"Hard to tell. The stock tanked because of Davy Jones uncertainty. All indications are they are having problems establishing a commercial flow rate, suggesting reservoir permeability issues despite their denials. Yes, they missed their gas production numbers as well but this stock is trading on net asset value of mega discoveries so any cracks in the value of Davy jones or Blackbeard are stock movers. I would need to listen to Jim Bob on the call to better understand Davy Jones cleanup issues. Clearly the market is doubting their press release spin on DJ well completion problems. They could be a good takeout for majors but not jim bob's style. I can't believe he is still at it. I am suspect of reservoir quality issues but market has probably reacted prematurely, jury is still out but leaning wrong direction for Mmr"
Another 20% today...wow, looks like we got lucky boyz.
Market doubts the PR spin, if reservoir quality issues actually exist then market isn't premature. Right? Granted the discount could be overdone but MMR isn't exactly making shareholders money right now, is it?
CP- PXP sold it's working interest in Davy Jones to MMR. I believe they still have a small interest left. They also just levered up bigtime to buy BP's gulf assets.
Unfortunately, I bet this gap fills about the time I'm adding to AGO under $13. Or maybe I get lucky and AGO delivers an afternoon delight while AGCO's delivering on this obligation to shareholders.
According to Seeking Alpha, uggs were 1 of the top searches for gifts on the block Friday weekend.
But, on the other side, I was talking to my 28 year old daughter today, and she says she's embarrassed to wear UGS in public, and almost certainly won't buy another pair as she can only wear them around the house.
I'm not playing either way. I'm sure you can do well playing this bounce if you are quick enough.
"The album was a huge hit, selling millions worldwide, and the couple rode the wave, quickly releasing another album the in 1966, entitled The Wonderful World of Sonny and Cher. It was during this year that the couple started to perform internationally, and this was where they created their image of Sonny wearing caveman boots while Cher was barefoot, both of them wearing animal skins.
However, when the 1970’s entered, their album sales declined as fans started to look for other things in music icons. The popular theme was drugs, sex and rock and roll, and the couple’s squeaky clean image and easy listening songs were not what the public wanted anymore. This led to some strain in their relationship, however, a good thing came from this time: Cher gave birth to their son, Chastity Bono."
Uh, Cher gave birth to, what was at that time, a female child named Chastity, although she was as ugly as Sonny. The son thing happened later and his name is now Chaz. I'm completely open to transgender genetics, but I don't think we need to bury the timeline.
DD has an interesting gap above it which would require about a 15% rise to fill. Getting a bounce off the bottom now, but, as TOF described yesterday, bottoming patterns usually take time with an undercut of the low to scare out the weak technical traders.
Yeah maybe, I was noticing MEOH looked like it wants to run. Chemicals gaining traction? Okay, DD on a pullback to clean up these charts! Note this didn't immediately happen on the gaps up from June, perhaps this time it does.
Even so, DD may not have much to give, a drop under 43.01 may not happen?
"if the multi-trillion dollar Iraq war really was a “war for oil,” it was exceptionally ill-advised."
I thought the wars were over weapons of mass destruction, the criminal event perpetrated by a dozen+ individuals hijacking and flying aircraft into the WTC and Pentagon, etc., prompted renewed interest in national security, thus two unfunded wars were begun. Countless innocent Iraqi citizens along with US soldiers were the immediate casualties.
My impression is the situation in the middle east is more unstable as a result but perhaps it's what needed to happen, the theory of hitting bottom?
Two trades. I opened the first at 7.45 and sold it at 8.18 when it seemed to bounce off the 20 dma (on a 5 min chart).
Then it traded sideways and started to rally again so I figured WTF...so entered at 8.20 and sold at 8.83. The 9.00 round number seemed like resistance and I was up about $2700 for both trades. As usual it's never as large a trade as you'd like when you exit but fear is always strong on the entry. There were a couple of pullbacks where I was tempted to run.
Thanks, BB, for a good article this morning about Canadian energy stocks. Since I recently sold most of my PNPFF between $1.14 and $1.28, I think it is time to start buying it now again. So I have just placed a buy limit order for 2000 shares at $0.94, and then more buy limit orders at $0.9, $0.85, and $0.8 for 3000 shares each.
My first buy limit order for PNPFF (2000 shares at $0.94) was just hit. Let's see if my other buy limit orders get hit, allowing me to accumulate more shares at the 7-year low (not counting the panic in the fall of 2008).
Pretty sure that'll be the next phone I get. Hardly talk on the phone, but do email / internet all the time. Be nice to have the large screen and my brother-in-law has one and says it is not too big to carry around in you pocket. It's like getting a tablet with phone capabilities as opposed to the other way around.
I'm tempted to buy into miners here. But past experience tells me I should wait, as selloffs in that sector tend to last longer and fall further than we expect. If I'm wrong, then it's a missed opportunity. But if I'm right, then I'll be sidestepping a pretty big pothole.
Good article, illini. It's easy to think investors are overreacting when there's a 2-day -33% haircut, but we've all seen worse followed by long periods of further decline. As they say, price is the final arbiter. Don't argue with it.
Stopped out of RIMM today at $11.165. I had just watched a free video Dan Fitzpatrick sends out most day and last night it was on RIMM. He mentioned using the prior day's low as a reference point for a stop so that's how I set it up. I hope I will wait for a proper buy signal to get back in, if one shows up. There was a lot of volume on a big down day so who knows. I see someone over at CC shorted it yesterday.
FSLR - if I had been paying attention I probably would have bought more close to $27 but now I'm glad I didn't. It closed $1.00 down from it's intraday high. The chart still looks good to me though so I'll keep watching for an entry.
TOF- Re, MITK/Misoula...Yes, it appears there is a connection according to the message boards. But it's weird, it seems they maybe gave it away for free and only part of it. Kinda seems like a repeat of RDC.....
Guys..You HAVE to listen to the MMR call. Old Jim Bob sounds like he's 10 sec's away from his death bed. Then go to the 18m mark. The frist question is from Leon Cooperman. Priceless!!!!!!
"I'm tempted to buy into miners here. But past experience tells me I should wait, as selloffs in that sector tend to last longer and fall further than we expect."
2nd_ave, why not use the strategy that you had used a few years ago -- waiting for an index to become greatly oversold and then starting to scale in gradually? If you wanted to allocate $X to miners now, why not allocate $0.1X now, and then place buy limit orders at progressively better prices for $0.2X, $0.3X and $0.4X? Then, you will actually be *wishing* for the miners to fall further, so that you could get a full load of them.
That's exactly what I have done with PNPFF -- see my post at 11:31am. I have expanded my lowest buy limit order at $0.80 to 5000 shares, since it will make sense to buy progressively more shares as the price becomes better and better.
Very cool. Why don't one of you guys try this out and let me know how it works. I also think his comments on practicing concentration are interesting too.
Brain-controlled helicopter takes mental concentration to new heights http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/23/tech/orbit-brain-controlled-helicopter/index.html?hpt=hp_bn5
wow that is really cool. over dinner last week we were talking about what it will be like 100 years from now and i said i bet they figure out ways to get products/machines to work by listening to our thoughts...this is definitely a step in that direction.
Who is this Norquist guy?
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2012/11/26/anti-tax-champion-norquist-slams-republican-impure-thoughts/
He's the whacko that apparently has the Republican party by the gonads. What a mess!
DeleteImpure thoughts, LOL! Fiscal compromise is a sure thing he cannot circumvent considering the US is on track to become a large energy producer.
DeleteAGCO - Check this one out guys, not sure how it jumped onto my radar but it might be something for consideration with the crazy-ass insider buying?
ReplyDeleteA quick dip to $44.50 might be the ticket?
DeleteI"m concentrating effort on NLY, myself.
CNH - Already delivered the sugar, IMO.
ReplyDeleteBAC - Whoosh, back to $10, what a great stock!
ReplyDeleteAGO - Looks like no breakfast breakout coming.
ReplyDeleteJust woke up. Got this from MOG last night...
ReplyDelete"Hard to tell. The stock tanked because of Davy Jones uncertainty. All indications are they are having problems establishing a commercial flow rate, suggesting reservoir permeability issues despite their denials. Yes, they missed their gas production numbers as well but this stock is trading on net asset value of mega discoveries so any cracks in the value of Davy jones or Blackbeard are stock movers. I would need to listen to Jim Bob on the call to better understand Davy Jones cleanup issues. Clearly the market is doubting their press release spin on DJ well completion problems. They could be a good takeout for majors but not jim bob's style.
I can't believe he is still at it. I am suspect of reservoir quality issues but market has probably reacted prematurely, jury is still out but leaning wrong direction for Mmr"
Another 20% today...wow, looks like we got lucky boyz.
Market doubts the PR spin, if reservoir quality issues actually exist then market isn't premature. Right? Granted the discount could be overdone but MMR isn't exactly making shareholders money right now, is it?
DeleteMMR at 7.45
ReplyDeleteGo get um!
DeleteI think 44% is overdone fear. I can see making half of today's loss (return to the mean).
DeleteDecent risk/reward here and now I have some cushion.
Yeah, be honest CC, you're catching a knife and playing the bounce. You're a knife catcher!
DeleteMMR. We all need documentation of vaccination and/or immunity to measles, mumps and rubella.
DeleteLook ma, no band aides!
DeleteYou mean tetanus, right?
DeleteCP, 44% is a pretty big knock out move, who's left to sell?
DeleteIf you were short you did great, time to switch hats, cover and go long.
Nothing wrong with KNIFE CATCHING, just I thought you weren't a bottom fisher. Okay so you are, BFD! ;)
DeleteIs it knife catching if you play knock outs on a shorter time frame?
Delete44% is insane. It's the classic blood in the streets trade.
Ah, here we go, bouncing off the 20.....time to go.
Um, okay it's not knife catching if you'd rather call it a knockout play instead!
DeleteCP- PXP sold it's working interest in Davy Jones to MMR. I believe they still have a small interest left. They also just levered up bigtime to buy BP's gulf assets.
ReplyDeleteMY understanding is BP has one hell of a well in the gulf, complete with artificial reef.
DeleteYeah, they threw that one in for free. I'm thinking water park!
DeleteSad part is, it's probably empty. But hey, PXP must have a head on their shoulders considering they dumped the DJ dry hole onto MMR, nicely done!
DeleteAGCO - Well, for one thing, the Nov. 19th gap up from $43.50 needs to close.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, I bet this gap fills about the time I'm adding to AGO under $13. Or maybe I get lucky and AGO delivers an afternoon delight while AGCO's delivering on this obligation to shareholders.
Deletef*cking DECK.
ReplyDeletenice trade on MMR.
Z coming back to where my average cost is...nice. i had the DECK in my IRA which frees back up tomorrow.
SLB - Back testing 20SMA support.
ReplyDeleteAccording to Seeking Alpha, uggs were 1 of the top searches for gifts on the block Friday weekend.
ReplyDeleteBut, on the other side, I was talking to my 28 year old daughter today, and she says she's embarrassed to wear UGS in public, and almost certainly won't buy another pair as she can only wear them around the house.
I'm not playing either way. I'm sure you can do well playing this bounce if you are quick enough.
I'm sticking with BB's daughter, I have no idea what these shoes look like so I can't comment myself.
DeleteI do actually wear shoes and can handily identify a pair of Van's.
Remember Sonny Bono's cave man boots? Uggs are those without the fur on top.
DeleteHaha - good description!
DeleteSonny Bono was an putz, so that shoe fits!
DeleteHistory revised....
Delete"The album was a huge hit, selling millions worldwide, and the couple rode the wave, quickly releasing another album the in 1966, entitled The Wonderful World of Sonny and Cher. It was during this year that the couple started to perform internationally, and this was where they created their image of Sonny wearing caveman boots while Cher was barefoot, both of them wearing animal skins.
However, when the 1970’s entered, their album sales declined as fans started to look for other things in music icons. The popular theme was drugs, sex and rock and roll, and the couple’s squeaky clean image and easy listening songs were not what the public wanted anymore. This led to some strain in their relationship, however, a good thing came from this time: Cher gave birth to their son, Chastity Bono."
Uh, Cher gave birth to, what was at that time, a female child named Chastity, although she was as ugly as Sonny. The son thing happened later and his name is now Chaz. I'm completely open to transgender genetics, but I don't think we need to bury the timeline.
GE - Handily moved clear back to $21, that's probably a good indicator however the F'n gap up presents a headache.
ReplyDeleteDD has an interesting gap above it which would require about a 15% rise to fill. Getting a bounce off the bottom now, but, as TOF described yesterday, bottoming patterns usually take time with an undercut of the low to scare out the weak technical traders.
DeleteYeah maybe, I was noticing MEOH looked like it wants to run. Chemicals gaining traction? Okay, DD on a pullback to clean up these charts! Note this didn't immediately happen on the gaps up from June, perhaps this time it does.
DeleteEven so, DD may not have much to give, a drop under 43.01 may not happen?
AAPL - Why the F does this one have to lead the bull by the nose?
ReplyDeleteMMR at 8.20
ReplyDeletehttp://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-great-oil-fallacy-7748
ReplyDelete"if the multi-trillion dollar Iraq war really was a “war for oil,” it was exceptionally ill-advised."
DeleteI thought the wars were over weapons of mass destruction, the criminal event perpetrated by a dozen+ individuals hijacking and flying aircraft into the WTC and Pentagon, etc., prompted renewed interest in national security, thus two unfunded wars were begun. Countless innocent Iraqi citizens along with US soldiers were the immediate casualties.
My impression is the situation in the middle east is more unstable as a result but perhaps it's what needed to happen, the theory of hitting bottom?
Damn. I thought about MMR for quite a while. No guts.
ReplyDeleteJust saw thsi on my Ameritrade app...Citron Research UPdates Zillow Report. Zillow is tanking as a result...and I'm buying. Added some at $24.9.
ReplyDeleteNice!
Deletejust saw this as well:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/zillow-ceo-rascoff-says-housing-through-the-worst-rQh08fVSTZ~JkZ~VHRBxqg.html?cmpid=yhoo
Alright, I'm out of MMR at 8.83. It probably goes back to 11 now.
ReplyDeleteTurning bullish, guys.
ReplyDeleteAwesome trade on MMR, Craig!
ReplyDeleteCraig- Was that one trade or two? Or did you simply open @ 7.45, add @ 8.20, and sell it all @ 8.83?
DeleteTwo trades. I opened the first at 7.45 and sold it at 8.18 when it seemed to bounce off the 20 dma (on a 5 min chart).
DeleteThen it traded sideways and started to rally again so I figured WTF...so entered at 8.20 and sold at 8.83. The 9.00 round number seemed like resistance and I was up about $2700 for both trades. As usual it's never as large a trade as you'd like when you exit but fear is always strong on the entry. There were a couple of pullbacks where I was tempted to run.
Thanks, BB, for a good article this morning about Canadian energy stocks. Since I recently sold most of my PNPFF between $1.14 and $1.28, I think it is time to start buying it now again. So I have just placed a buy limit order for 2000 shares at $0.94, and then more buy limit orders at $0.9, $0.85, and $0.8 for 3000 shares each.
ReplyDeleteTo be clear, I turned bullish prior to the latest spike down. I'm still bullish.
ReplyDeleteLow of day - Why is it I come to check on you guys and happen to catch the low of the day, this isn't very inspiring.
ReplyDeleteMy first buy limit order for PNPFF (2000 shares at $0.94) was just hit. Let's see if my other buy limit orders get hit, allowing me to accumulate more shares at the 7-year low (not counting the panic in the fall of 2008).
ReplyDeleteI saw one of these last night. REALLY nice. Kinda big for a phone, but the way I use it it wouldn't matter...
ReplyDeletehttp://shop.verizonwireless.com/?id=galaxynote2
how do u use it exactly?
DeleteAt home/car/jobsite.etc. The larger size wouldn't bother me, and the screen is amazing. I'd say it's about 30% larger screen.
DeletePretty sure that'll be the next phone I get. Hardly talk on the phone, but do email / internet all the time. Be nice to have the large screen and my brother-in-law has one and says it is not too big to carry around in you pocket. It's like getting a tablet with phone capabilities as opposed to the other way around.
DeleteExactly BB.
DeleteI'm tempted to buy into miners here. But past experience tells me I should wait, as selloffs in that sector tend to last longer and fall further than we expect. If I'm wrong, then it's a missed opportunity. But if I'm right, then I'll be sidestepping a pretty big pothole.
ReplyDeletenow THAT's the YRCW we all know and love.
ReplyDeleteMMR - Here's the lowdown:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-27/mcmoran-s-stumble-at-davy-jones-in-gulf-sends-stock-plunging.html?cmpid=yhoo
Good article, illini. It's easy to think investors are overreacting when there's a 2-day -33% haircut, but we've all seen worse followed by long periods of further decline. As they say, price is the final arbiter. Don't argue with it.
DeleteOkay, so what's dragging us down today?
ReplyDeletePoliticians. Again.
Delete2:45p 'Little progress' made in cliff talks, Reid says
2:48p Stocks at session lows on Reid debt talk report
Unfortunately, I think you should get used to it.
Harry Reid's proclamation of no progress on fiscal cliff. The Mittal meltdown probably didn't help much, either.
DeleteIf Japan is back buying dollars, Nikkei should be up, no?
Stopped out of RIMM today at $11.165. I had just watched a free video Dan Fitzpatrick sends out most day and last night it was on RIMM. He mentioned using the prior day's low as a reference point for a stop so that's how I set it up. I hope I will wait for a proper buy signal to get back in, if one shows up. There was a lot of volume on a big down day so who knows. I see someone over at CC shorted it yesterday.
ReplyDeleteFSLR - if I had been paying attention I probably would have bought more close to $27 but now I'm glad I didn't. It closed $1.00 down from it's intraday high. The chart still looks good to me though so I'll keep watching for an entry.
RGR looks interesting, bumping up against the 52 week high. I'd like to see a pullback for a few days but its on the watch list.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Re, MITK/Misoula...Yes, it appears there is a connection according to the message boards. But it's weird, it seems they maybe gave it away for free and only part of it. Kinda seems like a repeat of RDC.....
ReplyDeleteGuys..You HAVE to listen to the MMR call. Old Jim Bob sounds like he's 10 sec's away from his death bed. Then go to the 18m mark. The frist question is from Leon Cooperman. Priceless!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteWow, VELT got MITKed.
ReplyDeletePKX - Could be, maybe, bottoming here. What the heck happened with Mittal today, something about leaving France due to threats of nationalization?
ReplyDeletewww.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-26/google-joins-apple-in-drawing-french-tax-collectors-indignation.html?cmpid=yhoo
GMCR - Oh so nice, what a beat!
ReplyDeleteGoing to $50, then $60?
DeleteI'd never trade that baby. To much smoke and mirrors.
DeleteThanks for sharing your thoughts on this one.
DeleteSQNM - Still hasn't filled the gap down, but there's a gap up that needs filling now as a result of over enthusiasm.
ReplyDeleteZ- Well, what more can they throw at this one? Anyone have a link to the Citron piece?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteVIA Twitz...
ReplyDeleteGMCR roasts shorts
"I'm tempted to buy into miners here. But past experience tells me I should wait, as selloffs in that sector tend to last longer and fall further than we expect."
ReplyDelete2nd_ave, why not use the strategy that you had used a few years ago -- waiting for an index to become greatly oversold and then starting to scale in gradually? If you wanted to allocate $X to miners now, why not allocate $0.1X now, and then place buy limit orders at progressively better prices for $0.2X, $0.3X and $0.4X? Then, you will actually be *wishing* for the miners to fall further, so that you could get a full load of them.
That's exactly what I have done with PNPFF -- see my post at 11:31am. I have expanded my lowest buy limit order at $0.80 to 5000 shares, since it will make sense to buy progressively more shares as the price becomes better and better.
Very cool. Why don't one of you guys try this out and let me know how it works. I also think his comments on practicing concentration are interesting too.
ReplyDeleteBrain-controlled helicopter takes mental concentration to new heights
http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/23/tech/orbit-brain-controlled-helicopter/index.html?hpt=hp_bn5
wow that is really cool. over dinner last week we were talking about what it will be like 100 years from now and i said i bet they figure out ways to get products/machines to work by listening to our thoughts...this is definitely a step in that direction.
Delete