You knew it was coming. Look, if we can't rally off yesterday's oversold conditions, maybe it's about more than sentiment. On the other hand, maybe I just got faked out prior to tomorrow's rally.
I think that even with flat earnings, a lot of stocks are still so cheap that it easy to see how buying them now will look good a few years from now.
Might not be a market-wide bull market, but could be like 2000 / 2001 when there are lots of stocks that make money,even if the overall market doesn't go up.
I could see REIT's, utilities, AAPL and some other tech, some commodities, high-dividend stocks dragging the market down, but financials, industrials and many individual stocks moving upwards.
Geoff wrote yesterday: "The market is moving down to the trading low that I have been discussing. That low has a high probability of marking the last great buying opportunity in the precious metals and especially the precious metal stocks." I would like to be more specific and say that we are currently observing the last great opportunity to buy AUMN at cheap prices. With all likelihood, the 3-week sideways move we just had in AUMN marks a second higher low since the lows of May 2012 (the lows in late July formed the first set of higher lows). After the lows in late July, a higher high was made (relative to the high in early June). Each time, the thrust up from the lows was very significant. The definition of an uptrend is a series of higher lows and higher highs. The price action since May conforms to this pattern. If it continues (and I see no reason for it not to continue, given a steady increase in the AUMN production from this point forward and the steady inflow of $40B/month from the Fed into the banks, which will redirect it into risk assets), we will see a major thrust up in AUMN soon, before the end of 2012, which will take it above the September highs.
So buy your April $5 AUMN calls before the volatility explodes! I had no luck today in filling my order for 30 contracts of April $5 calls at $0.50. If this order does not get filled before the end of this week, then I guess I'll have to remain content with watching the April $5 calls I was able to purchase so far (30 contracts at $0.60 and 20 contracts at $0.55) explode to the upside. :)
evening, did nothing today but watch TBT, its moving back and forth quite a bit.
Yesterday, got stopped out of my XHB and FXI calls. Made some money on FXI, lost on XHB.
Today I sold Nov 9 strike calls against my ANR position. My JRCC shares were called away over the weekend so I'm losing some of my coal position.
Dan Niles was on CNBC saying he's long FB as of yesterday because they have a plan for making money on??? and I didn't hear the rest. He was talking to Maria and it was before fast money but I can't find the video on CNBC. I'm thinking they may not post everything.
Why are we wasting our time trying to predict the next recession? Let's say we get it right...but it doesn't happen until 2 years from now. In the meantime 1,328 stocks make monster moves and we miss them all because we're sitting in cash waiting for the next recession? Is that going to help us retire sooner?
I'd rather focus on setups
MLNX - look at that amazing rev growth...stock will rebound hard again SNSS XCO NM / EGLE / DRYS / DSX - All Shippers look awesome, Baltic Dry Index rocketing higher YOKU YRCW BVSN BAC BLDR FBN
Commodity fundammentals and technicals Signalling a major upturn.
UBS Commodity strategy turned bullish on commodities & miners for the first time in a year a little more than a month ago. We now see gathering evidence for a significant upturn. At the same time Jason Perl, UBS market timer on the multi-asset sales team sees powerful evidence in market price action to suggest that a major upturn in emerging markets, commodities and commodity currencies is underway. This call will examine the evidence from two very different disciplines; macro fundamentals and technical analysis of price action that arrive at the same conclusion; buy commodities, buy miners and buy gold.
Speakers: Julien Garran – UBS global commodity & mining strategy Jason Perl – UBS technical strategy & macro sales Date & Time: Monday 22nd October 2012
I can't really waste time second-guessing my moves. Primary task is to minimize losses, and that means taking things off quickly when I'm wrong. The market then goes on to leave me behind half the time. The other half, however, discipline saves my ---.
MLNX - I like the gap down, gives me confidence it will eventually fill.
So where are the jobs that ultimately fuel consumption of commodities and housing, can we identify and analyze those sectors for signs of life?
There must be mechanisms we can devise on our own in order to determine the short term growth outlook, ones that don't rely directly on musings of those who present a distorted picture in an effort to sell us their stocks...
Do you think it's possible oil might actually move to the $50 level Brandt has pointed out, and what would that mean for OPEC nations, would this tend to increase or decrease tensions?
