I hope so. Looking to deploy the rest of my cash. Just got home from vacation. I bought a small amount of DECK yesterday and will add more soon. I have been much more successful lately when I buy stocks in piecemeal because of the constant gyrations. I am also looking closely at Z.
Z is a favorite amongst anyone looking for a home or rental property. It's a really good site. Valuation is kind of whacky but it's extremely oversold and due for a bounce.
If we get a rally to 1386 /ES how many people will believe in it? none. that's why we go higher. If we drop below recent lows and spike lower how many people will be convinced we're going much lower? lots. that's why we go higher.
Everything, individual stocks and indices have a ton of overhead. If you bought anywhere above here and you are losing $$$ it's human nature to sell into any rally. So I don't go with the unexpected. We rally to test the 200 dma then selling takes over again. But you know, it's like big Dave sez: "One day at a time".
Thanks god I took some money off the board yesterday with NSPH. Given the conference yesterday and the earnings call mention of 'additional funding' it looks like traders are saying dilution. I also scanned the transcript yesterday and it seemed like they were saying B/E is $74M/year, which seemed twice as much as I thought.
Mark - I haven't read it but I did notice that their revs were lower than I thought they would be given how many placed systems are in their network. Most of their revs going forward will come from the tests run on the systems so it would be good to see evidence of a lot of tests being run. Perhaps the new customers will only be using it for the Sepsis blood test but my thinking is still that the sepsis test will open the door to a lot of hospitals / clinics and then as new tests get approved on the system they will start generating more revs. I still think $2.40 is a line in the sand for the stock, which is the secondary price. I could see it testing that level again. But this is a story that should play out over a number of years. I don't think the rev ramp will start until 2013/2014. Given that there's probably a good chance they will need more money. It all depends on what your holding period is. Do you like it long term? Right now this market is allowing multiple entry points on stocks with solid long term fundamentals.
Yeah, it's pretty strange when in one section of the transcript he seems to be saying there's sufficient cash to take company through to profitability and in another section he seems to be talking about needing to raise cash.
Long Z at $24.00. RSI (7) was down at 5 which is one of the lowest I've ever seen. Almost ever time it will rally substantially within a couple of weeks.
Interestingly one of the strongest stocks on my board is YRCW. It is actually up about 5% since the market peaked in mid September. I'm fully aware I just jinxed it.
weird trading...VIX basically flat while market is down 7% from highs. Today oil is up and copper is basically flat. Silver and gold have rallied recently and the rally in both of those pre-dated a rally in the S&P back in August. Economic reports have been better than estimates by about 2/3 over the past few weeks. The earnings reports have been about 60% better than estimates. I still call shenanigans on this pullback.
Based on current EPS of $101.3 from Standard & Poors, the S&P 500 today is trading at 13.5 times earnings. Not expensive enough to support a crash. Longer term I see no real reason to worry about the markets. I think the global economy (Europe in particular) and housing in the US will pick up again some time over the next few years and will provide a good amount of support for higher earnings. Consider if earnings grow 6.86% per year over the next 5 years (this is the rate of growth over the past 30 years) then the S&P earnings will be $141. If that happens the odds that the market is willing to pay 16 times earnings is probably decent. That would equate to a S&P of 2,260.
Another stock which is doing well since the mid-Nov peak is insurer NWLI up a little more than 5% as well.
This is one of the cheapest, well-run companies in the market with a P/E of 5.5, P/B of 37%, consistently profitable, very safe, conservative balance sheet, but on the downside a small yield and management who doesn't worry about the share price.
Anyhow, good results yet again this quarter have it moving up in a declining market and it is approaching $150 for the 4th time (and people say you don't have quadruple tops).
Maybe we get the breakout this time. It's still my 2nd largest position.
The better question is why aren't they buying back shares at such a low price and the reason is that the 77 year old CEO is an old-school guy and thinks stock splits and buy-backs are "overly promotional".
One of the guys on Yahoo Messanger claims to have talked to a number of the board members and they are all on board for doing more for the stock, but until the CEO relinquishes control, nothing will happen other than the business continuing to be run well.
