Tuesday, November 20, 2012

11/20/12 Expect the unexpected

That could mean anything.  A breather, followed by a continuation of the downtrend.  A continuation of the short squeeze.  A real rally.  No edge here for someone who trades on sentiment.

125 comments:

  1. HPQ - This one gets whacked some more today?

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  2. Ford to introduce Fiesta with 1-liter, 3-cylinder EcoBoost engine $F http://t.co/bwdVLPby

    What are they going to call it?? The Fiesta-Vespa?

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    1. Or maybe Fiesta Nova? Reminds me of the Fiat Tipo, the first car I ever actually drove with my foot more than occasionally on the floor.

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  3. It's amazing to see AAPL trade with this much beta.

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    1. Come on APPL...This whole Fing market is riding on your back!

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  4. There's a family down the block. Wife works for HPQ setting up events/meetings (rooms, catering, AV eqt)- I'm tempted to ask her what the inside story is on morale, but I don't have the guts.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, don't ask. Moral probably isn't too high if anyone's watching the stock. It would be interesting to know if they're wondering which division gets laid off next.

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    2. I'd chicken out too. I'm trying to build up the nerve to ask my buddy about ENPH.

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    3. Tell him you bought some ENPH stock and demand inside info.

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  5. NSPH - Be still my heart, this thing's green!!! What an absolute shock!

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  6. According to Marketwatch, the DJIA is currently up +141.

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  7. NLY - This thing goes ex-div around Christmas, wonder if another leg down arrives before the ex-div rally?

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  8. Added to Z at $24.55 on pullback. Love this stock. No chance it stays down here without a buyout offer from the big search engines (GOOG, MSFT, YHOO).

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    Replies
    1. Me too. Might jump in if we get some weakness later today.

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    2. Do you have a lot of your customer's using this site? We use it all the time whenever we're searching for places. LOOP (loopnet.com) was a big player on the commercial side and they were bought out at like $850 Million and they didn't have nearly close to the same market opportunity or growth. I could see Z replicating their model into the commercial side. They absolutely dominate the residential market from everything I read.

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    3. Not really. They're too big honestly.

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    4. I like that trade, looks good to go on daily chart. P/S is 8.2, considerably more than YHOO or GOOG.

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  9. Replies
    1. 12 years ago the next INTC product ramp was going to be cellphone chips, didn't happen.

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    2. I guess INTC keeps trending down until they announce they've hired Marissa Mayer as CEO.

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    3. AT some point, these PC stocks have to be a buy. There may not be the growth going forward, but it is a pretty steady business and corporations especially will stick with them for security and robustness and at the consumer level,no-one I talk to is getting rid of their PC's, just adding tablets to their home.

      I think we just need some signs that business is OK and the stocks go up (look at RIMM up over 50% since BB10 getting some positive reviews). Perhaps a reasonable Christmas season could be the catalyst?

      Just watching for now, but I think there should be some good opportunities to buy.

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  10. GOOG - Looks like a good potential entry, especially on a pull back?

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  11. 2nd - My guess involves a breather followed by a continuation of the downtrend.

    I fully realize this makes no sense in a normal world.

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    Replies
    1. So let's go over the check list....
      Charts? Down.
      Earnings? Down.
      Europe? Unresolved.
      Positioning? Great if Romney won....oops.
      Consolidation of 17% run earlier in the year? Check.

      "Fiscal doo dad solved? Sure, that happened with a photo op. Note: See Europe.

      I'd close the hatches if I were you.

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    2. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/11/other-things-to-think-about-besides-the-fiscal-cliff/

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    3. All that seems pretty superficial and temporary to me, I'm still waiting for that $0.25 gasoline.

      Romney win? Oh please, that one was plain as the noses on our faces.

      Can prices fall further? Oh yes they certainly can, thus I'm waiting with cash ready for the fire sale. Bring it!

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    4. Also, I bet the bears would like to cover about now in preparation for a reload. So yeah, I'm a little upset about having taken the continuing upside bait too early on.

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    5. The Romney thing explains all the cola bullishness that crapped out. It might have been plain to us, but clearly the street had all it's weight on the other foot.

      Seriously, what does the street see? The sock puppet tech bubble? Housing bubble? All but a few on the street are no better than random darts thrown at a board while blindfolded.

      We give them way too much credit.

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    6. Cola? Geez..... COAL. COAL bullishness. I give ME way too much credit.

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    7. $.25 gas? Only three bucks to go....

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    8. Three bucks to go - I'm not holding my breath! ;)

      I wouldn't be one bit surprised if coal only pulled back to support and then rallied again. I also think it's sad testiment humankind hasn't replaced the technology, considering a thimble full of uranium can push an automobile for probably 200k miles.

      But then again, there are no more chemistry sets on department store shelves b/c they're just too dangerous. Every man for himself, assemble your own chemistry set from black-market components or move to another country where you can do it!

      Okay INTC, step up to the plate and invent something for once instead of just stealing it.

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    9. Phew! you had me worried.....

      http://www.discoverthis.com/chemistry.html

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  12. DECK about to gap fill. Not sure if I should bail here or wait for a NFLX like move. I kind of think it's gonna run to $45 to $50.

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    Replies
    1. Lots of gaps down in this chart, all obligations assuming the events weren't material. Next stop $45.50

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    2. NFLX shocked people by gapping down one last time, closing the gap and then going back to the highs from the prior trading range. I kind of think the sentiment etc is the same with AMBS and the highs from the prior trading range were around $50ish. That's why I'm thinking it could do a move up to there. It bumped its head up around there several times.

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    3. Yeah, I see that gap up from yesterday and think that needs to close but probably not until one or two of the gaps down are closed first.

      So I expect you can buy DECK back once yesterday's gap up closes but yours was a very good entry and those gaps down still need to (and will no doubt at some point) be addressed.

      Bias in general seems to be upside, direction of tide certainly helps. I get so caught up in these gaps up too often I don't want to accept the risk.

      So it's major opportunity costs while waiting, waiting, waiting...... in my case. Have cash will add(and wait, wait, wait) if stuff comes to me.

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    4. I was talking to my old boss who bought a ton of APPL at $530ish the other day. He has had a huge year...I think he's only made 5 trades: Long AAPL, long RENN heading into FB IPO, long FIO twice, and long MLNX on crash. Anyway I got to talking to him about investing strategy and I said since he has so much money now (I think he's up to around $2.5 Million) the best thing he could probably do in terms of low risk/high reward is to just wait...wait, wait, and wait some more. There are probably 5 times during the course of the year where you can find a huge crash in a mid to large cap name, buy it and then sell it a month later for a 15 to 25% gain. Or he could just wait for the inevitable 1 or 2 pull backs that occur every year and only buy the leading stock or stocks (like AAPL) on the day that the market opens up down, goes into a mini free fall and then reverses hard.

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  13. WFC - This thing's got a nice wide channel now, wonder if it stays in this channel for several years?

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  14. DECK - Is that a gap up from yesterday I see?

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  15. BB - "AT some point, these PC stocks have to be a buy."

    These guys need a new drug, a real shot in the arm new product line to one-up the smart phone craze.

    Otherwise they'll continue muddling through and trade off an eventual bottom, but I'm a dreamer and would like to see something innovative for a change instead of the same old fight trying to squeeze more water out of the same old Moore's rock. The rule isn't as rigid as INTC portrays it and INTC should know that.

    Innovation, innovation, innovation, that's how APPL did it, everything stops working when it seems like rocket science is the only solution.

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  16. I decided to sell 1/4 of DECK at $34.85. No real reason other than getting sick of watching pops fizzle out.

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  17. Interesting RE info....

    http://ochousingnews.com/news/september-delinquencies-skyrocket-7-72-foreclosure-filings-decline-20-4-shadow-inventory-grows

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    1. Yeah, good stuff. "Those who aren’t paying their mortgage today can expect their free ride to continue indefinitely." This new form of government housing is the type of innovation we need, wish it wasn't all being done in the shadows as so many things are...

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  18. ARNA - Why won't the street just take this thing to $3 so I can buy it and step away from the curb?

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  19. check this thing out: SCHS

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    Replies
    1. Bought some of this SCHS at $2.02...small amount. Mkt cap relative to earnings is extraordinarily low...just comes down to the market ignoring the debt load long enough for it to rally further.

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    2. Sold at $2.03. Huge gain.

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  20. Screw it sold the rest of DECK at $34.6X.

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  21. Long DECK again at $34.4 for a day trade. Stop is below $34.1

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  22. So Craig channels Ritholtz, and the market responds.

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    Replies
    1. This is fair....
      http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/11/sp500-and-3-month-lows/

      "I am not sure what this means going forward, but they are the other side of my view."

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    2. I can't take credit for Big Dave's reminder last night, and since my computer gave up the ghost I don't have my screen capture thingy installed, so I'll just describe it....

      If you draw a trendline from the high it's a steady downtrend with a little check mark on the end, or as BD would say, a gatekeeper.....with another shot at entering short positions on the trend resumption.

      Read Deron today and it's the same thing. Geoff and BC think it's a bottom but the market has to prove it one way or the other.

      2nd has it right, channeling himself is working.

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    3. Speaking of PC's....

      I ordered another black box with a faster processor, larger hard drive and a lot more memory.
      i'm not thrilled about goofing with Windows 8, but it has to beat the unsupported XP I've been struggling with. So as far as I can tell, the PC isn't dead yet and the 'smart phone' people have yet to figure out how to support multiple screens....although my new PC won't fit in my car.

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    4. It's funny, no matter what device I'm on I can tell pretty quickly if I'm wrong about a trade...

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    5. No doubt, but I only have a dumb phone because smart phones don't work in sector R, so I only have a few devices to tell me I'm an idiot. As Martha says, 'that's a good thing'.

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  23. KKD - How many people got stopped out on Friday because it broke below the prior lows only to miss out on a 50% gain? We need to always be buying these stop out points.

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  24. Anyone else notice how the China small caps have been on fire? SORL looks good.

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  25. HTWR- Well, my friend was right.

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  26. AAPL - Good God, was this thing was on Mr. Toad's wild ride today or what?

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  27. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-20/largest-weekly-inflow-bank-savings-accounts-record-flashing-red-alarm

    "All that brings us to the topic of today's post: weekly changes in the amount of cash held in Savings Deposits at Commercial Banks. As the chart below shows, rapid, dramatic shifts, characterized by massive inflows of cash into such savings accounts usually coincide with times of great monetary stress: the three biggest episodes in history to date have been the 2008 Lehman failure, the August 2011 Debt Ceiling Crisis and associated US downgrade, and the May 2009 First Greek failure and bailout.

    Those three episodes represent the biggest weekly Savings Deposits inflows number 2 through 4.

    When was the largest ever inflow into Savings Deposits at Commercial banks, at $131.9 billion in one week? This past week."

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    Replies
    1. Sounds like people are saving up for a big Christmas. Or the end of civilization. What was the date on that again?

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    2. They're preparing to open positions in the only truly recession-proof investment I know of> street drugs.

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    3. It can't be the ending of civilization, we would already know in advance.

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    4. More like money managers have moved client money out of stocks and into cash, the wrong move at the worst time? Note the market bottomed Aug 2011.

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    5. Figures...I agree to cart the kids around this afternoon and miss the end of the world again.

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    6. Lots of stuff in play. I still think some of your wealthy long term investors, like my mother in laws friends, are just cashing in finally and just waiting to see what to do next. If we assume that most of these people trade once or twice a year, and now they know what they will be taxed this year on their capital gains, they can go right back into those stocks with a higher basis.

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  28. Could it actually be cool again to own a Blackberry?

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    Replies
    1. Are you referring to the stock chart (which looks good) or a new phone they came out with?

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    2. Both. Seriously. Think about it. Being the counter trend guy is edgy.

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  29. MITK- If this is for real, kiss MITK goodbye...

    http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/threadview/?&bn=a419a784-903b-30f0-a211-74cbe8f7a4ce&tid=1353468706808-9fdfba14-9cf6-4f4d-be89-9e1ce191b636&tls=la%2Cd%2C0

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  30. Bot 640 shares of ACI with a stop around 6.10. This isn't a Landry 102030 trade, its a higher low trade with a logical stop out point. I do see the possibility that I should have discounted much of the chart for this particular sector prior to the election. If I get stopped out though it will be a calculated loss of $590. I actually bot too many shares but I prefer to leave my stop where it is.

    Natty just keeps going up on colder forecast. Winter shows up next week.

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    1. ACI was a Landry service pick just before the election and then got stopped out. If you look at it it's forming a long base and can only go down so far. It isn't going to zero, but I will wait until it starts making new highs.

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  31. Been reading about this new Picture Pay thing. Already up and running in Texas. Holly cow, this could really be the death rattle for our beloved MITK...at least Debello got his.

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  32. Bot 400 shares of MSFT with a stop just below the low of 26.34 set 2 days ago. That's a calculated loss of $170 or so. Not a Landry type play but one where I could enter a trade with what I consider a well defined stop.

    I probably won't add anything tomorrow so I'll just wait to see if I get stopped out or if I reach some of my sell triggers.

    RIMM - I'm wondering if there are any studies on how a stock reacts when reclaims a nice round number like $10.00? I still have my 500 shares with a stop in place. I'd like to sell part of that above $10.00.

    USO - I was in the money yesterday but I punted these for a small loss today. I didn't get the $5-6 pop I was counting on.

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  33. I was surprised GREK didn't go up today since they thought they were going to come to an agreement tonight.

    Now I see this, it posted 11:28 PM ET. ANd it looks like the euro is down which isn't happy news for my purchases today.
    Euro Zone, IMF Fail to Strike Greek Debt Deal
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/49911704

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  34. This is probably it for me till Sunday. Happy Thanksgiving fellas. Another one rolls on by.

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  35. Mark - I thought that company Malauzai is tied into MITK somehow. Anyway, I remember when I was researching MITK 18 months ago or so and I came across two companies that I was worried about as competition...neither managed to get any big banks as MITK scooped them all up.

    Port - I wouldn't pay attention to daily moves for GREK. It's pretty clear to me the bottom is in; however, I think it needs one more rather large pullback to a higher low to confirm it...then it's a major buy.

    Guys, the more I research this Z the more I think it's the next big internet growth company...I think they dominate the real estate industry like a PCLN or AMZN did in their industry. If the economy goes into a recession it will get hit of course; however, in 5 years the odds are at least decent that it's a 5 bagger or more.

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  36. I've always thought of this period as the 1970's redux. If you look at the chart of the market it jives as well. Are we not in the 1979 parallel or what?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC+Interactive#symbol=%5Egspc;range=19780822,19800310;compare=;indicator=sma(50,200)+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

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  37. Blackberry - If these are cool, then how does Palm Pilot rate?

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  38. Coal?

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/11/20/1200-coal-are-plants-being-planned-worldwide-what-happens-if-they-all-get-built/

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    1. What is "clean" coal? Each pound of coal burned emits approximately 3.5 pounds of CO2, and there's not a damn thing anyone can do about it.

      Yeah, sounds like a problem that isn't easily resolved. Coal consumption could continue increasing

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  39. SO - Speaking of coal, this one's pretty beat up.

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    Replies
    1. NSC is as well, who transports the coal for overseas export?

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  40. I'll probably going to get burned for saying this, but this day might turn into a real yawner.

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    Replies
    1. AGO is kicking butt, I'm waiting to see what MET does. Met looks like it's gonna pull back, might have to buy some if that happens.

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  41. SQNM - Second attempt at $4, this one seems more determined.

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    Replies
    1. Seems like some pretty good news, I'll be surprised if this one doesn't at least close the May gap down.

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  42. MET - Okay, shoulda bought this one at the lower trend line.... Well maybe I can soon?

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  43. MDBX up another 44% today.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-the-election-helped-pot-lovers-yVFo628xQhmGt7ToC6pHxQ.html

    Decent odds on dips below $50. Every time there is another story it rips to $80-90.
    Very small float.

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  44. MDW- Why the F do these halts take so long. Don't THEY know the news?

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    Replies
    1. Apparently they do, look what recently happened to PPS.

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  45. $NSPH Nanosphere to Present at Piper Jaffray 24th Annual Healthcare Conference.. http://t.co/lEVPsDR1

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  46. PAL - Even this one has risen slightly, that never happens!

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  47. Okay, so when's the big crash coming (taps his foot, looks at watch).....

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  48. AUMN - Nice to see this one perking up.

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  49. Gold - The stage is set for a major move (one way or the other), a decisive close above $1800 would reestablish the dominant bull trend.

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  50. Perhaps the Obama haters, ill-tempered merchants of drivel, have taken the day off?

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    1. Mark doesn't count! Well, maybe well into double digits but quickly gets lost in the triple digits. ;)

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    2. Plus he's not that ill-tempered....

      Everyone deserves a day off though.

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    3. Mark has the temperament of a puppy paired with the grace & speed of the zebra and the strength & tenacity of a mule.

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  51. MDW, positive news:

    The Private Placement is subject to customary closing conditions and deliverables. Midway anticipates executing final documentation and closing the private placement on or before December 13th, 2012.
    Key Terms of the Preferred Shares:
    US$70 million Offering at a price of US$1.85 per Preferred Share.
    Each Preferred Share is convertible into Common Shares of the Company on a 1 to 1 basis.
    Holders of the Preferred Shares are entitled to receive an annual, cumulative preferred 8% dividend payable quarterly in cash or common shares, at the Company’s option.
    Preferred Shares are redeemable by either the Company or the holders after five years from the date of issuance for cash equal to the conversion price, initially US$1.85.
    After a period of one year, subject to certain price and volume conditions, the Company may force the conversion of the Preferred Shares to common shares on a 1 to 1 basis.
    Preferred Shares have a liquidation preference equal to 125% of the issue price of the Preferred Shares in connection with certain liquidation events.
    Except as otherwise required by law, the holders of Preferred Shares will be entitled to vote their shares, on an as converted basis, at meetings of the shareholders of the Company.
    Upon common shareholder approval at the next annual general meeting of the Company, the holders of Preferred Shares shall be entitled to nominate and elect a Director of the Company.
    The issuance of common shares below a price of US$1.85 or repurchase any common shares, requires the consent of a designated Preferred Shareholder.
    No fees or commissions are payable in connection with this placement.
    The investors have been granted registration rights under a Registration Rights Agreement and other rights related to board and committee appointments under a side letter.

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    Replies
    1. The spin:

      Kenneth A. Brunk, Midway’s Chairman, President and CEO said, “Midway is pleased to welcome lead investor Hale Capital Partners, L.P. as a key strategic financial partner in the pursuit of the Company’s goal of becoming a Nevada gold producer in the near term. This is a very important step forward for Midway as we have dramatically reduced financing risk in uncertain times, and have done so without incurring hedging on our future gold production or committing to any security over our assets, all while seeking to minimize equity dilution to our shareholders.”
      Martin Hale, CEO and Portfolio Manager of Hale Capital Partners, L.P., said, “We have been investors in Midway since 2010 and that history, the quality of the team and properties, and management execution have given us great confidence in supporting the Company.”

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    2. Yep, initial response certainly seems positive.

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  52. hey fellas. Have a good holiday. i ended up selling the rest of the YRCW. let the run to $30 commence.

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. Yes, TOF and everyone, enjoy your families and our blessings this holiday season.

      Peace.

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  53. http://seekingalpha.com/article/1023231-goldman-sachs-and-morgan-stanley-are-backing-the-truck-up-for-nokia-shares?source=yahoo

    its so awesome that they police the markets so well. let's see what goldman was recommending while backing up the truck to buy NOK:

    http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/UPDATE%3A+Goldman+Sachs+Cuts+Nokia+(NOK)+to+Sell%3B+Sees+Little+in+ST+Recovery,+M%26A+Potential/7629145.html

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