Made a couple of small moves this morning. Sold my YOKU at $20.65 for a small gain. Decided to buy 22 x MLNX Nov $80 calls. I believe there is a decent chance MLNX goes back to close its gap by the Nov expiration. Take a look at that report when you get a chance. Absolutely blockbuster earnings. Sold off on fear and profit taking more than anything is my take. Cloud storage is a theme that will be strong regardless of the overall economy as companies are looking to pare down their IT staff and move everything to the cloud. MLNX makes the connectors that go into equipment used for the cloud. While I think their growth trajectory will slow I don't think they will have a material slowdown for another couple of years. I think there is still a lot more left in the growth phase of the buildout of the cloud within corporations from what I've read.
I'm convinced that this sucker will rally to $95 to $100 within a short period of time. If the market can get done with its pullback then it will rock.
It's been quite strong throughout this pullback. I think action like today is just sucking in more shorts. I believe we rally very soon. Valuation and earnings are still solid...and the US economy is doing ok.
The market always surprises. A strong start to the morning has now reversed (characteristic of bear markets, according to Landry).
(a) XLK is now trading -0.8% below my exit price near Wednesday's close. (b) SMH is still above my exit price near Wednesday's close, but not by much. And well below my exit price (for 15-20% of the position)at Wednesday's open. (c) SLW was strong this morning, but traded barely above my Wednesday pre-market price (and now well below).
I just turned on Fast Money and they had a debate on Treasurys. Rather than pay attention to any person's opinion I took a look at the longer term chart. Does that not strike you as a long term bull market that is hold on with it's fingernails before the collapse:
The 200 DMA is trying with all of its might to support it. The market has pulled back about 5% yet Treasurys continue to be weak. If this breaks down further where will the bond bulls go to? Cash?
There sure have been a lot of times it has looked like this bull market has ended, only to turn around and go higher (rates lower). Kass has been calling it for a couple of years now based on fundamentals and charts and has been very wrong.
No doubt we are close to the top in price (it can't go much higher), but the hard part will be timing this.
Big Dave says there is some big liquidation as PM's and oil are also down. Need cash? Everything goes, but especially the bigger gainers....T's too. If interest rates are going higher don't you lock in the profits and at some point go short? Add the fiscal cliff scare and the charts rolling over and it all starts looking fugly.
BB - Sorry meant to answer earlier. It probably doesn't mean much because we're so small but we're seeing solid sales. We had our best month I believe ever last month and definitely the best month of the year. We're on pace for about 15% higher sales this year than last year. We are seeing a lot of demand from small business owners opening up cafes and still seeing good demand from yogurt stores. Again, it's really not something to read into because if we get a $30k order it could make a big impact on our business.
TBT and interest rates. I don't know how they go higher when the FED wants them low. They would be higher without fed intervention but it sure looks like TBT is getting jiggy. I wish we could get a big ol flush in the market so we can start buying stuff. I'll be picking up some TBT then.
port > i kind of think that this is the "flush". think about the leverage our economy has to a rising housing market. it's exponential. if housing picks up even a few percent that is absolutely a game changer for all banks.
1. The economy improves and demand for loans increases to the point that they start bidding up rates - Good 2. People lose faith in Bernanke's ability to control this, the US$, the fiscal cliff being resolved, etc. - > Bad
Crude - one of the big goals of the Iran sanctions is to cut off their cash by convincing other countries not to buy their crude. I've read that the Saudis liked the idea too cuz they don't like Iran either.
I'm sure not everyone has complied but what do you suppose we have promised in exchange for these other countries cooperation?
WTI is the US benchmark, or it was and Brent is more related to the rest of the world.
My iCloud storage is almost full and they are asking me if I want to buy more. I didn't know I had iCloud storage until my wife did something on her phone yesterday.
Check and see what is being stored there first - perhaps you can get rid of stuff?
You can also set up a google could account for some of it if you want and move the stuff that doesn't need to be synced with the apple devices there - they also give 5 gig for free.
WHen I look at the icloud on my HP desktop, it only shows "Backups". When I select that it shows "iPhone" so i'm thinking it's ok to delete it. My wife barely turns on her iphone which was why I didn't want to get it in the first place.
YRCW earnings on Monday I believe. I suspect if it is going to go higher then they need to shake people out right before earnings. I have seen this about 1 million times with things that look like they're bottoming.