I did buy a small position in USO Jan 32 calls based on the Isralies/Hamas actions. I will probably just let these calls expire if the price heads south. I'll sell these calls if crude prices stay flat through the end of the week.
Some key quotes from today's release of FOMC minutes:
"Inflation rose recently because of a temporary run-up in energy prices. However, longer-term inflation expectations were stable, and over the medium run, inflation was anticipated to run at or below the Committee's 2 percent objective."
"In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, Committee members generally agreed that their overall assessments of the economic outlook were little changed since their previous meeting. Accordingly, all but one member judged that maintaining the current, highly accommodative stance of monetary policy was warranted in order to foster a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. The Committee judged that continuing both the purchases of MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month and the existing program to extend the average maturity of its Treasury securities holdings remained appropriate."
"Looking ahead, a number of participants indicated that additional asset purchases would likely be appropriate next year after the conclusion of the maturity extension program in order to achieve a substantial improvement in the labor market."
So I guess we should be looking forward to some interesting announcement during the December meeting...
My guess is this continued drastic corrective action from the FED does not create confidence concerning the economy and is considered by many as reckless as the program could and no doubt will create "unintended" consequence?
Fiscal precipice? Fiscal drop off? Fiscal waterfall? Fiscal cliff....ah, there it is.
Market down? Was it valuations or the Prez talking? I repeat....fear of the fiscal thingy. 4x more taxes than cuts (for those making 200K/250K for couples).
David's SORL one of the few greens still today - good earnings report and stock still only at a 3.5 P/E, assuming you can believe their accounting and there really haven't been any Chinese fraud scandals lately that I can think of.
Busy day today. Added more DECK at the close at $29.7X, bought SSO. Now about 92% long. Just looking for one final whoosh down to add the rest little bit.
I hope this is the final test of my stamina with AUMN. I have just requested $22K in balance transfer checks from two credit cards, which should arrive next week. At that point, July options should start trading on AUMN, and if AUMN is still under $3.82, then I'll start buying lots of July $2.50 calls -- turning a crisis into an opportunity. :)
Well, Obama is speaking tomorrow at 1:30 - that's usually good for at least 100 points down.
ReplyDeleteI hope so. Looking to deploy the rest of my cash. Just got home from vacation. I bought a small amount of DECK yesterday and will add more soon. I have been much more successful lately when I buy stocks in piecemeal because of the constant gyrations. I am also looking closely at Z.
ReplyDeleteZ...wow, that is interesting.
DeleteZ - Is this the one and only that shares foreclosure listings at no charge?
DeleteThere's just one, I forgot which one it was.
Z is a favorite amongst anyone looking for a home or rental property. It's a really good site. Valuation is kind of whacky but it's extremely oversold and due for a bounce.
DeleteNSPH - Participated in today's Lazard Capital conference; transcript:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/1003641-nanosphere-s-management-presents-at-lazard-capital-markets-healthcare-conference-transcript?part=single
CSCO will affect the Nasdaq, and tech leads?
ReplyDeleteWhen do the armed forces begin rolling out their new (steamy) recruiting campaign?
If we get a rally to 1386 /ES how many people will believe in it? none. that's why we go higher. If we drop below recent lows and spike lower how many people will be convinced we're going much lower? lots. that's why we go higher.
ReplyDeleteYeah, where will we be by the drop dead date higher or lower? I'm half expecting higher and then sell the news?
DeleteQQQ - There is a recent gap down in this one that needs to fill, maybe we do rally into year end....
DeleteEverything, individual stocks and indices have a ton of overhead. If you bought anywhere above here and you are losing $$$ it's human nature to sell into any rally. So I don't go with the unexpected. We rally to test the 200 dma then selling takes over again. But you know, it's like big Dave sez: "One day at a time".
DeleteUNG/BOIL - 50SMA held nicely
ReplyDeleteMSFT(y) Oh jeeze, what a mess.
