RYPMX closed up +0.59%. Better than expected, and why I consider 'luck' a major
part of any trading strategy. Half the port was invested, so YTD now +18.4%.
2nd, yes that is corrrect. I'm not sure of the first time I think 10:30 and 4:00 ET.
There are two SP 500 funds that are 2x's that allow this one long and one short and there may be more. It's best to just call and ask as I do not keep up with Rydex much anymore.
Are you Fing kidding me!! FEMA is considering housing Sandy victims in BOATS!! Great, just stack those suckers up next to the rotten/mold ridden trailers left over from Katrina.
"Makes me wonder if PM's will slide a bit the first two weeks of next month, or if the rally (assuming there will be one) begins in advance?"
That's a great thinking, CP. It had also occurred to me that PMs (and equities in general) should slide in the first two weeks of December, since NO Fed money will be injected into the system during that time. Unless, of course, some people will want to front-run the process and start buying PMs a little ahead of time, with their own money.
Yes, I've also noticed buying PM weakness has been a reasonable strategy.
2nd - My conclusion is that silver probably offers more upside than gold if you happen to believe the fwiscal cwiff is simply a load of BS intended to pass a huge giant bill that nobody has read.
Hey Guys - hope everyone has been doing well, been awhile since I poked my head in. Guess Mark mentioned that my career as a futures trader has been put on hold as I move back to Hi Tech. Not sure how long it will last (these guys could be pretty smart and as such it may only take then a day or two to figure out that I'm an old, washed up, idiot) but I will be managing service partners, strategic alliances and channels as well as running the international business for a SAAS CPM firm (host analytics). First time for me in a pre-ipo software company, it will be interesting to see how it compares to ORCL, SAP, etc.
Anyway, I will keep you posted and I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday season.
nice good luck JB. did you ever get that project finished?
mark - i think the level to trade against on YOKU is $15.9ish...really $16.0 just in case. again, i think it ultimately goes way higher because revenue growth is pretty strong.
When you go globetrotting to look for where outperformance is coming from, you will find it in Europe. Drilling down to what industries are outperforming, you will find the insurance, banks, software, capital goods and media.
It took some gymnastics, and a little begging, but I was able to get the new Galaxy Note II hooked up to my old unlimited data plan with VZ. And finally 4G LTE here to boot!!
Added a tiny bit more of AMBS at $0.022. My thinking is this: they have the patent to this MANF thing which apparently is big enough to get the co-founder of Amgen involved as a director/advisor. It's not much for him but I don't think he would associate himself with some pump and dump because he has a reputation to uphold. They recently had a European court uphold its patents on a challenge from Hermo Pharma, another company that got a grat from the Michael J Fox Foundation. I think this validates the patent. Plus, the stock is down 70% from its highs and there's a lot of people pulling out there hair and probably panic selling over getting bamboozled.
ok so i know this is a penny stock but this chart is a buy regardless of whether or not it's $0.02 or $200. there is enough volume going through it to support trading the stock in small positions (i.e., 5-10% of port). Jesse talks a lot about the 10 week moving average...lots of stocks seem to track along these and use them as support/resistance. Stephen Stewart looks only at the weekly charts when basing his decisions and he uses OBV quite a bit. take a look at this chart and ignore the price of the stock:
the risk-reward setup is fantastic. stop yourself out on a close on the weekly chart below $0.018 or so and the upside could be really high...as in $0.10 to $0.12 to even as high as $0.50 on some sort of euphoric spike. the close was right at the 10 WMA and there was a massive "bull snort" in volume on the move up, accompanied by a huge spike in OBV and RSI.
obviously, knowing the fundamentals of how penny stocks work makes me nervous but if i was looking at this and it was a $20 stock I would say it's a screaming buy. i like looking through stephen stewarts picks just to see how they set up relative to the 10 WMA and how their OBV / RSI sets up. good learning experience for how other stocks might act.
Folks, check out the latest video on the ECRI web site (www.businesscycle.com), where Achuthan shows why a recession most likely began in July of 2012.
