Saturday, September 1, 2012

9/1/12 Fly South

Tom, get your plane right on time I know your part'll go fine Fly down to Mexico As we move into fall 2012, I'm taking a second look at HDGE, an actively managed ETF composed entirely of equity shorts. On the long side, check out the insider buying on DAL and UAL. Two stocks which may be poised to ascend even as the markets dive.
Posted by at

128 comments:

  1. 2nd_aveSeptember 1, 2012 at 8:50 AM

    I have fond memories of trading airlines on the long side (along with sharkie) in 2009. Quite possibly the sector most trashed at the time.

    ReplyDelete
  2. 2nd_aveSeptember 1, 2012 at 1:35 PM

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hurricanes-dont-scare-natural-gas-anymore-2012-08-31

    ReplyDelete
  3. 2nd_aveSeptember 1, 2012 at 5:19 PM

    Homework assignment. I think I've found a fund I can live with for longer than a day. MFLDX. I'm asking all of you to find a reason (related either to fund performance or fund manager) not to put money into it.

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousSeptember 1, 2012 at 6:00 PM

    ill have to check that fund out later 2nd. had a nice day with the family down at the beach. 80 and sunny makes for a grat beach day. the little guy is liking the ocean. put in some head high waves (for him) and he was jumping up and down in my arms and laughing. so much fun.

    thx for the nat gas article. love reading across the board consensus that prices arent heading higher any time soon. you know my take on that. i predict a shocking drop in supplies soon, catching a lot of people off guard

    ReplyDelete
  5. ChickenpookieSeptember 1, 2012 at 7:08 PM

    Ha, if we do have a market crash, I won't think twice about gasoline (UGA) this time.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Telestar3dSeptember 1, 2012 at 7:21 PM

    http://beschloss.blogs.mydesert.com/2012/08/31/natural-gas-provides-generations-greatest-investment-opportunity/

    ReplyDelete
  7. ChickenpookieSeptember 2, 2012 at 7:55 AM

    Colonel Possum's gold target for this week:

    "Up, $1,705 per ounce target."

    ReplyDelete
  8. 2nd_aveSeptember 2, 2012 at 9:32 AM

    Thanks for the research guys, I appreciate it.

    ReplyDelete
  9. 2nd_aveSeptember 2, 2012 at 9:37 AM

    Morningstar profiles Aronstein> my kind of guy, down to his contrarian philosophy, his off-the-beaten-path small business experiences, and the fact that his fund is named after a tiny alleyway off of Wall Street.

    http://www.morningstar.com/advisor/t/54271629/undiscovered-in-plain-sight.htm?&ps=13

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2nd_aveSeptember 2, 2012 at 9:37 AM

      The guy's a freaking timer, man- a pretty good one. With strengths in macro + investor psychology.

      Delete
    2. 2nd_aveSeptember 2, 2012 at 10:41 AM

      He knows his limitations, and hires to plug the holes.

      Delete
  10. 2nd_aveSeptember 2, 2012 at 10:47 AM

    Fund appears to be better at limiting downside (via timely shorts) than at maximizing upside (tends to lag benchmarks during rallies). So the fund would make a good choice ahead of (expected) corrections.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Telestar3dSeptember 2, 2012 at 9:09 PM

    MFLDX, seems fine 2nd. I think we both prefer downside protection while giving up upside.

    Expense ratio somewhat high.

    ReplyDelete
  12. DavidSeptember 3, 2012 at 3:59 PM

    Interesting article:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-03/fed-moves-toward-open-ended-bond-purchases-to-satisfy-bernanke.html

    Gold may double sooner than we think...

    ReplyDelete
  13. DavidSeptember 3, 2012 at 5:09 PM

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf

    I took my eyes off this chart for a couple of years, but now it is time to come back to it in order to verify whether the recent jump in gold and silver has some base under it. And indeed it does! The decline in gold/silver in 2H 2011 was driven by the reduction in the monetary base, then there was a jump between late December and February (remember that nice rally in PMs?), then there was a decline until mid-summer, and then a rebound starting early July. If I see a big drop in that chart, I'll take some profits on my call options...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DavidSeptember 3, 2012 at 5:10 PM

      The monetary base expands when the Fed buys more securities. So if the Fed does announce some extra buying in mid-September, then that will automatically lead to an expansion of the monetary base, and as a corollary will lead to a jump in the PM sector.

