The new Zillow site is awesome! I surfed through the site this morning, and within 30 minutes landed info previously available via far more strenuous reasearch:
(a) Mortgage rates. Two official quotes for 3.375% on a 30-year fixed from Z-vetted lenders with Yelp-like reviews from readers.
(b) Two listings for single family homes in my city by distressed sellers under 500k (with 'Zestimates' about 50-60% higher during the housing bubble).
I can easily see Z becoming the 'go-to' site for buyers, sellers and renters within 2-3 years if the company plays their cards correctly.
Zillow is absolutely awesome site. I have been using it for more then two years to research places to move to.
ReplyDeleteThe site also gives you sold prices.
Try putting in your address and see what comes up on your own home.
I can understand your desire to get out of Honolulu. Too much sun, and if you want to plan a road trip, it comes down to how many different routes are possible from A to Z.
DeleteYes, the road choices can be daunting here. Air travel is the preferred choice for most. It is probably cheaper to fly to the mainland then outer islands anymore. I would prefer cruise boat to mainland, but they only offer them in reverse direction.
DeleteHawaii is a great place, but there are changes afoot which give me pause longer term. After thirty three years here trying to determine a place to move is more challenging than expected. Perhaps that is the way it should be.
T3d - San Diego is probably the mainland's equivalent of Hawaii...or the Florida keys but you don't get quite the surf.
DeleteYeah TOF, two nice places but Ca is off the list due to taxes and the Keys has too much hurricane exposue. As for surf, 2-4 is just fine nowadays very seldom go out over 7 feet anymore as this old body cannot take it.
DeleteMost likely NV or FL. NV has four incredilble condos available in three different ares that would be million dollars easy here and the range is 250k to 400k, but it is the desert.
Our needs today are simple so its probably okay. Thanks for your input.
Definitely not Fl in my opinion, unless you're used to high humidity and constant dampness. Maybe more like Hawaii than SD in these respects?
DeleteI love dry myself, NV might be a little extreme though depending on where exactly(there are lovely pine forests).
I've used Zillow off and on for 5 years. The site will definitely become the go to option for every buyer / renter. It has mass appeal which was huge for sites like eBay and Amazon. Consider them the Re-Max + Countrywide of the online world, without the risk and with a far more easily scalable business model. They currently get more visitors via mobile than through their website and their revenues continue to ramp higher: the Zillow Marketplace (i.e., everything excluding ads on their site) side of their business grew 99% last quarter. This segment of their business will continue to ramp higher as they work toward 25% of the entire broker market using their site over time (right now it's 2.5%). Add in their cut of mortgage originations etc that they will take as they build out this business and its easy to see how they can become a $10+ Billion business. I think they have a shot at providing returns similar to PCLN over the next 5 to 8 years.
ReplyDeleteLook at the scale:
From Q4 2011 to Q3 2012 revs grew 60%. Gross Profit grew 67%. Net Profits grew 153%.
If they grow to that $1 Billion revenue mark with a 40% EBITDA margin that was mentioned in one of 2nd's posts then its pretty easy to see how it could be a $10 Billion business. That's 25 times EBITDA for a high growth company...not outrageous to think that could happen by the end of the decade.
BTW are you looking at Z as a trade or LT?
DeleteT3d - I guess it depends on how fast it moves. I can see this being a 10 bagger over 5 to 7 years. I can also see it going up 100% in a couple of months which would make it hard to not pull some out.
DeleteGMO - David, have you received the updated BACML report from Mark?
ReplyDeleteYes, I have, but I haven't read through it yet. May do it tonight. I have lined up a bunch of sell limit orders for my April $5 calls on AUMN, which should go off between $4.50 and $6.50 on AUMN. Until those limits get hit, I don't see a reason to pull money out of it. Once they do get hit, however, I'll look around at other possible investments.
DeleteOK, just read through it. After seeing the kind of production delays that happened with AUMN, I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing with GMO. Also, I now see that the share price of a mining company can stay absurdly low until the company actually becomes cashflow positive. So I do not see a large catalyst for driving up GMO shares for the next 2 years. AUMN, on the other hand, is at the point where the potential BS has to stop imminently, as they will turn cashflow positive in 1Q2013 and then absurdly low valuations, like the one we see now, will be a thing of the past.
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