Friday, September 28, 2012

9/28/12 Dead Cat

I was disappointed yesterday afternoon at the modest +1.15% gain in RYEUX, which limited the one-day gain in the portfolio to just +1.27%. However, cashing out Thursday paid off today, as jaded traders either sold or declined to buy. RYEUX closed down -2.36%! Former support levels now become resistance points, and we're likely to see better entries/reentries in October. Monday, perhaps.
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37 comments:

  1. 2nd_aveSeptember 28, 2012 at 5:48 PM

    Make no mistake. I am quite bullish over the next few months. But expecting (or hoping for) a correction prior to new highs.

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  2. 2nd_aveSeptember 28, 2012 at 5:56 PM

    Whether one agrees with QE or not, it's kind of hard to fight the 'Global Fed.'

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    1. ChickenpookieSeptember 28, 2012 at 6:57 PM

      Yep, change is in the wind.

      http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/28/us-france-budget-idUSBRE88R0AK20120928

      Delete
  3. 2nd_aveSeptember 28, 2012 at 6:04 PM

    http://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.co.uk/

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  4. ChickenpookieSeptember 29, 2012 at 8:09 AM

    $1780 - Gold just couldn't do it, although silver did it's part by closing over $34.48

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  5. AnonymousSeptember 30, 2012 at 7:27 AM

    i really like some of the beaten down stocks right now. i have a good chunk of money in YRCW because i think these beaten down stocks will outperform every other stock. take a look at the charts of MCP, BTU, X, ANR, etc. don't they look like good risk-reward setups? just in looking at those charts i'm quite bullish right now. i'm reading a lot more traders saying the qe3 fueled rally is over. i think we could very well get a sustained rally in the markets.

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    1. ChickenpookieSeptember 30, 2012 at 7:39 PM

      They just closed down another coal fired power plant this weekend in Maryland, going to redevelop the site to shopping and housing.

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieSeptember 30, 2012 at 8:36 PM

      Sorry, that closure was in Alexandria, western bank of Potomac river.

      Delete
  6. DavidSeptember 30, 2012 at 3:39 PM

    http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2012/09/20/introducing-the-reverse-volcker-moment/#axzz27zlcgPdd

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  7. DavidSeptember 30, 2012 at 10:23 PM

    Hussman on US budget deficit:

    "Here in the U.S., the federal government is running a deficit approaching 10% of GDP despite suppressed interest costs. If addressing that deficit was just a political issue of doing the “right thing,” what would that right thing be? With total federal revenues at $2.3 trillion last year, and spending at $3.7 trillion, the gap itself represents more than half of total revenues and more than a third of total spending. That gap will not be closed even if lawmakers were to agree to an immediate repeal of the Bush tax cuts in their entirety. Assuming that all of the desired revenue actually showed up, the bump to revenues would only be about $100 billion a year - reducing the deficit by less than one-tenth. In the event of a recession (which we believe is already in progress), the increase in government debt - merely as a passive cyclical response to economic weakness – would swamp that effect even if all the tax cuts were repealed. Likewise, even in the current budget, less than $1.3 trillion represents discretionary spending that is negotiated between the President and Congress. The other spending represents mandatory outlays for Social Security, Medicare, military retirement, and so forth. Well over half of discretionary spending represents military spending. To balance the budget with spending cuts, Congress would have to wipe out discretionary spending altogether, including military outlays. Observers who believe that the fiscal cliff is simply a matter of political disagreement have vastly underestimated the depth of the challenges here."

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  8. KyleOctober 1, 2012 at 6:34 AM

    Nice summary of the past month or so of ES market profile view:

    FuturesTrader71 ‏@FuturesTrader71
    How does the auction process look? http://screencast.com/t/CywNqOXZCosU #FT71 $ES_F

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  9. MarkWOctober 1, 2012 at 6:43 AM

    Man, some stocks aren't trading at all today. Kinda scary.

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    1. AnonymousOctober 1, 2012 at 7:47 AM

      not if you started buying.

      NG up 15% this year. Who would have guessed in April?

      Delete
  10. MarkWOctober 1, 2012 at 7:40 AM

    GMO- http://t.co/grDg4voz

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    1. ChickenpookieOctober 1, 2012 at 7:52 AM

      Yeah, barely moved the needle. I"m pretty confident Mt Hope goes to production but financial issues (financial contract penalties) may be holding PPS back? Even if, the value is over $1B, I think.

      I sold this one last time it fell under $4 and poked it's head back above and it hasn't seen $4 since. It was the confusion with MCP that helped take it to $7, I think.

      I really thought it held potential...