      Delete
  14. Telestar3dSeptember 3, 2012 at 6:45 PM

    http://www.businessinsider.com/why-billionaire-frank-giustra-is-making-a-massive-bet-on-inflation-2012-9

    ReplyDelete
  15. MarkWSeptember 3, 2012 at 6:54 PM


    Wastewater-treatment company Heckmann Corp. HEK +0.37% is set to become a bigger player in the business of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, after agreeing to buy privately held Power Fuels Inc. in a cash-and-stock deal valued at about $381 million, a person close to the company said Monday.

    Heckmann supplies water and equipment used in the growing but controversial practice of fracking, in which drillers use a high-pressure mixture of water, sand and chemicals to break apart energy-rich rocks. Fracking is behind the recent boom in U.S. oil and gas production.

    Founder and Chief Executive Richard Heckmann is expected to announce the deal Tuesday, the person said. Heckmann will pay $125 million in cash and 95 million of its own shares, valued at about $256 million based on Friday's closing price of $2.69, to acquire Power Fuels, the person said. It also will assume $150 million in debt.

    Power Fuels is based near the North Dakota oil fields driving the surge in U.S. oil production; Heckmann is located in Pennsylvania near natural-gas sites.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Telestar3dSeptember 3, 2012 at 7:01 PM

    What's better Mark HEK or GSFVF (gasfrac)?

    ReplyDelete
  17. Port2017September 3, 2012 at 8:15 PM

    Last week Matt McAbby with Oakshire Financial predicted the following

    1. Obama wins the election. I agree.
    2. DOW 15,000 by year end. McAbby says inflation is inevitable with all the cash sloshing around. I see a good argument for 15,000 or 9,000 but I don't see a crash like we had in Mar09 so that makes me biased to the upside. I also agree with his inflation call. I'm surprised it hasn't happened already. We can go ahead and make the $47,000 a year median salary the poverty line.But we could also see a big slide in Q1 2013 based on the fiscal cliff.
    3. Gold at $1450. I have no idea.
    4. SLV at $22.50. I STILL have no idea.
    5. TLT around $110. Makes sense to me but I think it really depends on buddy Ben Bernanke. I thought the economy was doing pretty good with TLT in the upper $90's.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Port2017September 3, 2012 at 8:28 PM

    THis is a comment from a free weekly newsletter at Pear Fisher Investments. I'm only putting it here because this is the first time I've read about this. The author didn't point out with Fed person made this comment though.

    “…the possibility of a reduction in the rate that the fed will pay for bank reserves, possibly even going to a negative rate. If only half of the $1.5 trillion in Bank Reserves that are currently with the Fed are unleashed and put to work in all markets then it will surely have positive effects on all markets including equities, bonds and commodities.”

    ReplyDelete
  19. DavidSeptember 3, 2012 at 8:46 PM

    Thank you, T3d, for the Frank Guistra interview link! Some pretty powerful words from him...

    Here are some that ring true with my observation:

    "With respect to the mining shares, he said, “The resource market is in the worst state I’ve ever seen it in…people usually connect irrational and stupid market behavior with peaks of markets, but it takes place at the bottom of markets too. And it’s just as bad [at bottoms]…fear is a much stronger emotion than greed…[There are] companies developing world-class assets trading at pennies on the dollar.”

    Think AUMN, PNPFF...

    ReplyDelete
  20. Telestar3dSeptember 3, 2012 at 9:54 PM

    David, I was certain you would like it, glad you looked/listened.

    ReplyDelete
  21. BB CanadaSeptember 4, 2012 at 5:38 AM

    Got back from Holland yesterday and doesn't seem like I missed a whole lot - Jackson Hole pretty much what was expected.

    Can see why Europe is having issues when Holland, which is considered one of the strong countries, has 3 guys picking up recycling where we have 1 doing the same job in Canada. But, retail economy there overall seemed fine. Restaurants and shopping busy everywhere and hard to get into good places. Industry seemed to be having a tougher time and guy who has one of the biggest Volvo heavy truck dealerships in Holland said no-one buying big trucks and cutting back on service spending to save money.

    Nice to be in September though and looking forward to lots more activity in the market this month.

    ReplyDelete
  22. AnonymousSeptember 4, 2012 at 6:45 AM

    welcome back BB. hope you had a good trip.

    http://www.objectivetrader.com/2012/08/big-short-part-3-.html

    ReplyDelete
  23. MarkWSeptember 4, 2012 at 6:46 AM

    Man, HEK is clearing a ton of overhead resistance with one big jump.

    T3D- That's really a great question...which I have no answer. Maybe BB might. But this is exactly what HEK does. Same thing with US Filter.

    ReplyDelete
  24. MarkWSeptember 4, 2012 at 6:50 AM

    NFLX setting up? I doubt I could ever trade it though.

    ReplyDelete
  25. AnonymousSeptember 4, 2012 at 7:02 AM

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC:$NATGAS&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p47675005157

    Look at that weekly chart. Tell me that thing doesn't look like it's heading back down to $20 or below. I'm thinking $85 oil and $4.50 nat gas.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MarkWSeptember 4, 2012 at 7:14 AM

      Sure looks like it wants to test 27 at least.

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 7:40 AM

      BOIL - I'm back in where I last sold, $42.60

      Wish me luck!

      Delete
  26. MarkWSeptember 4, 2012 at 7:10 AM

    New low for ANR. Unbelievably, RSI is still not there.

    ReplyDelete
  27. MarkWSeptember 4, 2012 at 7:15 AM

    BK for DDMG?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousSeptember 4, 2012 at 7:42 AM

      i might have to step in here...

      Delete
    2. AnonymousSeptember 4, 2012 at 7:45 AM

      wow...sounds like DDMG is actually kind of technically in default:

      Item 2.04 Triggering Events That Accelerate or Increase a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement.

      (a) As previously disclosed on a Current Report on Form 8-K filed by Digital Domain Media Group, Inc. (the "Company") with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") on May 8, 2012, the Company issued, on May 7, 2012, a total of six senior secured convertible notes, in the aggregate original principal amount of $35 million (collectively, the "Senior Notes"), to a group of institutional investors. The Senior Notes contain a number of affirmative and negative covenants, including a covenant (the "Available Cash Covenant") requiring the Company to maintain certain minimum levels of Available Cash (as defined in the Senior Notes) as of certain specified measurement dates (collectively, the "Measurement Dates").

      In a Current Report on Form 8-K filed by the Company with the SEC on August 15, 2012, the Company disclosed that it had, on August 14, 2012, effective as of July 31, 2012, entered into separate Second Amendment Agreements with each of the holders of the Senior Notes (collectively, the "Second Amendment Agreement"). Pursuant to the terms of the Second Amendment Agreement, the Company and the holders of the Senior Notes amended the Senior Notes to change the second Measurement Date from July 31, 2012 to August 20, 2012.

      On August 21, 2012, each of the holders of the Senior Notes severally notified the Company in writing that the Senior Notes were in default, asserting, inter alia, that the Company had failed to satisfy the terms of the Available Cash Covenant applicable as of August 20, 2012, resulting in an immediate acceleration of all amounts owing under the Senior Notes, consisting of
      (i) aggregate outstanding principal of $35 million, and (ii) accrued interest, make-whole amounts (representing the amount of future interest payments foregone as the result of such acceleration), and other amounts owing thereunder aggregating an additional minimum amount of approximately $16 million, for a total minimum amount due thereunder of approximately $51 million. Simultaneously with the delivery of these notices of default, the holders of the Senior Notes severally advised the Company in writing that they were electing to forbear from collecting any amounts owing under the Senior Notes until such time as those elections were withdrawn. Each of those elections was withdrawn as of August 28, 2012. The Company and the holders of the Senior Notes are continuing to negotiate the terms of an extended forbearance arrangement, while the Company explores its options with respect to refinancing all or a portion of its obligations under the Senior Notes. There can be no assurance that the Company will be successful in its attempt to secure extended forbearance agreements with the holders of the Senior Notes; in the event that the Company were not to be successful in this regard, the holders of the Senior Notes may elect to pursue all of their available remedies under the Senior Notes arising as the result of an Event of Default (as defined therein), including, without limitation, foreclosing on the first-priority security interest in all of the personal property of the Company and its subsidiaries held by the Collateral Agent (as defined in the Senior Notes) for the benefit of the holders of the Senior Notes.