I'm noodlin over a ratio put spread in AAPL. Wonder what a low target would be?
for tomorrows expiry, the 575 puts are offered at 4.65, the 560's are bid at 2.40, a 1 x 2 would be almost costless, breakeven would be AAPL trading at 545 at the close tomorrow. that's a drop of 10.5%
I second Craig's 1056 am post. We're >3 and 1/2 years into the current 'bull.' And the fallout from the global recession is becoming evident. I think alot of 'players' have already exited, or in the process of exiting. Locking in gains is not the worst thing one can do here.
So mother in law, who worked until she was 72 and now drives a 12 yr old car and lives in a house worth about $120, runs around with some rich old ladies. Mother in law just wants to party while she can. Some, not all, of these other ladies focus on money and they might make 2 or 3 financial moves in a year. One of them told mother in law that they are selling now and will buy back in Feb. She wasn't sure if that meant these ladies will be selling for the next month or just before the election.
Looks like the move up in AUMN has begun. Before it completely runs away from me, I decided to raise my buy limit for the last bunch of April $5 calls I wanted to buy from $0.50 to $0.60 and just purchased 20 contracts of those (wanted to buy more, but the bid/ask jumped from $0.55/$0.60 to $0.60/$0.70 after 20 contracts were filled).
I'll consider the options purchased today as purely speculative, and thus I'll place a low sell limit for them, at $0.90 (for a 50% gain). My other sell limits are at $1.65 (3X the purchase price for 20 contracts) and $2.40 (4X the purchase of 30 contracts).
Really freaking pissed at this point about my inability to hold an option for more than a day. I cashed in FB calls a day early and sold SHW puts a day early.
I still believe FL is one of the best shorts out there. AMZN/Zappos will be their downfall.
i'm getting the itch to trade which isn't a good thing so I'm shutting down the computer and going to watch old movies while i still have 15 min or so left before the toddler wakes up. landry would be proud of me.
Re 3.5 years into the bull - this is a tricky 1. You can also make the case we had a bear market last year when the S&P got down 20 percent intraday. So you could see we are just barely getting into the next bull market.
That's another reason I think you have to look at individual stocks these days, not the overall market. Lots you can buy, but also quite a few that you shouldn't buy.
If the parallel holds it looks like we still have a pullback coming of maybe another 10% or so but it won't be that bad relative to 2001-2 and 2008. Ultimately the Nasdaq will rally much higher over the coming years and test those 2000 highs.
I read a while ago that it may not take the Nasdaq as long to surpass it's previous highs as technology obsoletes much more quickly than general business, so the excess capital that was deployed into technology will be gone sooner than traditional overinvestment in factories, so the rebound would come quicker (which is what is happening in these charts).
DDD and PRLB had earning surges. I watch all three for a pullback/entry point. So far no luck. I'm chicken on mo-mo. May have to wait for a real recession.
I was just reading Deron's post from this morning, seems like his approach will fail if we gap down tomorrow, his approach involves a rise to resistance at the 20SMA is where shorts will try their luck.
NATI - Not much reaction in AH to record revenue, which I think's pretty good considering the circumstances. Seeking Alpha reports only 104 people requested the transcript. Perhaps not many people understand the company and their roll in manufacturing and product development, anyway.
From CC, next Q may not be quite so good though, apparently:
"Now I would like to make some forward-looking statements. We are very concerned by the continued weakness of the Global PMI in Q3 with the average for the quarter 48.5, being the lowest since Q2 2009. Of ongoing concern is the level the new order element of the index at 48 in September. Its drop suggests that the overall index may remain well below 50 in Q4 and into 2013. We believe that this trend will restrain revenue growth in the broad test and measurement industry for the Q4.
In the past, we have also seen this sort of deterioration in the industrial economy, coupled with a weak start to the quarter can result in a delay to large orders towards the end of the quarter, especially at year-end. As a result, we are taking a conservative approach and are assuming that we will not see the normal seasonal surge in orders towards the end of the quarter. Also, as we continue to absorb the significant investments we made in 2011, we expected our year-over-year growth in non-GAAP operating expenses will BE in the low single digits in Q4."
Remember that link I posted the other day about the payroll taxes going up next year? I'm starting to see that mentioned in different places now.
I don't think it can be done but I would love to see the income or wealth profile of all the peeps with iStuff.
I'm wondering if DOW got a little too aggressive reinstating such a good divvy after Mar09, it now pays 4.32% at $29.66/share and that percentage will be a little higher tomorrow.
i'm ebarassed a bit to ask, how do i calculate AAPL's cash balance?
On CNBC, I pull up AAPL and click on the "Financials" tab The first thing that comes up is the balance sheet so I select "Annual" and I see a column for 2011 dated 9/24/2011.
Skipping to the title ASSETS in bold, I see Cash and ST INvestements at $29.468 Billion,
A few lines below that I see Other Investments for $55.618 billion so I'm guessing I would add these two together to get $85.086 billion.
Is that it? maybe prepaid's but not inventory. WHat about receivables?
From a sentiment/diabolical viewpoint it's easy to see the bull case> the market frustrates the majority.
ReplyDeleteBut from a common sense POV, I just don't see a true bull case. And earnings (for the most part) are proving that global recession 'matters.'
I think that even with flat earnings, a lot of stocks are still so cheap that it easy to see how buying them now will look good a few years from now.
DeleteMight not be a market-wide bull market, but could be like 2000 / 2001 when there are lots of stocks that make money,even if the overall market doesn't go up.
I could see REIT's, utilities, AAPL and some other tech, some commodities, high-dividend stocks dragging the market down, but financials, industrials and many individual stocks moving upwards.
RYSIX closed down -1.25%, the ----er. My YTD gains are now back at the 15% level.
ReplyDeleteWell open gaps up from months ago are still numerous.
ReplyDeleteGeoff wrote yesterday: "The market is moving down to the trading low that I have been discussing. That low has a high probability of marking the last great buying opportunity in the precious metals and especially the precious metal stocks." I would like to be more specific and say that we are currently observing the last great opportunity to buy AUMN at cheap prices. With all likelihood, the 3-week sideways move we just had in AUMN marks a second higher low since the lows of May 2012 (the lows in late July formed the first set of higher lows). After the lows in late July, a higher high was made (relative to the high in early June). Each time, the thrust up from the lows was very significant. The definition of an uptrend is a series of higher lows and higher highs. The price action since May conforms to this pattern. If it continues (and I see no reason for it not to continue, given a steady increase in the AUMN production from this point forward and the steady inflow of $40B/month from the Fed into the banks, which will redirect it into risk assets), we will see a major thrust up in AUMN soon, before the end of 2012, which will take it above the September highs.
ReplyDeleteSo buy your April $5 AUMN calls before the volatility explodes! I had no luck today in filling my order for 30 contracts of April $5 calls at $0.50. If this order does not get filled before the end of this week, then I guess I'll have to remain content with watching the April $5 calls I was able to purchase so far (30 contracts at $0.60 and 20 contracts at $0.55) explode to the upside. :)
NSC - "Norfolk Southern Sees Coal Slump Through 2013 First Half"
ReplyDeleteOkay, Not hard to imagine this corporate entity is backing the republican super PAC.
EIA electricity update scheduled for Friday(link):
ReplyDeletehttp://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/
HXM - Yep, it popped. Go figure....
ReplyDelete$COMPQ - I suppose at worst we could retest the neckline of the IH&S, ~2775?
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24COMPQ&p=W&yr=14&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42539441839&a=258677702&r=766
Not that it matters, but I think you made the right call. The election is what, 9 trading days away?
ReplyDeleteAn especially emotional election, at that.
Deleteevening, did nothing today but watch TBT, its moving back and forth quite a bit.
ReplyDeleteYesterday, got stopped out of my XHB and FXI calls. Made some money on FXI, lost on XHB.
Today I sold Nov 9 strike calls against my ANR position. My JRCC shares were called away over the weekend so I'm losing some of my coal position.
Dan Niles was on CNBC saying he's long FB as of yesterday because they have a plan for making money on??? and I didn't hear the rest. He was talking to Maria and it was before fast money but I can't find the video on CNBC. I'm thinking they may not post everything.
Why are we wasting our time trying to predict the next recession? Let's say we get it right...but it doesn't happen until 2 years from now. In the meantime 1,328 stocks make monster moves and we miss them all because we're sitting in cash waiting for the next recession? Is that going to help us retire sooner?
ReplyDeleteI'd rather focus on setups
MLNX - look at that amazing rev growth...stock will rebound hard again
SNSS
XCO
NM / EGLE / DRYS / DSX - All Shippers look awesome, Baltic Dry Index rocketing higher
YOKU
YRCW
BVSN
BAC
BLDR
FBN
FBN, if you believe in a potential turnaround, could be one of the better stocks right now...
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-sofa-view-fragile-151412460.html
How is business on your web site these days?
DeleteConference Call
ReplyDeleteTel #1-888-365-0240
passcode 924266#
is good for about 4 more days, ends on 29th.
Commodity fundammentals and technicals Signalling a major upturn.
UBS Commodity strategy turned bullish on commodities & miners for the first time in a year a little more than a month ago. We now see gathering evidence for a significant upturn. At the same time Jason Perl, UBS market timer on the multi-asset sales team sees powerful evidence in market price action to suggest that a major upturn in emerging markets, commodities and commodity currencies is underway. This call will examine the evidence from two very different disciplines; macro fundamentals and technical analysis of price action that arrive at the same conclusion; buy commodities, buy miners and buy gold.
Speakers:
Julien Garran – UBS global commodity & mining strategy
Jason Perl – UBS technical strategy & macro sales
Date & Time:
Monday 22nd October 2012
Naturally, SMH is up >1% this morning.
ReplyDeleteI can't really waste time second-guessing my moves. Primary task is to minimize losses, and that means taking things off quickly when I'm wrong. The market then goes on to leave me behind half the time. The other half, however, discipline saves my ---.
DeleteMLNX - I like the gap down, gives me confidence it will eventually fill.
ReplyDeleteSo where are the jobs that ultimately fuel consumption of commodities and housing, can we identify and analyze those sectors for signs of life?
There must be mechanisms we can devise on our own in order to determine the short term growth outlook, ones that don't rely directly on musings of those who present a distorted picture in an effort to sell us their stocks...
So now we have a surplus of crude? And the US may ultimately become the world's most prolific producer? Things change.
ReplyDeleteYep, wonder what the possibilities are for applying these new discovery and extraction technologies throughout the world?
DeleteI read somewhere where they're currently arguing about allowing it in Europe.
Do you think it's possible oil might actually move to the $50 level Brandt has pointed out, and what would that mean for OPEC nations, would this tend to increase or decrease tensions?
DeleteIt just occurred to me, perhaps low and falling oil prices are the root cause of increased middle eastern tensions?
DeleteAGO - Gap up was closed, at least that was addressed.
ReplyDeleteAnything under $14 is a good buy point in my opinion.
DeleteMade a couple of small moves this morning. Sold my YOKU at $20.65 for a small gain. Decided to buy 22 x MLNX Nov $80 calls. I believe there is a decent chance MLNX goes back to close its gap by the Nov expiration. Take a look at that report when you get a chance. Absolutely blockbuster earnings. Sold off on fear and profit taking more than anything is my take. Cloud storage is a theme that will be strong regardless of the overall economy as companies are looking to pare down their IT staff and move everything to the cloud. MLNX makes the connectors that go into equipment used for the cloud. While I think their growth trajectory will slow I don't think they will have a material slowdown for another couple of years. I think there is still a lot more left in the growth phase of the buildout of the cloud within corporations from what I've read.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a good day to buy.
DeleteI'm convinced that this sucker will rally to $95 to $100 within a short period of time. If the market can get done with its pullback then it will rock.
DeleteIt might not need to retest $73.62 but a success there might seal the deal for upside?
DeleteYRCW - Only a penny away from a new high for the week.
ReplyDeleteIt's been quite strong throughout this pullback. I think action like today is just sucking in more shorts. I believe we rally very soon. Valuation and earnings are still solid...and the US economy is doing ok.
DeleteLower oil prices will help a "little" too.
DeleteFIO - Possible retest of the $24.30 level before moving higher?
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Will she pass the $2.90 retest? My guess is no.
ReplyDeleteWill someone please fill those orders at $2.90 so we can get this over with?
DeleteThe market always surprises. A strong start to the morning has now reversed (characteristic of bear markets, according to Landry).
ReplyDelete(a) XLK is now trading -0.8% below my exit price near Wednesday's close.
(b) SMH is still above my exit price near Wednesday's close, but not by much. And well below my exit price (for 15-20% of the position)at Wednesday's open.
(c) SLW was strong this morning, but traded barely above my Wednesday pre-market price (and now well below).
Discipline has its rewards.
Ha, maybe gold and silver will lift the market?
ReplyDeleteITW - Insider transactions as reported by finviz seem to indicate limited upside expectations.
ReplyDeleteI just turned on Fast Money and they had a debate on Treasurys. Rather than pay attention to any person's opinion I took a look at the longer term chart. Does that not strike you as a long term bull market that is hold on with it's fingernails before the collapse:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TLT&p=D&b=1&g=0&i=t00404143702&r=1351182692228
The 200 DMA is trying with all of its might to support it. The market has pulled back about 5% yet Treasurys continue to be weak. If this breaks down further where will the bond bulls go to? Cash?
Yeah, good question.
DeleteThere sure have been a lot of times it has looked like this bull market has ended, only to turn around and go higher (rates lower). Kass has been calling it for a couple of years now based on fundamentals and charts and has been very wrong.
DeleteNo doubt we are close to the top in price (it can't go much higher), but the hard part will be timing this.
Big Dave says there is some big liquidation as PM's and oil are also down. Need cash? Everything goes, but especially the bigger gainers....T's too. If interest rates are going higher don't you lock in the profits and at some point go short? Add the fiscal cliff scare and the charts rolling over and it all starts looking fugly.
DeleteNG - Inventory report head fake?
ReplyDeleteHurricane Sandy...its going to be a doozy.
DeleteOh I see, good sized storm. Rain for sure, start raking leaves before they're wet.
DeleteMan, why do people keep insisting on loaning the government their money at "negative rates"?
ReplyDeleteAnd then they turn around and complain about debt levels and deficits, what a bunch of hypocrites.
Makes my head pound....
TOF, how are furniture sales on your web site doing? Are you seeing any pickup in volume?
ReplyDeleteAre you buying FBN? FBN is like the YRCW of the furniture world - the most risky, but the most upside.
BB - Sorry meant to answer earlier. It probably doesn't mean much because we're so small but we're seeing solid sales. We had our best month I believe ever last month and definitely the best month of the year. We're on pace for about 15% higher sales this year than last year. We are seeing a lot of demand from small business owners opening up cafes and still seeing good demand from yogurt stores. Again, it's really not something to read into because if we get a $30k order it could make a big impact on our business.
DeleteCWH - Good God, what a disaster....
ReplyDeleteTBT and interest rates. I don't know how they go higher when the FED wants them low. They would be higher without fed intervention but it sure looks like TBT is getting jiggy. I wish we could get a big ol flush in the market so we can start buying stuff. I'll be picking up some TBT then.
ReplyDeleteport > i kind of think that this is the "flush". think about the leverage our economy has to a rising housing market. it's exponential. if housing picks up even a few percent that is absolutely a game changer for all banks.
Deletewe have had what? 6 or 7 years of housing falling? shit even if it goes up 1% on average across the board the negative feedback loop is gone.
DeleteRates could go up for 2 reasons:
Delete1. The economy improves and demand for loans increases to the point that they start bidding up rates - Good
2. People lose faith in Bernanke's ability to control this, the US$, the fiscal cliff being resolved, etc. - > Bad
The Fed can only control rates so much.
I'm in camp #2 and I agree it's a bad thing.
DeleteCrude - one of the big goals of the Iran sanctions is to cut off their cash by convincing other countries not to buy their crude. I've read that the Saudis liked the idea too cuz they don't like Iran either.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure not everyone has complied but what do you suppose we have promised in exchange for these other countries cooperation?
WTI is the US benchmark, or it was and Brent is more related to the rest of the world.
"what do you suppose we have promised in exchange for these other countries cooperation?"
DeleteExposure to new sources of wealth?
Maybe US dollars so I suppose it makes sense to inflate away.
DeleteYeah, $USD is nearly as popular as "Dancing With The Stars".
DeleteMy iCloud storage is almost full and they are asking me if I want to buy more. I didn't know I had iCloud storage until my wife did something on her phone yesterday.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you guys think?
Check and see what is being stored there first - perhaps you can get rid of stuff?
DeleteYou can also set up a google could account for some of it if you want and move the stuff that doesn't need to be synced with the apple devices there - they also give 5 gig for free.
WHen I look at the icloud on my HP desktop, it only shows "Backups". When I select that it shows "iPhone" so i'm thinking it's ok to delete it. My wife barely turns on her iphone which was why I didn't want to get it in the first place.
DeleteI never used my old cellphone either, it was too big to lug around and the parasitic charges weren't justifiable.
DeleteGreat for social butterflies though!
Hey, and I can post on this blog while out walking my dogs.
DeleteYRCW earnings on Monday I believe. I suspect if it is going to go higher then they need to shake people out right before earnings. I have seen this about 1 million times with things that look like they're bottoming.
ReplyDeleteIf I had to bet I say we get a move lower for AAPL but much to the surprise of traders, a big move higher in the market tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteFlat yield curve killing REIT dividends, REIT portfolio rollover due to mortgage refinancings as well.
