http://finance.yahoo.com/news/most-hated-stock-rally-history-193228964.html
Any of you have a take on the above? Being bullish doesn't feel as contrarian to me as Pisani submits.
With the exception of the the few Doug Kass blurbs, everything I'm reading is bullish. I got caught up on my Markman reading and he's bullish. He thought we would do more consolidating this week and then rally. He had said a week ago that Draghi kicked off the rally with his comments. I think he's right.
The Fast Money guys are bullish.
Looks like I'll loose my FSLR shares. I'm long stock and short the Aug 17 strike calls. I thought about buying the calls back when they were $.24 or so but I didnt.
My value investing coworker said he's reading that Buffet is holding a much larger cash position than usual. He's thinking Buffet is waiting for a large drop to put some cash to work. He thinks that drop may come from congress not resolving anything by the end of the year.
I wouldn't say things are overly bullish. As an example, 2 of the top 5 stories today at Marketwatch are:
Watch out for a correction - or worse Don't get suckered by the Draghi put
I think things are somewhere in the middle. People are underinvested and not doing that well as Pisani says, but seem afraid to be bullish, because they're are real macro risks. The 10-day advance / decline line is getting oversold so we should be do for at least a short term pullback, but on the other hand, Kass writes that AAII survey is approaching a buy signal (negative sentiment).
Laszlo Birinyi is calling for S&P to get to 1500 by year end. But, at the same time, he remains "cautious." The caveat? The risks hanging over the market are too tough to accurately handicap or quantify in a spreadsheet. "There are too many variables which are beyond our capabilities to absorb and forecast," Birinyi says. One of the most difficult things to gauge is how the eurozone's sovereign debt and banking crisis will play out.
And the rest of the article goes on with the things that can go wrong.
I think what you really want to do at this time is stick to your strategy and not make any big bets one way or another.
Because my approach is value-based, I buy and sell based on stocks getting cheap and expensive.
This approach has worked very well for me, other than the 2008 / 2009 crash, and even that loss was recovered by early, 2010. And, in my opinion, there's always someone telling you how horrible things will be. If you listen and invest on that, you will almost always be wrong and miss out on the good opportunities and the upside you give up will more than compensate for the downside when it does actually occur.
I've been cutting back a bit on some stocks lately and adding a bit to others and have probably added about 1 or 2% to my cash.
I think you really just want to stick to your approach (eg. buying good charts) and not worry too much about the rest of the noise.
FXI closed @ 35.27 for a +5.2% gain. EZU closed @ 28.20 for a +3.9% gain. BAC closed @ 7.62 for a +6% gain. Will close ICHKX at end of day, which as of last night was up +4.34%> unfortunately, I’ll be assessed a -2% short-term penalty to close the position (within the usual 30-day lock)! Hopefully, I’ll come out ahead at least +2%. All positions were opened either July 27 or July 31. Shanghai may spike on Thursday with the release of economic data, but I’m happy with the short term gain. In late July there were few boarders and plenty of empty seats, and it didn’t take long pick up a crowd. Things may change in another week or two.
what bullshit...short term penalty. i would write to get that removed and keep complaining. i did that with my old companys 401k fees and within 6 months it was removed.
We are right at the top of the channel since June 4th, so pretty likely we at least get some sort of a pullback here.
I guess arguing against it is the Bespoke election year chart (http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/7/29/can-it-really-be-that-easy.html) which shows an acceleration to the upside starting June 24th, so it should break to the upside in the next couple of days to stay with that pattern. Perhaps we get some ECB news which really does show they are doing something?
But, I'd definitely say the odds of a pullback are much better.
Initial Question/Comment: Re accounts -xxxx and -yyyy: I've been doing the best I can to navigate difficult market terrain. However, on top of being restricted to using mutual funds (which of course only trade end-of-day), a ST trading fee of 2% on ICHKX? That's kind of like a 2% handicap in addition to competing with my hands tied! I'm petitioning to have the ST fee either reduced or waived. I notice that ICHKX qualifies for a Redemption Fee Time Reduction. Please advise. Thanks!
Me: Hi X. We 'spoke' yesterday.
X: Good afternoon 2nd. Thank you for contacting Fidelity Investments.
