Putting this week's selloff in perspective (from Barrons):
So the market doesn't like Democrats in general and Obama in particular -- at least initially. Stocks tend to pull back the day after the U.S. elections, but the five worst day-after hangovers since 1900 have all come after a Democrat has clinched the White House -- with none worse than the 5% drubbing after a young Illinois senator named Barack Obama was elected president in 2008. Compared to that, Wednesday's 2.4% selloff seemed almost benign. Are we finally warming to the dude?
Pinning last week's slide all on the fiscal cliff ignores the mildly conciliatory tone from both sides of the political aisle, the high-yield bond market's unruffled pulse, or how stocks had already trekked 108 sessions without a 5% pause (until now). Surely some of the selling comes with the realization that our capital-gains tax rate might never be as sweet and low as 15% ever again.
Question - does it seem like everyone is looking for yield stocks today or is it just the demographic people I talk to (most of my friends are in the 45 - 55 age)?
no argument here. what are you looking at? i'm thinking DECK is going to really heat up. winter is setting in across the country which is good for them. they got crushed by much higher prices on sheepskin and a really warm winter. i think it rallies to $50.
i've also heard from 3 separate people that housing in San Diego, Denver, and San Francisco is "doing very well". that's 3 decent sized cities with anedotal reports of solid housing. i'd have to image this should be good for economy.
'On August 28, 2012, the staff of the SEC requested information from the Company; subsequently, the Company learned that this request for information was in connection with a formal order of investigation pertaining to, among other things, the accuracy of the Company`s public disclosures. We are cooperating with the SEC staff and are in regular communication with them on this matter. As a public company, Molycorp maintains disclosure controls and procedures, as well as internal controls, and has extensive processes with respect to the documents it files with the SEC. As noted in the Company`s third quarter 2012 10-Q, the Company cannot predict the length, scope, or results of the matter or the impact, if any, on the Company`s results of operations.'
I'm inclined to agree with his comments on gold and silver. What do you guys think?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39539248/David_Stockman_I_Invest_In_Anything_Bernanke_Can_t_Destroy “I invest in anything that Bernanke can’t destroy, including gold, canned beans, bottled water and flashlight batteries," David Stockman tells Jennifer DePaul of the Fiscal Times.
I don't know, I've come to believe when BC says equities are poised to rally he actually means something more like a brief relief rally or bounce, like a dead cat bounce.
PM miners are still considerably lower(except a select few) than when he began calling for a rally two years back.
My guess is we see pressure through the end of the year depending on the political speak, last week seemed ever so slightly more upbeat to me than anticipated.
Re real estate investing, one of the companies I own in Toronto is a real estate investment firm called Tricon. They've been doing most of their investing in the US lately due to lower prices, but they are buying up single family home in the southern states and getting a 12.6% yield return from rent on these - pertty good, plus good chance of capital appreciation.
The reason i asked about dividend stocks is I wonder if we are better at looking at non-diviednd payors now as they seem out of favour, so the potential for some good buys, especially now that we are getting into tax loss selling season.
"NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) has been downgraded by TheStreet Ratings from buy to hold. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures, expanding profit margins and increase in stock price during the past year. However, as a counter to these strengths, we also find weaknesses including deteriorating net income, disappointing return on equity and feeble growth in the company's earnings per share."
DECK looks like a screaming buy. I'm on vacation til Tuesday but I might have to open a trade up in DECK. I see 50% gains in a short amount of time.
ReplyDeletePutting this week's selloff in perspective (from Barrons):
ReplyDeleteSo the market doesn't like Democrats in general and Obama in particular -- at least initially. Stocks tend to pull back the day after the U.S. elections, but the five worst day-after hangovers since 1900 have all come after a Democrat has clinched the White House -- with none worse than the 5% drubbing after a young Illinois senator named Barack Obama was elected president in 2008. Compared to that, Wednesday's 2.4% selloff seemed almost benign. Are we finally warming to the dude?
Pinning last week's slide all on the fiscal cliff ignores the mildly conciliatory tone from both sides of the political aisle, the high-yield bond market's unruffled pulse, or how stocks had already trekked 108 sessions without a 5% pause (until now). Surely some of the selling comes with the realization that our capital-gains tax rate might never be as sweet and low as 15% ever again.
Question - does it seem like everyone is looking for yield stocks today or is it just the demographic people I talk to (most of my friends are in the 45 - 55 age)?
ReplyDeleteMy demographic is the same and am hearing the same thing.
DeleteThere are plenty of yield stocks out there, what kind of yield are they looking for?
DeleteSame demographic but we're talking more about real estate as a long term investment and the potential for special dividends before year end.
