9/5/12 She walks like a bear but talks like a bull
The market is a freaking tranny. I can't engage on those terms. Common sense tells me it's all downhill for awhile- but common sense often gets me into trouble in the ST.
Too many reasons but a few: +Weekly chart shows a crapload of divergences and bearish stoch and macd signals +cant find anything to buy Except natty +was thinking one day selloff before jobs report +was also thinking sell the news in europe +sell the news on apple next wed for sure
If it gaps up tmrw I lose 3/4% and close which isnt much. If im right could see 15 to 25% upside over next few weeks
2nd - i honestly have little intention of holding the TZA for more than a day trade or two. i'm hoping they do actually sell off the market so i can make a little on the downside and wait for great setups on longs. i almost bought back into NOK today.
Well, you know I think the majority of traders expect the index ranges to break out to the upside. Although many of them 'talk' the bear game. So I think we break to the downside. But the level of sophistication (read deceit) in the market has risen to the point where old indicators don't work as well.
i know how foolish it is to use analogies but one possibility i can't rule out is something like 2000. we rallied into a top, pulled back hard then double topped (S&P) in the fall. i'd take that. would love to get another chance to reload stocks on the cheap...every year we seem to be getting these opportunities. one of these years it won't happen.
yesterday i got stopped out of my SSo at $57.58, probably close to the low of the day but I refuse to look.
This is why you need to review all those existing orders. I had put in a good till cancelled order to sell 10 Oct 2.50 strike NOK calls at .37. What a surprise when I just logged in to my account to them them on my alert page. I suppose that puts me in NOK around $2.17 after all the commision. If the don't get put to me that's a 15% return so that's ok.
61.8% retracement is $2.30. that was what i was targeting and the reason why i was thinking of going long at $2.36 this afternoon. probably a mistake to not at least open up a starter position in it today. i was thinking it was going to be volatile and holy shit was it. based on this reaction which while it was expected was still quite harsh, i think the odds of a sell the news event on iphone 5 is very high and i have zero intention of being long into that. i think most people that wanted an iphone upgraded to one last year when verizon started carrying it. it would really take something special to get people to pay up again for it, especially when consumers are still a bit strapped with high oil prices. i think this is a very high risk event for the market over the next week.
yeah it's a weak analogy but I guess my point is there's a decent chance we see a sell the news type event. lots of media types are pumping the release of the iphone 5 and saying this will be a big upgrade for apple. what if it is just a slight upgrade? wouldn't that induce some serious selling?
Man, I had the intention of telling TOF how happy I was he was off the UGAZ pipe for the night and now I find out instead he's bunking down with a trany. Damn.
I wonder what's up in Asia tonight? Gold/silver are going nuts... This bodes well for AUMN tomorrow. :) I have a sell limit order for 10 October $5 calls at $1.50 -- let's see if this order gets hit at the open!
Buy Europe, buy pricing, buy ABB ô€‚„ European transmission and distribution is a game-changer… To reflect better pricing and demand, we raise our 2013-14 EPS estimates for ABB by 5% and upgrade our rating to Buy with a CHF 20.5 price target. We have studied in detail the grid operators’ 10-year development plan for the European grid. Our analysis indicates that investment in the European grid could increase by more than 50% between 2012 and 2015 and remain on a high level for an extended period. ô€‚„ …and pricing is likely to improve… In addition, we believe there is scope for industry pricing to improve in the coming quarters. Hyundai has stated that chasing volume is not sustainable, and we believe that Crompton management is thinking along the same lines. Siemens has publicly made clear it is walking away from contracts not deemed profitable enough. ô€‚„ …which should trigger a re-rating of the shares After years of continuous de-rating of the shares, we think that improved demand in Europe and improved pricing behaviour are important enough catalysts to trigger both consensus upgrades and a re-rating of the shares towards a mid-cycle valuation of CHF 20.5. This is c25% above the current share price. ô€‚„ Valuation: Raising PT to CHF 20.5 from CHF 16.0 We value ABB using a mix of PE, EV/EBIT multiples and UBS VCAM DCF. At our price target, ABB would trade on 13x mid-cycle EPS, 9.6x mid-cycle EBIT, and would be pricing in an implicit ROIC of 17% and ROE of 20%.
