Thursday, November 8, 2012

11/8/12 Top

Is the US stock market topping? It certainly looks that way. I think it's time to leave indexes behind, and begin trading individual names instead.

54 comments:

  1. So far, MITK would have been the better trade on the panic.

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    1. Yeah, something tells me NSPH will drift around for a couple of years but the technology seems way too promising for something like that to happen.

      Considering the potential, hard to believe NSPH isn't flying. I'm wondering if there's a competitor ready to come along with an equal or better technology.

      These things take time.

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  2. HII - LOL, not doing quite as well following the election.

    I'd like to see a big haircut on this one, to tempt me.

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  3. It's going to be awfully tough for the market until they stop selling AAPL.

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  4. NSPH - Lot's of volume, what's that indicate?

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    1. There are some pretty big block trades going across. Makes me think we will be kinda stuck here.

      GL players.

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  5. http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2012/11/republicans-consider-welcoming-people-who-believe-in-math-and-science.html?mbid=nl_Borowitz%20(48)

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    1. As a first suggestion they should put down their firearms, obtain a globe and study that for awhile, they've got serious catching up to do.

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  6. AGO - Looking pretty good today. Yesterday volume was running on the high side, too.

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  7. NSPH - non-stop selling on this thing every single day.

    Sheesh, is that what makes this one good, what do we really know about it aside from the obvious daily selling?

    Man I hate to sell low, but I'm just not impressed.

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  8. Gold and silver are ignoring the strength in $USD and are both up today. Hence, AUMN has become an even better value now. And so, being a value investor, I just bought 10 more contracts of April $2.50 calls on AUMN, this time at $1.70.

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    1. I'm a perceived value investor. ;)

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    2. Well, I am actually a "value gambler", since a real "value investor" would be buying stocks rather than buying call options on margin. :)

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  9. NSPH - Loaded some at $2.67 and unloaded it at $2.78

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    1. Now CP...You know your broker frowns on you day trading...

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    2. I frown on broker pumpers driving up stocks in order to suck in Muppets.

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  10. As I saw SLV rise above yesterday's high, I decided to buy 10 more contracts of April $5 calls at $0.40. Since I bought 10 such contracts on Monday at $0.45, I decided to lower my first sell limit for such calls to $0.80. My next sell limit is for 20 more contracts at $1.00, and many more are above that: gradually scaling in, gradually scaling out...

    I think AUMN is being held up by poor results from major silver miners (CDE, PAAS) over the past couple of days. However, each company is different, and AUMN has its own story developing. That's not a good reason to hold AUMN back on the day when both gold and silver are up, thus my purchases today.

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    1. PAAS too huh? PAL slipped on a banana peel again as well, they're still talking of gold but now at their Vezza mine, LOL!

      Maybe PAL'll be $1 soon, a target I had some time ago.

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  11. $WTIC - Oil is bouncing today obviously, on it's way to $50

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  12. If coal is bad then solar must be good.

    Starter position in fslr.
    also nibbling on CEF.

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    1. CCC - Can this one help coal be not so bad?

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    2. Calgon, isn't that water treatment?
      Fugly chart though. I'd want it to change direction.

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    3. Coal gasification, I think. Briefly heard something about a newly constructed gasified coal power plant somewhere in north midwest and CCC has a connection of some sort. Here's a guess; maybe this plant burns the waste-product activated coal once it's saturated with VOC's/contaminants and thus now that a disposal source is identified creates increased demand for activated coal in pollution remediation?

      With so much natty, it seems to me like NG turbines would be the least worst solution.

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  13. Replies
    1. Yeah, I saw that. WPRT already warned. Why halt before earnings this AH's?

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  14. I absolutely can not believe the price action in MITK. Unreal.

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    1. Yeah, and I prefer limiting my azz reamings by holding just one POS stock at a time.

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    2. No chit. I guess NSPH should ahve said their business model was broken too.

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  15. Wild shot here. Trying ENPH @ 2.54. Only 4000.

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  16. Could you imagine if you were day trading WPRT with the intent of getting out before earnings today. Wow, good lesson.

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    1. Not to pick on my country, but the Canadian stock regulator (IIROC) is very frustrating in their actions, so when you trade a Canadian stock, there is definitely more risk of this type of stuff happening. I've seen stocks not trade for days on an IIROC halt because of "pending news". One company, Northstar Aerospace, was halted for weeks while they tried to work out their financing.

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    2. Yikes! Weeks, that's crazy.

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  17. CSTR - You guys put this one on the shit list or what?

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  18. AGO - Earnings release soon, div sounds trimmed down a bit.

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    1. Yeah, save dividend. Think earnings should be fine. Investments market was good in Q3 and no real major announcements of municipalities in trouble.

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    2. 5:30 and still nothing - wonder what the holdup is...

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    3. "Third quarter 2012 operating income1 was $166 million, or $0.85 per share"

      The bids moved up in AH, so it must be positive news. Seemed like new business was off slightly, but it's hard to determine if that was due to previous credit derivative credits.

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  19. Really surprising the sale of KYAK so soon after the IPO.

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  20. Pretty happy with the closing price in NSPH today. That being said, I bet we head lower.

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    1. Yeah, just watch MACD on the daily chart, I guess.

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  21. closed out my ACI position. I'm all outta coal. I was thinking about keeping it but I decided to just close it out and watch.

    UGS traded down so no trade there.

    Just watching. I'm tempted to buy some AAPL for a trade.

    Now I'm thinking about buying a gun, 9 MM or .38? thx CP

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  22. These guys send out a free daily article that some of you energy fundamental guys may find interesting.

    http://www.rbnenergy.com/

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  23. CP, from Seekingalpha:


    AGO
    5:47 PM Assured Guaranty (AGO): Q3 EPS of $0.85 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $166M misses by $18M. (PR) [Earnings, Financials] Comment!

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    1. You can also go to their website where they have quite detailed info on their financials. Some of it is fairly complex, but:

      a. You know they understand their business
      b. they have a plan to address their major issues
      c. trends are moving in the right directions
      d. their historical record is quite good

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    2. I have .73 GAAP v. .72 view.

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