Wednesday, October 10, 2012
10/10/12 Crowds don't move in straight lines
The extended hours action is encouraging. Modestly lower prices after the close entice ST traders to second-guess themselves. Headlines playing right now (S&P cuts Spain to BBB-, The case for a 40% drop) further ---- with their heads. It should lead to bullish stragglers throwing in the towel. Then we rally overnight on the same bullish bullshit that usually follows the bearish bullshit. Look for the crowded trade, then run the other way.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Picked up a little AA after hours around 8.70
ReplyDeleteThe fleeting thought that the 'October correction' may have come and gone in the first eight trading days of the month crossed my mind.
ReplyDeleteJust sayin'...
Wouldn't that be a -----. The last bus leaving for the year-end rally arrives empty/full of seats, and no one's interested?
DeleteKind of reminds me of the mid-January drop.
DeleteCrowds tend to stampede, especially when shots are fired. ;)
ReplyDeletei really didn't understand TBT being up the first part of the day. I've been wanting to pick up more shares so I did a buy write using the oct 65 strike calls, i'm in at 63.59 which sadly is above the current price. I suspect we may get our relief rally and it will take TBT up with it. I don't understand the call yet for higher rates when buddy ben has made it painfully clear that rates will stay low through 2015. If my TBT doesn't get called away then I'll be selling calls against them each month.
ReplyDeleteI still have my SDS shares. I came sooo close to selling them this morning. I wasn't around at the close today or I would have sold them then. Hopefully I'll get a chance to sell them in the morn before the rally.
ReplyDeleteMarkman talks about Oct 10 being some sort of historical pivot date. We'll see.
Also bought some ACI today at 6.90. I done buying coal.
ReplyDeleteThe next stock I want to buy is RNF, I'm long 1/2 position at $38.80 and I'll buy the rest around $30 if it drops that low. I guys do your own analysis, I'm relying one of my beer drinking buddies analysis so we'll see how this plays out.
My risk management on both of the positions above is my position size. If one or both of these companies go under it won't kill the portfolio, it won't feel good but it won't kill it.
After reading jesse's email I'm thinking about FXI. It has traded to the upper 35.xx range but it hasn't been above 36 since May 7th. I'm thinking it's a buy on a breakout above 36 now.
ReplyDeleteThink Or Swim shows the implied volatility for the Jan 35 call is 22%. I may use the Jan options for a trade if FXI breaks out.
I actually recommended to friends to go long double the FXI (via XPP I think if memory serves me right) 2 or 3 weeks ago. One of them bought. I told him to expect a 100% move up over the next 12 months in the ultra ETF.
DeleteAAPL - Is this one going to take the NASDAQ down with it? Brandt lays out a case where AAPL might head to $430.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-10-09/moodys-targets-calif-dot-cities-for-downgrades
ReplyDeleteXPP - Up 4% pre-market.
ReplyDeleteWhat an amazing day for Bay Area baseball fans yesterday.
ReplyDeletetwitter
ReplyDelete$AUMN: Golden Minerals reports production increases of 28% for silver and 27% for gold as compared to Q2 (4.48)
Co provides production results from the Velardena Operations for the quarter ending September 30, 2012. Payable production for the third quarter was ~120,000 ounces of silver and 1,900 ounces of gold, 28% higher for silver and 27% for gold, as compared to the second quarter, and 18% and 19% higher for silver and gold, respectively, as compared to the average quarterly payable production for the first half of 2012. For the first three quarters payable production was ~325,000 ounces of silver and 5,100 ounces of gold. Additionally, Velardena produced ~290,000 pounds of payable lead and 320,000 pounds of payable zinc in the third quarter and 700,000 pounds of lead and 930,000 pounds of zinc for the the first three quarters of 2012.
ABB sold, hat tip 2nd, seemed to have stalled here.
ReplyDeleteJesses's coal call has the coal's red hot, time for the steaks.
coals and steel continue to kill it.
ReplyDeletei still think GOOG at least doubles from here. the company is the best company in the world with the widest moat.
ReplyDeleteHa, good point.
DeleteYou were beating the drumm on that one 3 or 4 months ago. Most all the big boys have this one on their books.
DeleteAnyone need a little glue on GLUU?
Tough crowd out there today, as usual.
ReplyDeleteINTC - Another new low!?!?
My book
ReplyDeleteMGIC
NOG
MATX
NEM
Been thinking about adding to my MGIC position. Strongly growing software company at P/E of 10, PEG of .77, dividend yield of 9% (highest in the industry), good track record of rewarding shareholders and in a good marketspace within the industry - hard to see it doesn't double from here.