2nd - you spoke too soon about TZA man. they did a moonshot in the indices. i'm going to hold on to the inverse for the day to see how it trades.
keep an eye on the action in AMZN. if they also have a sell the news event after the 10am press conference that makes it the 2nd company in the smart devices category that had a sell the news trade. i believe if that happens then AAPL can have the same reaction on 9/12 and the market will get smacked by this.
They may be wanting this (other than Germany) - some inflation would put the deflation issue to bed once and for all and could help a lot of the debt issues be reduced.
NSPH- OK, taking into consideration where the overall market is and looking further at the chart, I saw we get another shot in the 2.87 area. I'll wait there of forget it.
Damn...did I really go all in TZA yesterday at the close? how didn't i see the potential breakout of the wedge just like just about every other commodity before it? ah...oh well. will close it at a 4% or so hit.
well having gotten my ass handed to my trying to short the market, i have little interest in shorting it again. having said that, i'm still for some stupid reason holding on to my TZA...thinking it might reverse which is plain stupid.
Saut's audio commentary at http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm saying that he still think we hit S&P 1450 - 1477 in the next week, followed by a pullback.
Also, the last 4 times we had as tight a trading range as we had the last few weeks, all went up between 2% and 5%, the higher of this getting to his target range.
I personally think a day like this is one that makes the regular news and gets the non-traders interested in the market, so we may see some more follow thru here.
Could be. It doesn't feel healthy, but we are coming out of a long base.
You also have a lot of hedge funds which are way behind the S&P, so they could be throwing in the towel and panic buying and keeping future pullbacks small.
i know you're a value guy...i'd recommend replaying the whole fast money halftime show today. i specifically listened to it because Cooperman was on. i don't usually listen to that channel anymore. cooperman is a good value manager.
I'll try and watch later - all they have now is the 1 minute from Cooperman online so far. He could very well be right that the S&P 500 stocks are fairly valued, but I still think there are lots of good values in individual stocks. I've never done well trying to sell a stock and buy back later at a cheaper price, so I'll stick with most of the ones I have. I've got a few that are getting expensive CNI (CN Rail) for example, but want to own long term and might now get back in if I got out now.
the only reason i'm sticking with TZA at this point is I think there is still a decent chance we reverse todays gains within the next week. pulling back some into the close would help with holding it overnight in the face of the jobs report tomorrow.
Doug Kass pressing his bets....yikes we all know how uncomfortable that is. and the worst part for him is that he has to write about it and probably feels obligated to stick to his calls:
I am disappointed, folks. I thought I would wake up to see silver above $33 and AUMN at $7+, and instead AUMN is having just a puny advance...
At least PNPFF is responding well to the news, and I have accumulated a bunch of shares over the summer at the average cost of $0.86 (did anyone follow me into it?)
The first thing I never could come to grips with concerning miners was every single move was always retraced. The second thing was why they had 25 P/E's.
$34.48 is the magic figure for silver, sure is taking it's sweet-ass time getting there.
Kass is a smart guy and pretty open with his positions for a guy who runs a hedge fund, but often tries to pick the turns in markets way too early. The thing I don't like about him is he won't say how he tried to short it 3 times and got it right the 4th time, but will just say he got the short right.
Tried googling around a bunch of different ways a couple of times to see if i could find the results of his Seabreeze funds, but not a trace. Probably he mails them out, but, even still, these things have a way of getting on the net.
they're selling the news at AMZN. still remains to be seen if it is just a dip but if they close it at the lows of the day then I think it's a bad sign for AAPL next week.
