My October $5 calls did not get sold today at $3, so I decided to cancel that order. Instead, I placed a buy limit for 10 more April $5 calls at $1.50, in case AUMN has a pullback tomorrow.
Guys its probably nothing but I did want to point out what looks like a possible negative divergence for NSPH. If you're not looking at trading it then who cares. But if you are there is a negative RSI and MACD divergence. I also see what looks like a sell signal on the stochastics. Just pointing it out.
fantastic photo, I keep forgetting, is the one wearing the black t shirt the soccer champ?
I was telling everyone at work today about my favorite book. I was reading it to the 3.5 yr old and 15 stuffed animals last night. http://www.amazon.com/Hippos-Go-Berserk-Sandra-Boynton/dp/0689834349
I'm so happy that those DEC 135 Spy puts I sold yesterday at 3.78 are now 4.24 bid. I really called it wrong on the reading of the minutes. All I heard was "more qe is coming unless things get really good" and I don't see things getting really good or bad in the next 3 months.
I watch Minyanville's Buzz and Banter everyday since it's free with T D Ameritrade. Peeps that don't normally seem bullish or bearish really seemed bearish to me.
Dang, had a whole paragraph ready to post and my screen locked up then deleted it.
Bought 500 ANR at 6.76. I'll buy more once I see what natty does in mid Sep. I agree with Jessee's low price call on natty but it wouldn't surprise me to see us got lower in sep. Today was pretty strong thought with such a bearish storage number and the screen closing at flat.
We are thinking ISAAC will wind up reducing more demand than supply. You might see a lot of electrical lines down too.
There is bound to be some short covering in NOK. I don't know why they can't show us the daily short interest. You can see the short interest as of 7/31/12 on the NASDAQ site.
On Think Or Swim it says NOK is "Hard To Borrow".
Per Nasdaq 7/31/12 202,751,180 shares short 7/13/12 165,594,918 shares short
On 8/1/12, there is a big volume spike, looks like it was about 3 times the 10 day average or so and the candlestick shows something close to a gravestone doji which is bearish. NOK traded down one more day or normal volume then started to trade up. Today NOK traded up big on roughly 2.7 times the 10 day average volume so I'm thinking there is a lot of short covering going on. I'm concerned that the shorters may be waiting for a bit higher price before they give NOK a good smacking again.
Frigin crazy....Petaluma beats what was probably the best team in the USA bracket 11-1. USA finals Sat. morning. Knowing these kids and parents and what a small town we live in it's really damn near unbelievable.
PHM gave a Landry 10 20 30 buy signal yesterday with a buy at 13.35, and a stop around 12.61. We'll see what tomorrow brings but I may add some shares to my existing position and use the 12.61 stop number. At 13.35 and with a $500 stop loss amount, that would be 700 shares with a 1st sell target of 14.09.
I keep thinking about this fiscal cliff issue, then yesterday Bollard said he doesn't think further stimulus will be needed, which makes sense if the FED wants to put the onus onto Congress to get the fiscal cliff addressed?
That's interesting: we were supposed to have a large pullback in the PM sector today, but instead we got only a small morning weakness in some miners and yet ANOTHER positive day for gold and silver. The northbound train is MUCH lighter today, with many people having jumped off it yesterday. This is how people get left behind...
My buy limit order for 10 more April $5 AUMN calls was executed this morning at $1.50. So now I'll wait for a pop in AUMN above its June $5.50 resistance level (SLV and GDXJ have already broken out of that resistance, and so AUMN will follow soon) so as to ditch my October calls...
still holding ugaz unfortunately. i saw the potential for a bull trap yesterday after watching the futures overnight but didn't act on it. i think they will walk it lower next week into the storage report to get everyone off the train. then it will rally. i'm looking for a couple of closes around the $2.65 to $2.7 area for nat gas. the parallel to the trading in the S&P 500 in july 2009 is almost identical.
CP - I'm out of NOK now. Moved it to Nat Gas which looks like a mistake (so far). My initial target on NOK was $3.25 which would have been 100% higher from the lows. It basically hit that today and yesterday on heavy volume. I would wait for a move to $2.92 to $3 to get in.
Nat Gas could very well be right near a bottom right here...This dude has been pretty good on Nat Gas:
Old articles to see he's been good: http://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/7/2012/18/ http://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/6/2012/14/
One other thing: from top to bottom 5/18/12 to 6/13/12 it was 18 trading days. From top to bottom 7/31/12 to 8/24/12 it has been 18 trading days. Maybe just a coincidence.
From traders I read they're targeting $2.50...we all know how that works when most people are looking for the same thing. However, it could always happen. There is a down trend line from the 7/13 top to the 8/9 top and that basically got hit again. Right now Nat Gas looks to be trading quite technically and has nothing to do with inventory reports etc. For example, there was a very bullish report on 8/16; however the price of NG dropped. Yesterday the report was somewhat bearish yet the price rose. $2.70 to $2.75 has been an area of resistance / support and naturally the price closed today at $2.7. It also is part of the neckline in the inverted head and shoulders so its only natural that the price is right around there. If the IHS plays out then a move to $3.6 is the target. That's what I've been thinking all along in a swing trade. We shall see.