ReplyDeleteYeah, but CSCO did well. Let's see how it trades tomorrow...Better than NSPH I hope!
DeleteI'm not sure what to think of NSPH.... Other than I shoulda unloaded some early this morning.
DeleteCLNE - "GE Makes Deal With Clean Energy Over Natgas Equipment"
ReplyDeleteWHR - Sure makes me feel sick to think I'm holding stuff like NSPH while WHR goes on a tear like it has.
ReplyDeleteHolly Chit. Look at the last 2 earnings day reactions to INFA. Hint...look for the gaps.
ReplyDeleteI see a gap down from ~$51, do ya think it's good for it?
DeleteI'll ask JB. I know he thinks it's a B/O target.
DeleteCan VMW really have 10 cash/share?
ReplyDeleteFIO - I see this one did finally close that gap up...
ReplyDeleteYep...JRCC, now that was fun. Please keep all arms and legs in the vehicle at all times!
DeleteAll right guys. I'm beat. At the open...I hope.
Jesse still buying JRCC?
DeleteANR needs to make a run this week to close above the 10 WMA. If so this could be nothing more than a test of the line in the sand.
ReplyDeleteYRCW made a test of the 10 WMA last week and bounced hard.
ANR - Looks like the 50SMA has failed to prove support. That might be temporary, as those who were counting on a Romney victory are done fleeing ship?
DeleteANF this morning - wow! May bode well for DECK.
ReplyDeleteSeems to be already, this could be a good day in general as a result.
DeleteHopefully...I managed to get a little more DECK at $30.2. I think the cold weather will at least change sentiment a bit. That's a start.
DeleteSQNM - Didn't think it'd hold $4 long. Next pullback should be buying op, test 50SMA maybe?
ReplyDeleteFB- Should have taken that one. Crap, I knew it.
ReplyDeleteThanks god I took some money off the board yesterday with NSPH. Given the conference yesterday and the earnings call mention of 'additional funding' it looks like traders are saying dilution. I also scanned the transcript yesterday and it seemed like they were saying B/E is $74M/year, which seemed twice as much as I thought.
TOF- Have you read it?
Mark - I haven't read it but I did notice that their revs were lower than I thought they would be given how many placed systems are in their network. Most of their revs going forward will come from the tests run on the systems so it would be good to see evidence of a lot of tests being run. Perhaps the new customers will only be using it for the Sepsis blood test but my thinking is still that the sepsis test will open the door to a lot of hospitals / clinics and then as new tests get approved on the system they will start generating more revs. I still think $2.40 is a line in the sand for the stock, which is the secondary price. I could see it testing that level again. But this is a story that should play out over a number of years. I don't think the rev ramp will start until 2013/2014. Given that there's probably a good chance they will need more money. It all depends on what your holding period is. Do you like it long term? Right now this market is allowing multiple entry points on stocks with solid long term fundamentals.
DeleteYeah, it's pretty strange when in one section of the transcript he seems to be saying there's sufficient cash to take company through to profitability and in another section he seems to be talking about needing to raise cash.
DeleteGuess which way benefit of the doubt leans?
SVM - Slumping here ahead of earnings, wonder if snow in China is the culprit?
ReplyDeleteMUX - Even the mighty MUX is testing the 200SMA
ReplyDeleteHate to say it, but I saw that coming a mile away- as soon as I read multiple posts in the Cara blog re opening large positions around 4.
DeleteANF - Will this one close the May gap down soon?
ReplyDeleteOr perhaps like everything else it closes the gap up from today...
DeleteAnd away we go..........
ReplyDeleteLong Z at $24.00. RSI (7) was down at 5 which is one of the lowest I've ever seen. Almost ever time it will rally substantially within a couple of weeks.
ReplyDeleteTVIX - Regained it's early loss, LOL!
ReplyDeleteInterestingly one of the strongest stocks on my board is YRCW. It is actually up about 5% since the market peaked in mid September. I'm fully aware I just jinxed it.
ReplyDeleteRSI (14) / RSI (7) on overall market is about as low as it was in June 2012 and August 2011.