Everyone seems to be watching the S&P 500 for a breakout above early 2008 levels, but interestingly, the RSP (S&P 500 equal weighted) is less than 1% from it's 2007 highs.
Ill admit it. I went all in tza at close and ah. Paa me a scotch...i have a prob with ultras
ReplyDeletePass that is...ill hav anova (insert slurred speech)
DeletePassed out> I believe that's how jesse survived 2-3 nights in Asia (successfully) holding a 3x position in UNG.
DeleteWhat led to your decision to open an all-in position in TZA?
ReplyDeleteIt stands a pretty good chance of paying off. But I doubt you'll sleep well.
DeleteRebounding off the UGAZ break-up?
DeleteToo many reasons but a few:
Delete+Weekly chart shows a crapload of divergences and bearish stoch and macd signals
+cant find anything to buy Except natty
+was thinking one day selloff before jobs report
+was also thinking sell the news in europe
+sell the news on apple next wed for sure
If it gaps up tmrw I lose 3/4% and close which isnt much. If im right could see 15 to 25% upside over next few weeks
Fair enough. I'm holding TZA's good girl cousin HDGE. Not even holding hands, really. Certainly no plans to go all the way.
Deleteha. i can't escape the ultras. although i have a feeling i made a mistake selling ugaz.
DeleteWe've had a pretty good run since 2009. Noone foresaw SPX 1400 within 3 years. Now that we're at 1407, it feels kind of 'off' to expect 1500+.
ReplyDeleteEspecially with China back to 2009 levels.
Delete2nd - i honestly have little intention of holding the TZA for more than a day trade or two. i'm hoping they do actually sell off the market so i can make a little on the downside and wait for great setups on longs. i almost bought back into NOK today.
Deletethat is, i still think it's unwise to go short the market, which is why i went short the market.
Deleteagain, i'm here if you wanna pass me a beer.
Deleteor a single malt
DeleteYou can have the remaining 400 mL of my Nadurra bottle.
Deletethat works. i expect to be hungover and stopped out come morning.
DeleteWell, you know I think the majority of traders expect the index ranges to break out to the upside. Although many of them 'talk' the bear game. So I think we break to the downside. But the level of sophistication (read deceit) in the market has risen to the point where old indicators don't work as well.
Deletei know how foolish it is to use analogies but one possibility i can't rule out is something like 2000. we rallied into a top, pulled back hard then double topped (S&P) in the fall. i'd take that. would love to get another chance to reload stocks on the cheap...every year we seem to be getting these opportunities. one of these years it won't happen.
Deleteyesterday i got stopped out of my SSo at $57.58, probably close to the low of the day but I refuse to look.
ReplyDeleteThis is why you need to review all those existing orders. I had put in a good till cancelled order to sell 10 Oct 2.50 strike NOK calls at .37. What a surprise when I just logged in to my account to them them on my alert page. I suppose that puts me in NOK around $2.17 after all the commision. If the don't get put to me that's a 15% return so that's ok.
i think i based that put order on one of tof's NOK analysis postings last week or the week before.
Delete61.8% retracement is $2.30. that was what i was targeting and the reason why i was thinking of going long at $2.36 this afternoon. probably a mistake to not at least open up a starter position in it today. i was thinking it was going to be volatile and holy shit was it. based on this reaction which while it was expected was still quite harsh, i think the odds of a sell the news event on iphone 5 is very high and i have zero intention of being long into that. i think most people that wanted an iphone upgraded to one last year when verizon started carrying it. it would really take something special to get people to pay up again for it, especially when consumers are still a bit strapped with high oil prices. i think this is a very high risk event for the market over the next week.
Deleteyikes, I sold PUTS not calls.
DeleteICHKX closed today -6.7% below my August 8 exit price. That sums up the outlook in Asia right now.
ReplyDeletelooks like ill get stopped out tmrw judging from early action
ReplyDelete"AAPL might see the same result on 9/12/12. Anyone else think this?"