I think ECRI missed the boat with their recession call this time. They have the reputation as being very good, so I wonder if either a) their models don't accurately handle financial recessions as opposed to traditional recessions or b) if the downturn was so severe this time that it is misreading the followon tremors from this as a new recession.
Tony Dwyer on CNBC this week had a good read on things in my opinion - http://www.cnbc.com/id/50001423
Well, as Achuthan showed, we are almost in a recession already, as 3 of the 4 components officially used by NBER to define a recession (http://recessionalert.com/the-nber-recession-model-project/) are already in a downtrend: Industrial Production, Real personal income less transfers deflated by personal consumption expenditure, and Real retail sales deflated by consumer price index. The only component that is still trending up is Non-farm payrolls, but Achuthan (and Hussman) point out that this is a very volatile lagging indicator, which has been up for at least 6 months when we started half of the post WWII recession. Non-farm payrolls are based on the birth-death model adjustments, and these adjustments are close to 1M jobs per month, MUCH larger than the expected REAL change in jobs every month. So when BLS thinks that we are not in a recession, they use large positive adjustments, which tend to "drown" the real signal, and thus the jobs growth seems positive. A year after the recession has started, when the BLS finally accepts it, they start using negative adjustments, and thus not surprisingly the jobs growth often gets revised to a jobs loss. So, as Achuthan points out, we will conclusively know whether or not the recession started in July 2012 only in the beginning of 2013.
The final game of the fall season for our CYSA team was rained out two weeks ago, and rescheduled for this morning on a field with artificial turf 'rain or shine.' Steady rain, of course. The big guy lofted a penalty kick over opposing heads for a perfect 'net' (if such a thing exists in soccer) to score the first goal of the game, then followed it up several minutes later with a second off a short pass. He was recently switched from mid-fielder to forward, and it seems to fit him. We had to leave the game ten minutes into the second half to make another appointment, but the score was 5-0 at the time.
For those willing to take risks, Dan also said, there are great profits to be made by jumping on an investment bandwagon — so long as you jump off again in time. “You always make the biggest profits on the worst stocks,” he used to say. (It sounds ridiculous. It isn’t.)
This explains a lot about this blog. Fundies based on cash flow, on top of news, insider buying and aquisitions, technical momentum.
As to David's recession post, just look at the chart, esp weekly. The trend is down with a recent pullback. It looks like a reverse check mark.....a chance to re-enter or add to shorts.
Here is an interesting technical piece on the price of silver, which suggests watching the ongoing increase in the open interest in silver futures, since such increases preceded the last 3 bull runs in silver:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Maund/20121126.html
Just imagine how many times higher AUMN will be one year from now, if SLV breaks out above $50/oz as the article suggests and AUMN will expand their production to the annual rate of 2M AgEqOz at the cost below $15/oz, which they expect to do by 4Q/2013.
I am leaving with my family tonight on a 2-week vacation to Dominican Republic, and may not have internet access there. As a preparation for some market volatility, I have a buy limit order for 1K more shares of AUMN at $3.50, in case AUMN follows a "W" recovery pattern. I also have buy limit orders for 3K more shares of PNPFF at $0.85 and for 5K more shares of PNPFF at $0.8 (I currently have 10K shares already at the cost of around $0.9).
Also, I have a bunch of sell limit orders on April $5 AUMN calls between $0.60 and $1.80, which I have acquired between $0.40 and $0.60. So I am ready for anything the market may throw at us over the next two weeks. :)
Good luck, folks, with your investments/trading, and let's hope Bernanke does not disappoint us on December 12 by announcing unsterilized continuation to Operation Twist!
BE CAREFUL!!! I have some friends that just left DR a week ago that told me about corruption surrounding rental cars. There is some extortion and holding those involved until they pay large sums, innocent or not.
Luckily my friends were sailing and the rental was short term and they left w/o incident for Honduras. But they met residents that warned them of this form of corruption.
I'm sure he will be safe, but it is a third world country with long standing corruption. Of course we love to point to other countries and their corruption, which is really small time compared to our own.... They take a few thousand from a tourist and it's widely publicisized, our corrupt bankers steal billions and hardly a word is uttered.
"We've made a lot of friends here in the Dominican Republic but we'll never be back. The theft and corruption here is incredible. The laws are even worse. The police are the biggest thieves and the laws are ridiculous. For instance, if you get into any kind of car accident, even if it's very small and you are not at fault, the police may very well arrest you into "protective custody". Then you go to jail for up to 2 weeks where you have to buy your own food and even pay to go to the bathroom. You'll have to hire an attorney and if you're lucky, you may get out after only several days if the attorney can bribe the right judge and prove that you're innocent. The commandante of the navy that we know here told me that if they just held a gun to your head and demanded all your money, they wouldn't get as much as if they arrest you for any reason at all. As he said, they will bleed you dry!"
Speak for yourself....I was selling into the open on this from Big Dave and the last couple of days of Geoff: "Futures are strong pre-market. For the aggressive, an overbought market gapping higher can be a gift. Look to trade an opening gap reversal should it occur for a high reward to risk trade. You're welcome."
Sold some AUMN, some SLV and traded some MMR after Mark reminded me. It pretty much did what Big Dave said, gapped higher then trailed down all day.
Here's to JB! If I had a bottle of J&B I would make it a double.
ReplyDeletet3d> Are you saying the funds that price twice daily allow you to open/close at two separate times of the trading day?
ReplyDelete2nd, yes that is corrrect. I'm not sure of the first time I think 10:30 and 4:00 ET.
DeleteThere are two SP 500 funds that are 2x's that allow this one long and one short and there may be more. It's best to just call and ask as I do not keep up with Rydex much anymore.
Caveat: it use to be that way, I do not know if things have changed.
DeleteAlright. Closed INTC @ 19.50 for a minor loss.
ReplyDeleteDavid, excellent research into Fed MBS settlement issue. Thanks
ReplyDeleteMakes me wonder if PM's will slide a bit the first two weeks of next month, or if the rally (assuming there will be one) begins in advance?
DeleteTends to make want to be a buyer/holder, plus DEC/JAN very good seasonality.
DeleteAs in Cha Cha Cha.
Tends to make "me"
DeleteAfter hearing Obama's opening ofter, even I'M inclined to jump in.
DeleteJB obtained employment, very nice!
ReplyDeleteAre you Fing kidding me!! FEMA is considering housing Sandy victims in BOATS!! Great, just stack those suckers up next to the rotten/mold ridden trailers left over from Katrina.
ReplyDeleteTOF- You doing any work on YOKU? I'm really interested in this play if AH's reaction holds into the open.
ReplyDeleteno i didn't get a chance to look at it but i know the long term story very well. look at the support levels...that's what i would look at.
Delete"Makes me wonder if PM's will slide a bit the first two weeks of next month, or if the rally (assuming there will be one) begins in advance?"
ReplyDeleteThat's a great thinking, CP. It had also occurred to me that PMs (and equities in general) should slide in the first two weeks of December, since NO Fed money will be injected into the system during that time. Unless, of course, some people will want to front-run the process and start buying PMs a little ahead of time, with their own money.
Yes, I've also noticed buying PM weakness has been a reasonable strategy.
Delete2nd - My conclusion is that silver probably offers more upside than gold if you happen to believe the fwiscal cwiff is simply a load of BS intended to pass a huge giant bill that nobody has read.
Kendra's 11. Do you guys think this will be the last time she wants me to cut her hair? (small tear in eye)
ReplyDeleteProbably not..
DeleteLet's Dance
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=ab9i0s4WEY0&feature=related
Hey Guys - hope everyone has been doing well, been awhile since I poked my head in. Guess Mark mentioned that my career as a futures trader has been put on hold as I move back to Hi Tech. Not sure how long it will last (these guys could be pretty smart and as such it may only take then a day or two to figure out that I'm an old, washed up, idiot) but I will be managing service partners, strategic alliances and channels as well as running the international business for a SAAS CPM firm (host analytics). First time for me in a pre-ipo software company, it will be interesting to see how it compares to ORCL, SAP, etc.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I will keep you posted and I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday season.
nice good luck JB. did you ever get that project finished?
Deletemark - i think the level to trade against on YOKU is $15.9ish...really $16.0 just in case. again, i think it ultimately goes way higher because revenue growth is pretty strong.
Think YUM might hurt it short term?
DeleteGo get'em JB.
DeleteI'm confident you'll do well JB, good luck! Drop in on us occasionally, nice to see a new face once in a while.
DeleteZUMZ..Check this one out.
ReplyDeleteI think the market is going to find it hard to ignore YOKU's revenue growth. It's the Youtube of China. Youtube's valuation is like $40 Billion...
ReplyDeleteSo far it looks great! Good call.
DeleteLater ladies.
Sounds like Boehner went short yesterday.
ReplyDeleteFROM BMO QUANTS - surprising to me:
ReplyDelete When you go globetrotting to look for where outperformance is coming from, you will find it in Europe.
Drilling down to what industries are outperforming, you will find the insurance, banks, software, capital goods and media.
Good to know if true, makes sense Europe should outperform in the aftermath.
DeleteSQNM - Nice, huh? Too bad I gave up on this one!
ReplyDeleteSorta looks like today might wind up being a cliff hanger.
ReplyDeleteBought a little more of the POS penny stock AMBS at $0.024. Let's see how this works out.
ReplyDeleteIt took some gymnastics, and a little begging, but I was able to get the new Galaxy Note II hooked up to my old unlimited data plan with VZ. And finally 4G LTE here to boot!!
ReplyDeleteMan, did YOKU get jacked up just to sell into. Wowza.
ReplyDeletewhat a bar
DeleteAdded a tiny bit more of AMBS at $0.022. My thinking is this: they have the patent to this MANF thing which apparently is big enough to get the co-founder of Amgen involved as a director/advisor. It's not much for him but I don't think he would associate himself with some pump and dump because he has a reputation to uphold. They recently had a European court uphold its patents on a challenge from Hermo Pharma, another company that got a grat from the Michael J Fox Foundation. I think this validates the patent. Plus, the stock is down 70% from its highs and there's a lot of people pulling out there hair and probably panic selling over getting bamboozled.
ReplyDeletepls ignore my typos :)
Deleteok so i know this is a penny stock but this chart is a buy regardless of whether or not it's $0.02 or $200. there is enough volume going through it to support trading the stock in small positions (i.e., 5-10% of port). Jesse talks a lot about the 10 week moving average...lots of stocks seem to track along these and use them as support/resistance. Stephen Stewart looks only at the weekly charts when basing his decisions and he uses OBV quite a bit. take a look at this chart and ignore the price of the stock:
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMBS&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p84584516095
the risk-reward setup is fantastic. stop yourself out on a close on the weekly chart below $0.018 or so and the upside could be really high...as in $0.10 to $0.12 to even as high as $0.50 on some sort of euphoric spike. the close was right at the 10 WMA and there was a massive "bull snort" in volume on the move up, accompanied by a huge spike in OBV and RSI.
obviously, knowing the fundamentals of how penny stocks work makes me nervous but if i was looking at this and it was a $20 stock I would say it's a screaming buy. i like looking through stephen stewarts picks just to see how they set up relative to the 10 WMA and how their OBV / RSI sets up. good learning experience for how other stocks might act.
I had an order in for .020 Did you see the 1M share trade at .0201?
Deleteholy hell look at the setup in VRML. that sucker was the infamous one that ran from $0.01 to $35 in 2009.
ReplyDeleteWow!!!
DeleteRYPMX down -0.93% today? Now you know why my holding periods have averaged 24 hours lately.
ReplyDeleteFolks, check out the latest video on the ECRI web site (www.businesscycle.com), where Achuthan shows why a recession most likely began in July of 2012.
ReplyDeleteCan I do it Sunday night? I'd kinda like to enjoy the weekend.
DeleteI think ECRI missed the boat with their recession call this time. They have the reputation as being very good, so I wonder if either a) their models don't accurately handle financial recessions as opposed to traditional recessions or b) if the downturn was so severe this time that it is misreading the followon tremors from this as a new recession.
DeleteTony Dwyer on CNBC this week had a good read on things in my opinion - http://www.cnbc.com/id/50001423
Well, as Achuthan showed, we are almost in a recession already, as 3 of the 4 components officially used by NBER to define a recession (http://recessionalert.com/the-nber-recession-model-project/) are already in a downtrend: Industrial Production, Real personal income less transfers deflated by personal consumption expenditure, and Real retail sales deflated by consumer price index. The only component that is still trending up is Non-farm payrolls, but Achuthan (and Hussman) point out that this is a very volatile lagging indicator, which has been up for at least 6 months when we started half of the post WWII recession. Non-farm payrolls are based on the birth-death model adjustments, and these adjustments are close to 1M jobs per month, MUCH larger than the expected REAL change in jobs every month. So when BLS thinks that we are not in a recession, they use large positive adjustments, which tend to "drown" the real signal, and thus the jobs growth seems positive. A year after the recession has started, when the BLS finally accepts it, they start using negative adjustments, and thus not surprisingly the jobs growth often gets revised to a jobs loss. So, as Achuthan points out, we will conclusively know whether or not the recession started in July 2012 only in the beginning of 2013.
DeleteThe final game of the fall season for our CYSA team was rained out two weeks ago, and rescheduled for this morning on a field with artificial turf 'rain or shine.' Steady rain, of course. The big guy lofted a penalty kick over opposing heads for a perfect 'net' (if such a thing exists in soccer) to score the first goal of the game, then followed it up several minutes later with a second off a short pass. He was recently switched from mid-fielder to forward, and it seems to fit him. We had to leave the game ten minutes into the second half to make another appointment, but the score was 5-0 at the time.
ReplyDeleteNice!!
Deletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/12-stock-investing-rules-for-the-next-40-years-2012-11-30
ReplyDeleteFor those willing to take risks, Dan also said, there are great profits to be made by jumping on an investment bandwagon — so long as you jump off again in time. “You always make the biggest profits on the worst stocks,” he used to say. (It sounds ridiculous. It isn’t.)
This explains a lot about this blog.
DeleteFundies based on cash flow, on top of news, insider buying and aquisitions, technical momentum.
As to David's recession post, just look at the chart, esp weekly. The trend is down with a recent pullback. It looks like a reverse check mark.....a chance to re-enter or add to shorts.
Here is an interesting technical piece on the price of silver, which suggests watching the ongoing increase in the open interest in silver futures, since such increases preceded the last 3 bull runs in silver:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/ind/Maund/20121126.html
Just imagine how many times higher AUMN will be one year from now, if SLV breaks out above $50/oz as the article suggests and AUMN will expand their production to the annual rate of 2M AgEqOz at the cost below $15/oz, which they expect to do by 4Q/2013.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/12/fiscal-cliff-much-ado-little/
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/02/us-global-economy-idUSBRE8B10DR20121202
I am leaving with my family tonight on a 2-week vacation to Dominican Republic, and may not have internet access there. As a preparation for some market volatility, I have a buy limit order for 1K more shares of AUMN at $3.50, in case AUMN follows a "W" recovery pattern. I also have buy limit orders for 3K more shares of PNPFF at $0.85 and for 5K more shares of PNPFF at $0.8 (I currently have 10K shares already at the cost of around $0.9).
ReplyDeleteAlso, I have a bunch of sell limit orders on April $5 AUMN calls between $0.60 and $1.80, which I have acquired between $0.40 and $0.60. So I am ready for anything the market may throw at us over the next two weeks. :)
Good luck, folks, with your investments/trading, and let's hope Bernanke does not disappoint us on December 12 by announcing unsterilized continuation to Operation Twist!
Have a great trip David!! Sounds like fun.
DeleteBE CAREFUL!!! I have some friends that just left DR a week ago that told me about corruption surrounding rental cars. There is some extortion and holding those involved until they pay large sums, innocent or not.
DeleteLuckily my friends were sailing and the rental was short term and they left w/o incident for Honduras. But they met residents that warned them of this form of corruption.
Been to Punta Cana a couple of times and no problems at all. Mainly stayed at the resort and walked the beach, but never felt unsafe.
DeleteI'm sure he will be safe, but it is a third world country with long standing corruption. Of course we love to point to other countries and their corruption, which is really small time compared to our own.... They take a few thousand from a tourist and it's widely publicisized, our corrupt bankers steal billions and hardly a word is uttered.
Delete"We've made a lot of friends here in the Dominican Republic but we'll never be back. The theft and corruption here is incredible. The laws are even worse. The police are the biggest thieves and the laws are ridiculous. For instance, if you get into any kind of car accident, even if it's very small and you are not at fault, the police may very well arrest you into "protective custody". Then you go to jail for up to 2 weeks where you have to buy your own food and even pay to go to the bathroom. You'll have to hire an attorney and if you're lucky, you may get out after only several days if the attorney can bribe the right judge and prove that you're innocent. The commandante of the navy that we know here told me that if they just held a gun to your head and demanded all your money, they wouldn't get as much as if they arrest you for any reason at all. As he said, they will bleed you dry!"
DeleteMan, those are scary incidents.
DeleteSounds like a great place for masochistic vacationers. Similar to hiking the Iraq/Iran border, another ultimate destination for thrill seekers!
DeleteMACK- Anyone?
ReplyDeleteBueller????
DeleteMMR- Bad news again...
ReplyDeleteDry hole probably?
DeleteIs so, a lot of people would have been very wrong.
DeleteBeen there, I was wrong once too.
DeleteThink I'll go pour an egg-nogg and check back in a few.
ReplyDeleteSQNM - Going past $5 maybe?
MMR - The H&S target was hit, looks like. Head is early August, LS early July, RS November.
ReplyDelete1430 - I guess we're not headed straight there.
ReplyDeletePerhaps we hover around the 50SMA until the fwiscal cwiff issue is resolved or the $40B/month bankster bailouts appear on the beard's books?
Deletewow . MMR is quite the trading vehicle.
ReplyDeletecorrect me if i'm wrong but i believe i sold DECK too early at $35. ahhh such is life!
You could jump on some DELL instead: "Dell higher on big Goldman upgrade"
Deleteyikes. GS upgrading something is the death knell. i'm actually tempted to short RIMM because of that.
DeleteAGO - Looks like a return to high 12's might be the plan, LOL.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Not goin' nowhere soon?
MUX - Might recapture the 200SMA?
ReplyDeleteChina - Last I heard the economic data were improved, must not be spectacular?
ReplyDeleteDeMark gave a buy signal today on China
DeleteWouldn't know it judging by XPP, of course a single day's action can hardly be called a trend.
DeleteSomebody thinks MMR is going to get through....
ReplyDeleteNo doubt this one rallies like an SOB, LOL! ;)
DeleteSaut on bloomberg now
ReplyDeletelikes US best, nothing else much except selected opportunities everywhere.
DeleteOkay, so it kinda looks as if Friday's volume spike may have been a little profit taking.
ReplyDeleteDang, it's almost hot here today, they're forecasting highs in upper 60's all week.
ReplyDeleteIt's really nice, strange weather for us.
alright sold all of my Z at $27.9 I know I'll regret this one too.
ReplyDeleteTrying to remember what Jesse said about how he can tell the market`s doing by the volume of comments on this board - pretty quiet lately.
ReplyDeletei think part of that has to do with mark and me not posting as much any more because we're busy with work :)
Deletebut his argument was that if there were lots of comments then we must be near a bottom. we are after all just a bunch of dumb money!
dumb?...Yes, how can I help you?
DeleteTrue, Jesse hasn't posted in quite a while.
DeleteSpeak for yourself....I was selling into the open on this from Big Dave and the last couple of days of Geoff:
Delete"Futures are strong pre-market. For the aggressive, an overbought market gapping higher can be a gift. Look to trade an opening gap reversal should it occur for a high reward to risk trade. You're welcome."
Sold some AUMN, some SLV and traded some MMR after Mark reminded me.
It pretty much did what Big Dave said, gapped higher then trailed down all day.
new post
ReplyDelete