By the way CP, I believe NOK could very well get to $5 within 12 months. However, I think there will be a very big pullback most likely right around the 1st week of September after the Windows phones are released. I figured that Nat Gas could move to $3.60 and UGAZ would go to $44. That would be a return of 90%+ from here. I chose that over NOK at $2.75 because I saw no way for NOK to get to $5.2 (90% move) before Natty made that move. That was my thinking. As usual, though, if Nat Gas moves up to that I will sell early because I always sell about halfway through a move.
Nice family photo, Mark!
ReplyDeleteMy October $5 calls did not get sold today at $3, so I decided to cancel that order. Instead, I placed a buy limit for 10 more April $5 calls at $1.50, in case AUMN has a pullback tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteMITK down 7% in about 12 minutes.
ReplyDeleteThanks David! Yikes I look old though.
Jesse is thinking ANR per email.
ReplyDeleteI like ANR but it needs natty to rally here is my thinking.
DeleteAgreed.
DeleteAwesome picture man.
ReplyDeleteGuys its probably nothing but I did want to point out what looks like a possible negative divergence for NSPH. If you're not looking at trading it then who cares. But if you are there is a negative RSI and MACD divergence. I also see what looks like a sell signal on the stochastics. Just pointing it out.
David - I still think this silver / gold bump up is nothing more than a fake breakout. I would be selling/shorting them.
ReplyDeleteWell, with at least 10 such fake breakouts we saw over the past year, the probability is definitely in favor of this being the 11th one...
DeleteGreat Photo Mark, looks like you have three tigers by the tail.
ReplyDeletefantastic photo, I keep forgetting, is the one wearing the black t shirt the soccer champ?
ReplyDeleteI was telling everyone at work today about my favorite book. I was reading it to the 3.5 yr old and 15 stuffed animals last night.
http://www.amazon.com/Hippos-Go-Berserk-Sandra-Boynton/dp/0689834349
I'm so happy that those DEC 135 Spy puts I sold yesterday at 3.78 are now 4.24 bid. I really called it wrong on the reading of the minutes. All I heard was "more qe is coming unless things get really good" and I don't see things getting really good or bad in the next 3 months.
ReplyDeleteI watch Minyanville's Buzz and Banter everyday since it's free with T D Ameritrade. Peeps that don't normally seem bullish or bearish really seemed bearish to me.
Dang, had a whole paragraph ready to post and my screen locked up then deleted it.
ReplyDeleteBought 500 ANR at 6.76. I'll buy more once I see what natty does in mid Sep. I agree with Jessee's low price call on natty but it wouldn't surprise me to see us got lower in sep. Today was pretty strong thought with such a bearish storage number and the screen closing at flat.
We are thinking ISAAC will wind up reducing more demand than supply. You might see a lot of electrical lines down too.
Sold half of my remaining SLV today at 29.74, put a stop in of 28.71. That would be a thanks to tof for point out the SLV breakout the other day.
ReplyDeleteAnd NOK, also a thanks to TOF. I may sell half tomorrow and let the other half ride.
ADSK- I was basically told all of this a few weeks ago but never connected the dots.
ReplyDeleteThere is bound to be some short covering in NOK. I don't know why they can't show us the daily short interest. You can see the short interest as of 7/31/12 on the NASDAQ site.
ReplyDeleteOn Think Or Swim it says NOK is "Hard To Borrow".
Per Nasdaq
7/31/12 202,751,180 shares short
7/13/12 165,594,918 shares short
On 8/1/12, there is a big volume spike, looks like it was about 3 times the 10 day average or so and the candlestick shows something close to a gravestone doji which is bearish. NOK traded down one more day or normal volume then started to trade up. Today NOK traded up big on roughly 2.7 times the 10 day average volume so I'm thinking there is a lot of short covering going on. I'm concerned that the shorters may be waiting for a bit higher price before they give NOK a good smacking again.
Frigin crazy....Petaluma beats what was probably the best team in the USA bracket 11-1. USA finals Sat. morning. Knowing these kids and parents and what a small town we live in it's really damn near unbelievable.
ReplyDeleteBeat some chitty team from a state that will go nameless...
DeleteFunny guy. Everyone from Texas is fried from the heat.
DeletePHM gave a Landry 10 20 30 buy signal yesterday with a buy at 13.35, and a stop around 12.61. We'll see what tomorrow brings but I may add some shares to my existing position and use the 12.61 stop number. At 13.35 and with a $500 stop loss amount, that would be 700 shares with a 1st sell target of 14.09.
ReplyDeleteNOK - Hopefully you guys are still in this one and participated in today's breakout.
ReplyDeleteLooks to me like the breakout was bought...
Oh, and the APPL/Samsung jury is likely to rule tomorrow, should be a mixed bag that leans in Samsung's favor.
DeleteDurable goods orders data saves the open.
ReplyDeleteBOIL - Bid @ $41
ReplyDeleteNSPH - I was thinking this one would be red today but nope, not yet.
DELL - Are we considering this one?
ReplyDeleteNot here. That's part of the ADSK issue. They are changing EVERY thing to mobile/cloud/tablets.