ReplyDeleteNo, I think of NOK more along the same lines as RIMM, their market share seems to be shrinking?
Best I can recall from a short bit caught recently was it's come down to two: DROID and AAPL
yeah it's a weak analogy but I guess my point is there's a decent chance we see a sell the news type event. lots of media types are pumping the release of the iphone 5 and saying this will be a big upgrade for apple. what if it is just a slight upgrade? wouldn't that induce some serious selling?
DeleteMan, I had the intention of telling TOF how happy I was he was off the UGAZ pipe for the night and now I find out instead he's bunking down with a trany. Damn.
ReplyDeleteNXPI: Mark I leave fundy's for others, I like the chart.
ReplyDelete$1700 - There ya go!
ReplyDeleteI wonder what's up in Asia tonight? Gold/silver are going nuts... This bodes well for AUMN tomorrow. :) I have a sell limit order for 10 October $5 calls at $1.50 -- let's see if this order gets hit at the open!
ReplyDeleteSilver is already trading at $33 in Hong Kong -- looks like somebody is losing patience...
Deletei think i'll sell the rest of my SLV today.
ReplyDeleteBuy Europe, buy pricing, buy ABB
ReplyDeleteô€‚„ European transmission and distribution is a game-changer… To reflect better pricing and demand, we raise our 2013-14 EPS estimates for ABB
by 5% and upgrade our rating to Buy with a CHF 20.5 price target. We have studied in detail the grid operators’ 10-year development plan for the
European grid. Our analysis indicates that investment in the European grid could increase by more than 50% between 2012 and 2015 and remain on a
high level for an extended period.
ô€‚„ …and pricing is likely to improve… In addition, we believe there is scope for industry pricing to improve in the coming quarters. Hyundai has stated
that chasing volume is not sustainable, and we believe that Crompton management is thinking along the same lines. Siemens has publicly made clear
it is walking away from contracts not deemed profitable enough.
ô€‚„ …which should trigger a re-rating of the shares After years of continuous de-rating of the shares, we think that improved demand in Europe and
improved pricing behaviour are important enough catalysts to trigger both consensus upgrades and a re-rating of the shares towards a mid-cycle
valuation of CHF 20.5. This is c25% above the current share price.
􀂄 Valuation: Raising PT to CHF 20.5 from CHF 16.0 We value ABB using a mix of PE, EV/EBIT multiples and UBS VCAM DCF. At our price target,
ABB would trade on 13x mid-cycle EPS, 9.6x mid-cycle EBIT, and would be pricing in an implicit ROIC of 17% and ROE of 20%.
the ultimate one two punch: sold UGAZ and its higher, bought TZA and its lower. Ahh such is life in ultra land.
ReplyDeleteNot so fast, bro.
DeleteUGAZ is now trading lower, and TZA hovering around Wednesday's lows.
Delete2nd - you spoke too soon about TZA man. they did a moonshot in the indices. i'm going to hold on to the inverse for the day to see how it trades.
Deletekeep an eye on the action in AMZN. if they also have a sell the news event after the 10am press conference that makes it the 2nd company in the smart devices category that had a sell the news trade. i believe if that happens then AAPL can have the same reaction on 9/12 and the market will get smacked by this.
OCZ?
ReplyDeletei'm shocked FIO has been holding strong...
DeleteMe too.
DeleteNSPH- It will be interesting to watch the 3.16 area.
ReplyDeletewhat's up with that level?
DeleteToo me it's a pretty clear previous resistance level now acting as support. Both on the day high/low and closes.
Deletemarket is ignoring spike in crude, dropping euro, rising dollar. hmmm
ReplyDeleteFDX doing well after warning yesterday.
ReplyDeleteSPX- Closing in on a new high.
ReplyDeleteman we're gonna get some nasty inflation at this rate. central bankers stepping on gas pedal at time when us economy is strengthening.
