Thursday, September 20, 2012
9/20/12 U-Turn
VEURX/ VEIEX closed down -0.54%/ -0.7%. On the other hand, VEURX registered a +0.47% gain yesterday. All other positions closed midday (not at intraday highs, but well off intraday lows). 2-day round-trip dinged the portfolio -0.37%, which is quite manageable and exactly why I take losses immediately. Today's pullback appeared 'orderly' and probably indicates a rest prior to new highs, but I don't have the guts to stick around and find out! Sooner or later we're due for at least a significant correction.
Compared to waking up around 2 am this morning to red skies in Asia, I have every reason to down an IPA.
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We all know I can be dead wrong. However, I feel obligated to state what's on my mind- we're about to see a correction, and I would get the ---- out now. Seriously.
ReplyDeleteAll of the above was posted prior to the IPA! Looking for a bottle opener right now.
Deletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-hard-landing-2012-9#
ReplyDeleteSobering slide show.
Didn't see too worrisome to me. Just a natural process of cleaning out excesses...
DeleteDoesn't your brother live in China?
Delete"Six major bridges have collapsed since July 2011.
Delete99 road cave-ins have been reported in Beijing in the July-August period this year.
Some of the infrastructure projects have been dubbed "bridges to nowhere" and there are frequent reports of high vacancy rates on trains."
I don't know about point 3 but points one and two would concern me quite a bit.
Deployed a lot of my cash last week in a defensive way. Bought a newer issue preferred stock of an REIT paying out at 6.5%. Liking my PHYS and RBY, not so much GEVO and Gasfrac but thinking they will come along eventually. Loving NSPH for the long term. Hating BTU and GTY but will not sell at fire sale prices. Not trading much at all. Just looking. Not seeing any good merchandise on sale. DMND is distressed merchandise. Too many "nuts" in their inventory of executives.
ReplyDeleteGLOG - For all gas lovers, check this one out. Kyle Bass's hedge fund owns.
ReplyDeleteNice one, maybe it can pull back to $11?
DeleteNG - Ah, there's the pop.
ReplyDeleteSAN - Up 2%, did Spain ask for bailout?
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Well, maybe I won't have that chance to add in the low $3's, either.......
ReplyDeleteTLT bubble sure looks like it has popped. will take 401k investors until the end of quarter to realize they're actually losing money in bonds. where does that money go????
ReplyDeleteSome portion of it to PM's?
Deletemaybe some into NSPH?
DeleteI vote yes!
DeleteFolks, have you seen the 1-year chart of correlation between S&P and the implied odds of Obama winning the election:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-president-inflation
Amazing! So now we know who has been twisting Bernanke's arm (or balls), forcing him to play the asset inflation...
I think the FED is rescuing the banksters from their greedy, bad bets at the expense of the savers.
DeleteI just watched an interview with CNBC's Rick Santelli (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/santellis-queasiness-about-bernankes-quantitative-easiness) where somebody mentioned a clear causal link between Romney's election and him firing Bernanke. So now we know why the market wants to see Obama re-elected -- they want Bernanke in place to keep throwing money at the market, buying bad assets from the banks!
DeleteOr, without being political, Romney is one of the poorest campaigners I've seen in a long time and campaigning is what Obama seems to do best. General public doesn't care one iota about Bernanke, but do care about who is their president.
Delete'poor' is a generous term.
Deletei'm not really into politics at all but i completely agree that romney isn't much of an option. isn't the whole occupy wall street thing and the reason there is such negative sentiment because people hate the finance guys? romney basically epitomizes that doesn't he as a former PE guy with millions in offshore accounts?
Delete