ReplyDeleteI guess the yield curve is bound to remain eternally flat.....
I'm noodlin over a ratio put spread in AAPL. Wonder what a low target would be?
ReplyDeletefor tomorrows expiry, the 575 puts are offered at 4.65, the 560's are bid at 2.40, a 1 x 2 would be almost costless, breakeven would be AAPL trading at 545 at the close tomorrow. that's a drop of 10.5%
I second Craig's 1056 am post. We're >3 and 1/2 years into the current 'bull.' And the fallout from the global recession is becoming evident. I think alot of 'players' have already exited, or in the process of exiting. Locking in gains is not the worst thing one can do here.
ReplyDeleteOn the flip side, the current "bear" has lasted 13 years. Locking in negative sentiment might not be the worst thing one can do.
DeleteAKAM - Good news didn't last as long as some buyers anticipated.
ReplyDeleteI can't believe Marketwatch is running down the odds of playing AAPL earnings. For crying out loud.
ReplyDeleteOn the flip side, the current "bear" has lasted 13 years. Locking in negative sentiment might not be the worst thing one can do.
Deletesorry replied to wrong post see above
DeleteSo mother in law, who worked until she was 72 and now drives a 12 yr old car and lives in a house worth about $120, runs around with some rich old ladies. Mother in law just wants to party while she can. Some, not all, of these other ladies focus on money and they might make 2 or 3 financial moves in a year. One of them told mother in law that they are selling now and will buy back in Feb. She wasn't sure if that meant these ladies will be selling for the next month or just before the election.
ReplyDeleteThe reverse of sell in May/buy in June. It may actually work this year.
DeleteTake that iphone away from the wife and give it to mom, spring for the full service, all bells and whistles.
DeleteThe dissapointment will be if AAPL turns out to be a nonevent.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the move up in AUMN has begun. Before it completely runs away from me, I decided to raise my buy limit for the last bunch of April $5 calls I wanted to buy from $0.50 to $0.60 and just purchased 20 contracts of those (wanted to buy more, but the bid/ask jumped from $0.55/$0.60 to $0.60/$0.70 after 20 contracts were filled).
ReplyDeleteI'll consider the options purchased today as purely speculative, and thus I'll place a low sell limit for them, at $0.90 (for a 50% gain). My other sell limits are at $1.65 (3X the purchase price for 20 contracts) and $2.40 (4X the purchase of 30 contracts).
When China sneezes.... Check this out.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/10/when-china-sneezes/
Awesome graphics, the colors are so vivid!
DeleteReally freaking pissed at this point about my inability to hold an option for more than a day. I cashed in FB calls a day early and sold SHW puts a day early.
ReplyDeleteI still believe FL is one of the best shorts out there. AMZN/Zappos will be their downfall.
APA is trading where it did, 3rd qtr 2007. That's 5 years of vibrations. I did have to use my fingers to figure out how many years that was.
ReplyDeleteYou still have fingers? Amazing! ;)
Deleteand 8, no, 9 toes
Deletenice smacking for XHB today. I say set a price alert for when it trades above $26.75 and see how it looks then.
ReplyDeletei'm getting the itch to trade which isn't a good thing so I'm shutting down the computer and going to watch old movies while i still have 15 min or so left before the toddler wakes up. landry would be proud of me.
ReplyDeleteDespite Achuthan's claim that we are in a recession right now, have you seen the recent rally in ECRI's weekly leading indicator?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businesscycle.com/
Does not look like a recession to me...
Yeah, but the recession is always just around the corner.
Deletewow. look at those earnings for STS. $0.24 and over $0.70 for the first 3 quarters of 2012. Trades at under $4. This is a $10+ stock in the making.
ReplyDeleteRe 3.5 years into the bull - this is a tricky 1. You can also make the case we had a bear market last year when the S&P got down 20 percent intraday. So you could see we are just barely getting into the next bull market.
ReplyDeleteThat's another reason I think you have to look at individual stocks these days, not the overall market. Lots you can buy, but also quite a few that you shouldn't buy.
don't quote me but we're going to be up huge tomorrow.
ReplyDeletetwo of the biggest retailers in the world (AAPL, AMZN) beat revenue estimates after hours today.