ReplyDeleteThey may be wanting this (other than Germany) - some inflation would put the deflation issue to bed once and for all and could help a lot of the debt issues be reduced.
Deleteyeah it just strikes me as odd that the us central bank would keep the pedal to the metal in light of good econ reports.
Deletenat gas nice turnaround. it's gonna spike on the report.
ReplyDeleteHDGE closed @ 21.20
ReplyDeletesmart move.
DeleteGold pretty quiet this morning - doesn't seem to be a lot of fear about this morning's actions.
ReplyDeletePlus, jobs still moving in the right direction.
NSPH- OK, taking into consideration where the overall market is and looking further at the chart, I saw we get another shot in the 2.87 area. I'll wait there of forget it.
ReplyDelete$2.9 was coming up when i was looking at it yesterday. can't remember what i was looking at.
DeleteDamn...did I really go all in TZA yesterday at the close? how didn't i see the potential breakout of the wedge just like just about every other commodity before it? ah...oh well. will close it at a 4% or so hit.
ReplyDeleteTough one, but good discipline on the sell.
DeleteGuess this is another nail in the playing the markets strategy.
1423 - How nice!
ReplyDelete1440 - Are we still planning to place short positions at ~1440, assuming we make it there?
ReplyDeletewell having gotten my ass handed to my trying to short the market, i have little interest in shorting it again. having said that, i'm still for some stupid reason holding on to my TZA...thinking it might reverse which is plain stupid.
DeleteYeah, I don't understand why we're up today. Must be Europe.
DeleteKOL is up nicely...
NG - Well, this one's not up any longer, guess there's still too much inventory.
ReplyDeleteIn line report.
DeleteHEK - The beach ball's up another 5%.....
ReplyDeleteOpened EZU @ 30.07, FXI @ 32.68...
ReplyDeleteFXI looks awesome.
Deletei think it's safe to say this market goes higher. everyone looking for a pullback was dead wrong.
ReplyDeleteNG - A buy here IMO, as long as UNG stays above $18.82
ReplyDeleteGet in now!
TZA is tempting me, the gap down from $15.75 needs to close.
ReplyDeleteSaut's audio commentary at http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
ReplyDeletesaying that he still think we hit S&P 1450 - 1477 in the next week, followed by a pullback.
Also, the last 4 times we had as tight a trading range as we had the last few weeks, all went up between 2% and 5%, the higher of this getting to his target range.
I personally think a day like this is one that makes the regular news and gets the non-traders interested in the market, so we may see some more follow thru here.
No offense but each time I hear something similar, it usually proves a great shorting opportunity.
Delete$USD has fallen back down to low 81's, this could last at least until December when Congress must rule on the fiscal cliff?
ReplyDeleteSeems like market is currently predicting the fiscal cliff won't happen, and the spending will continue.
Could also just be Euro rebounding after getting beaten down too far on fears of the Euro-collapse which now seems less likely today.
DeleteGood interview on Fast Money with Leon Cooperman.
ReplyDeleteGotta say today just feels like euphoria.
ReplyDeleteCould be. It doesn't feel healthy, but we are coming out of a long base.
DeleteYou also have a lot of hedge funds which are way behind the S&P, so they could be throwing in the towel and panic buying and keeping future pullbacks small.
i know you're a value guy...i'd recommend replaying the whole fast money halftime show today. i specifically listened to it because Cooperman was on. i don't usually listen to that channel anymore. cooperman is a good value manager.
DeleteI'll try and watch later - all they have now is the 1 minute from Cooperman online so far. He could very well be right that the S&P 500 stocks are fairly valued, but I still think there are lots of good values in individual stocks. I've never done well trying to sell a stock and buy back later at a cheaper price, so I'll stick with most of the ones I have. I've got a few that are getting expensive CNI (CN Rail) for example, but want to own long term and might now get back in if I got out now.