DeleteIt seems to me though that you better be buying a stock for more than hopes of a special dividend.
The Roof Is On Fire, or Who Let The Dogs Out?
ReplyDeleteGold - Hmm, is gold tipping us off tonight on next week's direction?
ReplyDeleteHey Guys. Starting to get warmed up again to the grind. We should be able to make some real money going into the EOY.
ReplyDeleteno argument here. what are you looking at? i'm thinking DECK is going to really heat up. winter is setting in across the country which is good for them. they got crushed by much higher prices on sheepskin and a really warm winter. i think it rallies to $50.
Deletei've also heard from 3 separate people that housing in San Diego, Denver, and San Francisco is "doing very well". that's 3 decent sized cities with anedotal reports of solid housing. i'd have to image this should be good for economy.
MCP...
ReplyDelete'On August 28, 2012, the staff of the SEC requested information from the Company; subsequently, the Company learned that this request for information was in connection with a formal order of investigation pertaining to, among other things, the accuracy of the Company`s public disclosures. We are cooperating with the SEC staff and are in regular communication with them on this matter. As a public company, Molycorp maintains disclosure controls and procedures, as well as internal controls, and has extensive processes with respect to the documents it files with the SEC. As noted in the Company`s third quarter 2012 10-Q, the Company cannot predict the length, scope, or results of the matter or the impact, if any, on the Company`s results of operations.'
Oh, OK, thanks for clearing that up.
bill had an interesting WIR.
ReplyDeleteI'm inclined to agree with his comments on gold and silver. What do you guys think?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39539248/David_Stockman_I_Invest_In_Anything_Bernanke_Can_t_Destroy
“I invest in anything that Bernanke can’t destroy, including gold, canned beans, bottled water and flashlight batteries," David Stockman tells Jennifer DePaul of the Fiscal Times.
I only remember him mentioning the very long term trends, which we all knew anyway. What in particular caught your attention, CP?
DeleteI don't know, I've come to believe when BC says equities are poised to rally he actually means something more like a brief relief rally or bounce, like a dead cat bounce.
DeletePM miners are still considerably lower(except a select few) than when he began calling for a rally two years back.
My guess is we see pressure through the end of the year depending on the political speak, last week seemed ever so slightly more upbeat to me than anticipated.
Re real estate investing, one of the companies I own in Toronto is a real estate investment firm called Tricon. They've been doing most of their investing in the US lately due to lower prices, but they are buying up single family home in the southern states and getting a 12.6% yield return from rent on these - pertty good, plus good chance of capital appreciation.
ReplyDeleteThe reason i asked about dividend stocks is I wonder if we are better at looking at non-diviednd payors now as they seem out of favour, so the potential for some good buys, especially now that we are getting into tax loss selling season.
Added 20K shares NSPH @ 2.60.
ReplyDeleteGood work, I broke down and added @ $2.61 for another flip. Maybe $2.85
DeleteWe'll see. SQNM getting some pop today. Jeffries raises to BUY. MCP not so much...
DeleteMCP is like DMND now? LOL ;)
DeleteSD- Let's keep and eye on this one Dan Dicker likes it.
ReplyDeleteThere goes AAPL, there goes the market.
ReplyDeleteSU - Will this one eventually close that June gap up?
ReplyDeleteJPM also has this gap that needs to fill.
DeleteAGO - Downgrade this morning:
ReplyDelete"NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) has been downgraded by TheStreet Ratings from buy to hold. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures, expanding profit margins and increase in stock price during the past year. However, as a counter to these strengths, we also find weaknesses including deteriorating net income, disappointing return on equity and feeble growth in the company's earnings per share."
Thestreet ratings are useless - I never pay attention to them.
DeleteYep, bet they're just trying to guess ahead of Moody's rating.
DeleteI'm going outside, last unusual day of three in the 70's
ReplyDeleteRemember to jiggle the handle when you're done...
NSPH- Now their cutting pennies in half...I'm going outside with CP.
ReplyDeleteThanks for leaving - the market is doing much better now.
DeleteSorry. I'm back to ruin the close.
DeletePAL - Another lower low, eh?
ReplyDeleteGlad I went outdoors to enjoy the day.... ;)
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Is a potential lack of demand for NSPH's 2c19 test a partial reason for PPS weakness?:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.genomeweb.com/blog/get-your-hip-boots-plavix-cyp2c19-quagmire-has-just-gotten-thicker
I just noticed that article was from 2010, a wee bit old!
DeleteAm thinking that the weakness is due to the overall market malaise. No catalyst for NSPH. It's a slow grind up from here but steady, IMO.
Delete