Thursday, August 9, 2012
8/9/12 Just Like A Trader
Nobody feels any pain
Tonight as I drink away the strain
Everybody knows
The trader's got cojones
But lately I see the imperial grimace
Has fallen from his face
Yes, he fades just like a player, yes he does
And he makes trades just like a player, yes he does
Then he aches just like a player
But he breaks just like a little girl
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No trades today, and no regrets.
ReplyDeleteDid something light a fire under NSPH?
DeleteNSPH- Interesting action near the close CP, as you observed. I hold my largest share @ $2.68 from 8/7. I also bought for my 1st grandchild at a penny less. Am I proud? Only time will tell.
DeleteIt really is all mental.
ReplyDeleteThey're trashing YHOO after hours.
ReplyDeleteYHOO - Good, I've been waiting patiently for this one to go single digits. Ditto for BAC $3's.
ReplyDeleteNot that either ever will, but I can always hope.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/an-exact-opportunity-2012-08-09?link=MW_TD_latest
ReplyDeleteFido responded today, basically along the lines of 'tough shit, bro.' The prospectus is clear re the 2% ST trading fee, it's not a Fido fund, and there isn't anything they can do.
ReplyDeletehttp://seabreezepartners.net/letters&id=1247&catid=15
ReplyDeleteFull text of the above link
DeleteThe Bob Farrell Sentiment Indicator - 08/08/12
•Simple in its approach and precise in its predictive ability.
Among technical analysts over the last five decades, Bob Farrell stood tall.
"Uncle" Bob was the legendary head of technical analysis at Merrill Lynch until late 1992. Among his numerous contributions to the investment business, my favorite was his "10 Market Rules to Remember."
Bob created a market indicator that was simple in its approach but relatively precise in its predictive market ability.
The Farrell sentiment study and market indicator takes the bullish percentage in the AAII survey and divides the figure by the bearish percentage plus half the neutrals. He then takes a 10-week moving average.
A bullish (and oversold) buy signal occurs when the 10-week average falls under 0.50 and rises from there. (There is often a two- to three-week lag before the market turns up.)
A bearish (and overbought) sell signal occurs when the 10-week average moves above 1.50 and then begins to fall. (Here, too, there is often a two- to three-week lag before the market turns down.)
Here is a download to the data since late 2002, compiled by a pal/buddy/friend of mine, former (and also legendary) specialist Bill Silver.
As you can see from the recent data, the Farrell sentiment indicator is close to (but not yet at) a buy signal.
I plan to update Bob's indicator on a weekly basis. (The weekly data is available on Thursday afternoons on Bloomberg.)
YHOO should be watched closely. New CEO dumping dumping every possible thing on the table.
ReplyDeleteThis is going to be a very interesting story to follow. I think there is about a 33% chance that she's gone within 6 months. Regardless Valley gossips wags are already going nuts...lol
Delete6 months!? Wow, that would be crazy.
Deletethings can move real fast in hi tech.
DeleteI just read the quarterly report for MUX, and unlike for AUMN, I didn't like what I read there. Just as I had expected, they weren't able to get any money out of Argentina, and now they are planning some kind of a rights offering to buy common stock at a deep discount. This smells like a lot of share dilution. So I just placed a sell limit order at $2.50 for my remaining 13 contracts of January $1 calls I purchased in mid-May at $1.30. MUX had a nice run off the mid-May lows, and I don't really see a reason for that run. I would rather recycle this money into AUMN calls, where I see a great reason for an amazing rally...
ReplyDeleteI have just discovered that in another trading account I have 20 more of January $1 calls on MUX, also purchased at $1.30. I'll sell them tomorrow if MUX rallies some more.
DeleteYeah, I've been suspicious of the magnificent MUX rally.
DeleteIs today the day?
ReplyDeleteJCP- Wild PM trading. Scanned the news. Yikes, those are some scary numbers.
ReplyDeleteYeah, numbers weren't too good, I thought, which explains the 9% gain.... LOL! ;)
DeleteIt's all the CEO...and apparently they are going to set up hot dog carts in each store.
DeleteChina - Export numbers fell.
