I can't recall the last time the sixth sense vacillated between 'long' and 'short' the way it has the past two days. To open a position right now is to take a random step without a compass. When 'lost,' stay put.
Yes, I remember at the start of the year you were looking for a safe, reasonable return this year - so you nicely exceeded your goals.
The tough decision now is how much protecting you want to do. I think you want to just look at opportunities as they come and make decisions accordingly as you have to make money when the market gives you the chance. I try not to think about the year as a set time frame - it's one of the big advantages we have as individual investors or fund managers - not having to provide annual return reports.
Sure got FBN wrong - down 18%. Just another lesson (again) to myself to not play short term events - I generally don't do well at these and I have much better success picking stocks to hold for a year or two. Got to know how you think.
Luckily I only bough 2,000 shares, so only down about $600, but still very aggravating.
FBN - Looked like a setup to me, way too easy and obvious. High end furniture isn't FBN, if I'm not mistaken and the gap up from $1.02 needs to fill yet.
Look at insider transactions though, seems they are anticipating upside or is it just their position tiny and meaningless?
I had a friend who owned a home on the beach in Wall NJ, I think it was Wall, was their summer home which had been there for going on several generations. I'm sure it's gone now...
DECK - looks like an island reversal could be setting up. i took a closer look at the earnings report and there could potentially be some positives taken from it. they're still dealing with high sheepskin costs which caused them to raise prices...possibly beyond customer's budget. Sanuk and Teva sales grew 20%. No idea what sheepskin costs do but if they do come down then it could allow them to lower prices and increase sales. valuation is fairly cheap at about 7 or 8 times earnings. i think there's a good short term trade here on the possibility that the island reversal forms...
Quite the sheering, sheep skin not so soft. Yeah, it does look like 'bout time for some upside.
HXM - I don't have a strong feeling for this one but I've believed for a long time the US has overlooked our southern neighbors capabilities too much. What do you think of Mexican home construction?
They changed the mortgage laws here about 6 months ago and got rid of mortgages over 25 years and increased what was required to get an insured mortgage. Because of this, housing is softening without having to raise rates -> a good example of the government working together to solve a problem creatively instead of arguing about things endlessly and not really doing much like seems to happen down there.
Insurance co's will be big after Sandy. Disasters allow them to raise rates, they rose big time after Katrina. I think that will benefit LYG and also some of your other insurers BB.
I think because the market was closed Monday and Tuesday, we didn't get the typical insurance selloff which is almost always a buy once people realize what you are saying.
"Despite the current economic headwinds, we were able to increase profitability through a combination of pricing discipline, customer mix management and an unrelenting focus in the areas of safety, costs, and operational fundamentals," stated James Welch, chief executive officer of YRC Worldwide. "Since the new board of directors and management team were put into place in the third quarter of 2011, adjusted EBITDA has increased over each comparable prior year's quarter, and we have most recently generated two consecutive quarters of positive consolidated operating income. For the first time in four years, excluding second quarter of 2010, which included an $83 million non-cash reduction in equity-based compensation expense, we are reporting positive operating income in each of our subsidiaries. I am encouraged with the steady progress we've made throughout the year and remain committed to the execution of our strategy."
These guys are pretty damn close to turning a profit now...only $6 Million loss. This stock is going way higher.
My guess is you will see a shakeout which should be aggressively bought. Then it moves higher over the next 3 months in anticipation of their first quarterly net profit in years.
BB - Not sure. I didn't actually see that. Man I tell you what I think this could be a multi bagger. I just don't see how this stays down at these levels for long. They are about to turn a profit and have over $5 Billion in revenues and the market cap is under $60 Million.
At the beginning of the year, my target was to finish +7-10%. +15% exceeds. So I'm kind of in 'protect bonus' mode right now.
ReplyDeleteEvery ship found at the bottom of the sea has a chart room.
ReplyDelete2nd - Nice gain considering I don't recall your having your feet in the water more than a few hours at a time.
ReplyDeleteQLD - Last Friday's open was $54.75, today's low was $54.76
Yes, I remember at the start of the year you were looking for a safe, reasonable return this year - so you nicely exceeded your goals.
DeleteThe tough decision now is how much protecting you want to do. I think you want to just look at opportunities as they come and make decisions accordingly as you have to make money when the market gives you the chance. I try not to think about the year as a set time frame - it's one of the big advantages we have as individual investors or fund managers - not having to provide annual return reports.
Sure got FBN wrong - down 18%. Just another lesson (again) to myself to not play short term events - I generally don't do well at these and I have much better success picking stocks to hold for a year or two. Got to know how you think.
ReplyDeleteLuckily I only bough 2,000 shares, so only down about $600, but still very aggravating.
FBN - Looked like a setup to me, way too easy and obvious. High end furniture isn't FBN, if I'm not mistaken and the gap up from $1.02 needs to fill yet.
DeleteLook at insider transactions though, seems they are anticipating upside or is it just their position tiny and meaningless?
REDF - On the other hand, I probably would have followed you into or at least cheered for this one.
DeleteANR looking good.
ReplyDeleteThe NJ shore isn't looking too good though. Hurray for CO2?
DeleteSo buy an S load of ANR and then donate the proceeds to Greenpeace.
DeleteI had a friend who owned a home on the beach in Wall NJ, I think it was Wall, was their summer home which had been there for going on several generations. I'm sure it's gone now...
DeleteLong starter in IRE at $5.48.
ReplyDeleteI'll second that notion with a blind squirrel bid at $5.40
DeleteChicken closer to the edge over here.
QQQ - Seems our rendezvous with the 200SMA is complete, I guess.
ReplyDeletePeeled about 5% of position off of YRCW at $8.15 to $8.21.
ReplyDeletetypo meant to say 15%.
DeleteDont look now but FBN making a run. Could it fill the gap?
ReplyDeleteI see no gap down on this one, a 50% retrace of today's shenanigans would be nice to see.
DeleteADM - Bid on this one @ $27.03
ReplyDeleteAGO - I seriously doubt this one's gonna come down from here by any considerable amount.
ReplyDeleteDECK - looks like an island reversal could be setting up. i took a closer look at the earnings report and there could potentially be some positives taken from it. they're still dealing with high sheepskin costs which caused them to raise prices...possibly beyond customer's budget. Sanuk and Teva sales grew 20%. No idea what sheepskin costs do but if they do come down then it could allow them to lower prices and increase sales. valuation is fairly cheap at about 7 or 8 times earnings. i think there's a good short term trade here on the possibility that the island reversal forms...
ReplyDeleteQuite the sheering, sheep skin not so soft. Yeah, it does look like 'bout time for some upside.
DeleteHXM - I don't have a strong feeling for this one but I've believed for a long time the US has overlooked our southern neighbors capabilities too much. What do you think of Mexican home construction?
HII - Quite a range on this one today.
ReplyDeleteCNH - Sweet rally
ReplyDeleteIRE looks really good to me. I bought more at $5.51.
ReplyDeleteGood move, seems to be working well.
DeleteSure feels like this market is hiding bad news.
ReplyDeleteCanadian dollar "Too strong", cannot raise rates to rein in hot real estate else GDP will suffer further.
ReplyDeleteThey changed the mortgage laws here about 6 months ago and got rid of mortgages over 25 years and increased what was required to get an insured mortgage. Because of this, housing is softening without having to raise rates -> a good example of the government working together to solve a problem creatively instead of arguing about things endlessly and not really doing much like seems to happen down there.
Delete"arguing about things endlessly and not really doing much"
DeleteOh boy you got that right. Special interest groups call the shots here unfortunately, all else is fluff, BS and excuse.
Spain - No bailout request till after US election?
ReplyDeleteNot even a teenager yet.....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.eltonfan.net/cgi-bin/news/viewnews.cgi?id=EFVEZVFkZAPZwxcLtW&style=Default+News+Style&tmpl=viewnews
Great trade on YRCW, TOF! You nailed that one! I would have followed you into it if all my money were not tied up in AUMN...
ReplyDeleteLYG (lloyds) up almost 8% today on better earnings - it appears like banking in the UK is improving, so IRE would also benefit.
ReplyDeleteIRE sure looks like a big winner. I think it will eclipse it's highs from earlier in the year. That's a 50%+ gain from here.
DeleteNSPH - Quite the whoosh of folks lining up to buy this one, LOL.
ReplyDeleteInsurance co's will be big after Sandy. Disasters allow them to raise rates, they rose big time after Katrina. I think that will benefit LYG and also some of your other insurers BB.
ReplyDeleteI think because the market was closed Monday and Tuesday, we didn't get the typical insurance selloff which is almost always a buy once people realize what you are saying.
DeleteCADC shipping concrete to Jersey?
ReplyDeleteHow about those rebuilding the beaches, homes, infrastructure, equipment that needs replacement?
DeleteLumber roared higher.
http://www.proformative.com/news/1492484/financial-forecasting-should-consider-surging-sp-500-stocks
ReplyDeleteAMC... http://www.benzinga.com/news/12/11/3049796/fda-designates-nanospheres-bloodstream-infection-test-moderate-complexity
ReplyDelete"Despite the current economic headwinds, we were able to increase profitability through a combination of pricing discipline, customer mix management and an unrelenting focus in the areas of safety, costs, and operational fundamentals," stated James Welch, chief executive officer of YRC Worldwide. "Since the new board of directors and management team were put into place in the third quarter of 2011, adjusted EBITDA has increased over each comparable prior year's quarter, and we have most recently generated two consecutive quarters of positive consolidated operating income. For the first time in four years, excluding second quarter of 2010, which included an $83 million non-cash reduction in equity-based compensation expense, we are reporting positive operating income in each of our subsidiaries. I am encouraged with the steady progress we've made throughout the year and remain committed to the execution of our strategy."
ReplyDeleteThese guys are pretty damn close to turning a profit now...only $6 Million loss. This stock is going way higher.
My guess is you will see a shakeout which should be aggressively bought. Then it moves higher over the next 3 months in anticipation of their first quarterly net profit in years.
DeleteInterseting. Thanks for keeping us up to date.
DeleteDid you understand how their financial report showed Net Earnings of $3.0 million turning into a diluted Loss Per Share of -$4.30?
DeleteStrange...
Man, you could drive a truck through the spread right now. This thing just doesn't trade at all. Even after earnings.
DeleteBB - Not sure. I didn't actually see that. Man I tell you what I think this could be a multi bagger. I just don't see how this stays down at these levels for long. They are about to turn a profit and have over $5 Billion in revenues and the market cap is under $60 Million.
DeleteGood employment report lifting the dollar?
ReplyDelete1430 - Right through 1430 resistance, but will it hold? My guess is it should, but you know how that goes.
ReplyDeleteANR - Well, you guys nailed this one.
ReplyDeleteAGO - In @ $13.73 Oops now $13.64, is the bottom dropping out?
ReplyDeleteMUX - Back to $3 soon?
ReplyDelete