DeleteCheck out the similarity between the Nasdaq since 1999 and now and the DJIA in the 1929 to 1955 period:
ReplyDeleteNASDAQ:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EIXIC+Interactive#symbol=%5Eixic;range=19990520,20121025;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
DJIA (1930s-40s):
http://www.stockpickssystem.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/1929-stock-market-crash-stock-chart-djia.gif
If the parallel holds it looks like we still have a pullback coming of maybe another 10% or so but it won't be that bad relative to 2001-2 and 2008. Ultimately the Nasdaq will rally much higher over the coming years and test those 2000 highs.
Funny how these charts match up sometimes.
DeleteI read a while ago that it may not take the Nasdaq as long to surpass it's previous highs as technology obsoletes much more quickly than general business, so the excess capital that was deployed into technology will be gone sooner than traditional overinvestment in factories, so the rebound would come quicker (which is what is happening in these charts).
CSTR - Uh-huh, response not so good.
ReplyDeleteSSYS, DDD, PRLB all strong today.
ReplyDeleteDDD and PRLB had earning surges. I watch all three for a pullback/entry point. So far no luck. I'm chicken on mo-mo. May have to wait for a real recession.
DeletePRLB - Wow, I love stuff like that, DDD as well. I can see much higher prices on both of these assuming they're not dragged down into the muck.
DeleteI take it all back...we tank tomorrow...barring any unforeseen event out of left field.
ReplyDeleteSay what, no reason for change of heart, you pulling our leg? ;)
Deleteha yeah sorry...pulling your leg. i mean i have no clue what happens tomorrow but if it does tank it will be a buying opportunity.
DeleteI was just reading Deron's post from this morning, seems like his approach will fail if we gap down tomorrow, his approach involves a rise to resistance at the 20SMA is where shorts will try their luck.
DeleteSo risk here is less than at the 20SMA.......
NATI - Not much reaction in AH to record revenue, which I think's pretty good considering the circumstances. Seeking Alpha reports only 104 people requested the transcript. Perhaps not many people understand the company and their roll in manufacturing and product development, anyway.
ReplyDeleteFrom CC, next Q may not be quite so good though, apparently:
"Now I would like to make some forward-looking statements. We are very concerned by the continued weakness of the Global PMI in Q3 with the average for the quarter 48.5, being the lowest since Q2 2009. Of ongoing concern is the level the new order element of the index at 48 in September. Its drop suggests that the overall index may remain well below 50 in Q4 and into 2013. We believe that this trend will restrain revenue growth in the broad test and measurement industry for the Q4.
In the past, we have also seen this sort of deterioration in the industrial economy, coupled with a weak start to the quarter can result in a delay to large orders towards the end of the quarter, especially at year-end. As a result, we are taking a conservative approach and are assuming that we will not see the normal seasonal surge in orders towards the end of the quarter. Also, as we continue to absorb the significant investments we made in 2011, we expected our year-over-year growth in non-GAAP operating expenses will BE in the low single digits in Q4."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/953191-national-instruments-ceo-discusses-q3-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=1
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/national-instruments-reports-record-third-200100382.html
Remember that link I posted the other day about the payroll taxes going up next year? I'm starting to see that mentioned in different places now.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it can be done but I would love to see the income or wealth profile of all the peeps with iStuff.
I'm wondering if DOW got a little too aggressive reinstating such a good divvy after Mar09, it now pays 4.32% at $29.66/share and that percentage will be a little higher tomorrow.
Not only payroll taxes, but the R&D tax credit and I guess the capital equipment tax credit as well?
DeleteAMAT still sucking wind, I guess not much US-based semiconductor equip demand.
AMAT - Looks like a retest of $10 coming.
i'm ebarassed a bit to ask, how do i calculate AAPL's cash balance?
ReplyDeleteOn CNBC, I pull up AAPL and click on the "Financials" tab
The first thing that comes up is the balance sheet so I select "Annual" and I see a column for 2011 dated 9/24/2011.
Skipping to the title ASSETS in bold, I see Cash and ST INvestements at $29.468 Billion,
A few lines below that I see Other Investments for $55.618 billion so I'm guessing I would add these two together to get $85.086 billion.
Is that it? maybe prepaid's but not inventory. WHat about receivables?
Finviz reports $29.50/share, 937mm shares
DeleteI heard it was $120 Billion after this past quarter. just take that and divide it by total mkt cap and then multiply by $600.
DeleteThat calculation gives me $126/share
Delete$120B/937mm is 120/.937 = $128/share
DeleteCAB - Ugh, not so good.
ReplyDeletePCP - Kicked butt today, this would be a good CC to read.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/10/reduce-equity-exposure/
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete