Thursday, September 13, 2012

9/13/12 No Direction Home

Nobody’s ever taught you how to trade out on the Street, And now you're gonna have to get used to it You say you never compromise With the UGAZ tramp, but now you realize She's not offering any alibis As you stare into the vacuum of her eyes And say, “Do you want to make a deal? +3.6% return for the total port in one week, bro (netting out all costs, including yet another 2% ST trading fee for ICHKX). Now +14.5% YTD.
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77 comments:

  1. 2nd_aveSeptember 13, 2012 at 3:49 PM

    Sure, I could have bought leveraged funds in place of EZU and FXI/CAF. But I don't think I would have gotten any sleep.

    ReplyDelete
  2. 2nd_aveSeptember 13, 2012 at 4:32 PM

    Hey- is it possible to refi a refi loan that just funded?

    ReplyDelete
  3. ChickenpookieSeptember 13, 2012 at 4:35 PM

    Good work, man! ;)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2nd_aveSeptember 13, 2012 at 5:16 PM

      The next task will be reentry. No joke. We are definitely poised to take off over the next several months.

      Delete
    2. BB CanadaSeptember 13, 2012 at 6:05 PM

      Definitely some risks in being fully out of the market right here.

      Saw the S&P500 futures broke outside the top of their Bollinger Bands for the first time in 10 years today. Sign it's a top or the start of a heck of a breakout.

      Delete
    3. 2nd_aveSeptember 13, 2012 at 6:35 PM

      No worries:

      (a) Markets always pull back. Even if I reenter higher than my exit price, it will still be on a pullback.
      (b) Performance anxiety is less of a problem right now since (i) my recent gains in China/Europe have outperformed the US, and (ii) YTD gains are in line with YTD gains for US indexes.
      (c) Theoretically, I could go on buying negativity and selling euphoria for the next year, and still match what I foresee as a +20% gain between now and September 2013.

      Delete
    4. 2nd_aveSeptember 13, 2012 at 6:37 PM

      I think we need to correct about -2% over the next week or two. That would provide a pretty nice launch pad.

      Delete
    5. 2nd_aveSeptember 13, 2012 at 6:38 PM

      Individual traders are still only 60% invested, last I read. Plenty of fuel.

      Delete
  4. 2nd_aveSeptember 13, 2012 at 5:38 PM

    Hussman Strategic Growth. 'Nuff said.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BB CanadaSeptember 13, 2012 at 5:57 PM

      Good thing he was fully hedged as stocks are in the top 0.5% expensive of all time! Don't know why smart guys like him can't get their head around the fact that the 10 year trailing earnings probably isn't the best metric to use when you've had a financial crisis which wiped out bank earnings on a 1-time basis (hopefully) and actual earnings going forward will be higher.

      Delete
    2. 2nd_aveSeptember 13, 2012 at 6:16 PM

      The TFM (trend-following moron) has definitely outperformed the 'smart guy,' probably by a mile.

      Delete
  5. ChickenpookieSeptember 13, 2012 at 7:34 PM

    BAC - Admits to having discriminated against handicapped mortgage applicants.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MarkWSeptember 13, 2012 at 8:18 PM

      WTF does that mean? They jacked rates/fee's on disabled people?

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieSeptember 13, 2012 at 9:29 PM

      Dunno details, just heard it on the radio. There's probably articles flying around on the subject.

      Delete
    3. MarkWSeptember 13, 2012 at 10:00 PM

      Man, if that's true it's so Fing sick.

      Delete
    4. BB CanadaSeptember 14, 2012 at 5:19 AM

      I'd like to buy BAC stock as it is very cheap and their business is improving, but man they seem to have a lot of skeletons in their closet.

      Delete
  6. AnonymousSeptember 14, 2012 at 6:32 AM

    anybody have GBG on their watch list?

    ReplyDelete
  7. 2nd_aveSeptember 14, 2012 at 6:35 AM

    UNH replacing KFT in the DJIA as of September 24.

    ReplyDelete
  8. 2nd_aveSeptember 14, 2012 at 6:38 AM

    UGAZ> not again.

    ReplyDelete
  9. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 6:43 AM

    AUMN - Raising cash, or what?

    ReplyDelete
  10. AnonymousSeptember 14, 2012 at 6:51 AM

    NSPH breaking out of the down trend.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousSeptember 14, 2012 at 6:51 AM

      i should say attempting to break out.

      Delete
  11. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 6:55 AM

    AUMN - Picked some up @ $5.76, couldn't resist.

    ReplyDelete
  12. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 7:06 AM

    KOL - This baby is flying, doubting NG goes much lower?

    ReplyDelete
  13. AnonymousSeptember 14, 2012 at 7:07 AM

    YRCW - looks like yesterday was just a profit taking day. I still think you're looking at a $30 stock in $7 clothing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MarkWSeptember 14, 2012 at 7:23 AM

      I was thinking maybe fuel prices.

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 7:34 AM

      I was thinking fuel as well. Hope they hedged!

      Last night a prominent economist claimed the US economy wasn't growing, while explaining reasons for Bernanke's move yesterday.

      Based on oil prices alone, I'd say BS!

      Delete
  14. 2nd_aveSeptember 14, 2012 at 7:11 AM

    What's behind the drop in NGas prices?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 7:21 AM

      SOSDD, pricey oil means more oil+gas supply (they come from same hole in ground)?

      Delete
  15. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 7:27 AM

    TBT - Also flying, will higher rates throw REIT's for a loop?

    ReplyDelete
  16. 2nd_aveSeptember 14, 2012 at 7:28 AM

    All I can is watch right now. Probably along with Mark.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MarkWSeptember 14, 2012 at 7:36 AM

      Pull up a stool bro...Re-natty, there's just too much of the chit.

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 7:37 AM

      PGM - In a normal world, platinum costs more per ounce than gold.

      Delete
  17. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 7:46 AM

    BAC - Discrimination case doesn't sound like a widespread phenomenon, I recall same subject from before with Countrywide?:

    http://www.mahanyertl.com/mahanyertl/bank-of-america-settles-hud-complaint-alleging-discrimination-against-disabled/2017/

    ReplyDelete
  18. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 7:52 AM

    AUMN - I'm a little concerned silver won't hold $34.48 today...

    ReplyDelete
  19. 2nd_aveSeptember 14, 2012 at 7:53 AM

    Mark- How long since your last trade?

    ReplyDelete
  20. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 8:03 AM

    PAL - These guys have a very nice palladium asteroid buryied in their mine.

    ReplyDelete
  21. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 8:12 AM

    NG - I don't know for sure, but I think it might be possible to trade BOIL and make money, just buy it at end of a positive day and sell it the first negative day that comes.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Telestar3dSeptember 14, 2012 at 8:55 AM

    reposting from Cara:

    Re: Call your local banker

    Submitted by Telestar3d (613 comments) on Fri, 09/14/2012 - 11:43 #113348(in reply to #113347)


    This may help some, find out who your current owner of your mortgage is and ask for a "rate modification."

    I was put off by the amount of fees all lenders seemed to want for a refi. I called my lender and said I was going to refi if they did not lower my rate and they offered to do a rate modification for $250. Of course I took the deal.

    I have never missed a payment with the lender which I suppose helps. In the end they still have a good deal as it was 3.125% and they kept the loan term the same which in my case they still have a above market rate, but it sure beats 5.25% I was paying.

    Give it a try if you like.

    ReplyDelete
  23. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 9:23 AM

    AUMN - All out @ $6.00

    ReplyDelete
  24. DavidSeptember 14, 2012 at 10:12 AM

    Wow, what a gift with AUMN! This is a temporary discount in price, until September 19, while market participants are hoping to get a part of this offering at $5.75. Once this offering will be completely sold, we'll have the same great company but with additional $40M in cash, which will be definitely sufficient for them to expand their production to 850 tpd and make all necessary preparation for expanding it further to 1150 tpd. I bet the price of AUMN jumps on September 20, once this offering is no longer available...

    I just picked up 30 more contracts of April $5 calls at $1.75...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DavidSeptember 14, 2012 at 10:22 AM

      Could not resist and bought 2000 more shares of AUMN at $5.98. This is a rare chance, buying the company at THE bottom of its possible price (there is no reason why its price should fall below $5.75) while the future of the company is so rosy...

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 10:55 AM

      I can tell you're a great dad, David! ;)

      Delete
  25. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 10:41 AM

    What is it about AUMN and $6.00 ?

    ReplyDelete
  26. KyleSeptember 14, 2012 at 10:55 AM

    Springheel Jack ‏@shjackcharts
    #ES Rising channel resistance holding so far on strongly negative RSI divergence: http://screencast.com/t/V9HG5BB3S

    ReplyDelete
  27. 2nd_aveSeptember 14, 2012 at 10:57 AM

    Opened UGAZ @ 27.74, and offed the tramp @ 28.14. Hehe.

    ReplyDelete
  28. 2nd_aveSeptember 14, 2012 at 11:08 AM

    Played with the other tramp for good measure> TZA opened @ 13.47 and offed @ 13.54.

    ReplyDelete
  29. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 11:24 AM

    IMAX - All this stimulation and IMAX still can't manage a stiffy?

    ReplyDelete
  30. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 12:22 PM

    UNG - This SOB's gonna close above it's opening price, ain't it?

    ReplyDelete
  31. DavidSeptember 14, 2012 at 12:27 PM

    If AUMN does not drop below $5.75 until September 19, then it will be a clear proof that the bottom is in, and so I'll buy much more of it next Tuesday...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 12:35 PM

      Especially if silver can hang onto $34.48, seems like it gonna pull back best I can tell(WTFDIK!).

      Delete
  32. DavidSeptember 14, 2012 at 12:30 PM

    Diverting my attention from AUMN for a little while, just wanted to mention that my $1.25 sell limit order for 1000 shares of PNPFF was hit today at $1.28. Correspondingly, I placed a buy limit at $1.10. My next sell limits are at $1.40 and $1.60. Let the money pump begin!

    ReplyDelete
  33. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 12:31 PM

    Hold your nose as Mr. Market walks on by...

    Foolish pride
    Is all that I have left
    So let me hide
    The tears and the sadness you gave me
    When you said goodbye
    Walk on by

    ReplyDelete
  34. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 12:41 PM

    TTM - This sucker ran 21%

    ReplyDelete
  35. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 12:43 PM

    So what's the new story, the world must be in trouble b/c Ben was forced to take such drastic action?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MarkWSeptember 14, 2012 at 2:04 PM

      And that we fall off the fiscal cliff. If I have to miss out for another month, so be it. I'm not buying up here but will wait for stocks like NSPH to try and swing.

      Delete
  36. DavidSeptember 14, 2012 at 2:09 PM

    I just got a great idea! I in my Scottrade account, I have only stocks with no margin debt, for a total of $32K today. On Tuesday, if AUMN still stays between $5.75 and $6, I will sell EVERYTHING in that account and will put all that money into April $2.50 calls options on AUMN (since I expect AUMN to jump back to $7 as soon as the current share offering is sold). THAT will be a trade. :)

    ReplyDelete
  37. BB CanadaSeptember 14, 2012 at 2:16 PM

    Not sure why AUMN gave such a good price on their secondary. Guess it must have been in the works for a while and the stock was in that range less than 2 weeks ago, but still, I think they would have don much better to wait a couple of weeks and see if the stock could have held the $7 range and then done the secondary in the high 6's.

    Oh well, won't matter much in the long run if they get their mine done.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DavidSeptember 14, 2012 at 3:57 PM

      Maybe once AUMN saw their share price rise above $5, they were so happy about the worst times being behind them that they started negotiating a secondary to raise more cash for their production expansion. After the recent vertical rally, they probably decided that $5.75 is good enough and they have to lock it in. Then, AUMN jumped to $7, but it was too late, as the $5.75 was already locked in...

      Delete
  38. AnonymousSeptember 14, 2012 at 4:51 PM

    Don't tell Dan Marino this is a bull market:
    http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/dish/201209/dan-marino-loses-millions-company-gone-bankrupt

    ReplyDelete
  39. ChickenpookieSeptember 14, 2012 at 10:00 PM

    NSPH - Files a shelf.....

    ReplyDelete
  40. DavidSeptember 14, 2012 at 11:25 PM

    Check this out, folks:

    http://brucekrasting.com/ben-wins-who-loses/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieSeptember 15, 2012 at 5:47 AM

      Food inflation is said to be the underlying reason behind middle eastern unrest, where a large majority live on an income of $2/day.

      Delete
  41. ChickenpookieSeptember 15, 2012 at 5:48 AM

    Gold forecast for next week: $1800

    ReplyDelete
  42. ChickenpookieSeptember 15, 2012 at 6:13 AM

    TBT - Quite a gain there, perhaps there are big changes coming after all?

    Higher rates though, don't contribute much towards increasing home prices....

    ReplyDelete
  43. ChickenpookieSeptember 15, 2012 at 6:58 AM

    According to the EIA, peak oil--crude oil and lease condensates--on a full year basis remains 2004, with 74.4 mbpd. The next best year is 2011, with 74.1 mbpd.

    Upstream production spending 2004 was $300B, 2011 was $600B

    ReplyDelete
  44. ChickenpookieSeptember 15, 2012 at 10:19 PM

    HSY - Can we get this one at or below $62 sometime in the near future?

    ReplyDelete

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