Thursday, August 30, 2012

8/30/12 Jackson Hole

Can you believe the number of shot-callers in the media? Not only are they trying to predict what Bernanke will say, they're mapping game plans for how to play it. The right thing to do? Sit back, relax, and watch what happens. Then continue trading. There may be fireworks, or Ben may simply unveil his version of 'Nothing to see here. Move along.' (Obviously, I hold a bearish view looking ahead the next few months, which is far more important to my trading stance than what happens tomorrow.)
Posted by at

58 comments:

  1. ChickenpookieAugust 30, 2012 at 5:26 PM

    PII - Check this one out, is this a Landry setup, which way is the coil gonna break?

    It's so far into the pennant, the breakout should be false, right???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousAugust 30, 2012 at 6:55 PM

      helluva 5 yr chart...i just tend to prefer buying stuff after its beaten down and bottomed out. thats not to say this aint a winner.

      Delete
    2. Port2017August 31, 2012 at 4:15 AM

      i would say it's not a Landry trade using the 10 20 30 MAs. This looks more like a wedge to me with it making lower highs over the last 4 weeks. I believe Dan Fitzpatrick(spelling) would call this a volatility squeeze and you can trade the breakout with a stop in the wedge somewhere if the breakout fails.

      Delete
  2. Telestar3dAugust 30, 2012 at 11:04 PM

    Good Gas article:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/838071-the-beauty-of-natural-gas-transportation

    ReplyDelete
  3. KyleAugust 31, 2012 at 5:54 AM

    Nice 5yr $USD chart ...

    Springheel Jack ‏@shjackcharts
    #DX #USD My DX 5Yr Chart showing the huge significance of the support test today:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack/folders/1209/media/2c4ab912-5d8c-4ccc-92f1-2f3cb56a7700

    ReplyDelete
  4. MarkWAugust 31, 2012 at 7:06 AM

    So do we play off the initial reaction or pull more splinters???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousAugust 31, 2012 at 7:12 AM

      what happened? i'm not really paying attention? let me guess...no QE?

      Delete
    2. MarkWAugust 31, 2012 at 7:19 AM

      Yeah, nothing specific enough I guess.

      Delete
  5. 2nd_aveAugust 31, 2012 at 7:11 AM

    Picked up a little TZA @ 17.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2nd_aveAugust 31, 2012 at 7:13 AM

      And paying an immediate price for doing so.

      Delete
    2. 2nd_aveAugust 31, 2012 at 7:20 AM

      Closed at 16.68. ----. I should have known better.

      Delete
  6. ChickenpookieAugust 31, 2012 at 7:18 AM

    One look at gold tells me Ben didn't kick the dollar in the shins.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieAugust 31, 2012 at 7:26 AM

      I take that back, sent the dollar into stepchild status...

      Delete
  7. MarkWAugust 31, 2012 at 7:20 AM

    DDMG- I swear I've never seen anything like this sucker.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MarkWAugust 31, 2012 at 7:25 AM

      S2 is 1.70. Wow.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousAugust 31, 2012 at 7:27 AM

      wow dude. that is setting up for a huge snap back rally. one of the lowest RSI readings I've ever seen. what's the deal over there?

      Delete
    3. MarkWAugust 31, 2012 at 7:35 AM

      It's the special effects Co. that did the Tupac thing. The tech is really wild. The CEO borrowed like 12M to buy shares from on of the Co's largest investors. The Florida Gov. also kicked in a bunch of $'s for a 'tech park' in Florida.

      Delete
    4. AnonymousAugust 31, 2012 at 7:39 AM

      yeah i'm reading the conf call notes. they got $100 Million from Abu Dhabi after teh quarter close I believe so cash shouldn't be an issue. I would be looking to go long here with a long leash. Could see $4 in a heart beat after people stop freaking out.

      Delete
    5. AnonymousAugust 31, 2012 at 7:41 AM

      RSI7 got down to 5. the spike down was on lower vol than the spikes down from yesterday on the hourly chart. could be a sign of a bottom.

      i'm all in on natty so i won't be playing it but i probably should.

      Delete
  8. 2nd_aveAugust 31, 2012 at 7:39 AM

    What I'm guilty of: thinking that making a few bucks with a quick trade would be easy. It's never easy.

    ReplyDelete
  9. AnonymousAugust 31, 2012 at 7:42 AM

    what i'm hoping for with natty is a run to $2.80 today followed by some weakness into the close and a close around $2.76 or so. lots of traders are bearish on nat gas and believe $2.80 is a big resistance point. that would set the stage for a gap higher on tuesday and a nice rally all next week.

    ReplyDelete
  10. 2nd_aveAugust 31, 2012 at 7:55 AM

    One of Landry's anecdotes just came back to me. He was reminiscing about his early days, including a stretch where every move he made seemed to be wrong. He was then struck by the fact that he was splashing around in a flat market. Sometimes just walking away until a set up emerges can change your outlook in a snap.

    ReplyDelete
  11. 2nd_aveAugust 31, 2012 at 7:56 AM

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-price-target-cut-to-15-by-bmo-capital-2012-08-31

    What else is new?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieAugust 31, 2012 at 8:13 AM

      I bet it never sees $15! Although, I agree it's a POS...

      Delete
    2. AnonymousAugust 31, 2012 at 9:34 AM

      wait until goldman recommends to sell it.

      Delete
    3. AnonymousAugust 31, 2012 at 9:35 AM

      then buy the hell out of it.

      Delete
  12. AnonymousAugust 31, 2012 at 8:08 AM

    boy the daily chart on silver is almost identical to the hourly chart on nat gas. three touches on the downtrend line. Nat gas just broke above the down trend. is it a false breakout? can silver break out here?

    ReplyDelete
  13. KyleAugust 31, 2012 at 8:09 AM

    2nd - FWIW I've been following this guys trading approach for the past couple of months:

    http://stocktwits.com/TradingFibz

    He only trades TF_F but I use it w IWM and TNA.

    A very nice and tight approach using 2 EMAs (e5-e34) on Heikin-Ashi candle charts.

    http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:heikin_ashi

    May be of some interest...

    ReplyDelete
  14. ChickenpookieAugust 31, 2012 at 8:10 AM

    UP dollar, up, up, go the F' up!!!

    PARITY or BUST!!!

    ReplyDelete
  15. ChickenpookieAugust 31, 2012 at 8:53 AM

    JJC - $43.70 - Can it hold into close? I bet it does...

    ReplyDelete
  16. AnonymousAugust 31, 2012 at 9:49 AM

    contrary to every trader's opinion, I think nat gas will see new highs within the next month.

    ReplyDelete
  17. AnonymousAugust 31, 2012 at 10:00 AM

    That sure looks like a bullish wedge in the dollar. Supports what I think would be a drop in the market over the next month or two. Only long I want to hold on to is Nat Gas right now.

    ReplyDelete
  18. 2nd_aveAugust 31, 2012 at 10:26 AM

    Narrowed my loss on TZA to -$68 by opening @ 16.45 and closing @ 16.75...

    ReplyDelete
  19. DavidAugust 31, 2012 at 10:40 AM

    What a wild ride in silver/gold that I slept through today! I would have had a heart attack if I had been watching this in real time. :) As it is right now, however, silver seems to have started the next leg up, after all the profit taking that happened over the past week. Now all those who stepped aside will start chasing the price, sending it MUCH higher.

    Strangely enough (or luckily), I see AUMN is still lower now than it has been when SLV first got to this level last week. It will definitely catch up. So with a bid/ask of $1.25/$1.45 for April $5 calls, I placed a buy limit for 10 contracts at $1.40, and after 20 minutes only 5 contracts were bought...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DavidAugust 31, 2012 at 10:47 AM

      So looks like I'll have to resort to the same tactic as yesterday – buying AUMN shares outright. So I just purchased 1K shares at $5.12, complementing 1K shares purchased yesterday at $4.85. Even though AUMN has been lower than this, I am hoping that I am buying “on the right side of the V”, and so it is OK to pay a price that is higher than the recent lows...

      Delete
    2. 2nd_aveAugust 31, 2012 at 11:01 AM

      David- You're joking, right? If today's action is enough to give you a heart attack, you would have been a goner a long time ago.

      Delete
  20. ChickenpookieAugust 31, 2012 at 11:17 AM

    Wake me up when it's time to buy AGQ........

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieAugust 31, 2012 at 11:19 AM

      I meant ZSL, of course...

      Delete
    2. DavidAugust 31, 2012 at 11:37 AM

      You would probably have to go into a winter-long hibernation for that...

      Delete
  21. DavidAugust 31, 2012 at 11:21 AM

    Looks like AUMN traders got the message... :)

    ReplyDelete
  22. DavidAugust 31, 2012 at 11:33 AM

    I just noticed that AUMN put out a production update for Velardena last night (or maybe this morning):

    http://www.goldenminerals.com/pdfs/GLDN_InvestorKit/Press-Release-Aug-30-12-Velardena-Update.pdf

    How can anyone in the right mind short a company with such production plans? Or skip buying it at $5?

    ReplyDelete
  23. DavidAugust 31, 2012 at 11:35 AM

    My bid for AUMN calls is no longer the lowest bid, so I canceled that order (for 5 remaining calls, after 5 were already purchased) just to see my real buying power (when an order is hanging out there, my buying power is reduced).

    ReplyDelete
  24. AnonymousAugust 31, 2012 at 11:48 AM

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/786381-natural-gas-40-rigs-can-maintain-haynesville-production-plateau

    From this link:

    "During Ultra's 2Q earnings conference call on August 2, Michael Watford re-iterated his macro perspective on natural gas: "Capital is being withdrawn from natural gas investment as seen in the rig count reduction and pressure pumping softness. Production lags capital expenditures and the decline in production is imminent. We see $4 gas in 2013 and $5 gas in 2014." With regard to Haynesville specifically, he commented: "We have a view that says: production supply is about to shrink pretty rapidly. I think there are some comments out yesterday, with some companies that announced and talked about the Haynesville, that they would see a 10% per quarter reduction in their production. I think it is plus or minus 40% for the year. If you apply that to the 6 Bcf per day of Haynesville production, it is 2.5 Bcf per day of annual rate reduction, so I think we are about to see a drop off in supply."

    Maybe the market is sniffing this out and is the reason why Nat Gas won't go down despite a mildly bearish report yesterday? I still think the parallel holds to the overall market in July 2009. I believe there is a high chance of a gap higher on Tuesday.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MarkWAugust 31, 2012 at 12:06 PM

      I think MOG would agree with the 2013/14 numbers.

      Delete
  25. DavidAugust 31, 2012 at 12:28 PM

    If AUMN would not have been so cheap, I would have diversified into NG. But as it is right now, I think the expected 1-year return from AUMN is much better than from any NG play...

    ReplyDelete
  26. DavidAugust 31, 2012 at 12:29 PM

    Once AUMN rises above $10, however, I will start gradually withdrawing money from it, and possibly diversifying into NG...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieAugust 31, 2012 at 1:04 PM

      You know I'd love to see AUMN go to $20 simply for your benefit, if for no other reason.

      Delete
    2. DavidAugust 31, 2012 at 2:22 PM

      Thanks!

      Delete
  27. ChickenpookieAugust 31, 2012 at 12:46 PM

    $USD - Why is it the dollar always seems to move BMO between the hours of 02:00 and 09:00 ?

    ReplyDelete
  28. ChickenpookieAugust 31, 2012 at 1:09 PM

    BOIL - While this one might be getting away from me, at least I can say TBF is headed in my direction...

    ReplyDelete
  29. AnonymousAugust 31, 2012 at 1:15 PM

    SVNT looks like it could have a big drop over the next couple of weeks...i'm thinking $1.1 or as low as $0.87 and it is still in a solid up trend.

    ReplyDelete
  30. ChickenpookieAugust 31, 2012 at 1:21 PM

    SAN - $7, BAC - $8

    ReplyDelete
  31. ChickenpookieAugust 31, 2012 at 1:22 PM

    Colonel Possum's gold target from Last Friday:

    "$1,690 per ounce target"

    ReplyDelete
  32. DavidAugust 31, 2012 at 1:24 PM

    Folks, check out where GLD/SLV are relative to their December 2011 low and where GDXJ is. This smells like a big buying opportunity in GDXJ, 'cause it ultimately have to outperform the metals on the way up.

    ReplyDelete
  33. MarkWAugust 31, 2012 at 4:47 PM

    XRM...Hmmmm...

    ReplyDelete
  34. MarkWAugust 31, 2012 at 4:48 PM

    Looks like NLS want to test 2- 1.80 VWAP area.

    ReplyDelete
  35. 2nd_aveAugust 31, 2012 at 5:33 PM

    new post

    ReplyDelete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)