ReplyDeleteInteresting that the VIX hasn't really supported the bearish trading.
Deleteweird trading...VIX basically flat while market is down 7% from highs. Today oil is up and copper is basically flat. Silver and gold have rallied recently and the rally in both of those pre-dated a rally in the S&P back in August. Economic reports have been better than estimates by about 2/3 over the past few weeks. The earnings reports have been about 60% better than estimates. I still call shenanigans on this pullback.
Delete"Interesting that the VIX hasn't really supported the bearish trading. "
DeleteI would've noticed if it weren't for the champagne bottles strewn all about.
Based on current EPS of $101.3 from Standard & Poors, the S&P 500 today is trading at 13.5 times earnings. Not expensive enough to support a crash. Longer term I see no real reason to worry about the markets. I think the global economy (Europe in particular) and housing in the US will pick up again some time over the next few years and will provide a good amount of support for higher earnings. Consider if earnings grow 6.86% per year over the next 5 years (this is the rate of growth over the past 30 years) then the S&P earnings will be $141. If that happens the odds that the market is willing to pay 16 times earnings is probably decent. That would equate to a S&P of 2,260.
DeleteAdded Z at $24.10. Full position.
ReplyDeleteGood gosh, RSI(7) on that is less than 5 now...
DeleteAnother stock which is doing well since the mid-Nov peak is insurer NWLI up a little more than 5% as well.
ReplyDeleteThis is one of the cheapest, well-run companies in the market with a P/E of 5.5, P/B of 37%, consistently profitable, very safe, conservative balance sheet, but on the downside a small yield and management who doesn't worry about the share price.
Anyhow, good results yet again this quarter have it moving up in a declining market and it is approaching $150 for the 4th time (and people say you don't have quadruple tops).
Maybe we get the breakout this time. It's still my 2nd largest position.
Great long term chart...definitely looks like it got a little bubbly in 2007 but it is continuing on its longer term trend higher:
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NWLI+Interactive#symbol=nwli;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Wow. Book value is $376/share and that increased $10/share in the past quarter. Very impressive.
DeleteVery interesting chart to go along with financial metrics, volume seems to have dropped off here slightly though.
DeleteThere must be a good explanation for why this stock hasn't gone through a forward split?
The better question is why aren't they buying back shares at such a low price and the reason is that the 77 year old CEO is an old-school guy and thinks stock splits and buy-backs are "overly promotional".
DeleteOne of the guys on Yahoo Messanger claims to have talked to a number of the board members and they are all on board for doing more for the stock, but until the CEO relinquishes control, nothing will happen other than the business continuing to be run well.
FB - Looks like BF(Bull flag)
ReplyDeleteGGB - Just another $0.50 and she's in my target area.
ReplyDeleteWPRT - Failed to break out of nasty channel of doom.
ReplyDeleteAre we done loading up on bear fuel?
ReplyDeleteNice bottoming tail hammer forming in Z today. Could be a powerful move higher from some of the most deeply oversold moves I've seen in a while.
ReplyDeleteAnyone short that thing needs serious personal protective equipment(PPE).
Deletehmmmm, I just heard the pres mention the C word, COMPROMISE. just bot 400 SSO for the c word, need to figure out a stop in case it really means Crap.
ReplyDeletefollowup, using today's intraday low for a stop. its just a trade, not a passion.
DeleteA trade like that classifies as a labor of love! ;)
DeleteNFX - I see a target of $24.56, which this one has hit, any thoughts?
ReplyDeleteI can imagine $50 oil perhaps, but probably not as long as Israel is kicking up sand like they were today.
Deletethey are coming to get me
ReplyDeleteuggg, they got me, that was fast, I had used 55.04 as my stop. Think I'll go watch an old classic movie now.
DeletePAL - Another low, $1.30 this time....
ReplyDeleteA burdensome labor of love for longs.
I did buy a small position in USO Jan 32 calls based on the Isralies/Hamas actions. I will probably just let these calls expire if the price heads south. I'll sell these calls if crude prices stay flat through the end of the week.