X: Yes, we did chat yesterday.
X: I am looking up the fund you referenced.
Me: You know, I've been doing quite well with ST trading. Decent returns with minimal exposure.
X: The short term trading fee on this fund is actually a fee administered by the fund. The reduction period is outlined in the prospectus. I am reading through it now to see what information I can find.
Me: It just seems individual investors face needless obstacles.
X: The issue you are facing is that mutual funds are designed to be held longer term and to prevent frequently trading in and out of the fund, they place these short term trading fees on the fund. By doing this, the fund managers can plan to manage and trade in the fund better.
Me: I understand. It's not a level playing field, however. Large investors are not subject to the same restrictions.
X: I understand the frustration you may experience with this investment type and your trading strategy. Specifically in regard to your question, we are not able to remove this short term trading fee or the transaction fee.
Me: Max S-T Redemption Fee: 2.00% Redemption Fee Time Reduction: Yes
Me: Does the above indicate a basis for fee reduction based on holding period?
X: I am reading through the fund prospectus and the fund has certain circumstances where the fee can be reduced, but I do not see that it would apply to your situation. If you want to bring up the prospectus, you can read about it on page 66.
Me: OK, I've read through it. There must a reason why the Fidelity listing for ICHKX prints a 'Yes' for Redemption Fee Time Reduction?
X: I am seeing if I can find another time frame for that fee reduction. Typically that refers to if you hold the shares for 15 days, you pay a 1% fee and 30 days is no fee, but I am not finding it in the prospectus. Let me call our Investments group to see if they have any information.
Me: That would be great, thanks!
X: I spoke with them and they said the time reduction was not listed. What I can do is call our Funds Desk tomorrow when they are here to see what information they can provide. This is a group that is only here during market hours, so I will need to send you a follow-up email. Will that work?
Me: That works for me. I appreciate your going the extra mile.
2nd - Money speaks man. If you have been with a company for a while with money all along or if you have large enough balances, a little persuasion goes a long way in removing unnecessary fees. Just my own experience. Although I'm the type that isn't afraid to ask about fees when it comes to financial institutions because I know the little guy gets screwed and that's their bread and butter...taking advantage of us. The larger guys squeeze them to the decimal point on everything so why shouldn't we get our day in the sun every once in a while? We need our fair shake in this unfair biz.
Ha, how about $12.50 corn? Maybe this and the end of generous government subsidy will finally put an end to ethanol and provide methanol it's deserved place in the market.
Although, in defense of ethanol I've read the process enhances that value of cattle feed but you know how BS flows like water.
I just realized I did not post closing NSPH @ 2.61 for a minor (but irritating) loss (opened around 2.89). Each time I buy that POS it seems to sell off immediately without looking back.
The 401 rules tick me off. We've had a little spat with our HR director about our 401k and now he won't come visit us anymore. I wish they would just give us the ability to roll all or part of it over to a self directed IRA. Etrade lets you sell cash secured puts and covered calls in an IRA.
Sold the last of my Jessee inspired FSLR calls today. That will probably be my best trade for the year, as usual, I never put enough money into it.
Ethanol - everything I've read says it takes more energy to produce it.
Last year we had the drought in Texas and my driveway cracked. The foundation companies have been busy for months. My yard guy just about went broke because there wasn't much grass to cut. This year we are getting plenty of rain and cutting the grass once a week almost isn't enough.
I meant to look at LEN today but I didn't get a chance. Seems like we would get a 1-3 day pullback in the market, then if we resume the uptrend I'd say go all in long with tight stops.
LEN - depends on what happens tomorrow, but I may buy around this level at 30.71 with a stop around 29.17, that would only be 325 shares.
I would prefer to see the market pull back some though over the next couple of days but that may be what a lot of peeps are waiting for.
TLM - I think Landry would say there's a lot of daylight between price and the 10 day average. Here's another one that would be good to see pull back one or two days and then buy on the next up day.
WFR too? CREE - I really like LED lighting technology, so many applications. It's just hard to imagine CREE can compete effectively using US manufacturing. Most of the cost in manufacturing semi's is in plant and equipment however, not labor.
Government contracts maybe creating demand for CREE?
I'm really feeling clueless when it comes to understanding what moves the market. I have to ask, if we're heading higher then why were so many stocks sold off to such extremes? Where's the logic in that?
This market is totally and completely FOS, down isn't the direction. The market f'd up by selling off and now doesn't want to admit the mistake.
Of course the sheeple are left with no seat b/c they no longer trust the market. It's only once they regain trust, the market drops. Sure appears rigged, those who are keen to this are likely long now and have been. Slowly taking gains as the ice begins to melt and thin under their feet.
"The drop in the trade deficit, to $42.9 billion from $48 billion in May, means economic output was probably stronger in the second quarter than initially reported. The government's early estimate of gross domestic product for the April-to-June period was 1.5% annualized, but the better trade data suggests that the figure will be revised to a rate closer to 2%.
The June trade numbers surprised analysts; most were expecting little change in the deficit. But U.S. imports fell by $3.5 billion from May, to $227.9 billion. The drop was widespread and reflected the weaker growth and demand in the U.S. Americans bought less crude oil as well as foreign-made capital goods and consumer products."
Here is what the article says about exports: "U.S. exports, by contrast, grew by $1.7 billion from the prior month, to $185 billion. That's a slower pace of increase compared with earlier this year..."
"But we doubt this can last," [an economist] added in a note to clients Thursday. "Survey measures of export orders have already fallen sharply, and it probably won't be long before the actual export growth slows."
So both expected future exports and imports are reflecting a recessionary environment...
"AUMN - Man, this thing's got to start moving up soon if PM's hold their ground here."
I think the traders are waiting for their quarterly report, to see what they say about their cash position (i.e., whether or not they'll run out of money in 3Q before becoming cashflow positive in 4Q).
I like what I read there. They significantly reduced their expenses, but at the same time are planning to start a new drilling program at their El Quevar property: "The Company is planning a 2,000-meter, six-hole drilling program at the Quevar Norte prospect at El Quevar in northwestern Argentina, with the goal of outlining a new mineralized system that runs parallel to the main Yaxtché target. Drilling is expected to begin in September." They wouldn't be doing that if they were sure to run out of money in 2H2012. So I conclude, they WON'T run out of money, and will be able to proceed with production expansion as planned.
Jeff Clevenger, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, "Most of the necessary infrastructure projects at Velardeña have been completed and mine development has resumed as originally planned, now that we have all of the mining equipment we need to access areas of the mine that have had no previous development. We anticipate increasing grades of gold and silver as the year progresses and increasing throughput and recoveries in the plant as a result of projects completed to date at both the oxide and sulfide plants."
AUMN keeps rallying, so before it is too late, I increased my buy limit to $2.10 and bought these 10 extra calls. GDXJ just broke definitively above the 50-day SMA, also rising above early July highs. The rally in GDXJ will also pull up AUMN....
CORN - Tomorrow is AG dept report, if I understand correctly. I don't expect it's gonna be pretty, maybe good for Brazilian agriculture, demand for CNH tractors in Brazil, and some upside for Brazilian Real?
I agree with most of the above. It does 'feel' wired though, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteWith the exception of the the few Doug Kass blurbs, everything I'm reading is bullish. I got caught up on my Markman reading and he's bullish. He thought we would do more consolidating this week and then rally. He had said a week ago that Draghi kicked off the rally with his comments. I think he's right.
ReplyDeleteThe Fast Money guys are bullish.
Looks like I'll loose my FSLR shares. I'm long stock and short the Aug 17 strike calls. I thought about buying the calls back when they were $.24 or so but I didnt.
My value investing coworker said he's reading that Buffet is holding a much larger cash position than usual. He's thinking Buffet is waiting for a large drop to put some cash to work. He thinks that drop may come from congress not resolving anything by the end of the year.
ReplyDelete"He thinks that drop may come from congress not resolving anything by the end of the year."
ReplyDeleteI think that's a valid concern for inclusion in the trading plan.
oh frick! cannot make heads or tails out of the ATLS earnings report, got a feeling this one is going to hurt.
ReplyDeleteSo far so good!
Deleteperhaps every other trader is as confused by their report as I am...the thing is just about flat lining...lol, all that worry for nothing - yet!
