Landry has a cousin, one who also draws arrows. His cousin's from Ohio. Here's a rough illustration of the arrows he sketched over lunch:
October 1460>>>November 1380>>>December 1480>>>January 1500>>>February 1550>>>March 1290
NSPH - Really don't see it as a loser in the long term. They have a superior product that saves lives and saves money for hospitals and labs. OK, it is a one product company which is a risk factor.
ONVO - Another innovative bio-technical which has jumped in last few days. OTC with little news.
Hey 2nd, feel like listening to some girl's song you post. The girl plays piano and has red hair and the song is cornflake girl or something like that. I have been trying to think of her name and song for 6 hours now.
No buys no sells today. I kept my GLD because of Geoff's comments. I may sell tomorrow. Sure feels like we need to go down a bit before we can rally to new highs.
The only group on my buy list was XHB or maybe one of the homebuilders, LEN, PHM. I just watched XHB and it just seemed to crawl right up to resistance so I'm still just watching. Maybe tomorrow.
I have Jan 35 strike calls on FXI, made about $.70 on them so far. Seems that FXI is right at resistance so there may be a pullback. Hopefully its one of those bull flag things. I may sell half my position tomorrow to follow Landry's teaching on taking partial profits at least.
With APPL, IBM, GOOG, MSFT, INTC, and now GE all disappointing on earnings and/or guidance, the DJIA is still within spitting distance of 52-wk highs. That's just hard to believe.
"It's a bull market when it won't go down on bad news".
That's true. But the kind of collective bad news we now have will eventually be reflected in stock prices. Usually when everyone is on board. Right now (if we can believe what we read), individual investors are not on board. I think a run to 1550 would get them on the train. Then, and only then, do the indexes go into free fall.
China's latest economic GDP growth data probably isn't helping much either, although some say it's bottoming here but don't anticipate a return to previous levels from past years.
anyone else want to buy puts on SHW like i do? earnings on 10/25. those $140 Nov puts look interesting. tons of neg divergences on the chart and a chit load of insider selling.
If it turns back up and clears the previous high (around 3.89)....or...declines to the 10 dma and then clears the previous day's high. That would be better. Looking good though, thanks, I'll put it on my list.
I agree...I like the entry here. i think there could be downside to $2.70 but a lot of the risk has gone out of the stock with this move down. It still in some ways reminds me of SQNM which is scary.
Its weird…I just checked and I noticed we're now down a WHOPPING 2.5% from the highs reached a month ago. Actually 2.45%. So the panicking and fears of a 40% drop are certainly justified.
Fits and starts, is the phrase that comes to mind.
$COMPQ might test the weekly EMA34 (~2980) and move briefly down through? AAPL has quite a bit of downside coming it appears, so it's gonna be hard not to penetrate the weaker support levels?
I really like the S&P 1380 call, maybe this is all too obvious?
I don't get the call for a 40% drop though, that would be spectacular. Are we hitting a major wall? So there's probably gonna be more pain associated with continued earnings disappoint, we can at least count on that being blown out of proportion under the premise of soft earnings, can't we?
Maybe earnings won't be quite as bad as we're being led to believe? I see it as Europe and China's slowdown finally showing up in the corporate numbers and "let's make the most of a crisis", the rally we just experienced might be categorized as another trap. Once an earnings bottom is carved out, we should begin experiencing/resume a steadier market rally?
Everything's always blown out of proportion, just a question of how ridiculous it can get.
SPX 666 was a pretty good example I think, computers are merely wondrous weapons designed for creating extremes.
A quick look at the QQQ chart shows support at $65 (the top of the previous range) which is also the 200 dma. If that fails it could get fugly down to $62 - $60 (the previous range).
It is currently bow-tied down on the daily. Internals are very weak.
Let me take a contrarian POV. The reason we're more successful than most is likely due to persistence. Studies like that one are generally based on the 'average' market timer. Those of us still standing after say 5-10 years have much higher odds of success.
The question is: can they continue to turn operations around? the management team admitted that they saw a slowdown in April that caught them off guard. however, they went on to post their 1st operating profit in q2 during that slowdown. insiders bought a couple of weeks after the earnings report was released. i'd have to imagine they saw a continuation of progress. can they continue to cut costs and streamline the business so they can turn a NET profit and not just an operating profit? who knows. but the old management team mismanaged things so badly that it's probably safe to assume there were a lot of excesses to wring out of the business. they will need to continue to do this in order to meet their debt covenants which call for higher pro forma EBITDA over the next few quarters. they were about $30 Million above the level required in their covenant at Q2 which gives them room for Q3 and Q4. With this business even if there is a slowdown you have a stock that is priced for complete failure. Anything other than that could make it a big winner. Big ifs there but I like what I'm hearing from the new CEO and the trends of recent are positive.
Blood all over that street. People give up under these situations too easily. There's no good reason management can't turn things around they have the opportunity and will, no doubt.
It could take longer than anticipated, and that's probably keeping many people away considering what everyone just went through but persistence favors success.
CP - The most ironic thing that could happen is there is a recession/slowdown and oil prices get hit hard, which cause their margins to skyrocket (oil = huge input cost and the recent price increases cause margins to improve drastically). every other company in the sector would get hit because they're not priced for failure...
There is a definite risk of bankrupcy here for sure - debt high, negative shareholder equity, pension deficits, aggressive competitors targetting them, etc. They are working hard, but even if they do the right things, a weak economy could sink them.
But you can be sure the stock won't be $7 is a few years - either much higher or $0 and the risk/reward is pretty good I think.
Many traders will be looking to play a dead cat bounce. ---- that! I don't think we get one that easily.
If there is one, they'll make a few bucks...right before it turns back down. If there isn't one, they'll take a hit for no reason. I don't like the odds.
I have memories of jumping back in early in 2008. This is nothing like 2008, of course. Just saying that when it's 'easy' to jump in, that ain't the time to be doing it.
If we gap down further on Monday, sure- I'll consider it. If we don't gap down on Monday, nothing lost. If I go long today and it gaps down Monday...I don't want to be in that position.
And don't underestimate my ability to accomplish seemingly impossible menial tasks from great distances. I'll bet I can force you to get up from your chair, for example.
Just got back...I tried to close NSPH @ 3.06, but only 200 shares got hit. I have to leave again before the close so I'll just leave that order in place. If it hits, it will pay for my next 3 weekends in Sacto!
How about AUMN? It has held up very well during the recent week, suggesting that the post-FOMC decline is over. Especially in the light of your other observation: "Interesting that the TSX Venture Exchange where all the junior miners live is nicely in the green today, even with gold and oil down." I can also add to it: GDXJ is down less than SLV today, which is unusual, but has often been the case during the post-FOMC decline in silver. My conclusion: traders are realizing that this decline in PMs is temporary, and hence the future prospects of the miners are as good as they were before.
From the BACML report I believe was forwarded to you guys:
July 26, 2012:
"Increasing Mt Hope capex estimate $100 mn to $1.35 bn In November 2011, we increased our Mt Hope development capex to $1.25 bn (16 November 2011) vs. GMO’s last forecast (November 2009) of $1.15 bn. Further reports of base metal project cost overruns have us increasing our Mt Hope development capex again, now $1.35 bn. This leaves a $200 mn capex funding gap in our model. We believe GMO could come to the market to fill this gap (i.e. subordinated debt with equity kicker or equity), but likely not until after permitting and its previously arranged financings are complete."
did lots of stuff that worked intraday, unusual but I'll take it,
Stopped out of my SSO, sold my GLD shares, sold half my FXI calls, sold short a couple TBT Nov 63.50 strike puts
bot 2 GOOG Dec 690 puts this morn, sold one this afternoon and I'll put in a stop on the other one. GOOG puts are pricey. I bought the puts after seeing a post by Janice Dorn on Buzz and banter about the history of GOOG's price movement after suffering a decline like they had yesterday. According to the post, GOOG is down 2.4% 76.9% of the time 8 days after the big drop in price. GOOG was trading around $697 when I saw the post and I decided to buy the puts. Now that I'm reading the post a little closer I"m wishing I would have sold both puts because GOOG is already down 1.9% on day 1 after the movement so there's not much left to get to 2.4%. Make sense? Mabe we'll have a weak open on Monday.
Also bought some XHB Mar 24 strike calls. I though XHB held up real well in today's tape. I'm thinking the market may sell off some more but I don't see XHB moving down too much unless we get some negative home data. I'm seeing so much chatter about home prices, I'm thinking XHB has a fairly high chance of just gapping up and running after all the general market selling is done. We'll see. JUST IN CASE, I plan to use stops on these calls. More on that later this weekend.
What could drive a correction? I don't know if this qualifies. I suspect these folks have good accountants, advisers and attorney's but you never know.
We already discussed the fiscal cliff subject here and decided it's just not gonna happen. There will be no tax increases just b/c the government falls hopelessly in debt if they don't act quickly to stop the hemorrhaging.
Hard to argue with as long as rates remain in negative territory?
It really doesn't matter whether the fiscal cliff happens or not. Those with money at risk will prefer to sell now and debate later. Capital preservation.
Akorn (AKRX; $12.99; C-1-9) Our EPS estimates for 3Q12 and 2012 are unchanged at $0.13 and $0.49, respectively. We modestly lowered our 2013 EPS estimate by a penny to $0.69. We are maintaining our discounted cash flow (DCF)-based price objective of $18, which implies that the stock can trade at roughly 22x our 2014E EPS of $0.81.
FSYS vs WPRT - Are there any good reasons to prefer WPRT over FSYS? FSYS has been manufacturing fuel delivery systems much longer and their products are well integrated all over the place.
If they let this tax expire, then it will be a serious motivation for Bernanke to keep buying long-term Treasuries beyond 2012, without selling any short-term securities -- he already hinted that he might do that, and given his concern about the negative impact of tax increases on the economy, he will definitely want to do something to offset it.
NSPH - Really don't see it as a loser in the long term. They have a superior product that saves lives and saves money for hospitals and labs. OK, it is a one product company which is a risk factor.
ReplyDeleteONVO - Another innovative bio-technical which has jumped in last few days. OTC with little news.
Hey 2nd, feel like listening to some girl's song you post. The girl plays piano and has red hair and the song is cornflake girl or something like that. I have been trying to think of her name and song for 6 hours now.
ReplyDeleteHelp me if you can! TIA
Found it Tori Amos. Ah now I can scratch that itch.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_fjoqZZik4
DeleteThis one is better:
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrD8SZ0cBW0
BB, thx for the interest rate link.
ReplyDeleteNo buys no sells today. I kept my GLD because of Geoff's comments. I may sell tomorrow. Sure feels like we need to go down a bit before we can rally to new highs.
The only group on my buy list was XHB or maybe one of the homebuilders, LEN, PHM. I just watched XHB and it just seemed to crawl right up to resistance so I'm still just watching. Maybe tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI have Jan 35 strike calls on FXI, made about $.70 on them so far. Seems that FXI is right at resistance so there may be a pullback. Hopefully its one of those bull flag things. I may sell half my position tomorrow to follow Landry's teaching on taking partial profits at least.
ReplyDeleteJust got back from a work-related dinner. A lot going on in SF tonight. Niners at the 'stick. Giants playing on big screens.
ReplyDeleteTori Amos> youtube one of the greatest technological products ever.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSLB let go at 75.57
ReplyDeleteJudging by what they are saying on TV and the broad market calls on the web, I'm surprised the market is not down more than the 0.4% it is.
ReplyDeleteThere is some saying like a "its a bull market when it won't go down on bad news".
With APPL, IBM, GOOG, MSFT, INTC, and now GE all disappointing on earnings and/or guidance, the DJIA is still within spitting distance of 52-wk highs. That's just hard to believe.
ReplyDeleteThey rotated into Health Care.
DeleteYou know how I see it, the "bad news" is piled on until the market advance suddenly reverses.
Delete2nd- That's what I was talking about with JB yesterday.
DeleteIf only I'd hung on to UNG/UGAZ. How many times have I said that?
ReplyDeleteCramer was suggesting WPRT last week, looks like it hasn't moved.
DeleteNext year's Cara Conference will be available via remote access.
ReplyDeleteWe should all do the contrarian thing and plan to spend a weekend in Toronto!
DeleteIf only it were Vancouver.
DeleteHawaii
DeleteHawaii...I'm bunking at Tele's.
DeleteYou better like the floor. lol
DeleteSLB, 5 min chart 3rd 5 min bar, what was that all about? Talk about shakin your boogie.
DeleteR2-S2 in one bar. Fugly.
DeleteAAPL - I'm still hoping this one makes it past $655 but I guess it wont before $522 comes, followed by $430?
ReplyDelete"It's a bull market when it won't go down on bad news".
ReplyDeleteThat's true. But the kind of collective bad news we now have will eventually be reflected in stock prices. Usually when everyone is on board. Right now (if we can believe what we read), individual investors are not on board. I think a run to 1550 would get them on the train. Then, and only then, do the indexes go into free fall.
1380 seems a good area to buy the dip.
DeleteI agree. It's going to be 'too early' to buy all the way down to 1380.
DeleteIf/when we get there, however, I would buy aggressively. 1550 follows 1380.
DeleteAt 1550, I would then get the ---- out.
Delete30,000 stinkies on NSPH again. 2.91-2.86
ReplyDeleteGOOG now back in the red.
ReplyDeleteHFTs are all programmed to buy the bounce, IMO. They'll all zoom in for the buy near today's close. Zoom and doom, bro.
ReplyDeleteZoom and doom is the best description I've ever heard.
DeleteI can't believe they had the faith to toss Lincecum out there. Come on now.
ReplyDeleteChina's latest economic GDP growth data probably isn't helping much either, although some say it's bottoming here but don't anticipate a return to previous levels from past years.
ReplyDeleteBAC sure looks like it is going to go to the $12 area.
ReplyDeleteMark's providing the downside cap on today's NSPH panic.
ReplyDeleteThis down move is more like I would have expected.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it is an absorb the bad news until it can't any more, then dump the market situation.
Nothing really jumping out to buy yet, but I am watching MSFT and would like to get it under $26.
ReplyDeleteI think it's a good bet here with dividend support to limit the downside, plus if Windows 8 uptake for the upside (assuming it is good).
$25.60ish looks to me like a possibility, off hand.
Deleteanyone else want to buy puts on SHW like i do? earnings on 10/25. those $140 Nov puts look interesting. tons of neg divergences on the chart and a chit load of insider selling.
ReplyDeleteAre we ready to party like it's 1987?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/another-stock-crash-like-1987s-is-inevitable-2012-10-17?dist=afterbell
http://www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/print?guid=8F6DC7BE-186C-11E2-A50C-002128049AD6
10,000 filled at 2.91.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't GMO be a Landry trade here?
Wonder if that 185,000 share bid in @ 2.96 is real?
DeleteIf it turns back up and clears the previous high (around 3.89)....or...declines to the 10 dma and then clears the previous day's high. That would be better. Looking good though, thanks, I'll put it on my list.
DeleteI agree...I like the entry here. i think there could be downside to $2.70 but a lot of the risk has gone out of the stock with this move down. It still in some ways reminds me of SQNM which is scary.
DeleteAlright, how about October 1969?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=9uPKcMkH0vw#!
http://www.rollingstone.com/music/pictures/readers-poll-the-best-led-zeppelin-songs-of-all-time-20121010
That's more like it!
DeleteYou'll like this one.....
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1aFqjP1iuzY#!
Its weird…I just checked and I noticed we're now down a WHOPPING 2.5% from the highs reached a month ago. Actually 2.45%. So the panicking and fears of a 40% drop are certainly justified.
ReplyDeleteThey were kinda hinting at it when they said Buffett had exited some positions. Then the charts started rolling over and bow tying.
DeleteI wondering where QQQ is going to find support.
Fits and starts, is the phrase that comes to mind.
Delete$COMPQ might test the weekly EMA34 (~2980) and move briefly down through? AAPL has quite a bit of downside coming it appears, so it's gonna be hard not to penetrate the weaker support levels?
I really like the S&P 1380 call, maybe this is all too obvious?
I don't get the call for a 40% drop though, that would be spectacular. Are we hitting a major wall? So there's probably gonna be more pain associated with continued earnings disappoint, we can at least count on that being blown out of proportion under the premise of soft earnings, can't we?
Maybe earnings won't be quite as bad as we're being led to believe? I see it as Europe and China's slowdown finally showing up in the corporate numbers and "let's make the most of a crisis", the rally we just experienced might be categorized as another trap. Once an earnings bottom is carved out, we should begin experiencing/resume a steadier market rally?
Everything's always blown out of proportion, just a question of how ridiculous it can get.
SPX 666 was a pretty good example I think, computers are merely wondrous weapons designed for creating extremes.
GOOG - So GOOG's selective pre-announcement list accidentally slipped into the public domain ahead of schedule, huh?
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Very nice call there, Mark!
ReplyDeleteSo, what am I thinking about buying today? Nothing.
ReplyDeleteI wanna see if tomorrow brings more of the same, can we fast-forward the tape please?
DeleteI can guarantee no market action tomorrow ;)
DeleteGREK continues to move up...now up about 110% from lows in June. IRE continues to beg me to buy.
ReplyDeletetof- You're right, BAC is a notable green on my screen right now.
ReplyDeleteEven more notable is SNDK.
DeleteNASDAQ - Look at downside potential from this perspective, wouldn't it be believable to assume RSI(7) on the weekly could at least test 30?
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p10417576576
A quick look at the QQQ chart shows support at $65 (the top of the previous range) which is also the 200 dma. If that fails it could get fugly down to $62 - $60 (the previous range).
DeleteIt is currently bow-tied down on the daily. Internals are very weak.
ReplyDeleteAccording to this study, less than 1% if individuals beat the market long term. If true, our group here is doing pretty darn good.
http://www.marketwatch.com/m/story/individual-investors-are-destroying-their-wealth-2012-10-19?pageNumber=1&allPages=True
Let me take a contrarian POV. The reason we're more successful than most is likely due to persistence. Studies like that one are generally based on the 'average' market timer. Those of us still standing after say 5-10 years have much higher odds of success.
DeleteGood point.
DeleteI also suspect that all this talk about the 1987 crash isn't doing individual investors any help.
ReplyDeleteSometimes history rhymes. That may be what they're thinking.
DeleteBought a little more YRCW at $6.76. Still love these prices on a stock that I think could hit $50 in a couple of years.
ReplyDeleteTalk about the fat pitch, $50 wouldn't surprise me at all. One hell of a nice trade.
DeleteThe question is: can they continue to turn operations around? the management team admitted that they saw a slowdown in April that caught them off guard. however, they went on to post their 1st operating profit in q2 during that slowdown. insiders bought a couple of weeks after the earnings report was released. i'd have to imagine they saw a continuation of progress. can they continue to cut costs and streamline the business so they can turn a NET profit and not just an operating profit? who knows. but the old management team mismanaged things so badly that it's probably safe to assume there were a lot of excesses to wring out of the business. they will need to continue to do this in order to meet their debt covenants which call for higher pro forma EBITDA over the next few quarters. they were about $30 Million above the level required in their covenant at Q2 which gives them room for Q3 and Q4. With this business even if there is a slowdown you have a stock that is priced for complete failure. Anything other than that could make it a big winner. Big ifs there but I like what I'm hearing from the new CEO and the trends of recent are positive.
DeleteBlood all over that street. People give up under these situations too easily. There's no good reason management can't turn things around they have the opportunity and will, no doubt.
DeleteIt could take longer than anticipated, and that's probably keeping many people away considering what everyone just went through but persistence favors success.
CP - The most ironic thing that could happen is there is a recession/slowdown and oil prices get hit hard, which cause their margins to skyrocket (oil = huge input cost and the recent price increases cause margins to improve drastically). every other company in the sector would get hit because they're not priced for failure...
DeleteThere is a definite risk of bankrupcy here for sure - debt high, negative shareholder equity, pension deficits, aggressive competitors targetting them, etc. They are working hard, but even if they do the right things, a weak economy could sink them.
DeleteBut you can be sure the stock won't be $7 is a few years - either much higher or $0 and the risk/reward is pretty good I think.
Many traders will be looking to play a dead cat bounce. ---- that! I don't think we get one that easily.
ReplyDeleteIf there is one, they'll make a few bucks...right before it turns back down. If there isn't one, they'll take a hit for no reason. I don't like the odds.
We just had one off of QQQ 66.53 (about 142 on the SPY)which big Dave calls a gate keeper. That was my signal to go short the Q's. (QID).
DeleteBow-ties and gate keepers, the guy knows his s**t but I just don't understand the lingo.
DeleteIt's always nice to hear about it in retrospect though, once the trades are done.
Bow tie: MA's flipping positions.
DeleteGate keeper: retrace or bounce against the trend.
The trades aren't done. If we get a bounce and reverse down again then go short.
Here: http://screencast.com/t/mlaYkMHK4h
Blue arrow points to bowtie.
Red arrow is the retrace/gatekeeper.
XPP - Retest 200SMA then off to the races????
ReplyDeleteI have memories of jumping back in early in 2008. This is nothing like 2008, of course. Just saying that when it's 'easy' to jump in, that ain't the time to be doing it.
ReplyDeleteIf we gap down further on Monday, sure- I'll consider it. If we don't gap down on Monday, nothing lost. If I go long today and it gaps down Monday...I don't want to be in that position.
Delete"I can guarantee no market action tomorrow ;)"
ReplyDeleteYou West Coast guys, always out on a limb. ;)
I also guarantee the Giants win tonight, Sunday, and Monday.
DeleteDon't start making promises you don't intend on keeping unless you're willing to put your money up front! ;)
DeleteMan, I sure hope so...but SERIOUSLY doubt it. Middle isn't hitting worth a shit.
DeleteAnd don't underestimate my ability to accomplish seemingly impossible menial tasks from great distances. I'll bet I can force you to get up from your chair, for example.
DeleteIf you could harness that power and force me to sleep well for 2 weeks while holding UNG calls, I'll split the profits with you!
DeleteJust got back...I tried to close NSPH @ 3.06, but only 200 shares got hit. I have to leave again before the close so I'll just leave that order in place. If it hits, it will pay for my next 3 weekends in Sacto!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/jpms-tom-lee-bankruptcy-purge-2012-10
ReplyDeleteInteresting take. Make sense.
DeleteThis has gotta hurt.
ReplyDeleteThe Salt Lake Tribune endorses Obama. Say's there are too many Mitts.
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/opinion/55019844-82/romney-obama-state-president.html.csp
You know, even though it looks like more selling than buying, I like the volume up turn here in NSPH. Thinking of pulling my order.
ReplyDeleteInteresting that the TSX Venture Exchange where all the junior miners live is nicely in the green today, even with gold and oil down.
ReplyDeleteAnd for all the noise about the market being down, it still looks like the S&P 500 will be up for the week.
DeleteTGIF, time for a brewski. Just cut a tree down out back, now going back out to cut it up.
Delete"Nothing really jumping out to buy yet"
ReplyDeleteHow about AUMN? It has held up very well during the recent week, suggesting that the post-FOMC decline is over. Especially in the light of your other observation: "Interesting that the TSX Venture Exchange where all the junior miners live is nicely in the green today, even with gold and oil down." I can also add to it: GDXJ is down less than SLV today, which is unusual, but has often been the case during the post-FOMC decline in silver. My conclusion: traders are realizing that this decline in PMs is temporary, and hence the future prospects of the miners are as good as they were before.
The AAII survey results got even more skewed last week: 28% bullish vs 44% bearish! The market is setting up for a nice rally.
ReplyDeletePockets of Hail-Mary buying here and there.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Would it be more, or less likely that Hanlong would receive final financing approval for Mt. Hope if their Sundance deal fell through?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/15/sundance-hanlong-idUSL3E8LF02D20121015
From the BACML report I believe was forwarded to you guys:
DeleteJuly 26, 2012:
"Increasing Mt Hope capex estimate $100 mn to $1.35 bn
In November 2011, we increased our Mt Hope development capex to $1.25 bn
(16 November 2011) vs. GMO’s last forecast (November 2009) of $1.15 bn.
Further reports of base metal project cost overruns have us increasing our Mt
Hope development capex again, now $1.35 bn. This leaves a $200 mn capex
funding gap in our model. We believe GMO could come to the market to fill this
gap (i.e. subordinated debt with equity kicker or equity), but likely not until after
permitting and its previously arranged financings are complete."
evening fellas, had a busy tradin day
ReplyDeletedid lots of stuff that worked intraday, unusual but I'll take it,
Stopped out of my SSO, sold my GLD shares, sold half my FXI calls, sold short a couple TBT Nov 63.50 strike puts
bot 2 GOOG Dec 690 puts this morn, sold one this afternoon and I'll put in a stop on the other one. GOOG puts are pricey. I bought the puts after seeing a post by Janice Dorn on Buzz and banter about the history of GOOG's price movement after suffering a decline like they had yesterday. According to the post, GOOG is down 2.4% 76.9% of the time 8 days after the big drop in price. GOOG was trading around $697 when I saw the post and I decided to buy the puts. Now that I'm reading the post a little closer I"m wishing I would have sold both puts because GOOG is already down 1.9% on day 1 after the movement so there's not much left to get to 2.4%. Make sense? Mabe we'll have a weak open on Monday.
Also bought some XHB Mar 24 strike calls. I though XHB held up real well in today's tape. I'm thinking the market may sell off some more but I don't see XHB moving down too much unless we get some negative home data. I'm seeing so much chatter about home prices, I'm thinking XHB has a fairly high chance of just gapping up and running after all the general market selling is done. We'll see. JUST IN CASE, I plan to use stops on these calls. More on that later this weekend.
ReplyDeleteWhat could drive a correction? I don't know if this qualifies. I suspect these folks have good accountants, advisers and attorney's but you never know.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-19/wealthy-advised-to-sell-for-gains-before-unfriendly-2013.html
We already discussed the fiscal cliff subject here and decided it's just not gonna happen. There will be no tax increases just b/c the government falls hopelessly in debt if they don't act quickly to stop the hemorrhaging.
DeleteHard to argue with as long as rates remain in negative territory?
It qualifies. I suspect the target audience have already started following that advice.
DeleteIt really doesn't matter whether the fiscal cliff happens or not. Those with money at risk will prefer to sell now and debate later. Capital preservation.
DeleteManagua is safer than Cincinnati. With fewer cops, country spends less than 1% of GDP on it's military:
ReplyDeletehttp://static3.businessinsider.com/image/50804e5869bedde742000000-470-314/daily-reckoning.png
AGO - "BofAML opinion is not available at this time for Assured Guaranty Ltd"
ReplyDeleteAKRX - BofAML Rating Last updated 09/26/2012
ReplyDeleteBuy
10/18/12 Update:
DeleteAkorn (AKRX; $12.99; C-1-9)
Our EPS estimates for 3Q12 and 2012 are unchanged at $0.13 and $0.49,
respectively. We modestly lowered our 2013 EPS estimate by a penny to $0.69.
We are maintaining our discounted cash flow (DCF)-based price objective of $18,
which implies that the stock can trade at roughly 22x our 2014E EPS of $0.81.
TEVA - There's an open gap up from $38.20
ReplyDeleteFSYS vs WPRT - Are there any good reasons to prefer WPRT over FSYS? FSYS has been manufacturing fuel delivery systems much longer and their products are well integrated all over the place.
ReplyDeleteUGA - Why is gasoline so high, is it partly b/c refinery investment is lacking in anticipation of a switch to NG as a transportation fuel?
ReplyDeleteIMF: Austerity not to blame for slow growth in Ireland.
ReplyDeleteThey are about to start taking away my iphone money.
ReplyDeletePsst: This Tax About to Go Up for 163 Million People
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49494190
Nice while it lasted!
DeleteIf they let this tax expire, then it will be a serious motivation for Bernanke to keep buying long-term Treasuries beyond 2012, without selling any short-term securities -- he already hinted that he might do that, and given his concern about the negative impact of tax increases on the economy, he will definitely want to do something to offset it.
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ReplyDeleteIran: US and Iran agree to one-on-one nuclear talks.
ReplyDelete