DeleteOkay, I was thinking the fear was re: tablet competition.
DeleteFTWR - No longer trading?
ReplyDeleteF back at 9.18ish in a month would be a great spot for a year end run.
ReplyDeleteYeah, it would.
DeleteI keep thinking about this fiscal cliff issue, then yesterday Bollard said he doesn't think further stimulus will be needed, which makes sense if the FED wants to put the onus onto Congress to get the fiscal cliff addressed?
That would be the ideal outcome as far as I'm concerned.
DeleteNOK - Okay, where's a good entry, I'm thinking $2.85 would be nice...
ReplyDeleteCHD - Take a quickie look at this chart, I think it's making a pattern, like it's coiling in a pennant.
ReplyDeleteBOIL - Lowered my bid to $40.75, these natty plays can get brutal, so maybe I get another "low" entry.
ReplyDeleteTTM - This one seems to be approaching the rising 200SMA
ReplyDeleteXLF - Looks kinda oversold, don't it?
ReplyDelete$USD - Dollar kinda looks like it's forming an H&S with at 84, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteHard to believe, considering Europe appears so disorganized and the Chinese economy is cooling.
Perhaps by the time we hear about it, it's old news...
WHR - I guess the August breakout was real. And yet, the PE is still reasonable!
ReplyDeleteThat's interesting: we were supposed to have a large pullback in the PM sector today, but instead we got only a small morning weakness in some miners and yet ANOTHER positive day for gold and silver. The northbound train is MUCH lighter today, with many people having jumped off it yesterday. This is how people get left behind...
ReplyDeleteMy buy limit order for 10 more April $5 AUMN calls was executed this morning at $1.50. So now I'll wait for a pop in AUMN above its June $5.50 resistance level (SLV and GDXJ have already broken out of that resistance, and so AUMN will follow soon) so as to ditch my October calls...
ReplyDeleteBOIL - Dropped my bid another dollar, to give it some room.
ReplyDeletestill holding ugaz unfortunately. i saw the potential for a bull trap yesterday after watching the futures overnight but didn't act on it. i think they will walk it lower next week into the storage report to get everyone off the train. then it will rally. i'm looking for a couple of closes around the $2.65 to $2.7 area for nat gas. the parallel to the trading in the S&P 500 in july 2009 is almost identical.
DeleteI'm thinking the same thing, thus it won't happen.
DeleteBut I'll try being there if it does.....
NOK - I want back in this one and NSPH as well, you still in NOK?
What I really want is something I can just buy and have double in a year or two.
DeleteThat would be AUMN. :)
DeleteYou well could be right, in fact it could easily triple. ;)
DeleteAnyway, I can see the case for a lower dollar in the chart since 84 resistance failed.
DeleteMET - I sure do regret having missed this one...
ReplyDeleteNOK - WTF man, I'm tempted....
ReplyDeleteMGIC bought a little to hold and build stop is 4ish.
ReplyDeletePossible weekly bar reversal
Been trashed lately
Very good revenue growth
long at 4.59
DeleteUNG long 18.47
ReplyDeletestill shut in by 50 dma
closing on lows of last seven days
Risk could be to 15 if it gets wild to downside
CP - I'm out of NOK now. Moved it to Nat Gas which looks like a mistake (so far). My initial target on NOK was $3.25 which would have been 100% higher from the lows. It basically hit that today and yesterday on heavy volume. I would wait for a move to $2.92 to $3 to get in.
ReplyDeleteNat Gas could very well be right near a bottom right here...This dude has been pretty good on Nat Gas:
http://www.advicetrade.com/middayminute/What-Next-for-Nat-Gas-201208242046.html
Old articles to see he's been good:
http://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/7/2012/18/
http://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/6/2012/14/
One other thing: from top to bottom 5/18/12 to 6/13/12 it was 18 trading days. From top to bottom 7/31/12 to 8/24/12 it has been 18 trading days. Maybe just a coincidence.
From traders I read they're targeting $2.50...we all know how that works when most people are looking for the same thing. However, it could always happen. There is a down trend line from the 7/13 top to the 8/9 top and that basically got hit again. Right now Nat Gas looks to be trading quite technically and has nothing to do with inventory reports etc. For example, there was a very bullish report on 8/16; however the price of NG dropped. Yesterday the report was somewhat bearish yet the price rose. $2.70 to $2.75 has been an area of resistance / support and naturally the price closed today at $2.7. It also is part of the neckline in the inverted head and shoulders so its only natural that the price is right around there. If the IHS plays out then a move to $3.6 is the target. That's what I've been thinking all along in a swing trade. We shall see.
By the way CP, I believe NOK could very well get to $5 within 12 months. However, I think there will be a very big pullback most likely right around the 1st week of September after the Windows phones are released. I figured that Nat Gas could move to $3.60 and UGAZ would go to $44. That would be a return of 90%+ from here. I chose that over NOK at $2.75 because I saw no way for NOK to get to $5.2 (90% move) before Natty made that move. That was my thinking. As usual, though, if Nat Gas moves up to that I will sell early because I always sell about halfway through a move.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete