My favorite verse in the song:
And the only sound that’s left
After the ambulances go
Is Cinderella sweeping up
On Desolation Row
I can’t say for sure whether the ambulances have all gone, but I’m picking up QQQ (Nasdaq 100)/ GDXJ (junior miners)/ BAC here @ 61.8x/ 21.1x/ 9.0x, and adding RYSPX (Rydex S&P 500) + RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) at the close.
I mentioned it on the other post...I think a logical target on this rally is all the way back up to the 50 DMA. Hard to believe I know but it's falling now so give it maybe 7 days or so and I think it could go to 1,420ish. Call it the Thanksgiving Day rally or whatever, but that seems like a logical spot to rally to. I think we could see a nasty drop after that but I still think we have higher highs in store maybe in Q1 barring world war III.
ReplyDeleteThe reason I think this is all because of one stock: Apple. If it's still in a bull market no way they let it go lower than $522 (for now). They will defend it (and therefore the market).
ReplyDeleteLead post modified. I was unable to make the comments under the lead post earlier due to an 'incompatible browser' notice from Google, so I added them to yesterday's post instead.
ReplyDelete2nd - I think this is going to be another great trade for you. Look at the lows on AAPL. $522.6. Look at the lows from 5/18: $522.18. If this is at least a short term bottom you should see AAPL jump at least $10 tomorrow and race higher. A close of +$30 is in the cards. THe market could rally hard if this happens. All on Op Ex. We shall see.
DeleteI think the official beginning of talks between Obama and Congress on Friday may well prove more 'positive' than the markets expect.
DeleteWhether or not we're in a downtrend, the indexes never move in a straight line.
ReplyDeleteBuying GDXJ is a no brainer now -- the drop over the past 2 days has been vicious, and it happened with gold/silver prices staying flat over these 2 days!
DeleteNow, supposedly the strongest stocks lead the rebound, right? Well, guess which miner was the strongest over the past 2 days, barely budging despite GDXJ being down 9%? You guessed it right -- AUMN! The time to buy it is now.
DeleteBillySundance decided to comment on my latest SeekingAlpha article about AUMN, and he made a good point saying that those who got "units" during the secondary AUMN offering at $5.75 could have easily decided to sell the shares right away in the open market (for as close to $5.75 as possible) and just keep the warrants they got with the offering for free!
If that was the cause of the insane selling in AUMN over the past 2 months, then that selling seems to be over now, and all you lucky bastards (who have not been buying AUMN on the way down) can buy it at THE bottom now...
David - I feel like I'm at a car dealership.
DeleteThere is a difference in motivation, though. They make a commission on their sales, but I get nothing if you buy AUMN except the pleasure of knowing that I helped you make money...
DeleteThree reasons we may not have seen the bottom yet. Not that anything moves in a straight line, but it's a choppy ride....
ReplyDeletehttp://bloom.bg/W9UxSm
THE bottom? No, that's a long ways down.
DeleteGetting in on the high floor?
ReplyDeleteI think the weed stocks are on the move.... Remember, I live in a "legal" state now, even though I voted like an old republican.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/11/73-think-medical-marijuana-should-be-legal/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29
AAPL- Back to the May low of 522 almost to the penny. But damn, look at the relative position to the moving averages then and now.
ReplyDeleteIt definitely doesn't appear to be capitulation which is what you like to see at bottoms. However, I see pretty drastic drops without a bounce to be seen and I see lots of traders getting more bearish / cautious / skeptical. Perhaps the setup is a drop below the $522 level tomorrow with a rally and then a few more attempts at $522...maybe a close below it to suck people in thinking Monday is a crash scenario.
DeleteI like that take. It's always best if it's an intra-day reversal too. Forces you to make the call quickly.
DeleteI hated AAPL for going up so much and I hate it even more for going down.
DeleteSo I figure they have $121.2 bill in cash and cash equivalents,
From Yahoo Finance balance sheet, using $10.7 bil Cash and Cash Equiv, $18.3 bill in Short Term Invest, $92.1 bil in Long Term Invest, that's a total of $121.2 bil which gives me about $128 per share in cash which is roughly 25% of the stock price. That seems pretty good and it seems pretty likely to go up over the next quarter.
Even if the other guys are catching up it seems AAPL is going to be making lots of cash.
"pretty likely to go up" - I'm talking about AAPL's cash balance.
DeleteWe know.
DeleteI am working on my better communication skills.
DeleteWhat the hell got into Japan over the past two days?
ReplyDeletejesse likes Greece and who am I to argue with Jesse? I'm sure you guys have posted this before but I have a horrible memory. Is GREK the best way to play it?
ReplyDeletePort > GREK and NBG. If Greece is to follow just about every single other playbook of a major bottom after a huge multi year downturn then it needs to have a significantly pullback that will mark it's first higher low sometime within the next couple of months. Typically the bottoming process takes 6 months or so and that would put it around Dec / Jan. Thats when I would consider going balls to the wall long on GREK. The other sector setting up like this is the coal sector....oh and EWP/EWI. Nat Gas just went through that process and I believe YRCW is setting up just like that as well. Shit so is FSLR (wait for another major pullback), WFR, the dry bulk shippers and NOK. Lots of companies/sectors setting up for major reversals. The smart money in my opinion shifted out of tech and will be shifting into these sectors. If you want to take on risk I'd recommend studying Nat Gas and just about every other stock/sector over the past 10 years that went through a major reversal to see how they traded, then split up your money between each of the above (GREK, EWP, EWI, YRCW, NOK, WFR, ANR, FSLR) - keeping in mind to buy on the 1st major pullback that creates a higher low - and let it ride. You'll probably outperform just about everything.
DeleteDodd Frank is giving all of our back office folk heart burn. There are a lot of unanswered questions and there seems to be a power struggle going on between the CFTC and FERC. My boss told me I should take the series 7 exam. She's thinking that may be required to execute financial swaps in the future. I'm already having a hard time with 5th grade math, now I have to read stuff too.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what to think of this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/wall-street-s-biggest-bear-is-getting-bullish-V1JpE0GlSeaCmt4_N5tRPg.html
My biggest fear is that S&P 500 rallies over the next month. That would significantly reduce the pressure on Bernanke to announce an unsterilized continuation to Operation Twist. On the other hand, if S&P declines further, then Big Ben, who is SO interested in raising asset prices in order to stimulate consumption, will feel that his QE3 was WAY too small and he will not only announce an unsterilized continuation to OpTwist, but he might also increase the amount of monthly MBS purchases. So the REAL game will start in mid-December, after the results of the Dec 12 FOMC are announced and the fiscal cliff issued will just get resolved. Until then, I want to see more downside in S&P and gold (so as to give Ben a feeling that inflation is REALLY going down -- they have already stated in the latest minutes that inflation was below their 2% target).
ReplyDeleteAAPL's big problem is that their margins are so high and at a record for them and they are not sustainable in the long run, in my opinion. That means that they need sales growth to overcome margin losses, which will be very difficult to do without losing their cachet.
ReplyDeleteIn England (and I'm sure soon here) you can buy a reasonable tablet for $40. Sure, Apple's products deserve a premium and they have a better camera and screen resolution and their cloud, etc., but at 15 times the price, they will lose sales and be either forced to drop prices or sales.
The problem with a turnaround today is you don't know if it is because of prices have gotten too low and should be rising or if it is just due to the way option expiration is falling.
ReplyDeleteBut Bespoke saying today all sectors are more than 2 standard deviations below their 50 day moving averages, so it shouldn't take much to get a rally going here. Especially if good news leaks out of Obama's meeting.
Deletehttp://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/11/15/bespokes-sector-snapshot.html
My daughter was looking to buy a Canon zoom lens for Christmas and found it at Best Buy. She then went onto Amazon and found it for $100 less. She printed off the Amazon price and took it it. They said that was less than their cost, but gave it to her for the Amazon price minus 10%.
ReplyDeleteSo, 2 points. (1) If you're shopping for stuff like this, Amazon is a great way to leverage discounts and (2) sure wouldn't touch Best Buy or related stocks at this time.
Man, it's slow out there. Only 2 trades on MITK so far.
ReplyDeleteAAPL watch 516
ReplyDeleteThe HEK/WPRT/CLNE trade was short lived.
ReplyDeleteEnphase Energy (ENPH) today announced that CertainTeed has chosen Enphase as its exclusive inverter partner for the new Solstice™ AC Solar Roofing System after a thorough competitive review. CertainTeed is one of the leading building materials manufacturers with more than 6,000 employees and a wide customer base of roofing contractors in North America.
ReplyDeleteThe thing with ENPH is their margins are good.
DeleteQQQ's just broke S1.
ReplyDeleteAAPL just broke S1.
ReplyDeleteI think this is the setup we need for a rally higher but I've been wrong for a while now. A drop to $515 should have cleared out the longs thinking $522 would hold. Now it just needs to stay under for a bit and rally back above. Could set up for a reflex rally next week but we shall see.
DeletePump and dump.
DeleteSpeaking of pump and dump...you guys see DVAX today? Actually turned out to be a nice buy on the panic after hours last night.
DeleteDVAX - Good grief!
DeleteSPY just broke S1.
ReplyDeleteJust look for the obligatory gaps up.
DeleteDECK and FB performing well. Contemplating moving my DECK into more Z. Maybe it's because its one of the few sites I can become addicted to and have used frequently for the past 4 years.
ReplyDeleteI was kinda hoping for a bigger drop. Looks like the market thinks an equity raise is in the cards for NSPH. I wonder though. Credit should be available to them. So, trying to pick up the 20K shares I sold the other day @ 2.45.
ReplyDeleteSecondary price was $2.40 so I'd have to imagine that acts as support...However this is no market for supposed supports.
Delete2.40..yeah, I know. I keep thinking about the director who bought 1M shares in that offer and hasn't sold any. That's a $1M swing in his acct.
Deletehe's gotta be pissed.
DeleteI bet I can make it drop if I were properly motivated! ;)
DeleteAAPL - Do I see five gaps down from $699.36?
ReplyDeleteWhich hostess will you miss the mostess?
AGO - Sheesh another 2.5%, this thing can't be that overpriced can it?
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Now back to that support level from May, hopefully silver doesn't test the $25 neckline b/c if it does and fails, then WATCH OUT PEPPIE!
ReplyDeletePAL - Why won't this thing just confirm the next leg down?
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Well that was easy!
ReplyDeleteSo far, it appears I'm wrong.
ReplyDeleteLooking ugly....take a look at RSIs on TZA and SPX. Ignoring your opinion which one is a buy?
DeleteSPX. Too late to initiate shorts.
DeleteLong AAPL at $511.
ReplyDeleteThe last time AAPL was at this level was back in February.
DeleteI like the volatility> indicates indecisiveness, confusion. Many traders will throw in the towel, which may provide the go-ahead for a rally.
ReplyDeleteI think the rally will surprise people...even the bulls. we could rally all the way up to the 50 DMA (probably around 1415 or so). But if you're looking to trade the market then I would get the hell out above 1,400. I personally am not entirely concerned about the markets but I might take some off on a big rally like that.
DeleteTraders are looking for an excuse to rally> seasonal patterns, year-end optimism, whatever you want to call it. Once it takes hold, it will unleash pent-up demand. New highs are definitely possible before the bear returns with a vengeance.
DeleteJust turned on Fast Money...lots of guys looking to sell a bounce...any bounce. That's why this bounce goes higher than people think. Not saying they're wrong ultimately but just that they're too skeptical.
DeleteThe 200 ma is a logical resistance point. But then again, who mistakes the markets for logical?
DeleteQQQ - Still needs to close that June gap up from $61.24, maybe we just need to mop up these technical obligations remaining in the charts...
ReplyDeleteINTC - Well this thing qualifies as having been taken to the woodshed, IMO.
ReplyDeleteIt all started when Buffett dumped his entire stake.
DeleteYeah, I lose track of all these important details.
DeleteMaybe INTC's dead in the water now they don't have AMD to steal manufacturing technology from anymore, combined with an apparent lack of vision for new products.
DeleteAlways good to hear an insider's take.
DeleteQQQ - I think there's no hurry to buy unless perhaps you're just looking for a ST trade, QQQ 50SMA seems destined to intersect the 200SMA unless a very strong rally is about to occur.
ReplyDeleteJapanese corrective action? What could be the catalyst for a global rally, Japan seems to have become more desperate lately since apparently they've been buying the dollar, so perhaps their outlook isn't exactly robust but more along the lines of "corrective action necessary"?
What's amazing is all these governments won't just tell the banksters to piss off and take a hike.
QQQ - Sure looks like a hammer might be today's result.
ReplyDeleteThe short-lived response to Boehner's comment ('I think the fiscal cliff can be averted') will take off once ST traders have been faked out of their longs. His comment is all we really need to hear at this point- ie, the talks did not disintegrate into a standoff.
ReplyDeletetof- Nice play on AAPL.
ReplyDeleteThis is classic...they're openly defending AAPL on Fast Money. I knew this shit was going to happen. Unfortunately I only scooped up 100 shares of it. But I think it goes to $620ish.
DeleteBoehner went long, eh?
ReplyDeleteMark - I know this sounds dumb but I finally got around to reading the conf call transcript for MITK and I came away thinking it was actually good.
ReplyDeleteI honestly think there is a chance Bill pay never happens.
DeleteYeah you could be right. But they did actually get a signing on it which is the first time they were able to announce something on it. I was suspicious about the Progressive stuff but I've seen ads for it.
DeleteI'm guessing Progressive was a freebie of sorts. They know they are in trouble with RDC.
DeleteAdded 10K more NSPH @ 2.40.
ReplyDeleteYikes, that's 75K shares now. God help me.
DeleteThat trading today was more than suspicious.
DeleteThat 72K share ask @ 2.42 from UBSS is a homeboy. Promise.
ReplyDeleteSold the AAPL at $526.XX. Taking the cash because every other time I don't I get screwed.
ReplyDeleteI would too. Taking that $6K on Tue. saved my week.
DeleteYeah man. This market can be brutal man. I have had about 3 or 4 separate chances to cash in YRCW at a solid gain and within 2 hours it was down significantly. I'm at about 70% of my original position but wish I sold it all on several occasions. I guess that's how they shake you out before the real move.
DeleteI'd love to be shaken out once prior to the real move DOWN.
DeleteTOF said, "This market can be brutal man"
DeleteTruer words have nevver been spoken.
CP, that's funny man.
I hear both of you. And normally, I'm the kind of guy who would be taking the gains I have right now. But something tells me this counter-trend rally has further to run. Anyone have stats on market performance the week of Thanksgiving?
Delete2nd - I'm actually almost fully loaded. I had about half of my Apple on margin. I'm really not looking to cash in my longs right now.
DeleteIt helps that we sold off hard in the morning and reversed quickly on high volume trading. Take a look at intraday charts for QQQ and SPY. Both traded at 2x normal volume. In the near term, the last of the sellers were shaken out today.
DeleteThe other thought in the back of my mind is that we're only two weeks away from December, traditionally the best-performing calendar month for stock prices.
DeleteDay before and day after Thanksgiving are unusually good days with high percentage positive and much better than average returns - can't find the exact source but read that this week.
Deletetof - great aapl trade.
ReplyDeleteI set up a group in my stockcharts account called A TOF 2013 WATCH LIST with the following tickers. GREK, EWP, EWI, YRCW, NOK, WFR, ANR, FSLR. I started it with "A" so that it would be the first watchlist to come up when I pull up my stockcharts account.
Bot 400 FSLR this morn before I got busy at 23.38, set up a stop at 22.21 but it stayed above that and closed just a smidge in the green. I had intended to close this out for the day but I had too much going on.
RIMM had a good day, now maybe it will keep going.
I'll be the proud owner of some option assigned FCX around 37.50 because of the way I structured it with short puts and long calls.
I'll also be the not so proud owner of more TBT and it looks like my whole position will be at a $65 average. I'll be HOPING for a market rally and a drop in rates so I can sell some 65 strike calls against this position.
Deron had an excellent write up over at cc today. that's the way I SHOULD handle most of my trades.
Deron is just a trend following trend trader like someone else I follow....
DeleteI get some good trades from his stuff on CC. Sometimes it's an ETF of a sector big Dave is trading a stock in. IBB comes to mind recently.
I totally agree. I just think I have the problem that many junkies have, feeling like I need to be in the market when most of the time it would be better to sit on the sidelines. I think the buddies here on TT do a good job of picking up some of those spike bottoms and I wish I could do that but so far I've been very unsuccessful at it.
Delete