The beauty of this bull market is people are always ready to abandon it after the Dow drops 100 points one day. It (i.e., lack of conviction / pessimism) will keep it going higher for a while longer.
I heard somewhere today that the market might be a little easier to push around since its the eve of Yom Kippur.
I will most likely buys some in the retirement account if we go down some more tomorrow. This would be a hold through year end.
I was griping about the 401k again today. I told one of the lower higher up's that I wish we could at least transfer our money out of the 401 to a self directed IRA once a year. Etrade lets me trade options in my IRA. Most of the time I'm just selling cash secured puts or covered calls in that account.
The link above is a Minyanville article that talks about the DOW Theory and why some of that may not apply today.
What I also find interesting in the above article is a chart of the dollar on page 4. It seems to loose most of its value during republican presidential terms and gain during democratic terms.
lack of confirmation in transports is killing people yet they fail to realize that nat gas is killing transports. best thing that can happen to transports is higher nat gas and therefore higher demand for coal.
The chart I'm looking at of the US Dollar Index (symbol DX.X which may be specific to my charting software) shows the all time low was hit in Mar 2008 at $70.698.
I suppose I'll just buy PHM tomorrow if it trades up and gives me a Landry 102030 buy signal. Buy trigger at 17.04, stop at 15.94.
I may buy anyway before the new housing starts come out and just put a stop on it using the 14 day ATR which is around $.65. So 1.5 x .65 = $.98 stop below my buy price. I need to not over think it. I'll just buy and if the report is bad I'll take my losses.
Negativity has returned- it didn't take long! Technology (SOX) is down almost -7% in past few days. Europe/China taking another beating. May elect to reestablish a few positions today.
A Pattern May Be Holding – Today is Yom Kippur so it is one day too early to make the call. So far, however, it looks like "Sell on Rosh Hashanah; buy back on Yom Kippur" may be working. You have to wait for the solemnity of Yom Kippur to end, so the buy back would be tomorrow. We'll see!
CP, looks like you missed an entry into AUMN. Why are you trying to enter all at once? Why not buy some when the price is amazingly good (under the secondary IPO price of $5.75), and then keep adding a little as the price becomes even better?
David, It's not my doing, the price just keeps getting better the longer I wait, it seems. Yeah, I missed an entry today but who's to say it won't be even better tomorrow?
WTF, QE4-ever $40B/month still just isn't enough?!?!? ;)
CP, a break in September above the June and July highs in AUMN suggests that a new uptrend is in place. So you can't rely on its price to go lower over time -- it will now trend higher, and any pullback should be bought quickly (especially to such a clear support level as $4.80, which was the intraday low on August 30).
>> WTF, QE4-ever $40B/month still just isn't enough?!?!? ;)
I think the pullback we saw was simply due to the fact that all the capital that people were ready to commit to the markets if Ben said something good was committed, and temporarily there was no additional capital left to commit, as everyone was waiting to see what was going to happen next. This pullback sobered up people somewhat, giving them the feeling that 40B/month is not enough or that the results of this infusion might not show up for months, as was the case with QE1. So now we have re-established a classical wall of worry, and the markets will now resume their gradual climb up.
"Let me be as clear as I can be; when this current dollar rally is over, and it could last from a couple of days to a couple of weeks, the opportunity to own gold stocks MUST be taken. When the dollar forms a swing high, you will have your opportunity to buy precious metal stocks from what may be the last of the weak hands – TAKE THAT OPPORTUNITY because this is it, the beginning of the next bullish move in precious metals that will be profitable beyond your wildest dreams.
As you know, I am not prone to hyperbole here, so please take this as a very strong view on my part. Should the dollar rally to TARGET 2, there will be pain for metal holders unless we see a decoupling of the dollar, gold and stocks. Use that pain to fade the herd and get in. The coming bull market will be tough to ride so get your core in place and trade around it adding into weakness and selling into strength."
If he is right, then the 50K shares of AUMN I have acquired so far (if all my calls are assigned) should send my port to the moon. :)
just in looking at the chart, it looks plausible for the dollar to rally to the 200 DMA which is 80.71 (vs. 79.5 right now). that would put more pressure on equities. if this is the pullback everyone has been waiting for then a logical stopping point would be 1370 (old highs) which would probably coincide with a dollar move to 80.7. stochastics in AUMN look like a bottom is being formed. nice bottoming tail hammer at the 50 DMA today. i don't really follow this one that much but it looks good for a short term trade at least right here. OBV on the other hand looks awful and the MACD is pointing down. i continue to think that YRCW is one of the better setups right now but i could definitely be wrong.
Look at RSI, OBV and MACD in above chart for YRCW, which are all trending up and looking great. AUMN is showing some clear weakness with OBV but i guess the RSI and MACD look good. And the fact that it's sitting at the 50 DMA is a good thing but that big red bar on a huge reversal a few days ago looks bad. Take a look at the chart for NSPH which also had a secondary in mid July: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NSPH&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p47293299263
OBV actually spiked higher and investors digested the secondary nicely. Not the same with AUMN.
obviously nothing is perfect. i wouldn't rely solely on the charts but it does often tell a different story than management. remember when the coal super cycle was in full swing and swept all of us up in the euphoria? that was what January 2011? look at how badly coal stocks have performed since then.
that was one of the great hype stories laid on investors over the past few years. i personally made some good money off of those stocks around the time of the tsunami early last year but that experience has taught me a huge lesson about how shady companies can be. super cycle my ass.
Anyone know how good have Cara's calls on Gold been? I stopped reading him quite a while ago as he was turning into a gold perma-Bull, so this may be just another of his many gold is bottoming calls or perhaps he is getting doing better?
Yeah, thanks for news flash, LOL! ;)
ReplyDeleteThe beauty of this bull market is people are always ready to abandon it after the Dow drops 100 points one day. It (i.e., lack of conviction / pessimism) will keep it going higher for a while longer.
ReplyDeleteThat's really about it, isn't it? Same damn thing last fall.
DeleteI heard somewhere today that the market might be a little easier to push around since its the eve of Yom Kippur.
ReplyDeleteI will most likely buys some in the retirement account if we go down some more tomorrow. This would be a hold through year end.
I was griping about the 401k again today. I told one of the lower higher up's that I wish we could at least transfer our money out of the 401 to a self directed IRA once a year. Etrade lets me trade options in my IRA. Most of the time I'm just selling cash secured puts or covered calls in that account.
http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/elliott-wave-s2526p500-spx-spy-elliott/9/24/2012/id/44270?page=3
ReplyDeleteThe link above is a Minyanville article that talks about the DOW Theory and why some of that may not apply today.
What I also find interesting in the above article is a chart of the dollar on page 4. It seems to loose most of its value during republican presidential terms and gain during democratic terms.
lack of confirmation in transports is killing people yet they fail to realize that nat gas is killing transports. best thing that can happen to transports is higher nat gas and therefore higher demand for coal.
DeleteThe chart I'm looking at of the US Dollar Index (symbol DX.X which may be specific to my charting software) shows the all time low was hit in Mar 2008 at $70.698.
ReplyDeleteI suppose I'll just buy PHM tomorrow if it trades up and gives me a Landry 102030 buy signal. Buy trigger at 17.04, stop at 15.94.
ReplyDeleteI may buy anyway before the new housing starts come out and just put a stop on it using the 14 day ATR which is around $.65. So 1.5 x .65 = $.98 stop below my buy price. I need to not over think it. I'll just buy and if the report is bad I'll take my losses.
It helps to make notes here.
Platinum - Looks like tweezer top on weekly chart.
ReplyDeleteTOF, how is cheap nat gas is killing transports? Which specific companies do you have in mind when you say "transports"?
ReplyDeleteNSC is one that comes to mind. A good bit of their business comes from transporting coal, IIRC.
DeleteCP hit the nail on the head.
DeleteNegativity has returned- it didn't take long! Technology (SOX) is down almost -7% in past few days. Europe/China taking another beating. May elect to reestablish a few positions today.
ReplyDeleteBAC @ 8.85
ReplyDeleteCAF @ 18.10
FXI @ 34.02
EZU @ 30.62
DAL @ 9.02
TBT @ 16.48
In the back of my mind is EOQ window-dressing into Friday's close.
DeleteMITK/TISA bitch slap...
ReplyDeletePPHM...Too late?
ReplyDeleteTake a look at a intra-day 3M chart of WPRT...That's exactly what makes me nervous.
ReplyDeleteNervous as in the supply of NG is overestimated and perhaps WPRT won't be putting huge fleets of American vehicles on the NG highway?
DeleteNSPH - 20SMA holding so far....
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Wow, my $4.80 bid came close to filling...
ReplyDeleteOkay, lowered my bid, I'm not confident of my ability to select a bottom.
DeleteAdded some more YRCW at $6.72.
ReplyDeleteI think it's pretty safe to say any violent moves in crude oil have been really good predictors of the overall market.
ReplyDeleteCan't argue with that. However, supply seems to be the dynamic at work, as opposed to demand destruction?
DeleteWouldn't lower oil support the case for YRCW?
CSTR - This thing sure is taking it's sweet time coming to me...
ReplyDeleteIMAX - Now outside it's channel, wonder how their pending bet on China will work out?
ReplyDeleteWPRT is a mo-mo favourite and weak hands hold. Good story, but hard to know how it will really play out (like Gasfrac).
ReplyDeleteToday seems like a decent day to cover and go long..., no?
ReplyDeletein perma bull land pullbacks are always seen as opportunities!
DeleteA Pattern May Be Holding – Today is Yom Kippur so it is one day too early to make the call. So far, however, it looks like "Sell on Rosh Hashanah; buy back on Yom Kippur" may be working. You have to wait for the solemnity of Yom Kippur to end, so the buy back would be tomorrow. We'll see!
ReplyDeleteper cashin
Pass the honey cake!
DeleteNever underestimate religious belief........
CP, looks like you missed an entry into AUMN. Why are you trying to enter all at once? Why not buy some when the price is amazingly good (under the secondary IPO price of $5.75), and then keep adding a little as the price becomes even better?
ReplyDeleteDavid, It's not my doing, the price just keeps getting better the longer I wait, it seems. Yeah, I missed an entry today but who's to say it won't be even better tomorrow?
DeleteWTF, QE4-ever $40B/month still just isn't enough?!?!? ;)
CP, a break in September above the June and July highs in AUMN suggests that a new uptrend is in place. So you can't rely on its price to go lower over time -- it will now trend higher, and any pullback should be bought quickly (especially to such a clear support level as $4.80, which was the intraday low on August 30).
Delete>> WTF, QE4-ever $40B/month still just isn't enough?!?!? ;)
ReplyDeleteI think the pullback we saw was simply due to the fact that all the capital that people were ready to commit to the markets if Ben said something good was committed, and temporarily there was no additional capital left to commit, as everyone was waiting to see what was going to happen next. This pullback sobered up people somewhat, giving them the feeling that 40B/month is not enough or that the results of this infusion might not show up for months, as was the case with QE1. So now we have re-established a classical wall of worry, and the markets will now resume their gradual climb up.
Good assessment.
DeleteMITK- What a mess...and where is Bill Pay?
ReplyDeleteAdding RYEUX (Rydex Europe 1.25x) at the close.
ReplyDeleteHave you folks saw what Bill wrote this morning?
ReplyDelete"Let me be as clear as I can be; when this current dollar rally is over, and it could last from a couple of days to a couple of weeks, the opportunity to own gold stocks MUST be taken. When the dollar forms a swing high, you will have your opportunity to buy precious metal stocks from what may be the last of the weak hands – TAKE THAT OPPORTUNITY because this is it, the beginning of the next bullish move in precious metals that will be profitable beyond your wildest dreams.
As you know, I am not prone to hyperbole here, so please take this as a very strong view on my part. Should the dollar rally to TARGET 2, there will be pain for metal holders unless we see a decoupling of the dollar, gold and stocks. Use that pain to fade the herd and get in. The coming bull market will be tough to ride so get your core in place and trade around it adding into weakness and selling into strength."
If he is right, then the 50K shares of AUMN I have acquired so far (if all my calls are assigned) should send my port to the moon. :)
just in looking at the chart, it looks plausible for the dollar to rally to the 200 DMA which is 80.71 (vs. 79.5 right now). that would put more pressure on equities. if this is the pullback everyone has been waiting for then a logical stopping point would be 1370 (old highs) which would probably coincide with a dollar move to 80.7. stochastics in AUMN look like a bottom is being formed. nice bottoming tail hammer at the 50 DMA today. i don't really follow this one that much but it looks good for a short term trade at least right here. OBV on the other hand looks awful and the MACD is pointing down. i continue to think that YRCW is one of the better setups right now but i could definitely be wrong.
DeleteAUMN: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AUMN&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p06522033706
DeleteYRCW: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=YRCW&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p80890534606
Look at RSI, OBV and MACD in above chart for YRCW, which are all trending up and looking great. AUMN is showing some clear weakness with OBV but i guess the RSI and MACD look good. And the fact that it's sitting at the 50 DMA is a good thing but that big red bar on a huge reversal a few days ago looks bad. Take a look at the chart for NSPH which also had a secondary in mid July:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NSPH&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p47293299263
OBV actually spiked higher and investors digested the secondary nicely. Not the same with AUMN.
obviously nothing is perfect. i wouldn't rely solely on the charts but it does often tell a different story than management. remember when the coal super cycle was in full swing and swept all of us up in the euphoria? that was what January 2011? look at how badly coal stocks have performed since then.
Deletethat was one of the great hype stories laid on investors over the past few years. i personally made some good money off of those stocks around the time of the tsunami early last year but that experience has taught me a huge lesson about how shady companies can be. super cycle my ass.
Anyone know how good have Cara's calls on Gold been? I stopped reading him quite a while ago as he was turning into a gold perma-Bull, so this may be just another of his many gold is bottoming calls or perhaps he is getting doing better?
DeleteIt was not Bill's post. It was Geoff. Probably better.
DeleteBombardier "SeaDoo" Jet Ski sales:
ReplyDelete1996, 245,000 units sold worldwide.
2010 85,000 units sold worldwide.
They announced early this month they will no longer make boats.