      The Company is currently evaluating (i), in conjunction with the holders of the Senior Notes, a term sheet received from an institutional investor proposing a senior secured debt financing transaction that would potentially refinance the Company's obligations under the Senior Notes as well as provide operating funds to the Company, and (ii) a term sheet received from a business

      Delete
    3. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 7:51 AM

      IMAX - This one's right on lower trend line now, or never?

      Delete
  28. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 7:28 AM

    NG - This sucker just keeps on going... UP!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousSeptember 4, 2012 at 7:46 AM

      my position in UGAZ has gone from up 10% to down 15% to up 5% in a span of about 2 weeks.

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 7:56 AM

      +10 -> -15 -> +5 Sounds like a coil, doesn't it?

      Thursdays are inventory day, right?

      Delete
    3. AnonymousSeptember 4, 2012 at 8:07 AM

      yeah every thursday. i've nearly shat my pants 2 thursdays in a row now. may have to get some adult diapers for this upcoming one.

      Delete
  29. MarkWSeptember 4, 2012 at 7:44 AM

    Well, FB WAS green there for a while...

    ReplyDelete
  30. AnonymousSeptember 4, 2012 at 7:48 AM

    most of my stocks on my list are green...what is pulling the market down?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MarkWSeptember 4, 2012 at 7:56 AM

      XLI

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 7:59 AM

      My guess is b/c the dollar has barely failed trend line support and it could begin moving up from here?

      Dollar hasn't broken down, IMO, just testing support.

      Delete
    3. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 8:04 AM

      XLI - Yes, higher commodities aren't positive for XLI, neither is a slowing Asia and Europe.

      Assuming global economy is contracting, there will now be a move back into the dollar?

      The US fiscal cliff could place us back into recession depending on how it's handled (or not handled)?

      Simple profit taking and retest of support before resuming higher?

      SAN - This one's nicely green, there's one positive data point...

      Delete
    4. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 8:10 AM

      Blue moon effect wearing off.
      End of month dog and pony show is done, next act preparing to come on stage?

      Delete
  31. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 8:07 AM

    TTM - I'd considered taking a position in this one, but today it's looking like there's unfinished business down a bit lower...

    ReplyDelete
  32. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 8:08 AM

    BOIL - Wishing I'd bought more...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 8:32 AM

      Or perhaps I shoulda waited a little longer... LOL!

      Delete
  33. BB CanadaSeptember 4, 2012 at 8:42 AM

    Seems like a lot of people are expecting a top soon from most people here, to Jeff Saut this week via the Bespoke election cycle, to the guys who read the market technicals, Objective Trader and the commercial hedgers.

    Usually when everyone expects something in the market, it doesn't happen - it either happens early as everyone is positioned ahead of it - so perhaps we have already topped, or it goes on a lot lnger than people suspect - so maybe we continue to grind higher the rest of the year.

    Not doing anything with my stocks yet, just trying to get a better feel for things for now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousSeptember 4, 2012 at 9:02 AM

      BB - I still think the wisest thing to do right now is to look for things to go long in and to definitely not short anything. If we get a pullback it should be quick. I'm just focusing on setups right now. My opinion of the market is completely worthless. I know if I get caught up in that game I will miss out on opportunities.

      Delete
  34. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 9:06 AM

    KOL - A new low!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 9:25 AM

      Looks like this destroys the IH&S I thought was there...

      Delete
  35. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 9:13 AM

    BOIL - Watch as I get my ass-hat handed to me on this one for going long...

    This time I ride it down and add to the position. Sounds dangerous, don't it?

    I'm really not a moron, but in order to fake out the market I have to trade like I'm one.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousSeptember 4, 2012 at 9:15 AM

      CP - I've learned to ignore the intraday moves on Natty because it's so damn volatile. I've had swings of 15% on UGAZ intraday, which translates into 5% swings in natty and 10% swings in BOIL. Right now it's tame!

      Delete
  36. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 9:17 AM

    NSPH - This f'n thing's never coming back to $2's...

    ReplyDelete
  37. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 9:54 AM

    SD - Looks like it's about to drop for a $5 handle visit.

    ReplyDelete
  38. AnonymousSeptember 4, 2012 at 10:06 AM

    BTU setting up for a double bottom. I still believe nat gas is the play instead of coal, which naturally sees higher prices on the back of higher nat gas. I think the environmentalists may have hurt the coal industry more than we know.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 10:44 AM

      "I think the environmentalists may have hurt the coal industry more than we know."

      Well, bingo! Environmentalists with purist thoughts on their minds leading us down the garden path yet again? I just don't think there's gonna be enough NG to accomplish this feat.

      The phenomenon of converting some large fraction of America's power generation to NG has to be a victory for environmentalists, there's just no better explanation I can imagine.

      http://www.americaspower.org/truth-about-cost-natural-gas

      What bothers me most is, these are the same environmentalists that attempted to sell the concept of substituting solar energy. Which might work if we cover the earth with solar panels or relocate a majority of civilization to the equator. Snowball in Hell phenomenon.

      Speaking of garden paths, I really wouldn't mind living in Mombasa, it's a beautiful place.

      http://www.jrank.org/history/pages/8365/Looking-At-KENYA.html

      Delete
    2. AnonymousSeptember 4, 2012 at 11:37 AM

      CP - Just imagine if oil doesn't retrace but heads to $150 and we get a 15:1 ratio oil to nat gas. That would make a lot of people scratch their heads.

      Delete
    3. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 12:11 PM

      Yeah, at least we can be thankful gasoline isn't putting another new high again today.

      Delete
  39. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 10:10 AM

    AUMN - Holy bat, crap man! ;)

    ReplyDelete
  40. DavidSeptember 4, 2012 at 11:33 AM

    AUMN has cleared the $5.50 resistance level, against which it bumped 3 times since early June. It should quickly run till about $8 now, then take a breath, and then ascend to the February highs of $10. What else would you expect from a company "developing world-class assets trading at pennies on the dollar"?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 12:28 PM

      Looks like it's set to breeze past SVM in the next day or two.

      Delete
  41. MarkWSeptember 4, 2012 at 12:33 PM

    A 40% move by acquiring am small Frac Co?

    ReplyDelete
  42. MarkWSeptember 4, 2012 at 12:52 PM

    CP- We might have missed our shot at NSPH when it pulled back a few days ago to 3.16.

    ReplyDelete
  43. DavidSeptember 4, 2012 at 1:06 PM

    If you believe in the solar story, then you should watch FSLR closely for signs that the recent pullback is just a pullback during an uptrend...

    ReplyDelete
  44. DavidSeptember 4, 2012 at 1:33 PM

    Since around 50% of the PNPFF portfolio consists of PM miners, it ultimately has to follow GDXJ. So buying PNPFF now is a low-risk proposition, since it will HAVE to surge soon in order to catch up with GDXJ (which in itself will keep surging in order to catch up with gold/silver)...

    ReplyDelete
  45. AnonymousSeptember 4, 2012 at 2:09 PM

    Potential breakout alert: GREK, EWI, EWP...all euro trash. I agree that it's a buy across the board over there. A rebound in those economies will really juice our markets.

    ReplyDelete
  46. DavidSeptember 4, 2012 at 3:23 PM

    I just noticed that today's breakout in AUMN happened on the largest volume in 2 months, so it is most likely for real...

    ReplyDelete
  47. Port2017September 4, 2012 at 3:53 PM

    FSLR, thx for bringing that one back up. It's worth watching but I don't like the big drop on volume 2 trading days ago.

    AUMN - so was Friday the breakout with a trigger in the $5.20's? It's looking good but I think its a missed move for me.

    CHUY - DANG why did I sell? I'm going to wait a bit on this one. May have to buy it higher.

    NOK - still watching for a break through $3.05, stop around $2.63 ish.

    I was skimming through Landry's book again and I'm thinking a lot of his 10 20 30 MA trades could be Cup with a handle or just a bull flag (or pennat, i forget). Either way, I don't think I'm picking up on the best setups yet but for some reason, Landry's book has helped me set up the stops a little better.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Port2017September 4, 2012 at 3:55 PM

    DVN looks like its sitting right at the bottom of the channel started in June, could be a low risk entry WITH A STOP IN PLACE.

    ReplyDelete
  49. AnonymousSeptember 4, 2012 at 4:12 PM

    i wouldn't be surprised if FSLR is a buy right now. thats the hard trade

    ReplyDelete
  50. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 4:45 PM

    Monthly Electricity update
    Release date: August 24th

    << June 2012 vs June 2011 >>
    Coal consumption fell -14.7%
    Natural gas consumption increased 24.9%

    http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MarkWSeptember 4, 2012 at 5:20 PM

      Neat link CP. Thanks. Let's try and remember it get updated near the end of each month.

      Delete
    2. illiniSeptember 4, 2012 at 5:28 PM

      Wow...the beat go's on. Coal down and NG stagnates. I still hold half of an old position in BTU.

      Delete
  51. ChickenpookieSeptember 4, 2012 at 7:50 PM

    NG - Oh crap, MS was pumping natty today:

    http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2012/09/04/natural-gas-prices-set-to-hurdle-coal-to-gas-roadblock-ms/?mod=yahoobarrons

    ReplyDelete
  52. Port2017September 4, 2012 at 8:21 PM

    Interesting title.


    http://www.foxbusiness.com/investing/2012/09/04/history-shows-markets-gdp-outperform-under-democrats/

    ReplyDelete
  53. Port2017September 4, 2012 at 8:27 PM

    on natty, temps are way up and there seems to be less nuke power at the moment so power generators are burning. You could see it in the cash market today and I'm guessing it stays through the end of the week.

    My coworker still thinks we see lower prices over the next 3 months but he also see's a rally to $4.00ish after the next drop. He said a drop to $70 or so in oil prices would take out a lot of the associated gas (associated gas is a well that is mainly oil but also produces some gas) giving a boost to prices. At that point he thinks your dry gas producers will be the best bet. His favorite is still DVN.

    free thoughts for what its worth

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Port2017September 4, 2012 at 8:34 PM

      And a related article from MAD. I think you can pull this up without a subscription.

      The "peace dividend" is the collapse in Syria leaving only Iran and the major threat in the middle east. He says if Iran had a nuclear device the would either already used it or Israeli would have already attacked.

      I dunno about all that. I don't see $30 oil if we even have a decent economy but I think its an interesting angle. That would certainly give a boost to natty prices, I think.

      http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/here-comes-the-next-peace-dividend-2/

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieSeptember 5, 2012 at 7:00 AM

      It does appear WTIC might be rolling over...

      Delete
  54. Port2017September 4, 2012 at 8:38 PM

    Microsoft, Nokia Pin Hopes on New Lumia as Mobile War Escalates

    posted at 10:27 PM ET on CNBC


    http://www.cnbc.com/id/48904177
    "Nokia and Microsoft will take the wraps off the struggling European company's most powerful smartphone on Wednesday, in what may be their last major shot at winning back a market lost to Apple, Samsung and Google."

    "The world's largest software maker and the Finnish company that once dominated the cellphone market will showcase the device in New York on Wednesday morning and demo it for industry insiders about the same time in Helsinki."

    ReplyDelete
  55. AnonymousSeptember 4, 2012 at 9:15 PM

    Tomorrow is going to be one volatile day in NOK

    ReplyDelete
  56. ChickenpookieSeptember 5, 2012 at 7:17 AM

    HEK - The beach ball is lookin' much better these past couple days.

    ReplyDelete
  57. ChickenpookieSeptember 5, 2012 at 7:20 AM

    UNG - Um, okay, so yesterday's gap up needed to close or what???

    ReplyDelete
  58. AnonymousSeptember 5, 2012 at 7:22 AM

    Dell will have in net cash more than its market cap in 7 quarters.

    ReplyDelete
  59. ChickenpookieSeptember 5, 2012 at 7:28 AM

    FB - This thing's green!?!!?!!?!!

    Zuckerberg said he's not in any hurry to dump his position, how nice of him!

    ReplyDelete
  60. 2nd_aveSeptember 5, 2012 at 7:41 AM

    Opened HDGE @ 21.6x...

    ReplyDelete
  61. 2nd_aveSeptember 5, 2012 at 8:11 AM

    Did NOK trip up?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousSeptember 5, 2012 at 8:14 AM

      sell the news bro. $2.3 is the 61.8% retracement level. If natty can rally here to $2.9 and it gets to $2.3 I will make the switch for a trade.

      Delete
  62. AnonymousSeptember 5, 2012 at 8:31 AM

    NOK sure looks like a panic selloff...could be an excellent entry point.

    ReplyDelete
  63. AnonymousSeptember 5, 2012 at 8:41 AM

    GREK and NBG rallying nicely today. Gyros anyone?

    ReplyDelete
  64. ChickenpookieSeptember 5, 2012 at 9:16 AM

    NOK - Last week I had a bid on this one @ $2.47

    ReplyDelete
  65. ChickenpookieSeptember 5, 2012 at 9:54 AM

    JJC - This one's very green, must be result of more promises from Europe.

    ReplyDelete
  66. ChickenpookieSeptember 5, 2012 at 10:31 AM

    NG - This shit makes me wonder if permission wasn't just granted to drill Yellowstone Park...

    ReplyDelete
  67. ChickenpookieSeptember 5, 2012 at 11:08 AM

    CIT - Offering 1.05% APR on your money and spending money to advertise it.

    PAL - Up more (%) than FB

    ReplyDelete
  68. MarkWSeptember 5, 2012 at 11:09 AM

    Busy morning. Some interesting swings going on here.

    ReplyDelete
  69. DavidSeptember 5, 2012 at 11:10 AM

    AUMN is defying gravity, ignoring the fact that both SLV and GDXJ are red...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousSeptember 5, 2012 at 11:56 AM

      I assume you're not looking at the 1 year chart right?

      Delete
  70. DavidSeptember 5, 2012 at 11:12 AM

    Yesterday, UNG was up and BTU was down. Today, UNG is down and BTU is up! So something else is going on with BTU besides the play off NG...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieSeptember 5, 2012 at 12:37 PM

      Perhaps coal isn't dying a dirty death after all?

      BTU has other stuff going on like Mongolia, don't they?

      Delete
  71. 2nd_aveSeptember 5, 2012 at 11:15 AM

    I could say something about DAL/UAL, but I won't. I didn't trade 'em.

    ReplyDelete
  72. MarkWSeptember 5, 2012 at 11:30 AM

    TOF- I just emailed MOG and am checking further, but if this is true, it's wild...


    "PXP said it would need $8 gas to warrant directing capital to Haynesville."- Barclay's Conference.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousSeptember 5, 2012 at 11:30 AM

      yeah that's why nat gas will not stay down here for very long. XOM said it's losing its shirt on nat gas.

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieSeptember 5, 2012 at 12:41 PM

      PXP - The other option might be if oil went to $150, but isn't peace on the verge of breaking out in the middle east?

      I heard today that Pakistan is bankrupt.

      Delete
  73. AnonymousSeptember 5, 2012 at 11:32 AM

    today has been an interesting day in nat gas. There are several support/resistance areas:
    $2.88 resistance
    $2.80 support/resistance
    $2.77 support/resistance

    This could be a nice little shakeout today, get some stops taken out below $2.80 then rip it higher. It wouldn't shock me to see it close at $2.84 (flat) on day.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousSeptember 5, 2012 at 11:34 AM

      just as possible is a close below $2.76. I have never seen a more volatile commodity ever.

      Delete
  74. MarkWSeptember 5, 2012 at 12:02 PM

    Damn, what a great guy...

    "8$ seems high. I would think 5.50-6$ will put rigs back to work in Haynesville but not sure of PXP's acreage, etc. Costs have escalated, maybe they are anticipating increasing costs with 5.50 gas."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousSeptember 5, 2012 at 12:04 PM

      i haven't seen a single company that can operate profitably in the shale gas plays at $2.80 nat gas. if XOM is losing their shirts then it makes you wonder. perhaps there will be a massive production drop out the blue some time soon? the rig count correlation has not worked but maybe there's a lag time. McClendon said he expects a big drop soon I believe.

      Delete
    2. MarkWSeptember 5, 2012 at 12:10 PM

      I'd like to see what % associated gas contributes.

      Delete
    3. AnonymousSeptember 5, 2012 at 12:38 PM

      yeah i have no idea. i might cut bait on the nat gas trade. not really feeling like sitting through another thursday.

      Delete
    4. ChickenpookieSeptember 5, 2012 at 1:01 PM

      PXP/XOM - Perhaps they're gonna be turning some production screws in order to obtain/maintain governmental concessions?

      Delete
  75. ChickenpookieSeptember 5, 2012 at 12:32 PM

    Hedge fund trader in his "peace dividend" piece says:

    "The implications for the financial markets will be enormous. The U.S. will reap a peace dividend as large, or larger, than the one we enjoyed after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1992. As you may recall, that black swan caused the Dow Average to soar from 2,000 to 10,000 in less than eight years, also partly fueled by the technology boom. A collapse in oil imports will cause the U.S. dollar to rocket. An immediate halving of our defense spending to $400 billion or less and burgeoning new tax revenues would cause the budget deficit to collapse. With the U.S. government gone as a major new borrower, interest rates across the yield curve will fall further.

    A peace dividend will also cause U.S. GDP growth to reaccelerate from 2% to 4%. Risk assets of every description will soar to multiples of their current levels, including stocks, junk bonds, commodities, precious metals, and food. The Dow will soar to 20,000, the Euro collapses to parity, gold rockets to $2,300 an ounce, silver flies to $100 an ounce, copper leaps to $6 a pound, and corn recovers $8 a bushel. The 60-year bull market in bonds ends."

    I recall reading this before and to me, this sounds like pure nonsense and here's why: Okay, if the euro moves to parity, doesn't this imply that the world's reserve currency strengthens and thus gold should be priced downward, not $2,300?

    He also says the 60yr bond rally ends, but he also says that rates continue falling. Huh?

    So who is this madhedgefundtrader dude and why should anyone listen to him when what he's saying is just as self-contradictory as BC, obviously he'll be proven both right and wrong b/c he chooses both sides he can just cherry pick later on.

    Thus, sounds like complete BS to me.

    ReplyDelete
  76. AnonymousSeptember 5, 2012 at 12:42 PM

    Sold all UGAZ at $24. no i can go back to sleeping ok at night.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2nd_aveSeptember 5, 2012 at 1:45 PM

      I understand completely. Even holding a mini-position in UGAZ has me waking from a sound sleep to check the 'Droid 2-3 times a night!

      Delete
    2. AnonymousSeptember 5, 2012 at 2:34 PM

      yeah it's not healthy.

      Delete
  77. ChickenpookieSeptember 5, 2012 at 12:43 PM

    BTU - Looking at that chart, I don't see it going anywhere.

    ReplyDelete
  78. ChickenpookieSeptember 5, 2012 at 12:49 PM

    TTM - Today could be a good entry, I'm going to wait at least till tomorrow though.

    ReplyDelete
  79. AnonymousSeptember 5, 2012 at 12:57 PM

    crap...said i wouldn't do it but i did. bought TZA at $16 for a trade.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Telestar3dSeptember 5, 2012 at 1:04 PM

    NXPI has a decent daily chart siting on/off 50 dma

    long

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MarkWSeptember 5, 2012 at 2:25 PM

      That is a nice chart. Also the 100 with the 365 right below. Any fundy to it?

      Delete
  81. ChickenpookieSeptember 5, 2012 at 1:19 PM

    Dang it's gotten hot and humid here again, crank up the A/C!

    ReplyDelete
  82. AnonymousSeptember 5, 2012 at 3:36 PM

    man looking at the way NOK reacted to news today makes me think AAPL might see the same result on 9/12/12. Anyone else think this?

    ReplyDelete
  83. AnonymousSeptember 5, 2012 at 3:43 PM

    read these comments:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/bull-markets-die-hard-could-end-150036500.html

    and people say there are too many bulls? i find that hard to believe.

    ReplyDelete
  84. 2nd_aveSeptember 5, 2012 at 4:24 PM

    new post

    ReplyDelete

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