      AUMN - Okay, WTF, I guess it's wait and see where $silver is tomorrow morning and then BANG-ZOOM!

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieOctober 1, 2012 at 7:56 AM

      And, GMO's OBV is in the weeds, as if there's no accumulation:

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GMO&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p18011710308

      Delete
  11. ChickenpookieOctober 1, 2012 at 7:42 AM

    China QE? Wonder what the details are.....?!?!?

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  12. ChickenpookieOctober 1, 2012 at 8:03 AM

    UWM - I say buy this one if it falls back under $45, preferably near it's opening price.

    I was hoping though, to get it around the 200sma or lower...

    This stimulus stuff doesn't seem to stick for much longer than 24 hrs anymore, perhaps it would be best to simply short every QE pop, take the gains after 48 hrs, and wait for next QE?

    Yeah, the trend is up(sort of) but who knows when another financial bomb explodes in Europe or somewhere?

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  13. ChickenpookieOctober 1, 2012 at 8:15 AM

    NOK - This one looks like a bull flag to my inexperienced eyes... $3.50 somewhere in the cards for the next couple of months?

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  14. ChickenpookieOctober 1, 2012 at 8:35 AM

    ABX - Looking through my records, I'd bought this one Jan 24 2011 for $47.98, it's still below that price. I'm pretty sure I had a gain but it wasn't much.

    GMO - I bought this one at $6.05 and sold it for $6.48 around the same time....

    AONE - I sold this one at $5.53

    NKE - Sold this one at $78.68

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  15. ChickenpookieOctober 1, 2012 at 8:50 AM

    YRCW - LOL, sales are nearly $5B, why can't they find a way to cut costs by $500M???

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    1. AnonymousOctober 1, 2012 at 9:32 AM

      CP - that's that point, I guess. James O'Shaughnessy wrote an entire book about outperforming the market by buying stocks with very low price to sales. The rationale behind that is the excess fat can be trimmed in a business to make it a very profitable business relative to the market cap. Just take a look at stocks like PIR, SCSS, LVS, etc. when they were in the dumps.

      Delete
  16. ChickenpookieOctober 1, 2012 at 9:12 AM

    UWM - Yep, shoulda' shorted today's russell 2000 pop with both barrels....

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  17. ChickenpookieOctober 1, 2012 at 9:15 AM

    BOIL - Yeah, NG still kickin' it, who knew?

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    1. AnonymousOctober 1, 2012 at 9:32 AM

      we knew. we just didn't know how volatile it would be along the way and how little we could stomach the volatility.

      Delete
  18. ChickenpookieOctober 1, 2012 at 11:46 AM

    TC - Cash is $2.43, book is $11.21, and Gross Margin hovering well into bankruptcy territory at just 3%.......

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  19. ChickenpookieOctober 1, 2012 at 12:17 PM

    Hurray, the market is up! Well, sort of....

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  20. ChickenpookieOctober 1, 2012 at 12:34 PM

    NSPH - This thing keeps retesting $3.30, brace yourselves....

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  21. AnonymousOctober 1, 2012 at 12:44 PM

    keep in mind that AAPL is a huge part of the market and it's weakness is keeping things subdued in my opinion. i still believe AAPL has few near term catalysts...they had a huge boost from going to Verizon and that boost is gone. i wouldn't be surprised to see AAPL at $500 again...or lower. their earnings peaked possibly forever if not for a while. the chart is saying this too. this doesn't mean the market can't go higher...just that it will need to digest the fact that AAPL may have peaked.

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    1. ChickenpookieOctober 1, 2012 at 1:03 PM

      "i wouldn't be surprised to see AAPL at $500 again...or lower."

      Excellent observation, I hadn't fully realized that possibility so soon but that might actually be happening now.

      So the market might not be prepared (mentally) for AAPL downside and so it's creating confusion.

      GOOG might become part of this as well, wonder how long it takes the market to make the adjustment(s)...

      NSPH - LOL, well $3.30 held once again......

      Delete
  22. ChickenpookieOctober 1, 2012 at 12:54 PM

    PAL - WTF is with this BS????

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  23. ChickenpookieOctober 1, 2012 at 4:30 PM

    Okay, so Bernanke was talking down the market today, defending his QE decision as necessary.

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  24. 2nd_aveOctober 1, 2012 at 4:59 PM

    new post

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  25. illiniOctober 1, 2012 at 7:52 PM

    OK, I will post. Obama will win in Nov. It will not affect the markets much. Both parties are corrupt.

    Enuf said. Same-O. I am sick of politics. At 72, I will not vote. First time ever. Per Chris Hedges "Voting is useless".

    ReplyDelete

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