI am glad to see the miners participating in today's silver/gold rally. If they didn't, then I would have started buying puts on silver, as the rally would have been most likely a simple manipulation by some hedge funds. But since this rally is broad, it means that EVERYONE is warming up to PMs, implying that there are indeed good reasons for that.
ReplyDeletenice to see AUMN rallying. it looked fantastic a couple of days ago and now price is confirming what looked good.
DeleteAUMN closed today at exactly the level of the previous two peaks, made in early June and early July. If AUMN rises above this level, say to $6, then we could say that a new long-term trend has begun -- do you agree, folks?
DeleteLooks great David. 6 might be a tricky area. One step at a time though. Let's hope she can hold this level first.
DeletePlaced a sell limit order at $1 for 8 October $5 AUMN calls I have in one of my accounts. Since I purchased a bunch of January calls on AUMN when it was at $4, I'll consider the sale of October calls (if successful) as the second step in a roll-over of my options to a longer time horizon.
DeleteIn another account I found 10 more such calls, and I placed a sell limit order at $1.50 for them.
DeleteHow many accounts do you have David?
DeleteI have trading accounts at Scottrade, ETrade, OptionsHouse, and Fidelity. Each one is best suited for some particular trades...
DeleteDELL/CSCO - Both have huge gaps to fill. Cisco filled a big gap while creating another one. Dell has a huge gap and is down after hours with forecast and earnings. CP or anyone? I kind of like DELL on fundies.
ReplyDeleteIllini - DELL will have as much cash as it is worth in about 2 years. Enough said.
DeleteNotice, folks, that SLV, GDXJ, and AUMN have all closed today at the level of their early June highs. This is the moment of truth for the PM sector -- once the June highs are surpassed, a new long-term rally will have begun.
ReplyDeleteYep, the dollar is sitting very close to it's lower 1 year trend line.
Deleteevening fellas,
ReplyDeleteSold half my SLV position at 28.52 and moved my stop up to my original purchase on the other half. My original plan was to sell at 28.44 but today was my first day back to work after my vaca and I forgot to put the order in this morn so I lucked out when I remembered to look at prices this afternoon.
I also didn't look at RYN till this afternoon and by then I wasn't interested in opening new longs. I did buy 5 DEC 135 strike puts for $3.78. That's all I'm gonna spec on the short side unless I get some confirmation that we trending down for a bit.
http://www.objectivetrader.com/2012/08/the-big-short-part-1-.html
ReplyDeleteThis guy is worth reading at the least.
Local boys did great tonight in the LLWS. Crazy chit to see these kids Kendra played ball with.
TOF - I have some NOK at an average of $2.44. What are you thinking? I'm actually thinking of selling it all at the moment just to raise a little more cash. If I sell, I'd also consider selling short some Oct 2.50 strike puts, currently at .26 / .28, on a pullback. If I could sell the 2.50 PUT at .35, that would make my basis around 2.37ish on a 1000 shares.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking Hungary is cheaper to do business in than Austria.
Nokia to Move Central Europe HQ to Hungary from Austria - Report
5:35 AM ET 8/21/12 | Dow Jones
BUDAPEST--Finland's Nokia Corp. (NOK) will relocate its Central European headquarters to Budapest from Vienna, Austrian daily Die Presse reported Monday, citing a spokeswoman for Nokia Austria.
The Austrian headquarters employs 60 people, some of whom will be employed in Budapest--"Those who the firm can persuade to move," the spokeswoman, Alma Mautner, told the daily.
The relocation comes as the company seeks to streamline its operations and return to profit after a string of losses amid falling market share in the mobile-phone market. Nokia has been cutting headcount globally since 2011, with the aim of eliminating 17,000 jobs. It has laid off 2,300 of 4,400 staff at its Hungarian plant.
Port - I would hold on to NOK and keep it for a long while. You're more of a longer term oriented investor than I am. I'm hoping to re-enter on a pullback but we all know how that works out.
DeleteIf the TT sentiment starts getting negative I'm gonna sell out of my DOW and PHM shares too. They are both kinda just sitting there. Tomorrow afternoon might be interesting.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I'm sure I speak for all of us here when I say we would like to see a presentation similar to this...
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/820881-nokia-patent-portfolio-an-untapped-goldmine?v=1345598430&source=tracking_notify
...prior to any further stock recommendations.
Thank you in advance.
Great article. Just reinforces my belief that NOK is worth $4.50 to $5.00.
DeleteNSPH - I'm still hoping this one comes back to me, ($2.3's), I last sold mine at $3.06 I see it reached a new high today though...
ReplyDeleteI love analyzing bottoming patterns to see if they set up similarly. In July 2009, the market pulled back to the 200 DMA. It blast above it after bottoming out 4 months earlier. MACD dipped into negative territory and the 200 DMA was still downsloping. However, the 50 DMA crossed above the 200 DMA and the market quickly found its footing. I remember this vividly because this was my all clear signal to go long any and everything and to stay long.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC+Interactive#symbol=^gspc;range=20081226,20091028;compare=;indicator=sma%2850,200%29+volume+stochasticslow;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The chart of Nat Gas is setting up identically to this.
Check this out:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NATGAS&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p94684137159
CP- You follow MCP? It's just below the recent offer price. Kinda interesting here.
ReplyDeleteLooks like everyone is hanging out on 2nd Ave.
ReplyDeleteSee you ladies at the close.
you still in cash?
DeleteOn my way to Holland for the next couple of weeks to visit with the wife's family. Will check in once in a while to keep up on things, but, for some reason, she doesn't consider watching the market quality family time.
ReplyDeleteGood luck with the market while I'm gone!
I'd like to go to Holland, wouldn' shoe?
DeleteSo I hear Bundesbank isn't responding/confirming Dhragi's plan for buying Spain/Italy "mispriced" debt?
ReplyDeleteI suppose the question remains unanswered if buying the debt is within the EU charter.
DBB - This ETF might decide it's time to leave the downtrend channel.
ReplyDeleteMCP - Mark, last time I looked at this one, it was pretty beat up and approaching an interesting area. There are dangers?
1) China loosens their export quota
2) Metals head back down as European authorities disappoint?
Looks like it's getting into important support area... Some upside pressure is probably forming.
BOIL - Okay, got a $41 stinky placed on this one...
ReplyDeleteI'm nervous about tomorrow's report to be completely honest. This is going to move Natty 10% up or down.
DeleteDECK - $50 support - Wonder if this one will follow the market higher if we do see further rally?
ReplyDeleteWhat just happened at 2pm EST???
ReplyDeleteok, rally on? that's what I'm hearing, good or bad the fed appears to have their finger on the trigger. You guys hearing something different?
ReplyDeleteAh, the Fed minutes were released...
ReplyDeletebut shouldn't we fade the first move? so maybe it goes down then rallies on to new QE hoping highs?
ReplyDeleteWell, for what it's worth, SLV is trading above its June peak right now. If it holds, then a fire will be lit under PM miners, as investors will realize that future declines in gold/silver (as everyone was expecting) are no longer in the cards, and they need to completely reprice the miners...
ReplyDeletesold my dec spy puts for $30 profit.
ReplyDeleteSold my DOW shares tody, it wasn't moving much anyway.
Think I'll wait for the last hour but my inclination is to buy calls on spy or sso. From what I'm hearing on CNBC, it sounds like more QE is on the way unless we see a significant improvement in the economic indicators. I'm sure oil trading back up is a drag on the economy but that shouldn't show up for a few weeks.
david, good point, maybe calls on GDXJ would be better.
ReplyDeleteHere is what I am getting from
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nasdaq.com/markets/us-economic-calendar.aspx
"Highlights
The debate within the Fed about potential additional policy actions has heated up according to the latest FOMC minutes. Many participants said more accommodation is needed unless there is substantial improvement in the economy. But participants also indicated that discussion of the costs and benefits of additional quantitative easing was useful. Some questioned the efficacy of a QE3. Many participants supported extending guidance but to wait for the September meeting for a decision."
So we may get some interesting announcement during the September meeting? Just when everyone thinks the Fed will stay put so as not to be accused of playing politics?
TOF- Yep. Sold my F and GALE for small gains each about a week ago.
ReplyDeleteGet on board, folks! The PM rally is here to stay! GDXJ also just broke above its June peak.
ReplyDeletetechnical look at MMM which I mentioned the other day.
ReplyDeleteI had mentioned 92 or 92.50 as a buy point, I'm adjusting that. A better entry would be a daily print down to the 30 day EMA, an intraday drop of at least $.70 from the open, probably set stops $1.00 or so below the most recent 3 day low. At the moment it looks like it need to trade down to 91 ish. Now that I'm on it I'm sure it will gap up $10 or so.
hmm, i had my think or swim up, was so focused on looking at charts i forgot we were close to close. Didn't buy a thing. Oh well,
ReplyDeleteI just returned from boating and I see the dollar took a swan dive at 14:00, must've been the FED minutes release.
ReplyDeleteTLT - Wow, T's were a hot ticket today with a lower dollar?
ReplyDeleteI fail to see why anyone would want to stay in dollars, that's what T's essentially are...
DBB - Closed over the 50SMA, how about that!
ReplyDeleteOkay, so should I ask now if the FED actually made a move, or the ECB actually bought Spanish debt???
ReplyDeleteWho the hell cares? That stuff is macro which is manipulated until the bond vigilantes take over. It's downhill from there but I am sticking with NSPH and PHYS for the long haul. Add a little RBY to that and some GEVO. Very recently ditched MUX but too soon albeit at a small profit. Cash is about 50%. Do not use me as a gauge for a very successful investor. Just telling.
ReplyDeleteGEVO- What's your basis. I like the chart.
DeleteI just read a quick discription. What can you fill in.
DeleteCP- This might be in your wheel house.
GEVO - Why this one, specifically, as opposed to MEOH?
DeleteI like the beat-up chart though, my kind of chart...
DeleteWHen I look at the weekly chart of EUR/USD,it looks like a head and shoulders with a top of 149 and a neckline of 126. That would suggest it goes to $1.03. This is a pretty long term pattern. I show the left part of the shoulder started on 8/23/10 with the right shoulder completing the pattern on 5/14/12.
ReplyDeleteIt shows up on EUO but not as clean as on the futures.
Parity, how convenient!
DeleteFirst time in MONTHS I see gold/silver being bought during Asian trading hours -- I suppose Europeans are beginning to accept the fact that gold/silver are in an uptrend and hence they try to buy *first*, before European/US trading kicks in.
ReplyDeleteBOIL/UGAZ - LOL, do these two instruments even track the price of natty, or something else entirely?
ReplyDeleteThese must track loosely, just as the entire market tracks reality loosely.
DeleteGEVO- Is the tech legit/real?
ReplyDeleteWhat, converting grains into plastics, rubber, and fuel? I'd say it's real, expensive, in comparison to using oil. What may not be real is the environmentally friendly aspect.
DeleteKinda like nuclear power, the uranium mining process uses hydrocarbons just as cultivating crops does.
The proliferation of electric cars might enable bio-product profitability?
ADM - How about this one, it's beat up right now b/c the crop size is smaller than normal and they will have lower quantities of grains for processing. At least the company is profitable, there may be a rough spell this year.
you interested in these guys? I only looked briefly at them, seems like that they have some issues (needed to raise additional capital, some type of lawsuit). On the tech side, unless they are figuring out a new way to burn switch grass instead of food (aka corn), I'm not sure how different they are than the other failing ethanol producers (big, huge vacant plant just down the road from me, what a sad story, owners cashed out huge and left shareholders and bondholders high and dry)
DeleteMethanol is the logical solution IMO, making alcohols from natty.
DeleteI hold GEVO and the tech is real and patented, although contested by a competitor. There are several articles from Seeking Alpha. Gevo's advantage is that their technology is efficient in producing a higher value product than ethanol by a simple conversion to an existing ethanol plant. The technology is not solely dependent on grain.
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ReplyDeleteUGA - Another new high
ReplyDeleteBOIL/UGAZ/UNG - Oh Christ, you've got to be kidding...
ReplyDeleteUNG, long at 18.52
ReplyDeleteBOIL - Yeah, I'm long at $41, my "stink" bid was hit "fortunately".
DeleteIt still may work out here, but the big negative here (ST on NG SEP) is we failed right at the 50 dma.
DeleteIf you do not like it CP you can always sell it BOIL is 41.3 by 41.40
I'll most likely be gone by days end.
NM, was hit on earnings. Logistics strong.
ReplyDeleteBeen long may add.
MCP have been long for a few days at 10.03, 1st day acting better.
NOG, looking to get back in missed my 16.42 bid and tis may have been the op for today on this one.
MCP - This does look like a good potential entry.
DeleteUNG out 18.67
ReplyDeleteWow, look at that bar in MITK
ReplyDeleteUNG- I'm sure you guys have your storm charts handy...Later!
ReplyDeletelike a fool i held on to UGAZ when i should have taken nice gains. i still think there is a big production cut coming on the heels of what has been a total crash in rig counts. it's holding the 200 DMA for now.
ReplyDeleteNormal shit, or did something really happen? I guess I should start looking to see WTFIU...
DeleteOh I see, EIA report was more in storage than expected.
DeleteAs good a place as any to consider going long, probably.
The one biggie about natty that I just can't reconcile in my head is how the captured gas from so many sources(perhaps logistics of sources is key to this question) is transported to point of use.
DeleteThere should be a lot of gas in coal beds as well, I would imagine...
NSPH - There's an untested bar at 3.35, thus I've got a bid there.
ReplyDeleteSure seems like this company has huge potential for future sales.
BOIL - It just amazes me how much this thing jumps around, $0.50 in minutes seems normal.
ReplyDeleteThis makes me think someone is putting on a show to make it look too scary.
CP - Nat Gas is historically very volatile. Just look at a long term chart...spikes from $2 to $8 isn't uncommon.
DeleteJust imagine being heavily long UGAZ!
DeleteTOF your an excellent trader, but 30 years from now your going to have a few grays hairs from this. No that's not 50 shades of grey either.
DeleteNGAS is one volatile lassy.
T3d - I hear ya man! I'm surprised I don't have any yet. It's coming.
DeleteSD - Are there any good reasons for not buying the heck out of this thing?
ReplyDeleteTLT
ReplyDelete132.77 H
120.52 L
126.37 is .5 retrace, so may be good spot to go long TBF or TBT.
The other number is 125.58 which is 50 dma, opportunity should be in this area.
NOK IS RIPPING
ReplyDeleteSo disappointed in my decision to bail on NOK and switch to natty. Such is life.
DeleteEach time I hit new highs in my port and start feeling confident after a nice run I tell myself to just move to cash because a big drop is coming. Each time I ignore my own advice. Still above the Feb highs but if I sold UGAZ last night after hours I would be feeling a lot better.
Folks, it is time to start a new page, don't you think?
ReplyDeleteMark -- would you like to create one?
BOIL - Out at $42.48, headed for afternoon boat ride and refuel at local marina...
ReplyDeletehonestly, for some weird reason I have basically looked at the natty trade with complete apathy. i think the reason is because when i first started buying it crashed immediately after and set the tone for the trade.
ReplyDelete