DeleteRecommendation Summary
DeleteFrom Ford equity research
Ford's Buy on Magic Software Enterprises Ltd. is the result of our systematic analysis on three basic characteristics: earnings strength, relative valuation, and
recent stock price movement. The company has generated a negative trend in earnings per share over the past 5 quarters. Because the company lacks sufficient
analyst estimate data, we place greater weight on the historical EPS trend as the measure of earnings strength. Based on operating earnings yield, the company is
undervalued when compared to all of the companies we cover. Share price changes over the past year indicates that MGIC will perform well over the near term.
They only dis them on this:
Ford's earnings momentum measures the acceleration or deceleration in trailing 12 month
operating earnings per share growth. The downward curvature of the plotted points in the graph
on the right indicates that while Magic Software Enterprises Ltd.'s earnings have increased from
$0.36 to an estimated $0.46 over the past 5 quarters, they have shown deceleration in quarterly
growth rates when adjusted for the volatility of earnings. This is an indication of weakness that
could lead to declining earnings.
Opened LINE @ 40.23
ReplyDeleteSLB long @72.65, been waiting to go long this one for awhile.
ReplyDeleteTechnically breaking above 50 dma daily and 150 wma weekly sto's turning up on both time periods and has corrected down from around 78.47.
DeleteOf course if the mkt sells off 30 handles the above means nothing.
JOY - Complete change in sentiment, apparently.
ReplyDeleteAGO - I'm quite pleased with this one so far.
ReplyDeleteThx BB!
If only they all went so well...
DeleteRJA and JJG weeklies interesting.
ReplyDeleteLINE closed @ 40.51
ReplyDeleteReopened LINE @ 40.26
ReplyDeleteOffed LINE @ 40.18. WTF.
DeleteOffed AA @ 8.85.
btw, both of the above trades were made in the blink of an eye earlier in the day (obviously). I still don't 'get' the price action in LINE- not usually a high beta stock.
DeleteNice move in coals today. I see ANR had a little pullback 15 minutes ago, so I decided to use the bottom of that pullback as my "line in the sand" for taking profits, so I placed a sell limit at $8.20 for the 1K shares I picked up a couple of days ago at $7.14. In anticipation of that order getting hit soon, I already purchased 10 more AUMN April $2.50 calls at $2.25.
ReplyDeleteI still have my January 2014 $15 calls on BTU that I picked up a few months ago when BTU was at $22, so if I get stopped out of my ANR trade, I will still be able to benefit if coals do a moonshot...
ReplyDeleteAs expected, my sell stop order for ANR was hit at $8.20. Well, I made $1K on that trade in a couple of days (thanks, Jesse!), and now I can recycle that money into AUMN calls. :) Since I already bought some calls today, I'll wait until AUMN drops to $4 before buying more calls.
ReplyDeleteNSPH- Sure looks like big players handing off the retail.
ReplyDeleteYep, sure does. Can't help but think it may have already peaked for a good while.
DeleteAs expected, ANR staged a huge rebound after shaking off weak hands like mine. Well, at least my BTU calls are doing well. :)
ReplyDeleteAnd AUMN is going the other way -- the lateral move I made from ANR into AUMN calls looks pretty bad so far...
DeletePlacing a buy limit order for 10 more April $2.50 calls at $2.00.
DeletePort is having one heck of a day.
ReplyDeleteIt's going to be an interesting period if AAPL actually does go into a major correction. if I look at the markets since the top on Sept. 19th, the SPY is down 2.3% and the QQQ is down 5.2%. Given that AAPL is 20% of the QQQ and 5% of the SPY and it is down 10.5% in the same period, about 40% of the decline in the QQQ and 23% of the decline in SPY is directly attributable to AAPL. Take AAPL suppliers into account and the decline is likely higher.
ReplyDeleteyeah i think i mentioned this a week or two ago but it should take the market time to digest the possibility that AAPL pulls back a good deal. i still think they peaked earnings after the verizon launch (i.e., after they ended their exclusive contract with AT&T for the iPhone). this will be an issue for the stock for a while longer.
DeleteGIANTS WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeletewas listening to a broadcast on mlb.com...it was an awful broadcast...announcer was completely unemotional after the win. i thought maybe he was the Cincy announcer but it said it was a SF broadcast. is the SF announcer really bad?
DeleteNo way. The local guys are really good. What a pressure packed game. Tying run to the plate 4 straight innings. Wow.
DeleteYes, SD is a 'leveraged' natty play. They are, like everyone else, trying to get more oily.
Been looking at nat gas related plays since coal was so obvious...doesn't SD have a big hand in nat gas? Stock looks good here.
ReplyDeleteSHW looks like a big time short. Check out the huge topping tail on the monthly chart. 13 straight green monthly bars. Only 12 red weekly bars out of the past 55 weeks. RSI14 on weekly chart about to turn below 70 for first time in 2012. MACD and Stochastics are on the verge of giving a sell signal. massive insider selling recently.
ReplyDeleteyou can either short it or buy puts...the March 120 Puts at $2 look interesting. I think a drop to $100 by then is highly likely.