ReplyDeletelittle disappointed FB hasn't popped more on the UK online gambling news, still holding a full position.
ReplyDeletePAL - New low, I have a sub $1 downside target on this one.
ReplyDeleteCHK - Justice dept subpeona.
ReplyDeleteNSPH- The bid/ask is 2.82/.83 but it keeps trading at 2.84. Strange.
ReplyDelete9.7k shares at 2.85, seemed to slow things us, now it's moving again
DeleteI just moved my bid up from $2.18 to $2.63, I'll add if it drops to low $2's
DeleteYeah, down :)..still like it into the day though.
DeleteCorn - AG dept report doesn't seem too alarming, really.
ReplyDeleteSPY- Nice bar. Did i miss something?
ReplyDelete/ES rebounded nicely off of S2, after testing it a couple of times. Although there is zero vol today, expect we end up around 94
DeleteFTWR - Down $0.01 (-20%)
ReplyDeleteHII - Earnings were well received. This company manages the naval yard in the world's largest harbor.
ReplyDeleteWe're going down, bro. Down.
ReplyDeleteLater players...
ReplyDeleteSome Big Boyz must have read my note about MUX and are selling it today, putting an end to its unexplainable rally. Luckily, the sell limit order I placed yesterday for 13 MUX calls (I placed it low, at the bid) was executed this morning at $2.50. I think I'll wait a bit before recycling this money into AUMN calls, since SLV seems to have stalled at $27.25 and cannot get above its July 30 peak. So most likely, SLV will pull back for a little while... And if it instead breaks above $27.50, then it will be a clear indication that the rally is HERE, and buying into the early stages of the rally (even if I would have to pay a higher price than now) is OK with me.
ReplyDeleteI just looked at the 1-month chart of MUX and I don't like it at all. With a current bid of $2.30/$2.65, I placed a sell limit order at $2.40 for my remaining 20 contracts of MUX January $1 calls.
DeleteSGG - Coming back to us.
ReplyDeleteUGA - Some kind of chart, huh?
ReplyDeleteSWC - Offed this one @ $9.36 @ a 3.4% gain, metals look to me like they're ready to roll over...
ReplyDeleteNSPH - I'd be dumping at least some of this one if it doesn't close better than $3.91
ReplyDeletewhat's up fellas...I haven't really been closely following things but my impression is the market is a coiled spring
ReplyDeleteI'm half way to Vegas.
Delete2nd_ave thinks it is a coiled spring about to unwind downwards...
DeleteMy 20 MUX January $1 calls were just sold at $2.40 (I purchased them at $1.30 in mid-May). All together, I raised $8K today by selling 33 such calls (for a total profit of $3700). I'll try to recycle this profit now into AUMN calls: placed a buy limit order at $2.10 for 15 AUMN January $2.50 calls. I'll invest the remaining $5K if we get a pullback in SLV and the miners in the next few weeks (or if SLV breaks $27.50 to the upside and a rally will be confirmed).
ReplyDeleteI see that GDXJ has been making steady higher highs and higher lows for the past few hours, so I decided to increase my buy limit for 15 AUMN January $2.50 calls to $2.15, and it was filled.
DeleteApparently, the stock traders got excited by my purchase of AUMN calls and AUMN moved from red to green in a few seconds after my order was filled. :)
DeleteThe lack of volume in that stock is amazing -- yesterday, when the bid/ask was $4.33/$4.35, I placed a buy limit order for 2000 shares at $4.35 in my friend's account. Only 800 shares were filled and the bid/ask immediately jumped to $4.35/$4.39. So the prices we see are those used by computers to skim human traders. When a real human interest appears in AUMN, it will zoom like there is no tomorrow, because THERE WILL NOT be any real asks...
Notice that after today's close, the slope of the 50-day SMA on the 6-month chart of AUMN finally changed from negative to positive. So all you conservative folks might want to think about buying AUMN now, at the very beginning of a HUGE rally. You might also want to leave some cash on the side, so as to add to your AUMN position in the next couple of weeks, when SLV will most likely suffer a pullback... But DO buy some now, so as not to be totally left out!