ReplyDeleteAGO - Only another $0.72 centavos from preliminary target.
ReplyDeleteSome key quotes from today's release of FOMC minutes:
ReplyDelete"Inflation rose recently because of a temporary run-up in energy prices. However, longer-term inflation expectations were stable, and over the medium run, inflation was anticipated to run at or below the Committee's 2 percent objective."
"In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, Committee members generally agreed that their overall assessments of the economic outlook were little changed since their previous meeting. Accordingly, all but one member judged that maintaining the current, highly accommodative stance of monetary policy was warranted in order to foster a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. The Committee judged that continuing both the purchases of MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month and the existing program to extend the average maturity of its Treasury securities holdings remained appropriate."
"Looking ahead, a number of participants indicated that additional asset purchases would likely be appropriate next year after the conclusion of the maturity extension program in order to achieve a substantial improvement in the labor market."
So I guess we should be looking forward to some interesting announcement during the December meeting...
The analysts seem to agree with my take:
Deletehttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-11-14/fed-minutes-suggest-new-bond-buying-plan-is-likely
So why is pushing the market down today???
"purchases of MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month"
DeleteThat was a nail in today's coffin for NLY, not sure if also true for AGO.
"So why is pushing the market down today???"
DeleteMy guess is this continued drastic corrective action from the FED does not create confidence concerning the economy and is considered by many as reckless as the program could and no doubt will create "unintended" consequence?
What CP said.
DeleteBUSE - Here's a bank for ya....
ReplyDeleteFiscal precipice?
ReplyDeleteFiscal drop off?
Fiscal waterfall?
Fiscal cliff....ah, there it is.
Market down? Was it valuations or the Prez talking?
I repeat....fear of the fiscal thingy. 4x more taxes than cuts (for those making 200K/250K for couples).
Physical Cliff!
DeleteCodeword: "Girlfriend"
DeleteIt's turning out that way, isn't it?
DeleteI'm keeping a lot of dry powder. At some point this cliff deal is going to end and I plan on being ready at the bottom.
WPRT - Selling exhaustion at today's low?
ReplyDeleteGold - Is gold halted, it hasn't budged all day long....
ReplyDeleteIf the DJIA dives -250+ points, it's a whoosh and I plan to open a few positions. O/w, for me the risk isn't worth the potential reward.
ReplyDeleteAs for FB, all I can say is WTF. Insiders unloading today must be high-fiving their spouses/significant others.
ReplyDeleteWow - 10 year back under 1.60% today. People sure seem fast to jump back into fear mode.
ReplyDeleteDavid's SORL one of the few greens still today - good earnings report and stock still only at a 3.5 P/E, assuming you can believe their accounting and there really haven't been any Chinese fraud scandals lately that I can think of.
ReplyDeleteCLNE showed signs of life, FSYS didn't do too badly.
DeleteF'ing crazy. Sold one of the dope stocks for 23% gain. Wish I had a kilo of those.
ReplyDeleteAdded some YRCW.
Far out! ;)
DeleteBusy day today. Added more DECK at the close at $29.7X, bought SSO. Now about 92% long. Just looking for one final whoosh down to add the rest little bit.
ReplyDeleteI hope this is the final test of my stamina with AUMN. I have just requested $22K in balance transfer checks from two credit cards, which should arrive next week. At that point, July options should start trading on AUMN, and if AUMN is still under $3.82, then I'll start buying lots of July $2.50 calls -- turning a crisis into an opportunity. :)
ReplyDeleteMDW - We're down to $1.30 again folks, any takers here?
ReplyDeleteFRO - Okay, which one of you guys ran this thing up today?
ReplyDeleteGGN - Oh no, Mr. Bill!
ReplyDeleteQLD - Just another buck and some change to go till the $48.49 gap up is closed.
ReplyDeleteFeels like shooting fish in a barrel, can't believe this one's coming to me as suspected.
DMND - Time to buy now?
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete