The game is less than an hour away, so I'll get right to it.
Almost went long RYSIX in the last half hour. In fact, the trade was entered and in place, but I deleted it less than 5 minutes later. Why? It just seemed too easy. A ton of traders no doubt swung hard (and are smiling at late action in IBM, as well as after-hours 'resilience' in TXN). More likely, the market took shorts out of the game in the final 15 minutes- prior to resuming its downward slide on Tuesday. We'll find out tomorrow which of us played it correctly.
Silver is forming a massive H&S top.
ReplyDeletePeter Brandt
How's it going out there, I see PM's didn't take off following the debate.
ReplyDeleteConsidering we didn't close under 1425 on SPX, can we assume a run to 1475 is in the cards?
Still have half my FXI Jan 35 calls, will have to watch these for a place to stop out tomorrow. It looks like today would have been the first day for a Landry 102030 MA buy trigger though. Im not sure if Friday's drop would qualifty as a TKO.
ReplyDeleteALmost stopped out of my XHB Mar 24 strike calls. After spending time reviewing my performance for the year I've decided to do a better job of setting hard or mental stops for my option plays.
Still have RIMM shares but not too far from getting stopped out there.
Still have my full allotement of DSX, just sitting between my first sell trigger and my stop.
I would buy some AAPL calls if they didn't have two events coming up. This iPad mini better be a big hit, for some reason I'm thinking it falls short but it could be I'm not a fan of the size of the nook. The iPad to me seems like such a sweet spot.
I would say the lower MACD on the daily chart of FCX is a bad sign. I don't have any FCX now but that's my copper play.
ReplyDeleteSLV seems to be a Landry 102030 MA short candidate on any rally followed by a drop.
VECO - I suspected this one wouldn't do well, stories of LED-CVD capital equipment being stacked in Chinese warehouses and not delivered to the production floor might actually be true...
ReplyDeleteCREE - I just noticed CREE kicked azz on earnings, man this one's probably going higher?
ReplyDeleteYHOO - Pretty good reaction to earnings so far.
ReplyDeleteXPP - Barely sneezed today.
ReplyDeleteIt's now clear the market delivered a 'changeup' in the final 15 minutes of trading on Monday, with the DJIA spiking 50 points (taking out shorts and enticing longs [who may have panicked out earlier in the day] to chase)- only to resume its slide on Tuesday. A fastball across the plate is next.
ReplyDeletetof- We like the table below:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.overstock.com/Home-Garden/Keith-5-piece-Faux-Marble-Top-Table-with-Faux-Leather-Chairs-Dining-Set/5971679/product.html
However, I can't determine where the manufacturer is located. The site below indicates the manufacturer is 'HE.' Any idea what that refers to?
http://www.freshmanexperience.com/overstock--Keith_5-piece_Faux_Marble_Top_Table_with_Faux_Leather_Chairs_Dining_Set--promo_120391090
hmmm not sure. tried to find that company but couldn't
Deletehttp://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=113273-48%5B5PC%5D&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8#hl=en&client=safari&rls=en&sclient=psy-ab&q=113273-48+furniture&oq=113273-48+furniture&gs_l=serp.3...2233.3308.6.3427.10.10.0.0.0.0.102.832.8j2.10.0.les%3B..0.0...1c.1.a2Y-bzUbxz0&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&fp=e0911e75caa7989b&bpcl=35466521&biw=1614&bih=870
I found a reference to Coaster which is a manufacturer I work with. I'll see if they provide this.
Thanks. I'm just hoping it's made in Vietnam or Indonesia. Not China.
Deletevery strange to see UPS up so much on a day like this. the shippers in general are behaving well today so far...i'm assuming that reverses tho.
ReplyDeleteYeah, something's gonna reverse. An S&P close 20 points above today's bottom wouldn't surprise me.
DeleteGood numbers out of Navios sub, NMM today - bit surprised it is down over 2%, but probably market/Greek related.
DeleteEarnings season smooth as silk.
ReplyDeleteDD - Going to $44.5?
I own this dog - it is my "conservative" play on AG.
DeleteI always feel compelled to own some large caps for safety in down markets, but I really should do some analysis on my stocks to see if they really do help.
FB green.
ReplyDeleteYRCW green and looks like it wants to go higher
DeleteTalked to my daughter re FB - it is still popular amoung her crowd (the 18 - 21 group), but not as popular as it used to be and things like Instagram (owned by FB) seem to be rising.
DeleteShe said FB will always be used and that everyone still does most days, but she spends about an hour a day on it instead of the 4 or 6 she used to.
The move to mobile is very big though and some of her friends pretty much only use it on their phones, so monetization of this is a real concern/opportunity.
So, not sure what the valuation is like, but it appears there is some good revenue growth opportunities if they can figure this out like GOOG did.
BB - yeah it will be interested in what it all play out. I still think FB has an amazing opportunity with storage fees (on X # of pictures above the free space given), setting up a shopping marketplace where people can view products their friends and family like and with many other services.
Deleteha...sorry "it will be interesting to watch"
DeleteNSPH - I don't see any sellers, JMO
ReplyDelete"During last evening’s Presidential debate, I thought I heard Obama say that currencies were now more favorable for exporters than at any time since 1993. If truly that’s what he said, and it seemed he was boasting, I find it deplorable he would be proud of the collapse in the Dollar."
ReplyDeleteYeah, never mind gold is at new highs in almost every currency aside from the dollar.
Race to the bottom!
Deletewhat I found amazing (and if I were debating I would have jumped on with both feet) is Romney's statement that "Syria is Iran's route to the sea."
That's gotta be difficult since Iran and Syria don't have a common border and Iran in located on the Arabian Sea.
He qualifies as a losing contestant on "Are you smarter than a 5th grader".
INTC - Has yet to reach my $21.21 target.
ReplyDeleteOpening XLK, SMH, and SLW (29.2x, 30.4x, 39.4x)
ReplyDeleteSold those FB calls at $1.25 for a 20% gain. Bought a few of SHW puts at $1.75...$140 puts. Earnings this week.
ReplyDeleteI find these types of stocks hard to judge - is FB really worth 2 YHOO's?
DeleteNot right now, but much better growth potential, so people will pay up for that. Definitely better than a GRPN or TZOO, but long term - who knows?
NSPH - Okay, can we move on down and hit my first stink bid please?
ReplyDeleteOver slept. I might buy some energy names when I get back.
ReplyDeleteYou're starting to sound like David.
DeleteBought a smaller Canadian Auto parts maker ($3B revenue) today - MRETF.
ReplyDeleteTrading under 6 times earnings, launching a bunch of new products, well managed, leverage to the US auto replacement cycle (average car age on the road is around 12 years).
Lowest price of the year today - all the auto parts guys are down today, so nothing company specific.
To me, it seems that this selling is over the top given the news. I want to buy something on days like this and take advantage of the lower prices in case this is all we get. Could go lower and I would buy more, but things like MRETF are a good price regardless.
DeleteUSG, home builders very strong in general. Makes me nervous about SHW but the chart's internals have weakened greatly.
ReplyDeleteUS Immigration dept dropping Blackberry and buying iphones instead, 17,000 employees.
ReplyDeleteSilver - If silver's headed to the H&S neckline at $26, will gold participate?
ReplyDeleteAll the Fast Money guys are saying not to buy this pullback, so that's a good thing.
ReplyDeleteSantoli on as he's now with Yahoo and he is more posititve - like Santoli, hope he is on more rather than just the weekly Barron's column.
Always good to understand the sentiment of traders...if its too far to one side then you always make money fading it. One good example of that is YRCW. No one thinks it will go higher. Well, other than insiders and a couple of us here :)
Delete"Fast Money guys are saying not to buy this pullback"
DeleteIn that case, no doubt we'll be closing the week in positive territory.
YRCW will be mid-$8 soon, IMO.
DeleteYRCW one of the few greens on my screen today! Could be getting pulled up by UPS, by kinda says there aren't many sellers left if you have a high-risk, poor balance sheet stock not going down with the Down down over 200.
DeleteI could always add here and see if i can drive it down though...
That is, $8.8x is my guesstimate.
Delete"I could always add here and see if i can drive it down though..."
Deleteha. bring it on BB. i still have a tiny bit of cash left to put into it. been sitting in this since 9/10/12...one of my longer term holdings over the past 3 years which is pathetic.
$WTIC - "Crude Oil is completing a H&S top"
ReplyDeletePeter Brandt
Don't you just love it when the market moves against BC that suddenly it's an orchestrated take down conspiracy?
ReplyDeleteLook at the charts. Internal weakness in almost all sectors, charts turning over, MA's crossing down. Who cares what is driving it? I suspect it's all the fat cats liquidating at good prices to preserve their gains before the supposed fiscal cliff. Divs would be a big hit (I'm noticing div payers correcting across the board) and another 5% tax on cap gains is a lot of cash if you are more than a minnow.
Yo, the explanation consistently conflicts with itself.
Delete"another 5% tax on cap gains is a lot of cash if you are more than a minnow."
Sure is, multiple billions pilfered through these loopholes. Just have to wait it out and guess when they're done adjusting for change. Seems to me the current sentiment isn't predictive of a Romney presidency.
I agree, but I wonder what the affect would be? He has made no secret of not liking Bernanke. Might that end the goldrush or will his actual policies counter that? (military expenditures/actions).
DeleteWell, how does eliminating Bernanke end the "gold rush"? I don't know, doesn't the PM theme revolve around public debt having reached unsustainable levels? Is Bernanke responsible for this? I think the problem involves hubris emanating from within the capital beltway.
DeleteMy feeling is both political parties have conspired to keep kicking the can down the road for their own political interests(catering to special interest groups).
An Romney victory might bring forth honest money (Okay, I admit this seems like a huge stretch, but humor me), which might light a fire under PM's?
I wonder how many people fully comprehend the message Romney's sending when he claims China's a currency manipulator, my interpretation is that he believes the Yuan is manipulated down in reference to the dollar. Thus, a solution for ending currency manipulation might morph into a gold standard?
We're still awaiting change. How can a currency susceptible to manipulation qualify as a global reference?
Three peaks and a domed house? Discuss?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/10/three-peaks-and-a-domed-house-2012-version/
Reminds of Landry's candle critique of two birds and a dirty diaper. This on IS a actual line chart however. The question becomes, if everyone see's it, does it still play out? What is driving the pattern?
Not being ignored, dirty diapers make fantastic vegetable plant seeding beds. A great opportunity for P&G that would instantly convert me into a B&H long.
DeleteTOF -- you were speaking about double bottoms yesterday. Do you think $USD is making a double bottom?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=d1
David - I was referring to those more in reference to companies/sectors that have gone through significant downturns.
DeleteI've kinda been thinking that if the dollar moved to 82 it might be forming an H&S, but it's probably not symmetrical enough to qualify?
Delete"Aluminum-glass enclosure" - Sure to stimulate the imagination.
ReplyDeleteWhat's important is not the news, but the market reaction to the news. The "news" in this case is a significant decline in silver/gold since September 13. The "market reaction" is the fact that GDXJ is down less than SLV over this time frame. This is unprecedented! GDXJ has always led silver on the way down for as long as it was around. So I concur with Geoff's feeling this morning:
ReplyDelete"The market is moving down to the trading low that I have been discussing. That low has a high probability of marking the last great buying opportunity in the precious metals and especially the precious metal stocks. Recent strength in the miners points towards gold's bottom being just a few days away as the miners tend to lead as they have held up well."
I just picked up 20 more April $5 calls on AUMN, this time at $0.55. Placed a buy limit for 30 more such calls at $0.50.
How about putting a few bucks on a bet against CC as a test?
DeleteTransports up big. Makes you go hmmm.
ReplyDelete"We may never have to worry about oil again in our lives" US production could outstrip Saudi Arabia.
DeleteQQQQ and IWM now back to where they were yesterday at 3:00 before the end of day rampup.
DeleteGOOG and AMZN now have room for increasing tablet prices?
ReplyDeleteCould it be that the market is begging Fed for more stimulus? The Fed did say during the last meeting:
ReplyDelete"If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability."
Since Bernanke is so focused on raising asset prices (wealth effect), and the post-FOMC reaction has been that of falling asset prices (a slap in Bernanke's face), maybe the market is forcing him to do more?
I think asset prices moved up in advance of the announcement as it was expected, so the gain was pre-announcement, not after.
DeleteI don't trade S&P, and so I don't look at its chart often. It looks plain ugly -- a clear triple top at $1460 over the past month, and a break down today below the horizontal support level that appeared over the past month. Bernanke should be worried...
ReplyDeleteMaybe he's perfectly happy watching the housing market?
DeleteFB LOST .02?
ReplyDeleteWow, I do some work and now it's up 10%.
Deletewell no you have to exclude things like stock based compensation and stock based compensation related payroll taxes and income taxes...you know because those aren't REAL expenses (insert roll of the eyes).
Deleteall in all the sentiment was too negative on the stock.
Exactly. My business does REALLY well without those pesky one time items...
DeleteFB - Bound for a run straight to $45?
DeleteBWLD- Wings anyone?
ReplyDeleteDrywall instead.
DeleteMan, that's one old Tiger on TV right now.
ReplyDeleteSignificant trend?
ReplyDelete"A decisive close below 1425 would confirm the “throw-over”interpretation and set the market up to complete the wedge. A completion of the wedge would establish a target in the 1100 area."
NFLX - Ouchie.....
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteAs I was thinking about my exit strategy from AUMN, I decided that the smartest thing to do would be to start selling premium, if possible. Thus, I cancelled my sell limit orders for AUMN shares and instead placed sell limit orders for $5 calls, of which I have way too much right now. I will try to sell: 10 January $5 calls at $1.00, 10 January $5 calls at $1.65 (I originally purchased 20 January $5 calls at $1.65), 20 April $5 calls at $1.10 (purchased them today at $0.55), 30 April $5 calls at $1.80 (I purchased them yesterday at $0.60). After that, I'll start selling covered January $7.50 calls against the shares I have.
ReplyDelete