I couldn't find a video of the scene where Marks gets 'introduced' to weed his first week at Oxford. If you have NFLX, download the film. It will take you back to the Sixties.
We with a couple of guys who have been going for 15 years and they say the courses on the northwest are the best, so we went to the town of Ballyliffin and played the courses around there - 2 at the Ballyliffin golf club and 1 at Rosa Pena. All are links courses, 2 are rated top 10 in Ireland. Lots of fun, tough to score with wind and fast greens.
The great thing for the locals is we paid $60 Euro's to play and they can get an annual membership for $900 and a first-year membership for $300.
Just reading about a Canadian Newspaper stock and 30% of their EBITDA is now being put into pensions due to low rates. The report states that if interest rates rise just 1% - 2%, that money could be used to double the dividend or invest in other businesses.
Bet there are a lot of companies in the same situation and buying some of these might be a safer way to play the rise in rates than TBT.
Okay, I don't see this as bearish but perhaps I'm not interpreting correctly....
So since CALPERS a pension fund, then aren't we saying they might be short Treasuries? Anticipating limited upside for T's and money flow into something else is the play then, right?
Thus corporate profits are being placed with pension funds who are short T's?
Not sure I understand this correctly, this is my interpretation.
NLY - Okay, the gap down was closed. I don't try to use TA on this one due to it seems to be useless. I can't seem to figure out the dividend cycle using T/A, and since NLY has been trading around $17 for a couple of years, long term the chart doesn't show actual trading price.
GMO - Well I wasn't anticipating the EIS would create such a reaction but the ROD probably will, when it comes, and it will. I'm not sure though if the ROD is dependent on those state permits, I don't think it is, I think it's dependent on the EIS.
"We continue to expect receipt of a favorable Record of Decision (RoD) as well as completion of the remaining major Nevada State permits by the end of 2012, and to commence construction shortly thereafter."
Then there are the contractual penalties for permitting delay, which I'm not sure if those are priced in. Could be they are but for some reason I was thinking they aren't. I suppose if you assume the market anticipates delay as all of these projects involve (thus reason for contractual causes) then you could say the penalties are priced in.
"However, the company's operating performance and liquidity have improved over the last few quarters and we could raise the ratings if YRC Worldwide Inc. addresses its significant debt maturities in 2014, maintains adequate covenant cushion, and operating performance continues to strengthen despite a sluggish economy."
I don't know I kind of like the fact they're acknowledging that operations have improved. I'm not so sure the market is pricing this in with the stock trading at 0.01 times sales (vs 0.30 to 0.60 on others in the industry). They very well could maneuver through this period, extend maturities again, and return to profitability. If that happens the stock will be up ten fold.
IMF: "Except for Ireland, which is in a bumpy recovery, the recessions in the economies of the euro area periphery have been deeper, and recovery is generally expected to begin only in 2013, once adjustment moderates."
I am actually eyeing putting a few grand into the $6 nov calls. I just have a feeling that IRE could be at $10 soon, making those a 20 bagger. I can't believe Nov calls are only at $0.20 when the stock is at $5.80. That requires a move of 7% which for this stock could happen in an hour.
That drop to 5.38 took out the weak hands, it kissed the 50 dma (a decent stop) and I think it takes off on the strong euro if it gets past the 200 and $6. I like your call.
If you look at the stronger banks like LYG and SAN, they have made better moves off the bottom than IRE, so I would interpret that as the large ones leading, then the small ones like IRE will follow up and move more up on a percentage basis.
LYG up 80% since June, SAN up 50%, IRE only up 12%, so make sense.
Bought LYG way too early in 2010 at $4.21, so still way under water, but much more optimistic. there's talk now LYG is trying to get approval to get a dividend going which would certainly help.
Re interest rates, MET up over 2% again today as 10 year US govt rates get above the 1.8% mark.
Will help all the insurance companies unless things jump really fast, plus the companies with big pension issues.
Insurance companies are still cheap. AGO up nicely, but more risky MTG up 20%. ORI, which I bought back in the low $8's up to $10.57 on a Raymond James upgrade due to less risk in their mortgage insurance portfolio.
The main pattern I discerned so far in ZH is that they are "anti-establishment." More specifically, this leads to their positive forecasts for PMs due to global money printing. But what else is new? Even CC has the same bias. Blogs with such bias either repeat the same emotional stories or keep digging out interesting facts like ZH. Maybe they attach too much importance to those facts, but it is up to us to filter their "implications" and stay with raw facts.