Deleteyeah that's what he was talking about. he goes through his value judgement in determining what stocks to buy. good interview.
DeleteSold NXPI, chart still great. See if we get a small pulldown, kinda of doubt it.
ReplyDeleteCopperman's always a pleasure to listen to, probably more integrity than 99% on wall street.
the only reason i'm sticking with TZA at this point is I think there is still a decent chance we reverse todays gains within the next week. pulling back some into the close would help with holding it overnight in the face of the jobs report tomorrow.
ReplyDeletesilver and gold...pulling back fairly hard.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I see that. Maybe the fun's almost done?
DeleteI need a strategy......
i think the gap up fills within a week or two.
DeleteIWM
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p34236101881
check out the move outside the bollinger bands today. over the past year any move this high out of the bands reversed pretty hard shortly afterward.
same with SPY
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p82768775971
Doug Kass pressing his bets....yikes we all know how uncomfortable that is. and the worst part for him is that he has to write about it and probably feels obligated to stick to his calls:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestreet.com/story/11688017/1/kass-super-mario-buffers.html
and apparently he is going on Fast Money tonight to discuss how he will be right.
Deletehttps://twitter.com/dougkass
One more thrust up the wazoo please, so I can buy some TZA!
ReplyDeletewhy do you have to root against me?!
DeleteCalling all chasers, please one more buying spree!
ReplyDeleteOkay, maybe this afternoon?
DeleteI am disappointed, folks. I thought I would wake up to see silver above $33 and AUMN at $7+, and instead AUMN is having just a puny advance...
ReplyDeleteAt least PNPFF is responding well to the news, and I have accumulated a bunch of shares over the summer at the average cost of $0.86 (did anyone follow me into it?)
could be a case of sell the news David.
DeleteThe first thing I never could come to grips with concerning miners was every single move was always retraced. The second thing was why they had 25 P/E's.
Delete$34.48 is the magic figure for silver, sure is taking it's sweet-ass time getting there.
Kass is a smart guy and pretty open with his positions for a guy who runs a hedge fund, but often tries to pick the turns in markets way too early. The thing I don't like about him is he won't say how he tried to short it 3 times and got it right the 4th time, but will just say he got the short right.
ReplyDeleteyeah i'm pretty sure his returns are horrible.
DeleteTried googling around a bunch of different ways a couple of times to see if i could find the results of his Seabreeze funds, but not a trace. Probably he mails them out, but, even still, these things have a way of getting on the net.
DeleteMakes you wonder...
he probably only manages his and his family's money.
DeleteWonder how those employment figures are looking?
ReplyDeletethey're selling the news at AMZN. still remains to be seen if it is just a dip but if they close it at the lows of the day then I think it's a bad sign for AAPL next week.
ReplyDeletenice rebound...looks like no sell on news there.
DeleteEveryone seems to be watching the S&P 500 for a breakout above early 2008 levels, but interestingly, the RSP (S&P 500 equal weighted) is less than 1% from it's 2007 highs.
ReplyDeleteha:
ReplyDelete"AMZN just introduced their new money losing products"
The market should be eating that up!
DeleteJust wait till Congress rules in favor of states sales tax on internet commerce...
man i'm glad i'm out of UGAZ even if i missed out on more gains and f*cked up going into TZA. that is one bipolar etf.
ReplyDeleteNo sh*t, it's like watching a totally wasted drunk driver cruising down the freeway at 03:00 in the morning.
DeleteHa, WTIC is drunk today as well!
DeleteSome kinda recovery we have going, where prices fluctuate between 10yr historical extremes within days or weeks.
SRS - New low
ReplyDeleteHEK - Another 9% today on this one......
ReplyDeleteScrew Kass. Added to EZU/FXI. Plan to open VEURX/ reopen ICHKX at the close. Will be 90% long at/after the close.
ReplyDeleteCome on 1440!!!!
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete