Sunday, November 25, 2012
11/25/12 Return of Volatility
Anyone else sense we're about to return to the Sixties? Global unrest (China/Japan island dispute, violence in the Gaza Strip, widespread unemployment/recession in Europe), anti-establishment protests in the US, an overhaul of the healthcare status quo, and a major demographic shift in the world population towards those aged 65 and older. Gimme shelter, and I don't I'll find it in the stock market.
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2013. We'll only know after the fact, but I'm thinking it's a major downer.
ReplyDelete2nd - I kind of agree...just not sure on the timing. I think we will see 1,550ish then a 25 to 30% drop. Coincidentally that would bring us down to 1,085 (assuming 30% off 1,550) which would continue the trend of higher lows since 2009. My guess is a 25% pullback to 1,160 and then a rally to new highs. I think we will continue to have large swings for the next few years. It doesn't mean Zillow won't go higher...only that it will be held back / go flat for a period for a few months and then rally hard. Rather than worry about the future direction of the market, though, I'm just going to continue focusing on long term secular growth companies. They're out there.
ReplyDeleteThe demographic shift is a given. Gonna be expensive.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/your-tax-money-is-about-to-be-blown-in-greece-2012-11-23
ReplyDeleteWe already know all of this.
DeleteI think the key is not to worry too much about stuff like this, but instead figure out which companies will make money off these shifts and get in ahead of the crowd and avoid the ones which get hurt.
ReplyDeleteFor the aging baby boomers, everyone is focused on healthcare which is obvious, but another area that should do well is leisure - cruise ships, airplanes, hotels, etc. Probably financial planning (insurance companies) do well also.
Found this just searching around:
DeleteIn the stagflationary 1970’s during the decade of dead stock returns gold and energy stocks went up as a result of the inflationary trend. Despite the recessionary environment pockets of economic growth and innovation still occurred. Casino stocks for instance were very hot thanks to the opening of new casinos in Atlantic City and Las Vegas. People who invested in the right places made money while those that didn’t – well they didn’t.
Well, I think Z will benefit from the housing recovery, which is already underway. As more and more people return to chasing the American dream, the site has the potential to become as popular as Amazon. Viewers will obsessively visit Zillow to watch their net worth rise, compare their homes with those of friends and colleagues, hunt for properties to flip. Realtors and lenders will flock to Z in response.
ReplyDeleteIt is definitely one of the better ones compared to many of the others which have come to market recently (like Groupon or Zynga). They've got first mover advantage and have become a destination web site. Hard to see somebody doing to them what Facebook did to Myspace.
DeleteI'm not yet convinced that the housing recovery has turn for the average American. What I do know is that in the last few months private equity has gottten together billion dollar syndicates. After raising this money, they go around different areas of the country buying up supply. This is just as artificial has the gov't printing money, but it does tend to tighten iventory just as monetization keeps rates artificially low.
DeleteI look at a lot of condos and just because 4 sell for 100K more than last year and the project is only 65% sold does not in my mind represent a turn. I suppose it still depends on what the developers of the project wants to hold out for.
There is no question that new homebuilders have raised there prices in the last six months as supply tighten, thank you private equity. It would not suprise me at all if this is some secret deal by the gov't to help lift hoousing off the floor.
I still think the jobs market will be the key to a real turn in the market, but I've been wrong before. Time will tell, ah the hard right edge.
" What I do know is that in the last few months private equity has gottten together billion dollar syndicates. After raising this money, they go around different areas of the country buying up supply. This is just as artificial has the gov't printing money,..."
DeleteOther than the obvious, having renters in a neighborhood instead of home owners what is the disadvantage? I don't get the money printing analogy either.
It's just a closer step toward socialism where the gov't or elite groups with billions manage the economy. The US is getting further and further away from capitalism.
DeleteThe activity still removes supply which helps with upward prices, but its not average Americans doing this and having their lives improved.
One of my stocks, Tricon Capital (TCN in Toronto) is a real estate developer who has been around for 20 years and they have raised a couple hundred million and are buying up single family detached houses in the US and getting a 12% yield. This is the first time they eve done this and they have a lot of interest in this. They are also developing a huge site (2500 acres) in Houston which they say is still one of the strongest in the U.S.
DeleteI think you are seeing a lot of private money do the same - pretty good business if you can buy something that gives you 12% when borrowing at 3.5%.
http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/the-rolling-stones-50th-anniversary-tour-blasts-off-in-london-20121125
ReplyDeleteWow, Mick Taylor's back.
DeleteFolks, I would strongly recommend that you all read the latest quarterly letter from Jeremy Grantham, that recently came out. Some key excerpts are given below.
ReplyDelete******
Attitudes to change are sticky. We cling to the idea of the good old days with enthusiasm. When offered unpleasant ideas (or even unpleasant facts) we jump around looking for more palatable alternatives. Critically, the tech boom and bust and the following housing boom and housing and fi nancial busts helped camoufl age the recent unpleasant economic development lying below the surface: the steady and important drop in long-term U.S. growth. Someday, when the debt is repaid and housing is normal and Europe has settled down, most business people seem to expect a recovery back to America’s old 3.4% a year growth trend, or at least something close. They should not hold their breath. A declining growth trend is inevitable and permanent and is caused by some pretty basic forces. The question here is not “Has the growth rate dropped?” (yes, it has) or “Will it continue to drop?” (yes, it will). The question is “At what rate will it drop?”
GDP can be conveniently divided into population effects and everything else, loosely described as “productivity.”
The demographic inputs peaked around 1970 at nearly 2% a year growth (there are many ways to do these calculations, each yielding slightly different results). They fell to about 1% average growth for the last 30 years and demographic effects are now down to about 0.2% a year increase in man-hours where they are likely to remain until 2050, with possibly a very slight downward bias.
Productivity in manufacturing has been high and is expected to stay high, but manufacturing is now only 9% of the U.S. economy, down from 24% in 1900. It is on its way to only 5% by 2040 or so. Growth in service productivity in contrast is low and declining. Total productivity is calculated to be just
1.3% through 2030.
The bottom line for U.S. real growth, according to our forecast, is 0.9% a year through 2030, decreasing to 0.4% from 2030 to 2050.
******
Got gold?
David,
DeleteMaybe I'm missing something here, but I would think a slow-growth GDP environment would be bad for gold and all commodities really. I would think you have to be a really good stock picker in that type of environment.
I have to agree, why buy gold if growth is slow and demand for commodities low?
DeletePerhaps this environment is dollar negative?
I think David is seeing this right. Grantham says, "helped camoufl age the recent unpleasant economic development lying below the surface: the steady and important drop in long-term U.S. growth."
DeleteNotice he is talking about this country and not the rest of the world. We are on the decline and the rest of the world is on the ascent. There will not be a drop in demand for resources (Grantham suggests investment in long term commodities like timber for example) but the demand will be to the heavily populated emerging/developing markets. At some point I suspect the reserve currency will be the Renminbi or at least a basket of currencies and those populations still revere gold.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-25/uggs-in-play-with-deckers-seen-luring-buyers-real-m-a.html?cmpid=yhoo
ReplyDeleteWill be key to see how sales are this winter for Uggs. Last winter was mild, so boot sales were down, so the real question is how much of the decline was due to the weather and how much was Ugg-specific.
DeleteBB - I agree however in just looking at sales relative to recent buyouts of brands that were not all that good, DECK should be worth at least $45 per share.
DeleteAssuming DECK is worth $45, wouldn't the market price it at a 50% discount along with many others?
DeleteTOF, you've probably done this, but I'd also metric against P/S in other buyouts. As I recall, DECK had some of the highest margins in the industry, so I think a takeout buyer would normalize these somewhat in trying to come up with a buyout price and not give full credit to a P/E valuation.
DeleteCheck the correlation of your metrics.
Deletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/11/everything-you-know-about-investing-is-wrong/
Growth - Will it be lackluster? I'm envisioning better results than perhaps those warmongers who are pissed over Obama's reelection.
ReplyDeleteI agree completely - there's a lot of pentup demand in the US economy in housing and auto for example. Housing has been underperforming for several years and, although a lot of it was payback for the overinvestment in 2005 - 2007, I think we`ve gone too far the other way and now we have pentup demand. Same with auto`s - even though cars are better built than in the past and last longer, sales have been below replacement levels for several years and the average age of cars on the road is the highest its ever been.
DeleteBoth are big ticket items which drive a lot of economic activity, mush of it which stays in the US and helps drive the overall economy.
WNR - Hey man, I owned this one under $10, around a $6 handle if I recall...
ReplyDeleteNo volume, but that was a great reaction for Z so far. I had a bid in at 25.00 while I checked the news. Maybe next time.
ReplyDeleteZ - This one makes me nervous but man, I can see the potential.
DeleteCNH - Pretty nice work on this one, huh?
There's a decent chance we revisit 1350 before taking off for 1500.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't surprise me - may talk another market scare for the politicians to actually do some work on this fiscal cliff and put this issue to bed. Normally, we are getting into a really good time of year for stocks. In my 12 years of active investing, December is the only month which has been 100% positive. But with the politicians being so dysfunctional now, might be the year the streak gets brokern.
Delete"December is the only month which has been 100% positive."
DeleteMight anticipate a disappointment at some point?
1393 - This is where bears will turn the screws.
ReplyDeleteGMO - I don't know why this one hasn't moved back to low $3's, I guess there aren't enough people trapped long yet.
Patience pays off in this market.
DeleteWhy is TLT up so big?
ReplyDeleteReread my 652 am post, bro.
DeleteI was talking more about the short term divergence.
DeletePAL - I had planned on dipping my toe in this one under a buck.
ReplyDeletePXP/MMR..I wonder what's going on with these 2.
ReplyDeleteThere are a couple of gaps up that need filling, the June gap up from $33.21 is the one that jumps out at me.
DeleteNSC - This one's probably not a good proxy for the housing recovery.
ReplyDeleteCNI probably has the best exposure to the housing recovery as they do the most forestry products by far, but their stock is holding up well. NSC certainly has had a good pullback, I would assume related to coal. May be a good buying point here.
DeleteTRP - I'm expecting a breakout fakeout, how 'bout you guys?
ReplyDeleteTRP seems so expensive to me for a pipeline/energy utility. Bought it in the 2009 crash, and it did great and I wanted to keep, but had to sell as I just could not see how it can justify a price much above $45 for a few years.
DeleteAGO - The bounce back on this one has pleasently surprised me, all good things must come to an end?
ReplyDeleteJCP - Perhaps this one's another housing recovery victim?
ReplyDeleteNLY - Okay, maybe this one will come to me this week.
ReplyDeleteI'm not a bottom fisher, but at some point the VXX is going to be a killer.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Craig. Made quick lunch money opening @ 30.01 and closing @ 30.19.
DeleteMy pleasure! Enjoy!
DeleteAlright I'm out of advice and suggestions and so going out to split and stack wood now, trusting you guys won't be pulling any funny stuff while I'm out there Okay?
ReplyDeleteOh BTW, gasoline at the station was as low as I've seen it in a very long awhile, you wouldn't know it by looking at UGA.
"Check the correlation of your metrics.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/11/everything-you-know-about-investing-is-wrong/"
CC - That's for the overall market...we're talking about individual stocks here.
BB - On a price to sales comparison, which is what I almost always look at first because sales are a lot harder to manipulate, DECK is valued at around 0.8 times sales vs recent buyouts of 1.1 to 1.3 for several smaller unprofitable brands.
Wow - I'm surprised it's down that low. Good thing is looks like high expectations have been completely removed from the stock. Might get a good move even without a takeout, just a good winter selling season.
DeleteYeah that's been my thinking. I think a lot of bottom pickers got wiped out when the stock was down in the 40's. It rallied to $50 and probably made people feel good about the bottom being in...then it fell out. I think it eventually gets into the high 40's again.
DeleteIn general, I've noticed a lot of things go through this short term trading pattern: what looks like an obvious bottom is bought...the stock/commodity bounces, people get happy, it drops back down to support and tests people. then it bounces again, people are convinced the bottom is in...then it falls below and people bail. that's when you buy. the same thing happened on NFLX and /NG. being able to wait for that last drop could make you a good deal of $$.
I took a little of my YRCW off the table earlier at $7.28+/-.
ReplyDeleteStill have about half that I'm willing to ride out.
Also took a little CEF off. My guess is we retest the lows. What happens then is beyond my pay scale....only my hairdresser knows for sure.
Nice move on YRCW CC. I unloaded at $8.1, $7.5, and $6.8...not sure what the average was but probably around $7.4 I guess. I had a feeling it would go down to test the $5 support one more time. Could be way off. Also really wanted to get into Zillow.
DeleteNG(BOIL) - Is this the pullback that gets bought with both hands?
ReplyDeleteQID @ 30.45...
ReplyDeleteOff @ 30.46. ----!
DeleteWell, better than 30.42 ;)
DeleteIt's always harder making money on the short side. Not sure why that is.
DeleteVXX @ 29.90...
ReplyDeleteVery, very hard betting against the bulls.
Delete"I have to agree, why buy gold if growth is slow and demand for commodities low?"
ReplyDeleteGold goes up (in $USD terms) when the amount of printed $USD (i.e. US national debt) grows faster than the amount of goods and services produced (i.e, US GDP). Aside from inflating its debt away over the next decade or two (which will be amazingly positive for gold over that time period), the US can also try to grow out of its debt. But with the long-term structural GDP headwinds that Grantham notes, it will be impossible to do it...
One thing I find humorous about YRCW is that in the 2 months I held the stock it never moved up without immediately reversing it's gains. I unloaded my last bit at around $6.8 and it hasn't pulled back since. WTF!?!
ReplyDeleteI just used the chart. The darned thing is in a major bottoming formation, how low could it go? Is it going to zero? I suppose it could happen but it is unlikely, so I just had to keep my position a reasonable size and WAIT. Not that that was easy at times.....
DeleteYep...I got lucky in that I started buying at around $6.20 so my cost basis was lower. I still think they have an outside shot of being a 5 bagger.
DeleteHere's the deal with the company from a FUNDAMENTAL basis (obviously the charts always tell a different story): their best quarters are Q2 and Q3...Q4 and Q1 tend to be slower. They generated operating profits in Q2 and Q3 but will most likely revert to losses in the next 2 quarters...Sandy has really hurt the trucking industry for Q4 so chances are they will be able to write the loss off this quarter as Sandy related and investors may give them a pass. Q1 will be hard again...if investors shrug it off then they believe in the turnaround story. However, I think it could very well rally through Q4 earnings...err losses...and then I think there is a risk it hits $5 again. Initially when I sold the rest of my shares I was thinking that the Hostess bankruptcy would created negative sentiment for them because it was a unionized company.
Having said all of this I felt like Z at $24 was a potential 10 bagger longer term and I'm really trying to switch gears into thinking longer term on some of these investments. YRCW might also be a 10 bagger but if we fall on hard times then I like the chances far better for Z.
VXX makes UNG look like a 'friendly.'
ReplyDeleteI'll admit it...it's been hard as hell not to sell the pop in DECK...6% in one day is what annualized? 120,000%?
ReplyDeleteI'd be out right now.
DeleteDidn't you recently point out that every time you DON'T sell the pop you get burned?
DeleteYep I ended up selling it just a few minutes ago at $35.
DeleteHard to ignore a 6% gain in one trading day.
DeleteI can almost guarantee it was a good move. Great trade, btw!
DeleteVXX off @ 30.05...
ReplyDeleteSold the rest of YRCW. Taking the hint...
ReplyDeleteAlso a great trade! Not many +6% moves on the long side in a down-trending market.
DeleteTOF, Read your comments on the bottomming process, seems to happen frequently these days. I wonder if it is because too many people are trading technicals, or perhaps ths HFTs are screwing with the market.
ReplyDeleteBB - I believe it's because of the technical issue. I think lots of armchair traders are lemmings, following what the supposed experts say on TV about support / resistance areas.
DeleteWhat I really don't 'get' is why, after all these years, any stock that gets upgraded by an analyst will still pop immediately afterward? Is is short covering, or is there real 'news' in the analysis? This would be in reference to AAPL today, with one analyst putting out a price target of 675.
ReplyDeleteI would assume its because people have made money following the analysts in the past, so they are willing to pay up.
DeleteI know a number of the stocks at the Value Investing Congress will pop 10%ish depending on which fund manager talks about them. But, if you look at how the stocks they talked about the previous 3 years did, if they are up 60%, paying up 10% is OK I guess (although you almost always get a chance to buy at the original price in my experience).
MMR- Looks like they were supposed to release flow rate date from well #1 at Davey Jones. This is the acrage PXP sold it's working interest too. It's SUPPOSED to be the mother load of all Gulf assets. Man, what a punishing delay.
ReplyDeleteNumbers out now and stock popping...
DeleteMighty MITK> has it seen its best days? I'm thinking it's ripe for a buyout.
ReplyDeleteIf you guys can't see this let me know.
ReplyDeletehttp://breakfastwithdave.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx
Unable to access.
DeleteMMR
ReplyDeleteNEW ORLEANS--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- McMoRan Exploration Co. (MMR:$10.36,00$-2.09,00-16.79%) updated its ultra-deep exploration and development activities in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Shelf and onshore in the Gulf Coast area, including in progress flow testing operations at Davy Jones No. 1, positive drilling results onshore at Lineham Creek, new logging results from Blackbeard West No. 2 and in progress operations at Lomond North.
McMoRan today provided an update on the Davy Jones No. 1 production test currently in progress on South Marsh Island Block 230. As previously reported in October 2012, McMoRan replaced heavy drilling mud in the hole with clear completion fluid, which was required to suppress flow in the well while the final steps were completed. On November 11, 2012, the well was opened for test and flowed gas into an unmetered atmospheric tank before being flared. To date, MMR has recovered completion fluids with weights of approximately 9 and 19 pounds per gallon and is initiating operations to inject a barite solvent into the formation in order to clean out the perforations to achieve a measureable flow test. McMoRan will provide updates as flow testing operations progress and a measurable flow test is achieved.
As previously reported, McMoRan has drilled two successful sub-salt wells in the Davy Jones field. The Davy Jones No. 1 well logged 200 net feet of pay in multiple Wilcox sands, which were all full to base. The Davy Jones offset appraisal well (Davy Jones No. 2), which is located two and a half miles southwest of Davy Jones No. 1, confirmed 120 net feet of pay in multiple Wilcox sands, indicating continuity across the major structural features of the Davy Jones prospect, and also encountered 192 net feet of potential hydrocarbons in the Tuscaloosa and Lower Cretaceous carbonate sections.
Davy Jones involves a large ultra-deep structure encompassing four OCS lease blocks (20,000 acres). McMoRan is the operator and holds a 63.4 percent working interest and a 50.2 percent net revenue interest in Davy Jones. Other working interest owners in Davy Jones include: Energy XXI (EXXI:$31.59,00$-2.34,00-6.90%) (15.8%), JX Nippon Oil Exploration (Gulf) Limited (12%) and Moncrief Offshore LLC (8.8%).
Thanks. Reading watching although I'm not smart enough to understand it all.
DeleteVOL is 7x's
DeleteThe reaction to the news sure isn't great, stating the obvious.
DeleteSorta of reminds me of SD tank which turn out to be a buy.
DeleteYeah, good point. Their both highly leveraged plays. Still watching, but 9ish seems likely if it can't hold 10.
Deletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/01/arts/music/davy-jones-a-singer-in-the-monkees-dies-at-66.html
DeleteOh wait, that's another Davy Jones...
I guess if I understand it the mkt is not happy that the flow test was un-metered and traders have to continue to wait for measurable flow rate tests.
DeleteIn a word uncertainty.
I think it would be reflected more in the price if oil was higher. This is great news as it's 22,000 acres 194 feet deep (the hydrocarbons are) but with low prices the market shrugs it off. Kinda like a huge silver find with low prices....ahem...
DeleteYep, and it also looks bad to miss test/completion dates with that much debit.
DeleteMark- It's not a matter of being 'smart' enough to understand it all. It's a matter of being knowledgeable enough to understand it. What we need is someone like CP to read it over and give us the two-word summation: 'It's oversold,' or 'They're ----ed.'
DeleteFricken' YRCW. Glad I jumped ship when I did.
ReplyDeleteI'll buy back in in the $6's.
Okay, I'm rolling the dice.
ReplyDeleteVXX at 29.77
Bidding MMR @ 9.50.
ReplyDeleteI bet your bid gets hit tomorrow at the open and then takes off. Does anyone think MMR really lost 22% of it's value? That's just a fearful chart.
Deletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/intrade-says-us-customers-must-close-accounts-2012-11-26
ReplyDeleteIn other words, no more online gambling except in casinos sanctioned by the federal government. They're all about level playing fields.
What do you, folks, about today's failure to reach an agreement about Greece?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.examiner.com/article/eurozone-members-refuse-haircut-for-greece-bailout-on-hold
Why is the market not freaking out? Is it because all private lenders have already sold their Greek debts to ECB?
Maybe they're cheering Germany's decision to no longer allow Greece to pull their collective chain?
DeleteSomewhere I read an article about how most owners of Greek debt are now public entities, looks like the private ones received their bailouts for the most part. I'm not sure if it's true or not considering I've also read articles claiming banks are forced to buy the debt.
DeleteI guess it's all priced in maybe, hopefully we can return to concerning ourselves with corporate profits.
Pretty sure most private debts were written down by 80% or 90% a while ago.
DeletePretty much all the debt holders now are governments who are trying hard not to take a writedown, but instead and extend and reduce rates approach (like the Marshal Plan).
I honestly think Greece is pretty much irrelevent at this point. They say it`s economy is smaller than Kentucky`s.
AGO - Wouldn't it be hilarious if this one broke out and went on to $17?
ReplyDeleteI`m pretty confident it does sometime in the next year. Hopefully soon.
DeleteMMR - "Numbers out now and stock popping..."
ReplyDeleteHey guys although it may seem like it, we're not joking around here! ;)
I have no idea why MMR got hit on the press release, I guess it's a sell the news event or the results were disappointing.
I was away the last 2 hours...
ReplyDeletewhy do i get the sense that I made a mistake selling DECK?
YRCW tanked as usual into the close.
Z has news after the close.
any of you guys grab MMR?
ReplyDeleteI just emailed MOG.
DeleteWith today's receipt of the water permit by GMO, and given that it has been making higher lows and higher highs since June, a new higher high seems inevitable in the days ahead. So, to line up my ducks, I just placed sell limit orders at $4, $4.25, $4.50 and $5, each for 1K shares of GMO.
ReplyDeleteMan, all of the oil services charts I follow are a mess.
ReplyDeleteI agree. I`m really struggling with what to do with them. They are very cheap and oil is holding in above $85 pretty well, so I think the E&P and Integrateds continue to drill, but they`re all having rough quarters. I read we are at a trough in spending, but the trough in 2007 kept dropping and dropping.
DeleteGood point. It also seems like the associated cots working in these shale plays is much higher than we (I) thought.
DeleteGood tidbit from Bespoke:
ReplyDeleteWhen the S&P 500 has been up between 5% and 15% YTD thru November, it has gained in December 20 of 21 times.
I love these kind of stats.
DeleteSadly, I sold 200 of my RIMM shares last Wed at 10.28, I still have 300 shares left and I'm struggling with how to set the stops.
ReplyDeleteAnother sad trade, sold half my FSLR on Wed at 24.46 and moved my stop up to breakeven. I need to set this stop a little higher too. From what I've read in Landry's book, he seems to give his remaining shares a lot of wiggle room.
ACI, ever so close to my stop loss but not quite there yet.
RIMM gapped up on big volume but the holiday sorta messed with the chart a bit I'm sure. I'll be watching RIMM for another buy trigger.
ReplyDeleteFSLR is a little different, I show resistance at $26 and it needs to break that big time. I could see me getting stopped out of these shares but if FSLR does break out decisively, then I may buy more shares as a separate trading plan.
FB is getting some love, I'm watching for a pullback then a buy trigger.
You could consider the RIM.TO chart for this period as we did not have a holiday last week.
DeleteEveryone's in bed early. I think I'll join you..ah, in retiring early..alone.
ReplyDeletetwo nice looking chart setups: ENZ, CAK.
ReplyDeletenot sure why i kept ignoring MSON. I found it around $4. remind me of REED
mark - did you find out more about that malauzai company? i'm pretty sure they're tied into a partner with MITK. i remember digging up the connection a year or so ago...
ReplyDeleteThis is an upper!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-dead-bonds-deader-till-2022-pimco-2012-11-27?siteid=rss&rss=1
Another article to scare people out of stocks. The good thing is you don't see articles at market tops. People who read this crap are missing this bull market. When they do finally start to get on board, I think we see some big moves to the upside.
DeleteI especially thought this paragraph was ridiculous and trying to pick sound bites to fit an agenda:
"Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle first mentioned a “new normal” with slow, low growth back in 2002. It fell on deaf ears. Since the 2008 meltdown the same warnings are coming from gurus like Grantham, Gross, El-Erian and others. Ignore their warnings at your peril."
> Hmmm, Warren Buffet also wrote in 2008 in his NY Times editorial that it was the first time ever he was purchasing stocks in his personal account and that "Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree". Guess you just ignore things like that.
AGCO - Crazy insider buying?
ReplyDeleteFrom Toronto Globe and Mail Today re Energy Stocks. Perhaps the selling which has driven the charts down so far are getting the stocks to a fundamental buying price - at least it appears insiders think so:
ReplyDelete============================
Insider buying suggests energy stocks about to break out of funk
Monday, November 26, 2012
Darcy Keith
Print this article
Canadian energy stocks have underperformed the S&P/TSX index by 18 per cent over the past three years. Corporate insiders are signalling that’s about to change.
INK Research, which monitors buying and selling activity by officers and directors within their own companies, said today its energy indicator has reached 348 per cent. That’s a rise from 283 per cent just a week ago and means there are more than three oil and gas stocks with key insider buying for every one with selling.
“Insiders appear to be in an upbeat mood, suggesting that chances are good that Canadian energy stocks may break out of their funk,” said INK CEO Ted Dixon.
Mr. Dixon believes there are at least a couple of factors at play. Natural gas prices appear to have bottomed. And technological innovation in the exploration and drilling for energy resources have made more oil and gas finds economically feasible.
“Successful entrepreneurs are finding new ways to recover oil and gas in areas that even five years ago would have been unreachable,” he noted.
Mr. Dixon said the positive sentiment is personified by the buying activities of two oil patch entrepreneurs in particular: Calgary lawyer John Brussa and oil and gas executive Paul Colborne.
Mr. Brussa has been buying beaten-up shares of Penn West Petroleum Ltd., which recently went through a management shakeup as part of a strategy to protect its dividend, Mr. Dixon pointed out. And he’s also been buying shares in Long Run Energy Ltd., recently created through the merger of Guide Exploration Ltd. and Westfire Energy Ltd.
Mr. Colborne last week, either through the public market or private transactions, spent $2.9-million buying shares in the four companies in which he is a board member: Cequence Energy, Crescent Point Energy, Legacy Oil + Gas, and Surge Energy.
Overall insider market sentiment for the Toronto stock market remains upbeat this week. INK’s TSX indicator is now at 150 per cent, up from 136.6 per cent a week ago and 120 per cent two weeks ago.
The indicator is derived by taking the number of stocks with buy-only transactions over the last 60 days, and dividing that with the number of sell-only transactions. The indicator ignores stocks that have both buying and selling in an effort to give a more accurate reading.
PBR's been pretty well beat up, but that one's Brazillian. Then there's MMR from yesterday's beating. And wasn't PXP recently bought out, what's up with that one?
DeleteMMR is now trading at $8.66 pre-market.
DeleteMake that $8.48
Delete$7.69, in real time.
DeleteSU seems to be doing fine, when does this one get whacked?
ReplyDeleteSo, is a partial answer to the municipal fiscal cliff going to be internet commerce taxation?
ReplyDeleteKMP - Has closed it's June gap up ans now has another one from a few days ago.
ReplyDeleteGEL - Kickin' butt.
ETP - Gonna break out or down fer the count?
GDP - This one's pretty beat up.
ReplyDeleteDVN - Can't leave this one out, or can we?
PWR - This one has an October gap up that needs filling as well.
ReplyDeleteNPK - This one could use some help, Presto makes good stuff.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - This one needs to maintain today's altitude, else it's setting up for another touch and go.
ReplyDeleteJust woke up. Got this from MOG last night...
ReplyDelete"Hard to tell. The stock tanked because of Davy Jones uncertainty. All indications are they are having problems establishing a commercial flow rate, suggesting reservoir permeability issues despite their denials. Yes, they missed their gas production numbers as well but this stock is trading on net asset value of mega discoveries so any cracks in the value of Davy jones or Blackbeard are stock movers. I would need to listen to Jim Bob on the call to better understand Davy Jones cleanup issues. Clearly the market is doubting their press release spin on DJ well completion problems. They could be a good takeout for majors but not jim bob's style.
I can't believe he is still at it. I am suspect of reservoir quality issues but market has probably reacted prematurely, jury is still out but leaning wrong direction for Mmr"
Another 20% today...wow, looks like we got lucky boyz.