Not yet, obviously. But he will. He's a smart guy, and he won't be wrong for much longer. How does this fit in with being bullish over the next few months? It either doesn't fit, or we spike down hard and bounce.
Grab it in low 5's while you can. Despite a strong post-FOMC rally in $USD, silver and gold have gone sideways, not down. Once the $USD rally is over (and we may have seen the top yesterday, since today $USD dropped below yesterday's low: http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=h1), silver and gold will have the next leg up, and all miners will follow.
"The Fed’s large-scale asset purchases will probably lift stocks by 3 percent over the two years following the Sept. 13 announcement of QE3 as low yields on government bonds push investors into risker assets, according to a Sept. 27 report by Deutsche Bank economists."
GGN - This one might retest the 50SMA ($14), the yield there is about the same as NLY? I'm not sure it's not just returning of shareholder money though, how does GGN produce income?
NLY produces income by taking advantage of interest rate spreads.
Since the lows on Friday and the highs on Monday, silver has made a horizontal flag, which converged to a point at the close today. Tomorrow we will have a breakout.
The recent pullback in YRCW could be over…there has been some good support around $6.6. Having seen just about everything rally that you would classify as risky, I would have to imagine that when this thing gets going it could rally for a month or two straight without really pulling back much. 200 to 300% rally over that time is possible. The tough part as always will be holding on for the ride.
Judging by how AUMN is trading today (it went deep into the red at some point, while GDXJ gapped up and never looked back), it looks like it is in the stage of being totally despised and unloved. Could a secondary share offering really create such a mistrust toward AUMN? I would understand if it couldn't get up much higher above $5.75 for a while, but why is it stuck below $5???
One trader on seekingalpha mentioned that he sees large blocks of shares for sale periodically, and given AUMN's very low volume, even a single larger trader can affect the stock for several days while exiting his position...
here's another one that sure as hell looks like a longer term winner: TLYS. i only know about it because my wife shops there and i just found out they went public not too long ago.
I don't make excuses for flipping views on market direction on a dime- I just post them.
ReplyDeleteWatching the DJIA spike +150 points this morning, all I could come up with was a silent question to the bidders. 'You're buying now?'
ReplyDeleteYes, I think the China QE news was being bought, that is until Bernanke started defending, or perhaps better said, restating, his reasons for QE.
DeleteI wonder what was up with the volume in ANR today.
ReplyDeleteI wonder why Obama adds are always on my email page? Everywhere else it's stuff that I've searched.
ReplyDeleteOINK - This one is flying now, reports are there's a world wide shortage of bacon and pork.
ReplyDeleteLooks like car sales disappoint.
ReplyDeleteMaybe we can get F at much better prices!
DeleteTTM - Do you think this one can continue revving it's motor?
NG - Seems like a good place to short this one.
ReplyDeletegonna catch a KOLD?
DeleteCertainly a Koff, maybe a KOLD! ;) Wanna see how it acts tomorrow.
DeleteUWM - Was gonna buy this one @ $44.50 or lower, but chickened out...
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Is this thing a $5 beach ball?
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Tweezers bottom on the nano-sphincter @ $3.26?
ReplyDeleteLookin' like a hammer on the daily.
DeleteThis market drives me crazy, I never was a fan of human interaction and didn't play well with the other kids.
ReplyDeleteUnderstand completely -- Probably why we 'connect' somewhat ... :-)
DeleteCSCO vs JNPR - I caught some of his show last week, Cramer made a point of saying CSCO's success will come at JNPR's expense.
ReplyDelete"AUMN - Is this thing a $5 beach ball?"
ReplyDeleteGrab it in low 5's while you can. Despite a strong post-FOMC rally in $USD, silver and gold have gone sideways, not down. Once the $USD rally is over (and we may have seen the top yesterday, since today $USD dropped below yesterday's low: http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=h1), silver and gold will have the next leg up, and all miners will follow.
If by chance the computers drop its price to the previous low of $4.80, then buy even more shares at an even better price!
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-02/bernanke-seeks-gains-for-stocks-in-push-for-jobs-economy.html
ReplyDelete"The Fed’s large-scale asset purchases will probably lift stocks by 3 percent over the two years following the Sept. 13 announcement of QE3 as low yields on government bonds push investors into risker assets, according to a Sept. 27 report by Deutsche Bank economists."
3 percent over two years??? That's laughable...
NLY under $17 will yield 12%......
DeleteGGN - This one might retest the 50SMA ($14), the yield there is about the same as NLY? I'm not sure it's not just returning of shareholder money though, how does GGN produce income?
DeleteNLY produces income by taking advantage of interest rate spreads.
NM is selling off, will be looking to reload soon.
ReplyDeleteMATZ, sort of a spin off from ALEX picked up some at 20.70.
WPRT is looking good on weekly.
Mkt overall feels like it wants to correct and its the right month.
DeleteWill liqudity trump all as it has so far?
"Will liqudity trump all?"
DeleteProbably, right after SPX retests 1420?
Seems the market slumped while Bernanke was flapping his lips yesterday concerning how weak he believes the economy is and we need QE4-ever, no?
DeleteSince the lows on Friday and the highs on Monday, silver has made a horizontal flag, which converged to a point at the close today. Tomorrow we will have a breakout.
ReplyDeleteNATI - Where will this one be in two weeks?
DeleteThis is something we need to pay attention too...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.collaborativeconsumption.com/the-movement/
Ha, ha, I'm not vacation-swapping my home with a family from NYC, they'll trash the place!
DeleteMan, another snoozer....Other than Jeffries cutting some energy names, not much out there.
ReplyDeleteFIO strong. my old boss told me he's up $800k on that. wow. he went all in at $21.
DeleteFIO - SICK! ;)
DeleteAUMN @ 4.95
ReplyDeleteOff @ 4.98
DeleteCSTR - Well, this one's not going to my $38 target???
ReplyDeleteadded a little more YRCW at $6.69-$6.74.
ReplyDeleteGold - A close better than $1780 would be a positive development.
ReplyDeleteMEOH - Trying to break out of the pennant, experiencing difficulty.
ReplyDeleteThe recent pullback in YRCW could be over…there has been some good support around $6.6. Having seen just about everything rally that you would classify as risky, I would have to imagine that when this thing gets going it could rally for a month or two straight without really pulling back much. 200 to 300% rally over that time is possible. The tough part as always will be holding on for the ride.
ReplyDeleteIt does look good...
DeleteWonder how unemployment's gonna look?
ReplyDeleteSpain - Ah, so Spain will delay request for financial assistance...
ReplyDeleteKOLD - Bid @ $19.5, see if NG goes for a DT...
ReplyDeleteCancel this trade probably, $WTIC might fall under $80 and NG should go up if this happens.
DeleteYRCW likes low fuel prices, huh?
NATI - Biding @ $24.61
ReplyDeleteFirst debate tonight and oil crashes...
ReplyDeleteSome say supply issues have abated. I'll gladly buy oil in the 70's if that's where it goes.
DeleteTransportations doing well today. X right at the support line from the lows of late July through early Sept.
ReplyDeleteX was looking at today also
ReplyDeleteNM same condition but from May
The negative is that both are below the 50dma. Therefore would prefer to wait for stabalization before jumping, individual thing.
DeleteGood job Meg. Just be careful not to through yourself under the bus as well.
ReplyDeleteI don't like Meg, and never have. No charisma, no vision, no excitement.
DeletePAL - Well okay, maybe PAL will fall to just under $1, stranger things have happened....
ReplyDeleteOpened a single put on OEX> Oct 20 655 strike @ 2.60. For thrills and chills, bro.
ReplyDelete"Nat Gas completes major bottom — trend should now be up for several years"
ReplyDeleteNot a fan of UNG though, due to rollover.
Peter Brandt
Obama looked exactly how I look when my kids argue with me.
ReplyDeleteClosed the OEX put @ 2.25.
ReplyDeleteHPQ gets no love.
ReplyDeleteNor should she.
DeleteBMO has a $5 price target??!!! Oh, momma....
DeleteOh baby, let the good times roll...... ;)
ReplyDeleteBuy the dip with both hands and SELL THE POP, eh!
ReplyDeleteNATI - Out at $24.62, a penny gain.
ReplyDeleteUWM - Bot this one at $44.44, rode it to $44.03, said: WTF?!?! and sold it @ $44.45 for a penny gain.
AUMN - $4.80 does keep on holding, $5 will be history if gold closes better than $1780, IMO.
ReplyDeleteFull speed ahead!
UCO - Did you guys load this one end of day yesterday?
ReplyDeleteJudging by how AUMN is trading today (it went deep into the red at some point, while GDXJ gapped up and never looked back), it looks like it is in the stage of being totally despised and unloved. Could a secondary share offering really create such a mistrust toward AUMN? I would understand if it couldn't get up much higher above $5.75 for a while, but why is it stuck below $5???
ReplyDeleteOne trader on seekingalpha mentioned that he sees large blocks of shares for sale periodically, and given AUMN's very low volume, even a single larger trader can affect the stock for several days while exiting his position...
Deletehere's another one that sure as hell looks like a longer term winner: TLYS. i only know about it because my wife shops there and i just found out they went public not too long ago.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - New low tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteI have no idea what's up with this one. Really rangy trading. Makes it scary to get in.
DeleteVRNG- I sure late passengers get lucky on any pending rulings...
ReplyDelete