1. Takes a lot of risk out the financial system 2. Provides good paying US based jobs 3. Gets consumers buying again 4. Helps with demand for emerging markets to keep their growth cycles in tact
Stocks that should do well are the ones you suggested, but I also think consumer discretionary and energy are going to be good the next few years as well.
Same laws, but I never do it. I'd be afraid the time I did it was the time they got a takeover bid or something else great would happen. I just hold it until it gets to a good price or if it gets worse and the business also gets worse to a point it is not worth holding.
One nice thing we have up here is all capital gains are taxed as capital gains (50%) rate and none of this short term, long term stuff.
Just downloaded the first 3 seasons of Weeds to start watching - be interesting to see how drugs are sold in the 21st century.
ReplyDeleteWhat courses did you play on your trip?
DeleteWe with a couple of guys who have been going for 15 years and they say the courses on the northwest are the best, so we went to the town of Ballyliffin and played the courses around there - 2 at the Ballyliffin golf club and 1 at Rosa Pena. All are links courses, 2 are rated top 10 in Ireland. Lots of fun, tough to score with wind and fast greens.
DeleteThe great thing for the locals is we paid $60 Euro's to play and they can get an annual membership for $900 and a first-year membership for $300.
Romney to eliminate capital gains, does this include gold?
ReplyDeleteOnly from fillings. Playing to the right demographic.
DeleteOffed QID @ 28.16, offed TZA @ 14.80. Flat on the combined trades.
ReplyDeleteOffed UNG @ 22.31
ReplyDeleteJust reading about a Canadian Newspaper stock and 30% of their EBITDA is now being put into pensions due to low rates. The report states that if interest rates rise just 1% - 2%, that money could be used to double the dividend or invest in other businesses.
ReplyDeleteBet there are a lot of companies in the same situation and buying some of these might be a safer way to play the rise in rates than TBT.
That's a very interesting take.
DeleteYes, that is in interesting. Okay, so how do we proceed to run with this ball?
DeleteThink of CALPERS...if they can get their 7% more safely than stocks wouldn't that be bearish?
DeleteOkay, I don't see this as bearish but perhaps I'm not interpreting correctly....
DeleteSo since CALPERS a pension fund, then aren't we saying they might be short Treasuries? Anticipating limited upside for T's and money flow into something else is the play then, right?
Thus corporate profits are being placed with pension funds who are short T's?
Not sure I understand this correctly, this is my interpretation.
Looks like the opening drop in INTC was a buying opportunity.
ReplyDelete$21.21 was my personal target, the best TA target I could come up with was $21.39. FWIW
DeleteNLY - Okay, the gap down was closed. I don't try to use TA on this one due to it seems to be useless. I can't seem to figure out the dividend cycle using T/A, and since NLY has been trading around $17 for a couple of years, long term the chart doesn't show actual trading price.
ReplyDeleteDid we ever find out what was up with GMO?
ReplyDeleteGMO - Well I wasn't anticipating the EIS would create such a reaction but the ROD probably will, when it comes, and it will. I'm not sure though if the ROD is dependent on those state permits, I don't think it is, I think it's dependent on the EIS.
ReplyDelete"We continue to expect receipt of a favorable Record of Decision (RoD) as well as completion of the remaining major Nevada State permits by the end of 2012, and to commence construction shortly thereafter."
Hmmm...OK, thanks.
DeleteThen there are the contractual penalties for permitting delay, which I'm not sure if those are priced in. Could be they are but for some reason I was thinking they aren't. I suppose if you assume the market anticipates delay as all of these projects involve (thus reason for contractual causes) then you could say the penalties are priced in.
DeleteNew news out today from S&P on YRCW:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/17/idUSWNA774520121017
All in all I think it's actually a positive because they're acknowledging the improvements that YRCW is making.
"However, the company's operating performance and liquidity have
Deleteimproved over the last few quarters and we could raise the ratings if YRC
Worldwide Inc. addresses its significant debt maturities in 2014, maintains
adequate covenant cushion, and operating performance continues to strengthen
despite a sluggish economy."
I don't know I kind of like the fact they're acknowledging that operations have improved. I'm not so sure the market is pricing this in with the stock trading at 0.01 times sales (vs 0.30 to 0.60 on others in the industry). They very well could maneuver through this period, extend maturities again, and return to profitability. If that happens the stock will be up ten fold.
MCP getting a little jiggy last 30 minutes, vol picked up on 5 min chart. Daily vol still anemic.
ReplyDeletelong
Looks good but that sucker is still basing in my opinion. Which would mean that what looks logical (i.e., breakouts, breakdowns) should be faded.
DeleteThe verdict's still out. Trading it is like being at the end of a bullwhip. Like many stock's nowadays seems to give up the ghost by the eod
DeleteAAPL - Okay, so which way is this thing gonna go, can't it make $655?
ReplyDeleteMaybe run to somewhere around $665 then reverse to the downside from there?
Meanwhile INTC moves up from here and reverses about the same time as AAPL to come back and test previous support?
I wanna try QID as AAPL reverses to downside.
Greece continues to be the best performing market in the world. GREK now up 105% from June. Wow.
ReplyDeleteIRE chart looks fantastic.
ReplyDeleteIMF: "Except for Ireland, which is in a bumpy recovery, the recessions in the economies of the euro area periphery have been deeper, and recovery is generally expected to begin only in 2013, once adjustment moderates."
DeleteI like this one too. I was bidding yesterday but no bites.
DeleteAmazing seems the world is slowing down, but no one seems to care. I guess just too many people underinvested and chasing.
I am actually eyeing putting a few grand into the $6 nov calls. I just have a feeling that IRE could be at $10 soon, making those a 20 bagger. I can't believe Nov calls are only at $0.20 when the stock is at $5.80. That requires a move of 7% which for this stock could happen in an hour.
DeleteIRE - Chart sure is tempting, I guess the first entry alert occurs as price moves up past $6.14
DeleteThese banks should be forced to file BK so shareholders get wiped out before the taxpayer steps up to the plate.
I guess politicians must be the shareholders.
another up day on volume of 300k or more and its a buy.
DeleteThat drop to 5.38 took out the weak hands, it kissed the 50 dma (a decent stop) and I think it takes off on the strong euro if it gets past the 200 and $6. I like your call.
DeleteIf you look at the stronger banks like LYG and SAN, they have made better moves off the bottom than IRE, so I would interpret that as the large ones leading, then the small ones like IRE will follow up and move more up on a percentage basis.
DeleteI wouldn't be surprised to see IRE move to $8 again over the next month or two.
DeleteLYG up 80% since June, SAN up 50%, IRE only up 12%, so make sense.
DeleteBought LYG way too early in 2010 at $4.21, so still way under water, but much more optimistic. there's talk now LYG is trying to get approval to get a dividend going which would certainly help.
APPL - Worms munching away.
ReplyDeleteAPPY - Now that's one helluva chart.
ReplyDeleteAnother turnaround stock? ;)
DeleteRe interest rates, MET up over 2% again today as 10 year US govt rates get above the 1.8% mark.
ReplyDeleteWill help all the insurance companies unless things jump really fast, plus the companies with big pension issues.
Insurance companies are still cheap. AGO up nicely, but more risky MTG up 20%. ORI, which I bought back in the low $8's up to $10.57 on a Raymond James upgrade due to less risk in their mortgage insurance portfolio.
"sorry i just can't take anything on ZH seriously."
ReplyDeleteTOF -- sometimes they focus on irrelevant stories, but I never saw them providing incorrect facts...
they have an agenda David.
DeleteThey pass on some good research that most would not get, but agree with TOF and dislike the veil of secrecy as to who they are.
DeleteThe main pattern I discerned so far in ZH is that they are "anti-establishment." More specifically, this leads to their positive forecasts for PMs due to global money printing. But what else is new? Even CC has the same bias. Blogs with such bias either repeat the same emotional stories or keep digging out interesting facts like ZH. Maybe they attach too much importance to those facts, but it is up to us to filter their "implications" and stay with raw facts.
Deletecut loose NEM AND MCP
ReplyDeleteSector rotation is definitely underway...tech out...economically sensitive stuff (banks, builders, shippers, etc) in.
ReplyDeleteI think housing improving is a big deal:
Delete1. Takes a lot of risk out the financial system
2. Provides good paying US based jobs
3. Gets consumers buying again
4. Helps with demand for emerging markets to keep their growth cycles in tact
Stocks that should do well are the ones you suggested, but I also think consumer discretionary and energy are going to be good the next few years as well.
Just saw this post on Business Insider which gives a good indication of the trend change:
Deletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-comeback-2012-10
Didn't realize consumer discretionary was approaching alltime highs already, but there are still good stocks to look at in this area.
LYG- Being a LT holder type guy, do you ever just take the tax loss and jump back in 30 days later? Or is it diff. up there?
ReplyDeleteSame laws, but I never do it. I'd be afraid the time I did it was the time they got a takeover bid or something else great would happen. I just hold it until it gets to a good price or if it gets worse and the business also gets worse to a point it is not worth holding.
DeleteOne nice thing we have up here is all capital gains are taxed as capital gains (50%) rate and none of this short term, long term stuff.
ORCL - Capsized today.
ReplyDelete