I can't think of a single reason to be long any of the global indexes right now. That probably means they move higher in the short term. Longer term, it doesn't look good.
bought SSO today at 59.14 with a stop at 57.57 which is a smidge below friday or thursdays low. First sell target is 60.73.
I had an order to sell 500 NOK but it never reached it. I'm hoping for tof's 3.50 in the next day or two. It seems that I should sell on a pop early in the morn when it happens.
madd was doing lots of stuff, in the money bull sep call spread on AAPL and GLD, long YCS. I did the long YCS and GLD call spread. I'm not that comfortable with AAPL which means it just rockets up. I don't plan on buying anything else before the middle of next week. I'd like to get through some of these central bank announcements.
UNG/UGAZ> there's no way to predict the ST moves. Thought about entry premarket and decided against it, only to see what would have been a 2% pop at the open.
Has a gap down from 11 trading 10.87, may take half off here, if so will add back as this has good potential going forward for demand of rare elements.
You would think a Cat 1 following a path similar to Katrina would put in a floor for NGas prices. So it must be a case of 'too many thinking the same thing.'
Thanks T3D, we'll check out the funds and let you know what we come up with. My coworker recently sold some stocks he's been holding for 2 or 3 years. He did pretty well. JNJ was one of them. I'll ask him for his input too. I still like the fund 2nd referred to simply because they do move a large portion of their portfolio to cash from time to time.
good job. would be nice to see a rally here today. been a brutal week/month for natty. perhaps the best thing for it is to close on its lows of the month.
what would scare people the most is probably a drop down to $2.50 to form a double bottom. This is setting up to form a bullish wedge pattern I believe.
Silver/gold - Just yesterday I read all kind of claims that PM's were on the verge of breaking out of bull flags on a march to new highs, looks like today's dollar action put a little kink in that plan...
Gas fell as much as 0.7 percent after Hurricane Isaac came ashore in southeastern Louisiana at 6:45 p.m. local time yesterday. The storm may decrease industrial consumption for natural gas by 1.5 billion cubic feet a day, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said in a report e-mailed today.
“Isaac will also bring colder temperatures, reducing cooling demand and therefore power generation demand for natural gas,” Stefan Wieler, an analyst at Goldman Sachs in New York, said in the report."
________________ Goldman is at it again? But they're in the best interests of their clients!
i don't know if this is a call per se but their other most recent calls:
Sell Nat Gas in April 2012 Generational Buying Opportunity - Entire Market - Jan/Feb 2012 Short Market - June 2012 FSLR is going to $8 - June 2012 NOK is going to $1.3 EUR - July 2012 and August 2012
I for one, can feel the cooler temps. AC has been off for about a week now, won't need as much electricity for another month or so till the heat pump gets switched to heat mode.
The market anticipates these phenomenon, I suppose.
"It'll take more than a storm to fix natural gas," this Houston native predicts in the attached clip. As much as natural gas has had a great spring, it has noticeably weakened in the past few weeks, shedding 16% so far this month, and is down over 40% since it touched a $4.00 high last November.
"What you're trying to do is to create a market for natural gas that didn't exist before," he explains, "and that takes a long time to do." Until it does exist, he says it's sheer fact that the supply curve is way ahead of demand curve.
While Nat Gas is not a trade Kanaly Trust is currently recommending to clients, their CEO says it gets attractive somewhere around $2.00.
In the meantime, he's also not ruling out a short-term, storm-disrupted run in crude price that could take oil back above $100 again (for the first time since May).
Still, long before Isaac turned into the Gulf, the Energy Sector (XLE) was leading the market's mid-summer charge and, in the eyes of Kanaly, will continue to be a good place to invest — storm or not.
i think most retail traders were like me and thought there was a bottom in place around $2.69. when it broke below there lots of stops were hit. when it rallied and then fizzled out yesterday the majority of retail traders sold right into the hands of goldman, who issued a negative report yesterday on demand collapsing from the hurricane....ahhh the ultimate set up to go long indeed.
draw a trendline under weekly or daily lows and you will see what I mean. Yesterday the fellows undercut it or as you say sold the living dung out of it.
I have NOK .5 retrace at 2.51 (3.39/1.63) and the 50 dma at 2.5
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/highschool-prep-rally/mother-loses-job-cheer-son-husband-little-league-160800643.html
ReplyDeleteThey take sports seriously in Petaluma.
Bout all be got here...and chickens of course.
DeleteNOK - Okay, so today AAPL used (in court?) a NOK phone as an example of how a smartphone can be designed so that it doesn't infringe on APPL IP.
ReplyDeleteI can't think of a single reason to be long any of the global indexes right now. That probably means they move higher in the short term. Longer term, it doesn't look good.
ReplyDelete2nd - i actually think the reverse: sells off now then rises later.
Deletebought SSO today at 59.14 with a stop at 57.57 which is a smidge below friday or thursdays low. First sell target is 60.73.
ReplyDeleteI had an order to sell 500 NOK but it never reached it. I'm hoping for tof's 3.50 in the next day or two. It seems that I should sell on a pop early in the morn when it happens.
madd was doing lots of stuff, in the money bull sep call spread on AAPL and GLD, long YCS. I did the long YCS and GLD call spread. I'm not that comfortable with AAPL which means it just rockets up. I don't plan on buying anything else before the middle of next week. I'd like to get through some of these central bank announcements.
I was watching ugaz, that thing is crazy.
port...my initial target on NOK was 100% off bottom or $3.25. I think it got to $3.5 pre market yesterday. Helluva move.
Deletemadd did a write up on gold recently. Here's the link and I don't think you need a login ID.
ReplyDeleteHe prefers futures or GLD to miners though due to the physical risk.
http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/gold-is-just-getting-started/
UNG/UGAZ> there's no way to predict the ST moves. Thought about entry premarket and decided against it, only to see what would have been a 2% pop at the open.
ReplyDeletePersonally, the definition of 'play to win' right now is to sit tight.
ReplyDeletei agree...i think we will get a pullback to 1,330 but it will be very brief and it's best to just look for long opportunities.
DeleteBOIL - Stinky @ $37.50 Let's see if we can get another dollar out of it...
ReplyDeleteDollar looks pretty weak this morning for some reason, hopefully it can look a bit healthier in a couple hours...
ReplyDeleteJJC - Will this one test $43.61 support today?
ReplyDeleteLPR????
ReplyDeleteNSPH - New high
ReplyDeleteVolume to boot. Only thing I see is a SA article.
DeleteBOIL - Wow, this thing's actually lost 56% so far this month...
ReplyDeleteUNG/UGAZ/BOIL - These sure look like a decent place to attempt an entry
ReplyDeleteI believe the symbols should be UGH / UGAG / TOAST
DeleteYeah, as long as natty keeps selling off.
DeleteGartman - Went to sidelines
ReplyDeleteTVIX - Is this thing kinda cheap, going into Bernanke's dog and pony show?
ReplyDeleteBOIL - Dropped my bid another buck to $26.50
ReplyDelete$36.50, that is...
DeleteBOIL - Reminds me of Silver last year this time.
ReplyDeleteMCP started up its new mine.
ReplyDeleteHas a gap down from 11 trading 10.87, may take half off here, if so will add back as this has good potential going forward for demand of rare elements.
Very strong volu at the 10 level
Port, this is for you. You may want to look into alphaclone for your LT choice that you were talking about recently.
ReplyDeletehttp://alphaclone.com/mutualfund_investor.html
or
http://blog.alphaclone.com/
They have one called Value Masters since you seem to like value. Cheers.
Taking another swing at UGAZ @ 20.24...
ReplyDeleteCaught her with another man! So I shot her!
DeleteIn case anyone's wondering, I haven't closed my latest position. I think we see a decent spike within the next 24 hours.
DeleteYou would think a Cat 1 following a path similar to Katrina would put in a floor for NGas prices. So it must be a case of 'too many thinking the same thing.'
ReplyDeletethat plus there is actually demand destruction in addition to supply destruction. nat gas looks very weak and susceptible to a big drop.
DeleteThanks T3D, we'll check out the funds and let you know what we come up with. My coworker recently sold some stocks he's been holding for 2 or 3 years. He did pretty well. JNJ was one of them. I'll ask him for his input too. I still like the fund 2nd referred to simply because they do move a large portion of their portfolio to cash from time to time.
ReplyDeletesold all my NOK today. That was a total return of 25%. Too bad I only bought 2000 and not 20,000 shares.
ReplyDeletethanks tof
sold all 230 of my PHM shares. it was a puny position that was getting on my nerves. I made some lunch money.
ReplyDeleteKOL - Looks like IH&S
ReplyDeleteBOIL - Stink bid @ $36,32
ReplyDeleteI forget, did MOG say to look for lower NG prices?
I think he said it would be right about here for now. I'll be starting his new project soon so will have better access.
DeleteOkay thanks, have you ordered the materials? Get jiggy with it! ;)
DeleteUGAZ closed @ 20.4x.
ReplyDeletegood job. would be nice to see a rally here today. been a brutal week/month for natty. perhaps the best thing for it is to close on its lows of the month.
DeleteJumped the gun.
Deletebetter than putting the gun in your mouth and pulling the trigger.
DeleteSo assuming this retest fails as anticipated, either WTIC must fall or NG must rise.
ReplyDeleteJJG @ 62.97. My first 'Deron' trade.
ReplyDeleteCOW - I guess beef prices will be rising once the cattle are sold off.
DeleteMan oh man it's quiet out there...
ReplyDeleteIs it Friday yet?
DeleteNot yet, meanwhile we're forced to put up with the nonsense.
DeleteJJG closed @ 63.34...
ReplyDeleteNOK - Where's this one gonna reach equilibrium, I've got a stinky on it at $2.47 but thinking of lowering it...
ReplyDeleteCP - Here's my thinking:
Delete$2.60 = 25% drop
$2.75 = 20% drop
50% retracement = $2.55.
Having said that, I would start scaling in now if I wasn't still in the shitty nat gas trade.
what would scare people the most is probably a drop down to $2.50 to form a double bottom. This is setting up to form a bullish wedge pattern I believe.
DeleteSilver/gold - Just yesterday I read all kind of claims that PM's were on the verge of breaking out of bull flags on a march to new highs, looks like today's dollar action put a little kink in that plan...
ReplyDeleteEWZ - Ouch, ouchie!
ReplyDeleteCleared out all MCP at 10.83, 11.28, and 11.48.
ReplyDeleteWill look to buy back.
NOG looks interesting to re-establish.
Did you see the open on MGIC?
UNG still long
MCP - Nice work! ;)
DeleteGas fell as much as 0.7 percent after Hurricane Isaac came ashore in southeastern Louisiana at 6:45 p.m. local time yesterday. The storm may decrease industrial consumption for natural gas by 1.5 billion cubic feet a day, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said in a report e-mailed today.
ReplyDelete“Isaac will also bring colder temperatures, reducing cooling demand and therefore power generation demand for natural gas,” Stefan Wieler, an analyst at Goldman Sachs in New York, said in the report."
________________
Goldman is at it again? But they're in the best interests of their clients!
i don't know if this is a call per se but their other most recent calls:
DeleteSell Nat Gas in April 2012
Generational Buying Opportunity - Entire Market - Jan/Feb 2012
Short Market - June 2012
FSLR is going to $8 - June 2012
NOK is going to $1.3 EUR - July 2012 and August 2012
I for one, can feel the cooler temps. AC has been off for about a week now, won't need as much electricity for another month or so till the heat pump gets switched to heat mode.
DeleteThe market anticipates these phenomenon, I suppose.
That's why they call this the injection season.
Delete"It'll take more than a storm to fix natural gas," this Houston native predicts in the attached clip. As much as natural gas has had a great spring, it has noticeably weakened in the past few weeks, shedding 16% so far this month, and is down over 40% since it touched a $4.00 high last November.
Delete"What you're trying to do is to create a market for natural gas that didn't exist before," he explains, "and that takes a long time to do." Until it does exist, he says it's sheer fact that the supply curve is way ahead of demand curve.
While Nat Gas is not a trade Kanaly Trust is currently recommending to clients, their CEO says it gets attractive somewhere around $2.00.
In the meantime, he's also not ruling out a short-term, storm-disrupted run in crude price that could take oil back above $100 again (for the first time since May).
Still, long before Isaac turned into the Gulf, the Energy Sector (XLE) was leading the market's mid-summer charge and, in the eyes of Kanaly, will continue to be a good place to invest — storm or not.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/isaac-won-t-save-natural-gas-demand-infrastructure-161534546.html
BOIL/UNG - Something lit these on fire, not sure what it was...
DeleteAll that's necessary to make NG drop like a rock from here is for me to buy it...
DeleteDo not think like that although it does seem like that sometimes.
DeleteGuess I sold my tickets too soon, what's new.
NGAS, looking at the charts (futes) aggressive traders would be buying. The fly is contango.
BOIL - RSI(7) rose up through 30 today... Last time this signal occurred, BOIL had four more dollars of downside left in it.
DeleteInterestingly, MACD put in a new higher level at peak, end of July.
I don't see how production could ever keep up with demand if coal is really being put out to pasture.
Aggressive traders were selling the living shit outta NGAS just yesterday! ;)
Deletei think most retail traders were like me and thought there was a bottom in place around $2.69. when it broke below there lots of stops were hit. when it rallied and then fizzled out yesterday the majority of retail traders sold right into the hands of goldman, who issued a negative report yesterday on demand collapsing from the hurricane....ahhh the ultimate set up to go long indeed.
DeleteNG Jan 13
Deletedraw a trendline under weekly or daily lows and you will see what I mean. Yesterday the fellows undercut it or as you say sold the living dung out of it.
I have NOK .5 retrace at 2.51 (3.39/1.63) and the 50 dma at 2.5
Agreed, there's no doubt in my mind GS is more a trading and market rigger than an investor. Someone drove silver to $49 last year, it wasn't me...
DeleteNice little move in APKT.
ReplyDelete