DeleteIs this just a chart play?
Deleteno, one of my fundi longs
DeleteDBC - I'd have been in this one if it weren't for the gap up from $25....
ReplyDeleteSWC - Maybe I can relax, concerning this one.
ReplyDeleteJust stated using Elder in conjunction with MP, I like the tri-color candles:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:elder_impulse_system
MDW - I don't know what's going on with this one, not the slightest clue, but the price is low in terms of recent history...
ReplyDeleteTaxation - I say do away with Federal income taxes completely, just monetize government funding. Not both, it's too opaque.
ReplyDeleteDitto for sates and municipalities, if they can find a way to make it work.
MUX- A thing of beauty if one could stay with it.
ReplyDeleteProgress should bring investors, there can be setbacks.
DeleteMDW- Yeah, it took some really big hits a few days ago on nothing I could find. I asked T3D but he wasn't around.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Almost seems like sellers took gains before leaving for the beach...
ReplyDeleteNasty reversal in ANR.
ReplyDeleteProbably should be bought if there's no catastrophic news associated.
DeleteHmm, I'm not interested....
DeleteSilver/gold - Have to admit, silver seems to be hanging onto $28 pretty well....
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't say things are overly bullish. As an example, 2 of the top 5 stories today at Marketwatch are:
ReplyDeleteWatch out for a correction - or worse
Don't get suckered by the Draghi put
I think things are somewhere in the middle. People are underinvested and not doing that well as Pisani says, but seem afraid to be bullish, because they're are real macro risks. The 10-day advance / decline line is getting oversold so we should be do for at least a short term pullback, but on the other hand, Kass writes that AAII survey is approaching a buy signal (negative sentiment).
Laszlo Birinyi is calling for S&P to get to 1500 by year end. But, at the same time, he remains "cautious." The caveat? The risks hanging over the market are too tough to accurately handicap or quantify in a spreadsheet.
"There are too many variables which are beyond our capabilities to absorb and forecast," Birinyi says. One of the most difficult things to gauge is how the eurozone's sovereign debt and banking crisis will play out.
And the rest of the article goes on with the things that can go wrong.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/story/2012-08-07/stocks-second-half-outlook/56859754/1
I think what you really want to do at this time is stick to your strategy and not make any big bets one way or another.
ReplyDeleteBecause my approach is value-based, I buy and sell based on stocks getting cheap and expensive.
This approach has worked very well for me, other than the 2008 / 2009 crash, and even that loss was recovered by early, 2010. And, in my opinion, there's always someone telling you how horrible things will be. If you listen and invest on that, you will almost always be wrong and miss out on the good opportunities and the upside you give up will more than compensate for the downside when it does actually occur.
I've been cutting back a bit on some stocks lately and adding a bit to others and have probably added about 1 or 2% to my cash.
I think you really just want to stick to your approach (eg. buying good charts) and not worry too much about the rest of the noise.
Exactly, I'll bite if the market comes to me otherwise what I already have is fine.
DeleteThe great thing about the stock market is that if you miss one opportunity, the next one is not far behind.
DeleteDF - Oh baby, LOL!
ReplyDeletehey fellas vegas is hot! won $517 on a poker slot game...never play slots but was at bar waiting for a drink and started playing it.
ReplyDeletemy svnt is finally in the money. nok is hanging in there. still think dmnd has 100% upside.
hope u guys are doing well.
Nice bro!!!! Have a drink for me.
DeleteFXI closed @ 35.27 for a +5.2% gain. EZU closed @ 28.20 for a +3.9% gain. BAC closed @ 7.62 for a +6% gain. Will close ICHKX at end of day, which as of last night was up +4.34%> unfortunately, I’ll be assessed a -2% short-term penalty to close the position (within the usual 30-day lock)! Hopefully, I’ll come out ahead at least +2%. All positions were opened either July 27 or July 31. Shanghai may spike on Thursday with the release of economic data, but I’m happy with the short term gain. In late July there were few boarders and plenty of empty seats, and it didn’t take long pick up a crowd. Things may change in another week or two.
ReplyDeleteHulbert confirms the uneasiness I mentioned in my lead post:
Deletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/watch-out-for-a-correction-or-worse-2012-08-08
what bullshit...short term penalty. i would write to get that removed and keep complaining. i did that with my old companys 401k fees and within 6 months it was removed.
DeleteWe are right at the top of the channel since June 4th, so pretty likely we at least get some sort of a pullback here.
DeleteI guess arguing against it is the Bespoke election year chart (http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/7/29/can-it-really-be-that-easy.html) which shows an acceleration to the upside starting June 24th, so it should break to the upside in the next couple of days to stay with that pattern. Perhaps we get some ECB news which really does show they are doing something?
But, I'd definitely say the odds of a pullback are much better.
Glad to see everyone ended the day without having lost their asses! ;)
ReplyDeleteTOF, those free drinks make for great FCF!
Until tomorrow....
tof- I hear you, man. I'm registering a complaint right now.
ReplyDeleteInitial Question/Comment: Re accounts -xxxx and -yyyy: I've been doing the best I can to navigate difficult market terrain. However, on top of being restricted to using mutual funds (which of course only trade end-of-day), a ST trading fee of 2% on ICHKX? That's kind of like a 2% handicap in addition to competing with my hands tied! I'm petitioning to have the ST fee either reduced or waived. I notice that ICHKX qualifies for a Redemption Fee Time Reduction. Please advise. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteMe: Hi X. We 'spoke' yesterday.
X: Good afternoon 2nd. Thank you for contacting Fidelity Investments.
X: Yes, we did chat yesterday.
X: I am looking up the fund you referenced.
Me: You know, I've been doing quite well with ST trading. Decent returns with minimal exposure.
X: The short term trading fee on this fund is actually a fee administered by the fund. The reduction period is outlined in the prospectus. I am reading through it now to see what information I can find.
Me: It just seems individual investors face needless obstacles.
X: The issue you are facing is that mutual funds are designed to be held longer term and to prevent frequently trading in and out of the fund, they place these short term trading fees on the fund. By doing this, the fund managers can plan to manage and trade in the fund better.
Me: I understand. It's not a level playing field, however. Large investors are not subject to the same restrictions.
X: I understand the frustration you may experience with this investment type and your trading strategy. Specifically in regard to your question, we are not able to remove this short term trading fee or the transaction fee.
Me: Max S-T Redemption Fee: 2.00%
Redemption Fee Time Reduction: Yes
Me: Does the above indicate a basis for fee reduction based on holding period?
X: I am reading through the fund prospectus and the fund has certain circumstances where the fee can be reduced, but I do not see that it would apply to your situation. If you want to bring up the prospectus, you can read about it on page 66.
Me: OK, I've read through it. There must a reason why the Fidelity listing for ICHKX prints a 'Yes' for Redemption Fee Time Reduction?
X: I am seeing if I can find another time frame for that fee reduction. Typically that refers to if you hold the shares for 15 days, you pay a 1% fee and 30 days is no fee, but I am not finding it in the prospectus. Let me call our Investments group to see if they have any information.
Me: That would be great, thanks!
X: I spoke with them and they said the time reduction was not listed. What I can do is call our Funds Desk tomorrow when they are here to see what information they can provide. This is a group that is only here during market hours, so I will need to send you a follow-up email. Will that work?
Me: That works for me. I appreciate your going the extra mile.
2nd - Money speaks man. If you have been with a company for a while with money all along or if you have large enough balances, a little persuasion goes a long way in removing unnecessary fees. Just my own experience. Although I'm the type that isn't afraid to ask about fees when it comes to financial institutions because I know the little guy gets screwed and that's their bread and butter...taking advantage of us. The larger guys squeeze them to the decimal point on everything so why shouldn't we get our day in the sun every once in a while? We need our fair shake in this unfair biz.
DeleteIs this verbatim?
DeleteIt was an 'Instant Messaging' conversation, so apart from the fact that 'names and accounts have been changed to preserve confidentiality,' yes.
DeleteThe dialog certainly seems if not precisely, near verbatim. I bet he'd be much worse off if they were actually managing his investments for him.
DeleteNow that I'm back to 100% cash, I sense the distinct possibility of a furious rally in Shanghai tonight should 'data points' surprise.
ReplyDeleteAustralia didn't ease yesterday, thus reports of China falling off a cliff may prove "optimistic".
Delete"$9 corn could big problem for economy -"
ReplyDeleteHa, how about $12.50 corn? Maybe this and the end of generous government subsidy will finally put an end to ethanol and provide methanol it's deserved place in the market.
Although, in defense of ethanol I've read the process enhances that value of cattle feed but you know how BS flows like water.
I just realized I did not post closing NSPH @ 2.61 for a minor (but irritating) loss (opened around 2.89). Each time I buy that POS it seems to sell off immediately without looking back.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - I still have my open bid on NSPH on the low end of $2's($2.17, I think), break glass in case of emergency!
DeleteZIP...I guess that one never worked out.
ReplyDeleteDDMG- Anyone know this pig?
ReplyDeleteZAZA- This one might be interesting on a gap fill.
ReplyDeletePCLN stopped at the 365 DMA to the penny...well, ok, probabaly to the $20's, but it looks cool.
ReplyDeleteShould have stuck with MOG on TLM with the quick 10 break. WTF is wrong with me.
ReplyDeleteThe 401 rules tick me off. We've had a little spat with our HR director about our 401k and now he won't come visit us anymore. I wish they would just give us the ability to roll all or part of it over to a self directed IRA. Etrade lets you sell cash secured puts and covered calls in an IRA.
ReplyDeleteSold the last of my Jessee inspired FSLR calls today. That will probably be my best trade for the year, as usual, I never put enough money into it.
Ethanol - everything I've read says it takes more energy to produce it.
ReplyDeleteLast year we had the drought in Texas and my driveway cracked. The foundation companies have been busy for months. My yard guy just about went broke because there wasn't much grass to cut. This year we are getting plenty of rain and cutting the grass once a week almost isn't enough.
I meant to look at LEN today but I didn't get a chance. Seems like we would get a 1-3 day pullback in the market, then if we resume the uptrend I'd say go all in long with tight stops.
ReplyDeleteLEN - depends on what happens tomorrow, but I may buy around this level at 30.71 with a stop around 29.17, that would only be 325 shares.
I would prefer to see the market pull back some though over the next couple of days but that may be what a lot of peeps are waiting for.
TLM - I think Landry would say there's a lot of daylight between price and the 10 day average. Here's another one that would be good to see pull back one or two days and then buy on the next up day.
ReplyDeleteLooks like tomorrow is an up day for now anyway.
Cut the St Augustine as high as you can, and yes, one a week while it's growing.
ReplyDeleteThat way, you'll never have to mow it and it'll be plenty healthy to make it through with flying colors on those dryer than normal years.
FSLR - Sheesh, what a leap of faith.
Never have to water it. Mowing is a given unless it's cut too close and it dies.
DeleteAnkle deep, it's carpet grass!
NOK - Sure looks strong.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Only 1k shares traded
ReplyDeleteI keep watching that one. I think it's worth a try at 2.50 again.
DeleteDMND - I must've missed the big breakthrough news on this one? According to the news I've read, delisting seemed imminent.
ReplyDeleteDang, look at the angle of attack on CREE. Hard to believe.
ReplyDeleteWFR too? CREE - I really like LED lighting technology, so many applications. It's just hard to imagine CREE can compete effectively using US manufacturing. Most of the cost in manufacturing semi's is in plant and equipment however, not labor.
DeleteGovernment contracts maybe creating demand for CREE?
AUMN - Man, this thing's got to start moving up soon if PM's hold their ground here. Dollar up along with PM's, is this a sea change?
ReplyDeleteT's selling off here, could be, just maybe...
I'm really feeling clueless when it comes to understanding what moves the market. I have to ask, if we're heading higher then why were so many stocks sold off to such extremes? Where's the logic in that?
ReplyDeleteNo shit!
DeleteSee you guys later.
This market is totally and completely FOS, down isn't the direction. The market f'd up by selling off and now doesn't want to admit the mistake.
ReplyDeleteOf course the sheeple are left with no seat b/c they no longer trust the market. It's only once they regain trust, the market drops. Sure appears rigged, those who are keen to this are likely long now and have been. Slowly taking gains as the ice begins to melt and thin under their feet.
DMND...deez (emerald) nuts!
ReplyDeleteheads up nls is right at logical bounce spot. bounce to 2.9 to 3 is logical. thats a 25% move
ReplyDeleteNLS - Thanks for pointing it out, back to my target zone!!!
Delete"Economic bright spots: Trade deficit narrows; jobless claims fall"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-trade-joblessclaims-20120809,0,4034624.story
It's funny how they come up with headlines. :)
Here are some quotes:
"The drop in the trade deficit, to $42.9 billion from $48 billion in May, means economic output was probably stronger in the second quarter than initially reported. The government's early estimate of gross domestic product for the April-to-June period was 1.5% annualized, but the better trade data suggests that the figure will be revised to a rate closer to 2%.
The June trade numbers surprised analysts; most were expecting little change in the deficit. But U.S. imports fell by $3.5 billion from May, to $227.9 billion. The drop was widespread and reflected the weaker growth and demand in the U.S. Americans bought less crude oil as well as foreign-made capital goods and consumer products."
Here is what the article says about exports: "U.S. exports, by contrast, grew by $1.7 billion from the prior month, to $185 billion. That's a slower pace of increase compared with earlier this year..."
"But we doubt this can last," [an economist] added in a note to clients Thursday. "Survey measures of export orders have already fallen sharply, and it probably won't be long before the actual export growth slows."
So both expected future exports and imports are reflecting a recessionary environment...
"AUMN - Man, this thing's got to start moving up soon if PM's hold their ground here."
ReplyDeleteI think the traders are waiting for their quarterly report, to see what they say about their cash position (i.e., whether or not they'll run out of money in 3Q before becoming cashflow positive in 4Q).
Actually, they reported this morning! I'll read it now...
DeleteI like what I read there. They significantly reduced their expenses, but at the same time are planning to start a new drilling program at their El Quevar property: "The Company is planning a 2,000-meter, six-hole drilling program at the Quevar Norte prospect at El Quevar in northwestern Argentina, with the goal of outlining a new mineralized system that runs parallel to the main Yaxtché target. Drilling is expected to begin in September." They wouldn't be doing that if they were sure to run out of money in 2H2012. So I conclude, they WON'T run out of money, and will be able to proceed with production expansion as planned.
DeleteJeff Clevenger, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, "Most of the necessary infrastructure projects at Velardeña have been completed and mine development has resumed as originally planned, now that we have all of the mining equipment we need to access areas of the mine that have had no previous development. We anticipate increasing grades of gold and silver as the year progresses and increasing throughput and recoveries in the plant as a result of projects completed to date at both the oxide and sulfide plants."
AUMN will be a HUGE winner one year from now...
Just placed a buy limit order for 10 more AUMN January $2.50 calls at $2.00.
DeleteAUMN keeps rallying, so before it is too late, I increased my buy limit to $2.10 and bought these 10 extra calls. GDXJ just broke definitively above the 50-day SMA, also rising above early July highs. The rally in GDXJ will also pull up AUMN....
DeleteThanks for update, she's on a roll!
Delete"I increased my buy limit to $2.10 and bought these 10 extra calls."
DeleteSeems like you're buying into strength...... AHEM!?!?!?
CORN - Tomorrow is AG dept report, if I understand correctly. I don't expect it's gonna be pretty, maybe good for Brazilian agriculture, demand for CNH tractors in Brazil, and some upside for Brazilian Real?
ReplyDeleteWhat's up with BTU today? They have already reached their pre-earnings level...
ReplyDeleteThe selling was all just pure BS, no doubt. ;)
DeleteMaybe related to a WLT inside buy??
Deletemy old boss had 1.5 Million in FIO...earnings after hours. needless to say he is stoked.
ReplyDeleteI was thinking about that. He better be selling some.
Deletehe said "fio is going to be the motherload"...hope he;s right.
DeleteWith a PE like that, there's got to be something going on. Then there's the short float, big bets on both sides, right now longs win hands down.
DeleteWhere's the beef, what does FIO have no one else does or can't do?
DeleteMM- We should have had a play there.
ReplyDeleteSLW - This one reported in AH, but didn't rise anywhere near 26%
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