ReplyDeleteAnd tell me honestly, folks -- what do you think about the PNPFF chart since July 2010, when QE2 was about to happen? PNPFF went from a low of $1 that summer to $4.30 in 6 months on the back of the QE2, then dropped down to $0.8 in May 2012, and then stayed flat for 3 months. Which way do you think the flat section will resolve itself?
ReplyDeleteRemember -- PNPFF is an actively managed mutual fund of 50+ small resource companies in all sectors (PM exploration companies comprise exactly 50% of that fund). So there is no single company risk there -- it is a bet on the future direction of the whole resource sector.
DeleteThat was a pretty crazy 4 month period. Was there any negative NAV then?
DeleteMark, I think their NAV is the total value of all the stocks they are holding -- isn't it right? Right now, their price/NAV ratio is about 0.50, and I can't figure out how this ratio could be below 1, since they can liquidate their positions and pay out in cash twice the share price...
DeleteYes, you are correct about how to calculate the NAV. I see NAV's below one all the time. I've often wondered the same thing as you about selling everything. I guess it's partially related to the fact they shouldn't and traders know this.
DeleteDoesn't Sprott fund have a negative NAV?
DeleteI just checked, it's even. There have been times where it was over or under NAV though.
DeleteI am pretty sure that Sprott's NAV is the total value of silver he is holding. But how do you think PNPFF's NAV is computed?
Delete"what do you think about the PNPFF chart since July 2010"
DeleteHonestly, have you looked at platinum and palladium charts? What do you make of the correlation with gold and silver?
I don't know why, but for some reason the more I look at these charts, the more compelling the case for lower metals prices becomes. :(
PNPFF - And this chart looks an awful lot like an H&S pattern to me:
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PNPFF&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p14195833695
So, in conclusion and keeping in mind that the market always zigs when I think it's about to zag, perhaps it's safe to say that what I see won't become the reality?
So what happened today anyway, did the German Parliament vote unanimously for a Spanish bailout?
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Looks like the same guy who pushed this one up yesterday afternoon showed up for a repeat performance going into today's close.
ReplyDeleteCP, the H&S pattern derives from the psychology of traders, which get exhausted while trying to push the price above a certain level. However, over the long time horizon the composition of traders changes, and the underlying system changes as well, so I think the H&S pattern becomes useless.
ReplyDeleteAs for the correlation between platinum, palladium, gold and silver -- there is nothing to be surprised about. They all depend on $USD to a large extent, with a different degree of dependence on the overall economy mixed in. Platinum and palladium, and to a smaller extent silver, have a positive correlation with the economy, while gold has a negative correlation. That's why the gold price looks best. Given a weakening economy in our future, I think one should bet on gold/silver rather than platinum/palladium.
ReplyDeletePlatinum looks like it's about 1.4% away from a very bad hair day, to me.
DeleteMark- Am I interpreting your comments correctly? You left Sonoma County around 836 am, and by 1216 pm you were half way to Vegas?
ReplyDeleteI was just messing with TOF.
Delete$SPX - Wow, what a rough 2-1/2 months it's been, looking at the daily chart I'd bet plenty of nerves are completely shot.
ReplyDeleteBTU - Looks kinda like it's primed for a move to $18, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteWhere do you get all that pessimism from, CP? BTU has not even retreated back below the 50 day SMA yet!
DeleteATPG- Glad MOG kept us out of that one.
ReplyDeletewhat's up fellas...crazy week huh? lots of those beaten down POS highly shorted stocks have been flying sky high. the ones that i've watched over the past month that have gone up at least 40 to 50%:
ReplyDeleteINVN
NOK
FIO
FSLR
JRCC
The ones that still intrigue me are TZOO and WNC and NLS if it gets to $2.3 again. however, I like my own positions more than any of those.
Mark - Vegas is calling your name bro. I'll put $$ down on blackjack for you. I've devised a betting strategy that seems to be paying off. Have won between $20 and $50 each of the past 4 times I've been at the table. Funny how that seems to be a big win and yet we gamble so much more on the market.
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ReplyDelete