Sunday, August 5, 2012
8/6/12 Road Map/ The Road Warrior
Global economic collapse? What global economic collapse? I don't pretend to know what's going on, bro. Market action during the next few weeks will likely be confusing, which really means SOS. Road worriers won't be making any money- no, you'll need to be a road warrior. Every time one of those Knight-inspired selloffs unfold, get behind the wheel of your Pursuit Special and run it down. Here's my road map>
(a) Global markets rally through the end of August.
(b) Bears play chicken? No worries- head straight for them, and watch them veer.
(c) FOMC, against all expectations, finally announces QE3 September 12. Sell the ensuing rally.
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2nd - that's the playbook that I think works. Like I said, though, I think it's unwise to be looking to short if we hit new highs. Instead I'd rather just keep some cash on hand and wait for prices to come to me.
ReplyDeletePort > Isn't that Dent guy a character in Bat Man? Seriously, though, anytime I hear someone talking like that my first reaction is what is he trying to sell? maybe it's a book or maybe it's a subscription to his "guru" newsletter?
Nevermind...it's Harvey Dent:
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.setonhill.edu/Batman/I%20Believe.jpg
Hey Guys- Busy 3 day tourny for Kendra. Good time all around. Proud as hell of that little shit.
ReplyDeleteSounds like fun Mark.
ReplyDeleteNews out on SVNT this morning. I still own this and think it will have a huge rally some time soon.
Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SVNT) adopted a stockholder rights plan with a 15% trigger to protect stockholder value amid an ongoing fight with debtholder Tang Capital Partners .
A rights plan, also known as a poison pill, often is used to thwart potential hostile takeover offers by giving other shareholders the right to buy more shares at a discount if one shareholder buys a certain percentage of the company's stock. If approved by holders next year, the plan will expire in 2015.
Savient said its poison pill is designed to reduce the likelihood any person or group would gain control of the company by open marker accumulation or other coercive takeover tactics without paying a control premium for all shares. More specifically, the company pointed to recent efforts by certain convertible noteholders that are adverse to the best interests of the company.
The plan includes a new series of Series A preferred stock and a dividend of one right to buy one 1,000th of a share of the new stock for each share outstanding Aug. 17 .
Savient disclosed in May that Tang Capital Partners had filed a creditor derivative action complaint against the company. At the time, Savient said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that Tang had alleged, among other things, that Savient was insolvent.
Savient, based in New Jersey , said last month the Delaware Court of Chancery decided that Tang Capital Partners and some of Savient's other debtholders didn't have the standing action to appoint a receiver for the company and that Savient Pharmaceuticals hadn't defaulted on its convertible notes.
Savient earlier this year unveiled plans to reduce the size of its workforce by more than a third as it aims to reduce its operating costs by about $56 million by 2013 and also named the then-head of its North American commercial unit, Louis Ferrari , as its new president. Mr. Ferrari was credited with playing a key role in the continuing rollout of the company's Krystexxa treatment for gout and development of the company's growth strategies.
F - Still over $9, is this thing ever going to dump?
ReplyDeleteKCG - Down 34%
ReplyDeleteDMND - Out @ $16.57 for a 0.20 gain
ReplyDeleteOther than KCG, looks kinda dead out there.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think of DMND?
DeleteCheck out CBK...recently triggered a long term buy signal. Net cash is same as market cap.
NLS earnings today. Going to $4.
Volume makes me nervous on DMND. I'll check out CBK.
DeleteBought a ipod shuffle yesterday. Frigging crazy. The thing is the size of a quarter.
F - I can't understand why we're not interested in this one, any quick reasons?
ReplyDeleteI'm long from 9.22.
DeleteGood girl, I just entered an order @ $9.04
DeleteI actually think I might hold this one for a while.
DeleteSWC - I'm guessing my slightly underwater position here moves past $9 if the market doesn't dump soon.
ReplyDeleteDMND - Okay, I left money on the table, placing an order at $16.20
ReplyDeleteVRNG...WTF?
ReplyDeleteOK, partial settlement with AOL.
DeleteCYBI earnings a week or two ago...maybe NLS will get hit?:
ReplyDeleteCybex Chairman and CEO John Aglialoro stated, "As indicated in our Q1 earnings release, sales were sluggish through much of Q2 which we believe reflects uncertainty in the general economy. While it is difficult in the current environment to predict the short-term impact of economic conditions, we remain optimistic about sales prospects over the longer-term."
Buy the pullback if it does happen. 3 day rule applies in this case, I would think.
DeleteVXX at 52 wk low. Opinions? Cheap insurance?
ReplyDeleteBC - Trying to break out, can she chine walk on water?
ReplyDeleteSMP - BANG!
ReplyDeleteI need to learn how to evaluate these companies a little better.
DeleteDCI/DAN/SMP - These are good candidates if the market pulls a dump fest, IMO
ReplyDeleteMUX potential BO.
ReplyDeletePM bugs will say any damn thing just to get a price spike.
DeleteThe fact of the matter is, silver still trades at twice 2007 pre-crash prices, where's the upside potential in that? In hindsight, I just see a huge momo overshoot when looking at the chart.
DeletePrice trend action tells us all we need to hear, noise and false moves come from cleverly worded sound bites that quite frankly get old after having heard them 50 million times.
http://www.objectivetrader.com/2012/08/market-watch.html#trackback
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure why everyone thinks QE3 is coming unless maybe banks are still in trouble concerning their real estate holdings? I don't see how they could've survived this long but perhaps my understanding is warped all out of proportion (wouldn't be the first time!).
Deletewho knows but this is the scenario we were talking about over the past week...a rally to new highs and then a drop in sept/oct as we head into the election...then a big rally after the election is over. i don't think the drop goes all that far, though. maybe to 1,330ish? i'll be lightening up the load soon and looking to buy a drop rather than short a top.
DeleteMy perception today is an S&P failing to overcome 1400 psychological resistance.
Delete"buy a drop rather than short a top."
DeleteThis makes a lot of sense from the standpoint we now have the panoramic benefit of earnings results. My perception is machinery production and orders held up well and actually surprised to the upside.
Proof the planet hasn't stopped revolving despite the masses out there who can't pay their debts. High prices are the cure for high prices, once they top they sell off, rinse and repeat?
reed = wow. i sold at $3.7 after a 20% rip. yeesh.
ReplyDeleteSometimes it's hard, getting up in the morning. ;)
DeleteIf you're looking to trade NOK I would use a close below $2.26 as a stop out point.
ReplyDeleteIf NOK doesn't close green, I'll be really surprised. The volume spike at $2.72 kinda made me take a second guess.
DeleteI see possible unfinished business around $2.36 (untested bar) and possibly the $2.26 area (another untested bar).
Could be the SMA50 retest is good enough, A close today better than $2.47 would be constructive.
Still has that gap up from $2.41 this morning too, just a bit more of unfinished business.
DeleteCP - With these longer term potential turnarounds I'd rather look at daily closes. With a close above $2.41 it would put in a higher high. With a close below $2.27 it would put in a lower low. Still 40 minutes to go though so I'm not putting it in the bank yet.
DeleteI hear ya, I'm just looking for potential re-entry points!!! I've grown used to watching as stocks I've sold march much higher... ;)
DeleteHEK 'rallying' into earnings AMC.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Man, it's been nothing but rough times for this one...
ReplyDeleteMVIS looks like a bottom might be in. The W pattern has been a very powerful pattern over the past 3 years. Most recent ones I can think of are MITK, NOK, and Nat Gas...the (approximate) double bottom or right around the double bottom happened within days to a few weeks.
ReplyDeleteNot the greatest comments out of NLS:
ReplyDelete"Short term, we do anticipate softness in the Retail business as our retail partners continue to rationalize their fitness product offerings across their entire supply base. As a result of this softness and the incremental investment to launch new products, we believe that the improved operating results we experienced in the first half of the year are not indicative of likely results for the remainder of the year."
However, sounds like they are exepcting more of the same...modest growth and continued profitability. The quarter was pretty solid.
Yeah, doesn't sound very compelling.
Delete4:06 PM Nautilus Group (NLS): Q2 EPS of $0.02 misses by $0.05. Revenue of $39.6M (14+% Y/Y) beats by $3M. (PR)
ReplyDeleteJeez...WNC killed it on earnings last week. That is a cheap stock relative to earnings.
ReplyDeleteCAST - China must be a real zoo:
ReplyDelete"16-Jul-12 04:27PM ChinaCast says former VP Shi Shicheng has been detained by police at theflyonthewall.com -8.16%"
"In addition, on April 16, 2012, approximately 10 to 15 individuals not employed by the Company forcibly entered the Company's Shanghai office and stole some of the computers believed to be utilized by its finance department. Further, on April 17, 2012, individuals claiming to be associates of Mr. Chan unsuccessfully tried to occupy the Company's Shanghai office premises but were removed by the local police."
HEK - Doesn't seem extremely popular in AH
ReplyDeleteDMND - Available in AH at $16.59, yet no takers?
ReplyDelete"VXX at 52 wk low. Opinions? Cheap insurance?"
ReplyDeleteIt is not that cheap yet. When the front month futures drop to 15.XX (they went that low during many periods of complacency) and the difference between front-month and next-month futures drops below 5%, then it will be cheap (since we'll expect at most a 5% decay in VXX over the next month due to contango and pretty much no decay due to VIX itself going down). Right now this difference is more than 10% and VIX is still above 15...
Having said that, I did sell at $8.25 the remaining 5 January 2013 VXX puts, which I purchased at $5 in May, when VXX spiked to 20. The reason for my sell was the observation that S&P had developed a wave-like pattern over the past couple of months, and we are at the top of a wave right now. I'll wait for the next bout of panic and VIX above 25 so as to start purchasing long-dated VXX puts again.
SWSH - This company has been in business for decades, you'd think by now they'd have learned how to turn a profit!
ReplyDeleteNSPH dump at end of the day. Decent vol right at the close. I wonder if they're trying to scare people out of that sucker. I really like it...and the chart looks solid. May have to get back in.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, how about ~$2.36, think it's doable? ~$2.10 looks like another potential downside target as well.
DeleteFB - Magically, this one wasn't compelled to put in another new low today...
ReplyDeleteTSN - Tyson - The pink slime business must suck, I guess.
ReplyDelete